NFL 2021 Regular Season Thread

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Hurts, Tia, and Baker all fit in that “Good if you build an offense to suit them. But . . . “ box

It will be interesting to see where all of them are in 5 years.

Agreed on Tua - I thought he looked very similar today to Tua in the last couple of games, other than Hurts took more shots downfield.

[AlexB]

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a loss of 11 yards on a completed pass (other than the end of game moonshot attempts)

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by AlexB

Agreed on Tua - I thought he looked very similar today to Tua in the last couple of games, other than Hurts took more shots downfield.

I think I am guilty of rose-colored-glasses with Tua and Miami, but... Tua's OL is so abysmally bad that they more or less threw out the entire "slow-developing downfield stuff" section of the playbook, and kept Tua confined to quick decision RPO stuff.

It's certainly possible that's because Tua isn't grasping the more complicated gameplan concepts and reading coverages, etc -- but one element is definitely that in the first half of the season, he routinely didn't have the time needed to give a receiver time to get open on a full pattern scheme.

[bhlloy]

My way too early and will probably look laughable in an hour takes

1) Mike McCarthy is exactly who we thought he was

2) The Niners would be an absolutely elite team with a QB who could really open it up and make defenses fear the big play

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I think I am guilty of rose-colored-glasses with Tua and Miami, but... Tua's OL is so abysmally bad that they more or less threw out the entire "slow-developing downfield stuff" section of the playbook, and kept Tua confined to quick decision RPO stuff.

It's certainly possible that's because Tua isn't grasping the more complicated gameplan concepts and reading coverages, etc -- but one element is definitely that in the first half of the season, he routinely didn't have the time needed to give a receiver time to get open on a full pattern scheme.

To a degree. He had 2-3 games in a row where he looked really good, but all on short & intermediate passes (likely due to the OL) against relatively poor teams.

Whenever he’s come up against a decent D, he’s looked poor, and he is not good at working through his progressions if the primary receiver is covered.

His stats aren’t bad for a 1st/2nd year QB, but I don’t think he passes the eye test, but I accept that may be because he knows the OL will only hold up pressure for so long (which is the only reason IMO to have any hope he pans out)

[albionmoonlight]

I've been sort of half-watching while doing other stuff.

It seems strange that it is only 16-7.

Dallas has the firepower to come back.

Niners might regret that they couldn't finish some of those drives.

(Or Dallas will just get it close enough for Mike McCarthy to make a late 4th quarter time out decision so poor it will end up with it's own nickname).

[stevew]

I don’t like the punt off the ceiling being a do-over. If it’s that easy to hit why was the scoreboard ok’d.

[stevew]

Is Jimmy G always this terrible.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by stevew

Is Jimmy G always this terrible.

Not sure I understand why this is the consensus. The 49ers have done very well with him when they limit the one thing he doesn't do well - those sideline deep routes. Same with Tennessee when acquiring Tannehill.

One knock on Garoppolo is the number of games he's missed with injuries. I get that you don't draft a guy at #3 and not play him, but I think Garoppolo has a long career ahead of him in the right system as long as the injury thing is just bad luck.

[stevew]

That pick tho.
(As always I do appreciate a more in depth response). Just seems like he’s thrown it up for grabs or missed throws you gotta make to win. The niners still might win this anyways.

[Solecismic]

That's my fault, I guess. Shouldn't have posted. It's the Jim G solidarity thing.

I'm looking at career numbers, though, and yeah, the interceptions are too high, but everything else is exceptional - including W/L. You have a seven-year period there (QBs drafted 2009-15) where only Russell Wilson has produced at a better rate.

He just needs to stay on the field.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by AlexB

To a degree. He had 2-3 games in a row where he looked really good, but all on short & intermediate passes (likely due to the OL) against relatively poor teams.

Whenever he’s come up against a decent D, he’s looked poor, and he is not good at working through his progressions if the primary receiver is covered.

His stats aren’t bad for a 1st/2nd year QB, but I don’t think he passes the eye test, but I accept that may be because he knows the OL will only hold up pressure for so long (which is the only reason IMO to have any hope he pans out)

I think you also have to consider limited skill position support. He's had a ridiculously poor running game, and aside from Waddle and sometimes Gesicki, not much help at receiving positions.

This Peyton Manning breakdown of Tua gives me some hope: Peyton Manning Breaks Down Tua Tagovailoa & Jaylen Waddle from Dolphins vs. Giants Week 13 (Detail) - YouTube

[bhlloy]

When you make a season saving tackle and then realize they’ve spelled your name wrong on your jersey

Jimmy G is a tough evaluation for me. His completion percentage and yards has always been good, but for me a lot of that is the offense and the talent he plays with. They showed a stat earlier that the Niners are by far the best in the league in YAC. I think he’s a middling QB overall and I think he’s holding this team back from being one of the best in the league.

[miami_fan]

When do the odds for the next Cowboys head coach come out?

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

When you make a season saving tackle and then realize they’ve spelled your name wrong on your jersey

Jimmy G is a tough evaluation for me. His completion percentage and yards has always been good, but for me a lot of that is the offense and the talent he plays with. They showed a stat earlier that the Niners are by far the best in the league in YAC. I think he’s a middling QB overall and I think he’s holding this team back from being one of the best in the league.

Those first two numbers aren't just good, but HOF level so far (only 51 starts). The interceptions are unusually bad, though. What part of YAC is a ball that's not only on target, but in the exact position it needs to be for the receiver to catch it in stride at full speed? How do you separate scheme from talent?

So many questions in QB evaluation, no definitive answers. I try to correlate what wins games with stats, but there are gaps. I should put together a chart of wins/losses, yards per pass play (including sack/yards) and interception percentage and maybe that will illuminate something.

[JPhillips]

How damned stupid was that?

[stevew]

That official

[Jas_lov]

Perfect ending for a McCarthy coached team.

[spleen1015]

I like seeing this out of the Cowboys so I hope McCarthy stays. After that game, I would say chances are low. You don't get that many penalties and it not be the coach's fault.

[Ksyrup]

Cowboys fans covering themselves with glory after the game, I see.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Cowboys fans covering themselves with glory after the game, I see.

It was ANTIFA!

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by KSyrup

Cowboys fans covering themselves with glory after the game, I see.

Stephen A will have a field day with this.

[Thomkal]

Cowboys sure didn't deserve to be rewarded with a win after such undisciplined play so glad the clock ran out of them at the end there. And glad too cause I have hated them since old NFC East days

[albionmoonlight]

This is a small thing, but the Chiefs just did something that I think all teams should do. When there is a penalty to let you kick off from the 50, why don’t you try and kick a high kick that lands between the five and the goal line?. There’s a really good chance you’re going to end up tackling the returner before he gets to the 25.

[stevew]

Seems like kicking off from the 50 would be a good spot to onside kick. Also Ben can’t throw more than about 15 yards at this point.

[Solecismic]

Anyone reminded of Marino's last game?

Divisional Round - Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars - January 15th, 2000 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

[PilotMan]

Ben's arm is such total shit

[Solecismic]

I put together this chart. Quick explanation. I took all QBs since the 1998 class. Removed those with fewer than 10 starts, then most of the QBs with fewer than 50 starts who weren't active this season. That gave me 159 QBs. Listed is record, completion percentage, yards per completion and attempt, touchdown and interception percentage, and yards per attempt including sacks.

The last measure correlates most significantly (71%) with winning percentage, so the chart is sorted by YPA+Sk. Color codes are quintiles for each statistic. The chart shown removes most of the retired players who have less than 100 starts.

Nothing definitive here, just wanted to show the numbers. Totals are based on all games (including playoffs) through last week.

[QuikSand]

Ok, I'll bite... seems like the obvious first question from that table is Josh Allen, ranking last in the intriguing Y/(A+Sk) metric which generally correlates to team wins.

Likely response seem like:

-there's something about Allen that lies outside this model (rushing effectiveness comes to mind)

-there's something globally about this model that's kinda missing, like interceptions/turnovers generally, or red zone effectiveness specifically (especially where yardage is low but cost of turnover is high) and Allen may be caught up in that in a peculiar way

-Allen should regress to the expectation - and if he continues to pass with these fundamentals he will start costing games rather than winning them

-something else

-some combination of the above


Any instincts here?

[Solecismic]

The ordering is a bit odd in that Allen is merely at the 50th percentile for this selected group which is generally all in the top half of the total data set (the second half is entirely to the right).

Before yesterday, would you call Allen an elite quarterback? I think he's very good, but how the Bills do in the playoffs here, riding a great defense, will affect perceptions.

[molson]

Every time I watch Allen, he seems like the best QB in the league, but then other times I look at the scores, and the Bills somehow didn't score a TD against Jacksonville.

[stevew]

On that cowboys play is it normal for the ref to stay about 30 yards behind the play?

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by stevew

On that cowboys play is it normal for the ref to stay about 30 yards behind the play?

If you are talking about the umpire and not the referee, this is something I am wondering myself. I wonder if our resident official could clarify.

The umpire is not in the camera shot when the QB draw play starts. After he comes running in and spots the ball, he then sets up behind the defense as time runs out. IIRC, the umpire sets up behind the offense in hurry up situations which would explain why he would be so far behind the play on the QB draw. I am not sure why the umpire took a different position at the end of the game than he did on the QB draw. If I were reaching for excuses for the Cowboys, I would say they did not expect the umpire to be coming from the position behind the offense to spot the ball.

Of course none of this is to excuse the Cowboys' incompetence. Just a curiosity in the game operations.

[Lathum]

Dak isn't a leader...

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I put together this chart. Quick explanation. I took all QBs since the 1998 class. Removed those with fewer than 10 starts, then most of the QBs with fewer than 50 starts who weren't active this season. That gave me 159 QBs. Listed is record, completion percentage, yards per completion and attempt, touchdown and interception percentage, and yards per attempt including sacks.

The last measure correlates most significantly (71%) with winning percentage, so the chart is sorted by YPA+Sk. Color codes are quintiles for each statistic. The chart shown removes most of the retired players who have less than 100 starts.

Nothing definitive here, just wanted to show the numbers. Totals are based on all games (including playoffs) through last week.

That's weird: I'm not seeing a chart/image, but when I quote your post, there's clearly img-html-code in your post. Going to the direct link (http://www.solecismic.com/compqb.jpg) worked for me.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

If you are talking about the umpire and not the referee, this is something I am wondering myself. I wonder if our resident official could clarify.

The umpire is not in the camera shot when the QB draw play starts. After he comes running in and spots the ball, he then sets up behind the defense as time runs out. IIRC, the umpire sets up behind the offense in hurry up situations which would explain why he would be so far behind the play on the QB draw. I am not sure why the umpire took a different position at the end of the game than he did on the QB draw. If I were reaching for excuses for the Cowboys, I would say they did not expect the umpire to be coming from the position behind the offense to spot the ball.

Of course none of this is to excuse the Cowboys' incompetence. Just a curiosity in the game operations.

My experience was only with 4 and 5 man crews in Jr. High level games so not exactly equivalent

This is the best video I've seen of where that Umpire was at the end of the play (and the most entertaining).

Cowboys and 49ers playoff game ends in wild fashion, a breakdown - YouTube

It sure seems weird to me but I'm not sure.

[larrymcg421]

So apparently the final ruling is they did get the snap off, but the spike came when time expired. One thing I've never understood is why rely on the spike? Why don't teams have some play designed for this type of situation that they can just call on the fly? You might even catch the defense off guard.

[Thomkal]

Looks like both Watt and Conner will start tonight for my beloved Cards. Cards are 7-0 when Watt starts, but I think it will only be a matter of time until both get injured again and are out of the game. Sure hope I'm wrong though.

[markprior22]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

So apparently the final ruling is they did get the snap off, but the spike came when time expired. One thing I've never understood is why rely on the spike? Why don't teams have some play designed for this type of situation that they can just call on the fly? You might even catch the defense off guard.

I didn't understand either why, with 12-13 minutes left and down by most likely 3 scores, there wasn't any urgency or up tempo by Dallas. SF is a team that can really milk the clock so it seems to me like any seconds that could be saved are important. A few seconds ended up being critical at the end. Terrible game all around and SF deserved the win.

[Ksyrup]

Cowboys went 6-6 outside their division with 4 home losses.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

My experience was only with 4 and 5 man crews in Jr. High level games so not exactly equivalent

This is the best video I've seen of where that Umpire was at the end of the play (and the most entertaining).

Cowboys and 49ers playoff game ends in wild fashion, a breakdown - YouTube

It sure seems weird to me but I'm not sure.

yeah that's what I watched. To me it's like the umpire/ref whomever spots is like standing 25-30 yards off the play and then something in him triggers him to remember to sprint to the play. I would think they would have been following the play a bit more closely. At least moving up and anticipating that there would need to be a spot with a running clock.

[Simbo Klice]

I feel like the umpire will generally be closer if he expects to have to run in and spot the ball, but the qb draw was out of left field and they were trying to keep things clear for a pass. If the Cowboys had notified the refs of their playcall, I think things would have gone cleaner and they would have been able to get a spike. That’s pressure football for you though, idiotic move either way in my book.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I put together this chart. Quick explanation. I took all QBs since the 1998 class. Removed those with fewer than 10 starts, then most of the QBs with fewer than 50 starts who weren't active this season. That gave me 159 QBs. Listed is record, completion percentage, yards per completion and attempt, touchdown and interception percentage, and yards per attempt including sacks.

The last measure correlates most significantly (71%) with winning percentage, so the chart is sorted by YPA+Sk. Color codes are quintiles for each statistic. The chart shown removes most of the retired players who have less than 100 starts.

Nothing definitive here, just wanted to show the numbers. Totals are based on all games (including playoffs) through last week.

What is intriguing is how low Kurt Cousin's winning percentage and where he lands on this chart, and then how high Lamar Jackson's winning percentage is versus how low he lands on the chart. This suggests that Kurt Cousins has been a really good QB on bad teams, and Jackson is a really lucky QB.

[NobodyHere]

I'm going to throw it out there that that the cowboys tried to line up a couple yards beyond where Dak started to slide. The ref didn't move the ball far enough back, probably because all the cowboy players were standing in his way.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by markprior22

I didn't understand either why, with 12-13 minutes left and down by most likely 3 scores, there wasn't any urgency or up tempo by Dallas.

The "duh" takeaway is that this is not a well-coached team

Moore has some good concepts for the offense, and they generally do well to get a lot from their talent...

But on balance the team is not well disciplined, well prepared, or well managed in the throes of a pressure situation and all that caved in on them yesterday to end this season

Maybe Moore and a stalwart crusty D-first DC is the way to go there, but who knows what sort of HC Moore would be. They could promote him just to avoid losing him to a HC gig, however.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

What is intriguing is how low Kurt Cousin's winning percentage and where he lands on this chart, and then how high Lamar Jackson's winning percentage is versus how low he lands on the chart. This suggests that Kurt Cousins has been a really good QB on bad teams, and Jackson is a really lucky QB.

I am at a loss to explain Lamar Jackson. His passing numbers do not correlate well with winning games, yet Baltimore wins a lot of games with him (and not with Huntley) and clearly defenses have to put in new looks and packages just to address what he does.

When I retooled my spreadsheet, it was in an attempt to capture the contributions of quarterbacks who run well. And I think it did that for everyone else. It shouldn't be that hard to figure, since a quarterback run, designed or semi-designed when the opportunity opens, generally gains an average of 6-7 yards if the quarterback has good speed. Which is in the neighborhood of a pass attempt. So you're replacing the throw itself with the run.

Jackson runs so much that it may enter another category on its own. Jalen Hurts is entering that territory, and with a good YPAS (6.47 yds), but it doesn't seem to help Philadelphia as much.

I've looked at adding the rushing attempts (call it YPARS) and it doesn't change the correlations because it really doesn't change the yardage per play. There's also a 10% positive correlation between number of sacks and number of rushing attempts.

So I've tried looking at players where there's less difference between YPA and YPARS (which averages 1.0 yds). Jackson is unusually low there (0.71 yds), and #1 is Peyton Manning (0.52 yds). I wonder if there's anything in that stat. It doesn't correlate as well with winning as the other yardage stats, but since it's measuring something very different, any good correlation (31% in this case) is interesting. Some players who have very high differences include Garoppolo (1.28 yds), Russell Wilson (1.20) and Deshaun Watson (1.40).

Another piece to consider is how much responsibility a quarterback shoulders. Garoppolo is on the very low end in average plays per game (runs + sacks + pass attempts) with 29. But most starters who are considered elite are in the high 30s. Jackson is at 40, Watson and Josh Allen 41. Anything that's not in this category is a run play, which has a lower average gain (around 4 yards). But heavier dependence on run plays runs the clock faster, which limits your opponents' opportunities. In other words, Garoppolo's higher numbers have less to do with winning than simply a benefit of a good ball-control offense.

But no matter what I try that's in the realm of reasonable, I can't get Jackson to "pop" without stretching reason.

Some of the more advanced stats incorporate yards to go as a piece of the puzzle. Maybe those illuminate something about Jackson. You also can't discount the extraordinary difference in career length between quarterbacks who run a lot and the rest of the quarterback pool.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I'm going to throw it out there that that the cowboys tried to line up a couple yards beyond where Dak started to slide. The ref didn't move the ball far enough back, probably because all the cowboy players were standing in his way.

I'm having a hard time feeling a sense of injustice for the Cowboys. There simply wasn't enough time left for a run play up the middle.

There was time for two real shots at the end zone, or one more try at a sideline chunk for a shorter shot at the end zone. I don't understand the play call. It felt like a Hollywood movie play call, where the defenders magically bounce off the heroic ball carrier as he weaves his way toward the end zone.

[RainMaker]

I know people are making a big stink about that last play but even if they had spiked it, it would have required them to score from the 23 on a single play. I would guess the percentages of that are not much higher than a hailmary.

Basically, the Cowboys lost for a lot of reasons and that extra play was probably not going to matter.

[PilotMan]

Romo's points were totally valid.

1) he's got to go down sooner, after 10 yards max.
2) he's got to get the ball to the official, not his C.

Game over.

Anything else is simply an excuse.

[Atocep]

If the official had done anything outside what is normal for the rest of the game in a way that negatively impacted the Cowboys I could see the argument. Like if the official had jogged to the ball to spot it up until this play and then decided to walk his way down the field after the Dak run then, ok, we have something. To fault the official for not putting himself in a better position to sprint to the ball to spot it isn't a valid argument.

They called a poor play for the situation, didn't execute what needed to be done to speed things up after the play, and lost. That's it.