Werewolf CXXXI: Lone Wolf - Against the Darklords GAME OVER, EVERYBODY WINS - Page 6

The Jackal · 05-03-2011, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zinto

I am still not really sure what to make of the fact there was not move to try and save DT yesterday but how late it happened could it have been that there was no other wolves online or only one other wolf online who felt he couldn't move the vote without damning both himself and DT.

That was some late movement to bury DT. If anyone was trying to save him it probably came with earlier votes. Even if there were wolves online to try and save DT, it's not a terrible thing to just cut a wolf loose on day one, rather than have people later find out he is a wolf and immediately draw attention to a late saving vote.

Narcizo · 05-03-2011, 04:13 PM

Hmm. I finding the votes on CrimsonFox a bit weird but then again I would be really doubtful about things if everyone seemed to be following my line of thinking about DV voters. Don't really know what to think at the moment - roll a imaginary three-sided dice and I'd go along with it. JAG seems to be making sense to me and I'm still having a hard time seeing two wolves on the block day one so I'm going to stay where I am.

The Jackal · 05-03-2011, 04:22 PM

I'm struggling to decide where to put my vote. JAG's vote from yesterday looks the worst but I haven't gotten a terribly wolfy vibe from him, though he knows what he's doing.

CF's vote on CR (which i followed on day one) struck me as one that might be wolf on wolf at the time, though with DT having 3 at that point I kind of doubt they'd try and distract by throwing a different wolf into the mix. It's possible he was trying to throw in another candidate for distraction, but I don't find it a terribly unvillagerly vote.

Bug's vote on DV was fairly identical to mine as far as situation and timing, giving a different candidate two votes when DT had three. I understand that looks bad now that DT came out wolf, but it would've been a hard sell to keep piling on to that run on DT day one with no info, and with him not even having arrived yet. Bug's posts have definitely pinged me the most out of the folks on the block today.

Then we get to CR, who put a third vote on DV to tie him with mckerney and DT in the lead. Even though JAG's vote looks potentially worse, and CR can make a case for not needing to vote DT out of self defense with a fair amount of time left, the fact that DT came up wolf and that CR avoided him does ring a few bells. Now, CR didn't know he was going to be in the running at the end, but his avoidance of DT is there. The likelihood of two wolves on the block on day one is small, but not that small. We're not sure how many wolves there are, and I've definitely seen it happen before.

I think we've got a couple of good options here, though this is from very limited info. Should have another useful day of voting after this seemingly close race.

For now I'll stick with my vote from yesterday, and keep an eye on the happenings.

VOTE CHIEF RUM

Zinto · 05-03-2011, 04:39 PM

I know that everyone keeps saying that Jags vote looks the worst and here is something else to think about him maybe being a wolf last game Autumn took about 3 posts to figure out he was a wolf. Autumn also said he has been pretty good at figuring out Jag is a wolf in other games so Autumn being the night kill is interesting. I definitely am not putting my vote on Jag today but this is something to think about going forward.

Danny · 05-03-2011, 05:23 PM

Catching up, I plan to help bag us another wolf today.

Danny · 05-03-2011, 05:28 PM

I still think it's more likely we did not have more than one wolf on the block, so I don't think I'll be voting CR. I know Hoops had the opposite thoughts, but it's very risky for a wolf to try and save him that late and it's quite possible the wolves who were around already had their votes in a place that couldn't be easily switched.

hoopsguy · 05-03-2011, 05:47 PM

Danny, my thoughts on it were primarily driven by the vote that DT cast in that spot. It made me more leery of the other two people he could have voted for instead of DV.

I'm trying to wrap up a work issue before having to leave for the day, so I can get some analysis/thoughts in here. But realistically, I'm likely stuck until later in the day again like I was yesterday ... posting after I get my kid in bed for the evening.

Chief Rum · 05-03-2011, 06:01 PM

Hmm, I seem to have drawn plenty of attention. I can see some of the reasoning,b ut I also see a lot of you filling in what you don't know with assumptions of my intentions that, really, are very much reaches.

Anyone who thinks a vote made more than five hours before deadline is intended to save a wolf is deluding themselves, especially in a tight three-four person race with several votes remaining to be made.

My vote for DV yesterday was exactly what I said it was--an attempt to set up a vote that would provide us with meaning down the road. To the point of my vote, Day One was a whole bunch of nothing votes with none of us knowing a dern thing. I was only extending the field of lead candidates (and increasing the odds of getting a wolf in the group) by elevating a third player to the lead group in DV.

Unforutnately, I am unable to be around at the deadline on Monday's, due to my second job, so I couldn't be around to particpate in all that at the end.

Zinto · 05-03-2011, 06:11 PM

I am not sure where I want to go with this vote since none of the candidates are really jumping out at me. I need to place a vote now since I am not sure when I will be back on today though.

Vote Crimson

Danny · 05-03-2011, 06:33 PM

Vote Thomkal

I'd like to see Thomkal as a candidate.

Danny · 05-03-2011, 06:34 PM

Thomkal was the first vote of the day and I have a hard time believing that a wolf doesn't jump on their with a second vote if Thomkal were a villager.

Danny · 05-03-2011, 06:36 PM

Further, Thomkal initially had a vote on Narcizo, but switched to Mckerney not long after DV became a prime candidate.

Also looking back the day 1 vote pattern, I see where Hoops is coming from and I could see CR possibly being a wolf.

Danny · 05-03-2011, 06:38 PM

Also, I think focusing specifically on DV voters is a mistake. We already know one wolf voted DV and wolves tend to spread their vote. I'd say there is at least as good of odds as one of the three Mckerney voters being a wolf as one of the four remaining DV voters.

Chief Rum · 05-03-2011, 06:46 PM

It's actually just as if not more likely that there is a wolf voter on me.

Danny · 05-03-2011, 06:50 PM

I agree with that, but with Mckerney it's a 1 in 3, with you it's a 1 in 4. I also went with Thomkal for the other reasons I mentioned, especially him not getting a second vote. He was a strong candidate for votes and yet no wolf puts a second vote in all of this time if he's a villager? Possible, but it's something decent to go on day 2 along with the other factors.

mauchow · 05-03-2011, 06:57 PM

vote bhhloy

just a hunch. i can definitely change if i see somethin else. if i get baby to sleep soon i'll try to explain hunch a little. nothin more than a small feeling really.

CrimsonFox · 05-03-2011, 07:00 PM

Had to work today. Just got home. Catching up.

Chief Rum · 05-03-2011, 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

I agree with that, but with Mckerney it's a 1 in 3, with you it's a 1 in 4. I also went with Thomkal for the other reasons I mentioned, especially him not getting a second vote. He was a strong candidate for votes and yet no wolf puts a second vote in all of this time if he's a villager? Possible, but it's something decent to go on day 2 along with the other factors.

Yeah, but the voters on me still deserve a mention as possible wolves. You're right that, purely on odds, it's more likely to catch a wolf out of a choice of three than it is a choice of four, but you didn't even mention that a wolf could theoretically be as likely to put a vote on me as on mckerney.

I assume that has nothing to do with the number of voters and more to do with you leaning toward thinking I am a wolf. You're wrong there, though, and ignorign a potential pool of wolves as a result.

CrimsonFox · 05-03-2011, 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Anyone who thinks a vote made more than five hours before deadline is intended to save a wolf is deluding themselves, especially in a tight three-four person race with several votes remaining to be made.

I was just going to say this to Lathum.

Danny · 05-03-2011, 07:20 PM

Actually, I do not lean towards thinking you're a wolf and have generally expressed that. It actually was more about the odds and the fact that I liked Thomkal as a candidate in general.

CrimsonFox · 05-03-2011, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

With a decent number of people on the block already CF throws out a vote for CR under the pretense of CR being quiet. This strikes me as an easy way to deflect attention from DT and further spread things out.

VOTE CF

Never said that at all about why I voted chief. And as Chief Rum just said, the thought that as a wolf I would deflect people away from someone with a day one morning vote is silly. Now if the village just happened to have 2-4 wolves up there with a vote on day 1, then me as a wolf voting a villager chief would be a deflection. Or perhaps the voters that jumped on chief after I put my one vote out.

Chief Rum · 05-03-2011, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Also looking back the day 1 vote pattern, I see where Hoops is coming from and I could see CR possibly being a wolf.

I guess I am getting mixed signals then.

You're right, though, in that we're not talking some broad pronouncement.

I am undecided on Thomkal, but I don't see much value in adding him now at this point with the other candidates we have up. I would also say the same to mau's vote.

Lathum · 05-03-2011, 07:26 PM

There is a big difference between saving a wolf 5 hours before deadline and making a vote to steer away from a wolf that may be gaining some traction.

CrimsonFox · 05-03-2011, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zinto

I am not sure where I want to go with this vote since none of the candidates are really jumping out at me. I need to place a vote now since I am not sure when I will be back on today though.

Vote Crimson

As I said Zinto and Lathum are the only DT voters worth looking at and...well, now I am shouting that.

Danny · 05-03-2011, 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I guess I am getting mixed signals then.

You're right, though, in that we're not talking some broad pronouncement.

I am undecided on Thomkal, but I don't see much value in adding him now at this point with the other candidates we have up. I would also say the same to mau's vote.

Thomkal has two votes, I believe only CF has more than he does. He's not a secondary candidate at this point. And my post was more putting you back into the possibly being a wolf after I said that I felt you probably weren't. So basically you went from very slight trust, to back in the middle with everyone else.

Lathum · 05-03-2011, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Sorting out my skills. Throwing a vote out. First name on the "Tardy 7" list.

VOTE CHIEF RUM.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Never said that at all about why I voted chief. And as Chief Rum just said, the thought that as a wolf I would deflect people away from someone with a day one morning vote is silly. Now if the village just happened to have 2-4 wolves up there with a vote on day 1, then me as a wolf voting a villager chief would be a deflection. Or perhaps the voters that jumped on chief after I put my one vote out.

...

Danny · 05-03-2011, 07:29 PM

Actually it looks like CF 3, Mrbug 3, Thomkal 2 and CR 2.

CrimsonFox · 05-03-2011, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

...

and where do you see the word quiet in there, smart guy.

Danny · 05-03-2011, 07:36 PM

I feel even better about my Thomkal vote as time passes.

mauchow · 05-03-2011, 07:40 PM

unvote bhhloy
vote thomkal

I also had a gut feeling on thomkal.

mauchow · 05-03-2011, 07:41 PM

We'll make things more interesting with this vote now that I know what the tally actually is.

Chief Rum · 05-03-2011, 07:48 PM

Well, now that I see thomkal actually had two, and now has added a thrid, I have less of an issue with Danny's vote.

I'm still uncertain how much I buy Danny's reasoning, though. Not that it doesn't have nalue, but rightnow I lean more toward some others there.

JAG · 05-03-2011, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Thomkal was the first vote of the day and I have a hard time believing that a wolf doesn't jump on their with a second vote if Thomkal were a villager.

That's an interesting point I hadn't considered. I'm glad you made it past D1 this go-around.

While I understand your point re: DV voters shouldn't necessarily be the only candidates today, I think it's reasonable there's a wolf there and that DT tagged along knowing at least they wouldn't move their vote (though I doubt more than one). I can eliminate myself and I feel reasonably good about Narc, so that leaves a 50-50 choice for me. Add to that each of those two have some other reasonable basis in vote other than just wolves spread out and I lean towards one of them being the best play for me today...though you're tempting me with Thomkal because I agree it's hard to figure if there was a wolf between Bug and CR that no wolf would've upped Thomkal.

Danny · 05-03-2011, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

That's an interesting point I hadn't considered. I'm glad you made it past D1 this go-around.

While I understand your point re: DV voters shouldn't necessarily be the only candidates today, I think it's reasonable there's a wolf there and that DT tagged along knowing at least they wouldn't move their vote (though I doubt more than one). I can eliminate myself and I feel reasonably good about Narc, so that leaves a 50-50 choice for me. Add to that each of those two have some other reasonable basis in vote other than just wolves spread out and I lean towards one of them being the best play for me today...though you're tempting me with Thomkal because I agree it's hard to figure if there was a wolf between Bug and CR that no wolf would've upped Thomkal.

And I can understand that thinking as a DV voter as that limits it down to three. I also generally feel ok about Narciszo so far, however he hasn't been a wolf since he started playing again, so I really have no idea how he plays as a wolf.

bhlloy · 05-03-2011, 08:28 PM

I do feel quietly confident about the DV voters, because DT jumped on him rather than CR. I'm not sure the early vote before DT even had anybody on him is that significant. So really, it's which one of CR, Bug or JAG has raised my suspicion the most so far. I'll probably stick with Bug for now but those three seem to be solid candidates that have the potential to tell us a lot about day 1...

I have to say Zinto is pinging me a bit as well, a second vote on a wolf on day 1 is a somewhat common tactic and DT wasn't in danger at all until 20 mins before deadline, so it's possible he just missed his chance to move it off or didn't think it was worth the risk. Of everyone, just ignoring voting history, his behavior is standing out to me the most. Metagamey reason for setting up the DT vote on day 1 and then a "nothing stands out so I'm just going to pick one and won't be back until after deadline" today. Just a hunch/feeling that I might want to explore some in the days to come. But definitely better candidates for today.

Danny · 05-03-2011, 08:34 PM

I believe it's

3 Thomkal
3 Mr Bug
3 Crimson Fox
2 Chief Rum

Danny · 05-03-2011, 08:34 PM

Oh and JAG 2

Zinto · 05-03-2011, 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I have to say Zinto is pinging me a bit as well, a second vote on a wolf on day 1 is a somewhat common tactic and DT wasn't in danger at all until 20 mins before deadline, so it's possible he just missed his chance to move it off or didn't think it was worth the risk. Of everyone, just ignoring voting history, his behavior is standing out to me the most. Metagamey reason for setting up the DT vote on day 1 and then a "nothing stands out so I'm just going to pick one and won't be back until after deadline" today. Just a hunch/feeling that I might want to explore some in the days to come. But definitely better candidates for today.

I always give you a wolf vibe

Zinto · 05-03-2011, 08:38 PM

We are missing four votes then right? I am debating on moving my vote since I do not like the three way tie we have right now.

bhlloy · 05-03-2011, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zinto

I always give you a wolf vibe

hehe quite possibly, people play the game different ways and people interpret that in different ways

Thomkal · 05-03-2011, 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Further, Thomkal initially had a vote on Narcizo, but switched to Mckerney not long after DV became a prime candidate.

Also looking back the day 1 vote pattern, I see where Hoops is coming from and I could see CR possibly being a wolf.

And as I already explained Danny-I switched my vote because I was the only one on Narcizo at the time, and after last game where I was viewed as suspicious because I did not move my vote in the same exact situation, I decided to move my vote this time to one of those in contention for the lynch. It was a perfectly legit move done by all of us so early on day 1 in every game, it just turned out looking bad because of the timing combined with DT revealed as wolf. I understand why that vote is viewed suspiciously, but I am not an agent of the darklords.

hoopsguy · 05-03-2011, 08:58 PM

Right now I'm heavily leaning towards a vote on JAG.
1.) Initial vote on Dwardz = neutral
2.) Vote in post #103 breaks the 3-3-3-3 tie by going to DV = seems pretty bad, will be considerably worse if there were multiple wolves in the mix
3.) Questioning the vote I made on DT at point where there is still time to get me to move or other not to follow = not helping the cause

None of these are capital offenses; this was day one. But collectively they don't speak to a day of being on the right side of a vote.

From there, there is the night-kill on Autumn. As Zinto pointed out, that probably isn't the best way to make JAG look good after last game when Autumn had a pretty strong read on him as a wolf.

Then there is the question of "is JAG playing his normal villager game?" My initial thought on that is "no, not so much, particularly as someone who is under some pressure today". I know when I'm under pressure I normally respond by digging in hard to stay alive, especially as a villager. I don't feel like I've seen that from JAG today. My perception is that I've seen a guy trying not to get lynched more than I've seen an aggressive villager on the block.

I like having JAG as a villager on my side. If I had as strong a vibe about another candidate I would probably go for that person in hopes that JAG got cleared/damned later in the game but I'm concerned that we might not have a wealth of scans in this game based on the way the powers played out. So I'm not convinced we've got the luxury of staying away from a candidate in hopes that a scan will clear it up for us.

VOTE JAG

mckerney · 05-03-2011, 08:59 PM

Vote Thomkal

hoopsguy · 05-03-2011, 08:59 PM

I talked myself into casting the vote over the course of typing that ... was originally going to say "I'll give him a day" but didn't stay with that line of thought while completing the post.

I'm willing to be talked out of this one, but it may need to be sooner rather than later. My kid is running behind on bedtime schedule, so I might not might not make it back before the deadline.

JAG · 05-03-2011, 09:06 PM

Where do you get I haven't been that aggressive? I think I made my case for candidates best appeal to me, but I didn't see a need to go full bore out considering I was operating from a position of weakness with my poor voting record.', aside from people already voting those candidates.

Re: Autumn, I can't dispute how bad it looks for me, but if I were a wolf, after last game, there's no way I would think I could get away with that without scrutiny. Also, he didnt call me out as a wolf D1 like GE did last game. Other than that, not much I can add.

hoopsguy · 05-03-2011, 09:09 PM

JAG, I'm going through posts again now with my last couple of minutes before having to head out for a few. I want to either reinforce my vibes or else discard them in this exercise.

In the meantime, here is the vote log I see so far:
186 - Dward votes Thomkal
205 - JAG votes CR 1-1 Thomkal/CR
206 - CF votes Bug 1-1-1 Thomkal/CR/Bug
209 - Narcizo votes Bug 2-1-1 Bug over Thomkal/CR
213 - PF votes JAG 2-1-1-1 Bug over Thomkal/CR/JAG
214 - Thomkal votes JAG 2-2-1-1 Bug/JAG over Thomkal/CR
220 - Lathum votes CF 2-2-1-1-1 Bug/JAG over Thomkal/CR/CF
236 - bhlloy votes Bug 3-2-1-1-1 Bug over JAG over Thomkal/CR/CF
239 - Bug votes CF 3-2-2-1-1 Bug over JAG/CF over Thomkal/CR
253 - Jackal votes CR 3-2-2-2-1 Bug over JAG/CF/CR over Thomkal
259 - Zinto votes CF 3-3-2-2-1 Bug/CF over JAG/CR over Thomkal
260 - Danny votes Thomkal 3-3-2-2-2 Bug/CF over JAG/CR/Thomkal
266 - mau votes bhlloy 3-3-2-2-2-1 Bug/CF over JAG/CR/Thomkal over bhlloy
280 - mau unvotes bhlloy, votes thomkal 3-3-3-2-2-1 Bug/CF/Thom over JAG/CR over bhlloy
292 - hoops votes JAG 3-3-3-3-2-1 Bug/CF/Thom/JAG over CR over bhlloy
293 - mckern votes Thomkal 4-3-3-3-2-1 Thom over Bug/CF/JAG over CR over bhlloy

MrBug708 · 05-03-2011, 09:09 PM

Class finished early so I'll be around for the deadline

MrBug708 · 05-03-2011, 09:13 PM

That's al ot of Bug

Thomkal · 05-03-2011, 09:14 PM

So then how do I convince you that I am not an agent of the darklords?

hoopsguy · 05-03-2011, 09:15 PM

OK, I'll agree with your point, JAG - you've been active in the thread, just not having a whole lot of company (self included) throughout the day.

So let me ask one more question - why Chief over Bug? You even asked Bug about his "self defense" vote where he seemed to somewhat throw it away.

05-03-2011, 06:01 PM	#258
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Hmm, I seem to have drawn plenty of attention. I can see some of the reasoning,b ut I also see a lot of you filling in what you don't know with assumptions of my intentions that, really, are very much reaches. Anyone who thinks a vote made more than five hours before deadline is intended to save a wolf is deluding themselves, especially in a tight three-four person race with several votes remaining to be made. My vote for DV yesterday was exactly what I said it was--an attempt to set up a vote that would provide us with meaning down the road. To the point of my vote, Day One was a whole bunch of nothing votes with none of us knowing a dern thing. I was only extending the field of lead candidates (and increasing the odds of getting a wolf in the group) by elevating a third player to the lead group in DV. Unforutnately, I am unable to be around at the deadline on Monday's, due to my second job, so I couldn't be around to particpate in all that at the end. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

05-03-2011, 06:46 PM	#264
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	It's actually just as if not more likely that there is a wolf voter on me. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

05-03-2011, 07:48 PM	#282
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Well, now that I see thomkal actually had two, and now has added a thrid, I have less of an issue with Danny's vote. I'm still uncertain how much I buy Danny's reasoning, though. Not that it doesn't have nalue, but rightnow I lean more toward some others there. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

05-03-2011, 04:13 PM	#252
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	Hmm. I finding the votes on CrimsonFox a bit weird but then again I would be really doubtful about things if everyone seemed to be following my line of thinking about DV voters. Don't really know what to think at the moment - roll a imaginary three-sided dice and I'd go along with it. JAG seems to be making sense to me and I'm still having a hard time seeing two wolves on the block day one so I'm going to stay where I am.

05-03-2011, 04:22 PM	#253
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I'm struggling to decide where to put my vote. JAG's vote from yesterday looks the worst but I haven't gotten a terribly wolfy vibe from him, though he knows what he's doing. CF's vote on CR (which i followed on day one) struck me as one that might be wolf on wolf at the time, though with DT having 3 at that point I kind of doubt they'd try and distract by throwing a different wolf into the mix. It's possible he was trying to throw in another candidate for distraction, but I don't find it a terribly unvillagerly vote. Bug's vote on DV was fairly identical to mine as far as situation and timing, giving a different candidate two votes when DT had three. I understand that looks bad now that DT came out wolf, but it would've been a hard sell to keep piling on to that run on DT day one with no info, and with him not even having arrived yet. Bug's posts have definitely pinged me the most out of the folks on the block today. Then we get to CR, who put a third vote on DV to tie him with mckerney and DT in the lead. Even though JAG's vote looks potentially worse, and CR can make a case for not needing to vote DT out of self defense with a fair amount of time left, the fact that DT came up wolf and that CR avoided him does ring a few bells. Now, CR didn't know he was going to be in the running at the end, but his avoidance of DT is there. The likelihood of two wolves on the block on day one is small, but not that small. We're not sure how many wolves there are, and I've definitely seen it happen before. I think we've got a couple of good options here, though this is from very limited info. Should have another useful day of voting after this seemingly close race. For now I'll stick with my vote from yesterday, and keep an eye on the happenings. VOTE CHIEF RUM

05-03-2011, 04:39 PM	#254
Zinto College Starter Join Date: Jan 2011	I know that everyone keeps saying that Jags vote looks the worst and here is something else to think about him maybe being a wolf last game Autumn took about 3 posts to figure out he was a wolf. Autumn also said he has been pretty good at figuring out Jag is a wolf in other games so Autumn being the night kill is interesting. I definitely am not putting my vote on Jag today but this is something to think about going forward.

05-03-2011, 05:23 PM	#255
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Catching up, I plan to help bag us another wolf today.

05-03-2011, 05:28 PM	#256
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I still think it's more likely we did not have more than one wolf on the block, so I don't think I'll be voting CR. I know Hoops had the opposite thoughts, but it's very risky for a wolf to try and save him that late and it's quite possible the wolves who were around already had their votes in a place that couldn't be easily switched.

05-03-2011, 05:47 PM	#257
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Danny, my thoughts on it were primarily driven by the vote that DT cast in that spot. It made me more leery of the other two people he could have voted for instead of DV. I'm trying to wrap up a work issue before having to leave for the day, so I can get some analysis/thoughts in here. But realistically, I'm likely stuck until later in the day again like I was yesterday ... posting after I get my kid in bed for the evening.

05-03-2011, 06:11 PM	#259
Zinto College Starter Join Date: Jan 2011	I am not sure where I want to go with this vote since none of the candidates are really jumping out at me. I need to place a vote now since I am not sure when I will be back on today though. Vote Crimson

05-03-2011, 06:33 PM	#260
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Vote Thomkal I'd like to see Thomkal as a candidate.

05-03-2011, 06:34 PM	#261
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Thomkal was the first vote of the day and I have a hard time believing that a wolf doesn't jump on their with a second vote if Thomkal were a villager.

05-03-2011, 06:36 PM	#262
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Further, Thomkal initially had a vote on Narcizo, but switched to Mckerney not long after DV became a prime candidate. Also looking back the day 1 vote pattern, I see where Hoops is coming from and I could see CR possibly being a wolf.

05-03-2011, 06:38 PM	#263
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Also, I think focusing specifically on DV voters is a mistake. We already know one wolf voted DV and wolves tend to spread their vote. I'd say there is at least as good of odds as one of the three Mckerney voters being a wolf as one of the four remaining DV voters.

05-03-2011, 06:50 PM	#265
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I agree with that, but with Mckerney it's a 1 in 3, with you it's a 1 in 4. I also went with Thomkal for the other reasons I mentioned, especially him not getting a second vote. He was a strong candidate for votes and yet no wolf puts a second vote in all of this time if he's a villager? Possible, but it's something decent to go on day 2 along with the other factors.

05-03-2011, 06:57 PM	#266
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	vote bhhloy just a hunch. i can definitely change if i see somethin else. if i get baby to sleep soon i'll try to explain hunch a little. nothin more than a small feeling really.

05-03-2011, 07:00 PM	#267
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	Had to work today. Just got home. Catching up.

05-03-2011, 07:20 PM	#270
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Actually, I do not lean towards thinking you're a wolf and have generally expressed that. It actually was more about the odds and the fact that I liked Thomkal as a candidate in general.

05-03-2011, 07:26 PM	#273
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	There is a big difference between saving a wolf 5 hours before deadline and making a vote to steer away from a wolf that may be gaining some traction.

05-03-2011, 07:29 PM	#277
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Actually it looks like CF 3, Mrbug 3, Thomkal 2 and CR 2.

05-03-2011, 07:36 PM	#279
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I feel even better about my Thomkal vote as time passes.

05-03-2011, 07:40 PM	#280
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	unvote bhhloy vote thomkal I also had a gut feeling on thomkal.

05-03-2011, 07:41 PM	#281
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	We'll make things more interesting with this vote now that I know what the tally actually is.

05-03-2011, 08:28 PM	#285
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	I do feel quietly confident about the DV voters, because DT jumped on him rather than CR. I'm not sure the early vote before DT even had anybody on him is that significant. So really, it's which one of CR, Bug or JAG has raised my suspicion the most so far. I'll probably stick with Bug for now but those three seem to be solid candidates that have the potential to tell us a lot about day 1... I have to say Zinto is pinging me a bit as well, a second vote on a wolf on day 1 is a somewhat common tactic and DT wasn't in danger at all until 20 mins before deadline, so it's possible he just missed his chance to move it off or didn't think it was worth the risk. Of everyone, just ignoring voting history, his behavior is standing out to me the most. Metagamey reason for setting up the DT vote on day 1 and then a "nothing stands out so I'm just going to pick one and won't be back until after deadline" today. Just a hunch/feeling that I might want to explore some in the days to come. But definitely better candidates for today.

05-03-2011, 08:34 PM	#286
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I believe it's 3 Thomkal 3 Mr Bug 3 Crimson Fox 2 Chief Rum

05-03-2011, 08:34 PM	#287
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Oh and JAG 2

05-03-2011, 08:38 PM	#289
Zinto College Starter Join Date: Jan 2011	We are missing four votes then right? I am debating on moving my vote since I do not like the three way tie we have right now.

05-03-2011, 08:58 PM	#292
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Right now I'm heavily leaning towards a vote on JAG. 1.) Initial vote on Dwardz = neutral 2.) Vote in post #103 breaks the 3-3-3-3 tie by going to DV = seems pretty bad, will be considerably worse if there were multiple wolves in the mix 3.) Questioning the vote I made on DT at point where there is still time to get me to move or other not to follow = not helping the cause None of these are capital offenses; this was day one. But collectively they don't speak to a day of being on the right side of a vote. From there, there is the night-kill on Autumn. As Zinto pointed out, that probably isn't the best way to make JAG look good after last game when Autumn had a pretty strong read on him as a wolf. Then there is the question of "is JAG playing his normal villager game?" My initial thought on that is "no, not so much, particularly as someone who is under some pressure today". I know when I'm under pressure I normally respond by digging in hard to stay alive, especially as a villager. I don't feel like I've seen that from JAG today. My perception is that I've seen a guy trying not to get lynched more than I've seen an aggressive villager on the block. I like having JAG as a villager on my side. If I had as strong a vibe about another candidate I would probably go for that person in hopes that JAG got cleared/damned later in the game but I'm concerned that we might not have a wealth of scans in this game based on the way the powers played out. So I'm not convinced we've got the luxury of staying away from a candidate in hopes that a scan will clear it up for us. VOTE JAG

05-03-2011, 08:59 PM	#293
mckerney Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000	Vote Thomkal

05-03-2011, 08:59 PM	#294
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I talked myself into casting the vote over the course of typing that ... was originally going to say "I'll give him a day" but didn't stay with that line of thought while completing the post. I'm willing to be talked out of this one, but it may need to be sooner rather than later. My kid is running behind on bedtime schedule, so I might not might not make it back before the deadline.

05-03-2011, 09:06 PM	#295
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Where do you get I haven't been that aggressive? I think I made my case for candidates best appeal to me, but I didn't see a need to go full bore out considering I was operating from a position of weakness with my poor voting record.', aside from people already voting those candidates. Re: Autumn, I can't dispute how bad it looks for me, but if I were a wolf, after last game, there's no way I would think I could get away with that without scrutiny. Also, he didnt call me out as a wolf D1 like GE did last game. Other than that, not much I can add.

05-03-2011, 09:09 PM	#296
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	JAG, I'm going through posts again now with my last couple of minutes before having to head out for a few. I want to either reinforce my vibes or else discard them in this exercise. In the meantime, here is the vote log I see so far: 186 - Dward votes Thomkal 205 - JAG votes CR 1-1 Thomkal/CR 206 - CF votes Bug 1-1-1 Thomkal/CR/Bug 209 - Narcizo votes Bug 2-1-1 Bug over Thomkal/CR 213 - PF votes JAG 2-1-1-1 Bug over Thomkal/CR/JAG 214 - Thomkal votes JAG 2-2-1-1 Bug/JAG over Thomkal/CR 220 - Lathum votes CF 2-2-1-1-1 Bug/JAG over Thomkal/CR/CF 236 - bhlloy votes Bug 3-2-1-1-1 Bug over JAG over Thomkal/CR/CF 239 - Bug votes CF 3-2-2-1-1 Bug over JAG/CF over Thomkal/CR 253 - Jackal votes CR 3-2-2-2-1 Bug over JAG/CF/CR over Thomkal 259 - Zinto votes CF 3-3-2-2-1 Bug/CF over JAG/CR over Thomkal 260 - Danny votes Thomkal 3-3-2-2-2 Bug/CF over JAG/CR/Thomkal 266 - mau votes bhlloy 3-3-2-2-2-1 Bug/CF over JAG/CR/Thomkal over bhlloy 280 - mau unvotes bhlloy, votes thomkal 3-3-3-2-2-1 Bug/CF/Thom over JAG/CR over bhlloy 292 - hoops votes JAG 3-3-3-3-2-1 Bug/CF/Thom/JAG over CR over bhlloy 293 - mckern votes Thomkal 4-3-3-3-2-1 Thom over Bug/CF/JAG over CR over bhlloy

05-03-2011, 09:09 PM	#297
MrBug708 Head Coach Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Whittier	Class finished early so I'll be around for the deadline