WW CXXXV-Dragonball Z - Saiyans Win

[Autumn]

You said at the time that the day's events were making you lean toward Niccus, PF. What were you referring to?

[PackerFanatic]

There wasn't a whole lot of discussion after 6PM-ish CST yesterday, which is when DV had 4 votes (Niccus had placed the 4th, plus DV had longest vote). I just had a feeling that the wolves (Niccus being one in that instance) were happy with the way votes were and weren't pushing anything. I also look a little toward mckerney in that sense with his 3rd vote on DV.

[PackerFanatic]

I want to try and pull CF out a bit. He had the longest vote on a known villager and didn't seem keen to move it at all.

VOTE CRIMSONFOX

[The Jackal]

Interesting kill, with no bodyguard I figured someone like Narcizo or Autumn would've been the first target, but the wolves must have picked something up that led them to believe Chubby had a role, and turns out he did. At least he wasn't the seer.

I don't know what to say about CF. At first I was shocked with how little he posted, then came his barrage of posts, but as fun as they might be for the game-flavor side (they look foreign to me since I know nothing about the theme..), they really didn't seem to have much useful information in them. I could see him being any role, though I'd lean more towards sorceror than wolf.

Looking over the vote chart mckerney's definitely sticks out the most. I think at the time his thinking was that Niccus' vote switching was wolfy, but I'd like to hear him re-explain it for himself.

The play between Narcizo/Autumn is interesting. The no lynch idea bounced between them, the statistics (I know I was involved in all that too), now some voting. I don't know what to make of it yet. In a game this small the two wolves could either take a quiet route and hope to coast along while villagers attack each other, or they could distance themselves by going at each other. Just thinking out loud.

[The Jackal]

If Niccus is a wolf that might've been a pretty smart kill of Chubby. Definitely suggests that we were villager-villager for the time being, I guess we have better options for the day, but I'm not forgetting about him.

[mauchow]

I personally think this whole thing with narcizo is mind boggling. He's playing a completely different game if he's a villager which leads me to believe he's a wolf. His actions yesterday and so far this morning with the pouncing of autumn are leading me to put my vote like this for now :

vote narcizo

[mauchow]

I guess narcizo could be the sorcerer which we'd also need to take into consideration. We don't want to kill the sorcerer knowing its him.. which I guess we have no way of knowing.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Anyway, the wolves saved us some work by taking out Chubby, whose lastminute move looked fishy. I'll take a look at vote history in the morning to see if anything stands out. With Chubby good, and theother later changes taking heat away from Darth, it seems more likely we were villager-villager.

It wasn't villager-villagers all day at least, so hopefully we have something from the voting records to go by day 3.

I am Piccolo, last night a scan of mauboy came back wolfy.

Vote mauboy

[The Jackal]

Well then. It seems unlikely anyone but the seer would make this reveal, as far as I can figure.

vote mauboy

[mauchow]

To be honest the most likely person to reveal seer is the sorcerer. I know I'm a plain villager so I know he's wrong. There isn't much to argue here. Sorcerer trying to pull out the real seer. No way I reveal today as a seer in hopes of getting at least two scans. I'd reveal right at deadline for nk if anything.

Its a great move for a sorcerer to create havoc on the second day.

[Autumn]

Certainly no wolf would reveal as seer, but sorceror is definitely a possibility. Not a great one though - the sorceror would have to worry about fingering a wolf and screwing things up for the wolves.

Frankly, I think if this is a fake reveal the best move by the seer is probably to keep quiet. The wolves don't know if this is fake or not, and the sorceror has as good a chance of picking a wolf out of a hat as a villager.

[Autumn]

No reason not to buy this reveal at this point unless there's a counter reveal. If mckerney is the sorceror he'll cost us a day of voting, but could hit a wolf by accident. I think if mckerney was the sorceror he'd probably pick a more vocal player to finger as a wolf, someone he'd have a better read on. So I'm willing to buy this, particularly since Mauboy is in my top list of suspects anyway.

VOTE MAUBOY1

[mauchow]

Why am I a suspect?

[mauchow]

Aside from the fake reveal.

[Autumn]

You can look back at my posts, but basically you're on my list because we haven't had any content from you yet to judge by. You've been quiet, not given any reason to think you're a villager, and also managed to not pick up momentum as a candidate yesterday.

[mckerney]

Sorry, no fake reveal here.

[PackerFanatic]

If it's a good reveal, then helluva scan, mckerney

UNVOTE CRIMSONFOX
VOTE MAUBOY

[Narcizo]

Unvote Autumn
Vote mauboy

[Zinto]

Autumn- CrimsonFox (225),
Narcizo- Mauboy (256)
Mauboy- McKerney(258), Jackal (259), Autumn (262), PackerFanatic (267) Narcizo (268)

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Certainly no wolf would reveal as seer, but sorceror is definitely a possibility. Not a great one though - the sorceror would have to worry about fingering a wolf and screwing things up for the wolves.

Frankly, I think if this is a fake reveal the best move by the seer is probably to keep quiet. The wolves don't know if this is fake or not, and the sorceror has as good a chance of picking a wolf out of a hat as a villager.

I disagree. I think this could easily be a wolf move, in fact I think it's more likely to be a wolf move than a sorceror move. From experience I know that the sorceror is scared stiff of accidentally fingering a wolf. However if a wolf makes this claim if anyone counters he can claim that the person countering is the sorceror. If mckerney isn't the seer then I really think the seer needs to reveal because otherwise we'll have lost the game - unless mau is the sorceror .

That being said I've been leaning to mckerney being on the level so I tend to believe him. Hope you'll understand if I ask you to give us your reasoning for scanning mauboy mckerney and anything else about why you're revealing now and not later or sooner. Call me Mr Paranoid b .... no, just call me Mr Paranoid. I want to know we're covering everything.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I guess narcizo could be the sorcerer which we'd also need to take into consideration. We don't want to kill the sorcerer knowing its him.. which I guess we have no way of knowing.

That being said - I think this post is pretty fishy. Dunno if mauboy thought I was the sorceror and is looking for a signal. I've absolutely no idea why he would think I'm the sorceror though because I would definitely not have brought up the whole "sorceror can self-vote day three" thing or advised the village to get their votes in early tomorrow if we don't get a bad guy now. And I don't know why we wouldn't want to kill the sorceror as we have to hit a bad guy today, sorceror or wolf.

[PackerFanatic]

We don't necessarily lose right away if he is fibbing - if he is a wolf. If he is lying, it is still 3:2+1 - we lynch him tomorrow and, after NK, its 2:1+1

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

We don't necessarily lose right away if he is fibbing - if he is a wolf. If he is lying, it is still 3:2+1 - we lynch him tomorrow and, after NK, its 2:1+1

Well, unless the wolves or the sorceror beat us to getting the vote in first. This is why even player games don't work, it easily becomes a race to get the vote in. Anyway I'm probably stretching a bit here.

I'm not going to be around much tomorrow so I'm going to look at day one and two voting assuming mckerney is on the level and is, consequently, not going to see the light of tomorrow.

[Narcizo]

#45 03:11 Narcizo votes Darth Vilus (1)
#57 04:11 Narcizo unvotes Darth Vilus (0)
#58 04:29 Crimson votes Darth Vilus (1)
#61 04:47 Narcizo votes mckerney (1)
#70 09:16 Autumn votes No Lynch (1)

#111 12:40 Autumn unvotes No Lynch (0)
#112 12:44 Autumn votes mauboy (1)
#113 12:46 Chubby votes Niccus (1)
#114 12:50 Packer votes mauboy (2)
#116 13:10 Packer unvotes mauboy (1)
#118 13:17 Jackal votes Darth Vilus (2)
#138 16:18 Narcizo unvotes mckerney (0)
#138 16:18 Narcizo votes No Lynch (1)

#146 16:39 mauboy votes Niccus (2)
#150 18:07 Packer votes Mauboy (2)
#152 18:29 mckerney votes Darth Vilus (3)
#153 18:58 Niccus votes Darth Vilus (4)
#160 20:17 Autumn unvotes mauboy (1)
#160 20:17 Autumn votes Niccus (3)

#167 21:13 Packer unvotes Mauboy (0)
#167 21:13 Packer votes Niccus (4)
#170 21:44 Niccus unvotes Darth Vilus (3)
#170 21:44 Niccus votes Mauboy (1)
#175 21:48 Niccus unvotes mauboy (0)
#175 21:48 Niccus votes Darth Vilus (4)
#176 21:48 mckerney unvotes Darth Vilus (3)
#176 21:48 mckerney votes Niccus (5)
#179 21:51 Chubby unvotes Niccus (4)
#179 21:51 Chubby votes Darth Vilus (4)

Darth Vilus - Crimson (58) The Jackal (118) Niccus (174) Chubby (179)
Niccus - Mauboy(146) Autumn (160) PackerFanatic (167) McKerney (176)

No Lynch - Narcizo(138)

No Vote - Darth Vilus

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I disagree. I think this could easily be a wolf move, in fact I think it's more likely to be a wolf move than a sorceror move. From experience I know that the sorceror is scared stiff of accidentally fingering a wolf. However if a wolf makes this claim if anyone counters he can claim that the person countering is the sorceror. If mckerney isn't the seer then I really think the seer needs to reveal because otherwise we'll have lost the game - unless mau is the sorceror .

That being said I've been leaning to mckerney being on the level so I tend to believe him. Hope you'll understand if I ask you to give us your reasoning for scanning mauboy mckerney and anything else about why you're revealing now and not later or sooner. Call me Mr Paranoid b .... no, just call me Mr Paranoid. I want to know we're covering everything.

I wish I could claim some insight I had that lead me to scanning mau, but I let random.org choose.

As far as timing of my reveal, I waiting until we got some discussion today and heard from mau on who he wanted to vote for.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by mckerney

As far as timing of my reveal, I waiting until we got some discussion today and heard from mau on who he wanted to vote for.

Well, I'm very glad about that for obvious reasons.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

That being said - I think this post is pretty fishy. Dunno if mauboy thought I was the sorceror and is looking for a signal. I've absolutely no idea why he would think I'm the sorceror though because I would definitely not have brought up the whole "sorceror can self-vote day three" thing or advised the village to get their votes in early tomorrow if we don't get a bad guy now. And I don't know why we wouldn't want to kill the sorceror as we have to hit a bad guy today, sorceror or wolf.

Bringing up all those things could be a way to signal to the wolves, hint at who you are and hint at good strategy in case they didn't think of it. I thought of the same thing as Mauboy there, and i don't see it as fishy at all. Either the sorceror isn't making any hints, or its you as far as I can tell.

[Narcizo]

#225 23:26 Crimson votes Autumn (1)
#235 02:48 Narcizo votes Crimson (1)
#247 10:03 Narcizo unvotes Crimson (0)
#247 10:03 Narcizo votes Autumn (2)
#253 11:04 Packer votes Crimson (1)
#256 13:04 Mauboy votes Narcizo (1)

mckerney reveals.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

That being said - I think this post is pretty fishy. Dunno if mauboy thought I was the sorceror and is looking for a signal. I've absolutely no idea why he would think I'm the sorceror though because I would definitely not have brought up the whole "sorceror can self-vote day three" thing or advised the village to get their votes in early tomorrow if we don't get a bad guy now. And I don't know why we wouldn't want to kill the sorceror as we have to hit a bad guy today, sorceror or wolf.

Oh and I think the other part is fairly obvious - we want to vote for wolves, not sorcerors. The whole problem with the sorceror is that if we spend a day lynching him, it hurts us. Yes, it would be great if he got lynched or night killed accidentally before end game, but if we know someone is the sorceror, we wouldn't vote him.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I disagree. I think this could easily be a wolf move, in fact I think it's more likely to be a wolf move than a sorceror move. From experience I know that the sorceror is scared stiff of accidentally fingering a wolf. However if a wolf makes this claim if anyone counters he can claim that the person countering is the sorceror.

But why would they bother? Why put their name out there to be killed unless they're looking likely to be lynched? I don't see that play. They fake reveal, seer counter reveals, seer reveals their scan, someone gets lynched, possibly the wolf, seer is night killed, wolf is lynched the next day if not dead already. Why would the wolf want all that? They want to keep quiet, and hope the seer keeps quiet so they can night kill them. You just pointed out earlier that by end game the seer scans won't matter much.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Bringing up all those things could be a way to signal to the wolves, hint at who you are and hint at good strategy in case they didn't think of it. I thought of the same thing as Mauboy there, and i don't see it as fishy at all. Either the sorceror isn't making any hints, or its you as far as I can tell.

That's funny because I think there's a pretty good chance you're the sorceror.

OK I can buy me signalling the wolves that they want to get their vote in early. I can't see me saying the sorceror would self-vote asap as a sorceror. And I definitely wouldn't be pushing the idea that we probably have to nail a bad guy today or we've lost. Which I think I've shown is the case. I'd shut up about all of it. However if you're the sorceror and you've worked out what I pointed out then you've got every reason to take exactly the course you've been taking. So what sounds more reasonable a sorceror who wants the village to realise that today is a crucial vote where lack of success could result in a loss or one who wants the village to feel like they have another day and can then self-vote at the start of the day?

[Autumn]

Why wouldn't you signal that you could self-vote? Once you self-vote, the gig is up and the game is over, according to your calculations. So there's no harm.

And frankly every day is a crucial vote. What does that even mean? It's not like some days we try to find a wolf and some days we don't. That just sounds like rhetoric to me. You're painting me as "one who wants the village to feel like they have another day". The truth is I disagree with some of your reasoning. The village could miss the vote today and still pull off the win. That is very possible. not once have I ever advocated that we not vote for a wolf today (in fact you're the one who just above said we could vote for the sorceror).

Not to mention, this is from the guy who yesterday encouraged a no lynch, and today suggested that our best course was a no lynch. Now you're painting yourself quite differently aren't you?

I normally nod along with your posts in games, Narcizo. They just make too much sense to be wolf posts. But not this game. You seem to be switching arguments whenever you want to, going from pushing a no lynch yesterday to saying I was suspicious for pushing a no lynch. Now today you went from saying a no lynch was the best idea, to punishing me for suggesting we could win tomorrow. I don't get it.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Frankly, I think if this is a fake reveal the best move by the seer is probably to keep quiet. The wolves don't know if this is fake or not, and the sorceror has as good a chance of picking a wolf out of a hat as a villager.

You see, this. This is a very clever post if you're the sorceror. If you are then you know that mckerney is either the seer or a wolf. If he's the seer you're covered as you're going along with him, if he's a wolf you're advising the seer not to counter and you can self-vote 23:01 for the wolf win.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

THowever if you're the sorceror and you've worked out what I pointed out then you've got every reason to take exactly the course you've been taking.

More specifically, I don't know what the "course" that I've been taking is? What do you mean?

I would think you'd know better than to think I'm the sorceror. I told you specifically during my game how i would play as sorceror, and by now everyone would know it ;-) I think it's a great role for causing mass confusion, and frankly whoever's got it isn't making the most of it so far.

[Narcizo]

Don't really have any more time to argue the toss here. The only people who haven't voted mauboy or been voted by mauboy is Jackal or Crimson. Occam's razor suggests we look there tomorrow.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

You see, this. This is a very clever post if you're the sorceror. If you are then you know that mckerney is either the seer or a wolf. If he's the seer you're covered as you're going along with him, if he's a wolf you're advising the seer not to counter and you can self-vote 23:01 for the wolf win.

If I was sorceror, I would know mckerney wasn't a wolf because it would be a crazy wolf move. The only reason a fake seer reveal makes sense from a wolf is if they're on the chopping block or are sure they will be. Mckerney wasn't getting any pressure at all.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Don't really have any more time to argue the toss here. The only people who haven't voted mauboy or been voted by mauboy is Jackal or Crimson. Occam's razor suggests we look there tomorrow.

Eh? I voted for him right after mckerney revealed.

[The Jackal]

I imagine this is going to be a slow rest of the day with Narc likely off to bed and an unlikely nightfall situation. Ah well, I have plans to take my dad out for father's day anyways so it works for me.

[Autumn]

Yeah, it will be a slow day now, but I think the rushed nightfalls tend to help the wolves, keep the village from thinking things through. Hopefully we can work out who the next vote should be.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Eh? I voted for him right after mckerney revealed.

Hee! You're funny. I meant before mckerney revealed, obviously. I don't think you earn many villager brownie points for voting for a wolf that's been outed by a seer.

Niccus - voted by mauboy in a close race. Don't see wolves doing that - not really much in the way of gain for that. Generally gives the impression of a newbie struggling to come to terms with things (as opposed to an oldbie struggling to come to terms with things, like your's truly). Could be a sorceror of course, but who cares if he is?

Autumn - I think there's a very good chance he's the sorceror and he says the same thing about me. He whacked an early vote onto mauboy but seemed to find a borderline questionable reason to move it onto Niccus. Probably making him the most suspect wolf candidate of anyone who voted/was voted by mau.

Packer - ties the vote up on mau at two and only really moves off of him when he's not a viable candidate. Pretty villagerish there.

Jackal - picks DV ahead of mau (or Niccus) I think a wolf would probably expect Niccus not to be a viable candidate so that's a questionable vote given the information we now have.

Crimson - dunno if his play is based on keeping himself alive or what. First vote on Darth Vilus isn't helpful but he really hasn't given us anything to work with. Could be wolf, could be sorceror, could be villager. Impossible to get a read from him.

Narcizo - I admit my case was looking bad until mau put a vote on me and then was outed. I realise that doesn't clear me of being a sorceror and there's a case against me there. Doesn't even clear me of being a wolf as mau could easily have found a reason to move his vote later. I guess that puts me up with Autumn as the most likely non-Jackal/Crimson wolf.

Leaning towards voting Jackal tomorrow but Crimson needs to offer up more than he has so far or I'll vote for him on pure principle.

So I trust Packer and Niccus. I'm happy to vote with either (hopefully both) of them tomorrow.

[mauchow]

Okay so assuming mckerney is the sorcerer where do we go from here?

Anybody up for analyzing that? I'm at work and can't do too much of that but will try to help.

[The Jackal]

Okay I see what you meant now Narc, I was wondering..

I gave my explanation at the time for my DV vote, and it sticks. You know I'm a big proponent of wolves voting for each other, especially on D1, and would be even moreso in a small game like this. Two wolves distancing themselves is trouble in a small game.

[The Jackal]

IN OTHER NEWS, PAGING EF

PAGING EF

WTF JUST HAPPENED

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Okay so assuming mckerney is the sorcerer where do we go from here?

Anybody up for analyzing that? I'm at work and can't do too much of that but will try to help.

If you think I'm the sorcerer then tell your partner not to kill me tonight, plz k thx. Maybe I can find him too.

[CrimsonFox]

Rrr dis make me angry. make me sad. make me uncomfortable. make me have all human emotions. maybe me in love...or have gas. Me think autumn OR Narcizo are wolf but still really feel the spirits tell me autumn is wolf. THey tell me inside. where it counts and it hurts. That is not reveal. That is just instinct. raw instinct raw power. power to FIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGHT. *Whack mckerney in the stomach accidently in his fervor*

sorceror hunting bad, wolf hunting good.

[CrimsonFox]

me travel today. Me travel far. Me travel long by vroom vroom thing. Then me travel in mobile box then. Now me on. Later me travel in big mechabird to other world. Me fight there. Ancestors live there. Me visit them.

[CrimsonFox]

me learn to read now and catch up on page.


unvote autumn
vote mauboy

[CrimsonFox]

if mauboy not wolf then vote mck on the morrow

[CrimsonFox]

me duel jag today

rrrrrrrrRRRRRRRRR *flies across the sky with lines behind him and lands foot first in his chest sending him sprawling backward.*

[Autumn]

I didn't realize DragonballZ was about Tarzan. Or the Hulk.