2023 NFL Regular Season Thread

[miked]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

I don't think I could disagree more. If Campbell had made the same decision to attempt the field goal when he was down by three, they might've had a chance to win there at the end.

I think I read an older article that said teams score a TD 70% of the time of a goal-to-go situation. You go up 28-7 it's a different ball game.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

lmao I bet Ben johnson is NO LONGER on ANYONE'S list to get hired as a HC next year

word is the WAS announcement is imminent

[CrimsonFox]

I hope she has a big celebrity box party up there and steals all the focus

oh yes and during halftime show they shine a spotlight on her and hugh jackman doing it in the bean dip

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

word is the WAS announcement is imminent

It'll take my brain a little bit to get accustomed to Washington being a real team with a competent owner again.

[QuikSand]

same

[CrimsonFox]

can't they just sell the team to san diego so they can get a cool name and uniforms again?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

word is the WAS announcement is imminent

Not sure why running up 31 on a top defense with Jared Goff as your QB would be disqualifying.

[kingfc22]

49ers vs. Chiefs in the first Super Bowl played in the Raiders home stadium

Chef's kiss

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I don't think the line is thin. I think it just moves depending on results.

I probably would have kick the FG on the first 4th down attempt. I would have wanted to put points on the board. But, I have watched and listened to enough football experts that say you can't expect to beat the better team on the road with field goals and coaches need to trust their offense to pick up two yards especially after watching how that offense performed in the that first half. The 4th and 3 is a bit sketchier for me but again I think the trend has been for coaches to try to get the TD first. in that situation.

I can't get mad at Dan Campbell for doing the same thing I have watched Dan Campbell do in all the Lions games I have seen this season. This time it did not work out. The Lions probably don't reach the conference title game if he was not super aggressive in other games.

The first FG they passed on would have put them up three scores, in the second half of a conference championship game on the road. Sorry, you don't pass those chances up. NEVER, no matter how you play in the regular season, no matter what the "experts(?)" say. I like Campbell but he cheated himself, his team, veteran Lions like Sanders that were attending the game, and every Lions fan IMHO.

You said you probably would have kicked the FG on the first 4th down and I totally agree. They should have taken the points and put the pressure back on the Niners. Take a little wind out of their sails, ie "you scored? yeah so did we." This isn't the regular season and a FGA is not a conservative call. It's the smart call. This 4th down is where the game got away from the Lions. You take the points and put your D back on the field maintaining some momentum and a 3 score lead, instead of "sorry guys, it's going to get noisy, I guess the pressure is on you.".

Not a Lions fan so not crushed, but I did want to see them get to the SB.

[Lathum]

I can not wait for these people who track private planes start tracking Taylor Swift on her way from Japan to the Superbowl.

[Jstraub]

Sweed, you nailed it man. Thats the critical context that is lacking in much of this conversation. Conceding to field goal attempts ( at least the first one of the 3rd quarter) was the easily the right move for all the reasons you listed. I'm also not a Lions fan but really wanted the 49ers to lose.

I've watched this game and a few other Lion's games. These "going for it" decisions appear reckless, arrogant, and misguided more often that not. Then after game he doubles down.

This man's ego is the biggest obstacle for the Lions taking the next step. the NFC is probably going to be wide open for the next few years at least. Will the Lions learn from this or "have no regrets". Lot of young talent on that team to just be relegated to "chance".

[dubb93]

There are some coaches in the league, Campbell included apparently, that just don't understand context. Just because the analytic guy says the numbers say you get more points by going for it in these situations on average does not account for the fact that you are playing the 49ers defense on the road in the NFC championship game with a chance to either extend the lead to three scores from two or tie the damn game in the fourth quarter.

Detroit really needs an adult in the room that understands context.

[thesloppy]

Being aggressive and taking extra risk when you are a 7 or 8 win team trying to make the playoffs makes a lot of sense, what is there to lose? But as soon as you turn into an actual good team that kind of aggressive risk taking starts to make less and less sense...in that case the 1 or 2 game swing that comes from that aggressive playcalling can improve your playoff positioning fractionally on the positive side, or knock a good team out of the playoffs entirely if your luck is bad.

It does seem like the Lions team has improved enough that they should actually turn away from the aggressive, high-risk playcalling that got them some of this success, but I also doubt they will.

[albionmoonlight]

Seen this kind of insane fact floating around a few places this morning: Every single NFL season ever has featured either Curly Lambeau, Tom Landry or Bill Belichick coaching in some capacity.

I can't see Bill taking an assistant job, so unless he gets a HC spot, this streak might end.

[Jstraub]

Regarding the super bowl betting line. I'm astounded people would bet against Reid and Mahommes. Do the line makers not watch these games?

The 49ers haven't played a complete game in a month. The were outplayed for 3/4 of the divisional round game and 1/2 of the Conference final, while at home, to inferior teams. Yeah they rebounded but either of those games could have gone either way down the stretch with the change of 1 play (head doink interception to huge gain; missed GB field goal).

Meanwhile the Chiefs beat solid teams, on the road. I know one thing, if the 49ers dont show up again in the first half, Reid will know how to close them out, unlike the past 2 teams that failed at it.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

wow that's a LOT of bad calls in a row. holy shit how howhowhow...why would you go for it there

Shortly after I left this thread, a buddy of mine called me up, and suggested that he wanted Detroit to kick the field goal once they got the ball inside the 20 with 1:30 ish left.

This strategy is a bit next level thinking for me. So much so, that the option never occurred to me. but I do guess that makes for the best imagined scenario for the "second" drive. If the kicker misses it, you're still screwed, but I think it would have been much more defensible than the path they actually chose.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

Shortly after I left this thread, a buddy of mine called me up, and suggested that he wanted Detroit to kick the field goal once they got the ball inside the 20 with 1:30 ish left.

This strategy is a bit next level thinking for me. So much so, that the option never occurred to me. but I do guess that makes for the best imagined scenario for the "second" drive. If the kicker misses it, you're still screwed, but I think it would have been much more defensible than the path they actually chose.

It's an interesting strategy. The most important things for Detroit in that situation is to score at least a field goal on that drive and get the ball back. Kicking early positions them for both since they're scoring early enough that with 3 timeouts they're getting the ball back I'd they can get a stop.

I don't know if any coaches have the balls to do that, but it's certainly something worth considering. I think JPhillips was the one that mentioned it here and it would have been a far better decision than how that drive ended up going.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Jstraub

Regarding the super bowl betting line. I'm astounded people would bet against Reid and Mahommes. Do the line makers not watch these games?

The 49ers haven't played a complete game in a month. The were outplayed for 3/4 of the divisional round game and 1/2 of the Conference final, while at home, to inferior teams. Yeah they rebounded but either of those games could have gone either way down the stretch with the change of 1 play (head doink interception to huge gain; missed GB field goal).

Meanwhile the Chiefs beat solid teams, on the road. I know one thing, if the 49ers dont show up again in the first half, Reid will know how to close them out, unlike the past 2 teams that failed at it.

Nevada sportsbooks made 41 million last year.

Thry know what they are doing.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by dubb93

There are some coaches in the league, Campbell included apparently, that just don't understand context. Just because the analytic guy says the numbers say you get more points by going for it in these situations on average does not account for the fact that you are playing the 49ers defense on the road in the NFC championship game with a chance to either extend the lead to three scores from two or tie the damn game in the fourth quarter.

Detroit really needs an adult in the room that understands context.

Where is the context of the Lions being on an 7 play 47 yard drive before that 4th down? Again, after that 1st half where they dominated the 49ers' defense on the road in the NFC championship game. The play before was the first 3rd down of that drive. The other bit of context is Campbell did not trust his kicker. I was driving home at the beginning of the 3rd and the halftime reporter said Campbell told her that he was giving serious thought to going for it at the end of the first half. Now that would be insanity!

While I do agree he made the wrong decision by going for it, it being the NFC championship game did not entered into the equation for me. You always take the points in that situation and if the kicker misses then so be it. My only contention is if the Lions had convert those 4th downs and won, he would have been deemed some version of Riverboat Dan. If he kicked the FGs and the kicker missed them, he would have been the coach who tightened up in the big moments and went against what he had done all year. Oh yeah and also the analytics argument would have been used against the big dumb jock.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Detroit really needs an adult in the room that understands context.

Or a kicker they believe is going to make a 45+ kick.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Or a kicker they believe is going to make a 45+ kick.

He’s 85% from 40-49 over the last three years. I know he had a bad season a few years ago (was it 2020?) but at some point you just got to let it fly. If you don’t trust him to kick a 46 yarder why is he on your roster? There are hundreds of guys out there that can make that kick. They passed on a 46 yarder and a 48 yarder.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by dubb93

He’s 85% from 40-49 over the last three years. I know he had a bad season a few years ago (was it 2020?) but at some point you just got to let it fly. If you don’t trust him to kick a 46 yarder why is he on your roster? There are hundreds of guys out there that can make that kick. They passed on a 46 yarder and a 48 yarder.

Doing some digging, he looks like he's 1 for his last 6 at that distance on grass

And had not attempted a field goal on grass this season prior to yesterday.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I bet he is, but the question is will he take a job? He turned down the Panther's job last year because he wanted to stay with the Lion's till they made the Super Bowl. Will he leave this year for the Commanders? We will most likely see by Tuesday.

That was a joke, son. Joke, that is...

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by dubb93

If you don’t trust him to kick a 46 yarder why is he on your roster? There are hundreds of guys out there that can make that kick.

Based on what? Kickers get replaced for performing poorly regularly precisely because not everybody can do it. To me, Badgley's career history screams replacement-level player. He's bounced around to various teams because he's the kind of guy you sign when you can't find a better option. Three different teams, including Detroit, had cut him this year.

[RainMaker]

One of those 4th down plays turned out great and the receiver just dropped a wide open pass. Not sure you can blame the coach for that.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Based on what? Kickers get replaced for performing poorly regularly precisely because not everybody can do it. To me, Badgley's career history screams replacement-level player. He's bounced around to various teams because he's the kind of guy you sign when you can't find a better option. Three different teams, including Detroit, had cut him this year.

Based on all the high school and college kickers that kick 46 yard field goals every year?

I mean I’m not arguing that he’s the best kicker in the league but after 2020 was a disaster the man has made 85% from 41-49. I just don’t buy the argument that Detroit’s coach doesn’t think he’s capable of kicking one from 46. 46 is routine in todays NFL. There were 21 kickers in the NFL that hit 80%+ from that distance this season including Badgley.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

One of those 4th down plays turned out great and the receiver just dropped a wide open pass. Not sure you can blame the coach for that.

yeah I've been thinking this too. "if all those missed passes were caught, he'd be called a genius."

In fact there was a 4th down play before that that I was shouting at him to go for it and he didn't.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Based on all the high school and college kickers that kick 46 yard field goals every year?

I mean I’m not arguing that he’s the best kicker in the league but after 2020 was a disaster the man has made 85% from 41-49. I just don’t buy the argument that Detroit’s coach doesn’t think he’s capable of kicking one from 46. 46 is routine in todays NFL. There were 21 kickers in the NFL that hit 80%+ from that distance this season including Badgley.

As a tangent, this is what baffles me about Purdue's kicking woes last year. It seems like HS kickers all over the place are booting 50 yarders, and you have a collection that goes 8 for 17, and only 5 for 8 under 40? You're supposedly a major college program, how can you not find a kicker that can't outkick a random student?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

Shortly after I left this thread, a buddy of mine called me up, and suggested that he wanted Detroit to kick the field goal once they got the ball inside the 20 with 1:30 ish left.

Not a no-brainer, but it crossed my mind too as a viable option. Or at the very least take a couple short-time, low-risk fade-type endzone shots, then kick.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Based on all the high school and college kickers that kick 46 yard field goals every year?

I mean I’m not arguing that he’s the best kicker in the league but after 2020 was a disaster the man has made 85% from 41-49. I just don’t buy the argument that Detroit’s coach doesn’t think he’s capable of kicking one from 46. 46 is routine in todays NFL. There were 21 kickers in the NFL that hit 80%+ from that distance this season including Badgley.

There's a difference between making a kick at some point and making it consistently. It's not about having a leg strong enough to get it there. Being nearly automatic on shorter kicks is one of the skills that seperates your average NFL kicker from those at lower levels. Many of the kicks in the 40-49 range are made from the shorter half of that range obviously, but here are kickers in the NFL this year who missed at least half in that range:

Chad Ryland (5/10)
Anders Carlson (4/8)
Greg Joseph (3/6)
Lucas Havrisik (2/6)
Graham Geno (3/6)

A number of other NFL teams could not find a kicker who could reliably make 40+ yard field goals. It's not as if Detroit is unique in this. Only four out of 41 kickers who tried even one kick from any distance attempted fewer FGs than Badgley. He had exactly one attempt from >40 yards, which he did make but it's one kick.

29 kickers tried at least 5 from the 40-49 range. Only four of them made all of them, including none of the top 10 in attempts. These kicks are most definitely not routine. San Francisco's Jake Moody, who has been on the positive side of this, had 3 kicks in the 40-49 range in the playoffs and missed two of them, one against Detroit. That's another factor that gets lost in this; if he makes that first-quarter kick which he usually does, it changes a lot of the later calculus.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

Shortly after I left this thread, a buddy of mine called me up, and suggested that he wanted Detroit to kick the field goal once they got the ball inside the 20 with 1:30 ish left.

I've never understood why teams don't do that. You can't rely on an onside kick anymore. Teams should be kicking that field goal as soon as its reasonably possible in those situations. Onside kicks are a 5% shot at best (probably lower when teams are expecting them), and then you have to convert after that so it's something like maybe 2%.

The odds of a field goal, 3 and out with timeouts, and a TD drive have to be a little better.

[stevew]

Steelers to hire hotshot 41 year old Billionaire offensive coordinator. I guess the remains of Arthur Smith’s career will be buried in the Ohio River

[QuikSand]

I like the Arthur Smith hire for Pittsburgh, fwiw

[GrantDawg]

Ben Johnson is staying with the Lions. He has pulled his name from consideration.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Ben Johnson is staying with the Lions. He has pulled his name from consideration.

Yes!

[QuikSand]

wow

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Ben Johnson is staying with the Lions. He has pulled his name from consideration.

lol I told ya!~

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I like the Arthur Smith hire for Pittsburgh, fwiw

Do ya? I wonder what George Pickens reaction is going to be when he is asked to block for the second string TE to throw to the third string TE in the endzone?

[GrantDawg]

Dola: I will say that Arthur Smith is going to love having Darnell Washigton on his team. Expect a lot of those WR targets to go to Washington instead.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Do ya? I wonder what George Pickens reaction is going to be when he is asked to block for the second string TE to throw to the third string TE in the endzone?

ok, i'm with everyone else on the way he mismanaged the Falcons, fine

his scheme with the Titans before that was surprisingly effective... remember that team managed to be a #1 seed while seemingly way overmatched by the usual suspect

i think he's salvageable and then some as an OC

[CrimsonFox]

I still love Bellichek in Washington
and Vrabel in Seattle

lol fuck the falcons, they deserve to lose

good for Arthur finding a home. that did surprise me

[stevew]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Dola: I will say that Arthur Smith is going to love having Darnell Washigton on his team. Expect a lot of those WR targets to go to Washington instead.

No way. The Steelers are forbidden from using a TE. It’s in the league bylaws somewhere.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Not a no-brainer, but it crossed my mind too as a viable option. Or at the very least take a couple short-time, low-risk fade-type endzone shots, then kick.

That's what I was saying. Set the line wherever the coach is comfortable, but when they get to it kick immediately and then play D or on-side and hope to get the TD. If you have to get both get one as quickly as possible and maximize the time to get the other.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

ok, i'm with everyone else on the way he mismanaged the Falcons, fine

his scheme with the Titans before that was surprisingly effective... remember that team managed to be a #1 seed while seemingly way overmatched by the usual suspect

i think he's salvageable and then some as an OC

I'm mostly joking, but I will say it is much easier to run an offense with Derrick Henry carrying much of the load.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I still love Bellichek in Washington
and Vrabel in Seattle

lol fuck the falcons, they deserve to lose

good for Arthur finding a home. that did surprise me

Who hurt you?

[Schmidty]

I’m so happy that Ben Johnson is staying in Detroit. I feel a lot better about next year with him back than I did before. The NFC North is going to be much rougher with Green Bay improving.

I wouldn’t complain much about Aaron Glenn leaving for Washington though.

[Lathum]

They can't really lack this much self awareness

Newsmax Host Greg Kelly on Taylor Swift:

“They’re elevating her to an idol.
Idolatry. This is a little bit of what idolatry, I think, looks like. And you’re not supposed to do that. In fact, if you look it up in the Bible, it’s a sin!”
pic.twitter.com/hTZErcc2A4

— The Intellectualist (@highbrow_nobrow) January 30, 2024

[GrantDawg]

Reports say Ben Johnson made the announcement he was no longer pursuing a Head Coaching job while the Washington Commander's brass was on a flight to see him. That's cold.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[molson]

Does going on a bunch of interviews before a playoff game potentially impact a coordinator's and team's performance? If I was a Lions fans I'd be psyched he's staying, but, would kind of wish he figured that out before doing lots of interviews during the playoffs.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by molson

Does going on a bunch of interviews before a playoff game potentially impact a coordinator's and team's performance? If I was a Lions fans I'd be psyched he's staying, but, would kind of wish he figured that out before doing lots of interviews during the playoffs.

I had wondered that same thing. We've all been to job interviews and it's one of the most worrisome things you can do. Preparing for such a high stakes interview while also preparing for a game with the highest stakes of your life certainly seems like a conflict of interest.