NFL 2023 Offseason/Free Agency/Draft Thread

[Ryche]

Baltimore already has a pro bowl quarterback sitting on their bench.

[QuikSand]

Sheriff’s deputies in Cincinnati reportedly entered Joe Mixon’s home this morning as they investigated a report of shots being fired in connection to an injured juvenile https://t.co/r6CQ0bA3QD

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) March 7, 2023

...about that contract...

[Lathum]

Christ. It is being reported shots were fired at the teens next door playing nerf wars. Unknown who fired the shots. WTF?

[QuikSand]

https://twitter.com/search?q=mixon&src=typed_query

i can't recommend the Twitter search on "Joe Mixon" enough right now

[Lathum]

one of my best friends lives in the same town. A few of us have been having a fun group text exchange.

[Ksyrup]

Sounds like the Ravens are calling Jackson's bluff. Non-exclusive tag. Go negotiate with other teams and see if they give you what you want. If they do, we'll take the 2 1st rounders and move on.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Sounds like the Ravens are calling Jackson's bluff. Non-exclusive tag. Go negotiate with other teams and see if they give you what you want. If they do, we'll take the 2 1st rounders and move on.

or, if the offer you accept from the other team seems reasonable, we'll reserve the right to match it

not stupid, really... but may burn the bridge with him

[GrantDawg]

Let's see how the Falcons can screw this up.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

or, if the offer you accept from the other team seems reasonable, we'll reserve the right to match it

not stupid, really... but may burn the bridge with him

I don't know the delta between their offer and his, but I'm guessing theirs is way closer to a "reasonable" offer he gets from another team, and it's one he could have gotten from the Ravens without it getting this far and doing a bit of negotiating before now.

Any way this ends now, the Ravens are basically throwing it back in his face that what he wanted all along was unreasonable and they're publicly outing him as the reason why they haven't done a deal yet. And if another team gives a Deshaun Watson deal? You can live with passing on that for 2 1st round draft picks.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Let's see how the Falcons can screw this up.

Hilariously, two different sources say the Falcons have no interest in perusing him. I am glad but sort of amazed.

[QuikSand]

Rumor out there that Titans are open to dealing Derrick Henry ... because, you know, they have to pay their barely-average QB $38m or so this year. So yeah, you have to let go, in consecutive years, your two actual difference-maker players.

[Ksyrup]

The other thing with Jackson I'm seeing is that a team can do a sign-and-trade with the Ravens, meaning that the Ravens could get more than 2 1sts if a team really wants to ensure they don't match the offer.

Either way, this was a really smart move by the Ravens, I think, if they were convinced he isn't worth the kind of deal he wants and they want to max out their options moving forward.

[Ksyrup]

Also - can you imagine the 49ers with Jackson at QB?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Hilariously, two different sources say the Falcons have no interest in perusing him. I am glad but sort of amazed.

It'd be a near-miracle given the franchise history. But even a stopped clock is right twice a day so I suppose it's possible

[JPhillips]

Lamar should work with the Saudis to set up a LIV NFL equivalent.

[GrantDawg]

Daniel Jones got 4 years and $160 million. There are another $35 million in incentive bonuses.

[Atocep]

Every starting qb has to be on the phone with their agent right now.

[Lathum]

Mixed feelings but glad it’s done.

[miked]

Does this put Andy Dalton in the 20M range?

[GrantDawg]

The only fully guaranteed part of the Jones deal is the first two years at $82 million. So it is basically a two year deal.

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[Lathum]

Which is great. Tag Saquon, draft a WR, and give them another year to build off of.

[GrantDawg]

Interestingly, Miami can't talk to Jackson until after the draft because they lost their first round pick due to the Sean Payton/Tom Brady thing.

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[Solecismic]

Jones had an ANY/A of 5.89 last season, a career high. He was very good at protecting the ball, though, and had a high completion percentage. So that made him maybe average in the league as a starter.

They had to do this. And the scarcity of even competent QBs is what drove the price.

What does that mean for Jackson? A career-low ANY/A of 6.05 last year. Lower completion percentage, not terrible at protecting the ball. And then you have the running game dimension.

Some anger that he didn't play hurt in the playoffs. And probably good faith efforts to work out a long-term deal the last two years.

He has to know by now that he's not his own best agent. And that's simply because returning phone calls and not having it be personal are requirements for the job. Good agents are crazy people who can carry on six conversations at once and have absolutely no time to themselves.

If bridges really are burned (and that shouldn't be the case here, but you never know with people), Jackson should call their bluff by hiring an agent. This contract has to be creative enough that Baltimore cannot match it. I don't know how the matching rules work, but surely they can find something simple as an incentive or even a part of the basic compensation that uniquely penalizes Baltimore.

On the other hand, perhaps they want to move on. Heavy-running quarterbacks have a career path that looks more like a running back's than a quarterback's.

[molson]

Unless you're intentionally going with a zero-QB strategy, that's just what decent QBs cost.

[GrantDawg]

All the teams that should be in are saying they are out. Begining to smell a lot like collusion.

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[Solecismic]

If he hires an agent, that changes tomorrow. NFL owners don't collude on competitive stuff. Even on the things they can collude on, like stadium revenue, they're always looking for an extra buck or two. Only Dan Snyder seemed to go too far with that.

If collusion was even one tenth of what it would take to shut down offers for Jackson, the Browns would never have made that utterly insane trade for Watson that seems to have permanently changed how guaranteed money is bandied about.

[GrantDawg]

I think the Watson signing is the very reason why they are colluding on this.

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[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

All the teams that should be in are saying they are out. Begining to smell a lot like collusion.

Or maybe they just know he's not worth 2 firsts to them.

DeShaun hurt the market for Lamar, but that's not collusion, that's "there but for the grace of God go I"

Back to back seasons with five missed games has to be another strike, as well as the lack of an agent simply making him a pain in the ass to deal with.
No collusion required for anyone to reach those conclusions either.

[GrantDawg]

But raping women and not playing for two years was fine for Watson. The red flags for Watson were way bigger, and teams were falling all over themselves to make offers and give up more than two first round picks. Now no team is even interested in talking to a 26 year old former MVP? Pull the other one, it plays jingle bells.

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[albionmoonlight]

I don’t think that it’s formal collusion. I think it is enough owners with aligned interests that they can all agree without having to come to an agreement.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

But raping women and not playing for two years was fine for Watson. The red flags for Watson were way bigger, and teams were falling all over themselves to make offers and give up more than two first round picks. Now no team is even interested in talking to a 26 year old former MVP? Pull the other one, it plays jingle bells.

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But they were delusions ... which has now been proven.

The rest are just happy they didn't end up with that sort of mistake ... and would prefer not to give it a run for its money.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

But raping women and not playing for two years was fine for Watson. The red flags for Watson were way bigger, and teams were falling all over themselves to make offers and give up more than two first round picks. Now no team is even interested in talking to a 26 year old former MVP? Pull the other one, it plays jingle bells.

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Unfortunately, Watson's/Browns uninspiring play last year is the very obvious missing piece to this puzzle. A peak Watson offered unlimited potential...but once that potential turned to a very mediocre reality I think everybody reconsidered the price tag.

[Carman Bulldog]

I assume word is out that the Ravens will match if the contract is "X". I take it most teams simply don't want to do the work of negotiating a contract for the Ravens, while at the same time viewing not "X" along with two first round picks as too expensive.

Maybe one can make an offer better than two first round picks with the agreement that the Ravens not match it, but that still requires coordinating that with the Ravens and then finding an agreement with Lamar.

I get why some people choose not to utilize an agent. In Lamar's case, it seems like whatever he would pay in a commission is potentially offset by not maximizing his value.

[Solecismic]

If it's just "raise your hand and pay two firsts and guarantee $150 million," you get takers.

If it's "yeah, negotiate with this guy who hasn't taken the time to learn how this works, then Baltimore matches it anyway," why bother? They need a hook - a good agent would figure out how to do it and not waste anyone's time.

In the Watson case, the GM was the sucker who decided he was going to make his mark no matter what the cost. That kind of thinking might get it done with Jackson, but it will be so out there ridiculous that even with a rising cap the team may never recover.

And if Jones is worth $40 million, who knows? Maybe $60 million only gets you one phone call with Jackson.

The other point I'd like to make is that the last CBA fixed a problem in which teams were reluctant to draft in the top ten because the money was ridiculous. So they guaranteed costs and ended the possibility of a real holdout.

The problem is that the NFLPA did a poor job indexing the contracts to the cap. And 400-500 new players come into the league every year, cheap. So, Monopoly money for the quarterbacks right now, but that can't or shouldn't last.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Also - can you imagine the 49ers with Jackson at QB?

Yeah I really want to see this. It would be so awesome to watch.

[tzach]

while it smells a lot like a collusion, this doesn't need to be coordinated by a central entity. the ravens may have made clear through private channels during the league meetings that they would match any offer, and it wouldn't be in anyone's interests to escalate.



it would take a rogue owner to sign lamar. MIA is on a short leash after the tampering, and ATL is as league oriented as it can be -- no wonder these two teams pulled out. WAS's Snyder would likely do it, but that doesn't seem on the cards anymore. i can see the raiders or patriots making an attempt. there can be no trade with the ravens for more than 2 first round picks.



i don't think there's any issue with the compensation -- watson costed 3 first round picks, russ 2 firsts and 2 seconds, khalil mack and laremy tunsil 2 firsts.



i agree that lamar would have benefited enormously from having an agent. in addition to the deal, an agent would drive the media, leak info, probe other team's interest etc.

[flere-imsaho]

Yeah, two firsts, especially if Lamar makes you a team where those two firsts are towards the bottom of the first round, seems a very reasonable price, given his production.

The problem is the lack of someone able to convince him he's not getting a Watson contract, be that an agent or otherwise.

[flere-imsaho]

I was reading an article explaining the exclusive and nonexclusive tags and found this, which I had forgotten about and remember finding highly amusing at the time:

This is a silly example, of course, but it’s an important stipulation. When Seahawks guard Steve Hutchinson was signed to the transition tag instead of the franchise tag in 2006, the Vikings offered him a contract that stipulated his entire deal would become guaranteed if there was another lineman on his team making more money than him. In Minnesota, there was no such lineman making more money than Hutchinson, but in Seattle, which had to match the offer sheet word for word, there was. The offer from Minnesota had a poison pill—a fundamental difference in Hutchinson’s contract if he was a Viking instead of a Seahawk—and no such foolishness can happen with sheets offered to Lamar.

[Ksyrup]

Is the reason that situation can't happen with Jackson because they closed that loophole, or some other reason? I vaguely recall that but don't recall the aftermath.

[QuikSand]

Ravens Use Non-Exclusive Tag on Lamar Jackson | Over the Cap

Some insight into the CBA language on the non-exclusive cap, and where things lie now, effectively

I continue to like this for the Ravens

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Is the reason that situation can't happen with Jackson because they closed that loophole, or some other reason? I vaguely recall that but don't recall the aftermath.

I heard that they closed the poison pill loophole.

I imagine that there are still soft poison pills you can do based on incentives, but nothing like the old days.

[albionmoonlight]

I think that the "no team wants to negotiate the Ravens contract for them" would normally be a weak argument. The GM could be talking back channel with the agent and hammering out something before anything had to be public. You could at least get a sense quickly of what his demands are and make a fast choice about whether further talks are even worth it.

But since the way to negotiate with Lamar is apparently either to just text him directly or go through the NFLPA, you know that anything you try to do is going to leak immediately. Which does make you look bad to your fans if you don't get him. And means that you will have to probably invest a fair amount of time/energy into even deciding whether it was worth having the discussions in the first place.

So, yeah, the best thing that Lamar could do right now, IMO, is get an agent.

[GrantDawg]

It looks like biggest poison pill for the Ravens could be to just offer more guaranteed money in the first year than The Ravens can match, and several years could do that.

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[albionmoonlight]

dola: Also, the Ravens are well-known as a class organization. I imagine that there is a (correct) sense among other teams that if it got to this point, it is because Lamar is being unreasonable, not the Ravens.

It might be different if Dan Snyder were the one saying that Lamar was being unreasonable.

[QuikSand]

I think there is quite a bit to that.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Is the reason that situation can't happen with Jackson because they closed that loophole, or some other reason? I vaguely recall that but don't recall the aftermath.

The closed the loophole. Specifically, it's addressed in the CBA, apparently, as:

Notwithstanding Subsections (i) and (ii) above, no Offer Sheet may contain a Principal Term that would create rights or obligations for the Old Club that differ in any way (including but not limited to the amount of compensation that would be paid, the circumstances in which compensation would be guaranteed, or the circumstances in which other contractual rights would or would not vest) from the rights or obligations that such Principal Term would create for the Club extending the Offer Sheet (i.e., no “poison pills”).

I would also think (hope) that the league office could come in over the top and say "NO YUO" to any obvious poison pills that violate the spirit but maybe not the letter of the law.

[stevew]

Not that the Bengals would do it, but what if they just signed a huge offer sheet for Jackson and then immediately traded him to the Texans?

Is this legal?

A signed Jackson(surrendering #28/2024 #1) to the Texans for 33/65/73 and HOU 2024 #1/2

[NobodyHere]

Is there any chance that the Brown's GM made the Deshaun Watson deal for the sole purpose of messing with the Ravens?

[molson]

I love that the transition tag almost seems to have been designed strictly to maximize drama and chaos.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by stevew

Not that the Bengals would do it, but what if they just signed a huge offer sheet for Jackson and then immediately traded him to the Texans?

Is this legal?

A signed Jackson(surrendering #28/2024 #1) to the Texans for 33/65/73 and HOU 2024 #1/2

They would have to fit that contract under the cap for at least one day and any bonus money would accelerate on their cap.