Severe Weather

[Ghost Econ]

Starting day 10 without power and I think I'm getting a little annoyed. Finally saw our daughter for the first time in 5 days since she went to her grandparents once they got power.

I've been thinking, what incentive does Duke Energy actually have to push to restore power quickly? Bad PR doesn't matter, they're a government authorized monopoly. We literally can't use anyone else.

There's currently 70k in my area without power. The average cost per day for power usage at each home is about $6 or $7. That means they're losing about $500k per day. Expedited repair efforts in an emergency are at least 2-3x that every day. There's literally no financial incentives for the higher ups to allocate more than the bare minimum of resources to keep things profitable.

[cartman]

sure looking increasingly likely that Milton is going to look for his red stapler in the Tampa area

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

Starting day 10 without power and I think I'm getting a little annoyed. Finally saw our daughter for the first time in 5 days since she went to her grandparents once they got power.

I've been thinking, what incentive does Duke Energy actually have to push to restore power quickly? Bad PR doesn't matter, they're a government authorized monopoly. We literally can't use anyone else.

There's currently 70k in my area without power. The average cost per day for power usage at each home is about $6 or $7. That means they're losing about $500k per day. Expedited repair efforts in an emergency are at least 2-3x that every day. There's literally no financial incentives for the higher ups to allocate more than the bare minimum of resources to keep things profitable.

Man, that really sucks. When Hurricane Harvey hit Houston, my boss was without power for nearly two weeks at his place in Tomball. And that was with crews that are used to dealing with power restoration after a storm. I can only imagine the troubles these linemen are having in areas that don't get storms like this. Sending good thoughts that the power situation is alleviated soon.

[GrantDawg]

Someone is going to end up getting killed over this foolishness.



[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Well I may have some firsthand accounts by tomorrow night. By a strange set of circumstances, there seems to be a pretty fair chance 15 and I are going to be assisting with some volunteer efforts in Buncombe County (where it appears the most deaths have occurred) tomorrow afternoon.

So, yeah, this did happen. We connected with Samaritan's Purse and were assigned to a clean-up crew for a house in Royal Pines, which is a bit southeast of Asheville. In that entire area, there are lots of US/State Highways that run parallel to rivers/streams, and on the uphill side of the road there's a neighborhood basically cut into a hillside, and that was the case here. No big water runoff path was carved through this neighborhood, so flooding was a non-issue, but the number of downed power lines was....staggering. On the road, in yards, hanging in the air with just enough clearance on one side of the road to get a car through. Power lines everywhere. As best as I could tell, there were maybe 60-80 homes in the area, and I never saw a single one that didn't have at least one tree down in their yard, and roughly a third of them had at least one tree that had fallen on a structure. Between it being a narrow road winding through the neighborhood and all the dangling power lines, it wasn't easy to find parking near the home we were assigned to. (There were roughly 40ish people in our group, typically no more than 2-3 people in a car.) The homeowner was a 60-70ish year old lady. Spry, in good physical shape, looked leathery, like she loved to work in her yard for hours at a time. She had a big woodshed with firewood that I'm guessing she was used to cutting herself...but she was completely overwhelmed at the impossible task. She lives alone. Has been there for 40 years. Insurance will pay for the repairs to the deck from the tree that hit it, but there were four other good-sized trees down in her yard, along with several other smaller ones. It's not like the neighbors can pitch in to help her when their homes/yards are in as bad a shape as hers.

But yeah, 40-50 people, 3 chainsaws. Many hands make light work. Probably the worst part was parking in the neighborhood and walking past several other homes where just one or two people are outside trying to do this type of clean-up. Our team leader did go and talk to anyone and ask if they needed help, but of course papers/liability/etc. has to happen before the volunteers can just start on another home. But anyway, yeah, with that many people, we got all of the trees and debris out of there and got the home "contractor-ready" in a little over 2 hours. Seeing all of the other houses with just as much to be done, but seeing this sweet lady's gratefulness for the help, I was reminded of the parable of the little boy and the starfish. What we did may not have made a giant difference, but it sure made a difference to Ms. Belle. My 15yo actually had a long conversation with her in which Belle told my daughter that she'd thought about just ending her life before the SP folks came by a couple of days earlier and got her signed up for clean-up help.

We drove into Black Mountain on the way home. It was devastating. Several parking lots just filled with supplies and people standing in line to get them. (Shockingly, neither FEMA nor the National Guard was confiscating any of the supplies. ) The roads were all brown from the mud that had washed through there. Main road into Montreat from there was almost completely destroyed from the creek overflowing and rushing all the way down from there into Black Mountain.

Other little things:

• For the last hour-ish of the drive on I-40 into the mountains, there was evidence of at least one downed tree every 100ish yards or so. I'm talking trees that had fallen onto the road itself, not just ones down on the hillsides to the side. An ENORMOUS amount of clean-up has already been done on that road.
• As we got close to the SP main base for Buncombe County, the last few miles of the highway had a sign that was clearly newly-placed that said something like "low visibility, next 5-6 miles.) I wasn't sure what that was all about until we went a little farther: a bunch of cars driving on an interstate that was covered with mud a week earlier kick up a LOT of dust.
• The SP folks were really pushing us to come back in November. They currently plan to be there through 11/30, and said that they wouldn't be at all surprised if it isn't significantly longer than that, as there's just sooooo much damage
• Fun fact that might make both conservative and liberal heads explode a little bit: as we finished up, our site leader made sure to have us sign a sheet with our names and number of hours we volunteered. Why? Oh, to report them to meet their soft match requirements on their largest grant. (They're mostly funded by private donations, but they do get grants.) Where does the largest grant for SAMARITAN'S FREAKING FRANKLIN GRAHAM PURSE come from???? You guessed it, boys and girls! FEMA!!!
• Despite our site leader explicitly telling us that, no more than 30 seconds later when she asked if anyone had any questions, someone raised their hand and asked "we brought some supplies. Where should we take them so FEMA doesn't get their hands on them?" I'm thoroughly impressed at the ability of our site leader (who is an Asheville native and had multiple friends lost their lives) to hold her tongue in that moment, but, uh, her face might have betrayed her.

[Atocep]

My dad is working in the Asheville area right now. His company was contracted by the federal government and Verizon to start rebuilding lines in that area.

A guy on his team found a body 3-4 days ago and it shook him pretty bad. The group he's with, which is pretty big considering the number of companies and federal workers in the area, shut down operations for a day because a body was found at a campsite and that body led to finding 7 more.

He hasn't been to Black Mountain and some of the really bad areas but they're out working the lines all day, have no running water, and are sleeping in tents.

[GrantDawg]

My wife talked with the owner of an optical office in Biltmore Village. She said if they reopen, it would take two years very optimistically.

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[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

• Fun fact that might make both conservative and liberal heads explode a little bit: as we finished up, our site leader made sure to have us sign a sheet with our names and number of hours we volunteered. Why? Oh, to report them to meet their soft match requirements on their largest grant. (They're mostly funded by private donations, but they do get grants.) Where does the largest grant for SAMARITAN'S FREAKING FRANKLIN GRAHAM PURSE come from???? You guessed it, boys and girls! FEMA!!!
• Despite our site leader explicitly telling us that, no more than 30 seconds later when she asked if anyone had any questions, someone raised their hand and asked "we brought some supplies. Where should we take them so FEMA doesn't get their hands on them?" I'm thoroughly impressed at the ability of our site leader (who is an Asheville native and had multiple friends lost their lives) to hold her tongue in that moment, but, uh, her face might have betrayed her.

Oh FFS, x2.

And I know you don’t do things for the kudos, but good on you for demonstrating (again) that you do walk the walk.

[Ghost Econ]

In shocking news, Duke Energy pushed their estimate for getting power back to 10/8 at 11:45 PM. I don't even know why I bother any more. We live literally less than a mile from city hall so it's not like we're in some unreachable exurb.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

What we did may not have made a giant difference, but it sure made a difference to Ms. Belle. My 15yo actually had a long conversation with her in which Belle told my daughter that she'd thought about just ending her life before the SP folks came by a couple of days earlier and got her signed up for clean-up help.

I can't think of a better father-kid thing to be doing. It'll definitely make her a better person. Your daughter will remember this experience long after you're gone and pass the story down to the next generation. Congrats.

[GrantDawg]

There is still hope Milton weakens or it hits further south (the last being the most likely), but if it hits north of Tampa as a CAT 4 or 5, it is going to be catastrophic. It is crazy to have two catastrophic hurricanes this close in time.

[Ghost Econ]

God really hates those liberal states of... checks notes... Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Tennessee.

[Ksyrup]

It's expected to strengthen to a 4 and then weaken to a 3 (still bad). Similar to the hurricane that took this path in 1921, I think it was. You know, back when Warren G. Harding first greenlit the Hurricane Path Repositioning System that Biden/Harris perfected earlier this year in anticipation of election year hurricane shenanigans.

[Lathum]

The latest far right rumor is the government can control the weather and is using these hurricanes as election interference. The insufferable levels of stupidity from the far right never ceases to amaze me.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Lathum

The latest far right rumor is the government can control the weather and is using these hurricanes as election interference. The insufferable levels of stupidity from the far right never ceases to amaze me.

So the government is more powerful than an act of God then? Good to know

[Ghost Econ]

HurrIcane Path SysTEm of RepoSitioning, actually.

HIPSTERS is in the name, people wake up.

[JPhillips]

Technically it will be labeled post-tropical, but there's a tropical storm forecast to hit France in a few days.

[albionmoonlight]

It is so MAGA to assume that the government can control the weather and instead of using that power to keep hurricanes from hitting the USA, they use it to kill their domestic enemies.

Every accusation is a projection/confession.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

HurrIcane Path SysTEm of RepoSitioning, actually.

HIPSTERS is in the name, people wake up.

I didn't spend enough time thinking about it and couldn't come up with a WOKE acronym (Weather something or other...). This works just as well.

[GrantDawg]

Milton is already a CAT 4, and is bordering CAT 5. It is expected to weaken, but the question is how much?

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[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I didn't spend enough time thinking about it and couldn't come up with a WOKE acronym (Weather something or other...). This works just as well.

Weather Operations Knowledge Evaluation System... But we all know it means Weather Originator to Kill Enemies.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Milton is already a CAT 4, and is bordering CAT 5. It is expected to weaken, but the question is how much?

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Now it is a Cat 5

[GrantDawg]

Watched a meteorologist (her name is "Tornado Ali" on Tik Tok. My favorite meteorologist handle), doing a mea-culpa on this. She had said last week, along with most meteorologists, that this system looked like it would be a tropical depression that would run along the Florida coast just bringing rain. The problem is it went further west, sort of slow rolled and allowed the water in the gulf to heat up again. There was also supposed to be a wind sheer that would have sapped energy from the storm, but that is gone. She is generally not a panic person, but she said this was looking very bad. The speed in which it is moving and exploding bigger is going to pick up more surge water than Helene. There were spots. Helene hit 20 foot surge. This is possibly 2-3 feet higher.
The thing that is a comfort to remember, they were very wrong and what this system was. They can be wrong and what it will become. Hopefully, they are wrong down and not wrong up.
Btw, Florida is expecting five inches of rain before this storm even hits.

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[cartman]

one of my big customers is based in Clearwater, and they are shutting everything down this evening

[HerRealName]

I talked to my parents yesterday (S of Tampa) and started sending them hotels where they could get to in like 5.5 hours if they left yesterday afternoon. I called them this morning and they didn't leave. I don't get it. They have nothing going on, there's no reason for them to stay. It's so frustrating.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

I talked to my parents yesterday (S of Tampa) and started sending them hotels where they could get to in like 5.5 hours if they left yesterday afternoon. I called them this morning and they didn't leave. I don't get it. They have nothing going on, there's no reason for them to stay. It's so frustrating.

Thoughts with you man. They spend your childhood worrying about you and encouraging you to make smart choices. And then one day the shoe is on the other foot.

[albionmoonlight]

My hope is that since this has been in the news for a few days as a "We ain't kidding. Get the Fuck Out" storm that more people will evacuate than normal.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Watched a meteorologist (her name is "Tornado Ali" on Tik Tok. My favorite meteorologist handle), doing a mea-culpa on this. She had said last week, along with most meteorologists, that this system looked like it would be a tropical depression that would run along the Florida coast just bringing rain. The problem is it went further west, sort of slow rolled and allowed the water in the gulf to heat up again. There was also supposed to be a wind sheer that would have sapped energy from the storm, but that is gone. She is generally not a panic person, but she said this was looking very bad. The speed in which it is moving and exploding bigger is going to pick up more surge water than Helene. There were spots. Helene hit 20 foot surge. This is possibly 2-3 feet higher.
The thing that is a comfort to remember, they were very wrong and what this system was. They can be wrong and what it will become. Hopefully, they are wrong down and not wrong up.
Btw, Florida is expecting five inches of rain before this storm even hits.

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I get most of my serious weather reports from Bam Weather. He’s not a Florida guy, he mostly covers Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, and Kentucky but he posted a warning two days ago before it was even a tropical storm that this weather event was going to become worst possible case scenario and people should be evacuating early. He’s continued to post about it ever since. I found it odd that he was so passionate about a weather event so far out of his area of coverage, but unfortunately it seems he was right.

[GrantDawg]

Weather nerds are weather nerds. Ali is in Tennessee. One of the best meteorologists is James Spann out of Birmgham. They don't have to live in the area affected to read the models and the radar. I get it. If my life had taken a different path, I would be right there with them.

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[cartman]

we were this close to having GD be "THE WEATHER EXTERMINATOR"

[GrantDawg]

Good Lord. Again, will likely weaken before it gets to Florida, but the people on the Yucatán Peninsula are getting hammered.

#HurricaneMilton #MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS...
...RESIDENTS IN #FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS#hurricane #NOAA #FL pic.twitter.com/a3sPcRfqxz

— National Hurricane Center (@NWSNHC) October 7, 2024

[GrantDawg]

Marco Rubio "Several years ago I asked @NHC_Atlantic to show me what the worst case storm hitting Florida would look like What they showed me back then is almost identical to the #Milton forecast now"

[Lathum]

Well thankfully for little Marco if Trump gets elected there will be no more NHC.

[Edward64]

Ouch.

I've always thought it would be great to have a 3rd or 4th floor condo with a balcony facing the beach in Tampa-St. Pete. Might be better to get something in Orlando.

[RainMaker]

I really hope this moves south a great deal because the impact areas seem really bad. Buildings are not built to withstand that kind of a surge in that area. It'll be catastrophic.





[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

I talked to my parents yesterday (S of Tampa) and started sending them hotels where they could get to in like 5.5 hours if they left yesterday afternoon. I called them this morning and they didn't leave. I don't get it. They have nothing going on, there's no reason for them to stay. It's so frustrating.

I would keep pushing. This kind of reaction is pretty scary.

NBC6's @JohnMoralesTV is the longest tenured TV meteorologist in south Florida. When he gets this serious, this emotional, on the air, viewers pay attention: pic.twitter.com/iiECZ8KaHx

— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) October 7, 2024

[HerRealName]

My brother and I both failed to convince them. Their next door neighbors' exterior walls are all cinder block so that's their fall back plan. I pointed out the strong walls won't help if there's no roof but they aren't budging. They went out to pick up even more supplies which means probably they bought 30 lbs of meat and 10 gallons of milk that will all spoil.

[Ghost Econ]

It only took 253 hours or 2 James Franco arms, but we finally have power.

[GrantDawg]

Congrats.

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[Lathum]

Tampa Bay mayor

“I can say without any dramatization whatsoever: If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you’re gonna die,” Castor told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Monday.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

It only took 253 hours or 2 James Franco arms, but we finally have power.

yay for James Franco!

[cartman]

Whoa

https://x.com/nbergwx/status/1843444771135861007?s=46&t=4btQdqAec7xfOuXOhFVJOg

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

My brother and I both failed to convince them. Their next door neighbors' exterior walls are all cinder block so that's their fall back plan. I pointed out the strong walls won't help if there's no roof but they aren't budging. They went out to pick up even more supplies which means probably they bought 30 lbs of meat and 10 gallons of milk that will all spoil.

May I suggest telling them just to get out of the evacuation zone if they are in one?

The idea of traveling 5-6 hours is rare unless evacuees are going to stay with family members and plan on staying for awhile or if they are having their expenses paid for by their employer or something. This is especially the case with gas stations all over the state running out of gas so any long distance driving could be an issue. Once you are no longer in the flood zone, most people are prepared to suffer with the inconveniences of the loss of power, boil water notices alongside their neighbors as long as they are all close to home. Unfortunately the chance that it will drop to a CAT Three go provide all the incentive to stay.

Good luck.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

May I suggest telling them just to get out of the evacuation zone if they are in one?

The idea of traveling 5-6 hours is rare unless evacuees are going to stay with family members and plan on staying for awhile or if they are having their expenses paid for by their employer or something. This is especially the case with gas stations all over the state running out of gas so any long distance driving could be an issue. Once you are no longer in the flood zone, most people are prepared to suffer with the inconveniences of the loss of power, boil water notices alongside their neighbors as long as they are all close to home. Unfortunately the chance that it will drop to a CAT Three go provide all the incentive to stay.

Good luck.

They aren't quite in an Evacuation zone but literally right across the street is Zone E. They aren't more than a half mile from a Zone A area so I'm guessing the Sr community they are in must have done a tone of grading before development. I didn't even think of the gas issues but I saw the huge lines of traffic yesterday. I was thinking Sunday was the day to evacuate.

That's great news Ghost Econ. 10+ days is a long, long time to be without power.

[Lathum]

I look forward to the same people praising DeSantis for not taking calls from Harris and claiming she has no role in this using it to bash Harris for the response in the aftermath.

[GrantDawg]

Slight southward jog. Milton is back up to a Cat 5. They are still predicting it to hit at a cat 3, but it is starting to look better for a landfall slightly south of Tampa Bay. It's still way too early, but we can only hope.

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[Ksyrup]

That's kinda worse, isn't it? The worst of a hurricane is always in the NE quadrant.

[JPhillips]

If it comes in south of Tampa Bay the rotation will push water out of the bay. If it comes in north of the bay, it pushes the water in. I heard a difference of up to 8 feet in storm surge from 10 miles north to 1o miles south of the bay.

[GrantDawg]

It is the angle coming in. The system is going west to east. If it hits south, that means the NW part of the storm hits Tampa.

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[Ghost Econ]

An insurance adjuster was supposed to be at our house tomorrow to assess our damage... they let us know if was bring postponed because our adjuster had to return home to Tampa to board up his house...