Werewolf V: Mount Fogg

[henry296]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I thought we weren't supposed to edit our posts.

You shouldn't but he did since he wasn't happy with how things developed especially the late votes.

[ntndeacon]

Well that stinks. 11/23 rd of the fun is to go back and use dead peoples words against the living.

[Joe]

that wont help us then.

[Raiders Army]

I'm confused as well. I was almost sure that Fouts was a bad guy. Maybe he was the sorceror? Would that have been revealed or not?

Maybe this analysis will help:

Day 1

Neon_Chaos: Jeebs
mrsimperless: Blackadar
Raiders Army: Blackadar
kingfc22: Blackadar first, changed to Schmidty
Thomkal: Buzzbee
heybrad: Schmidty
Fouts: Schmidty
henry296: Raiders Army
JeeberD: Schmidty first, changed to Blackadar
Raven: Buzzbee
GWB: Blackadar
TAG: Buzzbee first, changed to Blackadar
Schmidty: Blackadar

Day 2:

mrsimperless: Fouts
JeeberD: Fouts
Schmidty: Fouts
Thomkal: kingfc22
Raiders Army: Fouts
Fouts: kingfc22
Raven: kingfc22
henry296: kingfc22
TAG: Fouts
heybrad: kingfc22
ntndeacon: kingfc22
digamma: Fouts
GWB: Fouts
Neon_Chaos: No vote
kingfc22: No vote

So, assigning a numerical value to how people vote:

Neon_Chaos: 0
mrsimperless: 0
Raiders Army: 0
kingfc22: -0.5
Thomkal: +0.5
heybrad: -0.5
henry296: +0.5
JeeberD: -0.5
Raven: +0.5
GWB: 0
TAG: -0.5
Schmidty: 0
ntndeacon: +0.5*
digamma: -1*

*only one vote so far
Using the scale below:
+1 for wolf vote without changing
+0.5 for wolf vote on change
+0.5 for not voting against villager
0 for no vote or unknown vote
-0.5 for wrong vote on change (assuming Schmidty is a wrong vote)
-1 for not voting against wolf
-1 for wrong vote without changing

In my mind, the negative number people are suspicious, but then again, it's still really early in the game.

Edit-Format, and I know I'll take some shit for this, but I had kingfc22 at +0.5 instead of -0.5

[kingfc22]

Sorry guys. Just got home from work and I can't believe that I was almost killed. My statement that blacky is good was in response to Blackadar saying he felt he was targeted for personal reasons. He has since edited that post.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Why do people say this? Isn't this something a wolf would say as well?

People say it because believe it or not, some people tell the truth in this game. Like me for instance.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

I'm confused as well. I was almost sure that Fouts was a bad guy. Maybe he was the sorceror? Would that have been revealed or not?.

I think this sums up my thoughts as well after reading to catch up on today's posts.

As for yesterday: I had to put in an early vote because I wasn't going to be off until about 4:30 PM PST. 30 minutes before the deadline. So I checked the board before I went to work and noticed that Blackadar already had 2 votes for him. I decided to vote for him at that time because a) he was the only person with any votes and b) Blackadar would not be able to reasonably target me because mrsimperless and Raider's army were the first two to vote for him.

I had a chance at lunch to check the board and noticed that Blackadar felt he was being personally targeted for whatever reason and I felt bad about that, so I switched to another person who had multiple votes, Schimidty. There was no other rhyme or reason for my voting pattern other than I was at work. Just like today when I got out at 5 PST and did not get to vote whatsoever.

[digamma]

Sorry Fouts.

That sucks.

Hopefully, though, we did get protection from the body guard on night 1 and we're only dealing with no more than two wolves and a sorceror.

[Neon_Chaos]

Sorry i wasn't able to vote. Work was tough last night. (i live in the philippines, so basically 8AM there = 8PM here, vice versa).

It sucks that Fouts was a villager. Hmmm. The werewolves must be spreading their votes around now, to avoid being caught and lynched.

Now I'm not sure who's who anymore. I'm stumped.

[mrsimperless]

Oh my god, people use this phrase a little too loosely I think. If they knew how painful it actually was they might think twice before saying it. These monkeys flying out of my butt hurt like a BITCH.

Sorry Fouts. What can I say? I guess my analysis yesterday was completely off and it was pure dumb luck that got us Blackadar. I'm going to have to go back and do some serious re-reading now.

[KWhit]

Night 2:

The evening passes, and the living make their way down to the common room. Although no one was killed by wolves on the previous night, you aren't so lucky this morning.

Thomkal is missing. A quick check of his guest room reveals what you had feared. His mangled body lies on the floor in a most unnatural position. The claw marks and bite wounds are clear. Thomkal has been killed by the wolves.

Vote for day 3 is due by 8pm tonight.

[KWhit]

Alive and Kicking:
henry296
Raven
Neon_Chaos
digamma
mrsimperless
heybrad
George W Bush
JeeberD
ntndeacon
Schmidty
kingfc22
Token Asian Guy
Raiders Army

Gone but not forgotten:
Blackadar - Werewolf, lynched Day 1
Fouts - Villager, lynched Day 2
Thomkal - Villager, killed by Werewolves Night 2

[Thomkal]

Hmm Looks like I hit a nerve. A bad kill for the wolves though because as I stated all along I was a plain villager. Gave the good guys with a special role another day to live and thus help us win. Almost asked the bodyguard to protect me, but thought they might go after their kill attempt from the first night again. Guess I should have asked.

I'll be watching along to see which of my suspicions made me a target. Go get 'em humans!

[Peregrine]

Now's your chance to haunt this thread like there's no tomorrow Thomkal! Ghostly fluids from the walls, chains being dragged around, evil tapes shoved into VCRs, you've got tons of stuff to work with!

[Thomkal]

heh peregrine. The ghosts in your game are sure making things confusing aren't they? Could be fun.

::;tests rattling chains:::

[Raiders Army]

It pains me to see a fellow CoHer gone. I need to look at your posts to see why they targeted you.

[Raiders Army]

Doh. In looking over your posts, I find that there were possibly two things that got you eaten.

1. Your questioning of how people voted.
2. Your big suspicions of Kingfc22.

I would put the top three people who are suspicious in your death as being Kingfc22, JeeberD (whom you questioned), and myself.

The top choice is obviously Kingfc22. I would rank myself as being suspicious as a wolf as well (with my conversation with Fouts yesterday). Finally, you did call out Jeebs.

Since I think the Jeebs vote is somewhat weak, and I'm not going to vote for myself, I have one last choice:

Vote kingfc22

Sorry I didn't do it last night Fouts.

[JeeberD]

Damn, sorry Fouts. Weird how the theory worked in getting Blacky but got you lynched while innocent.

I'm all confuddled now. I'll have to submit my vote later this afternoon after doing some research...

[henry296]

Since Thomkal voted for Kingfc22 and was one of the first to vote for him last round, maybe we were onto something. If so, then I am worried about the wolves getting me next.

[Neon_Chaos]

Hmmm. I'm voting for Raiders Army. I have my suspicions.

The kingfc22 reason is obvious... a little too obvious. Maybe the werewolves are trying to throw us off guard? I don't know. But I am voting for Raiders, since I am going on my gut feeling.

Vote Raiders Army

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Hmmm. I'm voting for Raiders Army. I have my suspicions.

The kingfc22 reason is obvious... a little too obvious. Maybe the werewolves are trying to throw us off guard? I don't know. But I am voting for Raiders, since I am going on my gut feeling.

Vote Raiders Army

Awww, c'mon, I'm not a werewolf.

I agree it's obvious, but I explained why I voted for him. Why are you voting for me other than a gut feeling? Did you have Taco Bell?

[Neon_Chaos]

You know, I really don't have a solid explanation. Maybe it's because you're quick to analyze and go for a kingfc22 vote. I don't know. I just feel soemthing's wrong.

[Raven]

At least they only got a villager.

Busy day for me today, but I'll be back later this afternoon. Unfortunately I'll have to cast my vote early this afternoon because after 3:30 I won't be available until late tonight. Hopefully I can find something that sheds some light on the situation.

[heybrad]

I'll be voting early today as I'm leaving work early and I'm heading off for a incredibly short camping trip (I'll be gone from about 6pm Friday until 2pm Saturday). Right now I'm leaning towards Kingfc22, but I'm interested to hear more discussion.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

You know, I really don't have a solid explanation. Maybe it's because you're quick to analyze and go for a kingfc22 vote. I don't know. I just feel soemthing's wrong.

I believe it's your spelling. I might just change my vote for you since you don't have a solid explanation. I have tried to numerically quantify the voting above, and kingfc22 comes out as a suspect. The fact that Fouts was actually a villager makes it even more suspicious. Then, Thomkal gets taken out when he said kingfc22 was the most suspicious. How do you not see that at this point, he's the prime candidate?

[digamma]

I agree with heybrad that we need more discussion. We kind of jumped into the Fouts vote yesterday (though king got a sizeable number of votes). It seems too easy to just go with kingfc22 now--like that's what the wolves might want us to do.

[henry296]

I do want to hear Kingfc22 opinion about what happened yesterday before I vote.

[Raven]

I'm wondering if there is some reverse psychology going on here.

Fouts and King were butting heads. Fouts said he'd take one for the team. If he goes, then take out Kingfc next. Thomkal also was the first to vote for Kingfc, I think. Someone want to verify this?


Either the wolves are trying to set up Kingfc, or they know voting for Kingfc will be so obvious tonight, they think we won't lynch him.

Very interesting.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Raven

I'm wondering if there is some reverse psychology going on here.

Fouts and King were butting heads. Fouts said he'd take one for the team. If he goes, then take out Kingfc next. Thomkal also was the first to vote for Kingfc, I think. Someone want to verify this?


Either the wolves are trying to set up Kingfc, or they know voting for Kingfc will be so obvious tonight, they think we won't lynch him.

Very interesting.

Yes, Thomkal was the first to vote for Kingfc. I can understand the reverse psychology angle, but some things don't make sense.

For the record, I believe Fouts and I were butting heads and I think he said he'd take one for the team by getting booted and exposing the true werewolves. Kingfc22 wasn't on yesterday until after the vote. I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to say because Fouts is a villager. If Kingfc is a villager, then how were he and Fouts going to set up the werewolves? Wouldn't the villagers want to get the werewolves?

[digamma]

Originally Posted by Fouts

I'm willing to give myself up in order to get a real werewolf lynched. Lynch me tonight, and then King the next night. If my suspicions are correct, then its a good tradeoff for us villagers.

Gonna take one for the team. Remember me well.

Here was the Fouts quote.

[kingfc22]

Going to the eyedoctor, but I will be home around 11:30 PST to 5:00 so plenty of time for discussion is ahead.

[mrsimperless]

Well last night's results really threw me for a loop. I was convinced that Fouts was a wolf and I thought this game was going to start to wrap up. However, we're now in an interesting situation, as only 2 people received votes yesterday. We already now Fouts was a villager. There are only two options for king.

If king is a WOLF:
Yesterday's votes become much more interesting. Especially those swing votes at the end by Digamma and GWB. If king is a wolf then the wolves could not have afforded to let another one die yesterday.

If king is a VILLAGER:
Then yesterday's vote meant absolutely nothing. The wolves were loving it and could have gone either way as no wolves were targetted all day.

Something else of note is that it seems to me king has two "defenders" today at this point. Digamma and Neon. And digamma was one of the swing voters I mentioned from yesterday.

Also, I went back and diagramed the day 1 voting. (I'd post it, but I don't have anywhere to host the document. PM me if you'd like to host it and we can put it in this thread) It seems to me that for the most part the wolves wouldn't have voted for blackie on day 1 as it was pretty close. Also, the wolves probably didn't vote for someone who voted for blackie, as that would look a bit suspicious when he was found to be a wolf. (henry falls under this category) Those people were: Thomkal, king, Neon, and heybrad. NTNDeacon (Suicane) and Digamma (buzzbee) didn't vote at all as they weren't yet in the game. TAG and Jeeber each voted for Blackadar, but changed their vote to him later.

I have to thank the wolves for killing Thomkal last night, as that clears things up a little bit. Ad to that Thomkal being a king accuser and it looks like we have something.

So much information swirling aroudn in my head, but right now my axis of evil looks like this:

king
digamma
neon

With TAG and Jeeber waiting in the wings. It's the only theory I have at this point. AND, it all falls apart if king isn't a wolf. Therefore, I REALLY want to know if king is a wolf tonight. If he's not a whole new approach needs to be found for tomorrow, which I'm sure tonight's events will help with.

Vote kingfc22

[mrsimperless]

Just to clarify the PM blurb above, I don't want to discuss the game over PM. I just want to email my document to someone who can put it in the thread for us. It's actually not that great of a document anyway and doesn't reveal much, so if nobody cares to see it or no one can host it that is fine.

[Raiders Army]

If you look at my post #204, I showed how people voted Day 1 and Day 2. I think that even if we don't get a wolf tonight, the voting will begin to show trends.

[Neon_Chaos]

Heck, I'm not defending kingfc22. I'm actually saying that he's the obvious choice. Very obvious, in fact, which is why I won't vote for him. Feel free to vote kingfc22, if he's a werewolf then I'm wrong, and we're safer with another big hairy baddie down and out.

I'm just going with my gut feeling, and my gut feeling points towards Raiders Army. Oh, this is going to look bad if kingfc turns out to be a werewolf. Hah.

[Neon_Chaos]

dola

You know what, I've been reading the backlogs a bit. What the heck. Raiders, you voted for Blackaddar in the first round right? Hmmm.

Unvote Raiders Army

Vote kingfc22

[digamma]

[quote=mrsimperless]

Something else of note is that it seems to me king has two "defenders" today at this point. Digamma and Neon. And digamma was one of the swing voters I mentioned from yesterday.

So much information swirling aroudn in my head, but right now my axis of evil looks like this:

king
digamma
neon

[/QUOTE]

Again. Rest assured, I am not a wolf.

I don't know that I defended kingfc. I just said I'd like to see more discussion. I think kingfc22 is the easy choice, but I don't want him to be the wrong choice.

[mrsimperless]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

So what rules were ignored? I don't see anywhere in the rules where it says to vote for someone who hasn't shown up yet...

Not that this matters, but going back through the posts I think I figured out why blackadar was so upset. I think the votes that put him over the top occurred after the deadline and that was why he was mad. Although it's hard to tell because he erased his posts.

[ntndeacon]

I am not sure on this. However the rush to judgement, without other suspects is fishy to me. I can see 3 possibilities to why this is so.
1. THe werewolf/ves have not been online yet so haven't seen the voting.
2. The werewolves have figured that king is already lost to them, so they hide among his accusers. (shoot they coulda talked about it last night for all we know)
3. The werewolf/ves are jumping on because king is a not a werewolf, so it is another easy kill.

I tend to think it is one of the latter two. and would love to throw out another name, but I am not sure who yet.

[kingfc22]

Well, I can say for sure that I am the wrong choice. I already explained my reasoning for why I changed my vote from Blackadar to Schmidty on day 1. Unfortunately for me, Blackadar WAS a wolf and now it looks like I was trying to save him.

So do as you will, but I'm not a threat to Mount Fogg.

Back on day 1, Fouts voted for Schmidty and that combined with the fact that I didn't want Blackadar to take this game personal is why I changed my vote. So, we found out Fouts is a villager and now you want to lynch another. Odd if you ask me, but I have a feeling the wolves are going to win this one if the voting continues in its current pattern.

[Schmidty]

This one's easy:

Vote kingfc22

[mrsimperless]

Although I REALLY want to know for sure if king is a wolf and will probably still vote for him, some of you guys make valid points. As I stated in my axis of evil post above, if we all vote for king and he turns out to be a villager then we might as well throw the last two days voting results out the window as votes will have been for villagers. This being the case I see no harm in at least discussing what we would do if king were NOT a wolf, as this is the same discussion we would have to have tomorrow anyway.

If king is a wolf, it's easy and I vote for digamma tomorrow. I'll try to put together my "what if he's not" analysis and post it in a few.

[kingfc22]

I still have my eye on heybrad. He DID not vote for Blackadar on the first night and then voted for me knowing that if I died it would be just another villager getting the rope. Then the wolves would have you guys lynch Fouts for his suspicious behavior on day one and we already know he WAS a villager. Then the wolves get to strike again and we would still have no clue who to target making this game practically over.

[henry296]

While king seems like an obvious choice and I am curious about him, I don't think he is a wolf anymore even after voting for him yesterday. I am curious about one of his defenders Neon_chaos:

1. Not willing to jump on the Blackadar bandwagon and voted relatively early for JeeberD. Perhaps trying to start a different bandwagon for a non - wolf.

2. His trying to entice votes for kingfc22 without voting for him initially. Then he decided to get on board after nobody joined his bandwagon. Maybe he was trying to float another candidate out there and if it takes off he can jump back.

[mrsimperless]

I am getting more pissed at Blackadar for erasing his posts. I was trying to update my chart so that it shows not only the entire voting picture, but what the current vote count was at the time of their vote.

Does anyone know which of Blackadar's edited post was his vote for Schmidty? Was it one of the two immediately preceding Bucc's quote of him, the one way up on the top of page 2, or one of his posts on page 1?

[Thomkal]

I /think/ it was post #78 actually at 7:40 pm. I seem to remember him voting late in the day because it was unclear if he would be voted out or not. Could be wrong though.

[Raiders Army]

Shit, at this point kingfc22 is the most logical choice in lieu of anything to go off of; however, maybe he has a point. The quiet ones let us speculate and knock each other off. heybrad has been pretty quiet, and I initially had him and Fouts together to knock off Schmidty. I said yesterday that I would vote for him or Fouts depending on how they defended themselves. He let Fouts hang himself with his own words while he just sat it out. Interesting...

[Raiders Army]

Dola, then again, heybrad voted for kingfc22 last night...

...the wolves last night could've voted for whoever if both individuals were villagers. Then the voting would begin to make more sense because last night didn't matter to them. I may change my vote to heybrad.

[mrsimperless]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Dola, then again, heybrad voted for kingfc22 last night...

...the wolves last night could've voted for whoever if both individuals were villagers. Then the voting would begin to make more sense because last night didn't matter to them. I may change my vote to heybrad.

Exactly. That's one of the reason's I want to vote for king. Then we'll no for sure if yesterday's votes meant anything.

However I'm not ready to say that I'm sticking with my king vote yet. I just about have the day 1 voting patterns complete which I'm using to decide who I would suspect if king is in fact a villager. Is anyone able to host this image so we can all see it?

[heybrad]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

I still have my eye on heybrad. He DID not vote for Blackadar on the first night and then voted for me knowing that if I died it would be just another villager getting the rope. Then the wolves would have you guys lynch Fouts for his suspicious behavior on day one and we already know he WAS a villager. Then the wolves get to strike again and we would still have no clue who to target making this game practically over.

Thats a pretty weak chance to push the vote towards me. Lets make it official. I'm sticking with my last vote.

Vote kingfc22