POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[Atocep]

This is another example of why MAGA likely dies with Trump. No one else has the political savvy to walk the tightrope of keeping MAGA engaged and not completely turning off everyone else.

I'm sure she thought the dog story would play well with the anti-woke crowd and show she can make "tough decisions". Instead it probably destroyed any political ambitions outside of South Dakota instantly.

[SirFozzie]

You could see it with "MUGA" (protesting the help to the Ukraine against the Russian Aggresion), where MTG thought it was some kind of mega-own, and it turned to "Hey, let's do just that"

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Atocep

This is another example of why MAGA likely dies with Trump.

I think that's a fair possibility. The actual branding I mean, yeah I've never bought into that for a second. We're waaaaay too far gone for me to believe any return to greatness is realistic, slowing the swirl down the bowl is the ceiling.

But I'll give a thought that might ought to be consider by those who have serious issue with Trump: what comes next could make Trump look like the relative soft touch that he is.

Not sure how to get Burn It To The Ground And Start Over into a handy acronym

[RainMaker]

She won't stop drawing attention to herself. Just aj insane crash and burn from a politician over a short span.

Lol. Yikes pic.twitter.com/xLGKzfWbxn

— Acyn (@Acyn) May 5, 2024

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

She won't stop drawing attention to herself. Just aj insane crash and burn from a politician over a short span.

Lol. Yikes pic.twitter.com/xLGKzfWbxn

— Acyn (@Acyn) May 5, 2024

That interview is one of the biggest political disasters of an interview I've seen. She not only doubles down on shooting her dog, but suggests Biden's dog should be shot as well. Then continues to insist she's been to North Korea, but apparently doesn't understand there's a difference between North and South Korea and that the DMZ isn't North Korea? I have no idea what she's doing here.

[GrantDawg]

She being Trump-ian. Never admit a mistake. Double down, and whatever you do, never let it go. If you lie vehemently constantly with conviction, the MAGA cultist will eat it up.

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[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'll give a thought that might ought to be consider by those who have serious issue with Trump: what comes next could make Trump look like the relative soft touch that he is.

This is another one of those occasional moments where I agree with you.

[flere-imsaho]

Yeah, agreed 100% with Jon. Trump's laziness and chaotic nature probably tempered some of the more virulent ideas his right-wing hangers-on had more than anything that anyone else did. Imagine someone with a work ethic in his spot.

And before you say that someone like that won't win an election the way that Trump did - the GOP has already done a bunch of work to effectively remove the franchise from the general public in a number of states, including swing ones.

[RainMaker]

The problem they will always have is that fascists are weird and normal people view them as weird. It's an incredibly tough barrier to get over. DeSantis built up all this popular support and then ran a national campaign around inspecting your child's genitals and antagonizing the most beloved brand in the world. Noem is going on national TV talking about how she wants to kill more dogs. Gaetz is on the House floor showing off child porn to his colleagues. And we spent like 3 years with people obsessed with showing me Hunter Biden's dick. Sorry, but that shit is just weird.

Trump is an exception for a number of reasons. He's incredibly media savvy due to decades of playing the media game in New York. He's charismatic and actually funny. An incredibly rare thing to find from a politician. And he pulled the wool off the whole system showing it's just a sham. Your leaders aren't sophisticated people, they're mostly dull failkids who couldn't make it in the private sector.

And he can pull off the whole thing because he doesn't actually care about the policies of the right. It's why he was so unsuccessful as President. He'd get on to something, get bored with it, and move on. He'd be dressed as Che talking about redistribution of wealth if he thought it would make him wealthy and get him adulation.

Maybe someday there will be a hardcore fascist who takes the country by storm. But Trump is a very unique figure and we're seeing how off-putting it is when people try to emulate him. Also how unpopular that approach is to the general public if you don't have an insane amount of charisma.

[Brian Swartz]

I've said this before, but I don't think Trump is funny, and I don't think he is that charismatic. Certainly not moreso than the average politician. I don't even think he is that media savvy. He's done a number of particularly dumb things in the media.

On the that stuff is just weird, sure a lot of it is. But Trump is like that as well. Remember the republican primary debates where people were talking about hairpieces and the relative size of their ... anatomy ... and all the humiliating interruptions of Biden in the non-debate debates, and wanting to abolish the Department of Environmental, and mocking disabled people, and ...

I mean you could go on and on. Trump has not been in any way less bizarre, he's been moreso. What he's been successful at is getting people to not care compared to his style and him being against the 'right people'.

And there's a whole heck of a lot of weird stuff coming from the left also. That's part of the balance. There's a lot of 'yeah Trump is ridiculous, but compared to what those guys are saying? Yeah I'll take Trump'.

It's often harder to see it when it's something you agree with. It's easy to underestimate what in a more polite time used to be called political correctness actually looks and sounds like to the kinds of people who vote Trump.

[RainMaker]

Trump is the funniest President we've ever had. I'm sorry. How many time have we posted videos here and laughed our ass off at it? Wasn't it just a couple weeks ago where he talked about the Civil War?

Remember him asking the kid if he believed in Santa still? Dumping the fish food in the koi pond? Shooting paper towels into the crowd of people in need? Not to mention all the funny nicknames he had for politicians. Just using his cadence and some of his famous expressions is fun to do with people.

It might be unintentionally funny, but it's still funny.

[Flasch186]

Your funny is many people’s sad


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[Front Office Midget]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I think that's a fair possibility. The actual branding I mean, yeah I've never bought into that for a second. We're waaaaay too far gone for me to believe any return to greatness is realistic, slowing the swirl down the bowl is the ceiling.

Not sure how to get Burn It To The Ground And Start Over into a handy acronym

I don't engage with this thread much and will probably forget to check this, but, I must say, stuff like this really confuses me. Life seems really good to me here in America. I don't know what time in history we would like to go back to, when we could call people r*tards or f*ggots? When people smoked cigarettes inside? When there was lead poisoning everywhere? When we didn't even know about climate change? When the ozone was being destroyed? When there were no bicycle lanes and public transit was abysmal? When we weren't actively investigating our water supply? When women and people of color were second-class citizens?

I have no clue what people are hoping for with their so-called "return to greatness".

[albionmoonlight]

Just Posted: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says there is a dead worm in his brain. “The doctor believed that the abnormality seen on his scans ‘was caused by a worm that got into my brain and ate a portion of it and then died,’ Mr. Kennedy said in the deposition.” https://t.co/dr4kb5GwyN

— Susanne Craig (@susannecraig) May 8, 2024

Kennedy just openly courting the MAGA vote now :-)

[Qwikshot]

Y'know I just watched a fascinating youtube video on parallel universes due to black holes. I really want to know if this is the worst timeline or is there something even worse out there.

[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by Front Office Midget

I don't engage with this thread much and will probably forget to check this, but, I must say, stuff like this really confuses me. Life seems really good to me here in America. I don't know what time in history we would like to go back to, when we could call people r*tards or f*ggots? When people smoked cigarettes inside? When there was lead poisoning everywhere? When we didn't even know about climate change? When the ozone was being destroyed? When there were no bicycle lanes and public transit was abysmal? When we weren't actively investigating our water supply? When women and people of color were second-class citizens?

I have no clue what people are hoping for with their so-called "return to greatness".

I mean, that's essentially it. My right to be a prick is more important than your right to exist.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

I mean, that's essentially it. My right to be a prick is more important than your right to exist.

As I said in the Biden thread, Republicanism/Conservatism is "Why should others have it better than me?".

[Lathum]

Just a moment...

[Atocep]

The "good old days" that many on the right think of were times of high taxes (especially corporate), strong unions, strong social programs, and other remnants of the New Deal. Not exactly right wing positions today. Also all things Reagan worked to dismantle.

Of course we also had black people without rights, women with limited rights, and hatred toward Asians.

I guess more people went to church, but that's a discussion for another thread and something churches should be looking inwardly and question rather than blaming the people not showing up.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Just a moment...

These parts are surprising:
"Some 34% blame Hamas, while 19% blame Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 12% blame the Israeli people and 12% blame Biden."
"A large majority (81%) of students support holding protesters accountable, agreeing with the notion that those whodestroyed property or vandalized or illegally occupied buildings should be held responsible by their university, per the survey.

• A majority also said they oppose the protest tactics: 67% say occupying campus buildings is unacceptable and 58% say it's not acceptable to refuse a university's order to disperse.
• Another 90% said blocking pro-Israel students from parts of campus is unacceptable."

But this is less surprising:
"A majority of people (58%) who participated in or favored protests against Israel said they would not consider being friends with someone who has marched for Israel.

• Meanwhile, 64% of those who participated in a pro-Israel protest said they would still be friends with someone who has marched against Israel."

If you follow social media, you would think it would be like 70% blaming Isreal and Biden. That always seem to be the problem with social media, they are an echo chamber for the same opinions, but rarely reflect what most people actually feel.

This is not the only study showing the same thing. There was a study done by Harvard that pretty much showed the same results.

[RainMaker]

You can see a pretty extensive poll here. Biden's positions are incredibly unpopular within his own party.

https://www.filesforprogress.org/dat..._crosstabs.pdf

Remember that Biden won a bunch of important states by slim margins. A slight shift in youth turnout or Arab voters (especially in Michigan) could cost him the election.

They seem fine with the strategy of losing those voters and more inclined to lure Nikki Haley voters to their side. We'll see in November if the strategy works. I certainly wouldn't put my political career in the hands of whatever Israel demands and hoping there are a lot of impassioned Haley voters ready to run out to the ballot box.

[Ksyrup]

Isn't the calculus there that those voters are going to be similar to Haley voters on the GOP side - maybe you lose some and gain some of hers, but when the rubber meets the road, they are far more likely to return to their defaults? What are the Arab voters going to do - vote for Trump/GOP, protector of Muslims?! Or are a mass of GOPers who are still so dialed into the party that they are still registered Republicans really going to vote for *gasp* a Democrat?

At least on the Israel/Hamas issue, I think Biden's campaign is simply looking at the alternatives. Who truly represents the Hamas side in this country? I'm guessing conventional wisdom is most of what we're seeing on both sides is protest vote in primaries and come back to the party in November. And maybe Biden's gamble/analysis is that the net effect of both is maybe they can draw more Haley supporters than they lose Hamas supporters.

Speaking of which, just yesterday, Haley got 22% in Indiana and it doesn't appear there was some surge of Dems voting in the GOP primary.

[JPhillips]

The polls are are going to flip and people will go nuts when they start adding a likely voter screen. Trump leads with registered voters, but his strongest support comes from people without much of a voting history. A lot of these folks are probably auto-registered and have never bothered to affirmatively use the franchise. Maybe he'll get a bunch of them to finally turn out, but I'd rather be counting on known voters.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

At least on the Israel/Hamas issue, I think Biden's campaign is simply looking at the alternatives. Who truly represents the Hamas side in this country? I'm guessing conventional wisdom is most of what we're seeing on both sides is protest vote in primaries and come back to the party in November. And maybe Biden's gamble/analysis is that the net effect of both is maybe they can draw more Haley supporters than they lose Hamas supporters.

There are no Hamas supporters. There are anti-genocide protesters. I'm guessing Arab voters will just sit out. If the choice is to vote for the racist guy genociding their people or the racist guy who will probably do the same thing, what's the point?

I think a lot of people will come back during the actual election. But I also know that Democrats seem terrified of the dissent. You don't ban a popular app and storm college campuses unless you're terrified of your genocide getting more attention. Those are the actions of people who are scared of their position.

[Ksyrup]

The TikTok ban is a Dem-only position? That's news to me.

[Jas_lov]

Hasn't China commited genocide of the Uyghurs? Why don't young people want Tik Tok banned to stop supporting genocide? They also don't say anything about Russia committing genocide in Ukraine.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Hasn't China commited genocide of the Uyghurs? Why don't young people want Tik Tok banned to stop supporting genocide? They also don't say anything about Russia committing genocide in Ukraine.

Are our tax dollars going to those? Are we making it illegal to speak out against those things in this country?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

There are no Hamas supporters.

eh....

There has been a huge rise of antisemitism virtually everywhere. Perhaps these people aren't pro hamas per say, but they are definitely anti Israel.

When they are chanting from the river to the sea is there really a difference?

[albionmoonlight]

So even on on his days off, Trump is not doing any campaign events. He’s doing fundraisers. Does that matter in 2024? Does a candidate going to a swing state and giving a speech about how great they are and how much their opponent sucks actually move any needles in an age of saturated media?

[Ksyrup]

Is it that, or is it his lawyers not allowing him to go off on rants that could create issues while on trial?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Is it that, or is it his lawyers not allowing him to go off on rants that could create issues while on trial?

Would he even listen to his lawyers? Now that he controls the entire party's purse strings, does he even need to do much?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

eh....

There has been a huge rise of antisemitism virtually everywhere. Perhaps these people aren't pro hamas per say, but they are definitely anti Israel.

When they are chanting from the river to the sea is there really a difference?

No there hasn't been. You're equating criticism of Israel with criticism of Judaism. One is a sovereign country and the other is a religion.

From the river to the sea is a zionist phrase. It's literally part of the ruling party's charter. Netanyahu uses it in speeches all the time. So is it OK to use if your skin is lighter or you have a different religion? Trying to figure out the difference here.

[Edward64]

Just saying ...

[Lathum]

Ladies and gentleman todays GOP

You either die a Kennedy with a hole in the brain or live long enough to become a Kennedy with a hole in the brain.

— Rep. Mike Collins (@RepMikeCollins) May 8, 2024

[Brian Swartz]

That's pretty close to as low as you can get.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Ladies and gentleman todays GOP

You either die a Kennedy with a hole in the brain or live long enough to become a Kennedy with a hole in the brain.

— Rep. Mike Collins (@RepMikeCollins) May 8, 2024

Someone needs the taste slapped out of their mouth. How bad would this guy rant, rave and cry, if a similar joke was made about a colleague's family who went through a tragedy. I dumped toxic twitter, but I hope people are roasting him.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

That's pretty close to as low as you can get.

This is what Trump has normalized. It's why I want to pull my hair out when people say "mean tweets"

[Swaggs]

Yet, these are the same people that are somehow completely appalled by the tiniest of things.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Yet, these are the same people that are somehow completely appalled by the tiniest of things.

He would definitely call you a snowflake

[RainMaker]

Looks like the Democratic Convention might be shifting to a sort of hybrid-online event instead of just an in-person event.

Just a moment...

[cuervo72]

When you don’t vote or decide to lodge a protest by voting third party, sometimes that comes with consequences you should have foreseen but didn’t intend. https://t.co/5yWCMTugEr

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) May 11, 2024

[RainMaker]

Big drop of NYT polls out today. Trump dominating Presidential polls, Dems dominating Senate polls.

[RainMaker]

The surprise was Rosen ahead of Brown in Nevada. That was seen as a really tough race for Dems but it seems like the Republican candidate is doing his best to sabotage his chances.

[Ksyrup]

I don't think these results are that surprising since they seem to align with what we'd intuitively would think be the case.

Just a moment...

Versteegen identified a significant proportion of White Americans who, despite feeling a strong sense of belonging to the larger American society, perceived a lack of recognition for their subgroup identities. Specifically, his cluster analysis revealed that about 21% of White Americans fall into what the study terms the “assimilated” group. This group scored high on belonging but low on subgroup uniqueness.

Importantly, Versteegen found that individuals in the assimilated cluster were significantly more likely to support Trump compared to those who felt fully included (those experiencing both high societal belonging and high subgroup recognition) or those who were differentiated (low societal belonging with high subgroup recognition).

[Jas_lov]

I'd be shocked if there's that many ticket splitters. I don't know what to think about these polls. It's probably just too early to take them seriously. Nevada by 12 would make it more red than Iowa or South Carolina.

[RainMaker]

Nevada (and Arizona) are seeing a huge demographic shift toward younger Hispanic populations. They make up like 30% in Nevada. The Hispanic vote has shifted dramatically toward the GOP in recent cycles and it appears to be continuing to trend that direction.

It's why Biden is down so much in Arizona too. Most people figured those states were lost causes for someone like Biden this time around. The only reason the Democrat is doing so well in the Senate race is because the Republican decided to support a plan to store nuclear waste in the state and it is not going over well.

[Brian Swartz]

Question for the 'it's too early for polls' group; when do you think we should start taking them seriously, or is the answer to that 'never, we'll see how people vote'?

[RainMaker]

The strategy seems to be ignoring the polls and convincing themselves everything will be fine. We'll see in November if they were right or fucked up another election.

[thesloppy]

2016 and 2020 presidential polls were historically inaccurate and several pollsters have openly talked about how they have changed their methods and altered their models for Trump voters, and this election in particular, all of which makes me less confident in their results, not more...especially in contrast to the down ballot polls. None of which is meant to excuse Democrats poor strategy/messaging.

[RainMaker]

The 2022 polls were incredibly accurate.