WW XCII Athens -- Destroyed by Wolves!

[USFLTecmo]

Marathon Runners – Two players (one villager, one wolf) will travel from one city to another instead of to Hades. They will have this ability one time (once they’ve fled a city, they will not be welcome back). This will occur automatically, but may be “turned off’ by sending me a PM. When a Marathon Runner flees a city, the city will find out that he fled, but will not learn his allegiance.

From this, I don't gather that the Marathon Runner can do it by choice, they'd have to be lynched. Pass, can you verify that?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

From this, I don't gather that the Marathon Runner can do it by choice, they'd have to be lynched. Pass, can you verify that?

That's correct.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Further notes: Abe suggested even if we're winning the city, that we should abandon Athens and declare war on Sparta. The rules clearly state that would give the abandoned city to the wolves, so that is a wolf suggestion and makes Abe look pretty bad.

That's a misquote. I said if we had WON the city, not if we are currently winning, if it were allowed without the normal stuff.

[PurdueBrad]

Well hey, other marathon runner, come on out and sign up to be lynched. You know, it won't hurt a bit and it lets everyone know I'm good and, well, that you're not.


It was worth a shot.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I don't think we have the luxury to information shop right now. We could either be 6-2 or 5-3, so (or possibly 7-1 or 6-2 if Schmidty was a wolf). I'd rather not shop for info, but try to unearth wolves. Only reason I'd vote for is the basic 50/50 he has of being a wolf, not because we get good info from him, if that makes sense.

I agree with what you're saying here - the 50/50 chance of finding a wolf is the main thing. I was just pointing out an additional consequence if the group was to decide to lynch PurdueBrad, not trying to make an argument for lynching him.

[Lathum]

I was thinking along the lines of what CR is thinking.

Anyone see a reason why our runner shouldn't out themselves?

My concern is if we lynch PB and he is good our runner is still well hidden.

If we insist our marathon runner outs himself it guarentees us a wolf kill, either tonight or tomorrow.

If they don't out themselves it elevates PB in my mind, thoughts?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Well hey, other marathon runner, come on out and sign up to be lynched. You know, it won't hurt a bit and it lets everyone know I'm good and, well, that you're not.


It was worth a shot.

Actually, the fact that this role can only be activated by lynch doesn't change much, except that instead of the other Marathon Runner choosing to flee, we will have to do a lynch after all.

But the effect is the same. Here are the two scenarios:

1. PurdueBrad is evil MR, Athens' Unknown MR is good
2. PurdueBrad is good MR, Athens' Unknown MR is evil

We know we have another Marathon Runner here, and that MR knows he is of opposite allegiance to PurdueBrad. If he is good (Scenario #1), he needs to come out now, because he knows we have a wolf in our midst, and what other possible good is the MR role? Even if he gets lynched, he just goes to Sparta, but if we lynch an evil PB, we send him to Hades.

Note: Correct, Pass? MRs only get to flee once, right, not just go back and forth? So if PB is lynched again, he goes to Hades?

If it is Scenario #2, the evil unknown MR has two options, come out or stay hidden. If he stays hidden, I am going to presume PB is a cleared villager, and recommend everyone else do the same (wolves will probably then use their nigth kill on PB tomorrow). If the evil unknown MR comes out (and I assume claims to be good), then we will vote between PB and the other MR. If PB (good in this scenario) is lynched, we will know automatically that the other MR is evil, and will lynch him on Day 3. If the MR is lynched in Scneario #2, we remove a wolf (well, off to Sparta), and we have a cleared villager in PB.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I was thinking along the lines of what CR is thinking.

Anyone see a reason why our runner shouldn't out themselves?

My concern is if we lynch PB and he is good our runner is still well hidden.

If we insist our marathon runner outs himself it guarentees us a wolf kill, either tonight or tomorrow.

If they don't out themselves it elevates PB in my mind, thoughts?

Much more succinctly put then my post above. Exactly, Lathum.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

That's a misquote. I said if we had WON the city, not if we are currently winning, if it were allowed without the normal stuff.

Nothing in the rules stated that a city that was won is safe from being handed to the wolves by a Declare War move. The only thing stated clearly is that Declaring War hands the abandoned city to the wolves.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chef Rum

Note: Correct, Pass? MRs only get to flee once, right, not just go back and forth? So if PB is lynched again, he goes to Hades?

Right.

[Chief Rum]

Leaving for my other job. I figure if we don't hear from the other MR by tonight, PB is cleared, and we can go lynch someone else.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Nothing in the rules stated that a city that was won is safe from being handed to the wolves by a Declare War move. The only thing stated clearly is that Declaring War hands the abandoned city to the wolves.

Which is why I said if Passa allowed it or was okay with it.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Leaving for my other job. I figure if we don't hear from the other MR by tonight, PB is cleared, and we can go lynch someone else.

I figure we are already there, because everyone has had a chance to check in. I know if I were the villager Marathon Runner, I would have jumped out immediately and let you know, so by my reckoning, PB is safe.

[Abe Sargent]

Damnit I accidentally clicked on the Hades thread by accident, saw a post by Schmidty, and hightailed itout of there and slapped my hand. Sorry

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Which is why I said if Passa allowed it or was okay with it.

Is this a question for me somehow?

[Abe Sargent]

we aren;t there yet, or anywhere near it, so I wasn;t worried nor do I aslk a lot fo quesitons early. I'm no question-matic.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

we aren;t there yet, or anywhere near it, so I wasn;t worried nor do I aslk a lot fo quesitons early. I'm no question-matic.

Okay, just making sure.

[hoopsguy]

A quiet day is followed up by a quiet night, it appears.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not sure how to analyze votes in this game, given that the wolves have the ability to send their own down to Hades. But I think, at least for Day 1, that I would like to assume that we lost a pair of villagers today.

Assumption #1: we started with two wolves in each location, which means that we had 7-2 starting here
Assumption #2: we lost two villagers today, making the ratio 5-2, with the introduction of PurdueBrad

So we are either at 5-3 or 6-2. One scenario is manageable, the other one puts us in a very tenuous position for Day 2.

The only villager who knows which of those two is the truth is the Marathon Runner. Obviously the wolves know where they stand. Initially I was not necessarily onboard with the popular wisdom of the Marathon Runner revealing himself (just push PB hard enough and I suspect it would be clear soon enough) but selfishly I would like to know where I stand right now.

[hoopsguy]

Abe Sargent
USFLTecmo
Lathum - potential Ethor
hoopsguy - villager (self-cleared)
MartinD
Schmidty - Hades, presumed villager by night kill
Chief Rum
TheNorm - potential Ethor
PurdueBrad - Marathoner, which one?
EagleFan - Hades, villager by lynch

So, if we are going to work with the idea that PB is cleared, then that leaves four potential candidates for vote tomorrow: Abe, USFL, MartinD, and Chief Rum.

EagleFan was hot to trot on Abe, but there is no way he could have "known" anything as a vanilla villager (or any roled villager on Day 1).

ChiefRum has played "helpful villager" in terms of discussion, which is a little out of character for him early in the game. He is usually more of a closer than a starting pitcher, to use a somewhat ill-fitting analogy.

I do not have much on USFL and MartinD, but will go through posts tomorrow morning and see if I can put together some impressions on them. I've expressed a desire in other games to go after the quiet guys rather than vocal players when I'm deadlocked. Push comes to shove, I'm leaning there at the moment. If PB = good then we have two days to get this right and I'll bet that one of our wolves is under the radar.

Heck with it, placeholder vote for now. Hope that he responds this evening (his last post suggests he will have time), as I know he doesn't have a ton of availability tomorrow. But if I/we do not rattle the cages a little bit then UTR is a pretty attractive way to play the game.

VOTE MARTIND

[Abe Sargent]

I'd rather you voted for me than a guy who won;t be around much tomorrow and already said so. That feels a bit slimy.

[hoopsguy]

We'll see if that is where it stays, Abe. But not being around and not posting should not be a path to werewolf victory either. Bottom line, his post said he would be checking in before work (2AM in CST) and he should have a chance to speak his mind. I do not feel like I'm dropping an ambush on him like the one I received last game.

[Lathum]

So no one is coming out as the marathoner, so we can assume PB is cleared at this point.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I'd rather you voted for me than a guy who won;t be around much tomorrow and already said so. That feels a bit slimy.

I refuse to give people slack for this anymore.

I'm not saying I support Hoops' vote, but people get way to much slack for not being available at the right times.

[hoopsguy]

Heading to bed, discussion to be continued tomorrow.

[Lathum]

Abe Sargent -- 2 EagleFan (152) TheNorm (155)
USFLTecmo -- 2 Chief Rum (121) MartinD (137)
EagleFan -- 4 Abe Sargent (126) hoopsguy (133) USFLTecmo (138) Lathum (139)

I am starting to wonder if there was something to TheNorm and Abe. Not only did Abe push for TheNorm to be Ephor, and TheNorm voted for Abe. That links them on a few fronts.

Now we obviously can't vote Norm, but I am wondering if Abe is the way to go today.

VOTE ABE

[MartinD]

hoops - can see your line of thinking in pointing your vote my way, as it's a good way of getting someone who hasn't posted much to get involved. You're not going to find a wolf here, though - just a non-roled villager.

This is very likely to be the last chance I'll have to get online before deadline, so I'll put a vote out there now. While going after PB gives us a 50/50 chance of finding a wolf on the surface, the refusal of the Athens marathon runner to come forward suggests that PB is the 'good' runner.

Of the others in the group, there's enough suspicion around Abe following his earlier actions to suggest that there's value in putting a bit of pressure on him.

VOTE ABE SARGENT

[Chief Rum]

Following the same path of logic as hoops, going down who's left...

Most Trusted

Chief Rum--Only guy I know is a villager for sure
PurdueBrad--Until the other MR comes out, I have to assume he's good)

Somewhat Trusted

Lathum--He's saying the right things, and they jibe with what I am saying. Plus, he's possibly the Ephor.

No Read Yet

USFLTecmo, MartinD-- Same deal, under the radar, lack of experience with them; I just can't go there yet

Slight Distrust

TherNorm-- Purely because he is another I have no read on, but he was sorta supported by a player I am less than sure about, and he may have a power (which makes him dangerous, especially for being difficult to read)

Distrust

Abe Sargent-- The overt signs are suspicious, the vote for TheNorm, not mentioning the possibility that Declaring War means giving the city to the wolves (even if I acknowledge Pass's rules on it are vague, there's no doubt there is a question, and ABe was advocating it without asking that question). All that said, my gut says he's a misunderstood villager.

hoops-- Complete gut call here. hoops has done nothing evident. But the wolves didn't choose to send him away, and he's an awfully dangerous player to leave around (yes, I know that goes for me as well). Plus, he is usually posting more and more insightful, IMO, and his game seems off to what I am used to. So my gut is pretty suspicious of hoops right now.

I am going to go with that gut for now, but I am certainly open to changing my vote.

VOTE HOOPS

[USFLTecmo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am starting to wonder if there was something to TheNorm and Abe. Not only did Abe push for TheNorm to be Ephor, and TheNorm voted for Abe. That links them on a few fronts.

Now we obviously can't vote Norm, but I am wondering if Abe is the way to go today.

VOTE ABE

I'm not following why we can't vote Norm. If he's the Ephor and bad, he can protect Abe, or he can let him go, and gain a small bit of trust with the thought pattern "hey look, he could have saved him if he had the power, but he didn't."

On the other hand, if we vote him out, and he has the Ephor power, he'd pretty much have to use it, or take it with him to Hades. We lose a villager for sure if he's a bad Ephor, but at the same time, we're gonna anyway at some point if this is the case, so we can force the issue into the open here, especially given that we've pretty much cleared PB at this point.

Of course, this is all based on him having the Ephor powers, which is a 50/50 shot, as far as I can tell.

I suppose we can always go with the "If he IS a bad Ephor, we're pretty well screwed over at this point anyway" logic and pursue something else, too.

Back around 9-10 AM Central to follow up on this. Work calls.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, with all due respect to Schmidty, I would have sent you away as a wolf. Athens is effectively a "small game" which means that there isn't much time for a wolf to try and be cute with their patterns - just take out the most threatening players (by role or game) as quickly as possible. Or at least, that is how I would play it.

I'm not shocked that I'm still alive on Day 2. I'm pretty shocked that you, me, Lathum, and Abe are all still around and kicking, however. With that group, I do not think I can assume that I've been scanned by the seer. However, I would wager that by the start of Day 3 the odds are better than 50/50 that I've been seer scanned. Just as it works against me as a wolf, I would hope that it would work for me to some small extent when I'm a villager.

[hoopsguy]

USFL - we can vote for whoever we want. The logic with the potential Ephor candidates is "why did we put them up for the duke role if we were going to vote them out the next day?"

Two people put forth candidates for the Ephors - Abe (TheNorm) and Chief Rum (first EagleFan, then Lathum). Abe is catching heat for his nomination because he provided logic for it, but Chief is getting a free pass because his selections were "random". It is entirely possible that Chief's selections were random, but none of us know that for sure.

This is one of the logic gaps that I've been wrestling with since yesterday. I'm sure I'll post on the other one at some point but for now I'm trying to make sense of the collective "groupthink" and see if I can figure out who has an agenda.

[hoopsguy]

For now,
UNVOTE MARTIND

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Actually, I am going out guns blazing. Follow along if you want to nail a wolf day one. The more I think about my theory number two the more it makes sense. Lynch Abe today. IF he turns up clean than I will even vote for myself on day two.

I don't have a strong read on most, but I think a couple things were odd: Eaglefan deciding, rather than to try self-preservation on USFL, to go after Abe, the move to put a relatively inexperienced player in the duke position (particularly because I think CR proved that if played well, it can be devastating), and because of his vote on EF. I will start the day:

voting Abe

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

I'm not following why we can't vote Norm. If he's the Ephor and bad, he can protect Abe, or he can let him go, and gain a small bit of trust with the thought pattern "hey look, he could have saved him if he had the power, but he didn't."

.

Basicly what hoops said.

We decided on 2 Ephor candidates with the agreement they would use their power on a candidate we all agreed on.

Why potentialy vote out the Ephor then, forcing them to use the power and essentialy wasting it by putting the lynch in one persons hands. Kind of defeats the purpose.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I don't have a strong read on most, but I think a couple things were odd: Eaglefan deciding, rather than to try self-preservation on USFL, to go after Abe, the move to put a relatively inexperienced player in the duke position (particularly because I think CR proved that if played well, it can be devastating), and because of his vote on EF. I will start the day:

voting Abe

My viote on EF was retalitory Day One. He voted for me, and I not having anybody better to do, voted for him. Nothign sinister there.

[Abe Sargent]

I think we've all seen this issue:

Someone on Day One or Day Two, a roleless villager, screams bloody murder at another player and claims they are a wolf up and down. Then that roleless villager dies. They had no more information than the rest of the village does, but the village starts to believe them, because they are the only person who is confirmed good, and so they go where that person said to go, even though they have no special knowledge,. Instead, the village votes out another villager and they are farther behind the 8 ball.

EF was pissed off and thought me a wolf because he didn;t like my logic behind voting for an impartial person duke, because he might be new to this board, which i see as a positive in a duke because he's impartial.

Like my logic or not, I don;t lead from out front that far as a wolf. Never havenot once. "But Abe, perhaps this time..." Nope. Never do it. I'm not comfortable being out in front as the wolf, only as a villager, because if I goof up, its not like I'm hurting my people or anything.

I made a vote and explained it. Whether you like my logic or not, it is my own and I stand by it. I don;t give a rat's ass if you like it or not, but I prefer my duke to be as impartial as possible. No tunnel vision for TheNorm. No worries about being too close for TheNorm. Plus, let's be hoest folks, suppose we accidentally gave the duke to a wolf. Would you rather wolf Lathum have the duke role, or wold TheNorm. Seriously, how was my logic that off?

EF may have had a stick up his butt about it, but he had nothing. I'm tired of discussing this dumb ass point. I will no longer talk about my vote for TheNorm, or why I chose him. Like, don;t like, vote me off, whatever, but I;m tired of this point.

[Passacaglia]

Morning vote count:

MartinD -- 0
Abe Sargent -- 3 Lathum (276) MartinD (277) PurdueBrad (283)
hoopsguy -- 1 Chief Rum (278)

[Abe Sargent]

THis is purely SD because I'm not getting a bad vibe from him.


vote hoops

[PurdueBrad]

Sorry Abe, just going off of what I saw in the brief read through.

[PurdueBrad]

Oh Abe, now your in my wheelhouse too! Everyone knows how much I love voting for Hoops! Oh man, what to do. Abe or Hoops, Hoops or Abe...hmmmm, it failed the last two times I voted for one of you.

[PurdueBrad]

My vote will definitely, unless some greater evidence is thrown out there, going to be on one of the four that voted for EF. I'm with Abe right now but that could change. I am surprised to see Abe, Hoops, and Lathum, all vets, all in the same place on day 1 and all still alive (compared to the Schmidty night kill).

[hoopsguy]

Well, I've got a couple of changes today from what I planned. First, the company I'm visiting has tightened up their firewall. So I'm not going to be posting much from here. Second, I've got a co-worker shadowing me. Another reason that I won't be posting much.

I'm far from convinced that Abe is our wolf - if anything, I tilt towards him as villager - but I'm not going to have time to really work through alternate candidates. So Abe and I are both self-defense votes, which ends up escalating a confrontation involving at least one villager and very possibly two.

I'll try to come back and see if there has been any other movement, but no promises.

VOTE ABE SARGENT

[Abe Sargent]

That one I totally get.

[Abe Sargent]

Alright, hold on for a second those who are here, I;m about to reveal.

[USFLTecmo]

Topping it off to avoid a potential wolf that's on Abe now unvoting right at the deadline and getting two for one. Very willing to be swayed on this, though.

VOTE ABE

[Abe Sargent]

I am out from 11:20 until 1:10 or so, amd I have meetings at 1:30, 2-3;3), and 3:3-0 until 5,. I may not have muych time later to do this.

[USFLTecmo]

You have my attention.

[Abe Sargent]

Alright, here is why voting for me is really bad for the village.

A). I;m a villager. Math is probably 6-2 right now (assumption : Schmidity is not a wolf and neither is PB). Vote for me, successful night kill, makes it 4-2 and it is very hard for the village to win from there.

B). Unlike normal lynches, you will get no info from me. I am a Phoenix. I know you may say, well, 50/50 shot right, but I am a villager, and you will not know. Ergo, you will not be able to use any info from killing me to further the village's agenda. So, you will be looking at 4-2, and without any additional information that you can use, it will be like Day Two all over again.

Now, you may be saying, 50/50 chance of getting a wolf, lynch Abe! that math holds for PB and no one should vote him, since he is likely villager. Sparta made the coin flip mistake yesterday and it hurt them.

All I can say is that no way am I a wolf, and it would make sense that I am a villager. Passa said that roles were somewhat random and we can;t know exactly how he assigned which one of each pair to each city. However, would it not make sense to have the wolf MR in one city with the village Phoenix, and vice versa? Again, Passa cannot tell us this for sure, because then we'd only have to prove one in order to know the other three, but that seems likely to me.

So, I am a villager and a phoenix. I suspect you will likely vote me off anyway, but that would be bad for the village both ways, as I have described above. I suspect I have too many votes on me, and people will say, Enhh, it's too much work to try to find real wolves, I;m just going to stick with the supposed 50/50 and move on.

Anyway, have fun all.

[Lathum]

Abe, the rules say nothing about one of the Phoenixs being a wolf and one of them not being a wolf.

Where do you get the 50/50 from?

[Lathum]

Pass, can you clarify please?