2015-2016 MLB Hot Stove thread

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

More and more confident that Alex Gordon is going to stay with the Royals. If he was leaving, he would have signed by now. He's not going anywhere unless the Royals just get downright unreasonable.

[stevew]

There's still such a surplus of OF talent out there that it'll be awhile before the Gordon market develops. Upton, Cespedes and Davis are all likely to be higher priority targets.

[Logan]

John Smoltz is replacing Harold Reynolds as the #1 color guy for FOX broadcasts.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by Logan

John Smoltz is replacing Harold Reynolds as the #1 color guy for FOX broadcasts.

wow that's quite different

[miked]

What is the appeal behind Gordon? I see a guy who is around .780 OPS (historically less than 2 WAR) and who plays above average defense. I see a big jump in 2014 for his defensive metrics, but other than that he looks good. Is this what 16-20M looks like these days? He is also 32 years old, I just don't get the appeal.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Logan

John Smoltz is replacing Harold Reynolds as the #1 color guy for FOX broadcasts.

Good news? Yay Smoltzie.
Bad news? Joe Buck remains so the telecasts are still largely unwatchable.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by miked

What is the appeal behind Gordon? I see a guy who is around .780 OPS (historically less than 2 WAR) and who plays above average defense. I see a big jump in 2014 for his defensive metrics, but other than that he looks good. Is this what 16-20M looks like these days? He is also 32 years old, I just don't get the appeal.

Yes, the market has shown an interest in paying at least $6M per WAR win. Gordon's averaged 5 WAR per season over the last 5 seasons. So $20M/year for him is definitely reasonable.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by miked

What is the appeal behind Gordon? I see a guy who is around .780 OPS (historically less than 2 WAR) and who plays above average defense. I see a big jump in 2014 for his defensive metrics, but other than that he looks good. Is this what 16-20M looks like these days? He is also 32 years old, I just don't get the appeal.

He's probably the 2nd best defensive LF in baseball behind Marte. He's also a solid OBP for your lineup with average power. That puts him among the top 5 left fielders in baseball. If the contract is for a reasonable number of years (no more than 4) then he's a solid bet moving forward.

[Swaggs]

If Mike Leake is worth 5/$80M on the open market, I like the Pirates' trade for Jon Niese ($9M in '16 and two club option years at $10-11M) quite a bit more.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by miked

What is the appeal behind Gordon? I see a guy who is around .780 OPS (historically less than 2 WAR) and who plays above average defense. I see a big jump in 2014 for his defensive metrics, but other than that he looks good. Is this what 16-20M looks like these days? He is also 32 years old, I just don't get the appeal.

Like you acknowledge, a .780 OPS is worth more than it used to be, plus $16-$20m/y doesn't buy what it used to with the influx of TV money. (And fwiw Gordon's been better than a .780 OPS guy recently, and it's an OBP heavy OPS). But yeah, it's the older, less athletic Jason Heyward - I'd be a lot more scared about giving him a long contract than about whether I paid him $15m or $22m per year.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Like you acknowledge, a .780 OPS is worth more than it used to be, plus $16-$20m/y doesn't buy what it used to with the influx of TV money. (And fwiw Gordon's been better than a .780 OPS guy recently, and it's an OBP heavy OPS). But yeah, it's the older, less athletic Jason Heyward - I'd be a lot more scared about giving him a long contract than about whether I paid him $15m or $22m per year.

He's one of those guys who's influence can't always be measured by stats. His work ethic is absolutely ridiculous and he's a fantastic clubhouse leader who mostly leads by example. He's one of those guys who's in his early 30s who can demonstrate without saying a word what it takes to be the best player you can be. You want that kind of guy if you have a young team.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

He's one of those guys who's influence can't always be measured by stats. His work ethic is absolutely ridiculous and he's a fantastic clubhouse leader who mostly leads by example. He's one of those guys who's in his early 30s who can demonstrate without saying a word what it takes to be the best player you can be. You want that kind of guy if you have a young team.

Dude, it's baseball, so while his intangibles may or may not be worth something you absolutely don't need touchy-feely metrics to say Alex Gordon is worth $20m/y in the current environment. Acting like he's Jonny Gomes does a disservice to his talent level.

PS - did KC have a lot of "those guys" when Gordon, Cain, Perez, etc were learning the ropes, or did they manage to turn out just fine on their own? Did the Red Sox suddenly lose all their hard-working grittiness and team camaraderie between the 2013 World Series and the 2014 season?

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

If Mike Leake is worth 5/$80M on the open market, I like the Pirates' trade for Jon Niese ($9M in '16 and two club option years at $10-11M) quite a bit more.

That's why you had to give up Neil Walker (2+ WAR 2B) to get him. I don't mind Niese, although he had a terrible 2nd half last year. But, if my option is Leake for $16 mil from ages 28-32 or Niese for $8 mil and losing Kolten Wong (similar WAR 2B) - I'll choose door #1.

You always get a better contract via trade, but you have to give up assets to get that contract. I'm sure people would love Shelby Miller at 500K next season over paying Cueto 6/$130M. However, to get Miller, you have to give up 2-3 top prospects (including a former $1 pick). There's a cost there too.

Also, non-draft pick compensation FAs also tend to go later and for less. Guys like Cueto, Leak and Price didn't have any draft compensation tied to them - so they went a little over market. Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy and Wei-Yin Chen may end up being better "value" signings at the end of the day, but they all cost a top 35 pick to sign - that has a cost too.

In terms of moving forward, I like where the team is with the staff. Leake was pretty solid outside of Cincy's hitter's park. He has a 2.90 ERA (1.08 WHIP) on the road and had 2nd half numbers of 3.08 ERA (1.03 WHIP) with SF. Add in that he's familiar with the Cubs and Pirates (combined 17-5 record against them) and I like the signing. Having a top 4 of Adam/Carlos/Wacha/Leake is pretty strong - with plenty of options for #5 in Garcia (when he's not on the DL), Cooney and Lyons.

[Logan]

It's Time For The Mets' Garbage Owners To Go

[Logan]

I like the Pirates and their fans so for you guys, I hope Niese performs well for you. But I also think Niese is a whiny bitch so I'm a bit conflicted there.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Dude, it's baseball, so while his intangibles may or may not be worth something you absolutely don't need touchy-feely metrics to say Alex Gordon is worth $20m/y in the current environment. Acting like he's Jonny Gomes does a disservice to his talent level.

PS - did KC have a lot of "those guys" when Gordon, Cain, Perez, etc were learning the ropes, or did they manage to turn out just fine on their own? Did the Red Sox suddenly lose all their hard-working grittiness and team camaraderie between the 2013 World Series and the 2014 season?

I'm not sure I'd put Jonny Gomes anywhere near where I'd put Alex Gordon from a locker room perspective, but to each their own. Gomes has an awfully big mouth on him. Gordon doesn't do any of that kind of stuff.

Most of the young guys you mention point to Ibanez, Guthrie, and Chen as people who were veterans that influenced their development. All great locker room guys.

[Neuqua]

Royals told they have 'no chance' to re-sign Gordon as things stand - CBSSports.com

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Neuqua

Royals told they have 'no chance' to re-sign Gordon as things stand - CBSSports.com

I'm not sure this is new news. The agent has been using this position for a few weeks now, yet they still keep coming back to chat. Whether they sign him is still up for debate, but this is mostly positioning at this point to try to get the Royals to bring up their deal.

Also, really surprised that this article didn't even mention the Royals highest two starting targets right now. They're looking to sign Yovani Gallardo and Scott Kasmir. Most reports say Chen isn't an option they're considering.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Arles

That's why you had to give up Neil Walker (2+ WAR 2B) to get him. I don't mind Niese, although he had a terrible 2nd half last year. But, if my option is Leake for $16 mil from ages 28-32 or Niese for $8 mil and losing Kolten Wong (similar WAR 2B) - I'll choose door #1.

You always get a better contract via trade, but you have to give up assets to get that contract. I'm sure people would love Shelby Miller at 500K next season over paying Cueto 6/$130M. However, to get Miller, you have to give up 2-3 top prospects (including a former $1 pick). There's a cost there too.

Also, non-draft pick compensation FAs also tend to go later and for less. Guys like Cueto, Leak and Price didn't have any draft compensation tied to them - so they went a little over market. Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy and Wei-Yin Chen may end up being better "value" signings at the end of the day, but they all cost a top 35 pick to sign - that has a cost too.

In terms of moving forward, I like where the team is with the staff. Leake was pretty solid outside of Cincy's hitter's park. He has a 2.90 ERA (1.08 WHIP) on the road and had 2nd half numbers of 3.08 ERA (1.03 WHIP) with SF. Add in that he's familiar with the Cubs and Pirates (combined 17-5 record against them) and I like the signing. Having a top 4 of Adam/Carlos/Wacha/Leake is pretty strong - with plenty of options for #5 in Garcia (when he's not on the DL), Cooney and Lyons.

Agreed with all, aside with being a little less optimistic about Leake's performance going forward (and I think he's better than Niese).

My comment is more about coming to accept that pitchers like Leake and Niese, guys that are 3 or 4 starters at best on good teams, are worth $20M on the open market.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

My comment is more about coming to accept that pitchers like Leake and Niese, guys that are 3 or 4 starters at best on good teams, are worth $20M on the open market.

I'm not sure they are. I think patience is going to be rewarded on some of these pitchers if you're willing to be flexible as a GM.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

If Mike Leake is worth 5/$80M on the open market, I like the Pirates' trade for Jon Niese ($9M in '16 and two club option years at $10-11M) quite a bit more.

Yeah, I liked that acquisition a lot. Niese can either be a 1 year bridge to some of our better minor league arms or he can stick around for 3 years.

Anyways, so happy to see Morton gone.

[molson]

RIP Dave Henderson. He was my favorite player as a kid after his heroics for the Red Sox in the '86 ALCS. I wrote him a letter as an 8-year old and he sent me back an autographed baseball card. I watched a bit of that '86 ALCS game 5 today on youtube, still my favorite game ever.

[Ramzavail]

that's an awesome story. I too loved Hendu. I thought he was so underrated. Super clutch and was an underrated defensive outfielder.

[ISiddiqui]

After Chapman to the Dodgers fell through due to the domestic violence chargers, the Yankees pounced:

Reds deal closer Aroldis Chapman to Yankees

[PilotMan]

Well that sucks.

[stevew]

Jagielo is decent.

[Swaggs]

If they weren't going to sign him, looks like a real nice return to me.

Sounds like the x-factor here is that a suspension would reduce his salary and it could make him ineligible for free agency for another year. The players' association will love this case, if it plays out that way.

I remember discussion about Jagiello when he was drafted and it looks like he has put up good numbers since.

As an aside, I just looked up A-Rod's baseball reference page and cannot believe he has played for the Yankees for 11 years. More than he combined for with Seattle and Texas.

[JPhillips]

I'd rather they get one of the top four prospects than four mid-level guys. The real problem is that the Reds didn't sell off guys last year when the value was higher.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'd rather they get one of the top four prospects than four mid-level guys. The real problem is that the Reds didn't sell off guys last year when the value was higher.

Trade a guy a year too early rather than too late. Reds are screwed at this point. They're rebuilding into a .500 team.

[JPhillips]

I'd be thrilled with .500. I think they're rebuilding into the early 2000s Reds. Who exactly has All-Star potential besides Votto?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by molson

RIP Dave Henderson. He was my favorite player as a kid after his heroics for the Red Sox in the '86 ALCS. I wrote him a letter as an 8-year old and he sent me back an autographed baseball card. I watched a bit of that '86 ALCS game 5 today on youtube, still my favorite game ever.

RIP Hendu. You ripped my heart out and showed it to me Temple of Doom style back in '86, and that moment would define my Angel fandom for 16 years.

But I never hated this guy. He was too awesome. This so very young.

Godspeed, Dave. And bring your bat--I'm pretty sure Donnie is waiting to take another crack at you.

[Swaggs]

I didn't realize how bad the Reds payroll situation had gotten.

Homer Bailey ay have the most immovable contract in the league (haven't checked to see how many years Howard has left). Bruce still seems like a good player, but his WAR suggests otherwise.

It may have been more wise for them to try to tether one of them to Chapman. I wonder if Votto is movable for decent prospects without forking over a ton of cash.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I didn't realize how bad the Reds payroll situation had gotten.

Homer Bailey ay have the most immovable contract in the league (haven't checked to see how many years Howard has left). Bruce still seems like a good player, but his WAR suggests otherwise.

It may have been more wise for them to try to tether one of them to Chapman. I wonder if Votto is movable for decent prospects without forking over a ton of cash.

They have a couple of bad contracts, but after all the trades they are fine for the next few years. They should have enough money to go hard in international signings if they choose(and they should).

[stevew]

If Jagielo can stick at 3rd he will bring some value. I'd have probably tried to get Brady Lail instead of one of the other arns out of the deal too. Seems like they could have gotten Jake Cave(from the rule 5 draft) factored into the deal as well

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Alex Gordon told a local media outlet that there's "no truth" to the rumor that the Royals have no chance at landing him with their current offer level.

Like I said previously, this guy is bending over backwards to try to stay with the Royals. He's just waiting to see what the free agent market will hand him and then he's going to ask for something similar from the Royals with a small hometown discount.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I wonder if Votto is movable for decent prospects without forking over a ton of cash.

Joey Votto has the weirdest trade value in the league. I'm not even certain any team in the league would trade for that contract straight up, but I could also see him getting moved for a shockingly high haul if they could find the right opposing GM (maybe Arizona will hire Ruben Amaro next)! And from Cincinnati's side, is he an untouchable franchise cornerstone they try to rebuild around, or someone they should actively trying to move before he enters that decline phase? Although $22.5m/y doesn't look as expensive as it seemed in 2018-2020 when that extension was signed. Dustin Pedroia's in a similar position.

[Atocep]

Paying him more than $20 mil per through his age 41 season makes him more or less immovable without sending a lot of money back.

I don't think the teams that would make a deal like this are the type of teams that appreciate the value of Votto either.

[PilotMan]

So LA signs a Japanese pitcher (Maeda) to an 8-year deal. EIGHT years. Wow, thats a commitment to a guy that has never pitched in the Majors. Sure he's gotten guys out, but at 28, 8 years puts him at least 2-3 years post prime, if his arm holds up that long.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Alex Gordon told a local media outlet that there's "no truth" to the rumor that the Royals have no chance at landing him with their current offer level.

Like I said previously, this guy is bending over backwards to try to stay with the Royals. He's just waiting to see what the free agent market will hand him and then he's going to ask for something similar from the Royals with a small hometown discount.

Wishful thinking? I doubt a player looking to get his "market" value is going to admit to be (maybe?)willing to take the current substandard offer. Otherwise he is incredibly dumb at negotiations.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

So LA signs a Japanese pitcher (Maeda) to an 8-year deal. EIGHT years. Wow, thats a commitment to a guy that has never pitched in the Majors. Sure he's gotten guys out, but at 28, 8 years puts him at least 2-3 years post prime, if his arm holds up that long.

8 years, 25 million guaranteed only though. What's not to like?

[PilotMan]

I hadn't heard the $$$, just the posting fee.

[jbergey22]

The Royals re-sign Gordon for 4 years/72 millions. Doesnt look like the Royals got that "hometown" discount.

[Ramzavail]

no, but, at least Gil Meche isn't the most expensive free agent the Royals have ever had.

[lighthousekeeper]

So with the Beachy and Maeda signings, there will be 9 starting pitchers on the Dodgers active roster. I think 6 of those would have to stay on the active roster or face waivers (and it would be difficult to demote Bolsinger or Wood based on 2015 performance).

Kershaw
Anderson
Kazmir
Ryu
Maeda
Beachy
Wood
Bolsinger
Montas


It will be interesting to see how they juggle things.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

So with the Beachy and Maeda signings, there will be 9 starting pitchers on the Dodgers active roster. I think 6 of those would have to stay on the active roster or face waivers (and it would be difficult to demote Bolsinger or Wood based on 2015 performance).

Kershaw
Anderson
Kazmir
Ryu
Maeda
Beachy
Wood
Bolsinger
Montas


It will be interesting to see how they juggle things.

Bolsinger still has an option year left. Beachy's contract isn't guaranteed and he has 2 option years left. He is still young enough that he can't refuse either. We might also see, at least in the fall, DeLeon, Urias or Holmes. So if you put Montas in that group, he's currently the Dodgers #4 prospect, behind DeLeon and ahead of Holmes.

Now you're left with:

Kershaw
Anderson
Kazmir
Ryu
Maeda
Wood

I think this is how the season will start, provided no one dies in spring training. It's clear that the team is trying to create a bridge to the young arms. My question is will they be good enough? They weren't last year.

[Atocep]

Gordon back to the Royals for $18 mil per over 4. That's pretty much right at the predicted market value for him in annual value.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

The Royals re-sign Gordon for 4 years/72 millions. Doesnt look like the Royals got that "hometown" discount.

Looks like they got exactly that. He was being offered $20M/year for 5 years by other clubs. He took $2M/year less and allowed the fifth year to be a mutual option. He's basically giving the Royals $8M over the first four years and allowing them to save $18M in the fifth year should they chose to do so. That's a $26M discount over what the free agent market offered.

[Logan]

Who was giving him 5 years? I saw the White Sox were only offering 3.

[Atocep]

The only thing I saw on Gordon before today was the White Sox were interested but weren't willing to go $20 mil per year.

[BishopMVP]

Mystery team(s) baby!