WW CXXXIX - The Red Death II - GAME OVER, SERVANTS WIN

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Dola

That's for converting me in Chubby's game

I knew it would come back to haunt me. But as an 8th candidate now or whatever. Now THAT is interesting, Jackal.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I KNEW IT! It was YOU that killed me. GRRRRR

May have been an item. May have been a power. Ultimately I pulled the trigger. I never anticipated the blood bath that followed.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

unvote lathum
vote dubb

Sling'n it till it sticks?

[Chief Rum]

It looks like we're starting to see our consolidation. bhlloy remains in the lead. If my pet theory has any creedence to it, bhlloy is a villager, and the other candidates contain a wolf, probably one of those still in the hunt. Right now, that seems to be mauboy1 and J23. J23's vote on bhlloy makes sense for his own self-preservation. mauboy1 switching to dubb? Not so much.

VOTE mauboy1

[dzilla77]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Perhaps. I would think he's just normally a Sheriff in Arkansas, and he's only in Missouri now because he's at this Lightbringer conference. That doesn't mean he doesn't have the powers or abilities he would normally have. What he is in Arkansas or here doesn't matter anyway--we know what abilities he has in the here and the now.

I was sure he was there to deliver Mizzou's invitation to the SEC.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Perhaps. I would think he's just normally a Sheriff in Arkansas, and he's only in Missouri now because he's at this Lightbringer conference. That doesn't mean he doesn't have the powers or abilities he would normally have. What he is in Arkansas or here doesn't matter anyway--we know what abilities he has in the here and the now.

Well I was sherriff last time and it was like Bodyguard and I think started with a colt but i don't remember what a colt did. Things might be altered in roles for balance as well. In fact I would most assuredly think many roles ARE different than before (however slightly)

[dzilla77]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

for those who haven't notices the Sheriff has no jurisdiction here as he's from Arkansas and we're in Missouri (Yes, I'm sure it's just a typo, but thought it was funny :shrugs: as I was rereading the rules/roles)

Yeah, but he does have a gun, so that gives him jurisdiction regardless of his location.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Well I was sherriff last time and it was like Bodyguard and I think started with a colt but i don't remember what a colt did. Things might be altered in roles for balance as well. In fact I would most assuredly think many roles ARE different than before (however slightly)

Yeah, I am accepting the sheriff role on the face value of what is described in the ruleset. I am just noting that the jurisdiction issue is iirelevant because the ruleset establishes what his powers are in this game in Missouri, regardless of what they would be in Arkansas.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by dubb93

May have been an item. May have been a power. Ultimately I pulled the trigger. I never anticipated the blood bath that followed.

It was a few hours from lynchtime I think so I didn't expect to die but I just happened to be leading votegetter at the time.

Talking about wolf-strategy... DOes it make sense to use a one-time ability like that on villager-villager, or actually use it to save a wolf who is number two of three?

I could see risks either way. First case it would kinda waste the ability when it isn't needed but it would surely cause confusion.

Second case it would possibly put a target on your co-wolf's back, but if they are in a mix of 2nd/3rd candidates, it is often possible to have that fact ignored and squeak by in later days because of other attention.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yeah, I am accepting the sheriff role on the face value of what is described in the ruleset. I am just noting that the jurisdiction issue is iirelevant because the ruleset establishes what his powers are in this game in Missouri, regardless of what they would be in Arkansas.

Thinking about this from a flavor-text AND gameplay angle. If I put in a line like that, it would be to say that he has no power to just go up and arrest someone that he thinks is bad and thus has to follow the rules of this town like everyone else. But since he IS a man of the law and skilled at shootin' and fightin' and swearin', he takes it upon himself to defend and protect people (thus the bodyguard aspect).

[CrimsonFox]

Updating SnDvLs chart

vote update

dubb - Thomkal (83),Bholly (125) mauboy (250)
ntn - dzilla77 (84), Grammatica (236)
mauboy - hoops (129) CrimsonFox (233) Chief Rum (254)
J23 - Autumn (116), Zinto (178) SnDvls (225) saldana (242)
Danny - EagleFan (117), Lathum (142)
Bhlloy - Commo Soldier (127), The Jackal (199), J23 (212), mckerney (222), ntndeacon (248) dubb (249)
Lathum - Narcizo (167)
Crimson Fox - MrBug (244)

Yet to vote: Danny, Raiders Army


Voted then unvoted

MrBug - Narcizo (101)
The Jackal - Narcizo (154)
Dubb - saldana (171)
Danny - The Jackal (199)
The Jackal - SnDvls (213)
mauboy - ntndeacon (248)
Lathum - dubb (249)
Lathum - mauboy (250)

[CrimsonFox]

I really feel quite good about CHief being a villager and think like 60% that dubb is also a villager.

[mauchow]

I just read dubbs move as completely wolfy sounding.

[CrimsonFox]

I disagree. I don't think a wolf would turn a runaway 5 into a runaway 6.
He would just leave things be instead.

That said I don't know WHY an uberrunaway on bhlloy is that important. I don't read anything into people throwing out a second vote at all these days, even if you are the first. I really doubt a wolf would do that.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I disagree. I don't think a wolf would turn a runaway 5 into a runaway 6.
He would just leave things be instead.

That said I don't know WHY an uberrunaway on bhlloy is that important. I don't read anything into people throwing out a second vote at all these days, even if you are the first. I really doubt a wolf would do that.

The move itself doesn't look like a wolf - but everything about the post itself just says "wolf" to me. Just the way I read it, that's all.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I disagree. I don't think a wolf would turn a runaway 5 into a runaway 6.
He would just leave things be instead.

That said I don't know WHY an uberrunaway on bhlloy is that important. I don't read anything into people throwing out a second vote at all these days, even if you are the first. I really doubt a wolf would do that.

6-4-3-3 is a runaway vote?

[CrimsonFox]

bhlloy frequently being gone during many middays and therefore not able to change his vote to a "save himself" vote yet (or maybe not ever) also makes me think bhlloy is a probably a villager.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I disagree. I don't think a wolf would turn a runaway 5 into a runaway 6.
He would just leave things be instead.

That said I don't know WHY an uberrunaway on bhlloy is that important. I don't read anything into people throwing out a second vote at all these days, even if you are the first. I really doubt a wolf would do that.

I think Jackal's point was that putting Danny into the mix bhlloy almost immediately voted for Dubb, leading Jackal to think it might have been a defensive vote? Others jumped on it 'cause, hey, why not, and probably because they figured it might get more traction than a Danny or Dubb vote if they are wolves.

[CrimsonFox]

hmmm yeah not runaway anymore, I thought others didn't have more than 3 at this point.

[dzilla77]

Originally Posted by Autumn

6-4-3-3 is a runaway vote?

Yeah, I'm not really seeing a runaway either. I am also not seeing anything in today's posts that indicate anyone is a wolf or for that matter a villager.

The problem with (probably) so few wolves on D1 is that it is unlikely that we would hit one to begin with and the wolves would be unable to influence the voting one way or another.

[The Jackal]

I definitely don't like how many people jumped on my reasoning, but at least it made for some interesting movement.

[mauchow]

Well, I'm out til about a half hour before deadline.

Don't vote for me!

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think Jackal's point was that putting Danny into the mix bhlloy almost immediately voted for Dubb, leading Jackal to think it might have been a defensive vote? Others jumped on it 'cause, hey, why not, and probably because they figured it might get more traction than a Danny or Dubb vote if they are wolves.

Yeah I believe Jackal does think that way. First day I never know. THere's frequently people voting at the same time/not reading all the posts and votes when they vote. Granted he knew dubb had a vote. Did he know about the Danny vote. I really doubt a wolf would up to a second vote immediately after their cohort was voted once.

So if we believe jackal's theory then bhlloy and Danny are both wolves then. I don't think that.

[Autumn]

I essentially agree with dzilla that we'll probably only see noise today, no signal. Twenty four voters, and we know a smaller than number amount of wolves, whatever that is. And I think there's a very good chance some of them can't talk to each other (was that the case last Red Death game?). So pretty unlikely we'll catch the wolves at anything today. But you never know. I think Jackal's idea was a pretty smart one, sometimes you catch somebody with stuff like that.

[bhlloy]

I started a new job today which really sucks, but I'll come out and reveal on day 1 I guess. I'm the keeper of the flame, probably won't get on again until well after deadline.

Self preservation

unvote dubb
vote Mauboy

[bhlloy]

doh, reading again Mau and Dubb were tied anyway. Gotta run.

[Autumn]

Well, that's a role that he should be able to demonstrate, so a pretty safe reveal to believe.

[CrimsonFox]

bhlloy j23 has more votes than either. I didn't see that either actually as all of his voters have short names.

[Autumn]

For those just tuning in:

Dubb - thomkal, mauboy
NTN - dzilla, grammaticus
Mauboy - hoops, CF, chief rum, bhlloy
MrBug -
J23 - autumn, zinto, sndvls, saldana
Danny - EF, Lathum
Bhlloy - commo, jackal, J23, mckerney, ntndeacon, dubb
Jackal -
Lathum - narc
crimson fox - mrbug

[CrimsonFox]

okay 6-4-4-2 now

[The Jackal]

unvote bhlloy

[The Jackal]

Sorry for suggesting a theory which led to a run on you and forced you to reveal, bud.

[The Jackal]

Well, mau said he'd be back a half hour before deadline, so if he has a role he'll have time to reveal.

VOTE MAU

[Danny]

I believe bhlloy. Good reveal as well, especially since you're not a crucial role.

[Danny]

My guess is the two or three (seems like that is the general consensus) are under the radar at this point.

[CrimsonFox]

EF is here. Good. He's the person I most want to hear from now. I miss him.

[EagleFan]

unvote Danny

vote mau

[Autumn]

Why is everybody going Mauboy? What is the rationale there?

[EagleFan]

Hi CF.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Why is everybody going Mauboy? What is the rationale there?

For me the only reason was the other current option already revealed a role.

[EagleFan]

Still trying to catch up (and have more ELB stuff to take care of) but will be here for a little while (will comment on anything that jumps out at me).

[Abe Sargent]

As a reminder, Day One ends AT 10:00, not at 10:01. Any vote or change at 10:00 does not count.

[Autumn]

Perhaps of interest, of note at least, that three people have gone with Mauboy rather than J23, when it was 6-4 bhlloy/J23.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Why is everybody going Mauboy? What is the rationale there?

Honestly I don't have a reason other than seeing what shakes out

[Danny]

I don't think Mau is a wolf

[The Jackal]

unvote mau
vote j23

[Danny]

Vote ntn

[The Jackal]

About to do a fantasy hockey draft and then watch house, will be in and out

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

As a reminder, Day One ends AT 10:00, not at 10:01. Any vote or change at 10:00 does not count.

BIg thanks for this reminder. Very important!

[Danny]

Oh and I am fine with a J23 vote, but I am looking to manipulate the candidates here hopefully into J23 and Ntn