WW - The Lost Boys (Game Over; Vampires Win)

[hoopsguy]

Posts of interest to me, most of them by RendeR:

D1 runoff = Chief Rum + Pass
Post #97 from Autumn = "You still paying attention, Render? 'cause it's getting close to a tie and I don't want a last second clusterfuck with three people "fixing" to tie

This looks worse in light of Chief Rum not being cleared.

Post #101 - RendeR posts "You a fortune teller Autumn? Possible tip-off for wolves 8 minutes before deadline, although it is not processed in kill actions. Still, something that may have been observed during overnight review of posts and manifested in Day 2 votes, assuming an observant wolf (PLEASE NOTE THAT I WAS NOT AROUND UNTIL DAY 3 IN THIS GAME!!!!)

Post #150 - RendeR "still feeling odd about Chief" but he doesn't reveal a scan on him so I'm guessing he was not the scan target.

Post #170 - RendeR "pondering between DT and Chief Rum right now for reasons I will state later" (Rum w/2 votes, DT 1 at time of this post)

Post #188 - RendeR "You really don't want to vote me"

Post #196 - RendeR "stop bickering and start fixing the votes ... Please don't vote my way tonight"

[hoopsguy]

So, here is my "I've been playing the game for one hour" trust list.

1) Chief Rum - moderate distrust, have different scenarios with Autumn stuck in my head that involve him. Seemed to be on RendeR's potential list to scan based on posts, which may have put wolves in position to risk bodyguard block to eliminate RendeR. Smart enough to have picked up on RendeR hint post late Day 1, but not around at deadline to do anything about it. Sole voter on RA D1 and on RendeR D2, so voting record seems risky as well.

2) saldana - close to even, maybe slight distrust based on impression that he would have been ready to jump onto bandwagon for me if it had started. But wasn't willing to start it himself.

5) The Jackal - moderate distrust. The fact that a couple of people posted thoughts on giving space to him + me for Day 1 no-shows, and continued to give me space on Day 2 makes me worry that he was/is a wolf. Probably an example of werewolf paranoia kicking in hard, but I haven't been able to get around this feeling while going through posts.

6) Autumn - high distrust as the last remaining unknown voter on Chief Rum Day 1, although he seemed OK with his horse not winning that race (didn't move, but was pushing others to make their votes count late). I firmly believe that wolves want to scatter their votes every day, if at all possible. With CR as one of the top candidates, I think that there had to be a wolf on him unless CR was a wolf and the other wolves felt pressured to stay away from him. But the late votes on Pass came from villagers, so it wasn't wolves actively deciding that vote. This is my likely vote for today.

7) hoopsguy - villager (self-proclaimed as maker of this list)

8) Danny - has revealed as bodyguard, unchallenged so far.

9) DaddyTorgo - slight distrust, RendeR also mentioned him as possible candidate for vote so logic I applied on CR should be equally applicable here.

12) J23 - slight distrust, as I think his voting record is pretty poor at the moment. One of two on declared BG D1 + early RendeR voter. Same arguments I've got with CR in terms of potentially picking up on RendeR post late D1, but not at much at risk of being scanned based on rep + past games with RendeR.

13) Darth Vilus - seem to never trust him, but right now he is a straight neutral for me.



All in all, not much trusting going on but there are different grades of distrust.

[hoopsguy]

I'll go ahead and get thing started, not knowing just how much I'll be online tomorrow. In theory, Thursday afternoon is a better day for me than most since I can access the site from that client (regular appointment for me).

VOTE AUTUMN

[Chief Rum]

Man, a lot has happened while I was away at work. And another poor night for the village.

One good thing, though, that I'll note: It's an immense pleasure to come home and see such detailed posts from one Mr. Hoopsguy, whose analysis and play could be used as a field guide for expert WW players. Glad to see you're around, hoops.

As for your vote choice, I haven't really gotten a vibe feeling on Autumn, although he has certainly piqued my interest with what he's said/done about me.

We absolutely need to make this a winner of a lynch, because we can't afford any more misses with the role hits we have taken.

I must admit that the most intriguing play to me is the earlier discussion about who was around at the deadline, because Render's post, while not an out and out, was a clear announcement otherwise, that he was a role of some import. It is a bit meta-gamey, but there are certainly candidates to consider there, and it's hard to ignore that, no matter how we got the info.

hoops, I see what you're talking about with respect to a Day 1 Render hit, but I think it's a reach to assume it was picked up on. I mean, I even remember that post, and I didn't pick up on that. Not that I am the pinnacle of observation, just sayin... For that reason, I put more credence in there being a wolf around near the Day Two deadline.

[Chief Rum]

Last paragraph, that should be a Day 1 Render hint, not hit.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by J23

I agree that it is likely there was a wolf around at deadline. I know the 3 of us were the ones still alive that were actively posting, but did you see if anyone was around and keeping up on the thread by chance? I believe Saldana might have been, but I'm not sure about that.

i had the thread open on my second monitor but wasnt really following along...i was busy getting slaughtered by the Lich King.

[saldana]

hoops...in answer to your impression that i would have voted for you if there had been a push, that is incorrect. i actually almost gave my nostalgia vote to you before it was apparent you werent here, but my inclination to NOT vote for you early in games overrode my desire to have a bit of fun, so pass became my no reason vote.

also, i dont see how casting a random day one vote for someone first makes me look bad, but thats fine. I havent been able to post alot because of crap at work (today will be the same...i wont even be able to check in), so i expect people to think i am trying to go UTR.

[hoopsguy]

Saldana, the "look bad" part goes to the argument that Day 1 is random ... until it is not. As information emerges throughout the game, you start taking a look at those random votes and try to discern who was making votes that had a purpose at a point where there should have been no purpose.

Sadly, at this point you have votes on two known villagers. Now the legitimate counter to this is that "wolves can have the best voting records" and it does happen like that sometimes. But fundamentally the wolves do want to get rid of villagers, and they do want to have their votes dispersed from each other as much as possible. So I think it is incumbent upon everyone to try hard to evaluate voting data and place proper (whatever that means) context on it. Right now, in my mind, your voting data looks "bad" but I think there are bigger fish to fry based on where I rated people in my levels of distrust.

[DaddyTorgo]

hoopsguy is here? awesome. here we go village.

[EagleFan]

hoops has returned in force it seems.

[DaddyTorgo]

Building on what hoops said as well as my own thoughts on the matter (which unfortunately at the moment I can't recall as I seem to be getting a headache, and i'm at work), but which I recall were around some things pointed out by others (although maybe autumn - so I should go back and check that out)...i think we learn maybe a bit more by going after CR than autumn based on the D1 votes, as if CR is a wolf that should make autumn look better while narrowing down the list of where other wolves might be hiding (since they wouldn't be on CR presumably).

If anybody is curious I can go back and look through the posts and see what it was that piqued my interest.

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[J23]

Vote Autumn

I think it's very likely that a wolf was around near deadline last night, and knowing that I'm not a wolf, and Danny still being unchallenged, that narrows the field quite a bit. I know Saldana was around as well, and possibly another lurking, but this combined with Hoops's (Hoops' ?) reasoning above is enough to sell me on Autumn as a wolf.

[EagleFan]

As of post 262:

J23 1 - Danny (125)
Chief Rum 2 - Autumn (226), DaddyTorgo (261)
Autumn 2 - hoopsguy (253), J23 (262)

[Autumn]

I actually like this fairly well. Hoops' reasoning makes sense, and since I know I wasn't up to any shenanigans, it makes me feel pretty good about my vote on Chief. A toss up between me and Chief in my mind puts our best wolf candidate up against a vanilla villager and I think that's a good vote to get down on the record. I fully expected to get votes today, as Danny laid the groundwork for some suspicion on me, and both the village and wolves will be glad to follow a respected, presumed villager's thoughts. Following that with Hoops laid out reasoning, it's an easy path for the wolves to follow (Presuming Hoops isn't one of them to begin with).

I certainly can't dispute that I'm the last vote left on Chief, but knowing I"m a villager that just makes me think we may have really had a wolf pinned early. If you guys end up lynching me rather than him, I certainly hope you turn right back to him, and observe carefully who have kept the vote away from him three times.

However, I"ll say this, that if you lynch me, Chief is still out there to be checked out, and if he ends up being a red herring we're in bad shape. I for one would like to settle the CR question and unpack what vote history that gives us.

[hoopsguy]

With each passing arrival, and lack of a challenge, Danny's reveal is looking better and better. I'll wait until after the game to ask why he didn't look at blocking RendeR last night.

And the wolves showed some moxie if they did in fact switch their lynch to RendeR last night, given the pretty high likelihood that he would be blocked after his strong hints in thread about being a roled player. Not yet sure what to make of that, although I gave some initial thoughts on it in my "distrust list" post earlier.

[Autumn]

I would assume they were hoping that the bodyguard wasn't around at the end to send in a new block. Seemed a pretty decent chance, given how late his reveal came. I would have taken the chance if I were them.

And I think Danny already explained his move, Hoops, or maybe you just wanted more detail.

[hoopsguy]

Autumn, I wasn't around at the deadline so I don't know who was in thread. But I did see that there were a few vote changes away from Render ... my impression, based just on posts/votes was at least half the room was present.

As far as Danny's explanation, which was in Post #233, I've got questions to ask but don't see a ton of value in them right now if he is the bodyguard. So I'll let them lie unless something emerges to make me think that he is not the bodyguard.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Autumn, I wasn't around at the deadline so I don't know who was in thread. But I did see that there were a few vote changes away from Render ... my impression, based just on posts/votes was at least half the room was present.

I'd make about the same guess, Hoops, yeah. So if I'm a wolf and have a 50% chance to catch the seer unguarded before he can reveal any scans, I'm going to take that, versus letting him live 'til the next day when he can both reveal scans, and when I still have a 50% chance at whether he's guarded the next night. Just a smart numbers move by the wolves I think.

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Darth Vilus - seem to never trust him, but right now he is a straight neutral for me.

.

Lol, in a completely non-game related way it's very foolish to trust anyone with the word "Darth" in their name. Good job

Aside from that, I didn't feel good about Rum yesterday and i still don't today.

Vote Chief Rum

i have to head to work now but I WILL be back before deadline. Let's see how today works out

[The Jackal]

Vote autumn

I think I trust the people on CR less

[EagleFan]

As of post 270:

J23 1 - Danny (125)
Chief Rum 3 - Autumn (226), DaddyTorgo (261), Darth Vilus (269)
Autumn 3 - hoopsguy (253), J23 (262), The Jackal (270)

[Chief Rum]

Very quiet day.

I can't quibble about the decision to have me as a candidate, because I know there is value in the past votes to knowing what my allegiance is. That said, the goal is to lynch wolves, and you won't get one going that route.

Of course, if Autumn is also telling the truth, we're basically up crap creek at this point, with two villagers on the block. So I hope he's a wolf.

Self-presevration vote.

VOTE AUTUMN

[Danny]

Unvote J23
Vote Autumn

[hoopsguy]

I have to say, this has been one of the more polite days of WW that I can recall

Not like it is all piss and vinegar, but both candidates have been pretty accepting of their positions ... I'm just used to more acrimony, I guess.

[saldana]

i said yesterday that his vote for a new candidate at quarter of 7 was odd for me, so i have no problem going in this direction, at the risk of appearing to pile on...his vote yesterday looked like he was trying to bury himself on a villager and not be part of the lynch to me.

vote autumn

[EagleFan]

As of post 275:

Autumn 6 - hoopsguy (253), J23 (262), The Jackal (270), Chief Rum (272), Danny (273), saldana (275)
Chief Rum 3 - Autumn (226), DaddyTorgo (261), Darth Vilus (269)

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by saldana

i said yesterday that his vote for a new candidate at quarter of 7 was odd for me, so i have no problem going in this direction, at the risk of appearing to pile on...his vote yesterday looked like he was trying to bury himself on a villager and not be part of the lynch to me.

vote autumn

I don't have any great rhetoric left to sway anyone's vote at this point. However, I have to quibble with this. I cast my vote against the grain on day two, for a new candidate with about three hours to go before deadline, if I recall. With something like 20 minutes left i moved my vote to one of the two remaining candidates, to assure we didn't have a tie, and to remain relevant. I don't think there's any way you can cast that as burying my vote. In fact I was getting flak because I didn't vote for one of the vote getters at 7.

[Autumn]

In addition my vote for Chief on day one was for a stated reason, and an early vote, sticking my neck out there, unlike many, many votes from others that have either given no reason for been following a crowd.

Thirdly here on day three, I followed the reasoning I've been given from my very first posts on day one, shifting my vote back on Chief given the lack of a seer in the game at this point. I don't think you can find a more cohesive and coherent voting history from a player in this game. So vote me if you want, but not because i have some sort of "shady" voting.

[Autumn]

Triple dola, sorry Saldana, I obviously didn't read your post carefully when I first responded.

I cast my vote at 7 wihtout checking the vote history. I said earlier I wanted to go back and vote based on vote history day one, and that's what I did. It was a solid vote with some analysis behind it, and I still stand by it. Three hours to go with a 2-1-1 vote I don't see any problem adding a new candidate, especially since the 2 vote person was someone I had said I wasn't going to vote for, and the other two did not ping me really.

[hoopsguy]

Autumn, feel like whipping up a trust list?

At this point it looks like you are heading out. Seeing the logic and reasoning of a deceased villager (or a wolf, actually) is almost always interesting to read heading into the next day.

[Autumn]

In true Werewolf fashion here's my paranoid list, Hoops.

Trust
Danny - though I still hold space in my mind for some wolf shenanigan here

Mildly Distrust
Chief Rum
Daddy Torgo
Hoopsguy
The Jackal
J23
Darth Vilus
Saldana

Chief and DT both pinged me early, just for hunch reasons, and the fact that with Chief as the leading candidate this morning, the pressure moves to me makes me think more of him as a suspect.

Hoops and Jackal are here due to having missed votes. I think it's important to remember that there could ahve been only one or zero wolves voting on days 1 and 2, which renders theories such as "There must have been a wolf on each candidate" meaningless.

J23 and Darth Vilus manage to cast meaningless votes both days. That's the best way to cruise to victory as a wolf I think, especially if the wolves don't include a "High profile" werewolf player like Lathum or Hoops.

Saldana, as he stated, has been quiet, and said a couple things that make he say hmmm. But I give him credit for having bold voting history here, having voted fairly early for the villager who bought it.

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, not giving much to work with going forward in terms of degrees of distrust. Surely there has to be some level of separation between those seven people?

[Autumn]

Not really for me, Hoops. I've voted Chief and DT, so I guess I'd put them above the others a bit but I don't feel I've figured anything out that would truly separate them from the rest. I gave my thoughts on each.

I guess if I had to order it I'd go maybe from most distrust to least:

Chief Rum
Darth Vilus / J23
Daddy Torgo
Hoopsguy / The Jackal
Saldana

But the degree of separation is slight.

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by Autumn

J23 and Darth Vilus manage to cast meaningless votes both days. That's the best way to cruise to victory as a wolf I think, especially if the wolves don't include a "High profile" werewolf player like Lathum or Hoops.

Hey hey now my friend, I cast the very 1st vote on day 1. Not my fault people didn't agree

[hoopsguy]

At this point I feel pretty good about the vote today. I think if Autumn was a villager that he would have given a greater effort to help the village by breaking down the remaining players.

We'll see if I was correct in about seven minutes, assuming that our moderator is ready to process results right away.

[hoopsguy]

Also, I'll go ahead and get a little ahead of myself.

I think that Autumn = villager means that chances are sky-high that Chief Rum is a wolf. But I don't think that the reverse is true. I think that Autumn may have gotten cute on Day 1 with his early vote on Chief if they were both wolves. I think this is especially likely if Autumn ends up as any wolf besides the cunning wolf.

Just throwing that out because I've got a bit of concern about being on the business end of the brutal wolf/night kill combo today. Brutal = bodyguard, night kill = me.

If it plays out that way, then I think there was a pretty good chance that we had two wolves on the hook today and they exercised the brutal in order to put together that sequence of events.

[EagleFan]

deadline

[EagleFan]

You gather yet again to try to find a vampire among you. This is becoming a habit that you would rather quit.

Early debate between Chif Rum and Autumn ensues. You soon decide the Autumn must be their ring leader. Where is he? The search commences...

You find him listening to Marilyn Manson and then you notice it. The black clothes, the dark eye shadow, the very white complexion....

Finally, you say to yourselves as you drag him outside.

He protests by telling you that he doesn't trust any of you, I guess the fact that you are about to drive a stake through his chest may have something to do with that.

He points towards hoops.... you!!!!

Me? Me what?

You really should listen to the new Manson CD, you'l like it.

Enough someone yells, let's put this blood sucker down. Someone grabes the stake and drives it through Autumn's chest. He falls lifeless to the ground. Upon searching him and around him you discover that he has a Marilyn Manson fanclub card but other than that there is nothing unusual.

Then you feel that familiar feeling in the pit of your stomach.

You have killed another villager. Are there even vampires at all?


Autumn was a vanilla villager.

[hoopsguy]

Drat. Really thought with him disappearing at the deadline today, not giving a nuanced trust list, that he was a vamp resigned to fate.

Guess just a villager resigned to fate.

[Darth Vilus]

Son of a bitch, not again

[J23]

Let's hope for a BG block tonight I guess. I think we're looking awfully screwed though.

[EagleFan]

You wake in the morning. Things have not ben going well for you, can it get any worse?

You all gather to try to figure out what to do next. Who do we look at? Who do we trust?

Then you notice....

Everyone is still there. All those remaining survived the night.

Maybe your luck is changing.

[EagleFan]

Day Four has Begun!

[hoopsguy]

Well, guess we wait for Danny to show up.

If there were 3 wolves to start, and they hit Michael (if in game) we would be done. So we'll learn something from Danny's post, no matter what the content.

[Darth Vilus]

Ah finally, something went right!

[Darth Vilus]

Ah shit that's right, I forgot about the convert. Better not rejoice prematurely

[Autumn]

Good luck village. You'll need it.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

As of post 105:

Chief Rum 3 - Autumn (66), Raiers Army (74) Passacaglia (79)
Passacaglia 5 - saldana (72), Danny (81), DaddyTorgo (90), Lathum (98), RendeR (100)
Danny 2 - Darth Vilus (64), J23 (75)
Raiders Army 1 - Chief Rum (85)

Yet to vote: The Jackal, hoopsguy

All Chief Rum voters are now out of the game.

Two of the Pass voters remain in doubt - Saldana + DT. I'm considered Danny cleared as an unchallenged bodyguard now.

Both Danny voters are still in play.

RA voter (Chief Rum) around, as are both non-voters.

The fact that no wolves voted for Chief Rum, when he was in that horse race, seems compelling enough for me.

I guess this is subject to change, but probably only if Danny can somehow identify a wolf based on his block.

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[saldana]

expanding out of your logic then hoops, i would put J23 right after Chief...the wolves knew that Danny was a villager, so with chief already carrying 2 votes, at post 74, he came right back and re-tied it in post 75 with a vote on danny.

a string of villagers then came out and voted Pass and let J23 and chief sit out on the edge with their votes spread out and guaranteed to not draw attention for a couple days.

just my thought.

vote chief rum

[hoopsguy]

Anyone happen to know who was around at the deadline on Day 1?

Going from memory, the late votes on Passacaglia seem to have come from villagers. So if Chief was a wolf, the other wolves would have wanted to be around to try and help him even if they didn't have to do it because the villagers took care of it for them.