WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Barkeep, you are a good basketball coach but you are wrong on this. I didnt claim to know anything, I just said I came across a pattern that may suggest Claph and I didnt like how pumpy was posting. And yes, I already admitted to stirring the pot.

Well first you must not have been reading my dynasty lately. Good coaching is not something I would attribute to myself.

Second, what's the pattern against clap? It's D1. Share your reasoning.

At the moment I'm trying to figure out what reason someone would have for drawing so much attention onto themselves. Anyone have any ideas as to why nfg has so clearly desired the spotlight on himself?

[saldana]

hi gang, sorry i am late to the party..fell asleep before family guy even came on last night, and monday's are my busiest day at work

ironically, my scan was JeHeinz for N0...he came up student.

i am interested to hear more from Clap on how he knows that Heinz wont be around today (see dodgerchicks posts above)

right now, one of them (or pumpy) is likely to get my vote.

[Greyroofoo]

My proposed scanning groups if we want to go this route
This was just done alphabetically

Group - 1
Barkeep49
Bask16
Chief Rum
claphamsa
DodgerChick

Group - 2
Greyroofoo
jeheinz72
Lathum
mauboy1
MikeVic

Group - 3
Mr Wednesday
nfg22
ntndeacon
oliegirl
Passacaglia

Group - 4
Pumpy Tudors
RenderR
saldana
SnDvls
st cronin
The Jackal

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by saldana

hi gang, sorry i am late to the party..fell asleep before family guy even came on last night, and monday's are my busiest day at work

ironically, my scan was JeHeinz for N0...he came up student.

i am interested to hear more from Clap on how he knows that Heinz wont be around today (see dodgerchicks posts above)

right now, one of them (or pumpy) is likely to get my vote.

I already answered.....
Hes never around on weekends (you all should know that from past games) And today is a weekend for most of us!

[nfg22]

Bk, you are a good coach, you think about chemistry more than most and your strategy never seems that bad.

Anyways. Claph, Anyone could be lucky but the larger sample size we have the less luck involved. I know 3 isnt much bigger than 1 but it is 3x the sample size.

Basically I just looked at duplicate scans and looked for simularities in the names or positions on the signup board, to see why each would have scanned that person. Clap was part of a triple scan, he was the only one that didnt fit that pattern based on position. This is very weak evidence and I dont even think we should vote for claph. You will find patterns wherever you look.

[MikeVic]

So many numbers! Anyway, I won't be in much since there's a holiday here today.

I really don't know who to consider a wolf yet. But I don't like how nfg accused Pumpy based on that he posted a few times without contributing to the conversation. It's his first game, so what's he gonna do... post some big spreadsheet analysis? And then he suggests that we lynch the people with the most scans.... well surprise surprise, at that point Pumpy already had 3 scans.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

For path: Can you clarify exactly how the scans work? Let's say you did your 5d20 and I rolled a 20. I then send in a scan. Presumably there is a dice roll at this point. Let's say I fail. Do I receive the "wrong" response automatically? Or is there a second roll (presumably 50/50) to determine what result I get?

I'd be happy to clarify. Here is how the scans work:

Let's say that path12 is a wolf. Barkeep49 has a 20% accuracy rate as stated above and he decides to send in a scan for path12.

There is a die roll at this point, let's say it is 50. Barkeep has failed his scan.

His response will read something along these lines: Your scan indicates path12 is a student.

[nfg22]

Yeah...why would I want to lynch Pumpy if he is new and I am a wolf? Wouldnt it be better to lynch someone that has experience?

[nfg22]

Dola, I am out for a few hours. See yall later.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by path12

I'd be happy to clarify. Here is how the scans work:

Let's say that path12 is a wolf. Barkeep49 has a 20% accuracy rate as stated above and he decides to send in a scan for path12.

There is a die roll at this point, let's say it is 50. Barkeep has failed his scan.

His response will read something along these lines: Your scan indicates path12 is a student.

what roll does he need to succeed....less than 20 or 80+?

[path12]

Originally Posted by nfg22

I have an idea. Are allowed to pick who we scan?

Yes. Each night each player may submit a person they would like to scan that night. Just send me a PM stating who you'd like to scan. You can send this in at any time, but that is specifically what the four hours after lynch are for.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm neither. I Just don't like people who try and make themselves immune from voting in that way. I don't like runaway votes. Let's give ourselves a second target.

Vote nfg22

I've got this one, but votes bolded in blue please.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by nfg22

I have an idea. Are allowed to pick who we scan?

It is my understanding that night 0 we were assigned random targets and now we can select our own candidates.

Originally Posted by nfg22

I say we kill the person who has the most scans on them. Then we have the most data to cross reference against. Basically if we kill someone with 3 scans, and they were a villager, and all 3 scans said villager, then we know 3people were right. Thus giving us data on 3 people instead of less.

I don't really agree with this. The more someone comes up good in a scan the more likely they are to be a villager. Even if a wolf claimed to have scanned someone and they came up good then that still makes them a villager so why would we kill them.

I think the best course of action is a no lynch tonight and hold off until tomorrow when we have 2 nights of info.

[path12]

Originally Posted by saldana

what roll does he need to succeed....less than 20 or 80+?

A player with a 20% accuracy rate would need to roll 1-20 for their scan to be correct.

[Greyroofoo]

dola just to propose whom I think each group should scan (taken from the sign up list on page 1)

Group 1 - Lathum
Group 2 - clap
Group 3 - RenderR
Group 4 - Barkeep49

[Chief Rum]

For path:

The statistical possibility of 12 straight (by my count) student scans is infinitesimal, and that's discounting seven votes as probable wolves or the Fool or the Teacher's Pet. This suggests to me there is something funky with the N0 scans. Were those scan results generated in the same manner scans will be generated the rest of the game? Or are they arbitrary in some other unrelated way, or maybe even all "students" automatically?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

A player with a 20% accuracy rate would need to roll 1-20 for their scan to be correct.

When you check for accuracy, do you use an online rnadom program like ransom.org or do you use the 5d20 again?

That makes a difference, as it drops us back to just 50% accuracy on average (after all, a 20% accuracy on a 5d20 roll, if 20 is the point of accuracy, is success on a 5-20, not 1-20; 1-4 is not possible rolling 5d20).

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

When you check for accuracy, do you use an online rnadom program like ransom.org or do you use the 5d20 again?.

I don't want to know what you are doing right now but if I hear of a kidnapping I am calling the cops...

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Yeah...why would I want to lynch Pumpy if he is new and I am a wolf? Wouldnt it be better to lynch someone that has experience?

I don't know, but it happened to me in my first game.

[Pumpy Tudors]

This is all starting to sound awfully serious. I'm just trying to have fun.

[The Jackal]

I'm hesitant to vote for heinz at this point. If he's a wolf, getting him out of the game early is good. But he can be a very valuable good role, so without even hearing from him I'm not comfortable knocking him out at this stage.

[Dr. Sak]

Keep having fun...don't take it to heart...they are just trying to break you

[Pumpy Tudors]

I will openly say that I have no idea who any of the wolves are, but I do hope that they all catch an itchy sensation in their nether regions.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

I will openly say that I have no idea who any of the wolves are, but I do hope that they all catch an itchy sensation in their nether regions.

What is this, revenge of the nerds?

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

What is this, revenge of the nerds?

You mean this isn't the Revenge of the Nerds game? I THINK I JOINED THE WRONG WEREWOLF GAME, GUYS!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by bsak16

I don't want to know what you are doing right now but if I hear of a kidnapping I am calling the cops...

lol...random.org

[Chief Rum]

I am not inclined to vote jeheinz right now, since he won't be around. That said, I am very inclined to vote jeheinz tomorrow without a proper explanation for why he joined a game scheduled to start on Monday (a holiday) and then wouldn't bother to check in at all through a N0 scan, a whole D period and a N1 scan, which will end tonight.

Weekend time is all well and good, but if you can't even commit to show up for a post without explanation, why join?

All retracted, of course, if he shows up.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by saldana

what roll does he need to succeed....less than 20 or 80+?

What an odd question.

[The Jackal]

I don't like being stalled with two votes on heinz, so just to encourage something..

vote render

[Barkeep49]

A couple of people have said they don't like voting jh. I would encourage you to vote with me then against nfg.

Also I like the the scanning schedule posted and will be scanning Lathum tonight as per what Grey posted.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What an odd question.

I thought the same thing.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by path12

I've got this one, but votes bolded in blue please.

Man what kind of crappy GM would have a rule like that

Sorry about the lack of color.

[Pumpy Tudors]

So I thought we were voting for the person we wanted to all have sex with. During the night phase, everyone who voted for that person gets him/her in a gangbang. And the person who's getting plowed can't complain, because they signed up knowing that it was a possibility. I guess I'm not really understanding this game properly, and now I know why you all think I'm a wolf.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

It is my understanding that night 0 we were assigned random targets and now we can select our own candidates.



I don't really agree with this. The more someone comes up good in a scan the more likely they are to be a villager. Even if a wolf claimed to have scanned someone and they came up good then that still makes them a villager so why would we kill them.

I think the best course of action is a no lynch tonight and hold off until tomorrow when we have 2 nights of info.

I agree with this.

VOTE NO LYNCH

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

For path:

The statistical possibility of 12 straight (by my count) student scans is infinitesimal, and that's discounting seven votes as probable wolves or the Fool or the Teacher's Pet. This suggests to me there is something funky with the N0 scans. Were those scan results generated in the same manner scans will be generated the rest of the game? Or are they arbitrary in some other unrelated way, or maybe even all "students" automatically?

Originally Posted by path12

I will not divulge any circumstances regarding N0 choices other than to say that duplication is indeed possible, and that the process was completely up to me alone.

Here's the current vote totals:

jeheinz 2 -- Dodgerchick(202), Pumpy Tudors(207)
The Jackal 1 -- claphamsa(91)
RendeR 1 -- st.cronin(210)
nfg22 1 -- Barkeep49(239)

Not voted: Everyone else.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

So I thought we were voting for the person we wanted to all have sex with.

Yeah I wanna do naughty things with a bottle of heinz ketchup.

[Lorena]

And no lynch because.... ? I was under the impression that a lynch was good regardless of who we get rid of. No lynching Day 1 is like giving the wolves a free shot. IMO, shooting in the dark and failing is better than not shooting at all.

[Greyroofoo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I agree with this.

VOTE NO LYNCH

ditto

VOTE NO LYNCH[/b]

[MikeVic]

You people are dirty.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I agree with this.

VOTE NO LYNCH

I didn't even realize no lynch was an option in this game.

unvote render

vote no lynch

[SnDvls]

just for clarification is not voting considered a "no vote"


need to know for my end of game/start of next game rant

[claphamsa]

Back to ketchup porn already?

Jezze poeple!

[Greyroofoo]

bah, i'm not allowed to edit am i

[MikeVic]

I'll scan clap as suggested.

[SnDvls]

dola -

I mean "no lynch" not "no vote"

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I thought the same thing.

I guess CR's question helped explain where he was coming from, but I assumed that the roll of accuracy was 1-100.

Anyway, my problem with nfg's plan is that we've got people who haven't ponied up any information -- jeheinz and Pumpy. It makes more sense to go after them than clap, I think. I'm willing to give them a pass for a day, in the hopes that we get some info on/from them later, though.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

And no lynch because.... ? I was under the impression that a lynch was good regardless of who we get rid of. No lynching Day 1 is like giving the wolves a free shot. IMO, shooting in the dark and failing is better than not shooting at all.

I agree completely.... as I do every game!

[path12]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

So I thought we were voting for the person we wanted to all have sex with. During the night phase, everyone who voted for that person gets him/her in a gangbang. And the person who's getting plowed can't complain, because they signed up knowing that it was a possibility. I guess I'm not really understanding this game properly, and now I know why you all think I'm a wolf.

I now have a theme for my next game. Thanks!

[Pumpy Tudors]

I really want to butter Lathum's biscuits.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I am not inclined to vote jeheinz right now, since he won't be around. That said, I am very inclined to vote jeheinz tomorrow without a proper explanation for why he joined a game scheduled to start on Monday (a holiday) and then wouldn't bother to check in at all through a N0 scan, a whole D period and a N1 scan, which will end tonight.

Weekend time is all well and good, but if you can't even commit to show up for a post without explanation, why join?

All retracted, of course, if he shows up.

I think he only posts from work, and maybe at the time of signing up didn't realize that the first day phase would coincide with a day he wouldn't be at work.. how often does that happen.