WW CXXXIX - The Red Death II - GAME OVER, SERVANTS WIN - Page 58

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

So Commo just voted to avoid the tie and likely lynch two wolves. His reasoning is we can vote EF tomorrow. Nothing fishy there. Nope.

Fishy would have been doing that move minutes to deadline, not five hours. Someone else can still move to him, but I'm not going to be pressured to voting for someone. As for the tie, Unless it was EF that had the item there is probably no tie that happens tonight anyways. Maybe we end up lynching a villager EF who was not able to get anything out because he can't talk and Narc sticks around for another day.

mauchow · 10-10-2011, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

You agreed we lynch EF before me, but said you feel very strongly about me and are up in the air about EF. That seems rather backwards to me.

I guess if you think EF could be good it makes sense, since I've been pushing him. But still, I can't imagine how I've been more wolf-like than the guy who "revealed" to get out of a lynch and got our seer lynched.

Just letting people know my feelings is all.

mauchow · 10-10-2011, 05:29 PM

I won't be around at deadline to help w switches.

dubb93 · 10-10-2011, 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Fishy would have been doing that move minutes to deadline, not five hours. Someone else can still move to him, but I'm not going to be pressured to voting for someone. As for the tie, Unless it was EF that had the item there is probably no tie that happens tonight anyways. Maybe we end up lynching a villager EF who was not able to get anything out because he can't talk and Narc sticks around for another day.

Not that it really matters. EF and Narc either die today and tomorrow or both today. It doesn't matter which one of them dies first if only one croaks today. We are still going to lynch he other one tomorrow. All your vote did was potentially waste a day. It has no bearing on anything other than that. They are both going to die. There is zero chance that we are all of a sudden going to decide not to lynch EF after Narc turns up wolf.

dubb93 · 10-10-2011, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

Not that it really matters. EF and Narc either die today and tomorrow or both today. It doesn't matter which one of them dies first if only one croaks today. We are still going to lynch he other one tomorrow. All your vote did was potentially waste a day. It has no bearing on anything other than that. They are both going to die. There is zero chance that we are all of a sudden going to decide not to lynch EF after Narc turns up wolf.

Or if Narc turns up villager or that we don't lynch Narc if EF turns up wolf or villager. See where I'm going with this?

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 05:38 PM

I never said we wouldn't lynch EF, or that it will change the vote today. All I said was I'm not voting for EF today when I'm not 100% sold on him, but am on Narc.

dubb93 · 10-10-2011, 05:41 PM

Unvote EF
Vote Commo

Can we three way tie this?

dubb93 · 10-10-2011, 05:43 PM

7 narcizo - hoops, grammaticus, mauboy, autumn, narcizo, mckerney, Commo
3 EagleFan - jackal, J23, thomkal
1 Commo - Dubb

Well if 3 from Narc feel like voting Commo and one wants to unvote we can have a bonafide blood bath today.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

Unvote EF
Vote Commo

Can we three way tie this?

If you kill off two villagers in your three way tie I'd hope you are the next killed.

dubb93 · 10-10-2011, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

If you kill off two villagers in your three way tie I'd hope you are the next killed.

I wouldn't worry too much about that possibility.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 05:43 PM

Dola, or just kill off me because of the +1 item.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

I wouldn't worry too much about that possibility.

I would, if you get two villagers, then there are two more night kills as it looks like the minor undead didn't do a kill last night that is 4 in one day.

dubb93 · 10-10-2011, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I would, if you get two villagers, then there are two more night kills as it looks like the minor undead didn't do a kill last night that is 4 in one day.

Minor undead?

dubb93 · 10-10-2011, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Dola, or just kill off me because of the +1 item.

Well that would still be a dead wolf.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

Minor undead?

Zombies, skeletons, etc. Possibly what killed CF two nights ago.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

Well that would still be a dead wolf.

That is where you'd be wrong, I have had an item this entire game which I think may help prevent wolves from corrupting me. I tried to pass it day one, but bhlloy died.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 05:50 PM

Dola, what makes you think I'm a wolf anyways?

dubb93 · 10-10-2011, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Dola, what makes you think I'm a wolf anyways?

You are going out of your way to waste a day for the village.

If you would have voted EF Narc would still be dead b/c of the tie yet you refuse to do so even though you admit that will just mean we have to kill EF tomorrow.

These are not villager moves.

dubb93 · 10-10-2011, 05:52 PM

Unvote Commo
Vote EF

I still think this is the right move.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

You are going out of your way to waste a day for the village.

If you would have voted EF Narc would still be dead b/c of the tie yet you refuse to do so even though you admit that will just mean we have to kill EF tomorrow.

These are not villager moves.

How is it going out of my way, you easily changed your vote twice as anyone on Narc can to do and go to EF if they choose. I stated I have no problem with a tie, but I'm not going to vote for EF over Narc.

As for me voting EF over Narc how are you so certain of this tie and the tie leads to both dying. The rules are not clear, so it is again an assumption on your part that everything is the exact same as the last game which may not be the case.

Chief Rum · 10-10-2011, 05:58 PM

Commo, while I don't feel as strongly about things as dubb, he's undeniably right, and I tend to agree with him here. Fact is, we're lynching Narc and then we're lynching EF. Or we're lynching EF and then we're lynching Narc. Nothing can be done to save them. Might as well write them off now.

If you accept that as incontrovertible and unavoidable, the only decision left to be made is whether we can help the village by killing them both off at once, rather than wasting a day killing one and then the other. Your vote goes directly against this, and so it's essentially an intentional vote to hurt the village. Can you understand why dubb would wonder why a villager would want to hurt the village?

Even if chances are we can't engineer a tie due to unknown influences (like the mysterious "+1" mechanism), we still need to at least try. The correct response is never "it's too hard, or unlikely to work, so why try?"

And it doesn't matter if EF is a wolf or a villager. We are not going to find out what he is in any way except by lynching him. And we are not going to let the issue of EF just hang there without being resolved either. So regardless of his allegiance, he will be lynched. There's no sense in making some "I don't think he's a wolf" stance when he's going to get lynched no matter what you do.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 05:58 PM

7 narcizo - hoops, grammaticus, mauboy, autumn, narcizo, mckerney, Commo
5 EagleFan - jackal, J23, thomkal, Chief, Dubb

So if someone wants a tie one of the other Narc voters need to switch to EF.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 06:01 PM

I'll tell you what if one of the other voters doesn't come on and switch, 15 minutes before deadline I will switch.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 06:02 PM

I do understand and firmly believe EF has to be lynched though, but I'd rather not vote for him unless absolutely necessary.

Chief Rum · 10-10-2011, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I do understand and firmly believe EF has to be lynched though, but I'd rather not vote for him unless absolutely necessary.

But why? His allegiance is not relevant to this vote. No one's going to be able to use these votes down the line to hang others, not based on vote choice, because it's udnerstood we were as a village aiming to produce a specific type of vote here.

Really, the only way to look suspicious in this vote is to make decisions which hurt or hamper the village's efforts, which is essentially what you're doing.

If there is some angle of this we're not seeing and an effort to try to lynch them together actually hruts the village, please enlighten us, so we can consider it.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

But why? His allegiance is not relevant to this vote. No one's going to be able to use these votes down the line to hang others, not based on vote choice, because it's udnerstood we were as a village aiming to produce a specific type of vote here.

Really, the only way to look suspicious in this vote is to make decisions which hurt or hamper the village's efforts, which is essentially what you're doing.

If there is some angle of this we're not seeing and an effort to try to lynch them together actually hruts the village, please enlighten us, so we can consider it.

I could see it being used later to hang others. For example say the +1 vote is on EF, to save a wolf those on EF should be scrutinized for it. As for my vote it has not yet, and will not hurt the tie as I stated I will move if no one else does.

Chief Rum · 10-10-2011, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I could see it being used later to hang others. For example say the +1 vote is on EF, to save a wolf those on EF should be scrutinized for it. As for my vote it has not yet, and will not hurt the tie as I stated I will move if no one else does.

Someone may try, but it's pretty well out there, the value of this vote in determining allegiance of the voters. They would be fighting a significant uphill battle. I for one wouldn't attach one iota of meaning to this vote. Heck, chances are, we're looking at two wolves anyway.

As for the +1 vote, that's a rather small data point among many which we may use to determine allegiance down the road, while we have concrete evidence (albeit metagamey) that a tie could produce a double lynch and put the village that far ahead.

If you're going to move it anyway, I am not sure why you would bother to wait until 15 minutes before deadline. That's just asking for shenanigans.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Someone may try, but it's pretty well out there, the value of this vote in determining allegiance of the voters. They would be fighting a significant uphill battle. I for one wouldn't attach one iota of meaning to this vote. Heck, chances are, we're looking at two wolves anyway.

As for the +1 vote, that's a rather small data point among many which we may use to determine allegiance down the road, while we have concrete evidence (albeit metagamey) that a tie could produce a double lynch and put the village that far ahead.

If you're going to move it anyway, I am not sure why you would bother to wait until 15 minutes before deadline. That's just asking for shenanigans.

I don't think it is too far out there this could come down to only 3 villagers left and at that point one has to take the entire game voting history into things, among other stuff. As for why I'd switch later, because I really don't want to vote for him, but will for the villages sake. If someone else feels strongly against EF they can easily switch, but I'm not going to just vote for him right away because everyone else had already voted.

Chief Rum · 10-10-2011, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I don't think it is too far out there this could come down to only 3 villagers left and at that point one has to take the entire game voting history into things, among other stuff. As for why I'd switch later, because I really don't want to vote for him, but will for the villages sake. If someone else feels strongly against EF they can easily switch, but I'm not going to just vote for him right away because everyone else had already voted.

You understand that what you're doing right now makes you look far worse than how you would like with the +1 thing right?

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 06:29 PM

If others see it that way, that is fine, but I think the other way looks worse. If EF comes up a villager I'm guessing most of the remaining wolves, if not all, are on EF.

dubb93 · 10-10-2011, 06:32 PM

Commo I'm not sure you should be too worried about what it will look like when only 3 people are left. Your stance here has all but guaranteed you will not be alive when there are only three people left.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

Commo I'm not sure you should be too worried about what it will look like when only 3 people are left. Your stance here has all but guaranteed you will not be alive when there are only three people left.

Bolded the important part, I may be and it should matter. Even if I'm not alive it should have importance to those that are alive.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 06:39 PM

Dola, if EF does come up villager I think the next best person to lynch may be Dubb, especially if it is just EF to die tonight.

Chief Rum · 10-10-2011, 06:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Dola, if EF does come up villager I think the next best person to lynch may be Dubb, especially if it is just EF to die tonight.

No, if EF comes up a villager tonight, the next best person is Narc.

dubb93 · 10-10-2011, 06:52 PM

Commo bolded "but"

Am I missing something? How could that possibly be the important part of that? What if I had left it out?

Chief Rum · 10-10-2011, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

Commo bolded "but"

Am I missing something? How could that possibly be the important part of that? What if I had left it out?

I think he's saying it's not 100% he won't be around, so he doesn't want to risk it (regardless of our varying determinations of what that "risk" is).

dubb93 · 10-10-2011, 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I think he's saying it's not 100% he won't be around, so he doesn't want to risk it (regardless of our varying determinations of what that "risk" is).

Quite frankly I think voting for down the road rather than right now is not something that even enters a villagers mind. As a villager I have never thought, "I need to vote this guy so it looks good in three days." That is seeing the game through the eyes of a wolf which would make perfect sense if Commo is a wolf.

Chief Rum · 10-10-2011, 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

Quite frankly I think voting for down the road rather than right now is not something that even enters a villagers mind. As a villager I have never thought, "I need to vote this guy so it looks good in three days." That is seeing the game through the eyes of a wolf which would make perfect sense if Commo is a wolf.

I still think he's a new villager who doesn't understand the implications of what he's doing.

That said, I agree with you, it does have that look to it.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

No, if EF comes up a villager tonight, the next best person is Narc.

Good one, yes if only EF is killed, but if both, Dubb will be one of the top people on my list if EF was a villager.

hoopsguy · 10-10-2011, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

If others see it that way, that is fine, but I think the other way looks worse. If EF comes up a villager I'm guessing most of the remaining wolves, if not all, are on EF.

I suspect that the wolves would spread their votes out even if there was a villager among the two people we have up for vote today. They are a near certainty to go back-to-back, so there isn't a lot of reason for them to risk looking suspicious unless we are somehow in an end-game scenario. And I think that possibility is about as low as the chances that EF is the bumbling villager that he purports to be.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I think he's saying it's not 100% he won't be around, so he doesn't want to risk it (regardless of our varying determinations of what that "risk" is).

This, and not that it will really matter if the Flame saves me, but I think everyone should always be cautious of the actions they perform as it can come back to get them later. If I'm wrong and that is only what wolves do, maybe villagers want to start worrying about this occasionally so they don't come across as a wolf.

Commo_Soldier · 10-10-2011, 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I suspect that the wolves would spread their votes out even if there was a villager among the two people we have up for vote today. They are a near certainty to go back-to-back, so there isn't a lot of reason for them to risk looking suspicious unless we are somehow in an end-game scenario. And I think that possibility is about as low as the chances that EF is the bumbling villager that he purports to be.

I think they will split up the votes too, but if there are are an odd number, I think more are on a villager EF, that is if there is a villager.

dubb93 · 10-10-2011, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Good one, yes if only EF is killed, but if both, Dubb will be one of the top people on my list if EF was a villager.

Yes, I should be suspect #1. My usual MO as a wolf is to argue with people until I am blue in the face in defense of my fellow wolves to merely by them an extra day at most. This fits right in line with my usual wolf play in the off chance the sun and the moon align just right and EF is the 2nd detective.

dubb93 · 10-10-2011, 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I think they will split up the votes too, but if there are are an odd number, I think more are on a villager EF, that is if there is a villager.

If we are wolf/villager I suspect every wolf is on the wolf, including Narc himself as fate would have it.

J23 · 10-10-2011, 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

Yes, I should be suspect #1. My usual MO as a wolf is to argue with people until I am blue in the face in defense of my fellow wolves to merely by them an extra day at most. This fits right in line with my usual wolf play in the off chance the sun and the moon align just right and EF is the 2nd detective.

I'm not sure what your usual MO is as a wolf, but I've seen this MO quite often from what I can remember

Grammaticus · 10-10-2011, 07:48 PM

The tie strategy is bad right now. The only way it would even be a decent option is if Narc's vote was on EF. Narc will just show up and pull his vote off of himself. Anyone who votes for themselves in this scenario that Narc is in, is obviously full of crap.

Best deal is to take Narc now with a clear vote and take EF tomorrow.

dubb93 · 10-10-2011, 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

The tie strategy is bad right now. The only way it would even be a decent option is if Narc's vote was on EF. Narc will just show up and pull his vote off of himself. Anyone who votes for themselves in this scenario that Narc is in, is obviously full of crap.

Best deal is to take Narc now with a clear vote and take EF tomorrow.

Please explain this further. Why does it matter if EF dies today and Narc tomorrow rather than Narc today and EF tomorrow? The tie gives the village a chance at a 2 for 1, a straight vote of Narc or EF gives the village no chance at a 2 for 1. And make no mistake, they are both going to die. It is just a matter or if we give them 2 night kills for the 2 lynches or we just let them get 1 night kill between killing them both.

dubb93 · 10-10-2011, 07:58 PM

I feel like my head is about to explode. I'm done arguing.

If you really want to spend all day tomorrow having everyone voting the Narc/EF leftover then fine. Just lynch one of them. But someone who is campaigning that idea is a wolf. The only people that benefit that scenario are the wolves b/c they get to NK tonight after 1 of them dies and then again tomorrow after the other ones dies before we get a shot @ working with all the info.

Do as you guys will.

hoopsguy · 10-10-2011, 07:59 PM

Also, Narcizo would be getting up around 3-4AM his time to change his vote. Not saying it couldn't happen, but he hasn't done this at all in the past.

Grammaticus · 10-10-2011, 08:01 PM

If we kill Narc today and EF cannot act tonight, then he cannot make a kill tonight. If there are more than two wolves left, then a third will have to act.

For all we know a tie can result in a not lynch or there could be some other tie breaker mechanic that screws us.

10-10-2011, 05:38 PM	#2856
Commo_Soldier College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: JBLM, WA	I never said we wouldn't lynch EF, or that it will change the vote today. All I said was I'm not voting for EF today when I'm not 100% sold on him, but am on Narc. __________________ I killed a wolf and I liked it.

10-10-2011, 05:43 PM	#2861
Commo_Soldier College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: JBLM, WA	Dola, or just kill off me because of the +1 item. __________________ I killed a wolf and I liked it.

10-10-2011, 05:50 PM	#2867
Commo_Soldier College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: JBLM, WA	Dola, what makes you think I'm a wolf anyways? __________________ I killed a wolf and I liked it.

10-10-2011, 05:58 PM	#2871
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Commo, while I don't feel as strongly about things as dubb, he's undeniably right, and I tend to agree with him here. Fact is, we're lynching Narc and then we're lynching EF. Or we're lynching EF and then we're lynching Narc. Nothing can be done to save them. Might as well write them off now. If you accept that as incontrovertible and unavoidable, the only decision left to be made is whether we can help the village by killing them both off at once, rather than wasting a day killing one and then the other. Your vote goes directly against this, and so it's essentially an intentional vote to hurt the village. Can you understand why dubb would wonder why a villager would want to hurt the village? Even if chances are we can't engineer a tie due to unknown influences (like the mysterious "+1" mechanism), we still need to at least try. The correct response is never "it's too hard, or unlikely to work, so why try?" And it doesn't matter if EF is a wolf or a villager. We are not going to find out what he is in any way except by lynching him. And we are not going to let the issue of EF just hang there without being resolved either. So regardless of his allegiance, he will be lynched. There's no sense in making some "I don't think he's a wolf" stance when he's going to get lynched no matter what you do. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

10-10-2011, 05:58 PM	#2872
Commo_Soldier College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: JBLM, WA	7 narcizo - hoops, grammaticus, mauboy, autumn, narcizo, mckerney, Commo 5 EagleFan - jackal, J23, thomkal, Chief, Dubb So if someone wants a tie one of the other Narc voters need to switch to EF. __________________ I killed a wolf and I liked it.

10-10-2011, 05:29 PM	#2853
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	I won't be around at deadline to help w switches.

10-10-2011, 06:01 PM	#2873
Commo_Soldier College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: JBLM, WA	I'll tell you what if one of the other voters doesn't come on and switch, 15 minutes before deadline I will switch. __________________ I killed a wolf and I liked it.

10-10-2011, 06:02 PM	#2874
Commo_Soldier College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: JBLM, WA	I do understand and firmly believe EF has to be lynched though, but I'd rather not vote for him unless absolutely necessary. __________________ I killed a wolf and I liked it.

10-10-2011, 06:29 PM	#2880
Commo_Soldier College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: JBLM, WA	If others see it that way, that is fine, but I think the other way looks worse. If EF comes up a villager I'm guessing most of the remaining wolves, if not all, are on EF. __________________ I killed a wolf and I liked it.

10-10-2011, 06:39 PM	#2883
Commo_Soldier College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: JBLM, WA	Dola, if EF does come up villager I think the next best person to lynch may be Dubb, especially if it is just EF to die tonight. __________________ I killed a wolf and I liked it.

10-10-2011, 07:48 PM	#2896
Grammaticus Pro Rookie Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Tennessee	The tie strategy is bad right now. The only way it would even be a decent option is if Narc's vote was on EF. Narc will just show up and pull his vote off of himself. Anyone who votes for themselves in this scenario that Narc is in, is obviously full of crap. Best deal is to take Narc now with a clear vote and take EF tomorrow.

10-10-2011, 07:59 PM	#2899
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Also, Narcizo would be getting up around 3-4AM his time to change his vote. Not saying it couldn't happen, but he hasn't done this at all in the past.

10-10-2011, 08:01 PM	#2900
Grammaticus Pro Rookie Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Tennessee	If we kill Narc today and EF cannot act tonight, then he cannot make a kill tonight. If there are more than two wolves left, then a third will have to act. For all we know a tie can result in a not lynch or there could be some other tie breaker mechanic that screws us.

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