The Official 2013 MLB Thread

[BishopMVP]

Boston might start Doubront over Buchholz (Lester/Lackey/Peavy being the other 3 starters). Not sure how much of that is the Cards documented struggles vs. lefties, how much is a feeling that Buchholz isn't really recovered from injury, and how much is just overreaction to 3 games where he struggled in the 5th/6th innings.

Might also drop down to only 10 pitchers for the series. Those 5 starters (with either Buchholz/Doubront in the pen), Dempster/Workman (who can both go long if necessary) and Breslow/Tazawa/Uehara. Would allow us to carry an extra PR/PH/above-average defender in JBJ or PH/3rd C in Lavarnway.

[molson]

Mayor Menino hopes Red Sox win the 'World Series cup' - The Buzz - Boston.com sports news

Honestly, Kwame Kilpatrick V. Mumbles Menino should have been enough reason for anyone to root for the Red Sox.

[MrBug708]

Clearly going 2-0 vs Kershaw shows the struggles they had

[MizzouRah]

Payback time BOSOX, let's GO CARDINALS!!!

[Arles]

With Craig playing DH, that also helps on their struggles vs lefties. Not to mention his .474 Avg during the season with runners in scoring position.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Arles

With Craig playing DH, that also helps on their struggles vs lefties. Not to mention his .474 Avg during the season with runners in scoring position.

That (and the Cardinals hitting .330 as a team with RISP) is primarily just SSS and luck. Every team hits marginally better with RISP - partially because the pitcher has to worry about keeping runners on, mostly because it means the pitcher generally isn't pitching as well as one with nobody on - but unless the Cards are stealing signs from 2nd base, there's no reason why a team would bat .060 points higher with RISP.

[tarcone]

Cardinals bat .308 against pitchers that throw over 95 mph. The Cards struggle with soft throwing lefties. Which will play into Bostons hand if they get to their closer.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Cardinals bat .308 against pitchers that throw over 95 mph. The Cards struggle with soft throwing lefties. Which will play into Bostons hand if they get to their closer.

Uehara's a righty. Only lefties are Lester (wouldn't call him soft throwing), Doubront who will probably be saved for potential long relief in games 3/4, Morales (not soft throwing, but not good either) and Breslow (probably fits).

As much as a series can come down to one player, I think Wacha's the key. If he pitches like he did in the last few games, Cards likely win, but if we lay off that low changeup and get to him (and I think we can since he's only really a 2-pitch pitcher) series swings in our favor.

[tarcone]

For some reason I thought Uehara was a lefty.
The talking heads in St louis were talking to a MLB Network guy today. And he said pretty much what you said about Wacha. Facing Wainwright and Wacha 4 times is the series. They have to beat one of those guys to win. Tough task.

They were also talking bullpens. They compared the throwing speeds of Rosenthal and Uehara and the temperature. Basically, no one can get comfortable against a guy throwing 100 mph in sub 40 degree temps. Where a batter can against a guy throwing 87 mph. It was interesting.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

That (and the Cardinals hitting .330 as a team with RISP) is primarily just SSS and luck. Every team hits marginally better with RISP - partially because the pitcher has to worry about keeping runners on, mostly because it means the pitcher generally isn't pitching as well as one with nobody on - but unless the Cards are stealing signs from 2nd base, there's no reason why a team would bat .060 points higher with RISP.

There certainly is a sample size issue with their crazy numbers this season. But, it's been fairly legit for Craig. In his 4 seasons, he's 502 plate appearances with runners in scoring position with these numbers:

.421 AVG, .490 OBP and .643 SLG (1.133 OPS)

That ends up being 186 hits and 271 RBI in those 502 appearances.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by tarcone

For some reason I thought Uehara was a lefty.
The talking heads in St louis were talking to a MLB Network guy today. And he said pretty much what you said about Wacha. Facing Wainwright and Wacha 4 times is the series. They have to beat one of those guys to win. Tough task.

They were also talking bullpens. They compared the throwing speeds of Rosenthal and Uehara and the temperature. Basically, no one can get comfortable against a guy throwing 100 mph in sub 40 degree temps. Where a batter can against a guy throwing 87 mph. It was interesting.

90% of his success comes from that cutter, which might come at the hitter like its being thrown by a lefty.

The velocity thing is interesting, but I think it might be a little overblown. Obviously more mph on a fastball is always better, but the idea that there's some huge drop-off at 94mph seems weird to me. Fangraphs dug in a little bit - Faster Fastballs and Boston’s Slugging Sluggers | FanGraphs Baseball - but I'm not sure there's really any proof beyond "the guys who can throw 97mph+ and locate it in the strike zone tend to be really good."

Originally Posted by Arles

There certainly is a sample size issue with their crazy numbers this season. But, it's been fairly legit for Craig. In his 4 seasons, he's 502 plate appearances with runners in scoring position with these numbers:

.421 AVG, .490 OBP and .643 SLG (1.133 OPS)

That ends up being 186 hits and 271 RBI in those 502 appearances.

Craig's been the fulcrum of some debate in the stats community (and to a lesser extent, Beltran with his playoff numbers). I guess my question is, if there's some sort of change in approach, why doesn't he just do that every time and be the best hitter since Babe Ruth/Barry Bonds? Or why does he hit worse with a guy on 1st?

Splits (from BR - not sure why they list fewer PA's than you)
RISP - 407pa .394/.451/.636
0 on - 738pa .283/.327/.453
Man on 1st - 275pa .251/.305/.404

Is he just sandbagging it unless guys get on and he can get an RBI?

[Arles]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Splits (from BR - not sure why they list fewer PA's than you)
RISP - 407pa .394/.451/.636
0 on - 738pa .283/.327/.453
Man on 1st - 275pa .251/.305/.404

Is he just sandbagging it unless guys get on and he can get an RBI?

I think some guys can get more dialed in higher leverage situation. Maybe Craig tries to go more with the pitch instead of trying to hit a HR and just get the run in. We are looking at nearly an entire season of ABs over 4 years where he's had success. At some point it can't just be "luck" every year.

[Jas_lov]

If the 2nd base ump couldn't see that Pete Kozma never caught the ball then he shouldn't be calling the World Series. He shouldn't have to be overruled by another umpire standing 100 feet away. The 2nd base umpire should be replaced effective tomorrow.

[Arles]

What a joke this game has been for St. Louis. Hopefully, this is the one "can't field, can't run, can't hit" game of the series and we get it out of the way. These guys should be embarrassed. Take the loss tonight and get it fixed for tomorrow.

[Desnudo]

Allowed to grant time while the pitch is in the air now apparently

[MizzouRah]

Ugly...

[MrBug708]

How had Ortiz managed to avoid Steroid all these years

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

How had Ortiz managed to avoid Steroid all these years

Stay classy LA.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

How had Ortiz managed to avoid Steroid all these years

He powers up with Twinkies and Big Macs.

The DH SUCKS!

[Galaril]

Beltran was taken to Boston Hospital for X-rays on the ribs. If they lose Beltran for a couple games how does that impact this Cards offense?

[SirFozzie]

He's apparently back at the ballpark, so probably nothing major

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

Allowed to grant time while the pitch is in the air now apparently

Happens to Jon Lester? He barely reacts. Happens to Carlos Martinez? Next pitch is up and in at David Ross. Couldn't even make it through one game without the Cardinals pulling a stunt like that.

[SirFozzie]

Beltran x-rays negative, listed as day to day.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Arles

I think some guys can get more dialed in higher leverage situation. Maybe Craig tries to go more with the pitch instead of trying to hit a HR and just get the run in. We are looking at nearly an entire season of ABs over 4 years where he's had success. At some point it can't just be "luck" every year.

The high number of PA's is the only reason it's actually become a debate and gotten looked into. The funny thing about you mentioning higher leverage situations is that quite literally his worst split on the BR page is in "Late and Close" situations - .238/.308/.369 in 224 PA's. Sometimes, guys do have an entire fluke season well outside their career norms. Or two if they hang around long enough.

Originally Posted by MrBug708

How had Ortiz managed to avoid Steroid all these years

Avoid getting caught or avoid the rumors? Because he certainly doesn't avoid having those brought up when he's discussed here or when I talk to fans of opposing teams.

PS - I love schizophrenic Tim McCarver. Cardinal walks on a full count "That's why you never throw a breaking ball on a 2-2 count." Next batter Matt Holliday strikes out chasing a 2-2 breaking ball "And Lester picking the perfect time to throw that curve."

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Stay classy LA.

Not sure what the LA comments mean?

I just bothered to look at a "David Arias" card. Pretty sure no one believes he wasn't using at one point.

But stay classy...guy from Colorado who might be a Red Sox fan? idk

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Beltran was taken to Boston Hospital for X-rays on the ribs. If they lose Beltran for a couple games how does that impact this Cards offense?

Hopefully as much as it did for Hanley

[jbergey22]

Papi is one the smartest hitters in baseball. And he has always been large even back with the Twins. People seems to want to think he was/is on roids but Ive never really been convinced he has.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Not sure what the LA comments mean?

I just bothered to look at a "David Arias" card. Pretty sure no one believes he wasn't using at one point.

But stay classy...guy from Colorado who might be a Red Sox fan? idk

He MAY have 04-05sh but the reason he is good now and has been good for the past 6-7 seasons is because he has grown into one of the most intelligent hitters in the game.

[Arles]

The Red Sox are a very good team and should probably take the series with homefield (still aggravating that is decided by an All-Star game - but it is what it is). Still, it's not a good sign when your defensive SS makes 2 errors in the first two innings. And, in the irony of all ironies, the only two people who could field the ball in those innings were the team's two worst fielders in Holiday (who made a couple nice plays) and Beltran (who bruised his ribs on that doggy door of a right field fence).

We will see how tomorrow night goes, but this was a joke early on. The optimist in me remembers how terrible the Cards looked in the first road game in LA (that time it was John Jay) and the team came back to win the second road game. Maybe that's what will happen tomorrow. Atleast it seems that Beltran's injury isn't super serious.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Beltran x-rays negative, listed as day to day.

All I can say as an amateur coed softball player who bruised his ribs diving for a softball a couple of week ago is I have no idea how somebody can swing a bat or play baseball with any sort of rib injury. (HanRam especially with broken ribs) I haven't been able to move quickly to my right or sleep on my right side for 2+ weeks.

[Thomkal]

Sadly this is looking a lot like 2004 all over again-Red Sox getting ahead early and staying there the whole game, injury to Beltran. I have to think Wacha is not going to be as dominating as he was the rest of the post season. Hope I'm wrong, but right now this is how it looks to me.

[Arles]

Game 2 is key. The Cards need a good effort - I wouldn't say they have to win but they need it to be a close game to stop the bleeding right now. Very disappointing start.

[PilotMan]

Yeah, it's really going to put a damper on the team if your best player struggles because his ribs hurt.

[Arles]

I could take a bite out of unsweetened chocolate and get less bitterness than we are getting from Dodger fans in this thread.

[MizzouRah]

We win tonight.. then home cooking!

[Coffee Warlord]

So with Ozzie stating he'd be down for a coaching position with the Cubs, we've assembled the dream team for the Cubs new coaching staff.

Manager: Lee Elia
Pitching Coach: Dusty Baker
Hitting Coach: Lou Piniella
3rd Base Coach: Wavin' Wendell Kim
1st Base Coach: Ozzie Guillen

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Papi is one the smartest hitters in baseball. And he has always been large even back with the Twins. People seems to want to think he was/is on roids but Ive never really been convinced he has.

His name was on the same list as A-Rod.

[tarcone]

The Cardinals have had a bad game every series this post season. One where they cant hit, field or run the bases. Its out of the way now. Back to the good team playing.

[SirFozzie]

Wow. Ortiz is.... He's the closest modern thing to argue that there's such a thing as being clutch. Nice to see him get hot at the absolute best possible time.

And Lackey's earning his salary.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Wow. Ortiz is.... He's the closest modern thing to argue that there's such a thing as being clutch. Nice to see him get hot at the absolute best possible time.

And Lackey's earning his salary.

He's why the DH needs to go away.

Cards up 4-2!

[SirFozzie]

he's why the DH is never going away.

Face it, if there's going to be changes, it's going to be adding the DH to the NL instead of taking it away from the AL

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

he's why the DH is never going away.

Face it, if there's going to be changes, it's going to be adding the DH to the NL instead of taking it away from the AL

I think you are wrong.. it's time to take the DH out of baseball.

[MizzouRah]

Suck it Redsox!

[tarcone]

Thats always my favorite game: Wacha, Martinez, Rosenthal. Three 22 year old pitchers mowing them down. Beautiful.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Suck it Redsox!

You stay classy there Mizzou.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

You stay classy there Mizzou.

C'mon man what was wrong with that?

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Thats always my favorite game: Wacha, Martinez, Rosenthal. Three 22 year old pitchers mowing them down. Beautiful.

Sick!

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

So with Ozzie stating he'd be down for a coaching position with the Cubs, we've assembled the dream team for the Cubs new coaching staff.

Manager: Lee Elia
Pitching Coach: Dusty Baker
Hitting Coach: Lou Piniella
3rd Base Coach: Wavin' Wendell Kim
1st Base Coach: Ozzie Guillen

It's actually Wendell "Send 'im in" Kim. Glad to see he's got that rep i more places than just here

[Thomkal]

I feel better about the Cards chances this morning

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

he's why the DH is never going away.

Face it, if there's going to be changes, it's going to be adding the DH to the NL instead of taking it away from the AL

Absolutely. It will remain status quo or they'll add the DH in the NL. There's no way it will be taken out of the AL.