WW XCIV Group Therapy - Game Over!

[hoopsguy]

Days 3 and 4 will take a little longer. I was not around at the vote deadlines so my logs were incomplete based on comparing them to the final vote numbers.

To be continued ...

[Lathum]

Yeah DT, put your mouth where our balls are.

[hoopsguy]

Wow, Day 3 was potentially really, really interesting. But hard to fully evaluate without knowing about Saldana.

1532 - Clap votes Telle 1-0
1535 - Autumn votes Telle 2-0
1548 - Pass votes PB 2-1 Telle over PB
1554 - Lathum votes PB 2-2 Telle/PB
1566 - BK votes Telle 3-2 Telle over PB
1578 - PB votes Pass 3-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1616 - Saldana votes Telle 4-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1633 - Poli votes Telle 5-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1637 - Jackal votes PF 5-2-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF
1652 - MartinD votes Lerriuqs 5-2-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs
1661 - PF votes PB 5-3-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs
1684 - Dubb votes Saldana 5-3-1-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1702 - Abe votes PB 5-4-1-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1721 - PB unvotes Pass 5-4-1-1-1 Telle over PB over PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1722 - Pass unvotes PB, votes Saldana 5-3-2-1-1 Telle over PB over Saldana over PF/Lerriuqs
1723 - Hoops votes Jackal 5-3-2-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Saldana over PF/Lerri/Jackal
1735 - Lerriuqs votes Saldana 5-3-3-1-1-1 Telle over PB/Saldana over PF/Lerri/Jackal
1740 - BK unvotes Telle 4-3-3-1-1-1 Telle over PB/Saldana over PF/Lerri/Jackal
1753 - Hoops unvotes Jackal, votes Saldana 4-4-3-1-1 Telle/Saldana over PB over PF/Lerri
1766 - PB votes Jackal 4-4-3-1-1-1 Telle/Saldana over PB over PF/Lerri/Jackal
1773 - MartinD unvotes Lerri 4-4-3-1-1 Telle/Saldana over PB over PF/Jackal
1777 - MartinD votes Telle 5-4-3-1-1 Telle over Saldana over PB over PF/Jackal
1782 - MT votes PB 5-4-4-1-1 Telle over Saldana/PB over PF/Jackal
1789 - Pass unvotes Saldana, vote PurdueBrad 5-5-3-1-1 Telle/PB over Saldana over PF/Jackal
1791 - Chief votes Saldana 5-5-4-1-1 Telle/PB over Saldana over PF/Jackal
1797 - Telle votes PurdueBrad 6-5-4-1-1 PB over Telle over Saldana over PF/Jackal
1798 - Chief unvotes Saldana, votes Telle 6-6-3-1-1 PB/Telle over Saldana over PF/Jackal
1817 - Chief unvotes Telle, votes Saldana 6-5-4-1-1 PB over Telle over Saldana over PF/Jackal
1823 - PB unvotes Jackal, votes Saldana 6-5-5-1 PB over Telle/Saldana over PF
1824 - Jackal unvotes PF, votess PB 7-5-5 PB over Telle/Saldana

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I can see this being one of those games where at the end everyone is like "man, I can't believe we let Hoops lead us around like that"

funny you should say that...i was thinking this morning about how annoyed i am going to be that both of you are wolves, and that you both played us all for the entire game

[hoopsguy]

Day 3 vote commentary:


Day 3 setup - there were a lot of people around near the deadline with the brutal wolf on the line. I was not, but based on posts in the thread the following people were: Chief, Autumn (no change), Jackal, MT (no change)

Day 3
#1535 Autumn with early vote on Telle (2-0), never moves it. Was around at the deadline to do so if he wanted.

#1554 Lathum votes PB, stays there (same as D2), tying him with Telle at 2-2.

#1616 Saldana votes Telle to make it 4-2 Telle and stays there for duration. This is not a self defense vote at this point as he has no heat on him yet.

#1633 Poli votes Telle and stays there. 5-2 Telle now. I like this Poli vote more than any on first two days, even though it is the same person he has voted each time.

#1637 Jackal throws vote on PF, his first vote of day. Vote stays until the very end.

#1661 PF votes PB, closing gap to two votes. Vote stays there for duration.

#1684 Dubb votes Saldana, his first vote of day. Vote stays for duration.

#1702 Abe votes PB, closing gap to one vote. Vote stays there for duration.

#1723 I vote Jackal, his first vote of day.

#1753 I change vote to Saldana, which now ties him for the lead with Telle

#1782 MT votes PB, making score 5-4-4 with Telle ahead of PB and Saldana. Very bad vote here given that he avoided a known wolf and went with a known villager. Not sure how bad on relative scale without knowing Saldana's faction

#1791 Chief votes Saldana, putting him one back of PB/Telle.

#1798 Chief unvotes Saldana, votes Telle to create a 6-6 tie with PB

#1817 Chief unvotes Telle, votes Saldana one minute before deadline (fear of tie)

#1823 PB unvotes Jackal, votes Saldana on deadline (too late?)

#1824 Jackal unvotes PF, votes PB (could have created tie with vote for either Saldana or Telle). He had also said earlier he was not going to change his PF vote to break the PB/Telle tie but did so right at the end. His post indicates that he had seen Chief's move, but not as sure if he saw PB's move.

[hoopsguy]

If we are to believe that The Jackal is a village, then we had a wolf on the line down the stretch without any wolves moving to save her.

I'm vouching for Chief, so that was a villager who ended up making a bad play.

There were people on Saldana who could have acted to save someone, but none that I know were around at deadline other than Chief Rum.

MT had his vote on PB, so he could only save PB and not Telle.

Autumn had his vote on Telle, so he could have "saved" her with a vote change.

[The Jackal]

Hoops, to clarify, I did not say I would not move my PF vote to break the tie, I said I wouldn't be moving it when I thought there wasn't a tie.

I moved it because of the tie possibility, I didn't want a tie, I just shouldn't have been voting for PB. I had it in my head that Lathum was on to something with him and by the time I realized he was probably good it was too late.

[The Jackal]

If PF is a wolf I'm gonna be pissed after this game that I suspected him all along and he got away with playing UTR.

[hoopsguy]

#1782 MT votes PB, making score 5-4-4 with Telle ahead of PB and Saldana. Very bad vote here given that he avoided a known wolf and went with a known villager. Not sure how bad on relative scale without knowing Saldana's faction

Note - if PB is trying to "save" Telle, then why is he not putting the vote on Saldana to tie it? I find this vote to be the most interesting one of the day right now. Of course, if he is a villager it doesn't mean dick.

Time to move onto Day 4.

[saldana]

question to lathum, if you are so confident that we are being led around by hoops, why arent you voting for him? or even trying to suggest we vote for him?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Hoops, to clarify, I did not say I would not move my PF vote to break the tie, I said I wouldn't be moving it when I thought there wasn't a tie.

I moved it because of the tie possibility, I didn't want a tie, I just shouldn't have been voting for PB. I had it in my head that Lathum was on to something with him and by the time I realized he was probably good it was too late.

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'm not going to move my vote, I don't feel strongly about either of those choices.

The second quote is when it was a 6-6 tie between Telle and PB with two minutes to deadline. Post #1807.

Again, if I'm missing some nuance then let me know. There were quite a few posts that were fast and furious there, but the tie was set up at 6-6 in post #1798, three minutes earlier. So it sure read like you weren't going to break that tie because you did not feel strongly about the candidates. But you then did move the vote at the last second in post #1824.

unvote PF

vote PB

Just in case of shenanigans.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Okay, not leaving it in a tie. If others jump on to vote, I will switch back to saldana, my intended target. But it's 5-5, 5 mins to deadline and no one's saying anything.

UNVOTE SALDANA

VOTE TELLE

He's being a whiny biatch, but I buy the logic tolet PB go another day on the assumption the seer will have scanned him (and that seer better have by now).

Hoops, I based that post on this one from CR saying he put Telle into the lead. And when I posted that, the updated vote count showing a tie came right after it, and I did not want a tie.

[The Jackal]

I made a split-second decision because I was still trying to catch up, having just arrived in the thread. I didn't want to move my vote to give one person a stranglehold or make it a tie - but I definitely didnt want it to end in a tie, and it looked like no one was going to do anything (of course then CR did)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Note - if PB is trying to "save" Telle, then why is he not putting the vote on Saldana to tie it? I find this vote to be the most interesting one of the day right now. Of course, if he is a villager it doesn't mean dick.

Time to move onto Day 4.

do you mean DT?

[The Jackal]

I asked for a vote count, said I wasn't gonna move (because I thought it wasn't a tie), the vote count was posted, then I moved. Make sense?

[The Jackal]

I mean, that was my thought process. I ended up moving my vote onto the wrong damn person, anyways.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by saldana

question to lathum, if you are so confident that we are being led around by hoops, why arent you voting for him? or even trying to suggest we vote for him?

I can't

[The Jackal]

That post from saldana kind of makes me feel better about him. I'm not sure a wolf would ask that question, knowing that they criticized Lathum.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I can't

you cant vote for hoops? or you cant suggest to anyone else who to vote for.

let me guess...another function of you still as of yet unmanifested special ability

[The Jackal]

sal, they criticized him again last night, he can't vote today

[The Jackal]

of course he could be criticizing himself, but either way he cant vote

[saldana]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

That post from saldana kind of makes me feel better about him. I'm not sure a wolf would ask that question, knowing that they criticized Lathum.

Originally Posted by saldana

you cant vote for hoops? or you cant suggest to anyone else who to vote for.

let me guess...another function of you still as of yet unmanifested special ability

never mind...i had forgotten you wer criticized again...reading the night action before coffee is not a good plan.

[saldana]

although the criticizing doesnt stop you from making the suggestion

nor does it answer for the still as of yet unmanifested special ability that is going to benefit us all.

[Lathum]

I actually kind of like being criticized, it's liberating in a way.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I actually kind of like being criticized, it's liberating in a way.

you suck, you have a bad hairline, you have shitty taste in beer, and all your favorite sports teams blow.

yeah...that was liberating.

[saldana]

forgot the smiley

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think I would vote Hoops if I could, but I can get behind a Jackal vote also

Originally Posted by saldana

although the criticizing doesnt stop you from making the suggestion

nor does it answer for the still as of yet unmanifested special ability that is going to benefit us all.

not good enough for you I guess.

as for my ability I can't choose when to use it, but you will al know when it happens.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by saldana

you suck, you have a bad hairline, you have shitty taste in beer, and all your favorite sports teams blow.

yeah...that was liberating.

I know I feel better.

[The Jackal]

I think he means provide an argument about why you would vote for hoops.

[The Jackal]

which i'm interested in hearing because i have to decide if i want to vote for him

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I think he means provide an argument about why you would vote for hoops.

I don't think he meant that at all, had he meant that he would have said argument and not suggestion.

And it isn't like him to miss details like the ones he is missing.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I would be very leery of anything hoops says right now. He has voted a wolf only 1 time, and that was his first vote one day 1.

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I think he means provide an argument about why you would vote for hoops.

...

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

do you mean DT?

Yes, thanks.

[Autumn]

Lathum, I can imagine what your role would be, and that it wouldn't show up unless certain circumstances occur. But I don't see any sign of it being activated on that day. can you point me to any indicator of it being activated?

[The Jackal]

Alright, thanks for re-posting.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I asked for a vote count, said I wasn't gonna move (because I thought it wasn't a tie), the vote count was posted, then I moved. Make sense?

Yep, I know that the posts can come fast and furious near the deadline. That version you posted makes sense.

[hoopsguy]

Day 4 voting log:

1981 - Poli votes Telle 1-0
2021 - Autumn votes Lerriuqs 1-1 Telle/Lerri
2036 - MT votes Hoops 1-1-1 Telle/Lerri/Hoops
2051 - MT unvotes Hoops 1-1 Telle/Lerri
2057 - Hoops votes Lerri 2-1 Lerri over Telle
2087 - Clap votes Pass 2-1-1 Lerri over Telle/Pass
2160 - Saldana votes Lerri 3-1-1 Lerri over Telle/Pass
2184 - Dubb votes Hoops 3-1-1-1 Lerri over Telle/Pass/Hoops
2189 - Abe votes Lerri 4-1-1-1 Lerri over Telle/Pass/Hoops
2190 - Pass votes Hoops 4-2-1-1 Lerri over Hoops over Telle/Pass
2228 - Lerri votes Hoops 4-3-1-1 Lerri over Hoops over Telle/Pass
2229 - Jackal votes Lerri 5-3-1-1 Lerri over Hoops over Telle/Pass
2238 - MartinD votes Hoops 6-3-1-1- Lerri over Hoops over Telle/Pass
2248 - Lerri unvotes Hoops, votes Lerri 7-2-1-1 Lerri over Hoops over Telle/Pass
2275 - Autumn unvotes Lerri, votes Telle 6-2-2-1 Lerri over Hoops/Telle over Pass
2276 - Chief votes Clap 6-2-2-1-1 Lerri over Hoops/Telle over Pass/Clap
2280 - MT votes Telle 6-3-2-1-1 Lerri over Telle over Hoops over Pass/Clap
2286 - PF votes Telle 6-4-2-1-1 Lerri over Telle over Hoops over Pass/Clap
2291 - Hoops unvotes Lerri, votes Clap 5-4-2-2-1 Lerri over Telle over Hoops/Clap over Pass
2294 - Dubb unvotes Hoops, votes Telle 5-5-2-1-1 Lerri/Telle over Clap over Pass/Hoops
2298 - Telle votes Lerri 6-5-2-1-1 Lerri over Telle over Clap over Pass/Hoops
2303 - Pass unvotes Hoops, votes Lerri 7-5-2-1 Lerri over Telle over Clap over Pass
2320 - Lerri unvotes Lerri, votes Telle 6-6-2-1 Lerri/Telle over Clap over Pass
2324 - Dubb unvotes Telle, votes Lerri 7-5-2-1 Lerri over Telle over Clap over Pass
2325 - MT unvotes Telle, votes Lerri 8-4-2-1 Lerri over Telle over Clap over Pass

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Lathum, I can imagine what your role would be, and that it wouldn't show up unless certain circumstances occur. But I don't see any sign of it being activated on that day. can you point me to any indicator of it being activated?

I have a PM in to Danny to see if I can address this

[Autumn]

2238, it lists Martin as voting Hoops yet Lerri goes up by one?

[Autumn]

Okay, I checked my log, I think that's meant to say he voted Lerriuqs

[Danny]

I'll address this here, for the most part I'd prefer discussion to be on the voting analysis, etc... and less on exploring roles, I really don't want any potential reveals to go any further.

[saldana]

ok, not that i havent had the feeling myself, but just to see where this goes
unvote DT
vote hoops

[Autumn]

I'm going to stick with Abe for now then. His votes are pretty bad and I don't have any indication that he has anything but a wolf role.

[hoopsguy]

D4 setup - the early voting was really a departure from D3, with both Telle and Saldana drawing a ton less heat than they did the previous day. I'm absolutely responsible for part of this, as I'll note in the posts below. But this was a real missed opportunity to learn about Telle/Saldana.

Also, unlike D5 I do not see a scenario where they want to burn Telle if they can avoid it. They have to realize it is a possibility as the seer is still out there and unknown, but I think they want to ride the early wave on another candidate that they think is a villager.

D4 deadline participants - Lathum (could not vote), MT, Autumn, Dubb, me (sort of, flaky connection), Abe (post at 7:01)

D4 analysis:
#1981 - Poli is locked in on Telle at this point

#2021 - I'm not sure why Autumn changed horses from Telle yesterday to Lerri this morning. When I thought he was the seer I worked with idea that he had scanned her this AM

#2057 - I follow Autumn on his vote. I've obviously been pretty keen on his takes, since I think he is the seer at this point

#2160 - Saldana votes Lerri. He had a good Telle vote the previous day but now is falling in line on Lerri. What changed for him on Telle? This vote never moves.

#2189 - Abe keeps the Lerri train going. Vote never moves and he was around near the deadline.

#2229 - Jackal votes Lerri over me, Telle still way back. While I appreciate not picking up a vote here, from a wolf perspective both players are villagers so I can't give much credit here.

#2248 - here is where Lerri pulls the unvote, making it 7-2 margin over me and Telle is still at one vote (Poli's opener)

#2275 - Autumn starts run to Telle, suggesting that vote feels too easy. Yep, first time in awhile a wolf hasn't been in danger.

#2276 - Chief votes Clap. Oops.

#2280 - MT votes Telle. Good vote here as it opens up the possibility of bringing a wolf into the mix.

#2286 - PF votes Telle. Even better vote, PF is staying strong near the top of my trust list.

#2291 - I unvote Lerri, but move to Clap. Best move would have been a vote on Telle, but the move to Clap at least creates some pressure by shrinking Lerri's lead over Telle to 5-4

#2294 - Dubb unvotes me, votes Telle. Very good vote, I'm pretty much prepared to cede the game if Dubb has been making these kinds of plays as a wolf.

#2320 - Lerri make a move off himself to Telle one minute before the deadline, tying him with Telle.

#2324 - Dubb swings his vote from Telle to Lerri, 7-5 Lerri.

#2325 - MT swings his vote from Telle to Lerri, 8-4 Lerri.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Note - if PB is trying to "save" Telle, then why is he not putting the vote on Saldana to tie it? I find this vote to be the most interesting one of the day right now. Of course, if he is a villager it doesn't mean dick.

Time to move onto Day 4.

Because I wasn't trying to save Telle. Because I am a villager and she was a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by MartinD

VOTE LERRIUQS

I may well be voting for a villager, but his lack of activity doesn't feel right to me.

This is Post #2238, so error was in my log. But the vote count is correct there.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by saldana

you suck, you have a bad hairline, you have shitty taste in beer, and all your favorite sports teams blow.

yeah...that was liberating.

omg

[hoopsguy]

Day 5 votes (did these yesterday, so no additional research time required):

2452 Poli votes Telle 1-0
2467 Clap votes Telle 2-0
2472 Lathum votes Hoops 2-1 Telle over Hoops
2476 Hoops votes Clap 2-1-1 Telle over Hoops/Clap
2481 Lathum unvotes Hoops, votes Saldana 2-1-1 Telle over Clap/Saldana
2494 Saldana votes Lathum 2-1-1-1 Telle over Clap/Saldana/Lathum
2501 Chief votes Clap 2-2-1-1 Telle/Clap over Saldana/Lathum
2509 Dubb votes Saldana 2-2-2-1 Telle/Clap/Saldana over Lathum
2513 Autumn votes Clap 3-2-2-1 Clap over Telle/Saldana over Lathum
2521 Abe votes Hoops 3-2-2-1-1 Clap over Telle/Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2558 MartinD votes Telle 3-3-2-1-1 Clap/Telle over Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2587 Telle votes Clap 4-3-2-1-1 Clap over Telle over Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2590 PF votes Telle 4-4-2-1-1 Clap/Telle over Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2593 Jackal votes Saldana 4-4-3-1-1 Clap/Telle over Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2595 Abe unvotes Hoops, votes telle 5-4-3-1 Telle over Clap over Saldana over Lathum
2598 MT votes Clap 5-5-3-1 Telle/Clap over Saldana over Lathum
2604 Saldana unvotes Lathum, votes Telle 6-5-3 Telle over Clap over Saldana
2614 Lathum unvotes Saldana, votes Telle 7-5-2 Telle over Clap over Saldana
2622 Dubb unvotes Saldana, votes Telle 8-5-1 Telle over Clap over Saldana
2627 Jackal unvotes Saldana, votes Clap 8-6 Telle over Clap
2635 MT unvotes Clap, votes Telle 9-5 Telle over Clap

[dubb93]

If we assume that the wolves knew Martin was the seer I think it is possible that they gave up the vote yesterday when Martin voted Telle out of fear of him revealing and creating a massive COT if they pushed too hard against her.

[hoopsguy]

Dubb, I've posted some long thoughts on why I think they did exactly that.