POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

PredictIt seems to think that it is either Shapiro or Walz. Everyone else's odds have gone way down.

I don't get the sense that that's based on anything real though. There's just a lot of people speculating about those two, and it seems like when that happens enough, people start to think that it's actual facts.

As always, those who are talking don't know, and those who know aren't talking.

I think there's way too much risk with Shaprio. Walz seems like the safe choice and a great pick to put opposite Vance.

[Thomkal]

At least it won't be an unknown governor from Alaska...

[albionmoonlight]

Walz and Beshear strike me as the two safest picks.

[Ksyrup]

All the reporting yesterday was that she was meeting with "at least 3" candidates, and every news outlet I saw had Kelly, Shapiro and Walz as those 3. So, it's likely 1 of them. If they are going double-stealth mode, I'd say that actually favors Beshear.

Obvious choice to me is Shapiro, despite the risks. He's still extraordinarily well-liked in an important state.

[larrymcg421]

There are good arguments for any of them...

Shapiro - Lock PA and reduce number of states to focus on.
Kelly - Biggest name and zero people dislike him. Arizona might end up more important than PA.
Walz - Folksy and relatable with few enemies.
Beshear - Knows how to make liberal arguments to purple state voters.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Obvious choice to me is Shapiro, despite the risks. He's still extraordinarily well-liked in an important state.

Crushes the gains they made with young voters and minorities. Also his coverup of that murder is going to be used by the GOP.

If the guy wants to run for President one day and go through, that's fine. Just not sure why you'd take any risk in this election when Walz or Bashear can do the same thing.

[HerRealName]

Walz would be the best pick. Shapiro would be the worst so I'm expecting Shapiro.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Crushes the gains they made with young voters and minorities. Also his coverup of that murder is going to be used by the GOP.

If the guy wants to run for President one day and go through, that's fine. Just not sure why you'd take any risk in this election when Walz or Bashear can do the same thing.

Yep. Young voters don't want him and unions don't want Kelly.

Beshear and Walz are good picks. I think someone from Minnesota has the potential to help in an area that you need in a close election.

[PilotMan]

If I'm thinking about this you move with the person that makes the strongest dissimilarity to Vance that you can. Vance is trying to curb the 'everyman' vote towards the party, but you can upend that by pointing to his college, VC and total flip flop in his opinion of trump and how that coincided with power and money. To do that you need a candidate that actually has some of those traits that he's espousing (without having). That would seem to take Kelly out. Beshear sounds good, he's from a state that is now reliably blue, and it neighbors OH (Vance). However, he's got name limitations, he's a cheer leader, but he doesn't strike that everyman vote at all imo.


Shapiro is definitely a politician and plays the political game well. Also from a neighboring state, but he doesn't strike that everyman vibe very well.

Walz does, but he doesn't really bring a state directly into play, but you have to think being from Minnesota that he helps with Wisconsin and Michigan more than Penn or AZ. He actually has the chops to back up his story, and he draws the most distinct line that Vance is trying to claim. He's also a man who looks like someone you could trust in the oval office. He also is good on the mic. His tagline has been very effective and you have to believe that his attitude might be able to come up with even more of those.



Walz is my bet. Or the bet that they probably should be making.

[Lathum]

I agree with rainmaker. I think Shapiro hurts the party. Let him run in a primary and the voters can choose. I think Walz or Kelly.

[thesloppy]

Seems like everybody is considering the VP choice entirely in relation to this election cycle, but this person also gets put in the on-deck circle for the Presidency. With Kamala ostensibly resetting that clock it's not an immediate concern, but does that effect anybody's choice, one way or the other?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Seems like everybody is considering the VP choice entirely in relation to this election cycle, but this person also gets put in the on-deck circle for the Presidency. With Kamala ostensibly resetting that clock it's not an immediate concern, but does that effect anybody's choice, one way or the other?

I don't think Walz has his sites set on the presidency so it would be a clean field for 2028 or 2032. That would let the younger group battle it out in the primary.

[GrantDawg]

Whoever it is, it seems the decision is officially made.

[GrantDawg]

He literally posted a picture of himself saluting a North Korean general. That is what is meant by "weird."

I have to say I’m torn about this post.

I can’t decide whether it’s more weird, stupid, or psycho. pic.twitter.com/8vyROBfehv

— George Conway (@gtconway3d) August 5, 2024

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

He literally posted a picture of himself saluting a North Korean general. That is what is meant by "weird."

I have to say I’m torn about this post.

I can’t decide whether it’s more weird, stupid, or psycho. pic.twitter.com/8vyROBfehv

— George Conway (@gtconway3d) August 5, 2024

One of the most embarrassing things a US president has done on the national stage. Not tan suits, not ice-cream, not riding a bicycle. Saluting a North Korean general. Not even returning a salute. Our commander in chief saluted this general.

[Ksyrup]

Look at the look on Mr. Flat-top's head, too. Like, WTF, really?

[RainMaker]

The problem with Shapiro is instead of spending his time hammering Republicans on abortion and other issues, he'll be playing defense. And if you're trying to hit Trump for being a criminal, it's not helpful to have someone on the ticket who likely covered up a murder.

I think it'll be Shapiro because of donors, but I think it's just a huge unforced error.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The problem with Shapiro is instead of spending his time hammering Republicans on abortion and other issues, he'll be playing defense. And if you're trying to hit Trump for being a criminal, it's not helpful to have someone on the ticket who likely covered up a murder.

I think it'll be Shapiro because of donors, but I think it's just a huge unforced error.

I agree with you that I don't see the positives over the negatives. The main thing you don't want your VP to be is a distraction (see Quayle, Dan; Palin, Sarah; Vance, JD).

[JPhillips]

It doesn't matter and no pick will make a difference in a month.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It doesn't matter and no pick will make a difference in a month.

This story will not be going away. It's actually going to get bigger. PA Supreme Court agreed to hear the case.

https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia...cide-manayunk/

Ellen Greenberg’s parents spent $500K and counting to prove their daughter didn’t die by suicide - pennlive.com

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It doesn't matter and no pick will make a difference in a month.

That's a nonsense statement because of the reasons I gave here:

Everything in a campaign is an accumulative effect. People try to qualify things using polls and such, but there is really no way to exactly measure what action played on the next action played on the next action that allowed the final action to sink in to make a final decision. Maybe the VP decision itself didn't make the difference, but then maybe it is the butterfly effect that makes something else more a positive or a negative than it would have been without it.
2016 was decided by 80,000 votes in three states. He basically lost in 2020 by the same number. With those types of margins of error, even the color of a flier might have made a difference."

How much time and attention will the campaign have to spend dealing with Shapiro's negatives? How will that pick color the view of undecided or wishy-washy voters to other campaign messaging? No poll is ever going to be able to messure that. With razor thin margins, the color jacket Harris wears at a campaign event could make a difference.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

This story will not be going away. It's actually going to get bigger. PA Supreme Court agreed to hear the case.

https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia...cide-manayunk/

Ellen Greenberg’s parents spent $500K and counting to prove their daughter didn’t die by suicide - pennlive.com

I had never even heard about this until it was mentioned today in this thread.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I had never even heard about this until it was mentioned today in this thread.

Me either, guess that wouldn't be a good look for her given who she is running against.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Seems like everybody is considering the VP choice entirely in relation to this election cycle, but this person also gets put in the on-deck circle for the Presidency. With Kamala ostensibly resetting that clock it's not an immediate concern, but does that effect anybody's choice, one way or the other?

I think it's more important for Shapiro than it is for Walz if being President is the goal. Shapiro is going to fade over time as Governor and become more unpopular with Democrats as views shift within the party. Him and friendly donors likely realize that this is a pretty important guy to have on the ticket before that takes place.

[Young Drachma]

LOL. Trump in 2028 is a delusion. Nobody has that kind of attention span. This is the last go-round for that.

Separately, it's mildly impressive that whoever the pick for VP is they haven't managed to get it leaked yet or if it's just not clear that they've signaled who the guy is. The reveal taking place in Philly would seem to make it clear it's Shapiro only because it's the one place where he can attract a crowd that's not likely to go rogue and boo him.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I think it's more important for Shapiro than it is for Walz if being President is the goal. Shapiro is going to fade over time as Governor and become more unpopular with Democrats as views shift within the party. Him and friendly donors likely realize that this is a pretty important guy to have on the ticket before that takes place.

Shapiro wants to be President and this is his quickest pathway. Walz would gleefully be a two-term VP and go back to the State Fair.

[GrantDawg]

Philly just makes sense for whoever the pick is because it is the closest major city in a battleground state to both DC and the campaign headquarters in Delaware.

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[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Young Drachma

Shapiro wants to be President and this is his quickest pathway. Walz would gleefully be a two-term VP and go back to the State Fair.

Agree. I just don't think Shapiro will ever have a chance to be President if he isn't the VP now. The party is going to look at him much differently in 8 years if he hasn't completely changed the narrative around him by being VP.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Agree. I just don't think Shapiro will ever have a chance to be President if he is the VP now. The party is going to look at him much differently in 8 years if he hasn't completely changed the narrative around him by being VP.

If Shapiro isn't the guy, what do you do with them during the reveal? I like the unity pic, but it'll be confusing with everyone knowing he's either the guy or the runner up.

[RainMaker]

I think it'll be Shapiro. The Philly opening makes sense and Dems always choose donors over voters.

[larrymcg421]

Walz started the day at .28 on PredictIt

He has now taken the lead at .52

[larrymcg421]

Walz already up to .59.

Feels like something is happening.

[larrymcg421]

triple dola

Maybe not. He has reverted back to .53

Wild ride here.

[GrantDawg]

https://x.com/SwannMarcus89/status/1...I0e92IIzg&s=19

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[Lathum]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

triple dola

Maybe not. He has reverted back to .53

Wild ride here.

That seems more like people buying and selling to bank a small profit.

[Brian Swartz]

Serious question: how is what PredictIt thinks relevant on this kind of thing? I don't think it's in my Top 50 of sources in terms of what's actually likely to happen. What don't I know?

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Lathum

That seems more like people buying and selling to bank a small profit.

Maybe, but it's notable that the consensus has settled around Walz as the favorite. Still lots of movement, but he hasn't gone below .53 since I posted that and is now at .64

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Serious question: how is what PredictIt thinks relevant on this kind of thing? I don't think it's in my Top 50 of sources in terms of what's actually likely to happen. What don't I know?

I'm not posting it to be an accurate source, but it is interesting to track what people who are putting actual money on the line say. When there's a large PredictIt movement, it can often signal something is going on. Or it could be people pumping and dumping.

[Ryche]

I think it is Walz and he should actually be really good in the biggest role for a VP, dealing with Congress. He was pretty popular while in the house and chaired Veterans Affairs. Pretty much the only people who don't like him are the far right who would never vote for a Dem anyway.

It also amuses me that he graduated from the same school as my sisters, just a couple years earlier.

[Ksyrup]

So the original Central Park bear story in the NYT was written by RFKs grand-niece.

Do we need yet ANOTHER Keenedy cover-up/conspiracy story?

[albionmoonlight]

Walz making a move on PredictIt

Either rumors out of control or there's fire behind the smoke

[albionmoonlight]

dola: I agree that PredictIt isn't the best source of what's going to happen. But it is a good source of what people think is going to happen

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Walz making a move on PredictIt

Either rumors out of control or there's fire behind the smoke

Just got breaking news update from CNN saying it's Walz.

[albionmoonlight]

Tell me more about Pikachu!

[Ghost Econ]

Why is he so creepy with children?

Elon Musk... probably.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Serious question: how is what PredictIt thinks relevant on this kind of thing? I don't think it's in my Top 50 of sources in terms of what's actually likely to happen. What don't I know?

Maybe time to move them up in your sources.

[GrantDawg]

There are people in the know that use that site to make money. Eventually, someone big is going to get caught.

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[Ghost Econ]

Why? It's no different than the various stock moves they make where nothing bad ever happens to them

[Young Drachma]

Can't believe they did it. Great pick and quite the Vance contrast.

[JPhillips]

lol

Mike Lee posted an attack video on Walz showing him saying that he went to Menard's alone and bought a filter for his furnace.

They'll need more than that.