What will the outcome be of the mid terms?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Boebert in some trouble. Darn.

Still seeing a lot of the projections showing her winning and maybe the numbers not correct on % reporting at NBC.

It does seem a lot of people turned on her after her husband killed their neighbor's dog. The fact she is married to a pedophile was not an issue.

[larrymcg421]

Yeah the needle still has her favored to win, but it's close.

Warnock just took the lead again, but probably not enough left for him to get to 50.

[Swaggs]

NBC calls PA for Fetterman!

[larrymcg421]

So Dems just need either GA or NV.

[Swaggs]

Looking like a nice set of swing state dem governors possibly winning. PA, MN, MI already called and AZ and WI look promising. NV less so and obviously GA went with Kemp (who showed spine in ‘20 against Trump’s shenanigans), but I see this as important safeguard news for election integrity in 2024, which is huge.

[larrymcg421]

Doesn't tonight ensure that there will be a (very bloody) primary between DeSantis and Trump? DeSantis has got to see tonight as a big sign that this is his moment.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I wonder if anyone is going to do an in-depth analysis of COVID deaths and relate them to specific counties/states by R/D. I know the general consensus is a net loss of Rs across the country but I wonder how many of them might have translated into some congressional losses.

That would be interesting

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Doesn't tonight ensure that there will be a (very bloody) primary between DeSantis and Trump? DeSantis has got to see tonight as a big sign that this is his moment.

I very much hope so

[Brian Swartz]

Just out of curiosity, why do you hope so? Do you think there's more negatives that will be revealed about Trump from that will make people vote against him, beyond what we already know? How do you get worse from this point?

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Just out of curiosity, why do you hope so? Do you think there's more negatives that will be revealed about Trump from that will make people vote against him, beyond what we already know? How do you get worse from this point?

Oh, I think he gets a little bit worse every day. Since he can't say all 30-40 races that the Republicans probably could have won if not for his antics (endorsing crazier candidates, behaving like a me-first jerk during all those "rallies") were all "stolen", he's going to lose a few marbles while the party starts whispering that maybe there's finally some light out there away from his shadow.

There's one thing Trump hates more than losing. It's not being important, not being the king-maker.

The problem is that the primaries still reward that behavior. He could end up pulling a Mondale in 2024 the way he's going.

[Edward64]

Darn, not much has changed since going to bed last night.

Have to google on why a GA run-off takes another month. You'd think 2 weeks is sufficient. Looking forward to Warnock/Walker ads. Hope they come up with some new ones.

[Brian Swartz]

It's actually a faster run-off than they had last time.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Just out of curiosity, why do you hope so? Do you think there's more negatives that will be revealed about Trump from that will make people vote against him, beyond what we already know? How do you get worse from this point?

No, wasn't thinking about more negatives against Trump. And if more did come up, who cares ... we all know it won't make a real difference to his 38-42%.

I see DeSantis as being a viable alternative to Trump for many Republicans (and Independents). He is the only contender that I see (right now) who wants & has a reason to challenge Trump, and has strong enough of an important base (e.g. State of FL).

So the battle between them will inevitably weaken Trump and that is good. It will be good to have a relatively normal GOP candidate.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

The problem is that the primaries still reward that behavior. He could end up pulling a Mondale in 2024 the way he's going.

From your lips to God's ear.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

It's actually a faster run-off than they had last time.

I'm glad they vut the time down. I still wish we did away with the run-off system and went to ranked-choice.

[Lathum]

So I am a little fuzzy still, but Kelly likely wins Az. setting up a Walker-Warnock runoff for the Senate. No?

[Edward64]

According to CNN, only 67% counted so far in Arizona. I think way still too early to call.

But yeah, it looks like it may come down to a (questionable) wife abuser vs (I did it, but I was sick then) wife/woman abuser.

[Lathum]

You realize the police found absolutely zero evidence he touched his wife?

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Lathum

So I am a little fuzzy still, but Kelly likely wins Az. setting up a Walker-Warnock runoff for the Senate. No?

It looks like Kelly will likely win AZ (but the count will take several more days) and Johnson will likely win WI (small, but unlikely chance that outstanding Milwaukee and mail ins could push Barnes ahead). That would leave NV and GA as options for the Dems to get to 50 (and 51). NV is going to take days and seems like a true toss up. Alaska will go for one of the two GOPers, but won’t be called for another week or two because it is close and they have ranked choice.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Lathum

You realize the police found absolutely zero evidence he touched his wife?

Yes. But that ad of his wife crying is compelling.

I've read the Politifact stuff. I would have liked to read more interviews/research on wife to determine if she was really weirded out (or bought off).


EDIT: this is pretty much the video https://twitter.com/34n22pac/status/...526017?lang=en

There is definitely, by far, more smoke from the Walker camp. But this ad is troubling. I've not seen any additional research (from either side) doing more confirming or denying, or on her credibility or lack of.

[Lathum]

You have to think a run off favors Warnock. This election has shown the stink of Trump is a negative. He likely won't be able to help himself from getting involved and announcing a presidential run, which will turn this race into a referendum on Trump. Also a month more for Walker to show how stupid he is to Georgia voters. You also have to think there was a least a portion of Kemp voters who ticked off Walkers name and those people will stay home thins time.

[Lathum]

dola- If Kari Lake loses I will run around my yard in my underwear. That woman is pure evil.

[Lathum]

double dola- I think after last night DeSantis may make a run at it.

[Edward64]

I agree that a run-off would favor Warnock vs Walker/Trump.

I'm not sure that holds true if it was a Walker supported by Kemp. I think Kemp has publicly said he supports Walker but my guess (and hope) that he really doesn't. But a 51 GOP majority may be very compelling to him.

[HerRealName]

After seeing DeSantis debate Crist, if he gets on stage with Trump he's seriously jeopardizing his political career.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I agree that a run-off would favor Warnock vs Walker/Trump.

I'm not sure that holds true if it was a Walker supported by Kemp. I think Kemp has publicly said he supports Walker but my guess (and hope) that he really doesn't. But a 51 GOP majority may be very compelling to him.

I dont think it was about support, more about Kemp voters being in the booth and just ticking off a republican straight ticket. I suspect some of those people stay home because they may have been voting to support Kemp, or an anti Abrams vote, but don't necessarily support Walker.

[NobodyHere]

I do not envy Georgians right now. Your lives are going to be hell with all the political ads coming your way for the runoff.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- If Kari Lake loses I will run around my yard in my underwear. That woman is pure evil.

She's actually still favored to win, which is unbelievable.

[albionmoonlight]

After J6 and the GOP's refusal to break with Trump, this should have been a D+15 election.

But considering the historical backlash against the President's party in the mid-terms and the fact that the mainstream news has been nothing but people staring at the camera saying "inflation, inflation, inflation, inflation" over and over again while scary music plays in the background, this is a pretty good result for Dems overall.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

She's actually still favored to whin, which is unbelievable.

Win or whine?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- If Kari Lake loses I will run around my yard in my underwear. That woman is pure evil.

Pics or it didn't happen.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I dont think it was about support, more about Kemp voters being in the booth and just ticking off a republican straight ticket. I suspect some of those people stay home because they may have been voting to support Kemp, or an anti Abrams vote, but don't necessarily support Walker.

I think you are underestimating the number of Republican leaning people who didn't vote for Walker last night, but will in a runoff with Senate control in the balance. Some people thought they didn't need to vote for Walker with a "Red Wave" coming, but now will to to keep the Dems from controlling the Senate. I really don't think a runoff is a shoe-in at all.

[bhlloy]

Plus the hijinks that will go on with the Senate on the line and this being the only game in town… I’d be far more pessimistic about Warnock’s chances in a runoff personally. There’s plenty of reasons to see more R’s backing Walker, I can’t see the enthusiasm gap for D’s being close to the same.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Plus the hijinks that will go on with the Senate on the line and this being the only game in town… I’d be far more pessimistic about Warnock’s chances in a runoff personally. There’s plenty of reasons to see more R’s backing Walker, I can’t see the enthusiasm gap for D’s being close to the same.

I don't know about that. The ads start flowing about a national abortion ban and young voters will turn out.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- If Kari Lake loses I will run around my yard in my underwear. That woman is pure evil.

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Pics or it didn't happen.

Hell we can start a thread for this if it happens, I'm doing too!

[henry296]

I would expect the 2% who vote Libertarian to lean R in the runoff as well. If everyone shows up again with just 2 choices, I think Walker wins. Turnout will be the big factor.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I don't know about that. The ads start flowing about a national abortion ban and young voters will turn out.

See, I think the Dems have already hit their ceiling here. We will see.

[Butter]

I think Cortez Masto is still going to win NV.

Dems win NV and AZ and GA is just to get to 51. Still nice, as it would keep fucking WV guy whose name escapes me from holding everything hostage

[Butter]

Most outstanding votes in NV are early vote from Clark and Washoe and should favor Dem. She only needs to make up about 25k votes

[miked]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I agree that a run-off would favor Warnock vs Walker/Trump.

I'm not sure that holds true if it was a Walker supported by Kemp. I think Kemp has publicly said he supports Walker but my guess (and hope) that he really doesn't. But a 51 GOP majority may be very compelling to him.

A few weeks ago Walker was polling 5-10 points behind and has been nothing but terrible. People don't care about him lying about how many kids he has, how many abortions he's paid for, who he has beaten. I mean, if he can still get 49% of the vote being a wife beating, baby making, low IQ idiot, why can't he win the runoff. It's really a sad state.

[Swaggs]

I think it is pretty hard to predict how a GA runoff may play out. The two big variables that I see is that there won't be Kemp or Abrams at the top of the ticket (who does that help/hurt more?) and what kind of effect does Trump declaring his candidacy for 2024 have on the race? Apparently, Trump had to be talked out of announcing last week (was told that the announcement would be overshadowed by the elections).

With Trump potentially facing charges, probably wanting to change the 'loser' narrative, and wanting to get out ahead of Desantis (who, I assume will not announce anything for awhile and will just enjoy his recent successes), I can't imagine that he doesn't declare before the runoff. That could energize either side.

[Swaggs]

A few notes that I just read.

Walker underperformed the other Republicans that ran in statewide elections and was one of just 2 of the 9 finished/will finish under 2-million votes. There was a IND Libertarian that currently has 2.1% but, per his wikipedia, he is a former democrat and this is his entry at the top:

He is anti-police and openly gay.[2][3][4] He said he supports "ending cash bail," "closing most overseas bases," and "open borders." He has argued that he's "more progressive on criminal justice" than Vice President Kamala Harris, described defense spending as "corporate welfare with explosions that kill innocent people," and said he wants "free and easy immigration."

So, I doubt he was pulling a whole lot of conservatives. Maybe those voters don't turn out for a runoff, but the ones that do seem like they would be more liberal on the spectrum.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I dont think it was about support, more about Kemp voters being in the booth and just ticking off a republican straight ticket. I suspect some of those people stay home because they may have been voting to support Kemp, or an anti Abrams vote, but don't necessarily support Walker.

I suspect there's enough voters in Georgia that when you're choice is between two black men instead of championing a white man to put a black woman in her place, you might as well just stay in your racist and/or sexist home and watch some more Fox News.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- If Kari Lake loses I will run around my yard in my underwear. That woman is pure evil.

But will they be patriotic undies?

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miked

People don't care about him lying about how many kids he has, how many abortions he's paid for, who he has beaten. I mean, if he can still get 49% of the vote being a wife beating, baby making, low IQ idiot, why can't he win the runoff. It's really a sad state.

We don't agree on much politically but I generally agree with you here. I do think Warnock has good odds to win in a run-off, but it will be close (e.g. 51-49).

I'm guessing the Libertarians will be more inclined to vote Democrat. I'm thinking the younger generation will really come out if control of the Senate is on the line. (I've been watching CNN this morning and reading online, I still haven't seen anything on % voted. I wouldn't be surprised if the younger vote was lower on 11/8 and hence more of an upside for the run-off)

FWIW, GA GOP has shown they do not follow Trump blindly. That's some comfort.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Plus the hijinks that will go on with the Senate on the line and this being the only game in town… I’d be far more pessimistic about Warnock’s chances in a runoff personally. There’s plenty of reasons to see more R’s backing Walker, I can’t see the enthusiasm gap for D’s being close to the same.

The Senate might not be on the line if Dems win NV and AZ.

Plus, Warnock and the Dems have now proven they can win a runoff in GA, even when the Senate is on the line.

[Edward64]

I've not heard any crap on elections being stolen so far other than Kari Lake in AZ.

No one that has lost is contesting anything, right? I'll take that as good news.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I've not heard any crap on elections being stolen so far other than Kari Lake in AZ.

No one that has lost is contesting anything, right? I'll take that as good news.

and there have been some gracious concessions. So that's a plus.

[sterlingice]

In a local story, Lina Hidalgo was just declared the winner over Alex Mealer for Harris County judge by a narrow margin. Why this matters? The GOP dumped nearly $9M into this race in the last 6 months compared to $3M for the Dems. Because of the structure of counties in state government in Texas, the county judge has a ton of power with regards to how things are run in the county so she's been instrumental in keeping in place mask mandates and allowing open voting across the county (which is where Houston is and has almost 5 million people), unlike much of the state. In short, these are the type of races that can make little blue enclaves in red states (or vice versa) and the GOP targeted it hard, only to come up just short.

SI

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I've not heard any crap on elections being stolen so far other than Kari Lake in AZ.

No one that has lost is contesting anything, right? I'll take that as good news.

As of late last night Mastriano wasn't conceding but I don't see any updates as to whether he gave in this morning. If he did I don't think it's public knowledge yet.