WW CXLI - The Legend Of Zelda The Village Wins

[Danny]

This also appears to eliminate Raiders Army as he knew Autumn was going to be lynched.

[Danny]

So overall my list looks like this of order of trusted to suspected with spaces indicating a gap in trust level.

Mauboy
Tyrith

CrimsonFox
RaidersArmy

Chubby
Jackal

[Abe Sargent]

Where Am I in that list?

[Danny]

You are 100% a wolf, but I also think you're the brutal, so I am saving you for last.

[Abe Sargent]

DAMMIT! I hate when you guess right. This game sux.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Danny

The wolf is jackal. Game, set, match

This is a strange statement considering you aren't the seer.

[Raiders Army]

For me, my circle of trust is:

Trusted: mauboy1, Tyrith
Semi-Trusted: Crimson Fox, Danny
No trust: Jackal, Chubby

mauboy1 and Tyrith really made the lynch happen.
I highly doubt a wolf would vote for another wolf with so few in the game, so that clears CF to a certain extent. Danny was the first vote on Autumn, so that clears him as well to a certain extent.

[Raiders Army]

With 7 players left, two good guys and 1 bad guy, that leave four players that are vanilla villagers. Assuming the seer didn't hit a wolf in the last night cycle and also didn't hit Link, that would be three unknowns. I'd ask the seer to take a look at things and determine if now would be a good time to reveal. If one of those unknowns could be eliminated by the fully trust list, then we'd be down to two left and the game would effectively be over today or tomorrow.

[Raiders Army]

For now:

VOTE CHUBBY

While I don't think Danny is a wolf, I don't think I'd trust a bold statement like he made without analysis.

[Raiders Army]

I'm out for the day, but will check in via my phone.

[The Jackal]

I have a feeling this is gonna be a pretty slow day

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

This is a strange statement considering you aren't the seer.

I made that post to specifically see how Jackal would react. I am ok with his reaction and am leaning toward switching my vote

[Danny]

I'll put my money where my mouth is.

Unvote Jackal
Vote Chubby

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well, nothing really, of course. But two people rubbed me the wrong way somehow, CF and Jackal. And since CF has a vote, I'll go there for now. He's hard to figure out, so not bad to put some pressure early anyway.

VOTE CRIMSON FOX

This post makes me wonder about The Jackal. And I'm honestly inclined to look that way instead of Chubby. Wolf Chubby had a pretty good opportunity to put a third vote on a villager (either me or CF) and seriously diminish the chance of additional candidates coming into the race.

It's possible that the thinking is, hey, it doesn't look like either wolf is going to take any heat today, so why get a bad vote on my record? But at the same time, when no one had more than two votes that seems fairly dangerous. So on the whole I'm more inclined to vote for The Jackal.

VOTE THE JACKAL

[CrimsonFox]

I don't think Jackal is a wolf.

[CrimsonFox]

I agree with Danny's analysis of Raiders even though it's all circumstantial evidence and doesn't take into account that wolves make mistakes and lots of people play on phones and don't read everything. Still I'm believing at this point Raiders is a villager.

[CrimsonFox]

Mau and Tyrith definitely get a pass. While it's possilbe they might cannibalize a wolf, not a non-exposed wolf.

If Chubby turns out not a wolf, Danny seems the most likely wolf.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

This post makes me wonder about The Jackal. And I'm honestly inclined to look that way instead of Chubby. Wolf Chubby had a pretty good opportunity to put a third vote on a villager (either me or CF) and seriously diminish the chance of additional candidates coming into the race.

It's possible that the thinking is, hey, it doesn't look like either wolf is going to take any heat today, so why get a bad vote on my record? But at the same time, when no one had more than two votes that seems fairly dangerous. So on the whole I'm more inclined to vote for The Jackal.

VOTE THE JACKAL

That was a big part of my initial reasoning as well. I'm still torn on who to go for, but I think we'll be fine as the one we don't lynch can just be scannned.

[CrimsonFox]

CHUBBY 4 - CrimsonFox (216) Jackal (230) Raiders (259) Danny (263)
JACKAL 2 - Chubby (224) Tyrith (264)
DANNY 1 - Mauboy (247)

unvotes: Danny for Chubby (222)

[CrimsonFox]

At least we don't have to look at wolves protecting each other.

[CrimsonFox]

What do you think, Jackal?

[Danny]

Maybe I shouldn't bring this up but it seems pretty obvious to me, so it probably is to the wolf also. Crimson pretty clearly seems to be seer who scanned Jackal as a villager. So, the martyr should have an order in to protect Crimson tonight.

[Danny]

That said, if what I just said is true, the game will almost certainly be over tonight.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Danny

Maybe I shouldn't bring this up but it seems pretty obvious to me, so it probably is to the wolf also. Crimson pretty clearly seems to be seer who scanned Jackal as a villager. So, the martyr should have an order in to protect Crimson tonight.

Yeah I was going to actually say this for sure in a couple hours. if Jackal was at all in danger of still being a candidate. Wanted to see where discussion went and think it over the weekend but I agree I can't think of a reason not to disclose. Was hoping Chubby would reveal perhaps .

If Chubby was the hands down winner I would have probably said so after the lynch. Anyway, yeah LInk, protect me please.

[CrimsonFox]

And if by some miracle Chubby isn't the wolf, then the only 2 candidates I can think that would be are
Raiders and Danny

Raiders because there's no real proof that he is good other than his vilalger-like posts.
Danny because of the potential of wolf on wolf and he's a good player. Granted he says he's not a good wolf so maybe he wouldn't be this good of a villager as a wolf.

After that Tyrith I guess although I can't see him at all eating an unrevealed cowolf.

[CrimsonFox]

And yes I scanned Jackal and he came back clean.

[The Jackal]

It's hard for me to say. In short games it is usually best to not overthink things and go with where the information says to, which right now seems to be Chubby.

On the other hand, in a short game, it could behoove an experienced wolf to act strongly because if he can convince people not to vote him for a day or two the game is over. So I understand the looks Danny is getting.

[Tyrith]

If Chubby isn't the wolf, I would scan Danny and we can go from there if that's also a miss.

As a wolf in the 2/2/2 tiebreak I was in I think I would just read the thread and leave without doing anything, hoping nothing else would happen and hoping to get lucky drawing rocks. Or hoping the vote would swing back to Narc for some reason. Although if Autumn and I are both wolves and we let what happened on D1 happen, we fail pretty bad at WW.

UNVOTE THE JACKAL
VOTE CHUBBY

[CrimsonFox]

CHUBBY 5 - CrimsonFox (216) Jackal (230) Raiders (259) Danny (263) Tyrith (278)
JACKAL 1 - Chubby (224)
DANNY 1 - Mauboy (247)

unvotes: Danny for Jackal (222) Tyrith for Jackal(264)

[CrimsonFox]

And if there is a cunning we're pretty boned.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Yeah I was going to actually say this for sure in a couple hours. if Jackal was at all in danger of still being a candidate. Wanted to see where discussion went and think it over the weekend but I agree I can't think of a reason not to disclose. Was hoping Chubby would reveal perhaps .

If Chubby was the hands down winner I would have probably said so after the lynch. Anyway, yeah LInk, protect me please.

I did reveal, I'm vanilla villager As I said, I'm cool with being the sacrificial lamb as it keeps Link and Zelda safe. If I had a read on a wolf I'd push for that to end the game but I don't.

[The Jackal]

I'll be pretty surprised if it isn't Chubby or Danny, but we'd still have a pretty small pool of people to choose from.

[The Jackal]

Chubby is definitely playing it like he's a villager

[Chubby]

going off the stuff up this page

Unvote Jackal
vote Danny

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Zinto

Vote Count:

Crimson- Autumn(164)
Raiders-Chubby(152)
Tyrith-Crimson(100), Narcizo(140)
Autumn-Danny(102),Mauboy(177),Tyrith(183),Raiders(191)
Mauboy-Jackal(113)

So going off of this and my assumptions, there's a wolf on Autumn. I'm more inclined to guess one of the pile on votes so I think I'll go back to my day 1 random vote which actually has something behind it now (for me)

unvote Danny
vote Raiders Army

[mauchow]

Since I went all in once with autumn I'm gonna just lay back on this one. Imo Danny is the second wolf.

[Danny]

We are in great shape regardless if Chubby is the wolf or not.

Crimson scans me or Raiders and we lynch the other player. Only way we lose is Mauboy or Tyrith are the wolf. And if they are, then well done.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Since I went all in once with autumn I'm gonna just lay back on this one. Imo Danny is the second wolf.

At least the suspicion should help me not get night killed.

[mauchow]

Ok

[mauchow]

Mark my words. Danny is the second wolf. Sorry this game only lasted two days, three if we Lynch chubby tonight.

[Danny]

Just to play this out, if Mauboy or Tyrith is the martyr, we win!!!

Right now we are 6-1. Let's assume we lynch chubby and he is not the wolf. The wolf then kills the martyr, who hopefully is Tyrith or Mauboy. making it 4-1. Crimson then scans me or Raiders and we either lynch the found wolf or the one who is not cleared (could even be me!). Then, the wolf kills Crimson. We then have 2-1 game with two scanned and cleared players.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Mark my words. Danny is the second wolf. Sorry this game only lasted two days, three if we Lynch chubby tonight.

Mauboy is starting to convince me. Maybe I am the last wolf.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Chubby

So going off of this and my assumptions, there's a wolf on Autumn. I'm more inclined to guess one of the pile on votes so I think I'll go back to my day 1 random vote which actually has something behind it now (for me)

unvote Danny
vote Raiders Army

Ummmm...ok. I was lurking during the day because it's a pain to log in and post via my phone and the 3G service is more like 1G. Anyhow, I'm not feeling good about the Chubby vote because if he were the wolf, would he at least do a fake-reveal instead of claiming to be a vanilla villager? IMHO that would be the only last ditch effort he could do...unless there are hidden powers that Gannon has.

Anyhow, I would be inclined to go Jackal's direction, but I'm pretty sure it's one of them. I don't get the Danny vibe mau, but you were pretty spot on on day 1.

[Danny]

Raiders, Crimson cleared Jackal via scan.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Danny

Just to play this out, if Mauboy or Tyrith is the martyr, we win!!!

Right now we are 6-1. Let's assume we lynch chubby and he is not the wolf. The wolf then kills the martyr, who hopefully is Tyrith or Mauboy. making it 4-1. Crimson then scans me or Raiders and we either lynch the found wolf or the one who is not cleared (could even be me!). Then, the wolf kills Crimson. We then have 2-1 game with two scanned and cleared players.

It's actually better than that (and I'm not entirely sure CF is the seer). If Chubby is not a wolf, and Link and Zelda reveal, we pretty much have game set and match.

[mauchow]

Eh, after rereading some stuff maybe I'm not 100% sure of Danny but I still like him either tonight or tomorrow whichever route we wanna go w that.
In third I'd put raiders.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Danny

Raiders, Crimson cleared Jackal via scan.

Oh, I missed that somewhere.

[Danny]

Recap the players

Crimson= Seer
Jacka= cleared via scan

Tyrith= key day 1 vote on Autumn
Mau= key day 1 vote on Autumn

Danny= light to medium suspect
Raiders= light to medium suspect
Chubby= today's lynch and we'll know in a couple hours

[Danny]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Eh, after rereading some stuff maybe I'm not 100% sure of Danny but I still like him either tonight or tomorrow whichever route we wanna go w that.
In third I'd put raiders.

Chubby is the right play today. But I am giving you the fact that tomorrows lynch should be between Raiders and I. One of us should be scanned tonight and the other lynched if the scanned player comes up clean.

I actually think we have the wolf though.

[mauchow]

If cf isn't seer then the real seer should step forward as it would be game over lol

I'm actually feeling Danny trying to manipulate the game a little in any way he can as the final wolf knowing there isn't much of a chance. Like I said...I like Danny and I'm sticking with it.