WW CXXXV-Dragonball Z - Saiyans Win

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Quadruple dola! Is that some sort of Dragonball bonus?

If you post seven times in a row you get to make a wish.

[CrimsonFox]

RRRRRRRRR RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR RRRRRRRRRRR THIS MAKES ME Mad MAD MAAAAAAAAAAAAAAD!....well not that mad

[CrimsonFox]

Me think Niccus innocent now. Me think Autumn guilty as hell with his feeble excuses. First bogus no lynch excuse, then bogus niccus excuse. Earn maximum bogusocisitude. Me will vote Autumn. I think he partner with chubby very possible or someone else hidden from eyes, quiet of soul. *kicks a cow, then punches Narcizo again*

[CrimsonFox]

hmmmm never mind about chubby stuff. Just read his words of wisdom on this page. Me no think guilt of him now. Rrrrrrrrrrrrrrr wolvsies make Z warrior sleepy. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz....

[The Jackal]

Well that's a shame on Darth. I wanted to put pressure on him originally so he'd have to post some.. He needs to know he can't just join games and not post until day three though.

I'm pretty tired so I have to think about the movement that went on tomorrow, if I'm still around to give my input.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Zinto

If you post seven times in a row you get to make a wish.

Don't encourage CF..

[The Jackal]

FWIW my first reaction to the Niccus stuff is that he didn't realize what he was doing as opposed to he's a wolf making errors, but I have no idea if he's played WW elsewhere before or not, he did say this was his first game. This is a game where we can't waste a day making sure we know the allegiance of the other party in a D1 lynch, so I'm gonna have to look more closely at his posts before I'd definitely go that route.

[CrimsonFox]

JACKAL prepare you self to fight! ME CHALLENGE YOU! ME CHALLENGE YOU FOR RUINING MY WISH!

HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLEgfAGTeUQ

I will thrash you for ruining my wish. *punch kick pimpslap crotchkick*

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

JACKAL prepare you self to fight! ME CHALLENGE YOU! ME CHALLENGE YOU FOR RUINING MY WISH!

HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLEgfAGTeUQ

I will thrash you for ruining my wish. *punch kick pimpslap crotchkick*

Wat is this?

[CrimsonFox]

It is honorable battle. Me fight Jackal like warrior of z

[Autumn]

Even if CF is a wolf I'm tempted to keep him around all game just for this.

[Autumn]

CF, if you can speak clearly for a second, what do you mean about my "feeble Niccus excuse"? I can imagine what you mean about the no lynch.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

It is honorable battle. Me fight Jackal like warrior of z

Honorable battle? Oh shit, I think I confused Dragonball Z with Digimon. And I'd wondered why were weren't just playing a Pokemon themed game.

[CrimsonFox]

LOL! mckerney wins the thread.

[mckerney]

Bulbasaur, go!

[Zinto]

You read my mind since I was debating on a Dragonball, Digimon, or Pokemon themed game.(Minus the Digimon since I forgot everything about the show)

[CrimsonFox]

Team Fox blast off at the speed of light. Surrender now or prepare to fight.

[Zinto]

After a good night’s rest all of the Z-Warriors leave there tents to see the body of Goku lifeless in the middle of the camp. A sense of sorrow rushes over everyone and many began to cry. The scene causes a few of the Z-Warriors to whisper of their impending defeat since what are they to do without their strongest warrior.



Hearing these murmurs causes Piccolo to look around him and yell “We are Earth’s remaining hope we must find those responsible and stop them from destroying the Earth. Goku would be disgusted by the way you are all acting.”


With that the Z-Warriors shook their sadness and knew there would be time to mourn later. Now they must exact revenge on those who killed their leader.


Chubby was Goku.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Looking at the vote history I find the most interest in Mckerney and Niccus adding a one two punch to Darth. This helped establish Darth well ahead of Niccus, making me think Niccus the most likely wolf out of the suspects so far tonight. I hate to vote a new guy but Mckerney's got no votes.

UNVOTE MAUBOY1
VOTE NICCUS

this lame excuse. Lots of excuses within an excuse. And the no lynch push and explanation for it just sounded longwinded and fishy.

[Zinto]

Day Two begins!

[mckerney]

Well that sucks.

[mckerney]

So, anyone have any ideas where to start for today?

[CrimsonFox]

Crimsonfoxumon digivolve into DANNYMON!

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Crimsonfoxumon digivolve into DANNYMON!

I can't allow that to happen. Magikarp, splash attack!

[CrimsonFox]

VOTE AUTUMN-MON

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

this lame excuse. Lots of excuses within an excuse. And the no lynch push and explanation for it just sounded longwinded and fishy.

This is in fact a cogent argument, not an excuse, and one that so far rings true. Care to explain why you don't agree with it? Because that would be a lot more useful.

[Autumn]

In addition, besides explaining why you don't like my reasoning, explain what my vote move was an excuse for? You're saying mauboy is a wolf? Or darth was? I didn't need an excuse to move my vote unless one of those was true (and we know one wasn't). You're not making much sense to me CF.

[Autumn]

Anyway, the wolves saved us some work by taking out Chubby, whose lastminute move looked fishy. I'll take a look at vote history in the morning to see if anything stands out. With Chubby good, and theother later changes taking heat away from Darth, it seems more likely we were villager-villager.

[Darth Vilus]

Sorry i never posted guys, totally slipped my mind. I would've been lynched anyways though because i was working all day. At least i wasn't a big loss ;-)

[Narcizo]

You guys suck. So we have to hit a baddy or hope the wolves inadvertendly kill the sorceror today or we're screwed. Yeah the wolves had more voting power with fewer villagers but, you know, there's only two of them, and if one of them votes to save the other then we get that information to use tomorrow, if we no lynch. So we have information from yesterday and today to use. Now all we have is yesterday's information. So now we've got all the useful information we can hope for from the game to help us find the first baddy - there's no more voting to get information.

If the seer has a non-dead scan then he needs to come out with it, wolf or non-wolf.

[Narcizo]

#45 03:11 Narcizo votes Darth Vilus (1)
#57 04:11 Narcizo unvotes Darth Vilus (0)
#58 04:29 Crimson votes Darth Vilus (1)
#61 04:47 Narcizo votes mckerney (1)
#70 09:16 Autumn votes No Lynch (1)

#111 12:40 Autumn unvotes No Lynch (0)
#112 12:44 Autumn votes mauboy (1)
#113 12:46 Chubby votes Niccus (1)
#114 12:50 Packer votes mauboy (2)
#116 13:10 Packer unvotes mauboy (1)
#118 13:17 Jackal votes Darth Vilus (2)
#138 16:18 Narcizo unvotes mckerney (0)
#138 16:18 Narcizo votes No Lynch (1)

#146 16:39 mauboy votes Niccus (2)
#150 18:07 Packer votes Mauboy (2)
#152 18:29 mckerney votes Darth Vilus (3)
#153 18:58 Niccus votes Darth Vilus (4)
#160 20:17 Autumn unvotes mauboy (1)
#160 20:17 Autumn votes Niccus (3)

#167 21:13 Packer unvotes Mauboy (0)
#167 21:13 Packer votes Niccus (4)
#170 21:44 Niccus unvotes Darth Vilus (3)
#170 21:44 Niccus votes Mauboy (1)
#175 21:48 Niccus unvotes mauboy (0)
#175 21:48 Niccus votes Darth Vilus (4)
#176 21:48 mckerney unvotes Darth Vilus (3)
#176 21:48 mckerney votes Niccuc (5)
#179 21:51 Chubby unvotes Niccus (4)
#179 21:51 Chubby votes Darth Vilus (4)

Darth Vilus - Crimson (58) The Jackal (118) Niccus (174) Chubby (179)
Niccus - Mauboy(146) Autumn (160) PackerFanatic (167) McKerney (176)

No Lynch - Narcizo(138)

No Vote - Darth Vilus

[Narcizo]

First place to look is at Niccus today. If he isn't a wolf then you've guys have pretty much wasted a seer view, and limited the amount of information we can get before we have to lynch a baddy. Not that I'm holding a grudge or anything.

I don't see a wolf, newbie or no, voting himself into the lead like that. I guess an experienced wolf wanting to play up his newbie-ness might advise him to make that move to try and get trust in the last 15 minutes of the lynch. That would tie in with Chubby being night killed, to show that it was a good person who saved Niccus. (I forgot to blue Chubby in his last votes). If Niccus is bad though the other wolf has to know that it will be easy to pin a lynch on Chubby if Niccus is ever revealed as bad. Easiest explanation is that it is a newbie mistake though and not one that any wolf is likely to make.

For the moment I think there's better candidates than Niccus. If this was all a cunning move to get trust yesterday and today then kudos to Niccus or whoever else came up with the idea.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Looking at the vote history I find the most interest in Mckerney and Niccus adding a one two punch to Darth. This helped establish Darth well ahead of Niccus, making me think Niccus the most likely wolf out of the suspects so far tonight. I hate to vote a new guy but Mckerney's got no votes.

UNVOTE MAUBOY1
VOTE NICCUS

Presuming Niccus and mckerney were wolves then surely the correct wolf play would be for either mckerney or Niccus to vote for mauboy to force another candidate out there rather than cut it down to a two-horse race, with Niccus being one of the candidates. I agree that Niccus' vote for DV wasn't optimal from a village point of view but I think it's a stretch to portray it as a sign of mckerney and niccus being wolf-buddies.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'm not following why you think we only have two lynches. We have three lynches to nail a wolf.

No we don't, unless the sorceror is killed. If we lynch a villager and the wolves kill a villager tonight then the numbers are 3:2+1. A wolf throws in a immediate vote on a villager. Unless he puts it on the sorceror we've pretty much lost. Obviously they're going to have to be coy about it because they don't want to risk exposing themselves with a vote on the sorceror, so there's a chance that it could go awry for the wolves but you've got to think the chances are pretty good that they win under those circumstances. So I suggest that if we don't hit a bad role today in the lynch every villager try to vote their best candidate as quickly as possible following the night kill. Then we can argue about it and try to work out whose vote looks the best.

[Narcizo]

Anyway, I should probably do some work. I'm doubtful about Autumn (probably because I hold him to a high standard) but I want to go over yesterday to decide if that doubt is justified. At the moment Crimson isn't giving us anything but role-play. I want a bit more from him.

Vote CrimsonFox

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So I suggest that if we don't hit a bad role today in the lynch every villager try to vote their best candidate as quickly as possible following the night kill. Then we can argue about it and try to work out whose vote looks the best.

Incidentally this is probably the real reason why there are no even number small games on BGG - it can easily come down to a question of who casts the first vote (or the last vote, using their standard method) first.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Unless he puts it on the sorceror we've pretty much lost.

Duh! I'm an idiot. It doesn't matter if the wolves vote for the sorceror on day three under these circumstances. They win anyway. The sorceror will just self-vote. We need to think about voting no lynch today again. Not as optimal as voting it yesterday but if we miss in this lynch then we've lost unless the wolves night kill the sorceror. Who's feeling confident about hitting a bad guy in today's vote?

The advantage with a no lynch is that I suspect the wolves are going to get a pretty similar read on the seer and sorceror so there's a chance they kill the seer but there's also a chance that they kill the sorceror, giving us more breathing room. If we lynch a villager today then they just need to make sure they don't kill the sorceror, get an early vote in and they've won.

[Narcizo]

I'm shooting for the Danny Dola record here. Hope Crimson doesn't turn up to ruin it all.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

If the seer has a non-dead scan then he needs to come out with it, wolf or non-wolf.

Bit hasty of me there. The seer needs to think about whether he should reveal his scan or let us think about no lynch. If he got a wolf then he should reveal, obviously.

Let's see. We're currently sitting at 2:1:5

Assuming the seer got a village read on someone who isn't Chubby a reveal will leave us 2:1:3(+2 clear)/2:1:4(+1 clear if sorc scanned). The sorceror muddies the water if he was scanned but there you go.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Zinto

If you post seven times in a row you get to make a wish.

What happens if you manage 10, no make that 11, times in a row?

[Narcizo]

Vote analysis is kinda tough because I took myself out of contention and because we don't know if Niccus is good or bad. As it goes I'm probably going to have to presume that he's good. For me this kind of suggests that mckerney is good as I don't think a wolf or a sorceror moves their vote at that late a stage and risks being seen as the last player to vote for someone who turns up villager.

I think Autumn has been a bit shaky in his arguments, the one about us having three days to lynch a wolf in particular, but I think he's a confused villager (like myself) rather than more evil intentions.

If we're villager-villager then I think we'll find a wolf in the people who don't move their votes. I can maybe see Niccus being a sorceror, afraid to commiting to a vote that could potentially kill a wolf and then realising he has to commit to it anyway. I don't think he's a wolf though.

At the moment I'm leaning towards the wolves being among Jackal, Packer, Mauboy or Crimson. The same argument about not moving a vote can be made against me but luckily I know I'm a good guy. And that was an awful lot of work by me yesterday for a concept that could a) easily have got me lynched and b) remains uncertain whether it benefits the wolves or villagers. Apparently. (although i disagree about that). I get a dodgy feeling about Packer but I'm starting to think that he's my new Daddy Torgo because I always get that.

Happy enough keeping my vote where it is at the moment. Don't want us to get totally derailed wondering about no lynch again, so I'll shut up about that. Just remember that it's a possibility if we want to extend the game by one more day.

[Narcizo]

So why Chubby then? I don't see any hint that he had a special role this time. I think we might consider that the wolves discounted a number of people from being the seer and then just picked from the remaining pile but they still picked Chubby over some other people. Because they didn't think he was the sorceror (Quote: "I can't remember if the sorc knows the wolves or not") and was, therefore, a safer kill target? Or is it some sort of attempt to steer the vote as well.

Chubby was going after Niccus for a long time and then started in on Packer and mckerney. I've detailed the possibility that Niccus is a wolf and the wolves want to show that he was saved by a villager to clear him a bit. Or it could be to set Niccus up. Otherwise you might read it as protecting or trying to set up packer or mckerney, depending on your flavour of poison.

I guess another possibility is that both wolves are on Niccus and they want to narrow the field on those on Darth Vilus so we feel like we should be looking at them. But meh! Who knows what they were thinking.

[Autumn]

The kill on Chubby is interesting to me as well, as it seems to clear the air in terms of any voting mystery. If they had left him alive, either he or Niccus would have been the main candidates today. Which seems like it would benefit the wolves. You can argue, as Narcizo does, that maybe Niccus *is* a wolf and so they wanted to clear that air. But if Niccus was a wolf they'd have to expect a very high probability he was scanned and found out, so they'd want to leave Chubby there to take the blame. I have to think they were role hunting and read something into him.

Narcizo, I still think yo'ure overstating the dire situation we're in. You seem to be assuming the sorceror will have any idea who the wolves are, or the wolves vice versa, in voting. If we're down to 4:2 with the sorceror alive, he still doesn't know where to vote unless they out themselves.

You're also assuming the seer never reveals. If we got to 4:2 with the seer alive, he reveals two scans and the wolves are pretty much done. That third lynch is very much a part of the game, not a foregone conclusion.

[Autumn]

As far as vote analysis for today, I'm leaning towards thinking Niccus is good. I can't see the wolves killing Chubby if he isn't.

Narcizo unfortunately has left us with nothing but a no lynch vote to judge him by. As I mentioned earlier I think it was important to at least cast a pretend vote along with the no lynch to give us a sense.

CF isn't making himself look good. He votes yesterday with an early vote that turns out to be the tiebreaker that kills a villager. He then follows up last night with an immediate vote on me. Why his insistence on having the first (and thus tiebreaking) vote? With no analysis behind his voting, I think I would find that suspect even if he wasn't pointing fingers at me.

PackerFanatic I believe had a late vote change with no explanation, despite being asked for one. That doesn't sit well.

Mckerney I hold as suspect only if Niccus is bad. I think if one of them turns up wolf we have to look at the other. If Niccus is not bad then I don't see Mckerney moving his vote the way he did as a wolf.

Mauboy I don't have any read on, he's doing the "hey going to catch up on things" style posting it seems to me. He got several votes yesterday yet never quite caught on.

The Jackal I don't have a great read on, but he's been involved in the discussion at least and helpful, while not doing anything suspicious.

[Autumn]

That leaves me with PackerFan, Mauboy and CF as my top suspects. Narcizo despite his non-vote hasn't struck me as wolfy enough to vault him up there. I will look back at posts to see if I see anything else from these three.

[Autumn]

Oh I take that back, I think I had PackerFan's vote mixed up with mckerney's in my mind. PackerFan at least gives a bit of a hint why he moved his vote, though he doens't really explain it. Mckerney moved his without explanation at all.

Mckerney, why did you move your vote last night (sorry if I missed your explanation).

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Narcizo, I still think yo'ure overstating the dire situation we're in. You seem to be assuming the sorceror will have any idea who the wolves are, or the wolves vice versa, in voting. If we're down to 4:2 with the sorceror alive, he still doesn't know where to vote unless they out themselves.

Seriously? You think the village has a chance if it's 3:2+1? The wolf votes as soon as possible and then they just have to convince the sorceror to vote with them. By, for example, saying "I'm the wolf. Come vote with me and we're sorted." Or,why not have the sorceror self-vote immediately after dawn. Last game I wasn't sure if there were one or two wolves left on day three. Had I known there were two wolves he would have self-voted immediately. A second seer scan really doesn't matter. He could have hit a wolf for all they care, it's not going to make any difference unless he gets the PM that tells him he's hit a wolf and manages to vote before the sorceror drops his self-vote.

Sorry Autumn - I don't believe you even think about arguing this if you're a villager. I'm still open to no lynch voting but otherwise.

unvote Crimson
Vote Autumn

[Autumn]

So now you're voting me because i don't agree with you? Yes, a classic wolf move, not agreeing with Narcizo.

All I can say is, yes you make great points ... that hte wolves or sorceror might not have thought about if you hadn't brought them up. Most players of this game are not as strategic or as thoughtful as you. I consider myself a fairly good player, but i hadn't thought of all fo those strategies. I suppose you're right that if one of hte sorceror or wolves gets the tiebreaker vote out, they should be all set, but that hadn't occurred to me. And I don't think it necessarily would have happened (though I now expect a day three race to see who votes first).

And now that that's out there, and everyone rushes to vote first, how is anyone to know who the first voter allies with? Maybe it's a Danny move, a villager pretending to be a wolf?

I think you're reducing the possible plays much more than they need to be. A lot of things could still happen. Less now that you've spelled out the best play, but still a lot of things.

[PackerFanatic]

Sorry for not getting back on last night and explaining myself. Ended up having to do some work that went past deadline.

The reason for my vote switch was because my vote was sitting in no-mans land. I did not want to make it seem like I was just throwing my vote away, but I did not feel that DV was a wolf, so I went with Niccus (even though at the time, DV would have won the tiebreaker - I was hoping he would get on to vote)

[PackerFanatic]

The kill on Chubby pushes Niccus to the good in my eyes, at least for today.