COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[whomario]

Originally Posted by AlexB

There was interview with an epidemiologist professor on the BBC just now who said that the stats so far show that the peak number of cases seems to be 4 weeks after lockdown, and then they start to plateau...

So immediately I’m thinking well that sounds like we’ve got to have at least 6 weeks of lockdown then right? 4 for it to peak, however long the plateau lasts, then at least 2 weeks for symptoms to show/not in those remaining?

Are there even any more cases of Lockdowns being more than 3 weeks ago outside of Asia ? (City of Lodi in Italy is the only one i can think of). Seems a bit early to be sure due to the difference of what a lockdown there means compared to here.

But yes, this sounds about right in terms of a general timeframe i think. The virologists/epidemiologists over here seem to agree that you basically think in 2 week periods (which likely represents 2 cycles of transmission) and so the first is to maybe adjust a bit after, the 2nd to get a decent idea what the effects were and then work out scenarios and strategies starting during/after the 3rd.

But that's a best case really and i am not sure the UK is on track ... Do you know if there are any plans to increase testing ? The discrepancy between deaths and cases seems way to high and without a lot of tests it's near Impossible to trust the data.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

The problem is that it's true of /all/ of the data from fatality rate to what a "mild" case is. The biggest body of data is from the China cohort but it's pretty clear that it's heavily biased if not downright altered. Most of the other data is too recent to draw meaningful conclusions. And pretty much every other country is playing fast and loose, too, be it from deliberate incompetence (USA) to garden variety incompetence (Italy) to selective data interpretation (Germany).

At the end of the day, the "official" count of the infected and dead is going to be dwarfed by the actual count. It'll be a fascinating case study down the road. But I don't want to be part of that data.

SI

If you refer to the "you dont count all deaths" accusations by the italian right wingers, that is not actually the case. Pretty much every death so far has had the pre-existing conditions attached if there were any. Even cancer patients in palliative care are counted and that'd be the first you would cross of a list.

[Arles]

I have to admit, I really like what our republican governor in AZ is doing. He basically laughed at Trump's "business usual" by Easter comment and said he is running a bunch of independent models. He's look at the worst case and getting ready. He thinks it will be at its worst by late April/Early May in AZ so he's setup a plan to double the available hospital beds in 3 weeks. He's also reassuring the public when he can and imploring everyone to continue social distancing. Basically, he's doing what Trump should be doing.

[JPhillips]

A number of governors have handled this well, the problem, though, is that Trump is going to make it impossible to maintain stay at home or social distancing rules.

If this had happened a year earlier, Cuomo might have run away with the nomination.

[whomario]

Ultimately i think the difference in death rate will come down to staying under capacity, providing protection to health workers (14% of cases in Spain are health workers, Italy was 10 a few days ago) and of course protecting the elderly and others in closed systems like retirement homes.

Just read that a home in New Jersey is assuming everybody is infected and moved everybody to a different facility now because of staff shortages due to infections

Entire senior home in New Jersey, 94 people, presumed to have coronavirus

[SirFozzie]

Not quite political: Attack on Coronavirus-treating hospital foiled, perp shot and killed (had planned a car bomb attack due to a stay in place order)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/u...-shooting.html

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Arles

I have to admit, I really like what our republican governor in AZ is doing. He basically laughed at Trump's "business usual" by Easter comment and said he is running a bunch of independent models. He's look at the worst case and getting ready. He thinks it will be at its worst by late April/Early May in AZ so he's setup a plan to double the available hospital beds in 3 weeks. He's also reassuring the public when he can and imploring everyone to continue social distancing. Basically, he's doing what Trump should be doing.

It will be interesting to see which states, if any, follow the Trump plan and try to either open by Easter, or dont fully shut down. Would love to see the fallout in those states compared to the ones who continued to socially distance. Will also be interesting to see how insane Trump gets as more and more institutions don't even try to make Easter a realistic goal.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

On Mon, CNN was reporting that US hit a milestone of more than 100+ deaths.

On Tue, CNN is reporting 163 deaths.

Hopefully Wed won't see similar increase.

On Wed evening, CNN is reporting 216 deaths for total of 921.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

On Wed evening, CNN is reporting 216 deaths for total of 921.

220 would have been the projected number for today, and 297 will be the projected number for tomorrow.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by whomario

If you refer to the "you dont count all deaths" accusations by the italian right wingers, that is not actually the case. Pretty much every death so far has had the pre-existing conditions attached if there were any. Even cancer patients in palliative care are counted and that'd be the first you would cross of a list.

True - that's not fair. Another (more likely) theory about Germany is that they're being much more efficient in their testing. They actually may be much closer to their actual number infected than many other countries. Meanwhile, we're showing 66K official cases in the US and probably have more than 10x that. So the 929 deaths/66K cases = 1.4%. Whereas if we have 10x more cases, suddenly, we're at only 0.14% (of course that number would still be significantly higher as everyone infected has not recovered yet and many will still die).


SI

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

True - that's not fair. Another (more likely) theory about Germany is that they're being much more efficient in their testing. They actually may be much closer to their actual number infected than many other countries. Meanwhile, we're showing 66K official cases in the US and probably have more than 10x that. So the 929 deaths/66K cases = 1.4%. Whereas if we have 10x more cases, suddenly, we're at only 0.14% (of course that number would still be significantly higher as everyone infected has not recovered yet and many will still die).


SI

I think they are much more accurate with their testing to this point. Their numbers are still moving along the same scale and rate as the rest of the world, they just have more positive tests, that aren't lining up with their deaths. But if you overlay their death toll, it's still a standard growth curve.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

On Wed evening, CNN is reporting 216 deaths for total of 921.

Anybody know why that's so different from the worldometer site? (164 and 944). Just another thing that makes it hard to really know anything when there are so many different #s out there and no apparent 'official' designation for one being more accurate than another.

[Atocep]

I stopped in Safeway after work to get a handful of things to get us into next week and the stay at home order has definitely changed things. Our Safeway now has taped lines throughout the store at 6 foot intervals to demonstrate the 6 foot distance. The checkout lines, while having the 6 foot intervals, also have plastic shields installed between you and the cashier when checking out. I also saw at least 10 people wearing masks and people were obviously more aware of social distancing. Everyone was generally doing their best to stay away from one another.

The shelves looked more or less similar to how they've looked during the other 2 rounds of panic hoarding. No bread, no water, no TP or paper towels, almost no soups or pasta.

[Edward64]

I don't know how they go about making this decision (I assume medical ethicists are involved). But yeah, I wouldn't expect extraordinary efforts to save me if there is a long line. I'm "soylent green" like okay with it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...ot-resucitate/

Hospitals on the front lines of the pandemic are engaged in a heated private debate over a calculation few have encountered in their lifetimes — how to weigh the “save at all costs” approach to resuscitating a dying patient against the real danger of exposing doctors and nurses to the contagion of coronavirus.

The conversations are driven by the realization that the risk to staff amid dwindling stores of protective equipment — such as masks, gowns and gloves — may be too great to justify the conventional response when a patient “codes,” and their heart or breathing stops.

Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago has been discussing a do-not-resuscitate policy for infected patients, regardless of the wishes of the patient or their family members — a wrenching decision to prioritize the lives of the many over the one.
:
:
Several large hospital systems — Atrium Health in the Carolinas, Geisinger in Pennsylvania and regional Kaiser Permanente networks — are looking at guidelines that would allow doctors to override the wishes of the coronavirus patient or family members on a case-by-case basis due to the risk to doctors and nurses, or a shortage of protective equipment, say ethicists and doctors involved in those conversations. But they would stop short of imposing a do-not-resuscitate order on every coronavirus patient. The companies declined to comment.

[Mota]

Earlier in the thread I shared my mom's condition and what a COVID-19 funeral could look like.

Well it looks like it will be happening in the next week or so, you never know exactly when, but it is coming quickly as things are deteriorating. The good news is that she is not in pain and is mostly sleeping as her body is shutting down.

As for the funeral, they're not going to have one until the COVID thing has passed. They will cremate her and wait for a better time for the ceremony.
So maybe it's in the summer. But she was a teacher in a small town, and still lives in the same town, so there's no way that it'll be a small funeral. It will be hard not to have the closure for possibly a long period of time, but we're not going to (and the funeral home would not let us) have a large number of people congregating at this time. I have a son with Type 1 diabetes, and my grandmother is 95 years old. So the thought of somehow these people or anybody else in my family getting sick because of the funeral is not going to happen thankfully.

Thanks for all the kind thoughts and prayers from everybody who sent them earlier in the thread!

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Anybody know why that's so different from the worldometer site? (164 and 944). Just another thing that makes it hard to really know anything when there are so many different #s out there and no apparent 'official' designation for one being more accurate than another.

No idea but never really felt good about the worldometer site. And FoxNews also have their own tracker.

I figured I'll stay consistent and report the CNN stats.

[JPhillips]

God bless, Mota.

[tarcone]

Sorry to hear, Mota. Prayers with you and yours.

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Anybody know why that's so different from the worldometer site? (164 and 944). Just another thing that makes it hard to really know anything when there are so many different #s out there and no apparent 'official' designation for one being more accurate than another.

I've wondered that too. Yesterday Worldometer had 225 deaths which was higher than CNN. Maybe they have different starting and ending times?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Mota

Earlier in the thread I shared my mom's condition and what a COVID-19 funeral could look like.

Well it looks like it will be happening in the next week or so, you never know exactly when, but it is coming quickly as things are deteriorating. The good news is that she is not in pain and is mostly sleeping as her body is shutting down.

As for the funeral, they're not going to have one until the COVID thing has passed. They will cremate her and wait for a better time for the ceremony.
So maybe it's in the summer. But she was a teacher in a small town, and still lives in the same town, so there's no way that it'll be a small funeral. It will be hard not to have the closure for possibly a long period of time, but we're not going to (and the funeral home would not let us) have a large number of people congregating at this time. I have a son with Type 1 diabetes, and my grandmother is 95 years old. So the thought of somehow these people or anybody else in my family getting sick because of the funeral is not going to happen thankfully.

Thanks for all the kind thoughts and prayers from everybody who sent them earlier in the thread!

Oh man I am so sorry. My heart breaks for your family

[Brian Swartz]

That's my best theory as well. They are using GMT which we probably aren't using in the USA. That makes the daily comparisons quite problematic no matter what you use, because there's no way to compare on different continents - unless you use whatever the local timezone is there but then you'd not be able to sync them up for a current-day number.

Edit: Looking at the Fox one: it's last 24 hours, and they break it down by US and global/world. CNN appears to be using similar numbers to them, just without a tracker. Not that it's a massive deal, but I like the worldometer one because it breaks it down by country and being US-centric about this more than is already natural isn't healthy, at least for me - it matters to everybody what happens to everybody, if you catch my drift.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Mota

it looks like it will be happening in the next week or so, you never know exactly when, but it is coming quickly as things are deteriorating. The good news is that she is not in pain and is mostly sleeping as her body is shutting down.

Always rough even in the best of times

[JPhillips]

We’re handing out checks to every man woman and child for nothing. Why won’t that discourage work?

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

We’re handing out checks to every man woman and child for nothing. Why won’t that discourage work?

I always look to the sign in the nation parks about not feeding animals because they become dependent on people feeding them.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Mota

Earlier in the thread I shared my mom's condition and what a COVID-19 funeral could look like.

Well it looks like it will be happening in the next week or so, you never know exactly when, but it is coming quickly as things are deteriorating. The good news is that she is not in pain and is mostly sleeping as her body is shutting down.

As for the funeral, they're not going to have one until the COVID thing has passed. They will cremate her and wait for a better time for the ceremony.
So maybe it's in the summer. But she was a teacher in a small town, and still lives in the same town, so there's no way that it'll be a small funeral. It will be hard not to have the closure for possibly a long period of time, but we're not going to (and the funeral home would not let us) have a large number of people congregating at this time. I have a son with Type 1 diabetes, and my grandmother is 95 years old. So the thought of somehow these people or anybody else in my family getting sick because of the funeral is not going to happen thankfully.

Thanks for all the kind thoughts and prayers from everybody who sent them earlier in the thread!

I am so sorry that you and your family have to go through this.

[PilotMan]

Mota that's truly awful. I am so incredibly sorry that you're mom and family are caught up in this tragic moment in time.

[thesloppy]

So sorry Mota. I hope you and your dad got to spend some time with your mom.

[ISiddiqui]

Mota, I'm really sorry to hear that. Not being able to have a funeral (and a memorial who knows when) has to be really hard as well.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by tarcone

I always look to the sign in the nation parks about not feeding animals because they become dependent on people feeding them.

Umm wow I had to reread that to be sure I didn’t misread that. That is one of the more callous and insensitive comparisons I have seen on here. Hopefully, neither you or any of your family are a “hungry bear” needing to be fed by someone someday my friend. SMH.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Mota

Earlier in the thread I shared my mom's condition and what a COVID-19 funeral could look like.

Well it looks like it will be happening in the next week or so, you never know exactly when, but it is coming quickly as things are deteriorating. The good news is that she is not in pain and is mostly sleeping as her body is shutting down.

As for the funeral, they're not going to have one until the COVID thing has passed. They will cremate her and wait for a better time for the ceremony.
So maybe it's in the summer. But she was a teacher in a small town, and still lives in the same town, so there's no way that it'll be a small funeral. It will be hard not to have the closure for possibly a long period of time, but we're not going to (and the funeral home would not let us) have a large number of people congregating at this time. I have a son with Type 1 diabetes, and my grandmother is 95 years old. So the thought of somehow these people or anybody else in my family getting sick because of the funeral is not going to happen thankfully.

Thanks for all the kind thoughts and prayers from everybody who sent them earlier in the thread!

Mota,

I am very saddened for this tough heartbreaking event man.

[Arles]

Mota, so sorry for what you are dealing with. Prayers to you and your family.

[Radii]

Mota, I'm so terribly sorry

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by Mota

Earlier in the thread I shared my mom's condition and what a COVID-19 funeral could look like.

Well it looks like it will be happening in the next week or so, you never know exactly when, but it is coming quickly as things are deteriorating. The good news is that she is not in pain and is mostly sleeping as her body is shutting down.

As for the funeral, they're not going to have one until the COVID thing has passed. They will cremate her and wait for a better time for the ceremony.
So maybe it's in the summer. But she was a teacher in a small town, and still lives in the same town, so there's no way that it'll be a small funeral. It will be hard not to have the closure for possibly a long period of time, but we're not going to (and the funeral home would not let us) have a large number of people congregating at this time. I have a son with Type 1 diabetes, and my grandmother is 95 years old. So the thought of somehow these people or anybody else in my family getting sick because of the funeral is not going to happen thankfully.

Thanks for all the kind thoughts and prayers from everybody who sent them earlier in the thread!

My condolences to you and your family, Mota.

[Danny]

That really sucks Mota, I'm sending positive thoughts to you and your family.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by whomario

Are there even any more cases of Lockdowns being more than 3 weeks ago outside of Asia ? (City of Lodi in Italy is the only one i can think of). Seems a bit early to be sure due to the difference of what a lockdown there means compared to here.

But yes, this sounds about right in terms of a general timeframe i think. The virologists/epidemiologists over here seem to agree that you basically think in 2 week periods (which likely represents 2 cycles of transmission) and so the first is to maybe adjust a bit after, the 2nd to get a decent idea what the effects were and then work out scenarios and strategies starting during/after the 3rd.

But that's a best case really and i am not sure the UK is on track ... Do you know if there are any plans to increase testing ? The discrepancy between deaths and cases seems way to high and without a lot of tests it's near Impossible to trust the data.

Yes, they are trying to ramp up testing, and anti-bodies when the latter is available. The government said aiming to build towards 250,000 daily tests yesterday, but not sure in retrospect whether that was covering both types of test

At the moment they have tested c.100,000 total to put that in context

[AlexB]

Sending out love to Mota

[whomario]

Sincere condolences mota

[SirFozzie]

God bless you and your family Mota

[whomario]

Hospitals across U.S. consider universal do-not-resuscitate orders for coronavirus patients - Anchorage Daily News

I think its imperative to get the message across that this is not merely an issue due to the number of patients but because it is just about the worst sort of illness to get an insane amount of patients at the same time.
Fast progression once bad enough to be in the hospital, prolongued and man-power intensive treatment that entirely hinges on a limited ressource (ventilators) and high risk of infecting the staff you desperately need.

And dont forget that as staffs are shorthanded or as this spreads into areas not accustomed to large numbers of intensive care cases you end up with a lot of healthcare professionals who are much less equiped to handle the situation or as safe-footed in procedures. Heck, a lot will have chosen their specific speciality or the hospital/region precisely to not have to deal with such things as often.

Recently a doctor from New York shared his daily routine and he was emotionally and physically stretched already. And that guy worked the Ebola Outbreaks in Africa. The friends i know in hospitals are scared shitless thinking about having to work with the Potential influx of high risk patients every day rather than the odd one here or there if at all.

[tarcone]

So much for the Hippocratic oath. What an effed up world we live in.

[Icy]

Spain just bought 1,640,000 fast test (15 mins) from China... that have shown a 30% detection ratio when minimum should be 80% so it's even better to throw a coin to see if you have it or not.

Sad that we have to face this kind of scams or low quality issues due to the urgency.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Icy

Spain just bought 1,640,000 fast test (15 mins) from China... that have shown a 30% detection ratio when minimum should be 80% so it's even better to throw a coin to see if you have it or not.

Sad that we have to face this kind of scams or low quality issues due to the urgency.

Knowingly bought them or only found out after the fact ? I mean, either bad and is another reason why, again, you can't allow this thing to overload healthcare systems. Because then you have to use a ton of really shitty solutions to try and get by ...
I mean, it's only a matter of time before someone will use some medication widespread before assertaining properly if the benefits really outweigh the cost. Especially for stuff you would give the 'medium-sick' to prevent them from potentially getting worse (without knowing for certain if they would). The impulse is absolutely understandable, which is why you don't want to get to a point where this seems reasonable ...
Same with taking unethical shortcuts with a Vaccine.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by whomario

Knowingly bought them or only found out after the fact ? I mean, either bad and is another reason why, again, you can't allow this thing to overload healthcare systems. Because then you have to use a ton of really shitty solutions to try and get by ...
I mean, it's only a matter of time before someone will use some medication widespread before assertaining properly if the benefits really outweigh the cost. Especially for stuff you would give the 'medium-sick' to prevent them from potentially getting worse (without knowing for certain if they would). The impulse is absolutely understandable, which is why you don't want to get to a point where this seems reasonable ...
Same with taking unethical shortcuts with a Vaccine.

Kiryas Joel leaders urge doctor to stop making videos about KJ virus cases - News - recordonline.com - Middletown, NY



You mean like the doctor who went on Hannity and claims to have treated 350 patients with hydroxychloroquine with no negative outcomes?


SI

[Ben E Lou]

Ugh. So sorry, Mota.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Kiryas Joel leaders urge doctor to stop making videos about KJ virus cases - News - recordonline.com - Middletown, NY

You mean like the doctor who went on Hannity and claims to have treated 350 patients with hydroxychloroquine with no negative outcomes?

SI

At first glance, I thought the guy in the pic looks like a younger GRRM.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Some friends of mine from Tucker posted today about their mother/grandmother having died last night. She was 92. She was in hospice and they were unable to visit her during her last week. They're a close family with five kids, all in their 30s. Yesterday they had a "social distance" birthday party for the youngest. (Lawn chairs in the front yard of the parents' house. Well spread out.) The mom and dad and are in their late 60s. I don't know what they'll do about a funeral.

From FB a few minutes ago...


"This is the obituary for my mother. Sadly we can’t gather to mourn together as a family. We hope to have her service in July. Thank you for all your kind words and virtual hugs. We all appreciate it."


We're in tough times, y'all. Not only
No funeral, but no hugs or visiting with folks from
Outside the immediate household. Ugh.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Kiryas Joel leaders urge doctor to stop making videos about KJ virus cases - News - recordonline.com - Middletown, NY



You mean like the doctor who went on Hannity and claims to have treated 350 patients with hydroxychloroquine with no negative outcomes?


SI

yeah, kinda ...

The most promising repurposed medication btw (at least acording to german/european scientists and doctors) might be Remdesivir, a drug developed to treat Ebola that eventually never really got used much because it ultimately proved less effective than alternatives.
And the company that developed it has pretty controversial track record for their prohibitive pricing of medication (f.e for Hep C and HIV). Seems like they'd rather sell a lot for a decent prize then nothing for a shitton, but you never know ...

[AnalBumCover]

So sorry, Mota.

[BYU 14]

Condolences to you and your family Mota

[tarcone]

My next door neighbor had his in laws over yesterday. They are over a lot. And they were hanging in the garage like nothing out of the ordinary was happening. I like the guy, he's a good friend, but, man, I wanted to go over and chew some ass.

Today on my wifes FB feed the wack job anti-vaxxer posted that "nurses dont send their kids to the doctor iunless a bone is sticking out and they are worried, so take this seriously people."

I told my wife to ask if they come out with a vaccine will she let her kids get it.

People are dumb.