06-26-2006, 06:22 PM | #2851 |
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So why the run on Schmidty? At least for me it was because I had no feel on him. No feel one way, no feel the other. Now there's some info out there. Others have done a great job of showing some inconsistencies there. Entirely possible that he's doing a fake reveal. But so what? Even if there's a 20% chance that he's telling the truth, and I think it's much higher then that, aren't we better off going for somebody else who is on no one's trust list? Someone like king. Or Chubby.
As for Schmidty's role: I don't think it's nearly as good as he thinks and think that the Necros are far more concerned about finding, say the bodyguard, then the High Priest. That said I don't see anything pointed out that suggests he isn't the role. I put it at 55/45 that he is the High Priest. That said Schmidty: You brag about how you are a terrible player. I know how much you enjoy playing these things, but really can you be surprised that sometimes the fact that you aren't such a good player is going to come back to bite you? To me that's the beauty of Werewolf is that no matter how you play sometimes it's going to come back to bite you. So those are my thoughts on Schmidty. |
06-26-2006, 06:40 PM | #2852 | |
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Quote:
Thanks for the lecture daddy. I will definitely take it to heart. |
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06-26-2006, 06:41 PM | #2853 |
College Starter
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Okay, what I've got on the game right now.
Schmidty isn't a bad lynch because right now we don't have any way of really clearing him and that's the stage of the game we're at right now. The same is true of me, but that's the way the cookie crumbles. Remaining living players: Anxiety - No way of clearing him and thus has to be a suspect. Barkeep - I trust that blade scanned him like it seems. Chubby - No way of clearing him, either, and has acted suspicious at times. Dubb - Same as barkeep. King - No way of clearing him either. Lathum - Probably going to have to be killed later but is no longer our/my primary threat even if I think it'd be kinda cool to kill him just to see what happens. Path - I don't see a way that he's bad and that we win the game at this point. Qwikshot - No evidence supporting. Saldana - His reveal would be an idiot play if he weren't actually dying, so it really doesn't matter either way as long as we don't listen to him too much, but I suspect he's on our side because of the non-contradicted role and how it matches with barkeep's story. Schmidty - Same here, really, although the role reveal seems pretty reasonable and if it's a lie someone ought to be able to contradict it. SnDvls - Highest on my trust list atm between blade's probably scan of dubb and my thinking that dubb would give us a good guy to stay alive. Tanglewood - No evidence here, either. Tyrith - I am what I am, at this point. Vince - I trust him a lot right now. I don't see a scenario other than a block last night within the rules. That leaves us the following group of primary suspects: Anxiety Chubby King Qwik Schmidty Tangle Me I'm going to discount myself for the obvious reasons. My gut instinct right now is to definately trust the fouts group more than the lathum group because most of the necros probably already know who the head is and would be trying to two-for-one us in any number of situations. The lathum group was me, path, dubb, king, anxiety, and saldana. I think we have probably three, slight chance of four necros left in this game, and I'd be pretty surprised if that list doesn't sum them up pretty good. Alan mentioned something in one of his posts along the lines that there's no way all the new players are bad. Possible tell? Incredibly small but those are the kinds of moves that are usually best for bad guys -- subtle way to sway thinking, unlikely to be caught, possibly true anyway. The schmidty dogpile stinks to me, as do most dogpiles usually, and he wasn't in the lathum group. While the ironic parts of me wants to vote for Anxiety I think I can actually get people behind the king vote. VOTE KINGFC22 |
06-26-2006, 06:41 PM | #2854 |
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No problem
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06-26-2006, 06:42 PM | #2855 |
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DOLA -- That was supposed to quote schmidty's response to me.
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06-26-2006, 06:42 PM | #2856 |
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Let's look at king. Barkeep mentioned him just now. I have no feel on king at all. Anyone else have ideas on king? I'm not voting for king, I just want to hear from king or about king.
-Anxiety
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06-26-2006, 06:43 PM | #2857 |
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Heh, look at Tyrith and I going in the exact same direction at the same time, both posting simultaneously
-Anxiety
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06-26-2006, 06:44 PM | #2858 |
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Well I'd have to do some digging, which I am unable to do for now, but his posts have struck me as generally useful, though nothing in particular of his stands out one way or another. But a good WW player, which king is, certainly works to cultivate that sort of image so I would certainly love to hear what others think, and possibly see what others can find from his posts if I cannot wrangle some free time to do it myself.
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06-26-2006, 06:45 PM | #2859 |
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DOLA -- Damn what is with me and the quoting? That last post was about king.
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06-26-2006, 06:46 PM | #2860 |
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I don't know 100%, but I'm at least 80% sure Schmidty is good with the ruling class reveal. I know for a fact there is only one ruling class member left.
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06-26-2006, 06:47 PM | #2861 | |
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Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
I don't have a feel for him, no idea where to place him (he's on my "somewhat trust" list but not up on my "pretty sure he's good" list). There hasn't been anything that's stood out for or against him that I have seen. Who has he voted for? |
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06-26-2006, 06:48 PM | #2862 |
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I started to go through Vince's posts but about halfway through I got busy at work, and frankly what I did see wasn't setting off any alarms. I might get a chance to look at King later, but I won't be able to do that before lynch today.
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06-26-2006, 06:51 PM | #2863 | |
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Quote:
And the fact that no one else has spoken up against schmidty makes me trust him even more. |
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06-26-2006, 06:52 PM | #2864 |
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Agreed.
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06-26-2006, 06:52 PM | #2865 |
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Path's reveal intrigues me. We haven't had a necro ruling class yet, have we? If there is 1 of those out there presumably the last one left would be a necro.
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06-26-2006, 06:53 PM | #2866 |
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Anxiety, Tyrith: What do you mean no one's spoken out for him? What do you call what you're doing?
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06-26-2006, 06:53 PM | #2867 |
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No, Tyrith said spoken out AGAINST him since teh rr
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06-26-2006, 06:57 PM | #2868 | |
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Quote:
Personally I think that once the fanatic died the ruling class breaks down. But that wasn't spelled out or anything, it's just the assumption I made. What I know is that the ruling class is broken and that there is just one member out there.
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06-26-2006, 06:59 PM | #2869 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2004
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UNVOTE Schmidty
Although to be honest, I'm having a hard time justifing this with the way he's reacted to SNDVLS, the one guy I'm 100% sure is clean.
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06-26-2006, 06:59 PM | #2870 | |
College Starter
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Quote:
Yeah, this. Pretty much all the active players have seen the role reveal and none of them came running forward screaming. It would have been funny if they did, especially with path's news now. |
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06-26-2006, 07:01 PM | #2871 |
General Manager
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Here is what I show for votes as of Post #2870:
Schmidty - SnDvls (2788), Lathum (2789), Saldana (2795), King (2797), Chubby (2800) King - Tyrith (2853) Not voted: Barkeep, Schmidty, Path, Anxiety, Dubb, Qwikshot, Vince, Tanglewood |
06-26-2006, 07:02 PM | #2872 | |
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06-26-2006, 07:04 PM | #2873 |
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Also both sndvls and dubb have continued to question Schmidty since his reveal. With about half of the remaining players having voted for Schmidty prior to the reveal asking someone NEW to jump on the anti-Schmidty bandwagon isn't as likely, but is still possible.
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06-26-2006, 07:09 PM | #2874 | |
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Quote:
IIRC, the rules stated that Ruling Class members who died would be replaced up to a certain point. If Swaggs died night 1 and was ruling class that could have passed to Schmidty (it should have passed to someone the way I read the rules). So then there were three again. Coffee uses his fanatic power to take out ruling class Pass then offs himself afterwards, taking out the remaining ruling class members. I get a message saying there's just one left. That would jive with the above scenario. I don't see the leap to the new ruling class member being a necro.
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06-26-2006, 07:10 PM | #2875 |
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Dola, it's certainly possible he is bad. I just don't see the connection.
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06-26-2006, 07:20 PM | #2876 |
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But why assume Schmidty got it from swaggs? Why couldn't he have been an original member and CW or Pass or someone else got passed to it from swaggs? By my rough math, assuming a very conservative 5 starting bad guys, if the ruling class is randomly deteremined there is 33% chance that no one would have been bad on the ruling class. This assumes that there has only been 1 replacement member, for Swaggs.
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06-26-2006, 07:21 PM | #2877 |
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So 1/3 isn't so bad. So I'm not saying that should indict Schmidty. Just wanted to throw that out there as a possiblity. If path, who has the greatest insight on the rulign class, believes Schmidty's version there I guess I should too. But the story, with the coin, doesn't completely add up, in fairness.
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06-26-2006, 07:23 PM | #2878 | |
Coordinator
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Quote:
Barkeep, this is where I got that Schmidty claimed to get the coin from Swaggs.
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06-26-2006, 07:25 PM | #2879 |
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Well, there is not much I can say that would make me any more valuable than Schmidty. I was hoping that my rather generic Egyptian role would turn into a ruling class replacement, but it hasn't.
On a side note, I will be going to the doctor tomorrow and won't be around for the deadline.
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06-26-2006, 07:28 PM | #2880 | |
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Quote:
OK, rereading this I don't think you're questioning that Schmidty claims to get it from Swaggs, but stating that we don't know for sure if he's lying or not. So, um, never mind. I'm out for awhile, will be back sometime before lynch and will vote then.
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06-26-2006, 07:34 PM | #2881 |
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Let's take a quick look at what the necros might have left. Right now we have an 11-3 man advantage and 10-3-1 if Lathum has his own agenda as the prophecy.
- If they have 4 left, then they could attempt a double kill each night. - If they have 3 left, then they could attempt 1 kill. - If they have 2 left, then they could attempt 1 kill. - Since the head necro is still out there he can use his disease. I think Blade was killed and saldana is the first victim. That would mean he has one chance left. Of course if he hits a "healthy" Egyptian then that voids his last chance. - The head necro also can raise a mummy still.
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06-26-2006, 07:37 PM | #2882 |
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dola
And if they have 4 left it is 10-4 or 9-4-1 depending on Lathum.
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06-26-2006, 07:42 PM | #2883 |
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How do you know there are 3 Necros still out there?
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06-26-2006, 07:42 PM | #2884 |
College Benchwarmer
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dola
Nice save........ |
06-26-2006, 07:43 PM | #2885 |
College Benchwarmer
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double dola
Ignore all the above, just read the original post again properly. Should learn to do that before commentating more often..... |
06-26-2006, 07:44 PM | #2886 | |
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Quote:
Only having two left is certainly possible, but my gut tells me three right now, and I have some other ideas bouncing around that I don't really want to out at the moment. |
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06-26-2006, 07:45 PM | #2887 | |
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Quote:
This was my thought even before the reveal, and now with that reveal, especially since it had been semi-corraborated with path, I don't think Schmidty is where we should be going today. |
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06-26-2006, 07:45 PM | #2888 |
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If there are only two left and we're planning on three we can just look at it as a fortunate surprise; for today it really doesn't change how we vote.
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06-26-2006, 07:46 PM | #2889 | |
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Sorry. I think I just pulled a SnDvls.:o
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06-26-2006, 07:46 PM | #2890 | |
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About to leave for work so I need to get a vote in. I suppose since no one else has spoken up about Schmidty's role we must believe him. Although I'll be voting elsewhere I'm secretly hoping Schmidty does infact bite his dust for telling Sun he hopes his side loses[which would be the side of the egyptians.]
With that said I won't vote for king. I have no info about him, but I think he's on the up an up. Instead, I'll go back to something I should have done a long time ago. VOTE CHUBBY And with that I'm out.
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06-26-2006, 08:00 PM | #2891 |
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I think this is the latest we have gone in a day phase with this many votes still remaining.
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06-26-2006, 08:09 PM | #2892 |
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Well I'm waiting for Chubby to return before I cast my vote. King anything you can post in your defense?
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06-26-2006, 08:26 PM | #2893 | |
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Quote:
I'm back, had to go to the store for drinks. Here is my reasoning on staying on Schmidty: He went after SnDvls as dubb mentioned after everything he knows. Now I don;t fully trust dubb either, but I've deemed him better left until later as I don't want to lynch another important egyptian. as you mentioned, there's nothing procluding the final ruling class member from being a necro. I don't see why that (him claiming ruling class) automatically makes him good. He may end up being good, I don't know for sure but why go after SnDvls after what Dubb has said? Dubb himself wants Schmidty dead yet votes for me? Why is that? I don't trust the whole dubb/SnDvls thing I'm still willing to put it off since no one else has taken it up. I am magically attuned. I've learned jack squat from my ability. There's no way I can clear myself with that, I don't have some smoking gun role to claim to try and save myself because frankly there isn't one. Not everyone is going to have juicy roles... sigh... |
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06-26-2006, 08:32 PM | #2894 |
General Manager
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Updated vote count as of Post #2893:
Schmidty - SnDvls (2788), Lathum (2789), Saldana (2795), King (2797), Chubby (2800) King - Tyrith (2853) Chubby - Dubb (2890) Not voted: Barkeep, Schmidty, Path, Anxiety, Qwikshot, Vince, Tanglewood |
06-26-2006, 08:35 PM | #2895 | |
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Oh come on, I got mad because I was being rudely dismissed by him. It was if he didn't want to listen to my side of things, and that pissed me off a lot. Everyone gets pissed at certain times in WW, and reacts ways they wish they hadn't. |
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06-26-2006, 08:36 PM | #2896 |
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Well that wasn't the role I was hoping to hear from Chubby. *Sigh*. Time to dig into king's posts.
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06-26-2006, 08:37 PM | #2897 |
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In hopes of not dying, I vote:
Vote Chubby I've said all I can say to try to save myself, and if the majority still aren't listening, even to the Pharaoh, then that's that. |
06-26-2006, 08:44 PM | #2898 | |
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06-26-2006, 08:45 PM | #2899 |
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What a lame ending. I'm going to die, and no one seems to give a shit, save 4 people or so. Half of you haven't even voted.
Damned garbage. |
06-26-2006, 08:45 PM | #2900 | |
Head Coach
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Quote:
I think I've hinted at my role a couple times now. Don't think we need an outbreak of role reaveals just yet.
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