NFL 2023 Offseason/Free Agency/Draft Thread

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I suspect the difference is that Fields was playing on a team that was stripped for parts and Wilson was playing on a team with a lot of quality at all the positions. A team that would probably go deep in the playoffs with a competent QB.

This is what I was thinking as well. I feel like the QB evaluations are twofold. First, is this QB capable of winning (regular season, playoffs, Super Bowls) with all the weapons a team puts around him while he is on a rookie contract. Then it is an evaluation of can that QB carry the team when the team is hamstrung by him not being on the rookie QB contract anymore and won't have those same weapons anymore.

[flere-imsaho]

And then there's Fields, whose situation reminds me of the old Folgers Coffee commercials: "We've secretly replaced the Bears' roster with a bunch of guys who stopped playing football in High School. Let's see how many forward passes Fields can complete this season. We've set the over/under at 20."

[HomerSimpson98]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Nolan Smith ran a 4.39 today. I imagine his draft stock just jump.

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Absolutely amazing how fast some of these dudes are now. And he is a DE

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Nolan Smith ran a 4.39 today. I imagine his draft stock just jump.

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When I play around with online mock drafts, he aways seems to be around in the 2nd round and is tough to pass up. He seems like a guy that should be in the top 10-12 to me.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Nolan Smith ran a 4.39 today. I imagine his draft stock just jump.

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Initially I read this as "Nolan Ryan ran a 4.39 today" and thought that was pretty impressive. Then I had to google to see if the guy is still alive. (He is)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

When I play around with online mock drafts, he aways seems to be around in the 2nd round and is tough to pass up. He seems like a guy that should be in the top 10-12 to me.

Several things hurt his draft stock - lack of numbers (only 0.5 TFL per game avg and only 0.3 sack per game career) he's thin for the position, his snap timing is iffy, and a torn pectoral in late October

Athletically he looks more dominating than he actually performs.

[Solecismic]

They play in pads. They should run the combine in full uniform and pads. The Raiders always seem to love drafting by 40 time. Do they release the splits as well? Those seem more important for the linemen.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Several things hurt his draft stock - lack of numbers (only 0.5 TFL per game avg and only 0.3 sack per game career) he's thin for the position, his snap timing is iffy, and a torn pectoral in late October

Athletically he looks more dominating than he actually performs.

His bonus is he is a very smart player. Was the team captain "coach on the field" type guy. But he played linebacker. He is very light for a DE role. Much more a OLB in a 3-4 set.

[QuikSand]

Devon Achane is apparently the consensus RB 3/4/5/6/7 in this draft... but I'm not buying it. He's going to run like a gazelle, right? How does he last and fall down into round three or whatever? I know, I know, about the wiseguy opinion on running backs and draft capital and all that.

I'm taking this kid.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

The fact that it’s even a discussion on Fields that the Bears could consider moving on shows how absurd the NFL QB dialogue is IMO. That you could pick a guy 11th overall, and seriously talk about cutting bait with him after 25 starts… it’s a mad game. Especially when he led the league in rushing YPA and showed a small growth in passing and you’ve just seen Jalen Hurts follow the exact same template.

With that being said, I’ll go to the mattresses to say that Zach Wilson is a bust and one of the worst QBs of the last 20 years. So maybe we all just see what we want to see. Sue me.

I don't think they are looking to trade him. I think they just have to keep rumors out there so people don't assume they're going to trade the pick.

Fields is still a question mark. He looked great at times and bad at others. But he also had arguably the worst supporting cast in football. His #1 WR was Dante Pettis for a chunk of the season. A guy who was cut by the Giants. It's why I was critical of Poles last offseason for not providing a little help so that the team could evaluate Fields.

The other thing is that there is no QB in this draft that blows me away. Bryce Young seems the best, but his size is a huge concern. Everyone else has question marks. If there was a stud like Lawrence in this draft, I'd be all for moving on from Fields.

If they do trade the #1 pick, they have to get a #1 back from next year. That way if Fields turns out to be a bust, you'll have 2 1st round picks where you can nab your next franchise QB. But for now, I'd like to see how Fields looks throwing to actual NFL caliber receivers for a season.

[Edward64]

Fun article on 7 scouts consensus rankings by position.

NFL combine: Scouts split on best 2023 QB prospect, while unanimous at three other positions

Yahoo Sports caught up with seven NFL scouts who gave their favorite prospects at each position. It’s important to remember that these aren’t necessarily rankings and certainly don’t reflect official draft boards; this is just a poll of favorite prospects at each position.

Always happy to see a Hog do well in the draft and play on Sunday.

Linebacker
Drew Sanders (5), Trenton Simpson (2)

The top of the linebacker class is not getting rave reviews, but Arkansas' Drew Sanders is viewed as a potential long-term starter who might not ever become a superstar. Clemson's Trenton Simpson is seen more as a swing on athleticism and upside.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Devon Achane is apparently the consensus RB 3/4/5/6/7 in this draft... but I'm not buying it. He's going to run like a gazelle, right? How does he last and fall down into round three or whatever? I know, I know, about the wiseguy opinion on running backs and draft capital and all that.

I'm taking this kid.

Yes. His speed is insane almost like Tyreke Hill. He, also, has quickness and suddenness not just straight line speed.

[Ksyrup]

Admittedly, I only watched A&M this year to laugh at Jimbo, so I don't know much about him. But the question for Achane would be utilization - can he catch and would he be drafted by a team who can scheme outside the box? I feel like there are more "new breed" OCs out there who would be willing to create a Deebo-type situation to take advantage of a player like this, so you'd think drafting services would think more like that too.

But I don't know, maybe he's limited in the formations/positions he can play or durability.

[QuikSand]

I'm just saying - the easy comp seems to be mid-career Raheem Mostert, a guy who can phsicially do the whole job, but who just has that extra burst and gear when called on and can just sprint his way out of, or through, trouble. Mostert is still a value added player at 31. If this kid has that same intangible skill and is merely average at pass protection and receiving... he'd rate among a short list of true value-added players at the RB position, I think. I am very intrigued... hell, the Dolphins should be (with a nice mid-2nd round pick, too) he seems like an ideal fit.

[stevew]

The niners losing Robbie Gould could be terrible. Figuring that they’re likely to be winning on the margins a lot, I don’t want a shanking idiot kicker.

[albionmoonlight]

4.44 40 at almost 250 pounds. Someone is drafting Richardson super high.

No idea if it will be smart or stupid, but it's gonna happen.

[QuikSand]

TE Darnell Washington, "the other Georgia tight end" put on a show, too...

Here are the only four TEs with a faster 20-yard shuttle at the NFL Combine than Darnell Washington since 2006

Their weights:

254 lbs
241 lbs
254 lbs
241 lbs

Darnell Washington is 6'7/264 lbs pic.twitter.com/HJhtsTkJBF

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) March 5, 2023

Darnell Washington is 6’6 264, runs a 4.65 and he can do this?! Whoever gets him gets an absolute steal. pic.twitter.com/zD9bnH4Uwj

— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) March 5, 2023

Darnell Washington is a TE prospect in the 2023 draft class. He scored a 9.90 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 11 out of 1020 TE from 1987 to 2023. https://t.co/nuPxNPNuDU #RAS pic.twitter.com/lhXwQE9qtg

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 5, 2023

.@GeorgiaFootball TE Darnell Washington moved the sled effortlessly.

��: #NFLCombine on @nflnetwork
��: Stream on NFL+ pic.twitter.com/s0SJWMvnRP

— NFL (@NFL) March 5, 2023

tbh, that last one might be the most impactful... if you don't have to relegate your athletic nominal TE to just playing "big slot" then you can imagine/scheme a lot more from him...

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

tbh, that last one might be the most impactful... if you don't have to relegate your athletic nominal TE to just playing "big slot" then you can imagine/scheme a lot more from him...

Tremendous physical gifts but he's likely to be more of a project than an immediate impact guy. His routes are so-so, his ability/willingness to go up and get balls is shockingly questionable given his size

I wonder if he's simply been so physically dominant for most of his life he hasn't had to learn or understand some of those things.

If somebody can unlock him and actually develop him, he's a high ceiling beast.

[Atocep]

It sounds like Daniel Jones has a 4 year $160 million deal on the table that's expected to be the framework of the final deal they're hoping to get signed before the franchise deadline. Assuming that deal gets signed they're going to franchise Saquon.

I can't imagine Jones gets a deal like that on the open market.

[albionmoonlight]

Assuming D. Jones comes in at $40/year, it will be interesting to see how much of that is likely to be reached, and how much is a huge pot of back-end funny money to let his agent say that he got him $40.

If it is a 4-year deal, there isn't a ton of space to hide things.

(And I agree that $40/year is more that he'd get on the open market. I imagine that the Giants are scared to lose him and there is a touch of panic on their part.)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

It sounds like Daniel Jones has a 4 year $160 million deal on the table that's expected to be the framework of the final deal they're hoping to get signed before the franchise deadline. Assuming that deal gets signed they're going to franchise Saquon.

I can't imagine Jones gets a deal like that on the open market.

Giants are really between a rock and a hard place. Hard to let a guy walk who showed vast improvement under a new regime and led the team to the postseason and a win. All without an NFL caliber wide receiver. He isn't worth 40 million but whats the alternative, let him walk and start over?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Giants are really between a rock and a hard place. Hard to let a guy walk who showed vast improvement under a new regime and led the team to the postseason and a win. All without an NFL caliber wide receiver. He isn't worth 40 million but whats the alternative, let him walk and start over?

It's just the state of the QB position, and fear of losing one, as mentioned earlier in this thread.

I think the smart play would be to call his bluff, let him hit the open market, and circle back when he isn't getting $40 mil per offers. As a fallback you have Carr or Jimmy G, who at worst are just as good and wouldn't take $40 mil per to sign.

With that said, coming off a surprise trip to the playoffs the front office wants to keep momentum going and this isn't FOF so you don't want to get caught without trying to play musical quarterbacks I get that, but you're really putting a ceiling on your team by committing to Jones.

[QuikSand]

aTm RB Devon Achane clocks a 4.32 40 time, unofficial… most have been coming down so maybe he lands around 4.28. Making bank.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by Atocep

It's just the state of the QB position, and fear of losing one, as mentioned earlier in this thread.

I think the smart play would be to call his bluff, let him hit the open market, and circle back when he isn't getting $40 mil per offers. As a fallback you have Carr or Jimmy G, who at worst are just as good and wouldn't take $40 mil per to sign.

With that said, coming off a surprise trip to the playoffs the front office wants to keep momentum going and this isn't FOF so you don't want to get caught without trying to play musical quarterbacks I get that, but you're really putting a ceiling on your team by committing to Jones.

Non-exclusive tag essentially allows for this as well. It's only $32 million and then Jones can go negotiate around the rest of the league to see if anyone wants to give him $40/year. If someone bites, the Giants can match or get two 1st round picks. The only downside is they lose the ability to franchise Saquon, if that's what they 're wanting to do.

[stevew]

I wouldn’t care as much about giving Jones 40m but I’d be unwilling to guarantee more than 2 years(80M). His cap hit could be 12 million in the first year, and could renegotiated down to 25 million in the second year. If he doesn’t make steps forward after 2 years you eat 40 million on the 2025 cap. By that time you’ve prob fired the coach and are drafting in the top 6 again. The cap will likely increase by 25M a year as is.
Also if I can get a 3-4year deal done with Barkley I’d rather do that and just franchise Jones a couple times I guess.

Still wild this is what it’s come to.

[albionmoonlight]

I get that anyone with an internet connection can post "sources say" rumors.

But I'm seeing several people saying that the Ravens are seriously considering the non-exclusive tag on Lamar.

Seems crazy to me. But I am rooting for it. Free Agency would get 10x more fun if Lamar is in play.

[albionmoonlight]

Carr to Saints seems done. All the name reporters starting to tweet it out.

One domino falls.

Jets must be pretty confident in getting Rodgers b/c they seemed to have a bit of an inside track on Carr but they wouldn't commit.

[B & B]

Pretty sure the Jets hired that buffoon Hackett back in January only because he can lure AR to come to NY.

While he was totally overwhelmed and inept as a HC, he can just be a muppet OC for super diva Aaron like he was back in 2019. Its like an NFL full circle thats very similar to the Sheriff/Gase situation at the tail end there in Denver.

[miked]

If I were Carr, I would have tried my ass off to get to the Jets. They seem like they have a much better offense than the Saints.

[tzach]

Originally Posted by B & B

Pretty sure the Jets hired that buffoon Hackett back in January only because he can lure AR to come to NY.

While he was totally overwhelmed and inept as a HC, he can just be a muppet OC for super diva Aaron like he was back in 2019. Its like an NFL full circle thats very similar to the Sheriff/Gase situation at the tail end there in Denver.

attracting rodgers seems to be the main reason hackett was hired in DEN. let's see if it works this time with the jets.

[tzach]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I get that anyone with an internet connection can post "sources say" rumors.

But I'm seeing several people saying that the Ravens are seriously considering the non-exclusive tag on Lamar.

Seems crazy to me. But I am rooting for it. Free Agency would get 10x more fun if Lamar is in play.

i've always had the ravens as one of the top franchises, but their handling of lamar's contract is odd. it sounds a lot more like CLE. the ravens gm also uncharacteristically bashed the entire WR room in a press conf -- it's been a while since i've seen a gm throw an entire unit under the bus publicly.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by miked

If I were Carr, I would have tried my ass off to get to the Jets. They seem like they have a much better offense than the Saints.

True, but the Saints still have some decent pieces on offense and Carr doesn't seem suited for either 1) The New York media and 2) The late season weather in New York. Being in a dome in New Orleans feels like a much better fit for him.

Also, Rodgers + New York Media is a match made in heaven. It's what we deserve.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by tzach

i've always had the ravens as one of the top franchises, but their handling of lamar's contract is odd. it sounds a lot more like CLE. the ravens gm also uncharacteristically bashed the entire WR room in a press conf -- it's been a while since i've seen a gm throw an entire unit under the bus publicly.

I was listening to someone saying that Lamar lacking an agent is causing problems beyond just it being easier to negotiate with a professional negotiator. Apparently Lamar is just physically hard to get ahold of. Like just takes a while to respond to calls, texts, etc. Which is part of why the Ravens have had so much trouble getting things done with him. He does not have an agent, and he's not acting like an agent.

Now, I am sure that the random podcast guy I heard that from got it from someone who got it from the team. So it might just be some CYA from the front office if things really do go badly.

[bhlloy]

Saw Peter King saying the exact same thing on NFL network last week. Typically the agent would be at the combine, meeting with the team and sounding out other teams for leverage. With Lamar being his own agent and not readily available, it’s the main reason for the lack of progress so far.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

True, but the Saints still have some decent pieces on offense and Carr doesn't seem suited for either 1) The New York media and 2) The late season weather in New York. Being in a dome in New Orleans feels like a much better fit for him.

Also, Rodgers + New York Media is a match made in heaven. It's what we deserve.

Carr would have crumbled in new york. He's very sensitive and his cold weather performance has been awful. This seems like the best fit for him.

[Danny]

Also Carr and his agent may have been using the Jets to maximize his contract

[Swaggs]

Carr to the Saints seems like an even better deal without having to give up any comp picks (or picks from a trade).

[GrantDawg]

Geno Smith's new deal is going to pay him $52 million next year. How's that for setting the market?

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[GrantDawg]

It is really a great contract for the Seahawks. Almost half the contract hits the cap in his first year. Lower cap hits in the last two years, gives the team room to maneuver.

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[Solecismic]

Smith had a good year, though weighted more heavily to the early season. Under the circumstances, he deserves another one. The market is definitely straining.

With Carr and Smith settled, career wins for those still on the market:

Joe Flacco (2008) 109
Andy Dalton (2011) 82
Lamar Jackson (2018) 45 (Baltimore has indicated it will franchise him)
Carson Wentz (2016) 45
Jimmy Garoppolo (2014) 43
Marcus Mariota (2015) 36
Baker Mayfield (2018) 34
Teddy Bridgewater (2014) 32
Case Keenum (2012) 31
Daniel Jones (2019) 22
Sam Darnold (2018) 21
Jacoby Brissett (2016) 18
Blaine Gabbert (2013) 13
Taylor Heinicke (2015) 12
Gardner Minshew (2019) 8
Drew Lock (2019) 8

And then, those under contract, but potentially available:
Aaron Rodgers (2005) 158
Matt Ryan (2008) 127
Nick Foles (2012) 36
Jameis Winston (2015) 33
Mitch Trubisky (2017) 29

If all those names were capable starters, it would be a different market. There are some teams that are kidding themselves if they think they can compete in the near future.

Of those, Garoppolo stands out. I don't see any of the other free agents, with Jackson apparently locked into Baltimore, as capable of leading a winning team. Rodgers obviously can win, but he'll be 40 this coming season and we can't forget that Brady was the only player in history who was worth paying the big bucks at 40. Ryan might have a little time left, but last year was rough. Dalton should get another look ahead of most of these names - he really wasn't that bad for New Orleans.

[GrantDawg]

The reports are still that Jackson's tag will be a non-exclusive tag. He is still going to be on the market if true.

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[QuikSand]

I am now more or less expecting the Ravens to go the non-exclusive route, and basically offer Lamar Jackson up for two first round picks. I don't know what their plan is, precisely, but they seem to believe that nobody drafting really late is taking the bait, and that with the draft ammo they may be able to get a young replacement (like Stroud?) to help the veneer of "compete right away."

[JPhillips]

I don't know how it would work with the cap, but Tampa should jump on Jackson.

The Jets should also go after him.

[Solecismic]

After two years of dealing with him as his own agent, I think they're comfortable with the understanding that if he somehow manages to negotiate a new contract with another team, matching it will be an absolute joy.

They may even send a gift basket to the unhappy GM who does their work for them.

[GrantDawg]

I think they are betting no team will give him an idiotic deal. I'm afraid Arthur Blank is going to say "hold my beer."

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[tzach]

i'd think that the Falcons, Giants (if not married to Daniel Jones), Texans, Raiders, Patriots, Commanders and Titans would gladly offer 2x 1sts for Lamar. Maybe the Dolphins and 49ers would too. as far as i know, they can be future picks if Lamar signs the tag after the draft. a non-exclusive tag would make for an entertaining next couple weeks.


carr's deal will likely set the standard for the good but not great qb tier. for practical purposes it's a 3yr, 100M deal with 70% guaranteed, so 33.3M APY. the 4th yr @ 50M team option (non guaranteed) seems to be a quid pro quo for carr getting the no-trade clause.

[bhlloy]

They are crazy if they think 2x late first rounders gets them a QB this year, without adding significantly more and completely mortgaging the future anyway.

Then you look at the QBs who will be available... maybe they take a run at Rodgers, but other than that I don't see a guy who can obviously run and improve that offense when the top receivers are something called a "Demarcus Robinson" and a "Devin Duvernay" (yes I've left Mark Andrews out but he's not an entire NFL offense all by himself).

[GrantDawg]

I think Monken is betting he can get his guy with a mid to low round pick. The Stetson Bennett Era starts in Baltimore.

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[bhlloy]

If that’s the strategy they can save a draft pick and just get Tim Tebow out of retirement

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

If that’s the strategy they can save a draft pick and just get Tim Tebow out of retirement

He's going to be the backup.