2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[JPhillips]

I can't wait to hear how Rubio has the experience to be President from the same people that said Obama was too young an inexperienced.

[Dutch]

We just wanted to cover our bases. We hear the Dem's are "cool" with either.

[NobodyHere]

This is why Cruz needs to be punched in the face.

Ben Carson Accuses Ted Cruz Of Using 'Dirty Tricks' To Win Iowa

ETA: There's also this

Ted Cruz under fire for controversial Iowa mailer

[nol]

Haha imagine being so dumb that you go to a caucus to vote for Ben Carson only to be told that he isn't running any longer, and instead of questioning it you just go "Shoot, I better vote for Ted Cruz instead."

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by nol

Haha imagine being so dumb that you go to a caucus to vote for Ben Carson only to be told that he isn't running any longer, and instead of questioning it you just go "Shoot, I better vote for Ted Cruz instead."

The real funny part is this:

Carson said his wife also witnessed Cruz supporters telling caucusgoers this at one site.

Imagine Carson being at the actual site, and that happens!

[panerd]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

If Cruz is eligible, then Obama was eligible even if he was born in Kenya, so I'm glad we wasted so much time on that.

There has been a lot of time wasted on Cruz as well. It's just that this time people on one side aren't just withholding an easily produced birth certificate and screaming racism the whole time to garner angry votes. The whole Obama thing was a complete farce and foolishness from the right AND also a complete political play from the left.

Is Ted Cruz a 'natural born Citizen'? Not if you're a constitutional originalist. - LA Times

Ted Cruz is not eligible to be president - The Washington Post

Ted Cruz is not eligible to run for president: A Harvard Law professor close-reads the Constitution - Salon.com

[PilotMan]

The whole Cruz birther thing is bullshit. Shouldn't be any question. It's not like he had to pass a citizenship test. He was born a citizen. That's all there is to it. Nothing more. No sense in even thinking about it. Just like the Obama stuff.

[JPhillips]

We don't and won't know if Cruz is eligible until he's elected and someone with standing sues. I would expect SCOTUS would say anyone born to a citizen is a citizen, but I can't guarantee that. The weakness in our system is that there's no way to get an opinion from SCOTUS without a law suit.

[QuikSand]

Rand Paul is apparently suspending...

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by panerd

There has been a lot of time wasted on Cruz as well. It's just that this time people on one side aren't just withholding an easily produced birth certificate and screaming racism the whole time to garner angry votes.

Obama first released his birth certificate (the one he had in his possession) in June 2008. and even let reporters examine the physical copy. Claiming he withheld his birth certificate is absurd.

The one that he supposedly withheld was the long form certificate, which was against Hawaii policy to release to anyone, including Obama himself. When the long form was finally released, it was only after Hawaii granted a one time exception because Obama's personal lawyer requested a waiver.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Obama first released his birth certificate (the one he had in his possession) in June 2008. and even let reporters examine the physical copy. Claiming he withheld his birth certificate is absurd.

The one that he supposedly withheld was the long form certificate, which was against Hawaii policy to release to anyone, including Obama himself. When the long form was finally released, it was only after Hawaii granted a one time exception because Obama's personal lawyer requested a waiver.

I completely agree that people like Trump and the birthers were desperately/annoyingly clinging to an issue to somehow get the "evil Obama" or as they like to say Barry Soetoro out of office. However (IMO) Obama played this out for all it was worth for political capital. Hawaii releasing wasn't the issue for all those years. It's nice to be able to paint your opponents as idiots.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

This is why Cruz needs to be punched in the face.

Ben Carson Accuses Ted Cruz Of Using 'Dirty Tricks' To Win Iowa

ETA: There's also this

Ted Cruz under fire for controversial Iowa mailer

Damn, reminds me of the Bush/Gore Florida vote where people were saying "Gore won Florida!" while the voting stations were still open. Some folks are shady as hell.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Rand Paul is apparently suspending...

Now, I seriously doubt his supporters go with Rubio...maybe Cruz, I guess?

[JPhillips]

In NH what's the bar that Rubio has to match to avoid disappointment? Is third enough or does he have to come in second? (With a win being an obvious triumph)

[vex]

The Rubio camp has been going for 3(Iowa), 2(NH), 1(SC) and I also think that sounds about right. A third in NH would seemingly kill all of his recent momentum.

[Solecismic]

Staying in the race past the first four is about money. Showing momentum in New Hampshire (moving past 15%, possibly) would give Rubio access to a lot of money.

The bar is lower than in past years because Trump, despite all his other faults, isn't searching for funding. So there are a lot of people on the sidelines waiting to jump in with their checkbooks.

[Thomkal]

How in the hell did this happen with Mr. Build a Wall, and kick Muslims out of the country?

Donald Trump ‘nominated for Nobel Peace Prize’ for 'vigorous peace through strength ideology' | People | News | The Independent

[Solecismic]

I heard the Onion had been purchased - didn't know the Nobel Committee bought it to troll Americans.

[NobodyHere]

I didn't know the Independent was a parody site.

[cartman]

Getting nominated for a Nobel Prize is kind of like applying to run for President. The process is fairly simple, so there are a few hundred names out there, but only a handful have an actual chance.

Here's the info: Nomination and Selection of Nobel Peace Prize Laureates

[albionmoonlight]

Trump going after Cruz's win as illegitimate seems to me like it will go over more as whining than anything. But we will see how voters react to it.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I didn't know the Independent was a parody site.

LOL

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I heard the Onion had been purchased - didn't know the Nobel Committee bought it to troll Americans.

heh

[Ben E Lou]

Santorum out.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Santorum out.

I thought the rule was that kind of talk isn't allowed on the board. REPORTED

[stevew]

What's Santorum going to do while waiting to launch yet another unsuccessful bid in 3 years?

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by stevew

What's Santorum going to do while waiting to launch yet another unsuccessful bid in 3 years?

Your mom?

[stevew]

.

[vex]

New national poll out and has Trump at 25, Cruz and Rubio both at 21.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p...onal_20416.pdf

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by vex

New national poll out and has Trump at 25, Cruz and Rubio both at 21.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p...onal_20416.pdf

Makes sense.

Still, Nate Silver has taught us to wait to see multiple polls before we be so bold as to declare a trend.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by stevew

.

That's only valid if you hang in circles that don't say that in response to everything. I'm not fancy enough to be in those circles.

[albionmoonlight]

‘No One Will Push You Into Running For President,’ Jeb Bush Softly Whispers Before Tucking In Sleeping Grandson - The Onion - America's Finest News Source

[corbes]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

‘No One Will Push You Into Running For President,’ Jeb Bush Softly Whispers Before Tucking In Sleeping Grandson - The Onion - America's Finest News Source

lol

[Solecismic]

It looks like Fiorina will be excluded from Saturday's debate in New Hampshire. The criteria was top three in Iowa, or top six in recent NH or national polling. So, while there are eight remaining candidates (I still don't count Gilmore), only seven will be on stage. It's "fair" in that ABC published the criteria and stuck to it. And Fiorina really isn't going to stay in this much longer regardless. Since her message is much more conservative, she wasn't going to catch on in New Hampshire anyway.

This week's polling shows a bump for Rubio in New Hampshire. That has to be because of his finish in Iowa. My guess is that only two of the moderate group (Rubio, Bush, Kasich, Christie) have the ability to compete in the expensive SEC primary. For now, that looks like Rubio and Kasich. Christie seems to have entirely lost his December bump. Bush isn't gaining traction, but does have money whereas Kasich does not and barely registers where he hasn't campaigned.

For Trump, the goal is simply to maintain the 20-point advantage suggested in the polls. He underperformed in Iowa, but I think that was all about blowing off the debate. He won't make that mistake again, but a poor debate performance on Saturday could hurt him.

Cruz will be shooting for third place. His politics don't play well in New Hampshire and he hasn't been there a lot. Holding on to third is actually a message of strength there.

I think the game is over for Carson and Fiorina and anyone moderate who can't reach double digits next Tuesday.

[dave731]

It really sucks for us Carson supporters but I think Cruz did us in in Iowa. We still finish 4th but 3 to 4 points higher from the looks of it. I hope this "Carson done wrong" thing gains some traction to stay relevant and he can somehow position himself favorably between Trump and Cruz in this upcoming debate. Looks like another candidate declaring his campaign is over could very well mean the campaign is over.

[stevew]

Carly should get her own solo kiddie table debate.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Dutch

That's only valid if you hang in circles that don't say that in response to everything. I'm not fancy enough to be in those circles.

Well your mother was dirty enough for those circles...

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Well your mother was dirty enough for those circles...

That's better. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

With 6 days to go before Iowa....

My thinking hasn't changed much, but here's where I am today:

1. If Trump is competitive in Iowa and wins NH then I think we can assume he wins SC & NV (where he also leads, though with less polling) because the question mark over whether his people show up at the polls will be answered.

2. If #1 happens, it's a Trump vs. Cruz race unless the "Establishment" can coalesce around Rubio before Super Tuesday, which functionally means everyone else dropping out and endorsing Rubio, and even then it looks tough.

3. If #1 doesn't happen, then it's a Cruz vs. Rubio battle, and if Trump's support (even a portion) moves to Cruz (which, to me, seems most likely), then it's over and Cruz wins.

So....................

Trump was clearly competitive in Iowa, but Rubio has walked away the big winner in the "narrative" (i.e. outperforming his polls). This has led to clear an unambiguous upticks in Rubio support in national and NH polls (aggregated).

So, two new underlying assumptions, based on Iowa:

1. You need to discount some of Trump's polling strength when translated to actual votes.

2. If there's a "silent" chunk of the GOP electorate, it looks like it might turn out for Rubio.

The other big influence right now is impacts on Cruz. There was negativity the day before and day of the Iowa caucus, and since he's not really on the radar for NH (a state, demographically, that's hostile to him), he's going to be off the radar for a couple of weeks and will clearly need a big win in SC.

Right now Trump has a 15-point lead in NH over Rubio. If that drops 5 points in 4 days (possible) and if we discount it 5 points based on the above, that makes it quite close. Plus, there's going to be a snowstorm in NH on Tuesday (Monday night into Tuesday). I'm not entirely sure who that favors.


Honestly? I think it's over and Rubio's going to be the candidate. Even if Trump manages to win NH, if Rubio gets anywhere close he keeps the "win" narrative going and if that's enough to get Bush, Christie and/or Kasich to drop and (better) endorse him, the Romney side of the party is going to coalesce around him and it's over.

Things that could stop this? Cruz does something to make himself less unlikeable and be the clear choice over Rubio for the Southeast part of the country. Or Trump somehow rebounds.

[Arles]

I think the Trump/Rubio dynamic is resembling the Clinton/Obama one from 2008. Big name candidate is running away in the early polls (Trump/Clinton), but the younger, more "hope" candidate beats early expectations and ends up catching fire in the eyes of primary voters. I'm still not sure where Cruz comes in on all this - it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up being a Gephardt/Santorum/Huckabee Iowa winner who doesn't have the legs for the duration. There's a certain type of Republican primary candidate that does well in Iowa, but lacks the appeal across the country.

[Solecismic]

At this point, I'd have to consider Rubio the heavy favorite to win the nomination. The questions I have remaining:

1. Will Rubio get the funding that Bush was getting? I think yes. Bush is tired of this, even if he is a better campaigner than he was. He's still clearly hating this process. Funny that the worse he does, the more I like him personally. I probably wouldn't feel that way if he were winning.

2. Will Trump learn from his mistakes? Some of them yes, some of them no.

3. Can Trump continue to dominate coverage once there's only one "moderate" left in the pool? I don't think he'll do well in that format.

4. Can Cruz recover from being disliked by just about every insider? Can he do well enough in the majority of states where his politics are too far to the right? I think the answer to both questions is no.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Arles

I think the Trump/Rubio dynamic is resembling the Clinton/Obama one from 2008. Big name candidate is running away in the early polls (Trump/Clinton), but the younger, more "hope" candidate beats early expectations and ends up catching fire in the eyes of primary voters.

I think that's probably right, but the big difference is that President Obama was tolerable to the Dem establishment. They certainly preferred Hillary, but once the voters started showing a preference, the establishment moved out of the way.

Trump does not have that. However, the GOP primary electorate seems as anti-establishment as any I can remember (I am too young to remember McGovern, Goldwater, or Carter). That might cancel things out a bit.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Cruz does something to make himself less unlikable

From what I'm hearing he hasn't done so in at least 25 years, not sure why he'd start now.

[JonInMiddleGA]

So basically if Rubio wins then it's a meaningless November since that worthless bastard won't do shit even if he wins.

Why not just vote for Hillary?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Things that could stop this? Cruz does something to make himself less unlikeable and be the clear choice over Rubio for the Southeast part of the country. Or Trump somehow rebounds.

I keep on thinking that Cruz can't do anything to make him less likeable.

But yet he keeps on finding ways that make me want to punch him in the face even harder.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

So basically if Rubio wins then it's a meaningless November since that worthless bastard won't do shit even if he wins.

Well, that's just your opinion, man.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

So basically if Rubio wins then it's a meaningless November since that worthless bastard won't do shit even if he wins.

Why not just vote for Hillary?

Yes & no. Him winning at the very least prevents the Democrats from ruining our country even more for those 4-8 years.

[PilotMan]

This is a great page that discusses how the momentum is going to shift throughout, what to expect and how each of the top 3 is going to win.

Which States Cruz, Trump and Rubio Need to Win

[QuikSand]

really cool article

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Yes & no. Him winning at the very least prevents the Democrats from ruining our country even more for those 4-8 years.

ummm...have you two met?