2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Hilarious and awful all at the same time.

Here's Ted Cruz's Most Cringeworthy Attempt at Human Affection Yet

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Hilarious and awful all at the same time.

Here's Ted Cruz's Most Cringeworthy Attempt at Human Affection Yet

It's just sad. Be careful what you wish for in life, I suppose.

[lighthousekeeper]

I get the sense that Christie's campaign is quickly coming to an end.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf..._spent_in.html

Christie's biggest source of campaign cash between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31 came from the law firm of Gibson Dunn & Crutcher, according to a NJ Advance Media computer-assisted analysis of FEC data. Its employees gave $65,500. Gibson Dunn conducted the taxpayer-financed probe that exonerated Christie in the George Washington Bridge lane closing scandal.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Hilarious and awful all at the same time.

Here's Ted Cruz's Most Cringeworthy Attempt at Human Affection Yet

I tried to go in with an open mind that kids can be huge brats. Lord knows what people think about me sometimes when my kids start throwing a huge fits in public. But that was very unusual. He clearly is focused on his own life and doesn't have much of a relationship with the little girl. Sad.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

I get the sense that Christie's campaign is quickly coming to an end.

Meet the top donors to Chris Christie's presidential campaign | NJ.com

His "bring a mop" response to the flooding in NJ after pretty much declaring there was no flooding (or severely limited) didn't help much either. Even ticked off Republican mayors who had backed him for years.

[JPhillips]

Are we going to do predictions?

I'm going with: Trump 30 Cruz 22 Rubio 15

I don't like my Trump prediction, but Cruz seems to be sinking and I can't see Rubio making a huge leap and winning. That leaves Trump almost by default. There's a better or at least easier argument to make as to why each of them can't win, but someone has to come out on top.

[albionmoonlight]

My prediction:

Cruz, Trump, Jeb!

I think that Cruz has the best ground game, which will help him win even though Trump has more support. The more I see Rubio, the less I think he has a chance. He's great on paper, but he seems not ready for prime time. I've been high on Christie as a dark horse, but Iowa does not seem like his place at all. Which leaves an opening for Jeb. I think that a lot of the folks who are anti-Trump/Cruz will switch to Jeb at the last minute, giving him a huge third place win.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Are we going to do predictions?

I'm going with: Trump 30 Cruz 22 Rubio 15

I don't like my Trump prediction, but Cruz seems to be sinking and I can't see Rubio making a huge leap and winning. That leaves Trump almost by default. There's a better or at least easier argument to make as to why each of them can't win, but someone has to come out on top.

I think Trump wins and Cruz does well but I think Paul will pick up a lot more than the predicted 2 or 3 and possibly even come in third. His dad's supporters understood how to win these caucuses (as you can see by how well he did in Iowa as compared to some other states) and while he isn't his dad by any means it should mean more than only a couple of percent.

[vex]

My Prediction: Trump 27 Rubio 23 Cruz 21

[PilotMan]

Trump 25, Rubio 25, Cruz 23

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Trump 25, Rubio 25, Cruz 23

I wish. Go Rubio!

[Scarecrow]

Trump - 27
Cruz - 22
Rubio - 21

and going out on a limb...

Paul comes in 4th.

[Ryche]

Cruz 28, Trump 25, Rubio 22

[bhlloy]

It would be massively interesting to the race if Cruz can take Iowa but I don't think it's going to be close. I think Trump has it by at least 5 points

[revrew]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

It would be massively interesting to the race if Cruz can take Iowa but I don't think it's going to be close. I think Trump has it by at least 5 points

I wouldn't take the odds on that bet. Among political insiders in Iowa right now, the big question is whether or not Trump falls to 3rd. I'll take the not, because I don't see real passion on the ground for Rubio, just a general, "Eh, I like that guy."

So my prediction: Cruz 31, Trump 25, Rubio 18. (And Rand Paul does have a decent chance of coming in 4th).

But if I'm right about Rubio supporters, it will mean an even bigger victory for Cruz.

Also, word on the ground is we're looking at a record turnout for Iowa R Caucus. The question is whether that turnout is from Trump's popularity or Cruz's organization. If the former, Trump can still win. If the latter, Cruz could win by 10.

[Solecismic]

I'm going to stick with my prediction of Cruz, with Trump second and Rubio a very close third.

After watching the last debate, it seems candidates are more settled on their messages. The persistent polls indicating voters see Cruz as the most knowledgeable plays into this, as well as the traditional power the religious right holds in Iowa voting.

[QuikSand]

34 Cruz
29 Trump
18 Rubio

[QuikSand]

...and if it's a massive wave of turnout, it's for Trump and he wins. If it's only a modest bump over 4 years ago (which is what I expect) then Cruz wins easily.

[revrew]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

...and if it's a massive wave of turnout, it's for Trump and he wins. If it's only a modest bump over 4 years ago (which is what I expect) then Cruz wins easily.

Normally, that's what I'd say, too. But I know something you don't know and even the mass media doesn't know ... We'll see if I'm right later tonight.

[QuikSand]

Is bigfoot involved? #crossesfingers

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by revrew

Normally, that's what I'd say, too. But I know something you don't know

Spoiler

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by revrew

Normally, that's what I'd say, too. But I know something you don't know and even the mass media doesn't know ... We'll see if I'm right later tonight.

Iowa is not left-handed, either.

That was my best guess. What the mass media knows would fit into one of those little Amazon shipping boxes, so there's a lot to guess about. The snowstorm is tracking a little more north than it was, so the big population centers are much less affected than what we thought a few days ago.

I just think Trump skipping the debate is something serious voters won't like.

Edit: Damnit, albion, warn a guy if you're going to do that.

[albionmoonlight]

sorry. image a little bigger than expected (just like Mr. Gilmore himself). Will spoilertag.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Is bigfoot involved? #crossesfingers

suddenly I'm interested in tonight's caucus.

[Arles]

Cruz seems like the most organized to get votes, so I would go:
Cruz 29
Trump 27
Rubio 22

[Solecismic]

Gilmore was funny Thursday. You don't get to complain about Carly Fiorina having two straight questions when you've skipped so many debates that no one knows if you're even running anymore.

I never posted my review of the last debate. Nothing terribly exciting happened, so I'll be very brief:

Winners: Bush, Cruz, Christie. Bush is getting pretty good at this, though it's probably too late. Cruz and Christie were solid on message. Cruz is tacking hard to the right, which helps now, but will hurt later. Christie seems unable to gain ground on Rubio, which is all he should care about right now.

OK: Rubio, Paul. Rubio stopped the bleeding from his last performance. Paul had some good moments, but some equally bad moments.

Losers: Carson, Kasich, Trump. Carson was odd. Kasich is running for veep, badly. Trump made a huge mistake by not being there.

Undercard: No one moved the needle at all. Fiorina is still trying, but every answer is the same with her.

[Thomkal]

So how many (if any) drop out after Iowa?

[vex]

I wouldn't be surprised if they all stay in until after New Hampshire.

[ISiddiqui]

Some of the really bottom ones might - the undercard folks. I can easily see Santorum and Huckabee drop out, since Iowa really is their best chance (they both do much worse in NH demographics).

[JonInMiddleGA]

Idle hypothetical here:

Would we get different winners (I mean year to year, not just this year specifically) or the same winners if all states held their primaries on the same day?

Phrased better perhaps: how much of an impact on final outcomes do you think that hypothetical change would make? Different winner every other cycle? Once every 48 years? Something else?

I guess the most obvious change that occurs to me offhand is that we'd have more frequent "brokered conventions"

[ISiddiqui]

Oh, I think there'd be a lot of difference. It seems that states change their decision making based on how candidates do earlier on, and sometimes that is because their preferred candidate has dropped out. Though sometimes, it's because they want to jump on a winning train.

[JPhillips]

I think IA, NH and SC do a fairly good job of representing the GOP electorate and a terrible job of representing the Dem electorate. I think there's a pretty good likelihood of Dem races turning out differently if the early states were more urban and minority. That may not always mean a different winner, but it would wrap things up more quickly.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think IA, NH and SC do a fairly good job of representing the GOP electorate and a terrible job of representing the Dem electorate. I think there's a pretty good likelihood of Dem races turning out differently if the early states were more urban and minority. That may not always mean a different winner, but it would wrap things up more quickly.

I'm not sure at all how relevant NH is for the GOP nomination. It seems particularly to overstate the chances of candidates that have no national appeal.

[bhlloy]

Sounds like Carson is done? Heading home to Florida rather than campaigning the next two states.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm not sure at all how relevant NH is

This would be me. Sorry, DD.

[EagleFan]

This sucks. I want Trump nowhere near the presidency. I saw what he did in AC. I can't stand Cruz. I like Rubio and would not be against Jeb, think he would be better than his brother. I don't see those two making it.

I would NEVER consider Sanders, he is a joke. I may hate myself for considering Hillary if it were her against one of the first two. This may be the seventh sign...

[cuervo72]

/whispers

Michael Bloomberg

[EagleFan]

Could that actually gain serious traction and not just splinter one segment?

[cuervo72]

No idea.

[wustin]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

This sucks. I want Trump nowhere near the presidency. I saw what he did in AC. I can't stand Cruz. I like Rubio and would not be against Jeb, think he would be better than his brother. I don't see those two making it.

I would NEVER consider Sanders, he is a joke. I may hate myself for considering Hillary if it were her against one of the first two. This may be the seventh sign...

Out of the big four (her, Sanders, Trump, and Cruz) she is the only one who realistically can get shit done with Congress.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm not sure at all how relevant NH is for the GOP nomination. It seems particularly to overstate the chances of candidates that have no national appeal.

I just meant demographically representative.

[albionmoonlight]

Trump making a big move at PredictIt. Don't know what info that's based on, but its certainly there.

[Dutch]

41% in...

Cruz 29%
Trump 26%
Rubio 20%

[larrymcg421]

Trump now in a free fall at Predict It. Down to 15 cents, with Cruz at 75 cents.

Also, Rubio is gaining in the overall primary prediction. He's up to 38 cents vs. Trump's 44.

[JPhillips]

If I were more confident, I'd buy the hell out of Trump at that price. He's in great shape in NH and should be able to handle a close loss, if he even loses.

[JPhillips]

Does Jeb! put himself through another humiliation or call it quits now?

[GrantDawg]

No doubt, the big winner looks to be Rubio. He is pulling the strong third, and really on the heels of Trump. Now will come the argument for him being the strongest establishment candidate to challenge Trump. I really don't expect a mass exodus of establishment candidates yet (though the low end of the religious right candidates probably will all drop like flies the next couple of days). But if Rubio can pull a strong second in NH, expect the crop and endorsements to start.

[PilotMan]

I'm not surprised at all by Rubio's strong showing. This is just the beginning. I can see the establishment following in behind him much more and closing the gap. I've been picking Rubio for the whole thing. I'm still high on that option.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

But if Rubio can pull a strong second in NH, expect the crop and endorsements to start.

Yep. A great strong showing by Rubio and it suddenly becomes a 3 man race for the GOP crown.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Could that actually gain serious traction and not just splinter one segment?

Conservative co-worker told me today that if his choices were Clinton, Trump or Bloomberg, he'd vote Bloomberg.

So...who knows.