Werewolf V: Mount Fogg

[digamma]

Originally Posted by mrsimperless

Exactly. That's one of the reason's I want to vote for king. Then we'll no for sure if yesterday's votes meant anything.

I find this to be a compelling argument. It's definitely a strategic play, but I am still worried that we may be handicapping ourselves if we are wrong.

Vote kingfc22

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by heybrad

Thats a pretty weak chance to push the vote towards me. Lets make it official. I'm sticking with my last vote.

Vote kingfc22

Is it? If I was a wolf, I'd be loving how this is playing out. All the villagers main target's are other villagers and that makes it very easy for a wolf to blend in. All the wolf/ves have to do is jump on whichever train is leaving and their is no way to tell because everyone else is doing the same thing.

Then their is Jeebs, the all-time leader in posts and yet he reamains curiously silent except for this rather odd post:

Damn, sorry Fouts. Weird how the theory worked in getting Blacky but got you lynched while innocent.

I'm all confuddled now.

[Raven]

I hate voting this early, but I have to leave for work.

I'm still not sure about King. Like I said, he is the easy target here, maybe too easy.

But if he doesn't get lynched tonight, then I am always going to speculate about him. Also, if we don't take him out and instead hit another villager tonight, it's inevitable that King is going to be gone any day now. I'll take my chances.

Vote Kingfc

[kingfc22]

Can't believe this is happening. Congrats wolf/ves you have this one in the bag.


Vote heybrad

[henry296]

Quick vote update before the 5 o'clock whistle:

King 6 - RA, Neon, Schmidty, heybrad, digamma, Raven
heybrad - 1 Kingfc2

Todd

[henry296]

Neon_Chaos

[henry296]

forgot the word vote:

VOTE neon_chaos

[Token Asian Guy]

ok, looking back on previous posts, i believe i may be starting to get a handle on what's going on. Fouts was not a wolf, and kingfc accused him, making kingfc a target. but isn't that a stupid play on kingfc's part if he is a wolf, to endanger himself just to get Fouts lynched? he'd be pretty brave to assume that everyone would just trust him, as evidenced by the current vote count. now, if king is a wolf, then i'd assume he'd be the head wolf, because his ability to kill another when he is killed would cancel out his death, making it ok for him to stick his neck out like he has. as for his original voting, i really believe that king voted for blackie in the beginning just because of the butt sniffing comment, and not really on any other basis, and therefore switched when he found more compelling evidence leading him elsewhere. it just so happens that blackie was a wolf, which was poor luck for king...i think. unless he really is a wolf, but i'm gonna go with my gut on this one and vote for the silent guy.

VOTE HEYBRAD

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Token Asian Guy

...king is a wolf, then i'd assume he'd be the head wolf, because his ability to kill another when he is killed would cancel out his death, making it ok for him to stick his neck out like he has...

This idea would probably be okay, except for the fact that 1 wolf is already dead. Why would a second wolf sacrifice themself? Especially since as it stands right now, a villager (ME) is getting lynched tonight.

[henry296]

unvote neon_chaos
VOTE heybrad

[mrsimperless]

Alright, I've come to my conclusion for the day. First off here is my analysis assuming that king is NOT a wolf:

If king is not a wolf, there is a fairly short list of major suspects IMO. This list comes from the analysis I drew up of the day 1 voting patterns, since we can toss out day 2 in this scenario. (Both people voted for were villagers) This list is derived from those people who didn't vote for blackie. It would also include those that "piled on" or voted for Blackie when it didn't really matter, but I couldn't really find any people like that except MAYBE Raiders. But I didn't include him in this. Here we go...

henry - Voted for Raiders on Day 1 becasue he accused him of jumping on the Blackie bandwagon. Raiders was the second person to vote for Blackie.

raven - Had a VERY convincing argument in post #142. Probably the least suspicious on the list IMO.

neon - Post #114 is very interesting. In it he casts suspicion on heybrad, fouts, king and blacky. This is after we knew blacky was a wolf. We also know now that fouts and (in this scenario) king are villagers. This being the case it seems like he is just trying to lump innocent villagers in with a known wolf. Also, it looks like he didn't vote on day #2 which is odd.

heybrad - Named in post #114 above along with two innocents and a known wolf. If neon is a wolf it's likely heybrad isn't. I don't see anything major to point to heybrad over neon.

ntndeacon - Since suicane wasn't playing the first day we don't have much to go by. This guy is a major question mark and I don't have much of a feeling either way.

Of these five people I think neon is the most suspicious based on his activity today and post #114. As far as whether or not I believe the axis of evil is guilty or the neon posse, I'm beginning to wonder. I have digamma as the lieutenant in the axis and if we lynch king today and he's a wolf digamma gets my vote tomorrow. However, digamma has already voted for king today which puts a wrench in things. Granted, he could be trying to throw me off and can always switch later, but it just seems weird. The king vote no longer feels right and based on that:

UNVOTE kingfc22

VOTE Neon_Chaos

[mrsimperless]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Nice. One werewolf down... how many more to go?

No hard feelings, JeeberD, I had to vote for someone... and jumping on the bandwagon is not my cup of tea.

Hmmm.

heybrad, Fouts, kingfc22, Blackadar all voted for Schmidty.

I would say that Fouts and heybrad are probably werewolves, but that's just going with my gut. That's my analysis for now.

Here is Neon's post #114.

[digamma]

In looking at how a couple of people have voted, I agree the kingfc vote doesn't seem right.

UNVOTE kingfc22.

[mrsimperless]

Originally Posted by digamma

In looking at how a couple of people have voted, I agree the kingfc vote doesn't seem right.

UNVOTE kingfc22.

Great, now you're making me want to vote for king again! Damn you werewolves and your tomfoolery! Damn you all to hell!

[kingfc22]

Was going over this thread a little more just now and I still think heybrad is the one to go.

My suspiciously inactive list includes: GWB, Jeebs and Raven

[heybrad]

Originally Posted by Token Asian Guy

but i'm gonna go with my gut on this one and vote for the silent guy.

VOTE HEYBRAD

If you think I've been silent you should carefully reread ALL of my posts.

[mrsimperless]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Was going over this thread a little more just now and I still think heybrad is the one to go.

My suspiciously inactive list includes: GWB, Jeebs and Raven

King, you are starting to make me suspect you again. You've got to give me more to go off of then that. You just named the three people I suspect here probably the least.

GWB was the 13th person to vote for blackie. Just before he did the vote count was as follows:
JeeberD – 1
Blackadar – 2
BuzzBee – 3
Schmidty – 4
Raiders – 1

Jeebs was the 14th person to vote for blackie. Just before he did the vote count was as follows:
JeeberD – 1
Blackadar – 3
BuzzBee – 3
Schmidty – 4
Raiders – 1

Both of these votes were major swings towards blacky. especially Jeebs, who changed his vote from Schmidty, the leader at the time. I agree Raven could be a suspect, but read post #142.

If you aren't the wolf you need to give us better alternatives than that. I mentioned neon and he still seems suspicious, but I'm 2.5 seconds away from switching my vote back to you now.

[mrsimperless]

When I say 13th and 14th to vote for blackie I meant they had the 13th and 14th votes overall, respectively, and each voted for Blackie

[kingfc22]

I can say that I haven't done an extensive voting research like you have. The only reason I mentioned those 3 is because of Jeebs post #64. People who lay low scare me because they go unnoticed.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by mrsimperless

neon - Post #114 is very interesting. In it he casts suspicion on heybrad, fouts, king and blacky. This is after we knew blacky was a wolf. We also know now that fouts and (in this scenario) king are villagers. This being the case it seems like he is just trying to lump innocent villagers in with a known wolf. Also, it looks like he didn't vote on day #2 which is odd.

heybrad - Named in post #114 above along with two innocents and a known wolf. If neon is a wolf it's likely heybrad isn't. I don't see anything major to point to heybrad over neon.

ntndeacon - Since suicane wasn't playing the first day we don't have much to go by. This guy is a major question mark and I don't have much of a feeling either way.

Of these five people I think neon is the most suspicious based on his activity today and post #114. As far as whether or not I believe the axis of evil is guilty or the neon posse, I'm beginning to wonder. I have digamma as the lieutenant in the axis and if we lynch king today and he's a wolf digamma gets my vote tomorrow. However, digamma has already voted for king today which puts a wrench in things. Granted, he could be trying to throw me off and can always switch later, but it just seems weird. The king vote no longer feels right and based on that:

UNVOTE kingfc22

VOTE Neon_Chaos

I don't vote for kingfc22, and I get suspected. I vote for kingfc22, and I get suspected even more.

Beautiful.

Oh and I wasn't able to vote because I was sleeping. (I'm on the other side of the globe). Anyway, I've been working 25 hours non-stop right now with only a computer in front of me, so I've been posting on-and-off throughout the night (day in your case)

I am not a werewolf. I am a villager. You vote for me, and you waste a vote that could be used to lynch one of the horrid icky hairy beasts.

[Neon_Chaos]

dola

I keep forgetting to add things to my posts. And since we're not supposed to edit, I keep dola-ing. :P

My vote stays with kingfc22. If he's a villager, then we all go to hell, right? If he's a werewolf, then we all get to celebrate.

My list of werewolf suspects? Right now it's:
kingfc22 (the obvious one) and digamma

I still have my suspicions on heybrad.

[mrsimperless]

Current vote count. (Someone please double check)
king (raiders, neon, schmidty, heybrad, raven) 5
heybrad (king, TAG, henry) 3
neon (mrsimperless) 1

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

I can say that I haven't done an extensive voting research like you have. The only reason I mentioned those 3 is because of Jeebs post #64. People who lay low scare me because they go unnoticed.

This is a very good point. Right now, BHG tells me:

Brain=kingfc22
Heart=Neon_Chaos
Gut=heybrad

Brain goes with kingfc22 since he is a logical choice (already explained in some of my earlier posts). Heart goes with Neon_Chaos because he voted for me and had no basis other than his gut. Gut tells me heybrad, since Fouts wasn't a werewolf, I feel he must be.

While toying with changing my vote for today, I just can't. I don't feel as if kingfc22 is a werewolf, but everything points to it. Regardless of my feelings, if he is lynched tonight and we find out what he is, I think it will reveal the rest of the game. Tonight's lynching is the keystone to figuring out who is who.

Right now I'm pretty sure mister is a good guy since he's posting his thoughts, which seem to make sense. I'm also trying to figure out if maybe Schmidty is a werewolf, and this was a ploy by them to offer up a sacrifice of him or Blacky the first night to throw us all off and kill two villagers in a row. I think it's a good strategy to sacrifice one for possibly five villagers (3 attacks and 2 lynchings).

[digamma]

Originally Posted by mrsimperless

Great, now you're making me want to vote for king again! Damn you werewolves and your tomfoolery! Damn you all to hell!

I'm fairly confident you are not a wolf. I wish you shared that same confidence in me.

[Raiders Army]

I'm off to play CoH. I'll check in later to see how it all turns out. This has been a week from Hell at work and I'm tired of thinking.

[Neon_Chaos]

Alright guys. I am off for home. My head hurts, I've been programming non-stop for the past day. It's 6:15 AM, and I've been awake since 5:00 AM Yesterday. When I hit home, I'll check in the forum one last time before going to bed. :P

[mrsimperless]

Yes, I have a feeling I will be eaten tonight and I'm fairly surprised I haven't been already. I think most everyone can tell I'm not a wolf and they're probably not going to vote for me. If the wolves take me out it doesn't make the villagers jobs any easier, whereas if they take out someone else it might eliminate someone from the list that was more iffy.

That's ok, I lay it all out in the open. If the voting between heybrad and king gets close I'm switching back to king. Heybrad might well be a wolf, but I've gotta play the odds here. If we lynch king tonight and he's a wolf, digamma is a wolf. If king wasn't a wolf it's gotta be neon or one of the other guys from my last list. Best of luck to us villagers.

[kingfc22]

Raiders: The reason I'm a suspect is because I jumped on the Blackadar vote and then happened to switch. It was by chance that we got lucky and got a wolf on night one. YOU were the 2nd to vote for Blackadar and to me it was the same reason I voted for him initially; because he was the only name and no villager wants to get lynched on day one so you and I went with the flow. I just happened to change my vote and now we are about to kill another villager.

Go with you gut...

[kingfc22]

dola

Playing poker and trying to keep track of what is going on is awfully difficult.

[mrsimperless]

What is the biggest argument for heybrad over neon? That post #114 is pretty damning IMO. (If in fact king is not a wolf) Also he did a really good job of hiding during day 1. His was the first overall vote, and he voted for Jeeber (whom I'm convinced is not a wolf). Heybrad voted for schmidty. I don't think schmidty is wolf, but he could be.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by mrsimperless

What is the biggest argument for heybrad over neon?

My post #243. Even if he is not a wolf he still may be the scorerer who is still a bad guy none the less. Not voting for Blackadar on day 1 combned with my reasons in aforementioned post make me to believe that he is in this role.

Like I've said earlier. Lynching me gives the wolf/ves a HUGE lead over the villagers.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by mrsimperless

Yes, I have a feeling I will be eaten tonight and I'm fairly surprised I haven't been already. I think most everyone can tell I'm not a wolf and they're probably not going to vote for me. If the wolves take me out it doesn't make the villagers jobs any easier, whereas if they take out someone else it might eliminate someone from the list that was more iffy.

That's ok, I lay it all out in the open. If the voting between heybrad and king gets close I'm switching back to king. Heybrad might well be a wolf, but I've gotta play the odds here. If we lynch king tonight and he's a wolf, digamma is a wolf. If king wasn't a wolf it's gotta be neon or one of the other guys from my last list. Best of luck to us villagers.

What is your reasoning for not voting for kingfc22 then?

Honestly, I find your strategic reasoning behind the king vote most compelling. I think we can find out a lot by knowing his role--yet I'm not wholly convinced he's a wolf.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by digamma

What is your reasoning for not voting for kingfc22 then?

Honestly, I find your strategic reasoning behind the king vote most compelling. I think we can find out a lot by knowing his role--yet I'm not wholly convinced he's a wolf.

Quiet wolf. You know you love seeing us villagers kill ourselves.

[mrsimperless]

Ok, just reread the post. It basically says you think he's a wolf because he didn't vote for Blackie on Day #1 and he voted for you on day #2. As I've already said, if you are not a wolf then we might as well throw out the day #2 voting results. It doesn't mean a thing. If I'm not voting for you today I still say it's Neon over heybrad. But the more you say the less sense you seem to make to me. I don't see the werewolves having a HUGE lead regardless of what happens tonight. Our day 1 lynch really put us ahead. In Werewolf II they lynched villagers like what, the first three days in a row? Maybe more? Plus the cursed was hit right off the bat and that game came down to the wire. We are well ahead of where they were at this point.

[mrsimperless]

Originally Posted by digamma

What is your reasoning for not voting for kingfc22 then?

Honestly, I find your strategic reasoning behind the king vote most compelling. I think we can find out a lot by knowing his role--yet I'm not wholly convinced he's a wolf.

I think it's mostly because of my thinking that your are the Lieutenant in the axis, if it exists. And you seem to want everyone to vote for king at this point. That makes me think I've made a mistake somewhere in my reasoning.

I guess it still could be king and heybrad or king and ntndeacon. But like I said, if we lynch king and he turns into a werewolf I see you as the #1 target for tomorrow.

[Joe]

It seems to me like the choice for kingfc is almost too obvious a choice. IMO a wolf would try better to hide their wolfishness and wouldn't vote and unvote for a fellow wolf on day 1. It just doesnt seem like a smart thing to do. He's still up on my list of suspects, but I don't see that evidence as damning as others. The other people on my list right now are NeonChaos and Heybrad, for reasons already stated. I'm having trouble trying to decide who is more likely to be a wolf, but as Simperless pointed out post #114, it kind of makes more sense in my mind. I may regret not voting for King, but I don't feel all the way on him, not yet. So I will

Vote For HeyBrad

[JeeberD]

After reading through the thread I'm no less confused who to vote for than I was this morning. However, I'm leaving for work in five minutes and have to vote. I'm not 100% sold on him, but there have been some solid arguements that he is a wolf...

Vote Kingfc22

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by mrsimperless

What is the biggest argument for heybrad over neon? That post #114 is pretty damning IMO. (If in fact king is not a wolf) Also he did a really good job of hiding during day 1. His was the first overall vote, and he voted for Jeeber (whom I'm convinced is not a wolf). Heybrad voted for schmidty. I don't think schmidty is wolf, but he could be.

You're reading too much into things mrsimperless, although I agree that your deducive nature will probably cost you the night. Bodyguard, care to help out?

The vote for Jeeber was just a random vote.

Post #114 was pretty simple. I saw 4 people who did not vote for the Werewolf, who was Blackie:

heybrad, Fouts, kingfc22 and Blackadar

so that leaves us Fouts, heybrad and kingfc22.

Fouts turned out to be a villager. I would have voted for Fouts anyway, if I was able to. So, there's one mistaken identity.

heybrad and kingfc22? They're the best suspects. But hey, everyone's suspected them anyway. Although, again, I reitirate, kingfc22 is the obvious choice. Insanely easy obvious choice. Too obvious that it might not be real.

With all my pandering, I'm sure that I'm probably looking like a werewolf now. But I assure you that I am not.

My vote stays with kingfc22. If he doesn't turn out to be a werewolf (or doesn't get lynched), then I'm practically a lynched man. And that's a risk I'm willing to take.

I am not a werewolf. I am a villager.

[kingfc22]

Looks like the wolves get 2 today again. Good job guys.

[Thomkal]

The suspense is killing me! Oh wait....

[digamma]

I'm going to stick with my strategy vote.

VOTE KINGFC22

[Raiders Army]

I apologize in advance for the lynching if you're a villager, but I think we just have to know for sure what you are. I still vote for you kingfc22.

[KWhit]

Day 3:

The voting results:
Kingfc22 - 7 (raiders Army, neon_chaos, Schmidty, heybrad, raven, JeeberD, digamma)
Heybrad - 4 (kingfc22, Token Asian guy, neon_chaos, GWB)
neon_chaos - 1 (mrsimperless)

"No!" screams kingfc22 as you drag him across the room. The discussions are over, and it's time for somebody to hang. You string him up, and he begins to thrash. He screams, "You'll never beat them. The wolves are the future. You will all die in your sleep. Fools!" Finally, he is dead, putting an end to his wails. You have killed the Sorcerer.

You all sigh in relief as you make your way back to your rooms. But you know the wolves will be coming for you tonight. And they're going to be pissed.

[KWhit]

Alive and Kicking:
henry296
Raven
Neon_Chaos
digamma
mrsimperless
heybrad
George W Bush
JeeberD
ntndeacon
Schmidty
Token Asian Guy
Raiders Army

Gone but not forgotten:
Blackadar - Werewolf, lynched Day 1
Fouts - Villager, lynched Day 2
Thomkal - Villager, killed by Werewolves Night 2
kingfc22 - Sorcerer, lynched, Day 3


PM your night actions to me please. If you get them all to me by midnight, I will post the results tonight. Otherwise, I will post them tomorrow morning.

[heybrad]

Not fully as expected, but good news! I'm leaving until tomorrow afternoon. Hopefully, I survive the night.

[Joe]

He wasn't a wolf, but close enough, he was still a baddie. Good call guys.

[Thomkal]

Woot! Thanks for avenging me!

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Woot! Thanks for avenging me!

Does this mean you were the Seer?

[henry296]

Good job everyone.

[henry296]

Just remember the wolves didn't know who the Sorcerer is and the Sorcerer didn't know the wolves.

Also the Seer didn't know that a person would be the Sorcerer. If the seer viewed Kingfc22 he would have appeared as a villager.