04-07-2011, 12:17 PM | #251 |
Coordinator
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I know for years, when the Padres were at home, Thursday games were always either 1:05 starts or 2:05 starts (can't remember which). I can't remember there really ever being Thursday night games at home for the Padres. That may have changed though now.
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04-07-2011, 12:34 PM | #252 |
Hall Of Famer
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Location: the yo'
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The Boston fans crying on talk radio(as shown on ESPN) is fucking hilarious.
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04-07-2011, 12:41 PM | #253 |
College Benchwarmer
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04-07-2011, 01:00 PM | #254 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Holy shit a shorty sighting!! +10000000000 too =) |
04-07-2011, 01:45 PM | #255 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Sterling Heights, Mi
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Red Sox are now 0-6. When is it officially ok to panic?
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04-07-2011, 01:45 PM | #256 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Wow, Sox lose again. This time 1-0 on an 8th inning run scored on a walk, SB, and 2 sacrifice bunts.
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." Last edited by Ksyrup : 04-07-2011 at 01:45 PM. |
04-07-2011, 02:06 PM | #257 |
Head Coach
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04-07-2011, 02:09 PM | #258 |
Head Coach
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I know Mike Francesca on WFAN is just a pot-stirrer...but when the game was scoreless in the 7th, he asked if the fans will boo the Sox at the home opener tomorrow if they went on to lose today. I'm pretty curious myself.
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04-07-2011, 02:19 PM | #259 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
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I haven't watched one second of the Sox yet this season
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04-07-2011, 02:26 PM | #260 |
Favored Bitch #1
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Location: homeless in NJ
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04-07-2011, 02:31 PM | #261 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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This thing with the Red Sox is surreal now.
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"A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams |
04-07-2011, 02:35 PM | #262 |
Pro Starter
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Location: NC
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Get out your brooms! The Indians sweep the Red Sox. I love it!
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"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball...and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time." -Jim Bouton |
04-07-2011, 03:04 PM | #263 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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Quote:
I think the more relevant numbers are 4 1/2 games out, behind 4 teams, on April 7. That's not an insignificant hole at all, but it's not a "never has been done before" kind of hole either. Still, they'd have to play really good baseball now just to get over .500 by late May. Francona teams have started slow quite a few times now. It's fair question to ask at this point whether that's related to the country club atmosphere they seem to employ at spring training, how Red Sox starters play fewer spring training innings than other teams' starters, how the buzz words are always, "taking things slow, relaxing, not rushing anything, findings ourselves as a team, etc. etc" |
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04-07-2011, 03:04 PM | #264 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
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I'd be surprised too - I think the type of fans that take these things personally and emotionally aren't the fans that can afford to be there opening day against the Yankees. Also, the true "panic" that we used to be known for I think had died out some after 2004 and 2007. The desperation (and really, a lot of the fun), is gone. Last edited by molson : 04-07-2011 at 03:22 PM. |
04-07-2011, 03:14 PM | #265 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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Triple Dola (sorry). They could easily be 0-9 with the Yankees coming up. There's been so many Yankee sweeps against the Red Sox over the years when the Sox have been even a little vulnerable going into it, as if the Yankees smell blood. (2004 excepted).
But, you do have to believe that the .181 AVG/.543 OPS and 7.13 ERA will improve at some point. Last edited by molson : 04-07-2011 at 03:19 PM. |
04-07-2011, 03:37 PM | #266 |
Pro Rookie
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3 out of 4 against the Braves isn't bad. Looks like the opening series sweep at the hands of the Reds is just a case of running into a very good (and clear division favorite) team that started the season hot.
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04-07-2011, 04:10 PM | #267 |
Head Coach
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Mets are getting crrrrrrrrrrushed.
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04-07-2011, 04:16 PM | #268 | |
Hall Of Famer
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Quote:
Well, that & the fact that most of the Braves couldn't hit my wife's pitching. One guy in the lineup hitting over .250, only 3 with an OBP over .300
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04-07-2011, 04:34 PM | #269 | |
Head Coach
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Quote:
Well, the thing is, a 4 game deficit with 156 to play isn't insurmountable, no. You're right about that. But you also made my other point for me at the end of your first paragraph - the hole the Red Sox find themselves in isn't just comparative to the rest of the division, but comparative to where they need to be in order to compete. I remember a few years ago, the Braves played out of their minds for a period of 2-3 months, where their winning percentage was in the high .600s. That's doable in the short term, but markedly difficult to do over the course of an entire season. The math in terms of getting to 97 wins (roughly a .600 performance over the course of the season), isn't awful right now, but the longer they struggle, the tougher it gets. I chose 97 wins, offhand, because that's the midpoint between the Red Sox's win totals in their two championship years this century. They won 98 games in 2004, 96 in 2007, so my off-the-cuff guess is that they need to be roughly in that ballpark to win the pennant. Right now, they need to play .622 ball the rest of the way in order to get to that 97-win mark. Offhand, the last time Boston played at that level over the span of a full season was, conveniently, 1949. They went 96-58 (with a 'tie' also according to Baseball Reference) in 154 (or 155, if you count the tie) games played. They have 156 ahead of them currently, so it's a nice neat comparison. Just sayin'. |
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04-07-2011, 05:17 PM | #270 | |
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It does seem like the Braves' lineup is pretty heavy in the middle but nothing else that really strikes fear into a pitcher. Then again, you could say the same about the Brewers. |
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04-07-2011, 05:25 PM | #271 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jan 2001
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40 great fantasy baseball names
1. Mat Latos Friar Breathing Fists (@Bruvydsb10) 2. The House. (Why? Because the House always wins! via @Digs79) 3. B. Inge Drinking (via @b3r2y) 4. Kershawshank Redemption (via @KNLawlz) 5. My Dinner with Andrus (via @dlhauser) 6. Openly Bay (@aL3481) 7. Hameltime! (@drejay25) 8. Tabata Bing! (@BDC_Pain) 9. FIP 2 Be Square (@SwinAbe) 10. Frozen CarGoNite (@nilsilly) 1. Will Rhymes with Winning (@MookieBlaylock) 2. Crown Jhoulys (@justintime56) 3. The Triple Linding (via @bighambowski) 4. I left my wallet in Alexi Ogando (@therealrorch) 5. To Kila Marlon Byrd (@upyourbuttjobu) 6. Delusions of Adequacy (@alex_q_2006) 7. The Tolbert Report (@_purple_stuff) 8. 902Cano (@Sen_Dangerous) 9. Sipping on Gin & Youk (@jbhollndr) 10. Derek Holland's OPS (@nilsilly) 1. Dexy's Midnight RISP (@kdar123) 2. Dropping Gloads (@steveoutr) 3. The Duda Abides (@mikemattone) 4. Mos Eisley Womp Rats (@RMcfadden94) 5. Baby Got Bacne (@teachak) 6. The TMR is going uBALDo (@MrConsistent14) 7. Anibal Lester (@MOanimalcracker) 8. Can't stand the heat, get out of the McCutcheon (@mebcook) 9. O's before Hoes (@HeyBeavis) 10. Outstanding Morel Fiber (@Many_Vent) 1. The CamRod Popcorn Suite (@drejay25) 2. Bourn in the Youkilis A (@ando775) 3. A Priest walks into Aybar (@ando775) 4. OrangeJhoulys (@wenbickert) 5. Free Willy Bloomquist (@edmfbfanatic) 6. BELTRAN: Legacy (@akhanna4) 7. Bryce Bryce baby (@jamesonfleming) 8. Hu's Clues (@literateartist) 9. Walden Pond (@ehorlib) 10. If you like Pineda Coladas (@tomclaycomb) Last edited by Toddzilla : 04-07-2011 at 05:26 PM. |
04-07-2011, 05:29 PM | #272 |
Coordinator
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Nice!
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04-07-2011, 06:06 PM | #273 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
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Quote:
Sure, good stuff - but outlooks and possibilities can change so quickly and so dramatically this time of year. If they can manage to go a mere 4-3 in their next 7, they've at least matched last year's 4-9 start (a year where they contended despite a ton of lineup injuries). If they win 6 in a row, everything is forgotten. If they lose another 6 in row starting now - obviously the current analysis of future possibilities would seem incredibly rosy by comparison. It's been a stunning 3.7% of the season (equivalent of a little more than a half of a football game in a 16-game season), but we'll know twice as much as we do now in a week. I do believe too that there's something (non-statistical) to their repeated crappy starts. Even though that's tough to analyze through data, that doesn't mean it's just random. Last edited by molson : 04-07-2011 at 06:07 PM. |
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04-07-2011, 06:19 PM | #274 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Quote:
What the hell is with Fredi Gonzales batting his star hitter 6th? Seriously - you want to get Jason Heyward less AB's? That makes sense if you have Pujols batting in front of you... less so if its Alex Gonzales. |
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04-07-2011, 06:21 PM | #275 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Quote:
Those are great. Personal favorite has to My Dinner with Andrus, though Dexy's Midnight RISP is pretty awesome. I'm surprised there wasn't a good Brian Wilson joke in there. |
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04-07-2011, 06:24 PM | #276 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
Sure. And it's a small sample size, I get that. Can I pinpoint what precisely might be the Achilles heel that's causing this slow start and may sink Boston's season? Nope. I still maintain, though, that teams that have these sort of starts typically have underlying issues that make competing over the course of the season more of a hypothetical exercise than anything else. Jayson Stark noted today that 85 teams in MLB history have started 0-5 or worse. Of those, 41 went on to lose 90+ games. About 1/4 of those 85 teams have managed a record of .500 or better. Not one of those 85 teams even won 95 games, which falls short of the 97 win back-of-the-napkin number I mentioned earlier. And no American League team has rebounded from 0-5 or worse to a playoff berth. Doesn't mean the Sox can't buck the trend this year. Before 2004, no team had ever come back from down 0-3 in a best-of-seven series and won, but they managed that. I'm not saying that their start dooms them. Just that it's cause for greater concern than some would like to admit. |
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04-07-2011, 06:26 PM | #277 | |
Pro Rookie
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Quote:
Now they'll probably go on a 26 game losing streak but it's been a fun week + of baseball for the Tribe.
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XBox Gamertag: Pronk32 FOOL-X - Cleveland Naps FOOL - Cleveland Cyclones SLOP - Cuyahoga Spiders |
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04-07-2011, 06:34 PM | #278 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
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Quote:
Even better - the guy hitting 2nd is McLouth. Ridiculous.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
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04-07-2011, 06:38 PM | #279 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
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Quote:
But I wonder how many 90+ win, and how many 85+ win teams lost 5, 6, or more games in a row during the season. My guess is that there's a fair amount. And of those teams, how many of those 6 game losing streaks occurred lets say, specifically from game 84 through games 90. Probably 0, or 1, just because the odds are low for that to happen over the same 6 games of a 162 game season. I'm going to guess that no team has ever won the world series after losing 6 in a row to start August. But I bet at least a couple have won the world series after losing 6 in a raw in the 2nd half of a season at some point. That's all we're dealing with here. Games 1-6. Superlatives abound. Now, losing in the beginning is probably worse that losing at other times, psychologically, and because of the fact they're not losing a big lead, they're digging themselves a big hole. And they've left themselves with a much smaller margin for error (i.e., they likely can't have any losing streaks any longer than this one). But there is going to be extra focus, probably more than is appropriate, on the start of the season. Last edited by molson : 04-07-2011 at 06:41 PM. |
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04-07-2011, 06:55 PM | #280 | |
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Quote:
SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
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04-07-2011, 07:01 PM | #281 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
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Ok, let's turn this around. A 95 win team wins 58.64% of its games. What are the odds that a 95 win team loses 6 in a row? Well, there's a 4% chance that any 6 game stretch for a 95 win team is 0-6. Considering there are 27 such stretches throughout a season, it's quite likely that a 95 win team goes through an 0-6 stretch. They just happened to have theirs at the beginning of the season.
Let's be honest, who would you expect to be higher at the end of the season? 4-1 Baltimore or 0-6 Boston, even with these starts? Nothing against the Orioles, but I'll take Boston to still be 4.5 games better the next 156/157 games. SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
04-07-2011, 07:07 PM | #282 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2003
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BTW, I know its early, but its great to see towns like CLE and KC in particular doing well. I think the Indians are a ways away, but man the future looks bright in KC. Do you Royals guys read Rany Jazeryleri(sp?)'s blog? ranyontheroyals.com?
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04-07-2011, 07:14 PM | #283 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
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Sure, I read Rany. Tho not always quickly as his posting schedule is somewhat erratic.
It's interesting that Poz didn't write his "Why the Royals will win" column so he wrote his own take on that with his "Not a Prediction" post SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" Last edited by sterlingice : 04-07-2011 at 07:21 PM. |
04-07-2011, 07:15 PM | #284 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
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Damn, Swisher broke Nishioka's left leg breaking up a DP.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
04-07-2011, 08:55 PM | #285 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
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Quote:
Is Fredi a numbers guy? (if so I never realized it, but I wouldn't necessarily complain a ton about it either.) In limited AB's at #6 last year, it was noticeably more productive for him than anywhere else in the order. In 47 PA, 1.315 OPS with 6 HR and +1 BB/K ratio (8/7). His other 400+ PA elsewhere in the order feature 121 K's to 83 BB's and only 2x as many homers in nearly 10x as many PA's, and the remainder of his OPS was over 500 points lower. Limited sample size, too small to be meaningful? Perhaps. Heck, even probably, I'll admit it. But he's also walked 5 times so far this year with only 1K in the spot, his HR/AB ratio is also higher than anywhere else in the order (vs last year),etc. In other words, the results of the limited sample have carried straight through into this season. Maybe he's just a guy who psychologically hits better lower in the order. Do I really think that's why he's hitting there right now? Nope. I think it's more likely that they're trying to use him as protection for the struggling Uggla and maybe even as twice-removed protection for Chipper in order to get whatever they can out of him before he breaks something. Plus, it hasn't really made much impact on the PA's so far (he's tied for 3rd on the team, just one behind Uggla for 2nd). And not quite randomly, here's a handy little chart I stole from a blogger who stole it from a WaPo article about Werth hitting 2nd. Code:
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04-07-2011, 08:58 PM | #286 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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That was probably because the guys he was hitting in front of last year didn't scare anyone, so they were more likely to walk him.
Maybe he wouldn't be as great hitting 2nd, but he's been on base almost 50% of the time so far this year and has scored 1 run. If that drops to 38% hitting 2nd, he'll score a boatload more runs hitting in front of good hitters rather than walking so much and getting stranded in front of the 7/8/9 hitters.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." Last edited by Ksyrup : 04-07-2011 at 08:59 PM. |
04-08-2011, 07:44 AM | #287 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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I have to say, a month or so into Rob Neyer's tenure over at SB Nation, I'm not enjoying it at all. First of all, their MLB page is terribly organized - it's just a mess of stories and links, and way too cluttered. Trying to find Rob's stuff only is pretty much impossible. Even if you click on him, it doesn't just give you all of the stuff he's written. You still have to wade through othe rstuff, and if what you are looking for is a day or two old, forget about it unless you want to go link by link backwards.
And now that they've added 3 or 4 other commentors/bloggers to the site, gone are Rob's 3-5 paragraph discussions of topics (it looks like he does one feature blog piece pretty much every day, along with a couple of quickie blog shorts), and in their place are a bunch of tweet-like one-liner jokes from people other than Rob, with the occasional Rob post thrown in.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
04-08-2011, 07:54 AM | #288 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Oh, and I hope all the winless teams win and Texas loses so Jayson Stark can crawl back under a rock. Until it's time for some zany info based on April's numbers, of course. Does this guy do any substantive reporting anymore, or has he gone all-in as the sports news version of Jeanne Moos?
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." Last edited by Ksyrup : 04-08-2011 at 07:54 AM. |
04-08-2011, 01:49 PM | #289 | |
Head Coach
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Quote:
It's not just the Orioles, though. You've also got the Yankees and the Blue Jays playing well ahead of them, and only one of those teams needs to continue to play well to compound the problem for Boston. Start talking about the wild card, and the number of teams playing well that they'd need to catch eventually is larger than that. If it were simply about what Boston does in a vacuum, it'd be less onerous, but it isn't. Whether the reason is psychological, a matter of having to play at a sustained higher level for whatever period of time, or some fundamental flaw with the team (masked injury, a player not settling in right away, whatever), teams that start this poorly have made the playoffs just twice in 85 attempts. I'm not saying that starting 0-5 or worse automatically dooms them. I'm saying teams that start 0-5 or worse probably face deficiencies in one of those three areas that tend to dictate the outcome of the rest of the season. I suspect a team like Boston, with their resources, stand a better chance of pulling out of it and making lemonade from lemons than a lot of other teams would. But I also think that dismissing it as "a 95-win team probably lost six in a row at some point so Boston still has to be considered a favorite to win the AL pennant" is probably glossing things over too much. |
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04-08-2011, 02:20 PM | #290 |
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I suppose this thread is as good a place as any to post this...
The next time you hear someone argue that we should value the opinions of players over those of impartial observers, because "they're the ones playing the games and they know best", consider this: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2011/4...attle-mariners For those too lazy to click the link and read the short entry, here's the summary: Both Brendan Ryan and Jack Wilson claim they are/have been seeing fewer fastballs since moving over to the AL. The data suggests that, if anything, they are seeing more. While I will acknowledge that Pitch FX data isn't perfect, and pitch classifications can use a bit of tweaking from time to time, also remember that psychologists have proven over and over again that memory is a fallible instrument. Wilson and Ryan may believe that they're seeing fewer fastballs in the AL, but it appears that they are in fact mistaken. |
04-08-2011, 03:06 PM | #291 | ||
Hall Of Famer
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Quote:
That wouldn't explain why his strikeout rate was so much higher everywhere else in the order though. Quote:
But if he isn't driving in runs, they aren't scoring either. Somebody has to hit down in the order. Which also brings us back to another bit of data. He's lousy when leading off an inning, average w/out runners on base, much more productive with men on base. Granted, it changes pitch selection, etc & that can have an impact but it seems at least equally likely to me that there are subtle psychological differences in his plate approach, especially at his age. For now, I'm content to trust Fredi G. on this one.
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"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis Last edited by JonInMiddleGA : 04-08-2011 at 03:06 PM. |
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04-08-2011, 03:28 PM | #292 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
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Manny Ramirez forced to retire:
Manny Ramirez has retired, Major League Baseball has announced. MLB says it notified Ramirez of "an issue" under its drug program and that the longtime slugger decided to retire instead of continuing with the process, according to Bill Shaikin of the LA Times (on Twitter).
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04-08-2011, 03:34 PM | #293 | |
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Quote:
Neyer has gone from a daily read forme to a check once-in-a-while thing exactly for the reasons you state. |
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04-08-2011, 03:52 PM | #294 | |
Head Coach
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Quote:
Games 1-6 Games 2-7 Games 3-8 Games 4-9 Games 5-10 . . . . Games 154-159 Games 155-160 Games 156-161 Games 157-162 Twenty-seven, huh?
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null |
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04-08-2011, 03:55 PM | #295 |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2002
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cuervo = snobby mathelete!
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04-08-2011, 03:58 PM | #296 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2002
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Well, I'm no QuikSand -- but you need to at least make a little sense if you're going to attempt to throw numbers around all authoritative-like around these parts.
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04-08-2011, 04:02 PM | #297 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: The scorched Desert
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Quote:
Good riddance, this fucker had no respect for the game and its no surprise he took the easy way out. |
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04-08-2011, 04:17 PM | #298 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
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Location: In Absentia
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Bonds trial ending, Manny retires...man, all we need now is for Clemens to take Mindy McCready hostage to complete the roids troika!
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
04-08-2011, 04:19 PM | #299 | ||
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
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Quote:
Sure it does. Facing better pitches and not faring as well. At the bottom of the order, why throw him anything he can hit? He can wait on a mistake instead of worrying about being challenged. Quote:
Not your best hitter, though.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
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04-08-2011, 04:39 PM | #300 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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No audible boos for the Sox at their home opener, and Pedroia is fun to wach when he gets on a roll. So they won't go winless this season, we know that much.
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