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11-01-2015, 06:51 AM
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#251 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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Code:
We are getting balanced scoring this year, and I like the way we have been able to rebound the ball. Quiles has been a monster on the board this year, but if Allen Storer doesn't start to play better basketball we aren't going to do much this year. Code:
Honestly, he is a guy I hate in game. There isn't much to do with him. He is average at best scoring, cant really play D the way that you would like. Is athletic and should be able to hold onto the ball. But that's about all the positives I can say. He is at a -2 on the year as our starting 2.... Just sad if you ask me. I just don't know what his role is on this team, nor do I know what his role going forward will be. Nelson comes back as a starter this game, and I have bumped Hernando Hernnandez back into the starting SF spot, so Storer will be the 6th man for a bit or until we get Nincent Lincoln healthy |
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11-03-2015, 03:27 PM
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#252 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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I was going to take some time to write more last night, however, the GF has grades due, and her computer wouldn't connect to my WIFI. Needless to say I lost the battle for the good computer .
USC went on a 3 game winning streak with Nelson back in the lineup. We beat Georgetown, St. Mary's (who has historically been a problem for us) and then Northwestern. We barely beat Northwestern by 2. Going 10-24 from the free throw line, had something to do with why the game was so darn close but a win is a win though and we will take it. Going into tonights sim we are 7-2 and off to our best start ever at USC. Vincent Lincoln comes back after fracturing his hip and is currently listed at 92% health wise. We have 4 days until our next game, so he should be good to go. I have moved him up the depth chart to be our 6th man and will replace Allen Storer. Storer over the past 3 games was ok. He played a great game against G-town, played a terrible game against St. Mary's, and then an ok game against Northwestern. I need more from him, and Lincoln gets a shot to take his spot away from him. Really hoping he does the job, and I can put to bed our issues with playing time and who plays where. |
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11-03-2015, 03:27 PM
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#253 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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We look ok so far
Team Prestige: 57 Season Record: 7-2 Record Vs 1-50: 3-1 Record Vs 51-100: 3-1 Record Vs 100-200: 1-0 Record Vs 200+: 0-0 Current RPI Rank: 15 Our RPI at 15 has me pretty darn excited about where I want to be headed. Just need to keep our injuries at bay Last edited by muns : 11-03-2015 at 03:30 PM. |
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11-03-2015, 03:34 PM
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#254 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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PF J.C. Quiles leads the Nation in rebounding at 13.0 a game and
PG- Freddie Nation leads the Nation in Assists with 9.3 a game. We have some talented guys, just need everybody to show up and playing like they can in order for us to have a shot at the PCC and the national tourney. |
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11-03-2015, 03:53 PM
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#255 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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Recruiting wise we only have 1 offer out because we only had 1 to give out.
We started on the number 1 recruit in the nation, and due to his grade issues, we had to drop off him. We do lead on 5 star All-American 6'3 SG Jospeh Thomasson. He is ranked 20th and can light up the scoreboard, but we expect him to be a turnover machine. However, another top 25 recruit (if he signs) on the roster would be welcomed, as Washington seems to just be killing it on the recruiting trail once again this year. After Washington, CAL, Stanford, and Oregon also seem to be doing really really well on the recruiting front. The PCC doesn't get any easier, although with the realignment next year, the schedule will, as the loss of Oregon State sucks. I also want to point out that little ole Idaho is 6-1 on the year. What a nice job they have been doing recruiting wise. While they wont have the talent to compete within the PCC, it wouldn't surprise me if they snag a win or 2 and disrupt some teams shot. 5'11 SG-Charles Witten is no joke on that roster averaging 19.3 points per game. The little firecracker is the early front runner to win Freshman of the year in the PCC |
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11-04-2015, 11:27 AM
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#256 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Seattle
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Quote:
I like the guard I got, but I'm counting on him being better than my scouting report because that says he's more "OK" than "great". And if I don't get Gonzales I'll be scrambling a bit to fill out this class. I'm hoping for a few more high-level prospects out of the PNW next season - after having 3 in-state guys in the top-100 for the 1955 class, the 1956 class was almost barren. I think the highest-rated Washington prospect was a 2-star. |
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11-04-2015, 11:42 AM
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#257 |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Las Vegas
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What's the crying about a recruiting class. Oregon State has had theirs locked up since April! (still can't believe I forgot).
Oregon State seems like a fraud built on defense right now. I still haven't figured out what offense to run with them. 1st in FT% and blocks in the conference has me thinking we will finally scare someone in conference play this year. 7th in scoring and 9th in FG% makes me think we finish a disappointing .500 in conference play. |
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11-04-2015, 12:16 PM
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#258 | |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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Quote:
Ill disagree, and that's only because I think I have a decent scout, and from memory they wouldn't have been guys I would have gone after. Ill double check that when I get home though. You on the other hand...... I like your guys  |
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11-04-2015, 12:16 PM
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#259 | |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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Quote:
That was just due to schooly balance correct? |
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11-04-2015, 12:24 PM
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#260 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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USC goes 2-0 that sim beating BYU and San Jose State. Neither are world beaters, but aren't exactly cup cakes either.
Our RPI sits at 19th, we are ranked 20th in the polls, and our record sits at 9-2. More importantly at the moment, we are 6-0 vs top 50 schools. Hopefully that number stays high. We get Idaho State, and Niagara next and neither are guaranteed wins. Idaho State has beaten Georgia Tech, Arizona State, and UCLA. They also lost to Cal by 7 points on the road. They make me nervous. Niagara doesn't have the wins yet, but are a real scrappy team coming off an NIT berth last year. They are 4-7 on the year but their RPI is 47th. After that game we start conf play with UCLA and Washington. Honestly, somehow I seem to get screwed each year by who we start off with. Both games are away, and coming back with an 0-2 record to start conf play would be terrible for us. It could be a possibility though with UCLA being ranked 15th and Washington ranked 3rd. |
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11-04-2015, 12:29 PM
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#261 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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On the bright side, we did get healthy and we have a full squad again.
The lineup change with Vincent Lincoln worked nicely, and I am going to stay with that. Just now need to figure out to distribute the mins better. Lincoln in those 2 games went for 18 points on 7-13 shooting, with 5 boards, 1 steals, 2 blocks, and 2 assists. I cant complain about that stat line at all. Very happy with how he is turning out. While I might have better guards as far as recruiting rankings coming in, he is showing me he isn't going to be buried on the depth chart at all. |
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11-04-2015, 12:43 PM
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#262 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Seattle
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Quote:
Foster is a stud - terrific defensive player, shot-blocker and rebounder. His offense is more average, and he's a bit foul-prone, but overall he's the kind of defense and rebounding anchor I like to have in at least one of my starting posts. |
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11-04-2015, 02:46 PM
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#263 | |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Las Vegas
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Quote:
Yeah but also stupidity on my part. I swore it was St. Joseph's who had this so I didn't fire the coaches to spend all the money on coaches. Then I made the late switch to Princeton and got the school to do this with confused. |
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11-06-2015, 02:06 PM
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#264 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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USC goes 2-0 as we pass the Idaho State and Niagara tests. No blowouts as they are quality teams, but wins are wins, we will take em while we can.
They puts us at 11-2 on the season with an RPI of 16. Now starts the dreaded PCC Play. We start with #22 UCLA at UCLA and follow that game up with none other than the #4 Washington at Washington. Not ideal at all, but we are gonna find out real quick if this team can hold its own in PCC play. We continue to be one of the top shooting teams in the country that shoots a 49% clip. We are tops in the PCC with that stat and 10th in the country. I should prob slow the game pace way down in all honesty, but I want to see how we do against the first few teams of PCC play. That might be coming soon though. SG- Vincent Lincoln continues his good play for me off the bench and in fact in both past games averaged around 15 mins compared to Allen Storers 4. I think I have solved my bench issue, but well see how that fares in conf play. We still foul way to much, and PG- Freddie Nation turns the ball over too much for me, but I cant really complain. If Edmond Nelson doesn't go down in that first game I wonder if we would be undefeated right now. We haven't lost since his return, and that includes wins over #12 Seattle and #23 Georgetown during that stretch. |
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11-06-2015, 02:32 PM
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#265 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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We are disappointed that 5 star All-American 6'3 SG Jospeh Thomasson didn't commit last sim, but we still lead on him, and expect him to commit this month. We need to land a good one to try and keep up with the rest of the PCC and freaking San Francisco (God Damn Vaugh Griffis)
Not sure what to expect against UCLA and Washington In the UCLA game they have the advantage rebounding, and exploiting a SF match up that favors them tremendously. We hope to counter that with the best rebounder in the nation with JC Quiles, who we hope will put a dent in their rebounding advantage, and then our PG match up. 6'4 Freddie Nation vs. 5'10 Michael Hoffman seems like favorable matchup to us. UCLA has the edge though as they are at home. In the Washington game, I don't think we stack up well against them either. Nelson will have trouble guarding SG-Italo Malocco and Dante Douglas will have trouble with their stud C- Francis Calhoun. I think Fenton also gives Freddie Nation some trouble holding on to the ball all in which gives them a pretty nice advantage. I think the only way we stay in this game is if we don't turn the ball over, and can somehow have our guards grab some offensive rebounds for extra shots. While Washington is great on the boards, our guards should be able to challenge them in that area. It's a stretch but that's the only way I see us staying in the game. Either way it should be a fun slate of games, and I am praying that we don't start off the PCC 0-2. I would happily take a 1-1 start and call that a win for our program |
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11-06-2015, 03:10 PM
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#266 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Seattle
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Here's a quick look at recruiting on the west coast with January results in the books - below are teams that currently have top-100 recruits committed:
Code:
I expect USC and UCLA will enter this list too in the next couple of months. Cal is doing well as usual. Oregon and Stanford are reloading very nicely. Very impressive to see what San Francisco pulled, and watch out for Saint Mary's - they are picking up a very strong class too. Colorado continues to solidify themselves in the Big 7. And look at lowly Pepperdine sneaking a top-100 guy - looks like the conference prestige of the WCC is paying off for them... |
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11-06-2015, 04:29 PM
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#267 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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The National Basketball Report: December 29, 1956
NBR Top Twenty 1. Kansas State (9-1, LW 3) 2. North Carolina State (8-2, 4) 3. North Carolina (7-2, 5) 4. Washington (10-1, 6) 5. Indiana (10-1, 7) 6. Kentucky (8-2, 1) 7. Seattle (13-2, 2) 8. Kansas (9-3, 10) 9. California (6-2, 11) 10. Dayton (10-2, 8) 11. Bradley (8-2, 11) 12. West Virginia (9-2, 13) 13. Duquesne (12-4, 12) 14. Iowa (6-2, 16) 15. Duke (7-2, 17) 16. Arkansas (8-3, 19) 17. Syracuse (13-0, 20) 18. Oregon State (8-2, NR) 19. Oklahoma A&M (7-1, 15) 20. Holy Cross (7-1, NR) Dropped Out: San Francisco (15), Clemson (18) With the advent of the new year just two days away, here are a bunch of thoughts about the present, as well as the future: - Syracuse continues to work up wins, moving to 13-0. They have just one more game left on their massive six-game road trip, with a trip to Miami-Ohio. After that, St. Francis (PA) waits, before #12 West Virginia comes to town. This will be Syracuse's waterloo, we believe. If Syracuse were to win that game, they can afford two or three losses and get into the NCAA Tournament. If they were to fall against West Virginia, especially in a blowout, they would have to run clean the rest of the way. At least, this is our opinion. It does come with some thought and precedent, however. They're ranked seventh in the poll, in a year where the Absolutely Preposterous posters are launching teams all over the place. We hate to trumpet our own horn, but again, if you want a poll that is more grounded in reality, consider our Top Twenty. Syracuse has a RPI of #68, and play as an Independent. The difficulty in attaining an at-large bid with a RPI rank that low is extremely high. They do possess the nation's top defense, which is commendable. We will see how that looks when the Mountaineers, with their #2 offense and top point guard in the nation, John Hildebrand, come calling. - Kentucky hit a major point of contention in their season's quest for a top seed with a 61-60 loss at 4-7 Niagara. Out of Niagara's losses, only one or two can be considered poor; the Purple Eagles are a veteran group, led by a four-year star point guard in Curt To. They are no slouch, and have played San Francisco, Syracuse, Virginia Tech and George Washington close. Losing to them, for most teams, is more of a matter of X's and O's than about stature. Not Kentucky, though. They are a top-five team, and one of the few who can feel a realistic shot at a top seed. Looking at other top-seed candidates... Kansas: Losses to Kentucky, West Virginia, and Holy Cross Kansas State: Loss to Kentucky North Carolina: Losses at Oklahoma City and at Oregon NC State: Losses to Bradley and at Kansas Indiana: Loss to Duquesne California: Losses to Seattle and San Francisco Washington: Loss at NC State You get the idea. This is, far and away, the worst loss for a potential #1 seed. This could be what slides Kentucky to a #2. The season is young, of course...conference play has yet to start. Looking directly at that loss, Kentucky shot just 34% from the field. Stephen Wiliford, the team's leading scorer, shot 5-16. Curt Davis was 5-14. Dougie Cobbs was 3-14. It was a narrow, one-point loss, but this also speaks to Kentucky's other problem: their offense. Specifically, we mean their shooting. They're 11th in the nation in total offense, but 52nd in field goal percentage. They win their games, generally speaking, through offensive rebounding (7th in the nation) and free throw shooting (9th in the nation). If you meet a disciplined team, and Niagara only commited eleven fouls in the game, Kentucky's main offense is neutralized. Kentucky held a 51-35 edge in rebounding, but Niagara played smart, disciplined basketball, and many of Kentucky's chances off those putbacks went astray. The Purple Eagles laid down the blueprint on how to defeat Kentucky, especially if you're generally undermanned. It will be up to the SEC to take what Niagara did and improve upon it. For the Wildcats, this could spell major trouble...if they don't make any adjustments. - Michael Asche set a NCAA record with nine steals, in Marshall's 83-77 win over St. Joe's. The previou record, eight, was held by many players. Ashe has always been a solid man on defense, swiping 1.4 balls a year ago, and 2.5 steals averaged this year, but this nine is probably a one-time deal. "I kept cutting passing lines," said Asche after the game. "We had their offense scouted well, and they kept trying to go backdoor. I was able to recognize it and come from the other side. And they kept doing it." - Stephen Ferrari may have had the performance that puts him on the landscape of the professional ranks. In San Francisco's 92-75 win over California yesterday, Ferrari scored twelve points, but registered FIFTEEN assists. That fifteen is one off the national record, set twice in 1955. "Guys were open," said Ferrari (14.6 ppg, 8.7 apg, 2.8 rpg, 1.5 spg) after the game. In the win, San Francisco did more than just damage Cal. They may have asserted themselves as the #2 team in the West, behind Washington. Seattle is probably #3. That is big, because one of those teams may get shipped to the Midwest. Of course, they'll have to make a go without Ronnie Veasey, who will be out another four weeks. "We have a talented team," said Ferrari. We know what we are capable of, and we know what can happen when we play to our potential. Washington beat us, but I know, if we played them again, there would be a different result." The Dons (10-3) got 23 off Jared Stewart's 11-16 night. Cal, which is plagued by its frontcourt play, were accosted by San Francisco's 32 assists. That is just three off the national record, set by Utah back on February 1, 1954. The Bears, meanwhile, continue to get next-to-nothing from their post guys. Willie Leagult, the team's center, is averaging just 4.9 points and 4.8 rebounds a game. Power forward Craig Kruger is not faring much better, going for 4.4 points and 7.9 boards a game. "It is no secret that our big guys have to be more assertive," said Cal coach Ron Roberson. "Our guard play has been fantastic, but we need more balance. Otherwise, teams will be able to focus on just half of our team. This won't help us in the long run." - Holy Cross gained respect with a victory over former top-five Kansas, walking into Kansas Fieldhouse and leaving with a 76-64 victory. "That was a whooping," said Kansas coach, Dave Keene. "Those boys came in here to knock our heads off, and that they did." The Crusaders held a 45-26 halftime lead, and held the Jayhawks to 41% shooting, and limited the damage to Luis Horne's 30. The Automorahn scored just four points. Charles Tillery scored 21 for the Crusaders, who now sit 7-1 on the season. Their lone loss is to Duke. The season, however, is about to take form for the Crusaders. Their upcoming schedule: 12.30: at California 1.2: at NC State 1.4: at Bradley Shortly after that, they travel to Kentucky and Iowa. It is likely that the team will not roll through all five games. If they were, they'd warrant serious consideration for the top seed in the East. All of this from a team that is greater than the sum of their parts. Tillery is the true star of the team; the junior from the Connecticut shoreline is averaging a stout 17.6 points and 8.1 rebounds a game. Pierre Baltazar is adding defensive might, but this team is in disrepair. Carl Moeller, the sophmore starting center, is out for the year. Guards Robin Snelling and Carl Kelley, both double-digit scorers on average, are both nursing injuries. "Chuck has been the shoulders of this team," said Kelley. "We have gotten hurt and relied on him to lead the way. He is the leader of this team, and a big reason why we are off to the start we are on. He sets the tone." - As of this writing, there are five players averaging a double-double: JC Quiles, Southern Cal PF: 12.2 ppg, 13.0 rpg Angelo Davis, Villanova C: 11.0 ppg, 1.9 rpg Abraham Powell, Iowa State C: 13.8 ppg, 11.5 rpg Joe Lundberg, PF: 10.4 ppg, 10.6 rpg Brady Poe, Siena PF: 11.6 ppg, 10.3 rpg Elijah Davis, who took over the career scoring record from Maryland's Elijah Dawkins earlier this season, is at 1843. He is the nation's scoring leader, at 23.3 ppg. He should be the first, and only, player at 2,000 points by this season's conclusion. Alvin McKissick, of Syracuse, is five rebounds away from being the first player with a thousand in his career. Brady Poe, who sits fourth all-time, is at 956. Marcos Godfrey will forever be in the discussion of greatest point guard of all-time. The former Indiana lead had 734 assists in his three years in Bloomington. Second is Ferrari of San Francisco, with 644. West Virginia's John Hildebrand has 619, and Andrew Cosme of St. Joe's has 612. What Godfrey did in his three years is incredible, though dreadfully overlooked. The same can be said for Navy graduate, Jason McKnight. The former big man swatted away 293 in his storied career. The best active number is Wisconsin's Freddie Yan, who has 246. He has started 100 games in his career, and has seen his block numbers jump from 2.8 a game last year, to 5.1 this year. His rate is likely unsustainable, so it remains to be seen if the 6'11 center can get enough to set the national record. Chauncey HInkley is one away from setting the dubious turnovers record. He has 370; Ohio State's Dirk Adams sits at 371. Yes, Dirk Adams is about to turn over his crown. - Lastly, here are a few of the games we're looking forward to seeing the most coming up: 12.29: Notre Dame at St. Joe. The Irish are, once again, America's Greatest Disappointment. Can they beat the Hawks in Philadelphia? And if they continue to slide, is Joe Dawkins' job in jeopardy? 12.29: Oklahoma A&M at St. Mary's. This will be a difficult trip for the Cowboys. Two of the Gaels' three losses are at Southern Cal and UCLA. And Denver has a winning record. This is no gimmie trip for A&M. 12.30: Iowa at Kansas. A distinct style clash, as Iowa's rough-and-tumble matches up with Kansas' flash-and-dash. Can the Automorahn and the guards secure victory? This has "signature win" all over it for Iowa, if they can produce a rather mild upset? 12.30: Holy Cross at California. Now we begin to find out if the Crusaders are for real. 12.30: Duquesne at Duke. The Dukes can ill-afford many more losses. A good showing at Duke will only go so far, especially if the Blue Devils fall off in conference play, like last season. 12.30: George Washington at Pittsburgh. A few weeks ago, the Colonials were 4-0 and ranked. The Panthers were the same. Now, GW is 5-6, Pitt is 6-6. How quickly the mighty tumble... 12.31: Michigan State at St. John's. Both of these teams need this win...Michigan State for at-large consideration, St. John's for seeding (come on, they're going to roll in the Metro). 12.31: Maryland at La Salle. This game can disrupt someone's season. 1.2: Holy Cross at NC State. Another big game for the Crusaders. This one has relevance to the Wolfpack, too. 1.4: West Virginia at Villanova. This is a big test for the Mountaineers. The Wildcats do not turn over for anyone, especially in Philadelphia. Don't expect a win for West Virginia. 1.4: Holy Cross at Bradley. The tour continues. 1.5: Iowa at NC State. Neither program has shied away from heavyweights, have them? 1.5: Oregon State at Loyola U of LA: Do not be surprised if the Lions give Oregon State a tougher game than they expect. Despite a couple blowout losses to Ohio State and Cal, this isn't a bad team. In fact, they've won three of four since the starting 0-4. The Bottom Five Ranking the worst of the worst... To end our piece, we wanted to give a nod to what we believe are the five worst teams in the nation. This may become a regular thing. It depends on how bad it is. 5. Northwestern (1-7). Among the league worst in total offense, total defense, and a host of other categories. 161st out of 171 in point differential. The Wildcats were 23-9 three years ago; now, they are 1-7 and heading into a better Big Ten than they've seen. To their credit, they've only faced one bad team so far, and beat that team, Loyola-Illinois, 74-50. 4. Hardin-Simmons (1-11). They inexplicably beat an even Houston team in Houston, 50-41. The Cowboys are not exactly riding high, averaging just 56.7 points a game (152nd) and giving up 68.6 (137th). They are 164th in opposing field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 50.3%. 3. George Washington (5-6). Want to know how far they've fallen after a 4-0 start? They just earned Colgate their first win, 72-64. At home. 2. Pennsylvania (1-10). They have the second-worst defense in the country, giving up nearly 77 points a game. They rank near the bottom in almost every defensive category. They're lone win, amazingly, came against 5-8 Temple. It has been drastically downhill since...except their rematch with Temple. That was a 66-65 narrow Temple escape. They also almost knocked off St. Joe, succumbing 64-61. Perhaps they are turning the corner. 1. Western Michigan (1-9). The Broncos are ranked 104th in total offense, 166th in total defense, and in the bottom quartile in most categories. They're best stat is that they are 79th, with 13.8 assists a game. Their lone win came against considerable disappointment Tennessee Tech, two days ago. NBR NCAA Tournament Projection 1 Indiana NC State 1 8 Connecticut W. Kentucky 8 5 Syracuse Arkansas 5 4 Duquesne West Virginia 4 East South 3 Bradley Dayton 3 6 Holy Cross Clemson 6 7 Niagara Columbia 7 2 Kansas Kentucky 2 1 Kansas State Washington 1 8 Toledo Texas Western 8 5 Oregon State Oklahoma A&M 5 4 Iowa Duke 4 Midwest West 3 California Seattle 3 6 Southern Methodist Southern Cal 6 7 St. John Utah State 7 2 North Carolina San Francisco 2 |
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11-06-2015, 04:30 PM
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#268 | |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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Quote:
Nice post there. That is some good kids coming into the PCC again. I only have one offer to give this year, so ill eventually only add 1 guy to the list. Not sure how many UCLA has to offer out this year. I was surprised to see them not on the list honestly. I knew Vince was cleaning up the Cali kids though |
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11-06-2015, 04:32 PM
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#269 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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NBR Analytics
Bracketology: First Look -- 2 per home game compared to road, also SOS adjustment(RPI under polls). A point per .01 of SOS over .500? With conference play about to begin, NBR Analytics presents our first assessment of the tournament fields. These may indeed end up being somewhat different than those presented by the general editorial staff, making it useful to briefly comment on our methodology here at the 'nerdery'. Simply put, we are interested only in who has demonstrated themselves to be most deserving to date. Ranking is irrelevant to us, as is school prestige or reputation. This is an assessment of the body of work put forward on the court to date, nothing more and nothing less. As such, this is a projection of the teams that should make the field, not necessarily those who will. The two factors that matter to us are net rating(offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) and strength of schedule. All else is irrelevant noise. A final disclaimer is that we would expect this projection to change a great deal as conference play unfolds. Much of the first of the year is a feeling-out period as teams try to find optimal lineups, rotations, and strategies. The level of competition in conference play is much different than it has been to date for many as well. This is merely how things stand at the moment. NCAA 1 -- Kansas(Big 7), Kansas State, Bradley(MVC), West Virginia(Southern) 2 -- Indiana(Big Ten), North Carolina State(ACC), Oregon(PCC), Kentucky(SEC) 3 -- San Francisco(WCC), Washington, Seattle, Holy Cross 4 -- Virginia, Clemson, Duquesne, Georgia Tech 5 -- Syracuse, Michigan, San Jose State, Saint Mary's 6 -- Utah(MSAC), Dartmouth(Ivy Group), Georgetown, Duke 7 -- North Carolina, St. John's(Metro NY), Southern Methodist(SWC) Toledo(MAC) 8 -- Niagara(WYN3), Arizona State(BIAA), Connecticut(Yankee), Murray State(Ohio Valley) The conferences are listed in parentheses for automatic bids, given to the best team in each conference as league play has not yet begun. Note: you could basically flip a coin between Duke, North Carolina, and Mississippi State for the final at-large spots. They're that close right now. NIT 1 -- Mississippi State, Dayton, California, Ohio State 2 -- Oklahoma A&M, Southern California, Michigan State, Denver 3 -- Santa Clara, Alabama, Colorado, Idaho State 4 -- Maryland, UCLA, Iowa, Saint Joseph's 5 -- Villanova, Arkansas, Iowa State, Citadel 6 -- Stanford, TX Technological Colle, Oklahoma City, Northwestern 7 -- Utah State Agricultural Col, Washington State, Notre Dame, La Salle 8 -- Colorado A&M, Manhattan, Baylor, Columbia We find it rather amazing the degree to which the pollsters find themselves impressed by well-regarded programs recording relatively unimpressive wins against a collection of subpar teams. Many of them will no doubt improve their results as the season progresses, but until they do, putting them in the field assumes facts not in evidence to date. |
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11-06-2015, 04:48 PM
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#270 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Seattle
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Quote:
And don't look now, but Pepperdine - of the 29 prestige - could end up adding Poteat (#66 overall) to their class. Utah also looks set to add Valero (#99 overall) to their haul. Last edited by dawgfan : 11-06-2015 at 04:49 PM. |
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11-06-2015, 05:30 PM
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#271 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Somewhere More Familiar
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It's funny you mention Pepperdine - it's that time of year for Dartmouth to start looking through for anyone that may have slipped through the cracks...and Pepperdine is all over all of them. No one is coaching them, right? I'm impressed with the AI pushing that far out of their depth prestige-wise.
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11-07-2015, 09:09 AM
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#272 | |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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Quote:
So looking through my scout, Oregon- Benoit should be great on D but average everywhere else Orange/ Green Cal- Tyler- should be able to score inside, defend, and rebound on d. average everywhere else. Red/Yellow Davis- has 3 B's in potential. Free throws, O rebounding and post D. Red/Green Foster- on the other hand should be a beats on the board and on D. 3 A's and 2 B's potential. Orange/ Green. My scout isn't great, but I have the best scout combo in the PCC, and Foster would have been the only guy I would have gone after there. We all missed out on Steven Williams from Cali. That guy is going to be a monster for San Fran. I guess that is good news for me, and none of you hyenas landed him but he is gonna be a load for the next 4 years.St. Mary's also looks like they did well from my scout. Not even gonna talk about Vince, as Willie Mays should help him out from the get go next year. Last edited by muns : 11-07-2015 at 09:13 AM. |
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11-10-2015, 04:10 PM
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#273 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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First game was UCLA @ UCLA and let me tell you it was a good game.
We end up losing to them by 3, and it was a tough loss to swallow. We are up 33-29 at the half and end up losing 63-60. Bright side, we lost by 3, shot our lowest percentage of the year at 39% and had the nations leading rebounder foul out after playing only 19 mins. I suspect that if we had PF J.C. Quiles for the whole game, we don't get out-rebounded 41-34 and we don't lose. Giving them 30 free throw attempts didn't help either, but we certainly tip our caps to them as Quiles did foul out and they still won the game. I was happy that we only turned the ball over 11 times (Freddie Nation had 4 of them) and that Edmund Nelson shot 50% while scoring 22 points. Going forward I think when we play them at home it will be a different game. The rematch has already been circled. The second game, and the game I was dreading honestly was @ Washington. If you remember, I thought the only way we had a shot at beating them was if our guards were able to get us offensive rebounds to get us extra shots at the hoop. I was pretty spot on with that part of my thinking (I know surprise, surprise) and we somehow pulled off the Miracle and beat a top 5 team in the country 69-61. We ended up with 13 offensive boards and out rebounded them 38-24. Another good thing for us going forward was that Freshman shooting guard Edmund Nelson only played 14 mins in this game due to fouling out and we still won. He was our leading scorer of the game with 16 points in 14 mins. he can light it up any day of the week. Back ups Vincent Lincoln and Allen Storer, especially Storer stepped up and played well enough to get us the win. I am not sure how to view this win in all honesty. Their star Center Francis Calhoun had a terrible game, and there is no way that is going to happen again. He only had 4 boards and 4 points. Like wise, Nelson fouling out didn't help us. So I don't think we learned anything about Washington from this game, and I am not sure what I learned about ourselves from this game. I will however, say I was happy with our depth, as Washington played everybody and we didn't tire out. Overall, I am pretty pleased and excited about where this team is and where it could be going. Just need to stop fouling as much to make sure our key guys continue to get the mins they should. |
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11-10-2015, 04:13 PM
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#274 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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Up next is a scrappy Stanford team, Idaho and then #18 Oregon.
Not sure how these games will fare, but Oregon scares me the most. Not because they are ranked 18th, but because I don't match up with them athletically at all. They have to be one of the most athletic teams in the country and they are hoping to ride that wave all the way to the tourney. We are currently ranked 13 and our RPI is 2nd best in the country. I like that a lot. We are 7-1 vs the top 50 at the moment and 3-2 vs 51-100. Last edited by muns : 11-10-2015 at 04:14 PM. |
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11-10-2015, 04:15 PM
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#275 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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Bracketology: Pre-Conference Edition
Much is still in flux. Most teams stayed where they were for the most part, but those who had a particularly strong or weak couple of weeks showed it with some considerable swings in their standing. At the top, the twin power in Kansas still rule the nation's basketball scene. At the moment though, the Jayhawks have lost the top overall spot in our rundown to their in-state rivals. It's close though. Behind them there are 3-4 teams in a tight battle for the rest of the #1 seeds. NCAA 1 -- Kansas State(Big 7), Kansas, Bradley(MVC), Indiana(Big Ten) 2 -- West Virginia(Southern), Oregon(PCC), Kentucky(SEC), North Carolina State(ACC) 3 -- Seattle, San Francisco(WCC), Washington, Michigan 4 -- Virginia, California, Dayton, Duke 5 -- Mississippi State, Holy Cross, Duquesne, Southern California 6 -- UCLA, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Southern Methodist(SWC) 7 -- St. John's(Metro NY), Utah(MSAC), Dartmouth(Ivy Group), Texas Western(BIAA) 8 -- Toledo(MAC), Niagara(WYN3), Connecticut(Yankee), Murray State(Ohio Valley) NIT 1 -- Saint Mary's, Ohio State, San Jose State, North Carolina 2 -- Syracuse, Georgetown, Michigan State, Idaho State 3 -- Maryland, Saint Joseph's, Oklahoma A&M, Villanova 4 -- Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, La Salle 5 -- Santa Clara, Iowa State, Colorado A&M, Citadel 6 -- Denver, Notre Dame, Minnesota, Stanford 7 -- Northwestern, Brigham Young, Illinois, Utah State Agricultural C 8 -- Oregon State, Butler, Arizona State, Washington State One of our readers noted that last time around we had 7 of the 9 PCC schools in the post-season. Well, now that's up to 8, though Oregon State and Washington State are only narrowly in. It certainly speaks to the conference's strength as well. The ACC has 6 of 8 in as well. |
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11-10-2015, 04:15 PM
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#276 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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Conference Ratings
Using the same metric as our bracketology, which we've named Adjusted Net Rating -- mostly just because it makes us sound somewhat smarter than we really are -- we present now our outlook on the nation's conferences as league play is set to begin. The teams are listed with their current rating and the projected order of finish. At the end of the year, we'll be able to see how much we really know. Hopefully, without eating too much crow, but only time will tell and this is an unpredictable sport. Just ask a Hoosier fan. ACC(11.71) North Carolina State(+23.8) Virginia(+19) Duke(+17.2) Clemson(+15.6) North Carolina(+12.6) Maryland(+10.9) South Carolina(-1.6) Wake Forest(-3.8) With a full half-dozen legitimate quality teams, particularly with the Cavaliers and Tigers doing surprisingly well, there's little doubt about it: the ACC is the premier conference in America this year. They don't really have a peer right now. PCC(+10.5) Oregon(+26.1) Washington(+19.8) California(+18.2) Southern California(+16) UCLA(+15.8) Stanford(+3.9) Oregon State(+2.3) Washington State(+1.5) Idaho(-9.1) We doubt the selection committee will have the good sense to do it, but the PCC should have five teams in the NCAA field. It's that strong this year, and the only conference even close to rivaling the ACC. Big 7(8.77) Kansas State(+32.7) Kansas(+31.5) Colorado(+7.5) Iowa State(+6.0) Oklahoma(-1.6) Missouri(-5.8) Nebraska(-8.9) The road to the national title still goes through Kansas. Don't forget about Colorado and Iowa State though; both programs are doing a solid job and should not be overlooked. Big Ten(8.49) Indiana(+27.4) Michigan(+19.3) Ohio State(+13.1) Michigan State(+11.7) Iowa(+7.5) Minnesota(+4.0) Northwestern(+3.8) Illinois(+2.9) Purdue(-1.2) Wisconsin(-3.6) The Big Ten started a bit slow this year but has picked up steam recently. Big question marks are whether Michigan is as good as they have appeared against the ninth-toughest schedule in the nation, and whether Illinois has just been bored or whether they are as disappointing as they have looked against an inferior schedule. The last few games were better for the Illini. We'll find out soon. WCC(+4.4) San Francisco(+21.7) Saint Mary's(+13.3) San Jose State(+13.1) Santa Clara(+7.2) Pacific(-5.4) Pepperdine(-8.3) Loyola U of Los Angeles(-10.8) The Dons have more competition than usual, but should reverse last year's surprise by Saint Mary's and take their second crown in three years. The WCC is good, but not nearly among the elite. There's too much drek at the bottom for that. MSAC(2.15) Utah(+8.7) Colorado A&M(+4.8) Denver(+4.6) Brigham Young(+3.1) Utah State Agricultural C(+2.9) Montana(+0.9) Wyoming(-3.5) New Mexico(-4.3) It hasn't been a good last couple of weeks for the MSAC, but for the season they are doing surprisingly well. Most of the conference elected for a challenging schedule, it may be catching up to them a bit but they've held their own and then some for the most part. This could well prove to be one of the more competitive leagues around this season. It will definitely be worth watching. SEC(+1.83) Kentucky(+25) Mississippi State(+16.8) Georgia Tech(+13.5) Vanderbilt(+3.4) Alabama(+1.4) Tulane(-1.4) Georgia(-2) Alabama Polytechnic Insti(-3.0) Tennessee(-3.5) Florida(-5.2) Louisiana State(-7.4) Mississippi(-15.7) It's definitely looking like a down year for the Southeast. Kentucky is outstanding as always, Miss. St. and Georgia Tech should go dancing, but it's a long fall after that. For a team in such a well-regarded league, the Rebels in particular are an absolute dumpster fire, and LSU expected much better things from this season as well. MVC(-0.35) Bradley(+27.9) Oklahoma A&M(+9.4) Municipal U of W(-1.2) Saint Louis(-3.6) Tulsa(-3.7) Drake(-5.9) Mercy Col of Detroit(-12.7) Houston(-13.0) The gap between Bradley and the rest of the MVC is hilariously immense. Oklahoma A&M should find itself somewhere in the post-season as well though. After a strong year last season, we find ourselves wondering what happened to Houston ... Southern(-1.78) West Virginia(+27.1) Citadel(+4.8) VMI(-1.3) Virginia Tech(-1.9) George Washington(-4.9) Davidson(-5.3) Furman(-8.5) Richmond(-11.7) William & Mary(-14.3) Like Bradley in the MVC, this is a one-team conference with West Virginia in control. Independents(-1.79) Seattle(+22.6) Dayton(+18.1) Holy Cross(+16.5) Duquesne(+16.4) Syracuse(+12.5) Georgetown(+12.2) Idaho State(+11.2) Saint Joseph's(+10.5) Villanova(+8.3) La Salle(+7.5) Notre Dame(+4.3) Butler(+1.7) Penn State(+0.8) Oklahoma City(+0.6) Temple(+0.3) Miami(-0.8) Seton Hall(-0.8) Colgate(-1.4) Pittsburgh(-1.9) Louisville(-2.0) TX Techological Colle(-2.2) Rutgers(-3.3) Boston College(-3.9) Iona(-4.3) DePaul(-4.6) Cincinatti(-4.7) Bucknell(-6.4) Siena(-7.2) Marquette(-8.0) Portland(-8.1) Loyola-IL(-8.6) Gonzaga(-9.4) Memphis State(-9.5) Muhlenburg(-9.8) Florida State(-10.8) Loyola-LA(-10.9) Lafayette(-11.4) Saint Francis-PA(-12.7) Army(-13.3) Creighton(-13.8) Xavier(-14.1) Lehigh(-16.4) Navy(-20) As usual, more bad than good but there are a number of quite solid teams here. Seattle has really distinguished themselves as a team that nobody wants a piece of, Syracuse had a great start but has fallen off a bit lately, and Idaho State is quite a surprise, continually improving so far. On the other end of the scale, there's Navy -- our clear choice for the most inept team in the nation. Metro NY(-4.23) St. John's(+11.6) City Col of New York(-3.0) Manhattan(-3.5) St. Francis-NY(-4.0) Brooklyn(-6.4) Fordham(-10.2) New York University(-14.1) St. John's and everyone else -- another predictable year in the Metro. SWC(-5.13) Southern Methodist(+11.7) Arkansas(+7.6) Baylor(-0.7) Texas Christian(-9.9) Agricultural and Mechanic(-13.3) Texas(-14.0) Rice(-18.7) It's looking like an annual tradition to have SMU and Arkansas at the head of the Southwest. We've got the Mustangs to repeat this year. BIAA(-5.5) Texas Western(+4.7) Arizona State(+1.5) West Texas State(-8.4) Arizona(-8.8) Hardin-Simmons(-9.1) New Mexico A&M(-13.2) Not a whole lot to say here really. Looks like a two-horse race for the NCAA bid, otherwhise this is a conference best avoided. WYN3(-5.5) Niagara(+3.9) St. Bonaventure(-5.1) Canisius(-15.3) Niagara's ok, but the rest said about the other two, the better. Ivy Group(-6.16) Dartmouth(+8.2) Cornell(-4.2) Pennsylvania(-5.1) Columbia(-5.7) Harvard(-9.3) Brown(-10.7) Yale(-10.8) Princeton(-11.7) We respectfully disagree with our colleagues who wrote last week that the Ivy is 'incredibly underrated'. At least for this year. Dartmouth is a decent team, but the rest have been very disappointing as a whole. It's cant-watch-TV right now . In some cases it's youth that simply need seasoning; in others, a hodge-podge of talents that just haven't meshed for various reasons despite good coaching in most cases. The depth isn't there to survive injuries either. But whatever the whys may be, our perspective is that the conference has never been weaker than it is this year. Yankee(-6.63) Connecticut(+1.3) New Hampshire(-5.6) Vermont(-7.4) Rhode Island(-7.5) Masschusets(-9.6) U of Maine at Or(-11.0) UConn and the Misfits. Almost sounds like the name of a musical band. In all fairness, most of the rest of the conference is merely bad, not terrible as you would see at a few places around the country. The problem here is mostly that the Huskies are merely decent, and there's just nobody to challenge them. MAC(-6.91) Toledo(+3.9) Bowling Green State(+1.4) Ohio(-7.7) Miami-Ohio(-10.5) Western Michigan(-11.1) Kent State(-11.2) Marshall(-13.2) Even Toledo isn't that great this year, but they still should have enough take the conference. The bottom half of the MAC is truly putrid right now. Ohio Valley(-10.97) Murray State(-2.5) Eastern Kentucky State(-7.5) Morehead State(-11.2) Tennessee Tech(-14.4) Middle Tennessee(-14.5) Western Kentucky(-15.7) Please do yourself a favor and avoid the Ohio Valley this year. If you're bored, go watch the Ocho, sharpen your ginsu knives, or spend some quality time outdoors watching the grass grow. It will be a much better use of your time. It's truly a traveshamockery that somebody from this conference, almost certainly Murray State again, will darken the doors of the NCAA tournament. |
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11-10-2015, 05:08 PM
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#277 | |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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Quote:
As I was looking at this I started noticing a theme for USC- we played a tough ass OOC schedule. In this picture we have beaten/lost Beaten Seattle and Washington on the 3 line Lost to UCLA and Southern Methodist on the 6 line Beat Niagara on the 8 line On the NIT Predictions Beat St. Mary's, and San Jose State on the 1 line Beat Georgetown and Idaho State on the 2 line Beat Northwestern and BYU on the 7 line Lost to Arizona State on the 8 line. No wonder our RPI is 2nd in the country |
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11-10-2015, 05:13 PM
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#278 | |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
I suspect you'll be fine, we might tank your RPI a little though, sorry about that  |
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11-11-2015, 10:00 AM
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#279 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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USC ends up going 3-1 this sim with wins over Stanford, Idaho, and Oregon. However, we fall to Oregon State on the road.
The good- We stayed healthy, and there is a lot to say for that. I figured we would beat Stanford and Idaho, but Oregon was the game that worried me. Honestly, Oregon State would have worried me as well, but I thought we were only playing 3 games this sim and not 4 which is why I never said anything about Oregon State. Beating Oregon was huge as we showed we would play in a track meet winning 88-85. Scoring 88 points was a season high for us. We also showed we will still shoot at a high % in a track meet as we shot 53% in that game. However, the concern is that one of Oregon's best players Center and first team all PCC Kenneth Foster only played 5 mins of the game before going down with an injury. If Foster plays his usual mins, would that have changed the outcomes. My guess is yes, so while I would love to sit here and say we have arrived, I am still not all that confident. Getting this win at their place was huge though, and I'd rather have him play us at home (where we are undefeated on the year) healthy for the next game. Oregon State- It was only a matter of time before they crashed our party. We have been a major thorn to their side of the past few years, when they should have beaten us, so its not a surprise they got up for this and kicked us in the teeth for this one. They shut down our post players as our starting posts only scored a total of 6 points. Dante Douglas didn't score in the darn game at all. They came out firing at the top of their game and it was hard for us to play catch up. They were beating us 50-32 at the half. We needed to do a better job on the defensive side as they shot 49% for the game. That's not getting it done at all. Even with Freshman sensation Edmund Nelson dropping 28 and grabbing 13 boards on them we couldn't hang. Congrats to Mike on his teams win here, they earned that W. Next up is a huge sim for us. California, Washington State, and then UCLA again. |
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11-11-2015, 02:44 PM
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#280 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Seattle
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Quote:
Your post got me thinking about my schedule - here's who we've played from that projection: NCAA projected teams: Beat Oregon, lost to N.C. State (2 seeds) Beat San Francisco and Michigan (3 seeds) Beat Cal (4 seed) Lost to USC (5 seed) Beat Utah (7 seed) Beat Toledo (8 seed) NIT projected teams: Beat Idaho State (2 seed) Beat Colorado (4 seed) Beat Iowa State (5 seed) Beat Stanford (6 seed) Beat Northwestern (7 seed) Beat Washington State (8 seed) |
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11-11-2015, 03:50 PM
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#281 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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I may want to slightly tone down my scheduling next year. NC State opponents:
NCAA: (1) Kansas - loss (1) Bradley - loss (3) Washington - win (4) Virginia - win (4) Duke - loss (5) Holy Cross - win (6) Clemson - loss (6) Georgia Tech - win (8) Toledo - win NIT: (1) North Carolina - loss (2) Idaho State - win (3) Maryland - win (4) Iowa - win (5) Citadel - win (6) Stanford - win (7) BYU - win (7) Illinois - win Remaining on the schedule NCAA (1) Kansas State (4) Duke (4) Virginia (6) Clemson NIT: (1) North Carolina (3) Maryland 5-4 vs NCAA teams, hopefully we can take down the remaining NCAA 1 seed on our schedule. |
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11-11-2015, 10:06 PM
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#282 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Somewhere More Familiar
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Since everyone's doing it, Stanford:
NCAA: (2) NC State (L) (3) Washington (L) (5) Duquesne (W), USC (L) (6) Georgia Tech (L), UCLA (L) NIT: (1) Saint Mary's (L), San Jose State (L) (5) Santa Clara (W) (6) Denver (L) (7) Illinois (W) (8) Oregon State (L), Washington State (L) Yet to come: NCAA: (2) Oregon (twice) (3) Washington (4) California (twice) (5) USC (6) UCLA NIT: (8) Oregon State, Washington State Way too many L's up there for my taste, and unfortunately none of them was particularly close. |
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11-12-2015, 02:02 AM
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#283 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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The thing is, not much point in trying to tone down your schedule IMO if you are in the ACC or PCC. It's murderous no matter how you slice it.
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11-12-2015, 02:21 PM
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#284 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Seattle
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Quote:
But I also like to mix in a few creampuffs early as I work out the kinks and build up the competency of my team's defensive style, and give the schedule a regional feel to it. |
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11-12-2015, 04:44 PM
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#285 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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I make my schedule based on opponent prestige, just to have some kind of system to it. This year I made a couple schedule offers to top human opponents, but other than those I made sure to play a few of the top teams and then just pick through a prestige range to get a good mix of mid to top tier competition, with a few cupcakes mixed in (but only a few). This year it just turned out that most of the mid-tier teams I scheduled appear to be at least NIT caliber.
I was surprised at how many opponents were on that list, but I actually probably won't change anything. I do want to play some top teams every year, and I'm 6-1 against "NIT" projcted teams (really 6-0 or maybe even 7-0, given the fact that UNC will be an NCAA team and Virginia may well fall to the NIT still) and don't really expect that to change much anytime soon given the advantages I had at the start with NC State. I just need a better record vs NCAA competition is all. I continue to worry about how much of that is luck vs sabotaging myself with shitty gameplanning. Last edited by Radii : 11-12-2015 at 04:46 PM. |
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11-12-2015, 04:59 PM
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#286 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Somewhere More Familiar
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Typically when I'm scheduling, I like to arrange a pair of games early that are against super weak competition, at least prestige-wise. Hardin-Simmons, etc. Then I go for a couple against decent mid-major type schools. I try to make the majority of my non-conference games against tough schools at that point, but I usually like to schedule one or two 'easy' games right before conference play starts.
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11-13-2015, 08:08 AM
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#287 | |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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Quote:
I also subscribe to the Radii theory of scheduling. I didn't mean to schedule as hard as I did. I tried to revamp my scheduling this year, but didn't want to pick as many good teams as I eventually did. That just occurred by accident. I thought I had picked middle of the road teams that would give us a decent game, but that we would ultimately win. I was more than surprised (which is why I looked at our schedule) at how many teams seemed to be in the upper tier this year. Next year, I will do the same thing, but hope that it gets turned down a notch. I question, if I would have lost some of those OOC games where USC would be sitting now. |
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11-17-2015, 12:32 PM
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#288 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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I cant wrap my head around this team. All the talent in the world, but they turn it on and off when they feel like it and lose games they shouldn't be losing.
First up was the battle with California. We get serious in the 2nd half and score 42 to their 26 and we win 73-60. That puts us beating the top 2 teams in the conf and has us looking up, one would think right? Well we decided that we were too good for our own good and lose then next game to Washington State 58-57..... Really guys??? Cant blame this on fouls or any other crap, we just decided that we could throw our shoes out on the court and would win... Not so fast and Washington State earns the victory. Next up is UCLA. You know the UCLA that beat us in the first game of the season..... and we play the same way. UCLA dusts us 76-60... Now the scramble is on. We have lost 3 of our last 4 and the conference title is just slipping right down the tubes..... |
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11-17-2015, 12:34 PM
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#289 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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With just over a month to go now in the regular season, most schools have their teeth pretty well sunk into conference play and at this point it's just a matter of executing and hoping to stay healthy. Those who still have work left to reach their goals are either going to hit their stride now, or savor disappointments that will be bitter in some cases. Time is beginning to run short, and the expected hierarchy has established itself in most places.
Before we get to the projected field itself though, a correction and an apology must be made. It seems an error made it into our last issue. It stuck in our craw that Bradley was ranked so highly after a bad loss to Indiana, and a frankly much worse loss to Detroit Mercy. The Braves are a fine team but don't belong in the same category as Indiana and the two Kansas schools. The mistake has been corrected, and we think their current standing much more closely reflects the achievements of their season to date. We will endeavor to earn the confidence of our valued readers by being more vigilant in future editions. NCAA 1 -- Kansas State(Big 7), Indiana(Big Ten), Kansas, West Virginia(Southern) 2 -- North Carolina State, Bradley(MVC), Kentucky(SEC), Washington(PCC) 3 -- Oregon, California, San Francisco(WCC), Duke 4 -- Seattle, North Carolina(ACC), UCLA, Duquesne 5 -- Virginia, Michigan State, Southern California, Michigan 6 -- Iowa, Georgia Tech, La Salle, Arkansas(SWC) 7 -- St. John's(Metro NY), Dartmouth(Ivy Group), Connecticut(Yankee), Niagara(WYN3) 8 -- Utah State Agricultural Col(MSAC), Texas Western(BIAA), Murray State(Ohio Valley), Marshall(MAC) West Virginia is far from a sure thing as a deserving #1, merely the best of many possible options for the fourth spot there right now. The other three however, are basically locks at this point with the Hoosiers looking better and better with each passing week. One of that power trio is highly likely to cut down the nets at the end of the year in our view. Kansas is a bit behind the other two, but not by far. The PCC has a number of teams good enough to play spoiler as well if things fall their way(and they don't beat each other up too much) NIT 1 -- Clemson, Southern Methodist, Ohio State, Oklahoma A&M 2 -- Holy Cross, Saint Joseph's, Dayton, Villanova 3 -- Maryland, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Idaho State 4 -- Syracuse, Saint Mary's, San Jose State, Santa Clara 5 -- Stanford, Temple, Georgetown, Vanderbilt 6 -- Oregon State, Utah, Illinois, Oklahoma City 7 -- Colorado, Toledo, Washington State, Baylor 8 -- Tulane, Iowa State, Citadel, Brigham Young |
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11-17-2015, 12:35 PM
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#290 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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The National Basketball Report: February 14, 1957
NBR Top Twenty 1. Kansas State (19-1, LW 1) 2. Indiana (20-1, 2) 3. Kentucky (18-2, 3) 4. Washington (20-3, 4) 5. Kansas (18-4, 5) 6. NC State (17-6, 6) 7. North Carolina (19-4, 8) 8. Seattle (26-3, 7) 9. Duke (17-5, 10) 10. San Francisco (21-3, 14) 11. Bradley (16-4, 13) 12. Southern California (16-5, 9) 13. Duquesne (22-5, 15) 14. Arkansas (18-5, 14) 15. West Virginia (20-4, 15) 16. Dayton (20-5, 18) 17. OKlahoma A&M (17-3, 16) 18. La Salle (22-5, NR) 19. California (15-6, 20) 20. UCLA (16-5, NR) Dropped Out: Oregon State (17), Oregon (19) The Season Inside Taking the road least traveled to find rivalry and revelry Throughout the season, conference races get heated. Except in this season. The ACC, Big 7, Big Ten, PCC, and SEC races have all but fizzled out. You already know who is getting in, who is vying for a top seed...there is incredibly little drama in those conferences. What about a conference where there is only one postseason bid? What about a conference where the foes are so heated, police are often on standby in case the fans get rowdy? What about a conference involving a bunch of players few outside its jurisdiction have ever heard of, but within that perimeter, they are heroes? This is life in the Mountan State Athletic Conference...the conference nobody wants to concede. The conference which gives no quarter. The conference, which resides in the Rocky Mountain range, includes teams from Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. The conference has some notable players, primarily Utah's sterling guard, Robert Peeler, and the Utah State duo, Benjamin Doolittle and Fran Upshaw. Outside of that, little is known by the common fan. What should be known is this: As UNC, Duke, and the like travel on luxurious buses in fine weather, these schools are traveling around on rented buses in snowy conditions through treacherous trails. "We had an accident heading to Provo, about a year back," said Peeler, discussing a trip to BYU last year. "A car spun out of control, and hit us. We ended up in a ditch alongside the road. They didn't have another bus for four hours, and it was snowing. The officers brought a paddy wagon for us. "Unfortunately, that slipped on an ice patch, and ended up about a quarter-mile down the road in another ditch." The life of the Mountain Stater is not glamorous. Your story, outside of local papers and this publication, will most likely go untold. The time zone is not conducive to East Coast reporters, and the West Coast already has the PCC to worry about. Only four players over three seasons have been in the national recruiting top 150, which is considered the upper echelon of recruit. Those are: 1953: C Hal Myers, Utah State (110th) 1954: PF Dave Baptist, Utah (104th) 1955: C David Long, BYU (103rd) and PG Rudy Grimmett, Colorado A&M (106th) The most highly-ranked class is the 1954 Utah team, which ranked 48th. Last year's overall haul, in which half the conference ranked from 52nd to 89th, is considered the best yet. "Our kids see opportunity here," said Utah coach Lacy Hutchens. "We see the true value of the player's hard work and dedication. We aren't always going to land Captain Hotshot, but we will land Hustle Russell." This year has seen a culmination of years of Hustle Russells. The conference race is heated, more heated than any race in the country. And nobody knows about it...until now. Conference play began on January 21st. Going into conference play, Utah had the conference's best record, at 8-5. What has happened since has been nothing short of chaos. January 21st New Mexico 69, Utah 67 (OT): A wonderful primer for Mountain State play; the two teams combine for 46 fouls, and the Lobos' Dean Burroughs hit a fading shot from the corner at the buzzer to send it to overtime. With 1:33 left, he found Michael Weiland for a score, giving New Mexico a 69-67 lead. New Mexico forced a Utah miss, but Weiland traveled with :35 left. Gene Theisen had an open look, but missed. Fritz Owens got the rebound, and threw up a wild shot, hoping to get a foul. He missed. Robert Peeler fouled Hobert Chastain, fouling out of the game with :05 left. Chastain missed both free throws, giving Utah one more shot. Theisen got the rebound, took two dribbles, and launched a ball 75 feet. It hit the rim, but did not fall. The Lobos welcomed Utah to the season inside with a loss. "We call it the season inside because it is simply more important to us than the season out there," said New Mexico head coach Tony Fuller. "We know this conference isn't getting more than one bid yet. We get our games outside of here, we take a few licks, and we get ready. Then we get inside our real season, the one inside our conference. The season inside, that's our goal. Anything out of it is gravy." Denver beat Wyoming, 63-55, getting the Pioneers to 8-7. The aptly-named Marco Winner scores 19. They are one of two teams over .500 at this stage. They also own the league's best outside wins this year, beating Michigan State, Saint Mary's, Stanford, and Colorado on the road. They may be the best-tested for the season inside. "Oh, that's a bunch of malarkey," said Pioneer coach, James Dao about Fuller's talk of the season inside. "That's the talk of a man who does not have a complete program. Look, you want to be the best? Go play somebody. Get better. You get better by learning from other teams, by finding what works for your team. These schools that want to play half the season, fine. Games are games. Play your best, be your best, and your best gets better as you become more experienced." Make no mistake, however: the Mountain State is not like the ACC. When a school from a "big" conference gets taken down, the coaching staff usually gets congratulatory phone calls or telegrams about it the next day. Of course, that is after a call is placed to the advance men who were at the game, taking notes about who did what, and what was run. Despite the weather, these men conduct their thankless jobs with incredible detail. January 26: The first full day of conference games. Denver takes out Utah, 79-70, sending a message across the conference. The Utes are 0-2, and Denver 2-0. Utah State, the preseason favorite, opens things up with a handy win over BYU. The Cougars, the program many thought would become kings of the conference, are an afterthought after three directionless seasons. January 28: Utah gets in the win column with a 30-point win over Colorado A&M. That was not a surprise. What was a major surprise was BYU's 55-39 win over Denver. Denver was held to 29% shooting. Though, to hear Dao say it, BYU had little to do with it. "Sometimes you don't shoot well," said Dao. "Sure, defense has something to do with it. But we missed twelve layups. We were not ready to play today. Sometimes, you tip your cap to the other team. And sometimes, you look in the mirror. Today was a day to look in the mirror." February 2: Montana shocked Utah, 90-81, while Denver rebounded with a big, 66-55 win over Utah State. Their lead in the conference is conditional, though; BYU beat New Mexico, 66-59, has played one less game, and would hold a tiebreaker over Denver if the two were to tie (at least, for now). BYU is 6-13 on the year, but 2-1 on the season inside. "We talked to our kids before the conference season started," BYU coach Maxwell Scudder said. "We had an honest talk with them. We played an amibitious schedule before the season started. We took some hard falls, but we made some progress, too. I told them I thought we were a better team than we were at the beginning of the season, and if they stayed mentally tough, and saw through it all, we were really 0-0. And we liked our chances. Our kids never lost focus." BYU played NC State, Arkansas, Temple, Cal, Syracuse, Southern Cal, Illinois, Duke, Washington State, Saint Mary's, and Oregon before their conference slate took hold. During one stretch, they lost ten of eleven games. Since then, they are 6-3. February 4: Denver and New Mexico took a break from the conference, registering non-conference wins. But BYU took the conference lead, blasting Colorado A&M, 73-57. Utah State beat up on Jekyll-and-Hyde Montana, 78-48, while Utah took out Wyoming, 64-59. The Cowboys are the one program that has had difficulty finding their footing in the conference. They are 0-5. "We are a young team," said Wyoming head man Israel Schneider. "We're going to take our lumps. We play two seniors, and start three juniors. I think we're showing progress. This league is tight, from top to bottom. All we can do is ask our kids to learn and get better every day. If we do that, the chips will fall where they may." Montana, meanwhile, seems to be the wild card in this whole mix. They beat Utah, in Salt Lake City no less, then turn around and lose by thirty at home to a similarly up-and-down Utah State team. They're 7-13, and in searching for answers, have found more questions. "It's like a leaky ship," said Ellsworth Rainbolt, who is in his first year as the head coach at Montana after spending the last three years as the assistant coach at Kansas State. "You find one hole, plug it up, and another hole springs up. You're slowly going under, but you're going to prolong it as much as possible. We had that one five-game losing streak to start, then got a win...then had Syracuse and Seattle. Fine. We beat Idaho, but then had another losing streak. After the Utah win, I thought we may have turned a corner. I think we walked into one." Montana, for the moment, is 2-2 in the conference. February 9: Montana would fall again, this time 60-58 to Brigham Young. The loss came despite forcing 21 turnovers out of the Cougars. A 36-26 rebounding edge got BYU to 4-1 in the conference. Perhaps the turnaround is complete. At least, in these circles, they are an afterthought no more. "We are eight and thirteen," said Scudder. "It is not time to sit back and rest on our laurels. Our laurels are thorns. Sit back, get pricked. This team should not feel comfortable and headstrong at this point." The Cougars had let a nine-point halftime lead slip, and fell behind 52-51 with 3:35 left. They stretched it back to 59-54 with :14 left. Many who were at the game, though, say that if the Grizzlies had one more possession, that game may have gone into overtime. "BYU was tired," said one scout afterwards. "Montana closed on them hard. They just ran out of time. Give them two more minutes of gametime, and Montana wins that." Denver stayed with BYU, getting a key 63-61 win over New Mexico. Hubert Steffens led the Pioneers with 17. In many ways, Steffens embodies the Mountain State player. "He's a heads up player," said Dao of Steffens. "He isn't flashy. Good jump shot. Hits his free throws, especially big ones. He rebounds well for his size (5.8 rebounds, 6'1 guard). He has gotten better every year he's been in the program. He's a kid who came in, knew his job, and does his job. He's just gotten better at doing it. He has his abilities. I wouldn't say he's outplayed them, like Winner. But he knows his strengths, and plays to them." Marco Winner, meanwhile, started out of necessity on last year's 10-19 team. In many ways, he is the face of the program. "He struggled early on," said Dao. "He's a guy who worked hard, and got into games, but he pushed too hard. He rushed his game. He had to learn. Now, he's near a thousand points. I don't know that anyone could have predicted that when he was a freshman. He didn't start until last year. He is not the fastest player, nor the biggest, nor the strongest. But you will have a hard time finding anyone who plays harder." Utah State, meanwhile, cannot find their rhythm. They lose, handedly, to Colorado A&M. The 6'10, 245-pound behemoth for A&M, Josh Bernal, led the way with 20, adding to his conference record of career points (as of this writing, he is at 1,402). His nickname in the conference is "Sasquatch." This, despite the fact that hal Myers, Bernal's direct opponent in this game, is twenty pounds bigger. "We call him the Yeti," said Bernal. February 11: Utah gains some revenge, beating Brigham Young, 85-73. Robert Peeler, the star of the conference, scored 12 and dished 16 assists. "I look at the things he does, and wonder why he chose Utah," said one scout. Peeler is the conference's second-all-time scorer, behind Bernal. He is the Mountain State's all-time assist man, with 658 going into publication. He has 315 more than second place. And he's humble about it. "I get to pass to guys who score," said Peeler. "It isn't rocket science. Do you see what those guys are doing? They're putting spaceships up there. All I do is throw a ball. The other guy has to score it." If Utah (11-8, 3-3) is to pull this conference out, it will be because Peeler has willed them to it. On this day, he willed Jack Gallagaher to a career-high 22 in a must-win game against a conference leader. He has nutured forward Ernest Pedro into a consistent scorer. He makes the plays in front of him, and doesn't leave any plays on the floor. BYU, meanwhile, never felt in sync. The old doubt returns, at least for a night. Players were hesitant. The Cougars commited 22 turnovers. "We weren't us," said Scudder. "We were what we've been." Colorado A&M, meanwhile, pulled even with the tops of the conference, beating Denver on the road, 80-69. Sasquatch scored just 11, but he had help. Pedro Duran had 15 with eight boards. John Waldman scored 12, Joe Bethune put up 11 off the bench. "We have, perhaps, more experience than anyone here," said Aggie coach Ralph Musselman. "Seven guys have started many games for us. It seems like everyone on our roster has at least ten games in. Seven of our guys have been in the program for three years, at least. When you're around each other that long, you're bound to gain chemistry. They know where they are. It starts with 'Quatch, but everyone knows who is going to be where. "With this outfit, it's a matter of hitting shots. That is not something we're particularly good at." The Aggies are 122nd in field goal percentage. They've relied on the defense, which is among the worst in points allowed, but fourth in the conference in field goal percentage against. A lot of that comes from the thirty-point loss to Utah. Aside from that, they've been stingy. Meanwhile, Utah State, for all of their stutters and failures to sustain success, find themselves tied atop the conference, after holding on in the final minute to beat Wyoming, 50-49. The loss kept the Cowboys winless, at 0-6. The win makes this a whole new conference. Going into publication, this is the outlook: On Saturday (2.16), Utah travels to Utah State in the key game. On Monday, Denver travels to Utah. It is possible that the fate of the Utes will be determined in these two games. Or, it will be determined that nothing will be determined. Look at how the first go-round of games went. There is a lot of basketball to be played in the season inside. With just one place at the table, these teams will do what it takes to get in the chair. On the final day of the season, when Utah State travels to Utah, BYU plays Wyoming, Denver goes to Montana, and New Mexico heads to Coloraod A&M, chances are that nothing will be settled. We'll have to wait for the snow to melt, and the dust to clear. --- The List Finalizing the list for major awards There is a month to go before the tournaments get announced, and plenty of action between now and mid-March. However, the major awards should begin to be investigated. Let's take a look. National Player of the Year Elijah Davis, SG, Clemson. Davis is the frontrunner for the award, in part for his play, and in part for leading a Clemson team expected to go nowhere towards a NCAA berth, while generally finding defenses geared towards stopping him every single night. He is averaging a nation-high 23.3 points a game, a full two points higher than Harvard's Matthew Cordoba. He's also averaging 7.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists. He's shooting 52% from the field, 81% from the line, despite facing those defense that are geared to stop him. He has scored 2145 points in his career, heading into publication. This is not just purely a Player of the Year award, but a Career Achievement Award. Davis is one of the finest collegiate players ever, and will be fifty years from now. John Hildebrand, PG, West Virginia. The senior star is averaging 14.2 points, 8.2 assists, and 4.7 rebounds a game. He is the top point man in the nation, and has taken on more of an offensive burden as the Mountaineers require his shoulders to carry them. His assist-to-turnover ratio of 4.28 is the third-best mark for anyone averaging over an assist a game; out of those two, Chet Terrazas has a bit of a poor man's Hildebrand going on. Normand Herbert of Kansas State doesn't have the numbers. Hildebrand should find himself a spot on the All-American team. And he could win this award yet, especially if Clemson collapses yet. Sonny Freeman, SF, Dartmouth. You know about Freeman if you read an earlier issue of the Review. He is averaging 18.3 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 2.0 assists a game. He is also leading a young Dartmouth team to the top of the Ivy League. He has a solid counterpart in Charles Smith (16.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists), but it is Freeman who makes the Indians go. He deserves the acclaim that goes with this list. Dennis Sawicki, SF, North Carolina. One of the nation's most talented players, Sawicki is averaging 19.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.9 assists a game. Sawicki has a talented roster around him, but he is still the leader of a Tar Heels team that has championship aspirations. JC Quiles, PF, Southern California. Quiles is averaging a double-double, 11.0 points and 11.7 rebounds a game, helping Southern Cal take the next step to the national stage. Quiles is shooting 55% from the field. National Freshman of the Year Charles Witten, SG, Idaho. Witten is averaging a frosh-best 17.5 points a game, along with 3.6 rebounds and 2.1 assists. Witten is the only Vandal averaging over 8.5 points a game. Mario Poe, C, Columbia. Poe, who was considered the favorite early on, is averaging 13.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.0 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks a game. Columbia has struggled, but Poe has gotten better as the season goes on. Joshua Azure, PG, Oregon. Azure is putting up 11.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.9 assists a game. He leads all freshman in the latter, and is the only player averaging at least ten points, three rebounds, and three assists a game. Brent Burchell, PG, Michigan State. Burchell is putting up numbers somewhat similar to Azure. He's scoring more (13.1 ppg), but not quite as productive with rebounds (2.4) or assists (3.0). He is, however, averaging 1.4 steals per a gams, which is tied for third among freshman. Kelley Kuehl, SG, San Francisco. Kuehl is putting up 12.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.6 assists a game, along with a freshman-leading 1.8 steals for the Dons. He can fill up a stat sheet, and is doing so for a team that has the largest profile on this list. Coach of the Year Saul Bray, Seattle. The Chieftains are 26-3 under Bray, who is in his first year after being Washington's top assistant. His defensive approach has paid dividends, as the Chieftains, who start four juniors and one sophomore, are second in the nation in defense. Shawn Rankins, Syracuse. No matter what you think of Syracuse and their flaky schedule (2-1 vs the top 50), you cannot deny Rankins' ability to motivate and to teach. Syracuse has the seventh-best defense, is first in the nation in field goal percentage against, and has a top-thirty offense. Romeo Woods, Oklahoma A&M. Woods has led a resurgence in Stillwater, getting the Cowboys off to their best start ever. He has had to juggle many things, including a mostly offensive roster. While his specialty is in defense, he has put together a great offense, one that ranks near the top twenty in many categories. Duane Lear, Georgia Tech. It isn't quite how you succeed, but what you do once you do so. The Yellow Jackets are 15-6 after a 25-win season with a veteran group. Not many thought they would be terribly good, but here they are. Dave Johnson, Clemson. The Tigers are 17-6, when many thought they'd be .500, at best. He's doing it with one of the nation's best players, but what else? Johnson's ability to keep Clemson focused, and away from media criticisms, is one of the more outstanding jobs done this season. NBR NCAA Tournament Projection 1 Indiana Kentucky 1 8 Dartmouth Murray State 8 5 California UCLA 5 4 Duquesne Arkansas 4 East South 3 Duke West Virginia 3 6 Michigan State Georgia Tech 6 7 Connecticut Niagara 7 2 Kansas NC State 2 1 Kansas State Washington 1 8 Toledo Texas Western 8 5 Dayton La Salle 5 4 Southern Cal Oklahoma A&M 4 Midwest West 3 Bradley San Francisco 3 6 Clemson Oregon State 6 7 St. John's Utah State 7 2 North Carolina Seattle 2 |
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11-17-2015, 12:48 PM
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#291 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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Next up is Washington, Stanford, and Idaho.
I expect Washington to get us back, and then we take out Idaho and Stanford..... So what do you think happens??? It's a big game so we decide to play basketball and take down Washington for the 2nd time this year 89-56. It is beyond irritating that we can destroy a top 5 team in Washington, and then fail to show up for the little sisters of the poor here. I don't even know how we did it. Washington is too good to let us shoot 64% on them, and we are too good to only shoot 30% at Washington State... Edmund Nelson who should now be entering the picture for Freshman of the year goes 15-22 and scores 34 points that game. Next up is Stanford.... and if you haven't been following the theme we lose 86-77. If you would have told me we would have had 17 offensive rebounds and shot 47% before the game, I would have told you we would have blown them out.... However, we forgot to hold onto the ball and turn the ball over 25 times.... Tip of the cap to Vince as his squad picked our pockets 13 times to earn that victory. Thankfully in the 3rd game we do beat Idaho, however, we were down 34-29 at half so we didn't exactly play well there either. All of this has me worried as we are 18-7 on the year and 7-5 in the conf. The game has us on the bubble list and listed as in. I am not worried about that, as I still expect to make the NCAA tourney, but we somehow need to figure out how to put 2 halves of basketball together when we aren't playing Washington and California. It certainly doesn't get any easier for us, as we have Oregon, Oregon State, California and Washington State left. We could easily go 3-1 or 0-4 with this group. Hoping the trend does not continue to happen as I would like a few more wins under our belt for tourney time and playing 2 halves would be nice to see for a few games. Last edited by muns : 11-17-2015 at 12:51 PM. |
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11-17-2015, 12:52 PM
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#292 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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Bracketology
This our second-to-last pre-tournament projection, with the regular season now measured in just weeks remaining. There are still dozens of teams with their postseason futures uncertain, and a number of conference races are too close to call. Particularly interesting is the upcoming Georgia Tech visit to Kentucky; both are still undefeated in SEC play. And as brilliantly noted by others at NBR, the balance of power in the MSAC changes daily, sometimes even more often than that. Pressure is high in many places this time of year; few can afford an off game now. NCAA 1 -- Indiana(Big Ten), Kansas State(Big 7), Kansas, West Virginia(Southern) 2 -- Bradley(MVC), North Carolina State, Kentucky(SEC), Callifornia(PCC) 3 -- Washington, UCLA, San Francisco(WCC), Seattle 4 -- Duke, Oregon, North Carolina(ACC), Southern California 5 -- Michigan State, Southern Methodist, Virginia, Duquesne 6 -- Clemson, Georgia Tech, Holy Cross, Arkansas(SWC) 7 -- St. John's(Metro NY), Dartmouth(Ivy), Niagara(WYN3), Toledo(MAC) 8 -- Connecticut(Yankee), Texas Western(BIAA), Brigham Young(MSAC) , Murray State(Ohio Valley) The biggest change we have to report is at the very top. For the first time this season, we do not list a Kansas program as the #1 overall seed, with Indiana nipping Kansas State by the slightest of margins. Both have put a modest distance between themselves and Kansas, but the defending champions still cannot be overlooked. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers continue to head a group of four competing for that final #1 spot. At the bottom of the heap it's a yo-yo for some teams, notably those such as Clemson, Holy Cross, and Southern Methodist who did well enough to move back into the field. Going the other direction there is movement as well, particularly in the case of Michigan who was considered a solid bet to not just get in but win a game until about three weeks ago; now, they are nowhere to be found. NIT 1 -- Saint Joseph's, Oklahoma A&M, La Salle, Iowa 2 -- Michigan, Dayton, Mississippi State, Notre Dame 3 -- Maryland, Ohio State, Saint Mary's, Stanford 4 -- Syracuse, Villanova, Idaho State, Illinois 5 -- Temple, Georgetown, Utah, San Jose State 6 -- Oklahoma City, Colorado, Oregon State, Utah State Agricultural Col 7 -- Santa Clara, Washington State, Vanderbilt, Baylor 8 -- Minnesota, Citadel, Iowa State, Virginia Tech |
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11-17-2015, 12:52 PM
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#293 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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The National Basketball Report: February 26, 1957
The season is winding down, legacies are coming to an end, and the landscape is changing. We're looking forward to all of it. In this issue, we try to answer a few questions, and get you ready for what is to come. NBR Top Twenty 1. Kansas State (22-1, LW 1) 2. Indiana (23-1, 2) 3. Kentucky (22-2, 3) 4. Kansas (21-4, 5) 5. North Carolina (22-4, 7) 6. Washington (22-4, 4) 7. Seattle (28-3, 8) 8. North Carolina State (19-7, 6) 9. San Francisco (23-3, 10) 10. Duke (19-6, 9) 11. Bradley (18-4, 11) 12. Duquesne (25-5, 13) 13. Arkansas (20-5, 14) 14. West Virginia (23-4, 15) 15. Dayton (22-5, 16) 16. Southern California (18-7, 12) 17. Clemson (19-7, NR) 18. Oklahoma A&M (19-4, 17) 19. La Salle (23-6, 19) 20. UCLA (18-5, 20) Dropped Out: California (19) A Little Q&A A couple of questions were posed to us recently Q: In the AP poll, NC State is ranked higher than North Carolina...this despite the Tar Heels being three games ahead of the Wolfpack in the ACC standings. How much disrespect should North Carolina feel? Not too much disrespect. NC State is 13-7 against the top fifty. North Carolina is 7-3. The Wolfpack's losses are to Bradley, at Kansas (by six), Duke (13), at Clemson, North Carolina, to Kansas State (by one), and at home to Clemson (by two). North Carolina has losses to Oklahoma City, Oregon, Boston College, and Duke. The BC loss was an ugly one, and frankly, Oklahoma City was not much better. UNC is all but assured of a top-two seed in the NCAA, so I wouldn't worry too much if we were them. Besides, in our poll, North Carolina is ranked higher than NC State. The question is about the Absolutely Preposterous Poll. Q: Who is the kid from Harvard that is among the scoring leaders? That would be Matthew Cordoba, a 6'2 scoring machine out of New Haven. This year, he is averaging 22.1 points a game, along with 4.3 rebounds. He has 1,008 points for his career, and will likely set several scoring records in the Ivy, and perhaps nationally, by the time he's done. The single-season scoring record in-conference is 542, set by Columbia's Chris Telles in 1954-55. Cordoba has five games to go, and 508 points on the season. In all likelihood, that record will be his by season's end. The scouting report on him says he is an expert scorer inside, which is interesting for someone who is "just" six-foot-two. He also has a reliable jump shot (43% shooting) and a capable free throw shot (72%). His shooting is up from 38% a year ago, and if he gets to 50% or so, he'll be at nearly 28 points a game. His turnovers are down from a year ago, though they're still higher than his coaches would like. That said, he is definitely one to watch for the record books. With that on our mind... Q: What are the most likely records to fall this year? Scoring Records: Nationally, none, now. Elijah Davis has 2209 points for his career, nearly five hundred more than the previous holder, Maryland's George Dawkins. He likely won't get to his single-season mark of 759, set last year. Rebounding: Brady Poe of Siena is now the record-holder, with 1172 in his career. Alvin McKissick of Syracuse is second, at 1126. The single-season record of 397, set by Kentucky's Jerry Young back in 1953-54, is not threatened this year. Assists: John Hildebrand, the wonderful magician of West Virginia, recently took the career record from former Indiana great Marcos Godfrey. Hildebrand is up to 755 dishes for his career. Godfrey, though, delievered 734 scores to others in just three years. Stephen Ferrari, of San Francisco, is at 719. He likely will not pass Hildebrand. Andrew Cosme of St. Joe's (715) and Utah great Robert Peeler (690) may get past Godfrey this year, too. The single-season record, set by Godfrey back in 1954-55, is 258. Hildebrand has a chance to break that, but WVU has to get far in the tournament. He's at 219 so far. USC's Freddie Nation, the nation's leader in assists (9.3 ppg), also has an opportunity. He has 233 so far this year, and the Trojans are expected to get into the postseason. Steals: Duquesne's Chauncey Hinkley is the career leader, with 275. He leads Lane McClary of Duke by 28. McClary probably will not catch him. Hinkley will probably also bust his single-season total, set last year. He has 88 this season, ten off his seasonal mark. Blocks: Wisconsin's Freddie Yan has 320 after upping his block rate to 5.4/game this year. He leads McKissick by 22. The former leader, Jason McKnight of Navy, had 293. McKissick probably will not catch Yan, but he could see postseason action. If Syracuse makes a good run in the NIT, he could become the leader. Yan is six blocks off the single-season record, held by former NC State big man Angelo Parham, back in 1954-55. That record, barring some catastophe, will fall this year. The Stretch Run Your guide to the rest of the regular season As we gear up for the very end of the regular season, the question begs...what is there to watch? What races are the best for the casual fan? Are there any players we should be specifically interested in? What are the toughest tickets over the next month? Will the questions ever end? Well, we're here to answer all of that. So, without further ado, this is the End-of-Season Primer. ACC Games To Watch 2.27: Duke (19-6) at North Carolina (22-4). Duke is two games behind North Carolina. They probably won't jump seed on NC State, who looks to be assured a 1 or 2 seed, depending on the ACC Tournament. But they *can* jump the Heels. And keep themselves from falling into the bubble conversation (something Duke is closer to than anyone realizes). This will also be Lane McClary and Jonathan Fleenor's last trip to Chapel Hill. The two have had storied careers for the Blue Devils. They should be applauded by their chief rival. 3.2: NC State (19-7) at North Carolina (22.4). Anyone who needs to know why this is here is dense. 3.2: Clemson (19-7) at Maryland (16-10). The Tigers are the feel-good story of the nation, and are incredibly close to an NCAA berth nobody thought was possible back in November. Maryland, however, has NCAA plans of their own. A win over the Tigers alone won't help them achieve it, but it will help. 3.6: North Carolina at Maryland. This, combined with a Clemson win, could give Maryland a much better resume. North Carolina could be wrapping up a league title with a win here. Or it could be exposing itself to chaos if they lose. 3.9: North Carolina at Clemson. We know, all of these games are centered around a small subset of ACC teams. But North Carolina has a very difficult closing schedule. This will be Elijah Davis' last home game. And Clemson could be fighting for their tournament lives in this one. This has all the makings of one heck of a story. You know we'll have a reporter or two there. Big 7 3.2: Kansas (21-4) at Kansas State (22-1). The Powers of Oz meet in Manhattan. This is the last high-profile home game for the 53 Boys, the superclass of Billy Jacob, David Gunter, Tommy Fritts and Erich Walton. For Luis Horne, Alphonse Howard, and Loren Brown, this is the last of these games...unless they meet in the NCAA Tournament, of course. We've been waiting for that for years. Big Ten 3.2: Ohio State (16-7) at Illinois (17-6). This may be a play-in game, especially for Illinois. Ohio State is considered to be in the NCAA by the Absolutely Preposterous board...we have our doubts. But if the Fighting Illini lose, their chances will be slim to none. 3.6: Michigan State (16-6) at Michigan (12-11). The Wolverines are disappointed in their year (honestly, we told you this, in the beginning of the season). But they have a chance to spoil Michigan State's season with an upset. The Spartans will be in the NCAA if they win out. This is the one we think they can, and will, lose. Consider Sparty spoiled by the Wolverine. 3.16: Indiana (23-1) at Illinois. The Hoosiers are 50-0 in Big Ten games going into publication...14-0 the last three years, and 8-0 this year. This, most likely, is the biggest hurdle between four straight undefeated conference seasons. Can you imagine what Champaign would look like if the Illini got the first Hoosier loss in Big Ten play, especially on the eve of the tournament bracket announcement? The committee may have to wait on this result. 3.16: Ohio State at Michigan State. If they survive all other tests...this is a play-in game. Winner gets a NCAA bid. The loser is shuffled off to the NIT. Guaranteed. Border Conference 3.2: Arizona (12-12) at Arizona State (10-13). With this conference so tight and up for grabs, Arizona plays their first of two against the Sun Devils. They also get a trip to Texas Western, before getting the Devils again at home. They could put a major tiebreaker together by beating the Sun Devils here. And put the pressure on Texas Western. The Miners have lost to the Sun Devils. 3.9: Arizona at Texas Western (12-11). If Arizona dispatches Arizona State, this might be for the conference. And this could be the moment for junior star guards Silvio Flores and Robert Williams to shine. This is a classic backcourt vs frontcourt strength battle, and we're looking forward to see who comes through. 3.16: Arizona State at Texas Western: Of course, if things shake out differently...say, Arizona State beats Arizona twice, and Arizona knocks off the Miners...this would be for the league crown. Ivy Group 3.2: Columbia (15-10) at Dartmouth (14-9). The Indians have a three-game lead on Penn, and a three-and-a-half game cushion on the Lions. If Columbia is to drag themselves back into this, they MUST win this game. 3.2: Pennsylvania (11-13) at Princeton (12-13). Of course, the Quakers, a surprise entrant into this race after a ten-game losing streak early this year, need to win this to close any gap between them and Dartmouth. Princeton, who has fallen on hard times in conference play, can spoil the Quakers' year here. 3.4: Dartmouth at Pennsylvania. If Columbia and Penn win the aforementioned games, this could get the Quakers to within a game of the conference lead. Think Philadelphia wouldn't be ready for this game, if that were the case? This team will definitely be fun to watch next season...they're already pretty fun to watch now. 3.9: Dartmouth at Harvard (13-10). Matthew Cordoba, the nation's second-leading scorer, is only a sophomore. And he already has a thousand points, gained as part of a thirty-point output in the Crimson's 69-53 win over Harvard. The first he faced off with Sonny Freeman, he won the scoring battle, 22-18...but Freeman, and Charles Smith (18 apiece) won the game. Now, the game shifts to Cambridge. Can Cordoba even the score? Can Harvard continue a NIT run? Metro 3.2: St. John's (18-7) at NYU (12-16). This is where the Johnnies clinch their fourth-straight Metro title. Then, they can start trying to move up in seed. Note...if NYU manages to beat St. John's, and Fordham (12-16) beats Brooklyn (7-19), there would be a three-way tie for first, where each of the three teams--St. John's, NYU, and Fordham--would hold a tie-breaker over the other. This has, very much, a trainwreck feel to the ending of the Metro. Mid-American 3.2: Marshall (13-11) at Bowling Green State (9-14). Toledo clinches the conference if they win out and Marshall loses a game. Marshall has four conference games left; Toledo has just two. The play-in games start now for the Thundering Herd, with this trip to Bowling Green. They beat BGS 77-50 at home a month ago; however, the Falcons have won two in a row, both on the road, and may have a third if they beat Kent State before the Marshall game. 3.9: Toledo (14-12) at Western Michigan (3-21): If Marshall drops a game, expect Toledo to clinch here. If not, it'll especially be 3.16 against Bowling Green State. Missouri Valley 3.9: Bradley (18-4) at Oklahoma A&M (19-4). Assuming these two continue their current trends, this will be for the conference title. Barring any unforseen collapses, both will make the NCAA Tournament. But seed, and region, are important. The winner of the conference can, and most likely will, receive a 3-seed. That will keep them away from a top seed until the Elite Eight. The winner will also play in the Midwest, while the loser could be sent to the West, in a tradeoff with the PCC. Mountain State 3.2: Brigham Young (11-14) at Denver (15-10). It starts here, with the two conference kingpins facing off for, at least in BYU's case, sole possession of first place in the conference. This is something nobody has been able to grab a hold of this year, controlling your own destiny. The Cougars can do that with a win in Denver. If they fail, though, it likely creates a three-way standoff with Colorado A&M being added to the mix. That's good, because... 3.4: Colorado A&M (13-11) at Utah State (12-12). The Aggies need help. They can find it here, by knocking off one of the teams that stands in their way of a championship many thought they'd run away with in November. 3.9: Colorado A&M at Brigham Young. The dance continues, just with different partners. 3.11: Denver at Colorado A&M: Do-se-do... 3.11: Brigham Young at Utah (14-9). Not many have discussed the Utes. However, if chaos breaks this conference down, the Utes, and Utah State, all have shots, even with four losses. If the Cougars fall to either Denver or A&M, this would, in all likelihood, pull Utah even, and create complete havoc that even the finest of statistician would have trouble deciphering. 3.16: Utah State at Utah. If that chaos happens, this will serve to knock out at least one team. Think an in-state rivalry isn't heated enough? Stick them in Utah, in the still of winter (the season runs until mid-May), and tell them one playoff bid is on the line. That'll angry up the blood that didn't need to be angered up any more as it is. 3.16: BYU at Wyoming (7-17). Watch BYU get to this point a game up on everyone, and fall to Wyoming. That is the most fitting way to end this Mountain State season. OVC: While there is intrigue atop the table, where Murray State (20-8, 8-1) holds a half-game edge on Tennessee Tech (10-16, 7-1), this won't be decided until the conference tournament. Pacific Coast 2.28: UCLA (18-5) at Oregon (18-6): All of these will have a familiar theme. All seem like knockout games, Instead of the conference being viewed as strong because they are tough, top-to-bottom, they are eating themselves alive. As they accumulate victories and losses against one another, teams like Michigan State and Clemson, while being of inferior quality, are getting higher profiles because, well, gee, they keep winning. UCLA, in beating Oregon, can stay with Cal for the Southern Division ead. 3:2: California (17-7) at Washington (22-4): This is the rare game that will not involve teams trying to get into the postseason. Rather, it will involve two national heavyweights (regular season heavyweights, anyway) who are jockeying for NCAA position. In Washington's case, that means a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. For Cal, they are likely playing for a #2, probably a #3 seed. Regardless, whoever wins the PCC title will be viewed very strongly going into the vetting process. This one looms large for both teams. 3.2: Oregon(18-6) at Southern Cal (18-7). There are whispers in some circles that Southern Cal is no longer a lock for the NCAA Tournament. We agree that they have been on the back end of a downward trend; however, we still have them firmly into the big show in a month. That said...it's a month away. Much can happen to this team between now and then. Oregon is scuffling a little bit, despite winning three of four. They ave 4-4 since they last played the Trojans, back on the 31st of January. That was in Eugene. Now they have to come to Glendale and face one of the top post players in the country in JC Quiles. They'll have to do it without their own top postman, Kenny Foster, who is out for the next two and a half weeks with an injury. Good luck, Quackers. 3.5: Oregon State (16-9) at Southern Cal (18-7). The Beavers really are fighting for their NCAA lives. They are currently on the outside looking in. Beating the Trojans on the road could give them a temporary spot at the table...perhaps at the expense of the team hosting them. 3.5: Washington at Oregon: Things don't get easy in this conference, do they? 3.9: Washington at UCLA. Washington could very well go from penthouse to outhouse in this conference. There are three very possible losses sitting right there for the Huskies. UCLA is tough at home, and they're a team that could be jockeying for position, or jockeying to sit at the NCAA table, rather than with the NIT. 3.9: Oregon at Oregon State. Civil War on the hardwood, potentially for an at-large bid. Does this get any better? 3.9: Southern Cal at Cal. This may be the single greatest day NCAA basketball has had since it resumed play four years ago. Cal, especially if they fall to Washington, will be hearing critics left and right. The Trojans are already hearing them. We get the feeling that this is a game where both teams will assert themselves, and dish out a classic for all who are fortunate enough to view it. 3.12: UCLA at Idaho (9-14). Upset alert. 3.14: Oregon State at Washington. This is Washington's final attempt to show the NCAA Committee they are worthy of a top seed. It may be Oregon State's do-or-die attempt at a bid. Desperation brings about grace. We'll see a lot of grace in Seattle on this night. 3.16: UCLA at Oregon State. This could settle anything from seeding to inclusion. All we know is, this game will mean something. Southeastern 3.5: Georgia Tech (19-6) at Kentucky (22-2). Both are 9-0 in the conference at publication. Both will presumably be 10-0 when they face off in Lexington. The Yellow Jackets are a surprise much in the way Clemson is; not much was expected from them, and here they are. Chalk that up to an unorthodox style (we've talked about it in the past) that forces teams to play in a manner of which they are unfamiliar. Kentucky simply has ballplayers, and good ones at that. Georgia Tech will not be knocked from a bid here; however, they can definitely make a name for themselves with an upset on the road. 3.12: Mississippi State (15-9) at Tulane (14-11). This has more NIT implications than NCAA, but it does pit two good teams who have disappointed some this year. That said, it does have two of the more electric players in the nation, Eusebio Williams of Tulane and Mississippi State's Douglas Lapierre, going against one another at the point guard spot. The best part? They're juniors. Southern: West Virginia has clinched the top seed in the conference tournament. Virginia Tech is capable of making a NCAA run, but it'll have to come from winning the bid outright. Southwestern 3.2: Arkansas (20-5) at Baylor (17-6). The conference is no sure thing for the Razorbacks, who have sat in our ranking all season. Even the Absolutely Preposterous has recognized their talent, and have kept them in the top twenty all season long. But this trip to Baylor is a major hurdle. Southern Methodist is breathing down their neck, sitting one game behind at publication time. Baylor is two back, at 5-3 in the conference. The Bears are playing for a NIT bid, but the NCAA bid is not cinched here yet. They are not in control of their destiny, but the Bears, behind a solid defense and admittedly ugly basketball, will have a say in matters within the conference. West Coast: San Francisco (23-3, 8-0) has this conference sewn up. San Jose State is playing for NIT inclusion. 2.28: San Francisco (23-3) at San Jose State (16-8). What better way to get on the NIT's radar than by upsetting the conference kingpin? SJSU is three and a half games behind the Dons, but no matter. They're playing for the postseason. Whether or not they can handle the overwhelming talent of San Francisco is another story. 3.14: Santa Clara (9-14) at San Francisco. This is meaningful because it is Stephen Ferrari's final home game as a Don. Anyone who has had a chance to see him will tell you how fortunate they were to do so. If you're able, get a ticket and witness his farewell. Western New York Three 3.2: Niagara (13-12) at St. Bonaventure (10-15). This figures to be a one-horse race, but if the Bonnies want to make this interesting, they'll score the win here. It is the only chance they have at denying Curt To a fourth NCAA trip in his four years. Yankee 3.2: Maine (8-17) at New Hampshire (14-12). This is a knockout game; the winner will be the primary contender to Connecticut, while the loser will sit two back without a tiebreaker. That is, unless... 3.2: Connecticut (13-10) at Rhode Island (5-19). ....there's an upset of the Huskies. Connecticut has always finished strong, but this team has been bumpier than most Husky groups. The Rams could be prime to spring one here. 3.6: New Hampshire at Connecticut. This will, in all likelihood, be for the conference championship. If Connecticut wins, they will have a substantial edge heading into their home-and-home with Vermont. If New Hampshire wins, they would force a tie (assuming both teams win out). NBR NCAA Tournament Projection 1 Indiana Kentucky 1 8 Connecticut Murray State 8 5 La Salle Clemson 5 4 West Virginia Arkansas 4 East South 3 Duquesne Bradley 3 6 California Georgia Tech 6 7 Dartmouth Niagara 7 2 NC State North Carolina 2 1 Kansas State Kansas 1 8 Toledo Texas Western 8 5 UCLA Oklahoma A&M 5 4 Dayton Southern Cal 4 Midwest West 3 Duke San Francisco 3 6 Oegon 6 7 BYU St. John's 7 2 Seattle Washington 2 |
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11-17-2015, 01:03 PM
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#294 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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Our current rank is 20th in the nation.
Our RPI is 5th We have gone 10-5 vs the top 50 We have gone 3-1 vs 51-100 We have gone 5-1 vs 100-200 We are ranked 24th in the country in Rebounds 18th in the country in Assists and 9th in the country in FG% However, we suck at turnovers ranked 149th and points allowed at 109th. So basically, in games that we shoot at high%, rebound and hold onto the ball just averagly we will win. In games that we turn the ball over and shoot poorly we are gonna lose. Not exactly a great combo but that's what we have. In all honesty, that's my fault for recruiting the way that I have, however, in my defense I couldn't recruit kids that I wanted right away due to everybody in this conf having a leg up on me. I just needed to take the best that I could get and mush em together. Hopefully with a tourney appearance this year, and a follow up one next, ill be able to be a bit more selective in terms of who I am recruiting. At the moment its kids that can score which is evident in our FG%, but we are paying for that with turnovers as these kids have no handles. |
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11-17-2015, 02:46 PM
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#295 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Seattle
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Gonna be a wild finish to the season. So many really good teams in the PCC this season - in this sim Washington gets three ranked teams in Cal, Oregon & UCLA plus a dangerous Washington State team. Some very good teams in this conference are going to get forced into the NIT.
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11-20-2015, 04:09 AM
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#296 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: May 2006
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Back to the scheduling thing, I use prestige as well for the same reason(to have a system). I try to schedule teams a bit higher than mine for a somewhat tough, but not unmanageable schedule. Well, this year that made Michigan's road very tough -- which was ok, I wanted it to be -- Tulane had a decent schedule, and a lot of Harvard's opponents ended up sucking even more than expected so they had an easier path than I wanted.
It ends up getting what I want, in general, more often than not, but there are still some outliers. I like that overall. |
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11-20-2015, 04:21 PM
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#297 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Madison, WI
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I'll offer an alternative approach to scheduling. My thinking is this: making the NCAAs is the goal. FBCB has demonstrated over many simulated seasons that your chances of qualifying fall off a cliff if you sport a record worse than about 19-11. The RPI--a win-loss and SOS-based metric--has a lot of influence over your standing in the eyes of the fictional bracket-makers. Finally, it appears that Top 50 wins receive additional consideration.
Balancing those 3 threads isn't perfectly done, but I've found that scheduling teams based on last season's W-L record is a workable approach. Assuming there are no huge drop-offs in your opponents' fortunes, you get some out-and-out great teams that may give you chances at Top 50 wins, some teams who will boost your RPI by virtue of a good record, and perhaps some filler for your own W-L record. Other than that, for flavor's sake, I like scheduling teams that aren't too distant or schools where former assistants have take HC jobs. And I make sure to get home-and-homes whenever I go on the road (that makes it harder to schedule opponents more than ~20 points higher in prestige, but alas). |
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11-23-2015, 07:38 PM
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#298 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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To finish up the regular season we have Oregon, Oregon State, Cal (Huge game there) and then Washington State.
Oregon worries me, We owe Oregon State one back from earlier on in the year, If we want to finish as conf Champs we need the Cal game and then some major help and then not to lose to Washington State again. Basically we need to go 4-0, not an easy Task by any stretch of imagination, especially with these cast of characters we have in the PCC. Ive seen crazier though, and we do have Mr. Nelson running our show so I can be optomistic |
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11-23-2015, 07:38 PM
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#299 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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The National Basketball Report: March 10, 1957
NBR Top Twenty 1. Kansas State (26-1, LW 1) 2. Indiana (27-1, 2) 3. Kentucky (25-2, 3) 4. Kansas (22-5, 4) 5. Seattle (28-3, 7) 6. North Carolina State (22-8, 8) 7. San Francisco (25-4, 9) 8. Washington (24-6, 6) 9. Bradley (22-4, 11) 10. Duquesne (26-5, 12) 11. North Carolina (23-7, 5) 12. Arkansas (24-5, 13) 13. Dayton (24-5, 15) 14. Duke (21-8, 10) 15. West Virginia (27-5, 14) 16. Southern Cal (20-8, 16) 17. Clemson (20-9, 17) 18. Oklahoma A&M (21-6, 18) 19. La Salle (23-6, 19) 20. UCLA (21-6, 20) Dropped Out: Nobody Well, we got what we wished for, didn't we? We asked for the basketball heavens to open, and to deliver upon us intrigue until the final day of the season. We asked for the basketball gods to bring us a beautiul chaos. They most certainly delivered. Look at the poll above. After the top four, only the bottom five stayed the same. There was tremendous fluctuation in the middle ten. It is amazing to see that this late in the season. What we have before us may not happen again for years upon years. There are so many teams that still have a chance. There are many teams, those who have lost more than they have won, who are staring the postseason in the eye, and not blinking. There are conferences with more teams worthy of the NCAA than who will make it. And then, there's the Big 7. No drama. Party poopers. Without further delay, we'll take you around the country once more, conference by conference, and see if we can sort out this beautiful chaos. Atlantic Coast - We don't know anyone outside of South Carolina and Wake Forest rooting for South Carolina or Wake Forest in the ACC Tournament. Many coaches are against the conference tournament concept, saying it reduces the impact of the regular season, and that it leads to teams getting a "cheapened shot" at a NCAA bid, costing worthy teams a selection. Athletic directors, who see the dollar signs, are not as easily persuaded. And George Washington, who shocked the Southern Conference by upsetting West Virginia from it's sixth-seed position, would easily disagree with the general sentiment. The ACC, who has kept the conference tournament since the NCAA resumed play four years ago, has bucked the trend of regular season and done. It would not be a surprise if, after seeing how the conference does with its tournament, other conferences end up giving in to its fans, and its coffers, and adopts a tournament. We digress back to the present. Top-seed North Carolina is stumbling, having lost three straight after knocking off heated rival Duke. Of course, losses to NC State, at Maryland, and at Clemson do not decree that the sky is falling. However, it does create some concern for the Tar Heels, who were fighting for a top seed in the NCAA before this losing streak started. Now, nothing but a tournament win will give them any chance. In all likelihood, the ACC champ, unless dominant, is in line for a #2 seed in a Kentucky-led South Region. Clemson, in defeating the Heels, may have punched their ticket, regardless of what happened in the Southern. They had put themselves on the edge after their own three-game losing streak, which came at Duke, at Maryland, and against the Cavaliers, before rebounding against UNC. Of course, a win against Maryland in the first round of the conference tournament should complete that goal. Not only would it give them one more win over a quality opponent, it would prevent Maryland from potentially winning the tournament. Experts believe, and we agree, that if Virginia or Maryland win the ACC Tournament, it will take another spot from a team believed to be in. That could be Clemson, especially in the case of Maryland. North Carolina, NC State, Duke and Clemson are ticketed for the NCAA, while Maryland and Virginia are likely NIT-bound. Maryland has the best case to get into the NCAA, but it will likely take an appearance in the final, meaning wins over Clemson and North Carolina. They are in the lump of teams, with La Salle, St. Joe's, Holy Cross, Georgetown, and Villanova, that are considered on the inner edge of the outside of the tournament bubble. The tournament kicks off on Thursday. Big 7 - The only issue here is if Kansas acquires the top seed in the West. Right now, we believe Kansas State has the Midwest #1, and Kentucky has the top seed in the South. These won't change, in our view. That leaves Indiana and Kansas, and potentially Seattle. NC State, currently ranked fifth in the Absolutely Preposterous poll, has to demolish the ACC Tournament to gain a top line. They are probably the second seed in the South. As of now, we have Indiana heading to the East, which should be the easier of the two regions. Kansas would have to deal with Seattle, likely San Francisco, UCLA, Cal, or Southern Cal...or maybe even Washington, if UCLA wins the PCC and gains what would have been Washington's seed as a result. Outside of that, the only question is whether or not Colorado receives a NIT bid. Losing to Villanova by 21 at home, then to SMU by 11, at home, and to 13-14 Nebraska, at home, doesn't gain our confidence. The Buffaloes wrap up with Kansas State at home on Saturday. How will that go? Big Ten - Indiana has a top seed, likely in the East. If they are the #2 in the Midwest, in a flip of last year, we'd consider legislation against the tournament committee. Putting the top two teams in the nation against one another in the same region twice in a row was ludicrous enough. The committee is brazen (re: stupid) enough to do it. We're hoping history does not repeat itself thrice. So now, the question is, can the Big Ten get three bids? Illinois and Michigan State are firmly on a bubble that may have burst when George Washington claimed the Southern. Michigan State was considered to be the final team in the field. Their SOS may have held them back. The same can be said about Oklahoma A&M, so you can debate the merits of either being included. Sparty has absolutely zero quality wins out of conference. The best you can say about Michigan State's schedule is they lost at Dayton...by thirty-two, and had the good fortune of Denver being better than advertised. They also lost to St. John's. The best team they've beaten in their OOC slate is Marquette, who is 16-13. Not getting a home game against Illinois is helpful. Honestly, in review, the case for Sparty being in the NIT is much stronger than being in the NCAA. They are a team that preyed on weaker teams, and could not beat teams considered even with them, or stronger...or even slightly weaker. That leaves Illinois. They are in the same boat, really. They beat BYU, who while winning their conference, are still under .500. They have an admirable loss against NC State, but lost at Stanford. They almost won in Lawrence against Kansas, and own a win over Holy Cross when the Crusaders were struggling. This now looks worse for Holy Cross than it looks better for Illinois. In conference play, they were swept by a pretending Ohio State team. They did beat Michigan State. You know what? Leave them both out. We don't know that we'd keep them in and yank a team like Oregon, Clemson, or Georgetown. Border - Texas Western holds their own destiny. So does Arizona State. If the Sun Devils win out, that will include a sweep of the Miners. They face each other in the season finale on Saturday. So, if the Sun Devils get past Arizona in Tuscon (no easy task, given their rivaly), then go win at Western, they're in. If Texas Western beats Arizona State, they're in. It is that simple. [b]Ivy{/b] - At publication, amazingly, Dartmouth sat tied atop the conference. The Indians started 9-0, but have lost three games in the last week, and have not looked good in any of them. It is not strange, of course, that they are tied. The Ivy is a tight league, and no team is truly that far and away better than anyone else. However, it is who they are tied with that is the surprise. The Penn Quakers were 1-10 on Christmas day, after a 64-61 loss to St. Joe. Since then, they are 11-3, including an identical 9-3 record in the conference. They have split with Dartmouth, but, frankly, they feel like they are the ever-so-slight favorite at this point. They have won four in a row, have played excellent, including an 86-67 win over the Indians last week. The path to travel is difficult for the Quakers, and puts them at a disadvantage. They have to go to Columbia (17-11), and then to Cornell (12-15) to close the year. The Indians have Brown (9-19) and Princeton (13-14), both at home. That said, this is the Ivy, and anything can happen. Columbia has Penn and Harvard (16-10) at home. If Columbia wins both, and Dartmouth and Penn lose both, Columbia would get the bid, via having the best overall record. Cornell and Harvard are also tied in the conference, at 7-5...but Cornell cannot end up with the best record overall, and is thus eliminated from any chance at winning the conference. Harvard can, by the same scenario Columbia has: winning out, and Dartmouth and Penn losing out. March 11 is a huge day across the national landscape...more on that in a bit. Here is the Ivy schedule. Brown (9-19) at Dartmouth (14-12) Princeton (13-14) at Yale (6-22) Pennsylvania (14-13) at Columbia (17-11) Harvard (16-10) at Cornell (12-15) A lot will be decided on the 11th...specifically, whether anything needs to be decided on the 16th. Here is that schedule: Princeton (13-14) at Dartmouth (14-12) Brown (9-19) at Yale (6-22) Harvard (16-10) at Columbia (17-11) Pennsylvania (14-13) at Cornell (12-15) Metro - St. John's is the pick, despite tying Fordham and NYU. They get the nod based on their overall record. This saves a major headache for the administration in the conference, as those three teams all went 1-1 against one another. The Johnnies are the only ones with a winning record, and thus, are the only ones to see postseason play. Mid-American - Marshall controls their own destiny. They sit a half-game behind Toledo, and have two to play: at Western Michigan (3-24), and at Miami-Ohio (8-19). Both teams are 15-12 heading into the final week, though Marshall will get one more game. If Marshall wins both games, they are in. They will have tied Toledo in the conference, at 10-2, but, and this is the confusing part...they went 2-0 against fourth-place Ohio, while Toledo went 1-1. When there are only two teams in a tiebreaker, it begins with head to head. They are 1-1 against one another. So then it goes to their records against the third-place team. In this case, that would be Bowling Green State; both are undefeated (Toledo's remaining game is against BGS, at home). That brings us to fourth-place Ohio, in which Marshall gets the tiebreaker. As long as either Marshall wins out, or wins one of two and Toledo loses their final game, which would tie the two once again, and set things in motion, this time BGS being the opponent that settles the score. Missouri Valley - Bradley holds a two-game lead on Oklahoma A&M, and have swept the Aggies this season. The Braves are the MVC champions. Oklahoma A&M holds one of the final spots towards getting in. They have played some tough teams, including Texas Western, Colorado A&M, Dartmouth, Clemson (loss), St. Mary's (win on the road), Arkansas (win), SMU (win)...basically, we don't see how they aren't in. But this is the NCAA Tournament Committee, after all. Mountain State - Oh, here we go. Brigham Young (13-15, 9-3) controls its own fate. They win out, they're in. Denver, Utah State, and Utah are all chasing. from a game behind Colorado A&M, at 14-13, 7-5, needs a prayer...but they are not totally dead. We mentioned that March 11th schedule, and how much it would shape the national landscape. Here is the second half of that schedule: New Mexico (8-19) at Montana (8-19) Denver (16-12) at Colorado A&M (14-13) Brigham Young (13-15) at Utah (16-10) Utah State Agricultural C (15-12) at Wyoming (8-19) Three of those games are massive for the conference makeup. Denver and Colorado A&M could be in a playoff game, depending on what happens with BYU and Utah. Utah State has no cakewalk over Wyoming. The Aggies beat them, 50-49, at home earlier this season. So, let's say BYU loses to Utah, and Utah State and Denver hold serve. That would make a four-way tie atop the conference, at 9-4. Here is the March 16th schedule: Denver (16-12) at Montana (8-19) New Mexico (8-19) at Colorado A&M (14-13) Utah State Agricultural C (15-12) at Utah (16-10) Brigham Young (13-15) at Wyoming (8-19) Utah would only control their fate to a point. If they win, BYU is eliminated. But Denver remains. If they win, and all three teams go to 10-4 (let's say BYU wins, just for this sake, Utah would get the nod, at 18-10, over Denver's 18-12. This is based on a three-way tie for record. Let's say BYU loses, and falls in a tie for third with Utah State. Then it would be a case as to who, actually, comes in third: If third is BYU, then Utah wins the conference (Denver is 0-2 vs BYU, Utah would be 2-0). If third is USU, then Denver wins the conference (Denver is 2-0, Utah would be 1-1). Let's say Utah State beats Utah, and Denver wins. Denver would get the nod, based on their 2-0 record over State. At least, that's how we see the information. Phew. Ohio Valley - Season complete. Murray State wins the bid. Pacific Coast Currently, UCLA (21-6, 10-4) and Cal (10-4, 19-8) have a half-game lead on Washington (24-6, 10-5). Southern Cal (20-8, 9-6) has an outside shot, but would need a Hail Mary to come through twice. UCLA kicks things off with a trip to Idaho. The Vandals, who were 9-3 heading into conference play, are 0-14 in the conference. The chance they pull the upset is extremely nil. So, let's say UCLA gets that win, and goes to 11-4 heading into the final day. UCLA: 11-4 Cal: 10-4 Washington: 10-5 March 14, Oregon State travels to Washington, while Cal goes to Washington State. The Cougars have swept UCLA this year, and have home wins over Southern Cal, Stanford, and Oregon State. So this is no easy trip for the Bears. UCLA has to win, though, because they went 0-2 against a presumptive third-place team in Washington, while UCLA went 2-0. Okay, let's say they win, as does Washington at home. UCLA: 11-4 Cal: 11-4 Washington: 11-5 UCLA would win the conference by winning at Oregon State. Cal would win only if UCLA loses and they beat Stanford at home. Washington would be eliminated in this scenario. In fact, the only way the Huskies can win is if UCLA loses out, and Cal drops into a tie, at least, with the Huskies. Then Washington would win the conference via their head-to-head record with Cal. So, to sum up... UCLA: Wins if they win out, or wins one of two, and Cal loses one of two Cal: Wins only if they win out, and UCLA loses at least one Washington: Wins only they win out, UCLA loses out, and Cal loses at least one of two We're pretty sure we've got all of that. As far as NCAA bids are concerned, we agree with the notion of Washington, UCLA, USC, Cal, and Oregon having bids. Oregon State played their way into the NIT with a 2-7 mark in their last nine, including getting crushed at home by the Ducks, and losing poorly to Washington State on the road. Southeastern - Simply put, if Kentucky (25-2, 12-0) wins a game in their final two, they win the conference. If they lose out somehow, after a 12-0 start, and Georgia Tech (21-7, 11-1) wins out against Vandy and LSU, then the Yellow Jackets would get the nod. GA Tech cannot win the conference by tying Kentucky, due to the Wildcats' victory over the Jackets earlier this season. Southern - George Washington (14-18, 6-8) shocked everyone when they upset West Virginia, 79-71, to win their way into the NCAA Tournament. The sixth-seeded Colonials were ranked earlier in the season after a 4-0 start, but lost six in a row, and could not string anything together. In fact, they had not won consecutive games since January 12. Southwestern - If Arkansas (24-5, 10-1) beats TCU (12-15, 5-5) at home, they win the conference. Should they lose, they'll have to watch Southern Methodist play TCU two days later for the conference title. If Arkansas loses and SMU wins, the Mustangs, by virtue of a 2-0 record against TCU (and a 1-1 record vs TCU for the Razorbacks), would gain the conference. Arkansas may be hard-pressed to get in without the title; we have ranked them all year, but a loss to TCU would hurt considerably. And it is doubtful the committee will take two teams, especially when they have to take two from the Southern. This is a one-bid conference; Baylor and whoever loses out between these two are NIT-bound. West Coast - San Francisco (25-4, 10-1) won the conference easily. Saint Mary's (17-11, 6-5) and San Jose State (16-11, 4-6) are destined for the NIT. WNY3 - Niagara (16-12, 3-0) is in. Even if they lose to St. Bonaventure, the Purple Eagles have the better record. This one is done. Yankee - The Connecticut Huskies (16-11, 7-2) made things interesting by losing at Vermont (13-15, 5-4) yesterday. They'll have a week to stew on that, before getting the Catamounts again. If they win that, they win the conference. The only caveat: they are 5-7 at home. If Maine (10-17, 6-2) wins out, beating New Hampshire (14-15, 4-4) and Rhode Island (7-21, 2-7), and ties the Huskies at 8-2 in the conference, the Huskies would still win the conference, on the basis of the vote of their conference. You read that right. Connecticut and Maine would have lost to each other. Both would also have lost to Vermont, and to nobody else in the conference. So, all tiebreakers are out the window. This would then go to a vote of the league administration. Word is already out that they would vote for Connecticut, based on the prestige of the Huskies, over that of remote Maine. It is in the league by-laws, so Maine cannot argue or litigate. So, Maine needs Vermont to sweep UConn, and then win out. It's the only way for the Black Bears. Talk about having the entire world against you... Independents - Because there are so many, we saved them for last. Seattle (28-3), Duquesne (26-5), and Dayton (24-5) are the only independents considered firmly in the tournament. In our view, La Salle (23-6) should only have a little worry. George Washington likely took Holy Cross' (20-9) spot. The Crusaders would be in over Georgetown due to their RPI, which is 14th. They played to a 14-9 schedule against the top 100, including a 6-8 mark against the top fifty. Georgetown is 10-3, but only 4-2 against the top fifty. They can get one more score if they beat Notre Dame, but that won't help them, either. Gonzaga (19-9) has played nobody. Do not expect them. St. Joe's RPI of 44 is too low. Same goes for Seton Hall (20-9, 62), Oklahoma City (19-10, 40) and so on. Syracuse, at 25-4 but a RPI of 80, is this year's Pitt...a team with a gaudy record but a bad schedule. Villanova is 21-7, which is too many losses for too crowded a field. Especially, expect Seattle, Duquesne, Dayton, and maybe La Salle. After that, all of the teams mentioned here, you'll probably find in the NIT Media Guide. NBR NCAA Tournament Projection 1 Indiana Kentucky 1 8 Niagara George Washington 8 5 Clemson Georgia Tech 5 4 Duquesne Duke 4 East South 3 Bradley West Virginia 3 6 St. John's Arkansas 6 7 Connecticut Murray State 7 2 Washington North Carolina 2 1 Kansas State Kansas 1 8 Toledo Texas Western 8 5 Southern Cal Oklahoma A&M 5 4 Dayton California 4 Midwest West 3 San Francisco UCLA 3 6 Oregon Illinois 6 7 Dartmouth Brigham Young 7 2 NC State Seattle 2 |
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11-23-2015, 07:53 PM
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#300 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Baltimore MD
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First game up is Oregon and we just pounce on a top 25 team here. Nelson is huge once again with 28 points as we win this one 80-55.
Second up is Oregon State- A much better game as we get revenge for the earlier loss, as we end up winning the game 72-64 Next up is the game we need to have with Cal, but it just wasn't meant to be this year, as we lose a heartbreaker 74-78. I can with confidence say that if we don't have 4 out of our 5 starters foul out of the game (with Nelson only playing 20 mins of it) we with that game just like we won the first one. We need to get a handle on that as we aren't going to go very far if that continues to happen. We certainly have had our fair share of foul troubles this year and going forward that is a concern for the NCAA tourney. Last up is Washington State- and thankfully they don't play spoiler here. We beat them 85-57 as Nelson had 24 in that game. So we don't win the conference. Freaking Cal does, and as a matter of fact we finish up 3rd in the South of the PCC (just tells you how strong the PCC is), but we are going dancing this year for the first time in the programs history, and ill take it. Time to see who we get matched up with in the tourney |
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