WW XCIV Group Therapy - Game Over!

[The Jackal]

That is a pretty good point, I would've made a smarter vote to deflect attention from myself by now if I was a wolf. Stupidity ftw.

[MartinD]

That's a pain - had pretty much made my mind up to reveal my role (and what I had found out) if I had made it through night 5.

Sorry I couldn't provide any information for the group - was trying to 'slow play' the seer to get more information.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by MartinD

That's a pain - had pretty much made my mind up to reveal my role (and what I had found out) if I had made it through night 5.

Sorry I couldn't provide any information for the group - was trying to 'slow play' the seer to get more information.

Should make for some interesting post-game conversation.

[Lathum]

I see your point hoops, but I could also have just stayed on Saldana.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I see your point hoops, but I could also have just stayed on Saldana.

Yep, and I have no idea if that was better/worse for the village without knowing Saldana's faction.

Anyway, it isn't meant to be a "bad villager voting for a wolf today" lecture at all. I just don't know how to accurately put meaning on the late movement, that's all.

Going to bed, catch up with everyone in the morning.

[The Jackal]

Ok, so here's all I'm cleared to say and all I'm going to say about my role, you can ask followup questions but I don't think Ill be able to answer them.

There's actually someone who could vouch for me, but we're in a personal war, and I have no idea who it is. That's about all I'm willing to say, as it already might tip my role to someone, but if they are a villager and not a wolf they'll know I'm telling the truth.

[hoopsguy]

OK, new idea that I'll explore this morning when I finish my work commitments - who were the people who voted for Telle yesterday that did not vote for her when she had been in danger on earlier days?

I've got pretty good vote/unvote logs from each of the days so I'll look at those.

If anyone wants to chime in on this before I get the data up, I would love feedback on if this idea makes sense as a way to find a wolf. Obviously it is somewhat self-serving, since I never voted Telle (that I can recall) so I won't appear on this list. But I think that it makes for an interesting data point, at the very least.

[hoopsguy]

I may come back here later, but for now
UNVOTE THE JACKAL

[saldana]

couple things here...i believe the jackal about having a role that has no value for the village, and he has moved up my list quite a bit in a good way

i am a little dissapointed about 2 things....one, that i cast the tiebreaking vote on telle and people are still talking about me as a wolf-candidate.

meanwhile, lathum is touting the fact that he "put telle in the lead late", which was immediately undone by daddy torgo, who then made a late pile on switch when the question was no longer in doubt...i know lathum mentioned it right after the deadline, but the fact that it is being ignored in the ongoing analysis (and i have a ? after casting what proved to be the lynching vote) [/semi angry rant]

vote daddytorgo

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Autumn

And nobody will be allowed to date during it.

I prefer work hour deadliens

[claphamsa]

Date went well tho

Someone pm me the wolves!

[DaddyTorgo]

hey all

sorry - i fell asleep at 9pm last night and slept straight through till 7am this morning. didn't even make it onto the secondary laptop.

*going back to check the results*

[DaddyTorgo]

nice! we got the brutal.

sucks that we lost clap though.

[DaddyTorgo]

fuck - so we lost the seer and we didn't even get any type of report from Martin?

damnit

[DaddyTorgo]

i put a vote on clap to tie it up and always planned on moving late to telle to "seal the deal" because I wanted to try to get more info out of the runoff between the two of them. see if any wolves lept to defend clap or defend telle. i obviously wasn't about to say that when i voted for clap earlier.

i'm a villager. i had a role that helped the village. losing me now is not a big deal except that it will be one vote closer to endgame. I assume I'm okay to say that much based on what others have said about their hidden-roles.

[dubb93]

I need to get a vote out there incase things get busy at work and I'm unable to make it back before deadline.

VOTE CR

I'm not sure how much his day 1 vote for EF really helps, especially the way he fought FOR EF on day two. It is a feeling I have, nothing role based about this vote, I also think his clap votes look bad, especially the early one from yesterday.

[Autumn]

I have reason to believe what Jackal says, and it jibes with my earlier assumptions about his role. He's clearly got the worst voting record, but that shouldn't count for everything.

I think my next suspect is Chief. His one wolf vote came on day one when it didn't matter so much. Since then he has voted villager, with Saldana being an unknown on Day 3. He's lowest on my trust list at this point.

UNVOTE THE JACKAL

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i put a vote on clap to tie it up and always planned on moving late to telle to "seal the deal" because I wanted to try to get more info out of the runoff between the two of them. see if any wolves lept to defend clap or defend telle. i obviously wasn't about to say that when i voted for clap earlier.

It is easy to re-write history after the fact. Bottom line you voted Clap to tie it up and then switched after it was obvious Telle was the lynch. My vote on Telle put her up three meaning no one could switch off Telle and onto Clap at the last second and force a tie, your vote on Telle accomplished little.

[hoopsguy]

I'll put this out there right now - I'm more confident of Chief not being a wolf than anyone in the game. I started to make this reference last night but stopped just short of doing so. I'll go quote the post where I was heading in that direction ...

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum - ???
Hoops - ??? (well, I know)
Telle - wolf
Jackal - ???
Lerriuqs - sympathizer
Chief Rum - ???

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So that leaves you looking at three names on the list.
Most villagers are probably weighing four names on that list.

I may come back to this point a little later on tomorrow.

The original quote is post #2723, which quoted an earlier post from Autumn laying out people who were in a bad spot on the Day 2 vote..

The "I may come back to this point a little later on tomorrow" was me stopping just short of saying "I'm only weighing two names on that list". Because I'm quite certain that Chief Rum is a villager. And I've been playing some games with trust lists for awhile now to disguise that fact.

[Autumn]

This is quite ugly but here is the voting list that I have, Hoops.


The Jackal 1 PurdueBrad 2 Purdue 3 PurdueBrad 4 Lerriuqs 5 Claphamsa

Abe 1 ntndeacon 2 Purdue 3 PurdueBrad 4 Lerriuqs 5 Telle

PackerFanatic 1 ntndeacon 2 Eaglefan 3 PurdueBrad 4 Telle 5 Telle

Hoopsguy 1 Eaglefan 2 Purdue 3 Saldana 4 Claphamsa 5 Claphamsa

Lathum 1 Eaglefan 2 Purdue 3 PurdueBrad 4 Criticized 5 Telle Criticized

Poli 1 Telle 2 Eaglefan 3 Telle 4 Telle 5 Telle

Dubb93 1 Eaglefan 2 Eaglefan 3 Saldana 4 Lerriuqs 5 Telle

Autumn 1 Telle 2 Eaglefan 3 Telle 4 Telle 5 Claphamsa

Chief Rum 1 Eaglefan 2 Purdue 3 Saldana 4 Claphamsa 5 Claphamsa

DaddyTorgo 1 ntndeacon 2 Eaglefan 3 PurdueBrad 4 Lerriuqs 5 Telle

Saldana 1 dubb 2 Hoopsguy 3 Telle 4 Lerriuqs 5 Telle

[Autumn]

I'm going to have to think about what you're saying, Hoops, because it changes around a lot on my list.

[Autumn]

Here is my summary of the voting, simply going by who has voted for Wolves/Unknowns/Villagers.

5/0/0 Jackal, always voted villager
4/0/1 Abe, voted villager until day 5
3/1/1 Hoops, 3 villager, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
3/1/1 Chief, 3 villager, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
2/0/2 Lathum, wolf twice, villager twice
3/0/2 DaddtyT, 3 villager, 2 wolf
2/1/2 Saldana, 2 wolf, 1 unknown
2/1/2 Pass, 2 wolves, 1 unknown
2/0/3 Martin, wolf three times
2/0/3 Packer, voted wolf three times
1/1/3 Dubb, 3 wolf, 1 unknown
0/0/5 Poli, all villager

I put them in order of worst voting record to best, though obviously it doesn't take into account any nuances of hte vote.

[Autumn]

If you're not just making shit up, Hoops, that leads me to a very different set of suspects. I'm not sure I want to follow that line of thinking as I'm afraid you might be leading me astray. You're essentially suggesting that Telle was the only wolf (if I believe Jackal's suggestion of a role also) voting on Clap yesterday?

[hoopsguy]

I think Poli = all wolf

Autumn, if you are a good guy and your analysis from D2 that I've quoted can be trusted then there are only two more possible wolves on that list - Jackal and Lathum.

I would add that Saldana should still be considered from that day as well, but I'm about to start doing a deep dive on voting from each of the days.

[Lathum]

I would be very leery of anything hoops says right now. He has voted a wolf only 1 time, and that was his first vote one day 1.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Here is my summary of the voting, simply going by who has voted for Wolves/Unknowns/Villagers.

5/0/0 Jackal, always voted villager
4/0/1 Abe, voted villager until day 5
3/1/1 Hoops, 3 villager, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
3/1/1 Chief, 3 villager, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
2/0/2 Lathum, wolf twice, villager twice
3/0/2 DaddtyT, 3 villager, 2 wolf
2/1/2 Saldana, 2 wolf, 1 unknown
2/1/2 Pass, 2 wolves, 1 unknown
2/0/3 Martin, wolf three times
2/0/3 Packer, voted wolf three times
1/1/3 Dubb, 3 wolf, 1 unknown
0/0/5 Poli, all wolf votes

I put them in order of worst voting record to best, though obviously it doesn't take into account any nuances of hte vote.

Sorry, fixed.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

If you're not just making shit up, Hoops, that leads me to a very different set of suspects. I'm not sure I want to follow that line of thinking as I'm afraid you might be leading me astray. You're essentially suggesting that Telle was the only wolf (if I believe Jackal's suggestion of a role also) voting on Clap yesterday?

Well, from where I sit there was me (I know I'm a villager), Chief (I'm quite sure he is a villager), Telle (we know she is a wolf), you (I've been thinking villager all day), and Jackal.

So now do you see why I posted on the value of the Telle lynch to the wolves? Because I'm pretty sure that there were more wolves on Telle than there were on Clap. I'm just not sure if the wolves started the day there or moved there later.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I would be very leery of anything hoops says right now. He has voted a wolf only 1 time, and that was his first vote one day 1.

Yep, everyone should strongly consider anything I say and run it through their own BS detector.

I'm playing it as straight as I can right now but people get to make up their own mind if I'm being honest or just in total spin mode right now. That said, what is my gain right now as a wolf?

Am I protecting fellow wolf Chief Rum? If so, pick one of us to vote for to test that theory. I know how that will end up for the village, but the rest of the villagers don't so I'm sure they are weighing risks/rewards right now as they consider their moves for today.

Finally, Chief will be on at some point today. It should be interesting to hear his take on this. How would you expect him to react to this if he is a villager? If he is a wolf?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Well, from where I sit there was me (I know I'm a villager), Chief (I'm quite sure he is a villager), Telle (we know she is a wolf), you (I've been thinking villager all day), and Jackal.

So now do you see why I posted on the value of the Telle lynch to the wolves? Because I'm pretty sure that there were more wolves on Telle than there were on Clap. I'm just not sure if the wolves started the day there or moved there later.

This is also why I unvoted Jackal for now - because I think that yesterday was a day that the wolves wanted to get the seer out of the game, clean up their voting records, and got a not-totally-unexpected bonus when the brutal kill was the bodyguard.

So if they wanted to work on their voting records, then why wouldn't Jackal (of all people, with his miserable voting record) have been on that train?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

This is also why I unvoted Jackal for now - because I think that yesterday was a day that the wolves wanted to get the seer out of the game, clean up their voting records, and got a not-totally-unexpected bonus when the brutal kill was the bodyguard.

So if they wanted to work on their voting records, then why wouldn't Jackal (of all people, with his miserable voting record) have been on that train?

So are you looking at Abe? He voted villager until yesterday and there was nothing about BK's role to suggest he would have any clue about Abe. Almost like Abe pulled his "I trust Barkeep" out of a hat.

[Autumn]

For the moment I am following this new lead. I'm apt to switch back if my analysis changes, but if I'm right I feel very good about whee we're going.

UNVOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE ABE SARGENT

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by dubb93

So are you looking at Abe? He voted villager until yesterday and there was nothing about BK's role to suggest he would have any clue about Abe. Almost like Abe pulled his "I trust Barkeep" out of a hat.

Yep, when I talked last night about "changes in trust lists" based on my crappy guess at seer Abe is a guy who moved down the list.

But I still don't know why the wolves kill BK on N2 if Abe is a wolf. And Abe is correct in pointing out that he does not tend to play a tricky wolf historically.

[dubb93]

Unvote CR

For the time being.

[Lathum]

I can see this being one of those games where at the end everyone is like "man, I can't believe we let Hoops lead us around like that"

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

But I still don't know why the wolves kill BK on N2 if Abe is a wolf. And Abe is correct in pointing out that he does not tend to play a tricky wolf historically.

A wolf can't buy trust by saying he trusts a villager unless that villager has been proven to be a villager.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

A wolf can't buy trust by saying he trusts a villager unless that villager has been proven to be a villager.

yeah, but if I am a wolf I wait a few days before killing BK. I would assume after Abe's comment that by day 4 or so people would start looking their way as possible lynch candidates based on it.

I think Occam's razor says they assumed it was a lovers type role.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I'm going to go day-by-day with what I've got recorded for vote/unvote records. The next post will contain what I think were the most significant votes on this day.

Day 1:
205 - Poli votes Lathum (1-0)
210 - Lathum votes Poli (1-1)
240 - Poli unvotes Lathum (1-0)
242 - Lathum unvotes Poli (0-0)
244 - Dubb votes Saldana (1-0)
251 - EF votes PB (1-1)
252 - Poli votes Abe (1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe
253 - Lerriuqs votes Pass (1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass
272 - PB votes Hoops (1-1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass/Hoops
273 - PB unvotes Hoops (1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass
284 - Pass votes Lerriuqs (1-1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass/Lerriuqs
304 - Saldana votes Dubb (1-1-1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb
323 - EF unvotes PB, votes Hoops (1-1-1-1-1-1) Saldana/Abe/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb/Hoops
326 - Lathum votes Abe (2-1-1-1-1-1) Abe over Saldana/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb/Hoops
328 - Hoops votes EF (2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe over Saldana/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb/Hoops/EF
329 - Jackal votes PB (2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe over Saldana/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb/Hoops/EF/PB
333 - PF votes Lerriuqs (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/Lerriuqs over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/Hoops/EF/PB
335 - Clap votes PF (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/Lerriuqs over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/Hoops/EF/PB/PF
341 - Pass unvotes Lerriuqs, votes Hoops (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/Hoops over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/EF/PB/Lerriuqs/PF
343 - PB votes EF (2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/Hoops/EF over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PB/Lerriuqs/PF
347 - Pass unvotes Hoops (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PB/Lerriuqs/PF/Hoops
357 - PF unvotes Lerriuqs (2-2-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PB/PF/Hoops
370 - Pass votes for NTN (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PB/Hoops/PF/NTN
372 - EF unvotes Hoops, votes PB (2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF/PB over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PF/NTN
374 - PF votes NTN (2-2-2-2-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF/PB/NTN over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PF
381 - EF unvotes PB, votes Lathum (2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF/NTN over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum
396 - Lathum unvotes Abe, votes EF (3-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum/Abe
416 - Dubb unvotes Saldana, votes EF (4-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum/Abe
420 - BK votes NTN (4-3-1-1-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum/Abe
425 - Abe votes NTN (4-4-1-1-1-1-1-1) EF/NTN over Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum/Abe
443 - Pass unvotes NTN, votes No Lynch (4-3-1-1-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum/Abe
452 - EF unvotes Lathum, votes PB (4-3-2-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over PB over Pass/Dubb/PF/Abe
455 - Autumn votes PB (4-3-3-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN/PB over Pass/Dubb/PF/Abe
457 - Telle votes Abe (4-3-3-2-1-1-1) EF over NTN/PB over Abe over Pass/Dubb/PF
530 - NTN votes PF (4-3-3-2-2-1-1) EF over NTN/PB over Abe/PF over Pass/Dubb
532 - Pass votes NTN (4-4-3-2-2-1-1) EF/NTN over PB over Abe/PF over Pass/Dubb
536 - PB unvotes EF, votes NTN (5-3-3-2-2-1-1) NTN over PB/EF over Abe/PF over Pass/Dubb
577 - Telle unvotes Abe, votes PB (5-4-3-2-1-1-1) NTN over PB over EF over PF over Pass/Dubb/Abe
581 - PB unvotes NTN, votes Telle (4-4-3-2-1-1-1-1) PB/NTN over EF over PF over Pass/Dubb/Abe/Telle
595 - MartinD votes PB (5-4-3-2-1-1-1-1) PB over NTN over EF over over PF over Pass/Dubb/Abe/Telle
603 - NTN unvotes PF, votes PB (6-4-3-1-1-1-1-1) PB over NTN over EF over Pass/Dubb/Abe/Telle/PF
604 - Autumn unvotes PB, votes Telle (5-4-3-2-1-1-1-1) PB over NTN over EF over Telle over Pass/Dubb/Abe/PF
605 - Chief votes EF (5-4-4-2-1-1-1-1) PB over NTN/EF over Telle over Pass/Dubb/Abe/PF
668 - Poli unvotes Abe, votes Telle (5-4-4-3-1-1-1) PB over NTN/EF over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
669 - PB unvotes Telle, votes NTN (5-5-4-2-1-1-1) PB/NTN over EF over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
679 - PB unvotes NTN, votes Telle (5-4-4-3-1-1-1) PB over EF/NTN over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
699 - Alan votes NTN (5-5-4-3-1-1-1) PB/NTN over EF over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
701 - NTN unvotes PB, votes Telle (5-4-4-4-1-1-1) NTN over EF/PB/Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
707 - NTN unvotes Telle, votes EF (5-5-4-3-1-1-1) NTN/EF over PB over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
711 - PB unvotes Telle, votes NTN (6-5-4-2-1-1-1) NTN over EF over PB over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
713 - EF unvotes PB, votes NTN (7-5-3-2-1-1) NTN over EF over PB over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF

[hoopsguy]

Day 1 Most Significant Votes:
#396 Lathum puts EF up to three votes first - no value in doing this to a wolf on D1

#416 Dubb vaults EF up to four votes (two vote lead) - no value in doing this to a wolf on D1

#425 Abe ties it 4-4 with NTN vote - very bad vote

#604 Autumn unvotes PB, votes Telle - pulls PB back to the pack, moving EF within 2 votes of lead and Telle within 3 of lead. This looks really good right now with current info

#605 Chief puts EF within one of the lead with his vote

#668 Poli unvotes Abe, votes Telle to pull her within 2 of lead


Telle was never really that close to the lead, but some of these moves above increased the pressure on EagleFan. I can't conceive of any wolf strategy on Day 1 to earn trust by getting a wolf (or two) in real danger.

Day 1 votes for Other folks still alive:
Saldana voted for Dubb in post #304, never moved it

I voted for EF in Post #328, never moved it

Jackal voted for PB in Post #329, never moved it

PF voted for Lerri, unvoted him to vote for NTN in post #374. No movement down the stretch

MommyTorgo never voted on this day

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by dubb93

A wolf can't buy trust by saying he trusts a villager unless that villager has been proven to be a villager.

But if he is trying to suggest a lovers role, which is what several of us concluded earlier in the game, he has pretty much negated that option and drawn attention to himself by offing the other lover who he said "kill me before you kill him".

It has not really worked out that way - he has been able to remain in the background, to a large extenf, for the past few days - but intuitively I think that killing off your "trusted villager" under those circumstances on N2 doesn't seem like optimal play.

Optimal play for the wolves if they thought they were getting a 2:1 with BK/Abe. But not so optimal if they knew they were not getting a double kill.

This one has confused me most of the game when I've tried to project Abe as a wolf. Maybe I'm thinking too hard here.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Day 1 Most Significant Votes:

#668 Poli unvotes Abe, votes Telle to pull her within 2 of lead

...

Day 1 votes for Other folks still alive:

MommyTorgo never voted on this day

Some additional thoughts on these two.

Poli did move his vote from a villager to a wolf, but it wasn't the "right" wolf in terms of getting us a Day 1 kill. That would have been EF. He comes out looking very good on voting record here. I suspect that I'll be dropping this suspicion as I look at the next few days.

MT not voting in a close race involving a wolf could be taken as a good sign - the wolves would have wanted all hands on the deck to save one of their own. Or it could have meant that he just missed the deadline, as he has suggested. Again, hope that reviewing future days helps build a stronger case for each player (villager/wolf).

[The Jackal]

UNVOTE HOOPS

Lessee where the day takes us.

[hoopsguy]

Day 2:
790 - Lathum votes PB 1-0
810 - DT votes PB 2-0
822 - Hoops votes PB 3-0
823 - Clap votes PB 4-0
846 - Dubb votes PB 5-0
875 - Clap unvotes PB 4-0
951 - Alan votes EF 4-1 PB over EF
969 - Autumn votes EF 4-2 PB over EF
971 - DT unvotes PB votes EF 3-3 PB/EF
985 - BK votes Hoops 3-3-1 PB/EF over Hoops
1001 - Dubb unvotes PB 3-2-1 EF over PB over Hoops
1014 - Dubb votes EF 4-2-1 EF over PB over Hoops
1016 - Pass votes Hoops 4-2-2 EF over PB/Hoops
1017 - PB votes Hoops 4-3-2 EF over Hoops over PB
1020 - Telle votes PB 4-3-3 EF over Hoops/PB
1045 - Abe votes PB 4-4-3 EF/PB over Hoops
1047 - Jackal votes EF 5-4-3 EF over PB over Hoops
1050 - Jackal unvotes EF, votes PB 5-4-3 PB over EF over Hoops
1080 - Saldana votes EF 5-5-3 PB/EF over Hoops
1112 - MartinD votes EF 6-5-3 EF over PB over Hoops
1120 - BK unvotes Hoops, votes PB 6-6-2 EF/PB over Hoops
1123 - PF votes EF 7-6-2 EF over PB over Hoops
1137 - Lerriuqs votes PB 7-7-2 EF/PB over Hoops
1157 - Pass unvotes Hoops, votes EF 8-7-1 EF over PB over Hoops
1166 - Chief votes PB 8-8-1 EF/PB over Hoops
1169 - PB unvotes Hoops, votes EF 9-8 EF over PB
1194 - Saldana unvotes EF, votes Hoops 8-8-1 EF/PB over Hoops
1199 - Poli votes PB, votes 9-8-1 PB over EF over Hoops
1256 - INVALID - no unvote (Pass votes Telle), votes 9-8-1 PB over EF over Hoops
1258 - PB unvotes EF, votes Telle 9-7-1-1 PB over EF over Hoops/Telle
1261 - Poli unvotes PB, votes Telle 8-7-2-1 PB over EF over Telle over Hoops
1265 - BK unvotes PB, votes Hoops 7-7-2-2 EF/PB over Telle/Hoops
1285 - Clap votes Telle 7-7-3-2 EF/PB over Telle over Hoops
1291 - BK unvotes Hoops, votes Telle 7-7-4-1 EF/PB over Telle over Hoops
1315 - PB unvotes Telle, votes EF 8-7-3-1 EF over PB over Telle over Hoops
1318 - Poli unvotes Telle, votes EF 9-7-2-1 EF over PB over Telle over Hoops

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I can see this being one of those games where at the end everyone is like "man, I can't believe we let Hoops lead us around like that"

I'm almost 100% convinced that hoops and you are on opposite sides - just can't put my finger on which of you is the wolf. I'd love to vote one/both of you out at this point just to clear that up.

Either that or you two are the two remaining wolves.

[hoopsguy]

Day 2 setup - there had to be the realization among wolves that there may have been a seer scan on N1 against EF. I had posted during the night phase asking the seer to scan EF, plus it was a pretty logical play based on D1 voting. So I think there was less motivation to defend EF on D2 than there was on D1 when it was clear that no one knew anything. Also, the wolves criticized their own player, EF, costing themselves a vote that could very well have swung the results that day.


Day 2 - all votes were significant votes in a two horse race between villager/wolf:

#790 Lathum votes PB, never moves it despite saying in the thread that he thinks EF = good option. Suggestions that he was motivated to vote/stay PB due to role? (Lathum, please clarify so I'm not seen as putting words in your mouth if you think this is an unfair characterization)

#969 Autumn votes EF, cutting margin to 4-2

#971 DT unvotes PB, votes EF tying him with PB 3-3

#1014 Dubb votes EF, putting him two votes in front

#1045 Abe votes PB, tying it up again 4-4

#1047/1050 Jackal first votes EF, then changes to PB. Vote is 5-4

#1080 Saldana puts a vote down on EF, tying it at 5

#1123 PF votes EF, moving it to 7-6 EF. This feels like a pretty big vote to me.

#1166 Chief votes PB, tying it up at 8.

#1194 Saldana with a killer unvote here, moving from EF to me and tying it up again between EF/PB

#1199 Poli votes PB, putting him up 9-8. Not a good vote here.

#1261 Poli unvotes PB, changes vote to Telle. Vote is now 8-7 PB over EF. Certainly puts EF at risk.

#1318 Poli switches to EF at the very end of deadline, moving vote to 9-7

Telle's vote was on PB, so she did not have an option at the end to save EF or to create a tie. No idea on the other wolves.

[DaddyTorgo]

MommyTorgo just missed the vote on D1.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I'm almost 100% convinced that hoops and you are on opposite sides - just can't put my finger on which of you is the wolf. I'd love to vote one/both of you out at this point just to clear that up.

Either that or you two are the two remaining wolves.

If you cannot come up with a scenario where both of us are villager then you should pick one of us to vote.

If it does end up with me in a run-off of some sort and I got to pick my opponent then I think there would be far worse choices than Lathum.

OK, time to get back to the vote analysis. Hopefully others are taking a fresh look at these as they are posted (raw votes at least, do what you will with my commentary).

[The Jackal]

All this vote info is helpful, thanks.

[hoopsguy]

Continued Day 2 vote thoughts:
Poli again is a tough one to read for me. He ends up with a very good vote, but he put PB in jeopardy very near the deadline prior to his extra vote right smack on the deadline.

If he is a villager then everything is exactly as it appears and no need for further evaluation.

If he is a wolf then he didn't like how he would look on Day 3 in the vote analysis and got creative. I could see him doing this, which is why I'm continuing to post on this possibility.

I'm pretty sure that I'm not going to be voting for Poli today, despite the fact that I'm typing more about him than anyone else over the first two days. It just feels too high risk/high reward for today when there are other candidates out there.

I'm not going to post cumulative trusts stuff after each day, although I expect that my feelings will bleed into the comments a bit. That is why I've posted the raw data (with post #'s) so people can check my work out themselves.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by dubb93

So are you looking at Abe? He voted villager until yesterday and there was nothing about BK's role to suggest he would have any clue about Abe. Almost like Abe pulled his "I trust Barkeep" out of a hat.

Please, look at the timing of my vote yesterday. I think I moved it to a tie, or was real close. No way I do that if I am a wolf.