Snakebitten: A Real-Time MP FOF thread

[QuikSand]

Okay, I have said that I don't expect much in free agency. That's nominally true, but we do have several signings this stage -- nothing earth shattering, but still worth noting here.

The most interesting to me is signing veteran RB Julio Henson, away from the defending AFC #1 seed Patriots. So, why would we be spending $9m/yr on a 45/45 rated running back, when we just traded for and extended our 75/75 rated RB1 Brody Carpenter?

Well... (#WarnerWolfVoice) let's go to the video tape (/Wolf).

Last season, our guy Carpenter was our main ball carrier, and posted 273-1166 for 4.27 ypc and 8 TD. A decent season.

The last two seasons, also as the RB1 for a winning team, Henson averaged 198-1098 for 5.5 ypc and 13 TD. That's great.

Now... the Patriots were not even in the bidding for this guy. So, it very well could be that they just feel they have a plug-and-play system that will turn their RB1 into a stats horse. Definitely a possibility, I claim no deep insight into game planning in general, especially for the running game.

But...Henson does have one thing. A standout rating, and it's in the right place - 97 Hole Recognition. Sprinkle in a 64 Breakaway and a slightly higher endurance than Carpenter... and maybe that makes the obviously lesser guy the better guy, at least for purposes of toting the rock on first and ten. I don't know, but with cap space to spare, I will take this risk. The real risk is when we get to the once-a-season (here) decision on who gets the ball. Do I take a third of the workload away from my two horses and give it to this low-rated ratings stud? Perhaps I do, indeed.

Less interesting signings...

Two defensive linemen, both auditioning for a marginal role. 8th year Bryan Palazzo is decent, good enough to play, but the role for him might be marginalized by emerging youngsters -- our 2nd round draftee above and last year's top pick LB Upshaw are both contenders to claim meaningful playing time this year. DT Lester Miller is a fill-in with no chem connection, a longshot to land here. Both are on $5m/yr deals with no carrying charge.

6th year LB Bennett Cooley will play, but never be a star, I don't expect. He's a 6th year do-it-all-fairly-well guy who will fit with our chemistry -- basically the only guy fitting that bill that I could find. We are going to lose veteran LB Caden Matthews this year (happiness management oversight), and have some aging drift there anyhow, so he should be a 5-year contributor, likely a 70-tackle sort of guy at SILB, I'd guess right now.

We grabbed a couple young affinity OL, but neither have starts so they will be bubble guys for us. I don't see any starts at OL opening up for us anytime soon, and if we're a contender (we should be thinking that way) then I don't want to fiddle around too much with starting roles in a one-shot league.

[QuikSand]

Background note... the AI J-E-T-S JetsJetsJets decided to sign our former backup QB Avery Linquist. He was actually pretty decent for a backup, rated 47/47 by my scout. We kept him around on a minsal deal, but the AI doesn't understand this is a zero-injury league, so they paid him $8m/yr with real bonus money to ride the pine behind theie $40m mediocre starter. Unless they were t follow up by cutting their starter, this makes no sense. So it goes.

I knew this was coming, and groomed a youngster to step in. Andres Carver is a runaround guy (76 ScrFrq) signed after last year's draft who bumped +6 in camp last season and has ratings just barely good enough to give him a glimmer of hope of being our next starter. He's a double affinity for us (in the target 5-6 group like Irving) so he's a great fit... only weakness is a relatively weak personality. My kind of dude, though... I just hope he doesn't get big ideas about being a star after this year sitting on the bench.

[QuikSand]

My 4th round pick is coming up, but at this point I am pretty close to being done for this offseason. I typically do not draft in later rounds for "need" other than specialists (P/K/PR/KR,gunner, etc), so let's have a look at where we are:

QB set for next 3 years
RB overloaded, maybe, quandary with carries
WR overloaded
TE set with Flowers/Falkenberg
OL set for now, seeking 6th/7th guys for chem/development

P set
K set for now, open to improvement though

DE we are thin, but counting on youngsters to build out from star Hancock
DT fine with Broomfield, Wooden, rookie
ILB fine for now Richardson, Cooley, Strickland, McCarthy maybe re-sign Emerson
OLB Lincoln great but low end, Osborne great but may be sliding to DE, we're thin (will rotate in ILB guys above)
CB decent 5 guys, but they'd be a ton better behind a true #1 guy
S thin with Shireman suddenly my most reliable guy, Dennis is ok

So, basically we should be looking for a quality addition at CB, C, OLB, or maybe DE. On offense, with our new youngsters at WR and a tricky RB situation, we are basically all set to continue as the perennial 5,000 yard pass attack.

I cannot find the guy I want to commit long term money toward, so this offseason will mostly be about re-signings and continuity. I am pursuing a free agent safety, but not with any serious vigor, and could easily get outbid, which would be fine. Past that, the lineup above is basically where we're going to be for this year to defend our improbable title.

[QuikSand]

End of round 4, we swing a minor deal to grab pick 4.31 from Washington (next year's 5th and 6th go in the trade), to land a couple of affinity guys who look intriguing for this year:

DE Keith Hoover posted a great bench at the combine, has a near-max PRStr, and little else going for him, save for my scouting assessment as "underrated" - what's the upside there? Beats me. Affinity DE fodder.

QB Gino Bush has a little bit of this and that, and should give us an affinity camp arm this year. If there's more to it than that, great. He's the guy we effective traded to get, I'm okay with that. Non-affinity late round rookies are of little value to me, and I pretty rarely hit on somebody of major importance, so dealing a 5 and a 6...whatevs.

[Pyser]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Okay, I have said that I don't expect much in free agency. That's nominally true, but we do have several signings this stage -- nothing earth shattering, but still worth noting here.

The most interesting to me is signing veteran RB Julio Henson, away from the defending AFC #1 seed Patriots. So, why would we be spending $9m/yr on a 45/45 rated running back, when we just traded for and extended our 75/75 rated RB1 Brody Carpenter?

Well... (#WarnerWolfVoice) let's go to the video tape (/Wolf).

Last season, our guy Carpenter was our main ball carrier, and posted 273-1166 for 4.27 ypc and 8 TD. A decent season.

The last two seasons, also as the RB1 for a winning team, Henson averaged 198-1098 for 5.5 ypc and 13 TD. That's great.

Now... the Patriots were not even in the bidding for this guy. So, it very well could be that they just feel they have a plug-and-play system that will turn their RB1 into a stats horse. Definitely a possibility, I claim no deep insight into game planning in general, especially for the running game.

But...Henson does have one thing. A standout rating, and it's in the right place - 97 Hole Recognition. Sprinkle in a 64 Breakaway and a slightly higher endurance than Carpenter... and maybe that makes the obviously lesser guy the better guy, at least for purposes of toting the rock on first and ten. I don't know, but with cap space to spare, I will take this risk. The real risk is when we get to the once-a-season (here) decision on who gets the ball. Do I take a third of the workload away from my two horses and give it to this low-rated ratings stud? Perhaps I do, indeed.

He's a good player, but I'm cash strapped. I have no idea if it's my system or what, but Henson was just as good as all the other RB's I've plugged in there lately (including Banks who I stole from you, who went 243-1291 and 10 td's in his only season with us before volatility did his thing and he was cut and retired).

Plus I grabbed this guy in the 4th, who will probably give us the same thing: 2073 Draft Thread - Page 17

Love this thread by the way.

[QuikSand]

Wow, I literally just came here from the RFL draft thread to post the same thing... you basically just drafted the same RB with your 4th rounder, to replace the RB we poached for fairly big money in free agency. Yup.

[QuikSand]

And by the way, RB Reed is a chem match for us, and was pretty high on my draft list for round 4, but I moved him down after signing your guy.

[QuikSand]

In rounds 3 and 5 of the draft, I take stabs at guys who could step into some role in the secondary, where we are deep with the decent, but missing the mainstay. Not really the best situation.

3rd rounder - zone guy with big KR skill, that seems useful
2073 Draft Thread - Page 13

5th rounder - likely a move to SS, and if he's nonzero everywhere, gets a look?
2073 Draft Thread - Page 21

[QuikSand]

Wrapping up the draft...

Round 6 - a Syracuse kicker (sort spot)

Round 7, Mr. Irrelevant - Weird-bars LB - too light to be a pass rusher, but that zone bar and high dev % said take a stab

[QuikSand]

In free agency, no big news, but a couple risk-free signings:

S Matthew Knauls, a guy I actually signed a couple years ago and wrote about then... well, our DB situation is changed, and he might have a shot to stick and play. Oddly, he's coming off a pretty effective year, despite seeming to have no ability to cover anybody in any style of defense. Hmmmmm.

Also, LB Brendan Franklin joins up as a $5m cut-friendly guy, who likely moves to the inside and gets some real playing time. It's like not love, but this is the sort of guy who makes up the midsection of my teams, really... somebody cut/ignored him once it became clear he wasn't going to be a real star, and decided to keep their stiff 6th round pick instead. Now he lands with me, where he's a fit for chem and for need, and in all likelihood he'll play enough to hold out after a couple of seasons. 75+ RunD, fully developed, and great chemistry...all well within our spending capacity? Yes, please.

[QuikSand]

So, I posted a trade block for RB Brody Carpenter. No idea what interest it might fetch. This reveals a weakness in this real-time-thread concept.

One motivating factor, which seems trivial, is that my cohesion-hub RB is angry about playing time, so I cannot extent him. In a perfect world, I'd slot him for starts this year, likely work him back to being amenable to a new deal, and re-up with him for one more free agent contract. But, right now with 3 capable RB on the roster ahead of him, getting him starts is dicey - at least costs us an active roster spot, as well as the starts themselves, which I really don't want to sacrifice. So... that would be one more small argument for getting some value from the trade-able guys Carpenter, and going with a two-man rotation instead of him as chair of a three-back committee.

[QuikSand]

In the last stage of early free agency, I make a speculative move - one that I didn't expect to work out, but it did.

LB Kenny Fernandez

So... he's interesting in multiple ways. He might not stick on the roster at all, but if he does...

-he's got enough pass rushing potential to make me intrigued about getting him slotted as a pass rusher, despite his fairly diminutive size

-he's got enough coverage skill where I could even consider foregoing the pass rushing skill and instead using him as a safety, potentially asking him to drop pounds and shift over

-most weird for me, he's a massive affinity centerpiece, so for the moment he takes the chemistry lead away from LB McCarthy (who's a 7-8 guy with a 95 personality), but who seems to have picked a bad time to be stubborn (he's grouchy about playing time, and just turned down a second three-year extension offer)

I need to sort out what the chem setup would look like with Fernandez as our D7 leader. He's an 11-12 guy, so he'd be in the right group... I know it would drop out young DE Hancock (who is also an 11-12 guy) and who fits squarely into my long term plans... but I haven't yet sorted out what else might connect with a shift like this. A 7th year leader with 95 leadership and 99 personality who looks good enough to play a lot would be much easier to build around than McCarthy and his various quirks. We'll see.

(I even signed an old friend, LB Robert Lester, as a spec pickup in case Fernandez keeps the leaderhsip role, and makes him a match)

[QuikSand]

So, if we keep LB Fernandez as our D7 leader, here's who would likely make the team, with depth of affinity the last number shown (5=Exceptional):

DE 1 Hoover 5
DE 10 Matthews 5
DE 7 Rawlings? 3
DE 3 Hancock! X
DT 8 Palazzo 5
DT 1 Samolis 5
DT 8 Wooden 5
DT 7 Broomfield X

LB 11 Strickland 5
LB 9 McCarthy 5
LB 12 Shapiro X
LB 7 Fernandez Ldr
LB 7 Lincoln! X
LB 11 Hillenbrand 5
LB 6 Lester 3

So, that's not bad, really. Not sure we would carry 15 players along the D7, but this would be the universe, with a few guys on their way out soonish anyway due to age. But we're weak with my top two young "core" guys plus Broomfield whom we just extended, and I don't like that. That is the main weakness here.

If we cut/shift Fernandez and leave McCarthy as the leader, here's the lineup instead:

DE 1 Hoover 5
DE 10 Matthews 5
DE 7 Rawlings? 3
DE 3 Hancock! 5
DE 5 Harvey 3
DT 1 Samolis 5
DT 8 Wooden 5
DT 7 Broomfield 5

LB 4 Richardson? 5(potential)
LB 11 Strickland 5
LB 9 McCarthy Ldr
LB 6 Cooley 4
LB 12 Shapiro 5
LB 7 Lincoln! 5

Okay...the vibe with our most important players ratings-wise makes this the right way to go. Needed to walk through it to test it out, and that was the main idea with the no-risk signing. I think we need to leave McCarthy in as our leader there, and re-sign him now, while he's content with playing time.

[Squirrel]

LOL at the chess notation

[tzach]

This is one of my favorite threads, and a must read for anyone wanting to go the chemistry route for building a perennial contender.

[Pyser]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So, if we keep LB Fernandez as our D7 leader, here's who would likely make the team, with depth of affinity the last number shown (5=Exceptional):

DE 1 Hoover 5
DE 10 Matthews 5
DE 7 Rawlings? 3
DE 3 Hancock! X
DT 8 Palazzo 5
DT 1 Samolis 5
DT 8 Wooden 5
DT 7 Broomfield X

LB 11 Strickland 5
LB 9 McCarthy 5
LB 12 Shapiro X
LB 7 Fernandez Ldr
LB 7 Lincoln! X
LB 11 Hillenbrand 5
LB 6 Lester 3

So, that's not bad, really. Not sure we would carry 15 players along the D7, but this would be the universe, with a few guys on their way out soonish anyway due to age. But we're weak with my top two young "core" guys plus Broomfield whom we just extended, and I don't like that. That is the main weakness here.

If we cut/shift Fernandez and leave McCarthy as the leader, here's the lineup instead:

DE 1 Hoover 5
DE 10 Matthews 5
DE 7 Rawlings? 3
DE 3 Hancock! 5
DE 5 Harvey 3
DT 1 Samolis 5
DT 8 Wooden 5
DT 7 Broomfield 5

LB 4 Richardson? 5(potential)
LB 11 Strickland 5
LB 9 McCarthy Ldr
LB 6 Cooley 4
LB 12 Shapiro 5
LB 7 Lincoln! 5

Okay...the vibe with our most important players ratings-wise makes this the right way to go. Needed to walk through it to test it out, and that was the main idea with the no-risk signing. I think we need to leave McCarthy in as our leader there, and re-sign him now, while he's content with playing time.

all that to say there are few scenarios where a 16m bonus offer should lose to a 20k bonus offer

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Pyser

all that to say there are few scenarios where a 16m bonus offer should lose to a 20k bonus offer

In real football, 100% agreed.

I'm over here tryna play a computer game.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by tzach

This is one of my favorite threads, and a must read for anyone wanting to go the chemistry route for building a perennial contender.

Thanks, that's kind. I actually have found it...hmm...cathartic? No, that's not quite it. Maybe...fulfilling? Not sure the right word, but I'm glad i started doing this. I am much more interested in this team than I was before writing this thread.

[QuikSand]

The most interesting guy we grab in late free agency is a LB who would be an affinity if we kept Fernandez as our D7 leader. We got a few other camphands to kick around, but I don't see anything interesting coming from any of them. There's a fairly high bar to make this roster, especially if I'd have to work you up to an affinity.

[QuikSand]

...for whatever reason, Buffalo apparently went after a bunch of the same free agents we did. Coincidence?

Yo, Al? Bruh?

[QuikSand]

Well, no giant moves in the training camp stage. I tried to sign a decent LB on the cheap, but he said nah and took a lesser 1yr deal. It's a computer game, that's just how it's coded.

In Ben's player evals, he's got two interesting things from my roster:

DE Keith Hoover listed as a "Delightful Dandy" -- I still don't see what gets good about this guy. He's highly developed, but that seems to owe mostly to his main skill is PRStr, a static bar that shows up fully realized. He's goign to need more skills than that to be worth much. Awaiting pre-season change to see what I don't yet understand about a cat like this.

QB Gino Bush, a guy we basically traded up to get, shows up as a "Dirty Dud." Hmmm. Certainly could be, and no crisis if so. Again, hoping to learn something from the continued reveal.

[QuikSand]

So, we have a sim delay, but I have one update.

We have traded RB Brody Carpenter away to Philadelphia. I give up. He seems to have every skill in the book, and I extended his contract thinking he'd be the real deal for us. Instead, a pretty modest 4.27 ypc, and that doesn't seem like it's worth $19m. With Julio Henson aboard for less, I will just give him the first-and-ten duties, and hope that his mighty hole recognition skills pay off with more impressive surface stats. We'll use Hector Schwartz as our utility back, and he ought to be fine.

We get back a 2nd and 4th (giving away a 6th), plus a useful OT in Brett McCormick so this isn't a big cap-space move, as McCormick shows up making about the same base salary that Carpenter was. I think McCormick makes the team, but I'm not 100% on that, to be honest.

[QuikSand]

...or not. Trade dissolves over technicalities. The 6th he asked me to send back in the trade had already been dealt away. I didn't check, shame on me.

So, we'll use a legit trio of RBs... Carpenter should be the Chairman of the committee, and hopefully can rack up a better season - maybe 200-950? And if we can complement that with Henson giving us 80-400, I'd be okay with that.

[QuikSand]

My draft class is a nightmare, terrible even for me. DE Keith Hoover boomed, but to... maybe a rotation-caliber guy? Nobody else is worth a damn. Rotten offseason, really.

[QuikSand]

We were not a power team last year, just a solid team that lucked into a bye and lucked through the postseason. Are we 10-6 again? That sounds about right, I think. If WR Duran is really falling to earth rapidly, this season we'll suffer a bit more. The defense remains so-so. We have decent talent for our gameplan, but this isn't a great team. Yeah, 10 wins maybe.

[QuikSand]

(mostly unrelated side note... our sister team in the CCFL almost managed to complete the double-titles, but fell short in the championship game today...dang...that's as close as I'm bound to get to a "slam" across multiple leagues... I vaguely remember the last time I was sniffing around that notion in four leagues, but those days are gone for me)

[QuikSand]

So... regular season goes off:

GOOD NEWS: we improved to 11-5, and a stronger +144 in points
BAD NEWS: resurgent Browns go to 13-3 and we're only the #5 seed

Lots to like on the offensive side. WR Duran was back over 2K yards, 21 TD on 9.43 ypt, and his wingman Artie Dodge put up a respectable 1,100 and 9 TD on over 10 ypt. That coupled with a more efficient season from QB Mathews, with a 38/13 ratio to go with his usual ~5,000 yards. Solid year.

Rushing? We just suck. And I just cannot care, I guess. Carpenter and Henson each go for just a shade over 4 ypc, meh. I guess it's the line, or the scheme, but damn - that's a lot o money spent for replacement-level results, at best.

Defense? Okay, I guess. DE Hancock is the main man again, with 17 sacks. LB Osborne chips in from the edge for another 6, Broomfield gets 7, and as a team we are 11th in PR%, but lower than what I want. We give up only 6.8 yards per pass attempt, that's pretty solid (3rd best) at a key stat I watch for.

So... I find it hard to believe we can catch fire again like last year. The delta between seed #2 and #5 is enormous in football. We'll give it a go, of course... I don't have any new wrinkles to throw into the mix or anything. But we most likely just settle back in as another decent but not dominant team, hoping to rotate into a top slot every couple years until Mathews/Duran fade away, which won't be all that far off.

Glad we got our ring.

[QuikSand]

One and out in the playoffs. Situation normal.

Johnnyshaka's Browns make the title game, but lose to the Big Ben Machine. #HatsOff

[QuikSand]

So... sorry to rush right past the "reveal" but there's an offseason to attend to, and that's what mainly interests me here. Nice run Johnny, way to go Ben, Ravens back to snakebitten mode... now move along.

And, first discovery here is that in the last preseason stage, I apparently forgot to do my last round of contract extensions. Nothing super terrible here, but I have a few more incumbents in the open market than usual, I recall LB Gabriel Lincoln was asking for way more than I was happy to pay him - how he's asking for a more reasonable number in open free agency, as an 8th year guy. He's got great skills, but low endurance, and that makes for a difficult judgment call here at around $20m/yr.

I may write more today about my thinking after my first file - but here's the general setup heading into this offseason:

-$145m in cap room, about 30% of the total, more than usual
-40 players signed, legally short at C, P, LB
-my trade of RB Carpenter won't happen, as the PHI owner is on sabbatical
-DE Hancock and WR Dodge are in walk years, lotsa cap space will go there
-WR Duran is in decline, but he's back for another big target year

Overall roster needs, sorta in order: CB, DL, S, OT, P

[QuikSand]

Ok, back after some league stutter-steps.

FA opens up, and I have an unusual conundrum. I honestly don't know how much to offer a top-tier free agent. He's a 5th year CB, drafted with pick 1.6, looks and has played great, and the AI team stupidly decided to let him walk. So, he is a centerpiece type player. Neutral to our chemistry, but he's a top tier talent. I want him, but... how much should I offer?

I submitted a file offering him $49m/yr. But there was a league glitch, and we had to redo our files. I submitted the second time offering him $44m/yr, heavy bonus. I can't claim there was deep, deep reasoning there.

Anyway... Dakota Dominguez

He signs for just shy of $50. My $49m would probably have been a bit short, anyway.

(preachiness warning)

In the continuum of FOF skills, understanding free agency is an important one. I think I'm better at it than most owners, which helps offset my relatively weak drafting a good deal.

It's important in this league because we have lots of AI teams who don't understand that no high-quality player should ever be allowed to walk like this. And because we refuse to use a cap control mechanism, it becomes perfectly irrational to "overpay" free agents like this, because you are afforded the privilege of "underpaying" most of your own quality players where your only negotiation opposition is the in-game logic routines. (This guy got $50m/yr in the open market, but would have settled for maybe $22m or something like that if the AI team has simply extended his contract... that's what I'm talking about)

The free market is best. I'm a guy who thrives on cohesion and playing this stuff wisely, so the current system works fairly well for me, just in my own self-interest. I get to extend lots of my good-chem guys with no risk of seeing them walk away.

But overall, in a robust multi-player league, we should take every opportunity to move the competition to being player-versus-player rather than player-versus-program. The cap reduction tool is the best mechanism to do that, in my view.

[QuikSand]

One of my Plan B offers bears fruit, and we get a chance to look at a big-ticket DT in Juan Sullivan. Good player, but poses a chem problem for us now - he takes the position leadership role, and isn't ideal there. So, we either need to paper that over with another leader, or let him go with a $50K bonus check and our insincere apologies.

Hey, nobody else wanted this guy. Not our fault we were the only offer, and he took it.

[QuikSand]

More impactful news is that our LT Kevin Fletcher gets a super-fat one year deal from the AVAILABLE J-E-T-S-JetsJetsJets and is gone. I had offered a one year deal of my own, thinking he wouldn't attract much attention... now I regret only ponying up $21.5m when he want for over $30m. That's money I likely won't have any useful way to spend... and we'll take a cohesion and skill hit along the OL this year. OT is officially in crisis now.

[QuikSand]

For our pick at 1.22, I am again going need, and again going DL.

DT Sammie Borders likely swings outside to play for us. Sadly, it's still a need position even after the absurd draft capital I have thrown at it during this thread's lifespan.

I can't really get the mileage I want out of LB Jorge Osborne, and candidly need him too mush at LB to make him full-time DE anyhow. So, we will try to get, with this pick, a solid counterpart to offset our star DE Christopher Hancock.

Didn't have a standout CB or LB to grab here, or I would have been tempted to skip over the seemingly safe big man.

[QuikSand]

Bah. Sit down at my work computer, only to see that a lengthy file with lots of transactions is sitting, unsubmitted, for the GML. Dammit.

[QuikSand]

...and probably the most important thing in that file was my offer to a free agent OT. Didn't put in my own 3/27m offer, and he signs with division rival AVAILABLE Pittsburgh instead for 3/22. My offer was specifically designed to beat that one. Damn, damn, damn.

[QuikSand]

2nd round of draft, we have several pretty good options, and decide at the last second (literally, I moved him up my queue and when his page opened he showed as selected, I had my 5m timer on) to take max-run-stopper LB Gage Sperr who looks like he could be a long term asset for us at WILB or even SILB. Not sure we win titles by having adequate interior linebackers, but I guess it can't hurt. I didn't turn down anyone else who looked like a "difference maker" so might as well just land a solid good fit guy.

[QuikSand]

A bit of real life inattention hurts here again (again, the sort of thing I wanted to reduce by writing this damned thread) -- I fail to revisit my draft queue between our 2nd and 3rd round pick, and I just get auto-picked with my top guy. He's not awful, I must have put him in there for some reason (decent, affinity guy) but now that I look, I have a half dozen guys queued up for round 4 whom I like better than him. So it goes.

Round 3: DT Joey Lowry

[QuikSand]

4th round of the draft. I love how I can type things that are so...hopeful...at this point, before my inevitable 3rd-worst ranking and awful sneak peeks bring it all crashing down around me in a couple of days.

For now... BEHOLD MY TREASURES!

4.12 LB Marlon Barker should give us some depth inside at LB where we need it... this is the proper way to grab LB talent, not the 2nd round when there were presumably more intriguing options elsewhere...just missed out on a guy I really liked more

4.22 EDGE Wes Burks - this guy is a candidate for #PinnedEars fame, and will almost surely get switched over to play DE...can we possibly get 6 sacks a year from a 4th round afterthought guy? Maybe.

[corbes]

Barker was high on my list, though he can't cover a thing. I was hoping he'd be able to bulk up and play on the defensive line in short-yardage situations. But then again you've got that defensive-line voodoo that you do with the pinned ears and all, so maybe run-stuffer DE is not a position for which BAL hires?

[QuikSand]

Nope. DE for us is pure pass rush. I like everybody not a stud to have one job, and be cheap as a result. Barker looks to me like my usual LB7/ILB3 chum, and Burks like my typical DL6/DE4.

[QuikSand]

...revealed somewhere here is my semi-arrogant assumption that my teams are going to be winners, overall. The sort of team that tends to have a lot of leads. Not necessarily 14-win teams, but usually 10+ win teams. So, I think stop-the-run game scripts are a low priority for us. If somebody wants to run effectively against my team when down by 10 in the 4th quarter... I'm okay with that.

[QuikSand]

Free agency update (stages 6-8):

Some noteworthy signings here, actually:

G Tito Boynton, 12th year guy is a solid stopgap for us, could start at LG if we move a G out to play LT this year (fairly likely)

LT Rondell Wayne, 11th year 52/52 pass protector - would be a great fill-in if he had an affinity... for $15m we'll have a look but likely cut him

TE Josiah Sharman, 8th yr 48/48 rotation skills but a better chem leader (82/95) than Vukmir, will be a bubble guy

TE Corey Methe, 8th year 42/42, story yet to be told

LB Denial Kerska, 8th yr, 60/60, run stopper, jumps in likely as SILB starter if chem works out (likely)

LB Warren Wagner, 6th yr, 33/33, do we start this guy half the year to make him chem-relevant... maybe...

LB Micah McCarthy, returns as diminished-skills minsal guy, potentially stays as chem anchor (we have work to do there)

OT Christopher Winters, 8th yr, 51/51, probably our best fit to step in and start at LT this year

Three affinity-leader RB candidates, all minsal, all trying to grab one job holding a clipboard. Joshua Roberts is supposed to be our guy, but he gets pissed off and uppity every couple of years, so maybe he needs to sit down, be humble.

...and then we run out of cap room, believe it or not. Several of these clowns will get the quick hook.

[Elijin]

Great read, Quik.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Elijin

Great read, Quik.

Thanks, it has been fun. And it definitely has helped me "care" about this team a lot more.

[QuikSand]

End early FA/draft reveal...

Good stage for us. A few key things come together here:

-re-signed chemistry hub CB Goodwin
-re-signed LB Lincoln and C Townsend (no value, but cohesion)
-landed a couple more FAs at G, CB who likely make the team

So, that's solid. Nothing shocking, but missing on any of those first three would have been something of a blow.

Now, we miss out on WR Kirk Jacobs. He got $7.1m/yr from Houston (constantly poaching my players, those guys) to go be a chem conflict. I had offered $5.5m. He's solid, would have been a nice cohesion/chem guy to keep around as our WR3/WR4, but we'll live.

It didn't occur to me to reneg S Shireman, and he is now holding out, asking for a bump from $3.7m to $12m or so per year. Ouch. He's been solid for us, but this is a classic case of "good fit" over actual skills. I can't fathom paying him big money, he's rated 44/44 overall. Will have to sort out what to do here. Might require dropping one of our no-bonus guys who otherwise could have been solid.

Our draft is rated #23 overall. Actually relatively good for us.

[QuikSand]

Squirrel's Washington team is rated #1 with its draft, with only a couple extra picks (late 1st, late 2nd) to fuel that.

Back to my ever-present contrast between him and me. I'm guessing he continues to evaluate and grab non-affinity players - a key difference (but not the only one) between us. I only go with non-affinity guys when I have no good option elsewhere.

Over the long haul, there simply has to be a delta between these approaches, right? I am constantly just bleeding out from my drafts. He's more or less drafting well and building a chemistry/cohesion framework around a constant infusion of young talent.

How do I overcome that? I feel like I make savvy decisions in free agency, and to some extent I'm freed up to do more there because I am not "burdened" by having tons of good rookies meriting a new contract in year 4/5. But can that possibly work, long term?

There's a new version of FOF coming someday. I feel like I'm in a holding pattern until then. I might have to chuck this whole approach, and try to become a smarter drafter in the next version.

[QuikSand]

Interesting conundrum ahead. I likely only keep one of these QBs. Who makes the most sense? Remember the full context here - I have a starter at QB signed for three more seasons, at big money. It's a no-injury league, so the backup only plays if there's garbage time. And both guys are in my double-affinity sign 5/6 - Bush has the higher personality but doesn't yet have starts to trigger the affinities (but could get them by halfway through this regular season).

Gino Bush

Andres Carver

So... it's Carver, right? Or is it not that easy? Bush is signed for three more years, while I am trying to sign Carver out for an extra minsal season in this stage, but so far he has been turning those offers down.

[Squirrel]

Oh I'd take Carver there, every time. That's a starter for me, particularly with the cohesion build by the time you put him in. I might keep Bush as well though and go one short at LB or DB. Do you think QBs need the 8 starts to count for affinities? I wonder if they do (I'm increasingly wondering whether they do across all positions, FWIW.)

On the drafting my view is hardening that with good scouts it pays to draft for ability and with bad ones it pays to draft for affinity. So I draft for ability in GML and affinity in IHOF, where I haven't been able to get good scouts so far. I'm also increasingly of the view that scouting is very important and that the staff draft is among the most important stages in FOF

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Squirrel

Do you think QBs need the 8 starts to count for affinities? I wonder if they do (I'm increasingly wondering whether they do across all positions, FWIW.)

Two answers to this:

-on the surface, yes... there's an asterisk on the payer card that subs in for the "potential" designation to save space

-under the hood, who the hell knows whether the "potential" designation is just window dressing, pretty tough to test for that, I take it on faith that it's legit (and that such players don't actually connect)... but I'm also the guy who used to hoard unsigned affinity rookies betting on the lazy-developer angle

[Squirrel]

Yep. So I’ve got no idea but I lean towards your second answer, both parts of it