WW United -- GAME OVER

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I'm mainly worried about 3-4 days from now when we don't have enough players to field a full team (with a full bench). If we get a solid lineup together early in the game, it becomes really hard for the wolves to stop us racking up wins and we can win a race to 10 points.

That's a really big if IMO. You pretty much need to hit it today or we have no shot as it's going to go downhill fast and I don't see that happening (no offense). The no lynch is not going to work the way you think it is and we'll be stuck in a no information scenario in Day 2 short one guy.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I'm mainly worried about 3-4 days from now when we don't have enough players to field a full team (with a full bench). If we get a solid lineup together early in the game, it becomes really hard for the wolves to stop us racking up wins and we can win a race to 10 points.

and if we don't the wolves begin with a huge advantage

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Replacing one person is starting with a brand new lineup.

And if we lose we give the wolves a free kill, not to mention the wolves may decide to take out a bench player, knowing it is essentialy a free kill. Also the BG cold be on the bench protecting themselves. Then we start over a player down tomorrow.

I think the people who are voting no lynch are assuming it will be to easy to win games.

My understanding how the lineup works is you have a rating at the different positions, maybe you're a 30 at keeper, 70 at defender, 70 at forward. We get a match report and it gives some feedback as to who did well and who did poorly. If we have 5 people that did well, it's because their ratings are in those positions so their value won't change as the days go on. The wolves choose to pick off one (presumably) and then we have 4 people set up for the next match and KWhit will tinker with the other 7 starting positions to find more value. My thinking is we'll be able to sort out who should go where faster than the wolves will be able to kill them off. If we figure out a winning lineup within a couple days, they will be under tremendous pressure because we would only need a couple days more to get to 10 points, unless they want to forego killing players which I think would be poor strategy on their part. As KWhit has said, it also forces them to target specific players which makes it easier for the BG to select a target to block.

Right now we have no information whether or not it will be easy to win games. We don't know about how the ratings are spread out (if they were random 1-100 rolls for every position, everyone should average a 50 at each spot). We're not going to understand this until we get a match report and then we can begin to evaluate. But I would rather wait a day and find this out. We might not kill off someone who we find is good at a position. We can at least eliminate those people from the prospective lynch list on day 2 because they're providing some value to us in winning games until we have reason to doubt their allegiance.

Worst case scenario on D2 we might find that we can't figure out where anyone should play and we suck much more than expected, at which point we might conclude we're forced to play a regular WW game but having lost one player. That to me is worth the risk.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

and if we don't the wolves begin with a huge advantage

What is that big advantage exactly?

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by KWhit

What is that big advantage exactly?

No voting record available, they can begin picking off known good players before they become effective in too many games. They'd begin way ahead. As always, the argument for no lynch is very strong if you're a wolf...

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by KWhit

What is that big advantage exactly?

Kind of a rhetorical question, as I think I know what you'd say - "We don't have a voting record." Right?

But we do.

People are still voting between a candidate (even if you guys consolidate votes on one player) and No Lynch. If the candidate turns out to be a wolf, you still have a record of who voted for him and who didn't. Just the same as any day one. Right now, No Lynch is just taking the place of another candidate. We will all still have voting records to look at later on.

[The Jackal]

Sorry no lynch folks, but I do think the voting record is essential, and no lynch has way too much potential to muddle things up in the first few days. There seems to be a fair amount of hidden info in this game (for instance, how difficult it will be for us to actually win - it seems unlikely that random numbers are going to give us 4 wins very quickly). I don't have a leaning one way or the other on the two candidates so I'll just tack one on.

VOTE MARTIN

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by KWhit

What is that big advantage exactly?

you don't think 3-4 days of no voting record, and 3-4 night kills doesn't give them a huge advantage?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

OK, I am a little confused how the deadline works.

Deadline is a 2 PM CST.

At that deadline KWhit submits the lineup, the game is played, there is a lynch and night actions are processed. IS this a 24 hour clock?

Is this correct? And if so what is the order this all happens?

Id the person who is night killed counted for the game?

Are lineups made public, and if so when?

When can we begin PMing?

Yes -- lynch happens, and by this time, KWhit has already submitted a lineup (hopefully with conditional orders in there). The night-kill is made, then the match is played -- lineups are made public, and the relevant skill level is revealed for each player. The night-killed player is not counted for the game. The next day begins immediately (so yes, a 24-hour clock) and you can begin PMing then.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

No voting record available, they can begin picking off known good players before they become effective in too many games. They'd begin way ahead. As always, the argument for no lynch is very strong if you're a wolf...

I completely disagree. Knowledge is power - in this game especially as we learn who is good at which positions. The longer we keep the game going the better off we'll be, especially at the expense of lynching a villager (which is what almost always happens on day 1).

[Passacaglia]

By the way, votes will be accepted on the :59, but not on the :00.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

you don't think 3-4 days of no voting record, and 3-4 night kills doesn't give them a huge advantage?

FYI, I don't advocate this unless we get a totally kickass match result. My argument is for a D1 no lynch and then see what we learn from the match before deciding on a further course.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

you don't think 3-4 days of no voting record, and 3-4 night kills doesn't give them a huge advantage?

Like I said, we will have a voting record.

And I don't think we should wait 3-4 days. One for sure. Maybe 2 max. Then lynch like crazy.

[claphamsa]

do we have a recent count? I have to leave in 30, and dont want to get lynched!

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Yes -- lynch happens, and by this time, KWhit has already submitted a lineup (hopefully with conditional orders in there). The night-kill is made, then the match is played -- lineups are made public, and the relevant skill level is revealed for each player. The night-killed player is not counted for the game. The next day begins immediately (so yes, a 24-hour clock) and you can begin PMing then.

so I am assuming KWhit should leave the leading vote getters out of the lineup

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I completely disagree. Knowledge is power - in this game especially as we learn who is good at which positions. The longer we keep the game going the better off we'll be, especially at the expense of lynching a villager (which is what almost always happens on day 1).

I agree with this... but how will you tell who is good at what? all well be given is you score 800... how will you determine who is good wat what from this? it will take 7-8 GAMES before you can even make an educated guess about this!!!!

its an interesting side game.... but when it gets down to it, well either lynch the wolves, or get blindly lucky and win games.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by J23

Since we have 18 people signed up, and 16 positions listed + 1 coach. Is the extra person on the bench to bring it up to 6 bench players?

Just a heads up, being able to get on the boards around this deadline time is exceedingly hit or miss w/ work. I'll do what I can to stay active though.

I guess Telle missed this when indicating J23 didnt check in

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I agree with this... but how will you tell who is good at what? all well be given is you score 800... how will you determine who is good wat what from this? it will take 7-8 GAMES before you can even make an educated guess about this!!!!

its an interesting side game.... but when it gets down to it, well either lynch the wolves, or get blindly lucky and win games.

No. Pass said we'll be told what everyone's skill at their current position is. We'll know immediately who was a top performer at their position and who needs to be moved.

[claphamsa]

o, well i missed that, can you quote it?

[JAG]

clap:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Yes -- lynch happens, and by this time, KWhit has already submitted a lineup (hopefully with conditional orders in there). The night-kill is made, then the match is played -- lineups are made public, and the relevant skill level is revealed for each player. The night-killed player is not counted for the game. The next day begins immediately (so yes, a 24-hour clock) and you can begin PMing then.

[claphamsa]

thanks

[claphamsa]

can we get a vote count?

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I guess Telle missed this when indicating J23 didnt check in

Was that after the game started? If so, then yeah I missed it.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JAG

Basically I think it's best to slow the game down so when we decide to lynch, we can make a more informed decision. By doing that, we increase our chances of putting together a winning soccer team and thus prevent the wolves from killing players as they are forced to penalize us points instead of killing villagers. At that later point, we can start lynching, but with superior odds (if there are 4 wolves for example, 4 out of 11 chance instead of 4 out of 14 chance) and more information about player skills. All things being equal, why would we kill our superstar goalie? How do you know today's lynch won't kill that person?

.

Originally Posted by JAG

FYI, I don't advocate this unless we get a totally kickass match result. My argument is for a D1 no lynch and then see what we learn from the match before deciding on a further course.

so why did your story change?

Yesterday you say 4/11, or 15 total players, which means 4 players eliminated by night kill.

Now you are saying no lynch day 1 and lets see what happens?

[Telle]

Votes as of posts #223:

5 - no lynch - KWhit (103), JAG (131), MartinD (133), DaddyTorgo (182), PurdueBrad (185)
5 - MartinD - Mia Ow (142), Schmidty (154), Telle (183), claphamsa (192), The Jackal (207)
4 - claphamsa - Lathum (153), LSG (156), Darth (159), lerriuqs (191)

Yet to vote: J23, Chief Rum, Alan T, GoldenEagle, Danny

[Passacaglia]

Here's the vote count I have:

Mia Ow 0 --
No Lynch 5 -- Kwhit (103) JAG (131) MartinD (133) DaddyTorgo (182) PurdueBrad (185)
MartinD 5 -- Mia Ow (142) Schmidty (154) Telle (183) claphamsa (192) The Jackal (207)
claphamsa 4 -- Lathum (153) LoneStarGirl (156) Darth Vilus (159) lerriuqs (191)

[JAG]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

No voting record available, they can begin picking off known good players before they become effective in too many games. They'd begin way ahead. As always, the argument for no lynch is very strong if you're a wolf...

I find that an amusing argument. If I were a wolf, I'd be arguing to kill off as many people as possible, even if it meant lynching wolves (especially if they're found to be superstar players), because it reduces the odds of fielding a winning team.

[claphamsa]

I actually agree with Lerrigus for a different reason, with no lynches we get no closer to finding who wolves are, except for the random chance of a seer scan! when it gets down to it, more wolves are lynched becasue of voting patterns than by seer scans. Ideally you want to combine them... but it is what it is.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

so why did your story change?

Yesterday you say 4/11, or 15 total players, which means 4 players eliminated by night kill.

Now you are saying no lynch day 1 and lets see what happens?

First, that's actually 3 players eliminated by NK because KWhit doesn't count in the winning conditions so I am working with a pool of 18 players. Second, my story changed because I thought the idea through further. If we can't figure out where anyone is supposed to go D1 and/or ratings are low across the board instead of being average across the board, we would deduce that we won't be able to put together a winning team soon enough and then we are forced to win by lynching all the wolves as per a regular WW game with the game just being a sideshow instead of a strong tool for winning and forcing the wolves' hands.

[claphamsa]

ok, im off! dont lynch me, but its better to lynch me than no one!

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

can we get a vote count?

Clap, mate, what is up with your vote for Mia Ow?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JAG

First, that's actually 3 players eliminated by NK because KWhit doesn't count in the winning conditions so I am working with a pool of 18 players. Second, my story changed because I thought the idea through further. If we can't figure out where anyone is supposed to go D1 and/or ratings are low across the board instead of being average across the board, we would deduce that we won't be able to put together a winning team soon enough and then we are forced to win by lynching all the wolves as per a regular WW game with the game just being a sideshow instead of a strong tool for winning and forcing the wolves' hands.

so lets say we lose today, do we lynch tomorrow?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Clap, mate, what is up with your vote for Mia Ow?

He switched to Martin for self-preservation earlier today

[GoldenEagle]

Look, we can win all of our games if you wankers just give me the ball. It is really that simple. Give the ball to me, watch me score. After I score 3 or 4 goals, I will drop back and defend. I might even play keeper for a few minutes, yea?

I think we need to cut some of the deadwood around here. Look, these mates are just sitting on our squad eating wages, which could be used to pay me more money.

Yea?

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

He switched to Martin for self-preservation earlier today

Right, mate. But that was a bit of an odd vote. The player is brand new to the game (which I know, she could still be on of the wolves) but it seems like an odd little vote.

Was his plan all along to create some distance between himself and Mia Ow? I just think it was odd time to speak up in the locker room.

[Darth Vilus]

If GEs skill level is low I'm gonna laugh my ass off. Hard

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by JAG

I find that an amusing argument. If I were a wolf, I'd be arguing to kill off as many people as possible, even if it meant lynching wolves (especially if they're found to be superstar players), because it reduces the odds of fielding a winning team.

But to hide as a wolf you don't want a lynch on Day 1 cause you have confusion and a lack of a real voting record. The early chances of 1 point or no points for the team is going to be higher than 3 points so why bother worrying about it? There'll be plenty of time for them to kill off the main players, IMO. This belief that we'll just start winning and clean up based on points is misplaced IMO.

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Right, mate. But that was a bit of an odd vote. The player is brand new to the game (which I know, she could still be on of the wolves) but it seems like an odd little vote.

Was his plan all along to create some distance between himself and Mia Ow? I just think it was odd time to speak up in the locker room.

That's the main reason I voted Clap. Even if he is a player weird and off-thewall votes like that are going to throw everyone off.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

If GEs skill level is low I'm gonna laugh my ass off. Hard

Look mate, it that is the case, its just the scouts are simply wrong. The gaffer knows how much quality I possess. I have already been linked to several clubs. I can also ensure my agent did not start these rumors, like some of my peers have suggested.

[Darth Vilus]

we'll see

[Lathum]

Darth Vilus= thread killer

[Chief Rum]

I can't stand this vote.

There is always someone willing to do a run on clap because he isn't the typical player. It's annoying. He's almost always a villager in these situations, so we're basically doing a number on ourselves by always going after him. So I would lean for the alternative, because voting clap is like voting for no one, if he's a wolf, hey, you knew what you were doing, if he's not, hey, it's clap. What a cop out. I guess that's the result when people don't want to put any thought into it.

But why is Martin the other candidate? Here's a guy who lives overseas, so he can't even be around to defend himself, and he's the other candidate. Why?

I believe we should lynch someone, because, in the end, I think achieving the 10 points is going to be very hard, with player attrition and the activities of the wolves. So we should stick with basic werewolf, and a no lynch doesn't make sense in basic werewolf.

But then you get a vote like this, where, for God knows what reason why, we have two candidates that probably shouldn't be candidates. Yes, I know Day One votes are a crapshoot, but do we always have to vote for "the weird guy" and "the guy who won't be around"?

Although I side with them on the "lynch"/"no lynch" thing, I did not like the illogical arguments used at points by Lathum (hyperbole) and lerriuqs (fearmongering), so I am going to vote for one of them. I refuse to accept the village vote, because I don't think people are using anything rational to pick out Martin and clap over others.

I know if I vote Lathum, he'll blow his top, so I'll vote lerriuqs. Feel free to follow me if you want.

VOTE LERRIUQS

[JAG]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

This belief that we'll just start winning and clean up based on points is misplaced IMO.

How do you know this?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I know if I vote Lathum, he'll blow his top...

What a terrible reason not to vote for someone.

[GoldenEagle]

Chief, mate, I tend to agree with you. Clap was probably just trying to get some sort of conversation going. While he is not the most intelligent lad on the team (that would be me, in my opinion), I don't suspect he is a wolf. Who knows, perhaps in his first game, someone voted from him on the first day with no explanation. So to welcome a new player to the game, he votes for that person on day 1. Karma, maybe.

So I am going to hop on your train for now. But I assume you will pass the ball in tonight's game, yea?

VOTE LERRIUQS

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by KWhit

What a terrible reason not to vote for someone.

If there was a really good reason to vote for him, this would not stop me. When I'm picking out of a hat, basically, though, I am within my rights to just not want to deal with it.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I can't stand this vote.

There is always someone willing to do a run on clap because he isn't the typical player. It's annoying. He's almost always a villager in these situations, so we're basically doing a number on ourselves by always going after him. So I would lean for the alternative, because voting clap is like voting for no one, if he's a wolf, hey, you knew what you were doing, if he's not, hey, it's clap. What a cop out. I guess that's the result when people don't want to put any thought into it.

But why is Martin the other candidate? Here's a guy who lives overseas, so he can't even be around to defend himself, and he's the other candidate. Why?

I believe we should lynch someone, because, in the end, I think achieving the 10 points is going to be very hard, with player attrition and the activities of the wolves. So we should stick with basic werewolf, and a no lynch doesn't make sense in basic werewolf.

But then you get a vote like this, where, for God knows what reason why, we have two candidates that probably shouldn't be candidates. Yes, I know Day One votes are a crapshoot, but do we always have to vote for "the weird guy" and "the guy who won't be around"?

Although I side with them on the "lynch"/"no lynch" thing, I did not like the illogical arguments used at points by Lathum (hyperbole) and lerriuqs (fearmongering), so I am going to vote for one of them. I refuse to accept the village vote, because I don't think people are using anything rational to pick out Martin and clap over others.

I know if I vote Lathum, he'll blow his top, so I'll vote lerriuqs. Feel free to follow me if you want.

VOTE LERRIUQS

I was with you right up to the two comments in bold...Funny that you shrug off the other votes as irrational and then make one of your own.

Also considering you said the exact same thing about a no lynch as Lathum and myself - how can you dismiss our arguments at illogical??

As for clap, I think he got lots of traction this time because the no lynch has ramped up so quickly. Also he was just a wolf last game and didn't get voted out early so I don't buy the "don't vote for clap" speech. We needed a viable option or two to the no lynch. We have that in place and you throw out a fourth option less than two hours before deadline? How is that going against the no lynch at all??

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

so lets say we lose today, do we lynch tomorrow?

It depends, but the answer is probably yes. If we lose and we have horrible ratings all over the place, I would definitely side with lynching tomorrow and just treat the soccer game as a sideshow because I would lack confidence in us being able to solve it in time. If we lose or tie but have good ratings in say 4 or more places, and the average rating seems to be around 50ish, I would be more inclined to go no lynch again.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by JAG

How do you know this?

What part of IMO has you confused?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by KWhit

What a terrible reason not to vote for someone.

It really is and why would I blow my top over a random day 1 vote? Would I defend myself, certainly, but to say I would blow my top is borderline insulting.

Just don't duke it to me, then I would blow my top.

And I don't buy your poor old clap argument. He voted for a first time player for no reason, and left it there for a day, it wasn't just some vote/ unvote joke. Seems like a good place for a wolf to hide a vote on a player they know has zero chance of being eliminated.