2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

This is a great page that discusses how the momentum is going to shift throughout, what to expect and how each of the top 3 is going to win.

Which States Cruz, Trump and Rubio Need to Win

Interesting. Rubio's strength is later in the calendar. But can he hold out that long? The same establishment that will be backing him will also not like the uncertainty if he can't knock out Cruz and Trump early.

I'm still think that Rubio will win the nomination. But it may take a bit longer to get there.

Kaich has apparently held ~100 town halls in New Hampshire. New Hampshire voters love surprises. He fits their demographics nicely. He's currently at 2% to win N.H. at Predictit and at 12% to come in second there.

Those odds seem a bit low. If Rubio does not click in N.H., then Kaich might be the guy to come out of nowhere and get that support.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Yes & no. Him winning at the very least prevents the Democrats from ruining our country even more for those 4-8 years.

No, it just degrades the (R) brand and ends up with an eager-to-capitulate p.o.s. in the office, doing their bidding. F'n amnesty whore, he might as well be a damned Democrat for all the good he'd even try to accomplish. He's not worth a bucket of warm piss on a cold day.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

No, it just degrades the (R) brand and ends up with an eager-to-capitulate p.o.s. in the office, doing their bidding. F'n amnesty whore, he might as well be a damned Democrat for all the good he'd even try to accomplish. He's not worth a bucket of warm piss on a cold day.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

If Rubio does not click in N.H., then Kaich might be the guy to come out of nowhere and get that support.

Kasich is Huntsman, Huntsman is Kasich.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

No, it just degrades the (R) brand and ends up with an eager-to-capitulate p.o.s. in the office, doing their bidding. F'n amnesty whore, he might as well be a damned Democrat for all the good he'd even try to accomplish. He's not worth a bucket of warm piss on a cold day.

Unfortunately, I believe this to be true as well.

But if it comes to Hilary or Rubio, gotta go Rubio.

And I think Rubio wins the GOP nomination.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Unfortunately, I believe this to be true as well.

But if it comes to Hilary or Rubio, gotta go Rubio.

And I think Rubio wins the GOP nomination.

He falls under the heading of "things I simply could not do".

I've told that story, I had major issues with myself after holding my nose for McCain, haven't once regretted skipping a vote when it was Romney.

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

This is a great page that discusses how the momentum is going to shift throughout, what to expect and how each of the top 3 is going to win.

Which States Cruz, Trump and Rubio Need to Win

I'm amazed Rubio is polling a distant 3rd in his home state. It seemed to me Rubio was nearly a lock to beat Clinton mostly because the electoral advantage of winning Florida. But I guess if he is doing so poorly now, Florida is in play for Clinton?

[NobodyHere]

This debate might be entertaining

[mtolson]

Christie - 1
Rubio - Negative 20

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by mtolson

Christie - 1
Rubio - Negative 20

Yeah, awful exchange for Rubio. Wtf was he thinking there?

[mtolson]

Maybe someone can enlighten me because I am not a republican....why are they hell bent on bashing Obama ? I mean the dude is on his way out of office after two terms, why are they not focusing on what they plan to do to better the country. You don't like what he has done, I get that. But damn, tell me what you are gonna do and stop whining about Obama as if no one in congress plays a role in anything he has done. I would vote Republican in a heart beat if I thought they were the best option for the county. Based on everything I am hearing, there is not a single candidate from either party worth voting for.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Yeah, awful exchange for Rubio. Wtf was he thinking there?

Rubio probably shouldn't criticize anyone for not showing up to work.

[NobodyHere]

The crowd really hated Trump's attitude on eminent domain.

[mtolson]

Trump's attempt at appearing presidential went right out the window as soon as Bush started talking lol. Trump and Rubio are not helping their cases with this one. Everytime Rubio opens his mouth Christie punches him straight in the throat.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by mtolson

Trump's attempt at appearing presidential went right out the window as soon as Bush started talking lol. Trump and Rubio are not helping their cases with this one. Everytime Rubio opens his mouth Christie punches him straight in the throat.

I think it has been more effective for Christie to attack Rubio than it was for him to attack Hillary every speech like he did in past debates.

[PilotMan]

I finished my income taxes today and I wanted to take a look at what my actual tax burden was for this year versus some of the flat tax proposals that I could find. I make a good income, but also support 5 people with that income as the Mrs. doesn't work. My income is good enough for me to be considered the 4th quintile (between the top 20-40%.). Middle class, or trending toward upper middle.

One of the big features of these plans is pretty much getting rid of every deduction and loophole, so I'll assume that all the income is based on my adjusted gross with no other modifications.

Cruz - no tax on first 36000, then 10%.

My tax burden under this plan actually goes down by $216. (-2.8%)

Paul - no tax on first 50000, then 15%.

My tax burden increases by $1336. (+17.8%)

Carson - no tax on the first 36375, then 14.9%.

My tax burden increases by $3307. (+44%)

Santorum - A flat 20% tax rate with a $2500 per person tax credit. We file married/joint, so that's $5000 for us.

My tax burden increases by $9287. (+124%)

I can't find any other flat tax proposals and the other GOP tax proposals are either not significantly different from what we have now, or not detailed enough to calculate what my burden would be. If anyone finds any other proposals I'd be happy to do the math.

I have no idea how they sell everyone that these proposals will benefit the middle class. I'm all for paying more taxes if there's a good reason, but I'm not sure that this is the right option.

[JPhillips]

Most of them keep the child and mortgage deductions.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

He falls under the heading of "things I simply could not do".

I've told that story, I had major issues with myself after holding my nose for McCain, haven't once regretted skipping a vote when it was Romney.

I gave Bill Clinton the same courtesy when I abstained from voting in '96.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by mtolson

Maybe someone can enlighten me because I am not a republican....why are they hell bent on bashing Obama ? I mean the dude is on his way out of office after two terms, why are they not focusing on what they plan to do to better the country. You don't like what he has done, I get that. But damn, tell me what you are gonna do and stop whining about Obama as if no one in congress plays a role in anything he has done. I would vote Republican in a heart beat if I thought they were the best option for the county. Based on everything I am hearing, there is not a single candidate from either party worth voting for.

If GWB is any indication, we'll be talking about the failures of the Obama administration until 2022 or so...

[rowech]

So this is first time I've watched any of these debates. These dudes all want a free medical system for all veterans where they can go to any doctor or hospital they choose? Yet they all argue against a national health care system? Wtf nonsense is that? As if some dude working on a line doesn't make the country work as much as a veteran did?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by rowech

So this is first time I've watched any of these debates. These dudes all want a free medical system for all veterans where they can go to any doctor or hospital they choose? Yet they all argue against a national health care system? Wtf nonsense is that? As if some dude working on a line doesn't make the country work as much as a veteran did?

And cut taxes and increase military spending.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by rowech

So this is first time I've watched any of these debates. These dudes all want a free medical system for all veterans where they can go to any doctor or hospital they choose? Yet they all argue against a national health care system? Wtf nonsense is that? As if some dude working on a line doesn't make the country work as much as a veteran did?

Im as liberal as they come when it comes to healthcare. I believe in free healthcare for everyone. And I mean free. The biggest rip off in America today is big pharm and health insurance.
All Obamas plan did was make money for the insurance companies. What a bunch of BS. Fuck that. And all the liberals praise the plan. What a bunch of idiots.

[NobodyHere]

I thought Kasich and Christie had the best night.

Rubio and Trump had the worst. Bush to a lesser extent.

Carson and Cruz didn't really make an impression on me either way.


ETA: I did like Trump's parting shot at Cruz though.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by rowech

So this is first time I've watched any of these debates. These dudes all want a free medical system for all veterans where they can go to any doctor or hospital they choose? Yet they all argue against a national health care system? Wtf nonsense is that? As if some dude working on a line doesn't make the country work as much as a veteran did?

Because military vets are much more scarce. They are playing to the pro-military crowd, people LOVE the military guys and gals more than "some dude working on a line"...it's probably because we just fought two wars though...in any event, the cost of supporting military veterans is already astronomical and trying to provide that level of health care to EVERYBODY is financially unsustainable. As a vet myself, I'd prefer the politicians speak more closely to supporting COMBAT VETS versus just your run of the mill guys like myself who never got hurt (or bombed...or shot at...while chillin' in relative safety in neighboring countries to the war zones)...I never deserved jack shit from the taxpayer above and beyond what was already promised me...but a lot of those wounded guys DO deserve more support. That's where the focus should be and if these guys aren't articulating that, then shame on them.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Because military vets are much more scarce. They are playing to the pro-military crowd, people LOVE the military guys and gals more than "some dude working on a line"...it's probably because we just fought two wars though...in any event, the cost of supporting military veterans is already astronomical and trying to provide that level of health care to EVERYBODY is financially unsustainable. As a vet myself, I'd prefer the politicians speak more closely to supporting COMBAT VETS versus just your run of the mill guys like myself who never got hurt (or bombed...or shot at...while chillin' in relative safety in neighboring countries to the war zones)...I never deserved jack shit from the taxpayer above and beyond what was already promised me...but a lot of those wounded guys DO deserve more support. That's where the focus should be and if these guys aren't articulating that, then shame on them.

You said much more eloquently what I had told my brothers. Combat Veteran is not the same as Veteran and to me they are not distinguishing between the two. That's not to diminish the job that's done but everybody in the country has a job that makes us go.

[JPhillips]

Imagine politician X saying, "Combat veterans deserve..."

The obvious followup is, "What about non-combat veterans?"

Who is going to jump to their death by saying, "Screw them."

There's a lot more non-combat vets and family members than those of combat vets. Politically it would be crazy to make that distinction.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by rowech

So this is first time I've watched any of these debates. These dudes all want a free medical system for all veterans where they can go to any doctor or hospital they choose? Yet they all argue against a national health care system? Wtf nonsense is that? As if some dude working on a line doesn't make the country work as much as a veteran did?

Some dude working on a line isn't serving the country, the company the dude working on the line is working for can take care of that dude. It's pretty straight forward.

If that idea passes it's also pretty damn easy to solve the majority of the "healthcare issue"...

[Arles]

I'm trying to figure if there was a better way to bury a debate than putting it on the Saturday night before the Super Bowl. I was actually at home and watching TV - and it lost out on the great Golden State-OKC basketball game. I can't imagine the ratings were that great.

[Solecismic]

It gets a little harder to analyze these after a while, because we're familiar with the various styles.

I think everyone can agree that Rubio punk'd himself with the 25-second sound byte. It was a particularly strong one because Rubio has distinguished himself with these eloquent summaries, always turning positively to his vision. That's his style. All he needed to do was recognize that when Christie hit him on it, he needed a different answer at that moment. He didn't have one.

At that moment, Rubio became the establishment, and everyone else on that stage was the outsider.

What will this do to Rubio's campaign? New Hampshire turns on a dime, but not in ways we can always predict. I'll return to this thought later. New Hampshire hates canned responses, though. Will this cost him second place on Tuesday? It might.

What about Trump? We've had a month or so of Trump 2.0 - the Trump who no longer scares small children and seems to recognize what's working for him. But he's also easy to provoke. And he can't seem to go into much detail on anything, even when he's specifically taken to task for speaking in generalities.

Hard to blame him for this approach when he keeps gaining in the polls. So, the question here is whether those who support him in New Hampshire polls, assuming these Likely Voter measures are accurate, will turn out on Tuesday. I think they will. They did in Iowa, but what we found in Iowa was that there are a ton of not-so-likely voters who turned out as well, and they are making their decisions closer to the primary date. What will they do? Trump has been in New Hampshire. He was at this debate. New Hampshire is a place that will have a lot of respect for his entrepreneurship.

Surprisingly, Trump was the one who had the strongest anti-Obama message because it was in response to Rubio's standard 30-second sound byte on the topic. In the end, especially since he took on the audience itself and didn't lose with an accusation that the RNC stacked the audience with insiders, he might actually have had his best performance of the entire season.

Ted Cruz had his usual solid performance on the issues, but his message is far to the right, which doesn't play well in New Hampshire. Will New Hampshire voters notice that Cruz (and Rubio, for that matter) played down their strong Iowa appeals to evangelical voters? Will that seem like hypocrisy? Cruz is just trying to hold on to double digits in New Hampshire.

Dr. Ben Carson is running out of time, and even when he was peaking over 20% nationally and 30% in Iowa, he didn't break 15% in New Hampshire. I don't know how he can stay in the race much longer, which, incidentally, becomes a validation of Cruz if he does drop out in the next couple of weeks. If he does stay in, he will have to scale back staff and won't be able to advertise, and that will have the same effect.

Christie seems to be the guy lately who has the strongest performance on exchanges - the guy who seems to be able to talk semi-intelligently on any subject without sounding rehearsed. I think he'd be deadly with fewer candidates. However, he isn't getting anywhere in any poll. I keep expecting him to make a move, and he doesn't. He keeps putting his best foot forward in these debates and it doesn't move the needle. You just have to conclude that America doesn't want a prosecutor as President right now. Maybe he'd make a good Attorney General?

Jeb Bush has put everything into New Hampshire, and maybe the answer is that even a candidate who seems like a very good fit for the state won't gain traction if his name is Bush. Or maybe people can't forget how bad he was in August and September when he could have been the guy to stem the Trump tide? Point being that even though he's doing everything right, he had only a couple of opportunities to get the momentum moving and he lost them. He could win in a cycle where it's "last one standing," but this isn't that cycle. Who, of these candidates, is most likely to make another decent run ni 2020 if the Democrats win in November? Probably Bush.

That leaves John Kasich, who has also put everything into New Hampshire. Commentators keep saying he tailored his message for New Hampshire and independents, and that will work. Well, yes, New Hampshire has a plurality of independents. And, yes, unlike most states, you can walk in the door of a primary as an independent, register as a Republican, vote, and, on your way out the door, revoke your membership in the Republican Party. I've only voted in one primary in my life - I did so as a three-minute Democrat in the 2004 New Hampshire Primary.

However... New Hampshireites hate pandering. They really hate it. And they will see Kasich's message as somewhat panderful (I've always wanted to invent a word - maybe this is to politics what Solecismic is to company names). I don't think he hurt himself at all. His message is solid enough. But will New Hampshire see him as a leader? I think he's stuck in the low teens.

No one really won this debate, unless you're inclined to consider Trump, and then Trump 2.0 is fairly effective. Rubio and Carly Fiorina certainly lost.

I was going to make a prediction, but now I'm not sure. Rubio really had momentum, and could have soared with a strong performance tonight. And my gut says Kasich didn't soar (again, my gut is always wrong). I think I'm going to wait until Monday (but before Dixville Notch takes center stage).

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by rowech

You said much more eloquently what I had told my brothers. Combat Veteran is not the same as Veteran and to me they are not distinguishing between the two. That's not to diminish the job that's done but everybody in the country has a job that makes us go.

Yes, true...in my military circles...I was just "a guy on the line".

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Imagine politician X saying, "Combat veterans deserve..."

The obvious followup is, "What about non-combat veterans?"

Who is going to jump to their death by saying, "Screw them."

There's a lot more non-combat vets and family members than those of combat vets. Politically it would be crazy to make that distinction.

I agree, but since I'm not running for President, I'll gladly point out the difference.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I think everyone can agree that Rubio punk'd himself with the 25-second sound byte. It was a particularly strong one because Rubio has distinguished himself with these eloquent summaries, always turning positively to his vision. That's his style. All he needed to do was recognize that when Christie hit him on it, he needed a different answer at that moment. He didn't have one.

At that moment, Rubio became the establishment, and everyone else on that stage was the outsider.

What will this do to Rubio's campaign? New Hampshire turns on a dime, but not in ways we can always predict. I'll return to this thought later. New Hampshire hates canned responses, though. Will this cost him second place on Tuesday? It might.

I don't watch these things, so it has no effect on me, and I can imagine it will only have any sort of impact on people that actually watched it. This is the risks that face any younger candidate when going up against the more polished politicians.

[JPhillips]

It's amazing to me that the content of Rubio's remarks are so common now that they won't raise an eyebrow. His prepared bit was saying that the President was purposefully working to destroy America from the inside. It wasn't that long ago that that would have been universally condemned.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It's amazing to me that the content of Rubio's remarks are so common now that they won't raise an eyebrow. His prepared bit was saying that the President was purposefully working to destroy America from the inside. It wasn't that long ago that that would have been universally condemned.

Yeah, I've felt that way before...IRT GWB...but ultimately, it all just looks like faux-rage to complain about it anymore.

[QuikSand]

Based on what I'm hearing from GOP types I know (insiders but not local to NH at all) we might see Rubio as a historical burst bubble right there at that debate. In the space of an hour he goes from the guy to buy to the guy to sell. Not sure how many tickets get punch southward after NH, but Rubio honestly could be done already. Even if he beats each of the other establishment guys just on pure momentum from Iowa, I now think he's a longshot to win the nomination, after the curtain got pulled back like that. Fascinating.

Honestly good for the party, though, because if there's no there there, that would surely have come out in the general.

[Thomkal]

Missed the debate, what did Rubio say that was so damaging to his campaign?

[QuikSand]

Marco Rubio Repeats Similar Line Four Times in GOP Debate - ABC News

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Based on what I'm hearing from GOP types I know (insiders but not local to NH at all) we might see Rubio as a historical burst bubble right there at that debate. In the space of an hour he goes from the guy to buy to the guy to sell. Not sure how many tickets get punch southward after NH, but Rubio honestly could be done already. Even if he beats each of the other establishment guys just on pure momentum from Iowa, I now think he's a longshot to win the nomination, after the curtain got pulled back like that. Fascinating.

Honestly good for the party, though, because if there's no there there, that would surely have come out in the general.

He was the guy to dislike - the professional politician who had never done anything. That feeling has been nagging at me for about a month now, but during the debate, it was full-force. I know there were some who felt that way about Obama around the time he started to lead in the polls.

Is it too late for Kasich and Christie? Does Jeb! get another look (or at least a different punctuation mark)?

The prepared bit is essentially that America is exceptional and Europe isn't, and Obama doesn't see that and wants to emulate Europe. I can go along with it to a certain extent, but the nefarious spin Rubio puts on this speech is off-putting.

I'm also a little irritated with the moderating. The Republicans have spent forever talking about frustration with the "king-like" issuing of executive orders. OK, so naturally the candidates will use executive order to undo executive orders that they feel violate the Constitution. That's a given. But, pin these elusive politicians down. Would you govern the same way? Or would you pledge only to use executive order for procedural issues? This is an important distinction and no one asks that question in that way.

[Neuqua]

As someone who has no idea who he was going to vote for in November (just not Cruz), I can say that Rubio went from a frontrunner from the Republican side to almost out of consideration. That exchange was absolutely comical and even I mentioned "He just said that right? Like a minute ago? Wait, he's saying the same thing he just said after being called out already? ..... You can't be serious, he said it again!?"

They probably won't make it thus far but as of now the list of consideration from the Republican side is down to Bush, Kasich, Christie.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

He was the guy to dislike - the professional politician who had never done anything. That feeling has been nagging at me for about a month now, but during the debate, it was full-force. I know there were some who felt that way about Obama around the time he started to lead in the polls.

Is it too late for Kasich and Christie? Does Jeb! get another look (or at least a different punctuation mark)?

The prepared bit is essentially that America is exceptional and Europe isn't, and Obama doesn't see that and wants to emulate Europe. I can go along with it to a certain extent, but the nefarious spin Rubio puts on this speech is off-putting.

I'm also a little irritated with the moderating. The Republicans have spent forever talking about frustration with the "king-like" issuing of executive orders. OK, so naturally the candidates will use executive order to undo executive orders that they feel violate the Constitution. That's a given. But, pin these elusive politicians down. Would you govern the same way? Or would you pledge only to use executive order for procedural issues? This is an important distinction and no one asks that question in that way.

Again, this is Rubio or bust.

If Rubio is dismantled, then it's going to be Trump or maybe even Cruz. No chance anybody else gets around them at this point. Jeb was the only other one in the field that had a chance and Trump already dismantled him.

[JPhillips]

Rubio's main argument is electability. I'd guess there are a lot of GOPers that aren't nearly as confident that he can debate Hillary as they were 48 hours ago. If people start to think he can't win the general, what does he have left?

[JAG]

That sequence was flat out embarrassingly bad for Rubio.

EDIT: I know I'm not breaking new ground here, but I'm surprised someone who's made it to this point could get so destroyed by simply asking what they accomplished and repeating the same canned bit not once, not twice, not three times, but four times in about six minutes.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JAG

but I'm surprised someone who's made it to this point

Honestly, the bar is pretty low to get to "this point".

I mean, Carson was a frontrunner not that many weeks ago. And whatever argument someone might make for him, political acumen isn't on the list.

[JonInMiddleGA]

And for the most talked about thing from the whole debate ...

"Starting at guard, a 6'1 senior from ... "

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Marco Rubio Repeats Similar Line Four Times in GOP Debate - ABC News

Thanks for the info. I think Christie's barb hit a little closer than Marco liked.

[QuikSand]

Christie nailed it... basically a "there you go again" moment, the kind of thing that really sticks. Honestly, the fact that CC is in that exact dual-frame shot when he's poking the stick is the best moment of his campaign thus far, by far.

[stevew]

wtf is this?

[Solecismic]

There were 11.6 million viewers on a Saturday night, even with debate fatigue. This was bigger than Rubio might want to admit, precisely because Republicans are looking for a Trump/Cruz antidote.

[stevew]

Wow, christie totally gave rubio a facial.

[QuikSand]

Right... I think it's the perfect storm. Clearly the establishment wants a guy other than those two. Rubio surges in Iowa and grabs it. Gets momentum. In NH, bright light shins on him, and he totally wilts. Gives away the thin "electability" facade on grounds he may in fact be a dope. Suddenly he's the emperor with no clothes, even without ever getting to the front of the race. This is totally how New Hampshire can work, though. He might honestly be done.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Right... I think it's the perfect storm. Clearly the establishment wants a guy other than those two. Rubio surges in Iowa and grabs it. Gets momentum. In NH, bright light shins on him, and he totally wilts. Gives away the thin "electability" facade on grounds he may in fact be a dope. Suddenly he's the emperor with no clothes, even without ever getting to the front of the race. This is totally how New Hampshire can work, though. He might honestly be done.

Nonsense. Not only is Rubio going to New Hampshire, he's going to South Carolina and Oklahoma and Arizona and North Dakota and New Mexico, and he's going to California and Texas and New York.... And he's going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan, and then he's going to Washington, D.C., to take back the White House! YEEEAAAAHAHHHAAAA!!!!