Severe Weather

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

It is the angle coming in. The system is going west to east. If it hits south, that means the NW part of the storm hits Tampa.

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Not as it's coming in. It's the NE bulleye. Once it hits and begins to move past, I agree. But yu'd much rather it be north than south on approach.

[GrantDawg]

What I mean by hitting South is the eye is going to be completely south of Tampa. Not a bullseye. That would be the west side of the storm hitting Tampa.

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[GrantDawg]

The worst surge of the storm is going to be south of the storm. You want to be on on the north end of the storm, not the south end.

"The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves," the NHC said in a Monday afternoon advisory. "Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances." *

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[Silver Owl]

My niece, her husband and 4yr old daughter is going to be right in the middle of this thing. My sister has been begging them to get out but my nieces husbands mother has convinced them that it isn't going to be as bad as the experts say.
So they are staying ... in a trailer home. People are fucking idiots !!!

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Silver Owl

My niece, her husband and 4yr old daughter is going to be right in the middle of this thing. My sister has been begging them to get out but my nieces husbands mother has convinced them that it isn't going to be as bad as the experts say.
So they are staying ... in a trailer home. People are fucking idiots !!!

Trailer park or just a single trailer? I mean either way is dangerous but I know there are people riding out the storm in a trailer park about three miles down the road from me who have ridden out more than a few storms since I have been here though none as strong as this one. Again not saying that it is not dangerous it may be a case of you don't know what you don't know. But if it is a trailer park, it is just one more thing they are going through together.

Also when you say "in the middle of this thing" do you mean where the eye might be passing over or just in the Tampa Bay area because all of the reports I see talk about the storm hitting the Tampa Bay area. I am technically in the Tampa Bay area. My forecast looks nothing like what is expected in Lakewood Ranch where my sister in law lives which is much closer to Sarasota than Tampa but is still consider a part of the Tampa Bay media market.

I understand what it looks like from the outside but more often than not there is a bit of a method behind the madness. There is a great deal of madness behind the madness as well just to be clear.

[GrantDawg]

I still remember the devastation that Andrew did to those trailer parks in Homestead. Of course, that hit at Cat 5.

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[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Silver Owl

My niece, her husband and 4yr old daughter is going to be right in the middle of this thing. My sister has been begging them to get out but my nieces husbands mother has convinced them that it isn't going to be as bad as the experts say.
So they are staying ... in a trailer home. People are fucking idiots !!!

Ugh. Beyond irresponsible with a 4 year old. Hope they aren't in an evacuation zone. Prayers for them

[flere-imsaho]

A lot of people are going to die because we've made a fetish out of ignoring actual trained and knowledgeable people in this country.

[CrimsonFox]

An old friend of the family that my mother knows lives in an apartment in Orlando and swears that she'll be fine and is not leaving.

[CrimsonFox]

Something I've heard on facebook is that the roads are now clogged with people and it is too late to leave if you haven't. That the traffic has moved 6 miles in 11 hours. Anyone there verify this kind of thing?

[GrantDawg]

Milton is still a Cat 5, but it dies look like it is going through an eye wall change right now. That will tend to slow it down about 20mph, but it will also make the wind field even bigger. They are saying it is likely to hit at a 4, and the track is looking like right between Tampa and Sarasota. It is going to be really, really bad. That is still likely a bit better than a direct hit or a hit north of the bay, but at this strength and size, it is going to be a monster.

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[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Something I've heard on facebook is that the roads are now clogged with people and it is too late to leave if you haven't. That the traffic has moved 6 miles in 11 hours. Anyone there verify this kind of thing?

That was definitely the case yesterday but at this point the roads are pretty much empty based on the traffic cameras I am seeing.

EDIT: That does not mean it is not too late for some people to leave. Many of the bridges to places like St. Pete and some of the barrier islands are already closed.

[Silver Owl]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Trailer park or just a single trailer? I mean either way is dangerous but I know there are people riding out the storm in a trailer park about three miles down the road from me who have ridden out more than a few storms since I have been here though none as strong as this one. Again not saying that it is not dangerous it may be a case of you don't know what you don't know. But if it is a trailer park, it is just one more thing they are going through together.

Also when you say "in the middle of this thing" do you mean where the eye might be passing over or just in the Tampa Bay area because all of the reports I see talk about the storm hitting the Tampa Bay area. I am technically in the Tampa Bay area. My forecast looks nothing like what is expected in Lakewood Ranch where my sister in law lives which is much closer to Sarasota than Tampa but is still consider a part of the Tampa Bay media market.

I understand what it looks like from the outside but more often than not there is a bit of a method behind the madness. There is a great deal of madness behind the madness as well just to be clear.

They are in a single trailer in the St. Augustine area. The adults can make the decision to stay if they want to stay but when they are putting a 4yr old at risk when they have options doesn't make any sense to me.

[miami_fan]

Be prepared for the pictures coming out of some areas to beyond devastating. Much like Helene, we are already getting rain from a separate system ironically the system that is supposed to weaken Milton. Some areas are going to get 4 to 6 inches of rain BEFORE they start getting the impact from Milton's rain. Also we have piles and piles of debris from Helene that are sitting on roadside all over the places. Here is a quick image search to give you an idea of what will be flying over the next 24-36 hours.

helene debris pickup - Google Search

[Edward64]

Some pretty scary stuff.

Stay safe.

[Lathum]

Florida prisons refusing to evacuate. One is in Zona A, a mandatory evacuation zone that is supposed to see 12 feet of storm surge.

I am torn on this. logistically seems like it would be a nightmare and a public safety concern. On the flip side these are still people. I guess fewer structures are better equipped to handle a storm like this than a prison.

[Thomkal]

I have two brothers in Florida, one on each coast-they are both staying. Those of you in Milton's path are in my thoughts-stay safe everyone!

[Ksyrup]

Max winds are down to 130mph, so it's weakening as forecasted. Not much solace for what's coming, but better than the alternative.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Florida prisons refusing to evacuate. One is in Zona A, a mandatory evacuation zone that is supposed to see 12 feet of storm surge.

I am torn on this. logistically seems like it would be a nightmare and a public safety concern. On the flip side these are still people. I guess fewer structures are better equipped to handle a storm like this than a prison.

on the other hand....once the water gets in they will all drown.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Be prepared for the pictures coming out of some areas to beyond devastating. Much like Helene, we are already getting rain from a separate system ironically the system that is supposed to weaken Milton. Some areas are going to get 4 to 6 inches of rain BEFORE they start getting the impact from Milton's rain. Also we have piles and piles of debris from Helene that are sitting on roadside all over the places. Here is a quick image search to give you an idea of what will be flying over the next 24-36 hours.

helene debris pickup - Google Search

Yeah I've been seeing the mountains and hills of furniture all over the place. Milton is gonna play tennis with that debris. Gonna smash holes in places and then the surge will fill it.

[GrantDawg]

Yet another way social media breeds morons...

I do not think it’s an accident that a lot of the people refusing to evacuate are professional content creators. they know they’ll never have this many eyeballs on them ever again pic.twitter.com/8xSYQwUIx5

— rebecca jennings (@rebexxxxa) October 9, 2024

[RainMaker]

Even if you didn't think the storm would be that bad and life threatening, I still think it'd be miserable to stay. You're going to have no power for awhile and it's going to be muggy as all hell without A/C. Just feels like getting out of town for a few days and crashing in a nice hotel would be preferable to me.

[Lathum]

I was reading tons of people, I suspect ones with means, flock to Disney in these scenarios.

https://www.newsweek.com/families-fl...oaches-1966318

[Ghost Econ]

My daughter has a friend who is leaving for Disney tomorrow. They go like 5 times a year, no sure why they don't cancel.

[Ksyrup]

Are the resorts separate from the parks, because I saw yesterday that the parks were closing today at 2pm?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Even if you didn't think the storm would be that bad and life threatening, I still think it'd be miserable to stay. You're going to have no power for awhile and it's going to be muggy as all hell without A/C. Just feels like getting out of town for a few days and crashing in a nice hotel would be preferable to me.

My wife and I where talking about this last night. We would definitely get out if we were in that situation right now, but we have lived through times when the bank account was bare, we worked for people who would expect us to work if there was any chance we could, and wouldn't pay us for days off even if our place of work closed. Not even that far in the past, it would have been a real hardship to leave for any amount of time. I would think if we were in a mandatory evac area, we would have at least gone to a shelter. IDK if we wouldn't have tried to ride it out if not in a mandatory ecvac just for fear of financial set back.

[CrimsonFox]

I wonder what the percentage of people staying/not evacuating are trumpers. I mean they usually are stubborn and against all scientists telling them what to do, but there are also people that just don't want to move ....ever.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I wonder what the percentage of people staying/not evacuating are trumpers. I mean they usually are stubborn and against all scientists telling them what to do, but there are also people that just don't want to move ....ever.

Not all, but most.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Are the resorts separate from the parks, because I saw yesterday that the parks were closing today at 2pm?

Most of the resorts stay open. They close the campgrounds and wilderness resort that is surrounded by a lake.

Not sure if you read the article but if you can afford it makes tons of sense. Sturdy buildings, food, staff, and they have their own power grid.

[GrantDawg]

They have a big tornado north of Fort Pierce. Massive debris ball on the radar.

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[HerRealName]

The Weather Channel guy standing in a driving rainstorm with a sprinkler running behind him is quite an image.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I wonder what the percentage of people staying/not evacuating are trumpers. I mean they usually are stubborn and against all scientists telling them what to do, but there are also people that just don't want to move ....ever.

There are a lot of people who can't afford to leave. A lot of people who are forced to work jobs. We saw this in North Carolina too. We don't live in a country that is very flexible to those in need.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

There are a lot of people who can't afford to leave. A lot of people who are forced to work jobs. We saw this in North Carolina too. We don't live in a country that is very flexible to those in need.

Reporters have been asking people all day why they decided to stay. The most common response has been "Where are we suppose to go? Our family who live on the beach in St. Pete had to come here."

I spent much of the last few days filling up sand bags within the flood zones in New Port Richey. That was the most common answer among people who were staying as well. There were more than a few newly crowned amateur meteorologist who were positive this would be no more than a tropical storm. I'm sure the news cameras will find them in the aftermath. But most people did not go anywhere because they had nowhere to go. I hear some folks already. They can go to the shelters. Why don't they just go there? Come on now guys, we still have folks that can't sit next to strangers that are or are not wearing a mask. You want them to sleep next to strangers and allow their families to sleep next to strangers?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Come on now guys, we still have folks that can't sit next to strangers that are or are not wearing a mask. You want them to sleep next to strangers and allow their families to sleep next to strangers?

Between that and a horrible death. Yes. I expect them to sleep next to strangers.

[GrantDawg]

The bay has all the water sucked out again. They said it happened scary fast.

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[miami_fan]

The roof on Tropicana Field has been blown off.

Tropicana Field is where the National Guard and first responders were sheltering and were going to deploy from after the storm

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

The roof on Tropicana Field has been blown off.

I'm trying to get my head around how/why you build a structure in the late 20th Century that is, what, like 5 miles from the ocean, is to be used during hurricane season...and put a roof on it that can't withstand a Cat3 that wasn't a direct hit on the area.

[Edward64]

Should have gone to Home Depot ... wonder if it worked

Tampa resident Mohammed Nijem strapped his entire house down ahead of the Florida hurricane

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I'm trying to get my head around how/why you build a structure in the late 20th Century that is, what, like 5 miles from the ocean, is to be used during hurricane season...and put a roof on it that can't withstand a Cat3 that wasn't a direct hit on the area.

Because the area has not seen a storm this strong since the early part of the 20th century. It could never happen here.

Seriously though, that is much closer to the actual reason than you may think. I just hope in the aftermath, everyone remembers that that was the thought process.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I'm trying to get my head around how/why you build a structure in the late 20th Century that is, what, like 5 miles from the ocean, is to be used during hurricane season...and put a roof on it that can't withstand a Cat3 that wasn't a direct hit on the area.

Cheaper to pay the insurance for a potential replacement than to engineer and build it to withstand a Cat3 hurricane in the first place?

[Flasch186]

NE Fl seemed to escape it but in this zero sum game someone got the short end of the trade regarding the hurricane's path.

[cuervo72]

Time to start suing oil companies for hurricane aid.

(I know, it'll never happen. But one can dream.)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I'm trying to get my head around how/why you build a structure in the late 20th Century that is, what, like 5 miles from the ocean, is to be used during hurricane season...and put a roof on it that can't withstand a Cat3 that wasn't a direct hit on the area.

Well, technically it was built to withstand the midpoint of a Cat 3 (111-129 mph)
Only a few panels of the roof — made of “6 acres of translucent, Teflon-coated fiberglass” and supported by cables connected by struts, and built to withstand winds of up to 115 mph, per the team

They hadn't exceeded that in 103 years.

[Ben E Lou]

No way they had sustained winds of 115 that far away from the eyewall. If it was vulnerable to a gust of 115, then that ain't Cat3 ready. Some Cat1s will have gusts that high. I hadn't thought about it from that angle, but I suspect flere's answer is the correct one--it's likely a better business decision to just roll the dice for the next 25-50 years until the inevitable replacement is built than to spend the money up front.

[RainMaker]

It was a calculated risk on the roof that didn't pay off. I guess where I'm confused is why they chose that as a staging area when they knew winds would be above what the roof was built to withstand. Maybe there aren't a ton of options in Tampa but I'd think their hockey arena or something would be better.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

No way they had sustained winds of 115 that far away from the eyewall. If it was vulnerable to a gust of 115, then that ain't Cat3 ready. Some Cat1s will have gusts that high. I hadn't thought about it from that angle, but I suspect flere's answer is the correct one--it's likely a better business decision to just roll the dice for the next 25-50 years until the inevitable replacement is built than to spend the money up front.

The new replacement is already on the books, due to open in 2028.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It was a calculated risk on the roof that didn't pay off. I guess where I'm confused is why they chose that as a staging area when they knew winds would be above what the roof was built to withstand. Maybe there aren't a ton of options in Tampa but I'd think their hockey arena or something would be better.

Can't put 10,000 cots on the floor of the hockey arena, plus it's in use. Tropicana successfully served as a staging area during Helene.

Additionally, the staging area had already been moved out (to Jacksonville) on Tuesday, before the time the storm arrived, as state officials already knew that the storm would exceed the safety threshold of the roof.

Basically, seems that the Trop was a preferred option until they realized the storm wasn't going to miss it by enough to be useful.

[cartman]

Tampa Bay got really lucky. Since the storm made land fall south of the bay, the rotation pulled the water out of the bay. If it was a direct hit or a bit north, it would have pushed the surge into the already full bay.

[Thomkal]

Just saw from the mayor of Gainesville on Twitter that the President and Vice President's office have called after both hurricanes to check on the city and his status. The Governor from his own state? Not yet

[Thomkal]

In not so severe weather, the Northern Lights were visible tonight here in Myrtle Beach:


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