Werewolf LXI - Ocean's Eleven (GAME OVER, SEE PAGE 19 FOR RESULT.)

[claphamsa]

DOLA dola dola

My logic may be off, but at least im putting something out there. my biggest pause, is that his staments are just sOOOOOO obvious wolf that it would jsut be dumb to draw that much attention to himself, just cant figure a reason out as to why he would do it.

[Telle]

Could the seer conversion have been something that happened in place of a wolf kill? Perhaps them trying to kill or convert him set off something they didn't expect?

[PurdueBrad]

Vote Count, as of post 202:

Anxiety (2)- Passacaglia (186), jeheinz72 (189)
Lathum (1)- Barkeep49 (162)
Chesapeake (1)- Chief Rum (168)
Claphamsa (1)- Lathum (179)
Barkeep49 (1)- Claphamsa (193)

STILL TO VOTE: Chesapeake, Anxiety, ntnDeacon, Telle, Path12, Sndvls, RendeR

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

DOLA dola dola

My logic may be off, but at least im putting something out there. my biggest pause, is that his staments are just sOOOOOO obvious wolf that it would jsut be dumb to draw that much attention to himself, just cant figure a reason out as to why he would do it.

What's wolfish about his statements, again? There's his vote on Lathum. I don't really see that as wolfish, rather he's just using what he can. I'm not sure if I think he's right yet, but I could see that as a possible mechanic. As for being happy about the Carribean Queen dying, I didn't read it that way -- I thought he was saying that now we can win a normal style WW game, and simply not let the other stuff distract us.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What's wolfish about his statements, again? There's his vote on Lathum. I don't really see that as wolfish, rather he's just using what he can. I'm not sure if I think he's right yet, but I could see that as a possible mechanic. As for being happy about the Carribean Queen dying, I didn't read it that way -- I thought he was saying that now we can win a normal style WW game, and simply not let the other stuff distract us.

caribean queen thats good

I seem to get a differnet vibe than you. I dont think the ocean advantage would have distracted us, i mean, we would have had no idea it was workign or not right? and its really all random anyways.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

DOLA dola dola

My logic may be off, but at least im putting something out there. my biggest pause, is that his staments are just sOOOOOO obvious wolf that it would jsut be dumb to draw that much attention to himself, just cant figure a reason out as to why he would do it.

Originally Posted by claphamsa

caribean queen thats good

I seem to get a differnet vibe than you. I dont think the ocean advantage would have distracted us, i mean, we would have had no idea it was workign or not right? and its really all random anyways.

I agree with your thinking on it, but I can see where BK was coming from in his comment. While I disagreed with it, I didn't really think it was a wolfish thing to say.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

2. Path casts a meaningless late vote on me. I realize it is day 1 but there was a runoff between 2 candidates and Path's vote seems pretty throw awayish to me. Also IIRC he had been on throughout the day. I can only think he may have been waiting to use his vote to save someone, anxiety maybe, at the deadline.

Or as I said at the time, voting for someone who hadn't checked in yet, namely you. There is nothing inconsistent about my day 1 vote criteria. If you want to complain it was on you fine, but there is nothing more to it than that.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Thats easy, he likes the fact that cronin didnt reveal! The only ones who gain from that are the wolves! if he had revealed we would have at least been able to keep him alive for a while. by him not revealing and dying that is one less thing the wolves have to worry about.

Originally Posted by claphamsa

that is reasonable. Its possible that the not reveal by cronin is something that yalls recognize from playign with im before, but to me it seems BK is awfully happy about having one less way to lose!

Lets clarify the whole Danny Oceans thing:

Each night, Danny Oceans is to PM a player's name and this person will take the lead in attempting to knock off one of the casinos. Each night five random players (may be villager, wolf or rogue) will have this ability and if Danny's choice matches, than the villagers will successfully knock off one of the casinos. If all five casinos are knocked off, the villagers score a major victory and win the game outright. However, if Danny is killed, the villagers lose this win-set opportunity.

based on this it would take a minimum of 5 full days for Danny to win the game for us through his mechanic. IF he reveals, he dies, wether that night or 3 nights from then, he WILL be killed off before he has any chance of completing his win condition.

You're basis that he should have revealed doesn't work here since revealing guarentees he fails while keeping it quiet at least gives him a chance of being saved/duked off of/something.

Granted that never happened, but it was the smarter play to NOT reveal.

As for BK...I rarely trust him anyway, but I'm not seeing anything particularly wolfish in his comments yet.

More later.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Lets clarify the whole Danny Oceans thing:



based on this it would take a minimum of 5 full days for Danny to win the game for us through his mechanic. IF he reveals, he dies, wether that night or 3 nights from then, he WILL be killed off before he has any chance of completing his win condition.

You're basis that he should have revealed doesn't work here since revealing guarentees he fails while keeping it quiet at least gives him a chance of being saved/duked off of/something.

Granted that never happened, but it was the smarter play to NOT reveal.

As for BK...I rarely trust him anyway, but I'm not seeing anything particularly wolfish in his comments yet.

More later.

Welll I did completely ignore the duking aspect, but why would the duke waste their move when we didnt know it was him? same for the BG we could have kept him alive for a reasonable number of turns, and honeslty I wouldnt thinkt he Wolves would really worry toooo much about him for the first couple of turns, becasue as you said it takes 5 lucky shots. And you never know, they might get dristracted killing the seer or rogue or somethign else. remeber this game is unpredictable.

Not that your points arent valid or anything, just explaining my logic

[Barkeep49]

Thank you to Render for saving me the time of writing out my thought process on cronin's lack of reveal. I will also point out, something clap couldn't possibly have known, that I have a track record of not advocating major roles to reveal, as when I was on the chopping block in the mythology game I did not reveal as Zeus. And in that game the bad guys HAD to kill my role to win, rather than merely wanting to kill the role (as was the case of Danny Ocean).

Clap why did you feel good about your vote for anxiety at one point but then not by the time you switched to cronin?

[Barkeep49]

I'd also like to point out that revealing as an important role on D1 has caused us problems in the past with wolves being able to claim that role, the real role not being around at that moment to counter, and we then save a wolf and lynch a different important role.

The important thing, in this case, is to remember that cronin would have had to be alive for many days to help us achieve the Casino heist victory condition. He likely recognized what Render has pointed out: By revealing D1 we save him til night 3, maybe night 4. Not enough for him to help us win the game. Of course if he reveals, perhaps the vote switches to Anxiety who has some other important role.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Thank you to Render for saving me the time of writing out my thought process on cronin's lack of reveal. I will also point out, something clap couldn't possibly have known, that I have a track record of not advocating major roles to reveal, as when I was on the chopping block in the mythology game I did not reveal as Zeus. And in that game the bad guys HAD to kill my role to win, rather than merely wanting to kill the role (as was the case of Danny Ocean).

Clap why did you feel good about your vote for anxiety at one point but then not by the time you switched to cronin?

I belive someone did point this out earlier, I still dont agree with it.

[Barkeep49]

Let's do the math on this Danny Ocean bit. He picks 5 names to try and match the one which Purdue picks. So on D1 he has a 5/14 chance of getting a hit. On D2 he's got a 5/12 chance, D3, 5/10 chance, D4 5/8 chance and D5 he's got a 5/6 chance. The odds of having 5 success in a row, with those odds is 3%.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I belive someone did point this out earlier, I still dont agree with it.

After finding out it's a 3% chance do you still disagree?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I belive someone did point this out earlier, I still dont agree with it.

Sorry, I'm not following -- you don't agree with what? You think that major roles should reveal?

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Thank you to Render for saving me the time of writing out my thought process on cronin's lack of reveal. I will also point out, something clap couldn't possibly have known, that I have a track record of not advocating major roles to reveal, as when I was on the chopping block in the mythology game I did not reveal as Zeus. And in that game the bad guys HAD to kill my role to win, rather than merely wanting to kill the role (as was the case of Danny Ocean).

Clap why did you feel good about your vote for anxiety at one point but then not by the time you switched to cronin?

I had to go back and read, and my as I said then (even I didnt remember now) was that either cronin or anxiety was getting it, and i had a small reason to vote for cronin and not anxiety. THis was his stament that he found flip floping fishy. (I said it wasnt a good reason) I mean seriously the more info we have the better off we are, so If you have a hunch VOTE! say what you think! Not the best reason I know, but I had nothign on anxiety.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Let's do the math on this Danny Ocean bit. He picks 5 names to try and match the one which Purdue picks. So on D1 he has a 5/14 chance of getting a hit. On D2 he's got a 5/12 chance, D3, 5/10 chance, D4 5/8 chance and D5 he's got a 5/6 chance. The odds of having 5 success in a row, with those odds is 3%.

I think this math ignores the fact that by revealing, he helps the village to avoid lynching a villager. That's a whole new set of numbers.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

After finding out it's a 3% chance do you still disagree?

Ill take a 3% chance over a 0% chance yes!

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Sorry, I'm not following -- you don't agree with what? You think that major roles should reveal?

If you are a major role and you are about to die, yes you shoudl reveal! Even if it keeps yo aliive only for another turn or 2, you can get and diseminate more info that way.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Ill take a 3% chance over a 0% chance yes!

Oh. We're talking about with a reveal? Then it is 0%. I place it as 0% chance that Danny Ocean lives to D5 after a reveal on D1.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

If you are a major role and you are about to die, yes you shoudl reveal! Even if it keeps yo aliive only for another turn or 2, you can get and diseminate more info that way.

What info could Danny Ocean get and reveal to us? That doesn't seem to be his role.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Ill take a 3% chance over a 0% chance yes!

Dola,

I will say this tho, I view winning as my side winnig not necessarily me being alive when they do it! If I have ot take one for the team id do it!

It seems to me that some people think being alive in the end is what matters (heniz) as well as winning.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think this math ignores the fact that by revealing, he helps the village to avoid lynching a villager. That's a whole new set of numbers.

Actually, the idea of choosing a villager or wolf is irrelevant to the calculation since Purdue's random roll still has to come up with someone on his cronin's list and cronin could have, I believe, put himself on the list each day and could have been the person rolled by Purdue. The rules explicitly say that it's irrelevant if the person is a rogue, villager, or wolf. The 3% is correct.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Oh. We're talking about with a reveal? Then it is 0%. I place it as 0% chance that Danny Ocean lives to D5 after a reveal on D1.

Pretty unlikley they dont kill him, but not a 0% chance, by not reavealnig he died! If he had revealed we have a BG and Duke ( I assume) and who knows, maybe the wolves would spend a turn killing someone else (seer) who they viewed as more dangerous. Its not a very good chance but its worth holding on to

[Barkeep49]

Clap, I'm happy to continue with this Danny Ocean discussion, but just want to remind you that I'd like to understand what changed in the time between you voted for Anxiety and your switched to cronin. I presume you had a reason when you initially voted for Anxiety yet you claim you had no reason when you switched to cronin. I want to understand the evolution of your thought.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

What info could Danny Ocean get and reveal to us? That doesn't seem to be his role.

Bingo.

Danny gives us nothing, beyond knowing a good role and a 5 day chance at a winning condition, if he reveals day 1, he's worthless as he will be removed anyway. We can't learn anything from him that is useful beyond his immenent death.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

What info could Danny Ocean get and reveal to us? That doesn't seem to be his role.

Im speaking in generalityies here. More psecifically if im the seer, and im gonna get killed i shuld say hey im the seer. I would then be protected (unless no one bleived me) and could have another shot at picking otu a bad guy. If you just die then you cant do that.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Pretty unlikley they dont kill him, but not a 0% chance, by not reavealnig he died! If he had revealed we have a BG and Duke ( I assume) and who knows, maybe the wolves would spend a turn killing someone else (seer) who they viewed as more dangerous. Its not a very good chance but its worth holding on to

The Duke only saves him from lynching not from the wolves. So what percent chance do you think it is that Danny could live to Day 5 after revealing Day 1?

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Clap, I'm happy to continue with this Danny Ocean discussion, but just want to remind you that I'd like to understand what changed in the time between you voted for Anxiety and your switched to cronin. I presume you had a reason when you initially voted for Anxiety yet you claim you had no reason when you switched to cronin. I want to understand the evolution of your thought.

my vote for anxiety was typicall day one vote, I had no real idea ( and I tend to think heinz is smarter than me so i followed him) and i switched to cronin, becasue his logic on flip flopping seemed silly to me (not a really good reason but better than nothign)

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Bingo.

Danny gives us nothing, beyond knowing a good role and a 5 day chance at a winning condition, if he reveals day 1, he's worthless as he will be removed anyway. We can't learn anything from him that is useful beyond his immenent death.

Yeah but... It would take the bad guys a turn to kill him, adn we would have a chance 1 in 10? whatever to get one of them. now hes dead and they can kill one of us tongiht!

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The Duke only saves him from lynching not from the wolves. So what percent chance do you think it is that Danny could live to Day 5 after revealing Day 1?

Better than the 0% he gets from being dead!

I must admire your ability to get this thread to becoem all bout me! Kudos indead!

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

my vote for anxiety was typicall day one vote, I had no real idea ( and I tend to think heinz is smarter than me so i followed him) and i switched to cronin, becasue his logic on flip flopping seemed silly to me (not a really good reason but better than nothign)

So basically you just went where there were some votes?

[claphamsa]

Dola X10. I need to do some work! Argue amongst yourselves Ill be back later!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Actually, the idea of choosing a villager or wolf is irrelevant to the calculation since Purdue's random roll still has to come up with someone on his cronin's list and cronin could have, I believe, put himself on the list each day and could have been the person rolled by Purdue. The rules explicitly say that it's irrelevant if the person is a rogue, villager, or wolf. The 3% is correct.

I'm not talking about knocking off casinos -- I'm just talking about the fact that it helps us in werewolf to not kill villagers. Not that I'm saying that means he should reveal -- that's a total judgment call.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Better than the 0% he gets from being dead!

I must admire your ability to get this thread to becoem all bout me! Kudos indead!

How can you accuse him of this? You've argued your point so many times, and all he's done is respond.

[chesapeake]

Leak fixed, dishwasher still broken. Grr.

Originally Posted by Lathum

2. Path casts a meaningless late vote on me. I realize it is day 1 but there was a runoff between 2 candidates and Path's vote seems pretty throw awayish to me. Also IIRC he had been on throughout the day. I can only think he may have been waiting to use his vote to save someone, anxiety maybe, at the deadline.

I know Path has responded to this already, but I was thinking the same thing that Lathum articulated here. It did seem to me like Path may be hovering in case his vote was needed elsewhere.

[Telle]

I can only take so much of beating of dead horses..

VOTE claphamsa

[jeheinz72]

Wow, that's certainly a lot of pointless (to the task left at hand) discussion.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Telle

I can only take so much of beating of dead horses..

VOTE claphamsa

thats why I stoped arguing, I will say however that I wasnt the one beating the dead horse!

[PurdueBrad]

Vote Count, as of post 239:

Anxiety (2)- Passacaglia (186), jeheinz72 (189)
Claphamsa (2)- Lathum (179), Telle (237)
Lathum (1)- Barkeep49 (162)
Chesapeake (1)- Chief Rum (168)
Barkeep49 (1)- Claphamsa (193)

STILL TO VOTE: Chesapeake, Anxiety, ntnDeacon, Path12, Sndvls, RendeR

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Wow, that's certainly a lot of pointless (to the task left at hand) discussion.

Im sure you are thoroughly shocked!

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Im sure you are thoroughly shocked!

Sadly I'm not

Now I just need to decide if you and BK went back and forth because

A) One of you is a wolf who is picking a fight for really no good reason or

B) You two just aren't communicating well and are fighting over nothing

I'm leaning B, but it's worth some thought on my end.

[SnDvls]

Vote Anxiety

to keep everyone honest and break the tie.

[SnDvls]

dola,

and I need to get a vote in before I have to leave for the day in a bit.

[PurdueBrad]

Vote Count, as of post 244:

Anxiety (3)- Passacaglia (186), jeheinz72 (189), SnDvls (244)
Claphamsa (2)- Lathum (179), Telle (237)
Lathum (1)- Barkeep49 (162)
Chesapeake (1)- Chief Rum (168)
Barkeep49 (1)- Claphamsa (193)

STILL TO VOTE: Chesapeake, Anxiety, ntnDeacon, Path12, RendeR

[Abe Sargent]

Good morning all. I stayed up late last night playing Guild Wars, and just woke up a few minutes ago.

I'm getting even more votes? Surprise, surprise.

I';ll wait to casst any votes because it seems that once again, I will be forced to vote defensively

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Sadly I'm not

Now I just need to decide if you and BK went back and forth because

A) One of you is a wolf who is picking a fight for really no good reason or

B) You two just aren't communicating well and are fighting over nothing

I'm leaning B, but it's worth some thought on my end.

Or

C). Both of you are wolves, arguing with each other in public in order to hide both of you.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Or

C). Both of you are wolves, arguing with each other in public in order to hide both of you.

He's arguing with far more than one person.

Clam: You are indeed the one doing the beating, a number of people have given points that go against our argument. Its fine if you still don't agree, but its doubtful you'll be changing anyone's mind at this stage.


Let's see if anyone comes running to save Anxiety

VOTE ANXIETY

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Or

C). Both of you are wolves, arguing with each other in public in order to hide both of you.

I've never been good at C.

[RendeR]

Againt "your" argument, sorry I tend to typo a lot.