02-10-2006, 06:41 PM | #251 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: The Black Hole
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Quote:
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02-10-2006, 06:41 PM | #252 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: South Bend, IN
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Quote:
But that's predicated on one of the four being a wolf. Suppose none of the four is a wolf -- now you have a 0/4 chance of being right. I've already posited that it's entirely possible that none is a wolf, even if all four have some significance.
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Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you) |
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02-10-2006, 06:42 PM | #253 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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Quote:
Looks like another WW game with a 1st day lynch of a villager/survivor thanks to Blade. Maybe he's still mad that I blinded him last game.
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02-10-2006, 06:43 PM | #254 | ||
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
No, if random even the bolded spots have a 1/21 chance...now if your assuming for sure one is a wolf, then sure..1/4...but i assume that it is random, so i dont agree with your argument here at all Quote:
There were 3 then, hoops has since stated his list was wrong. So he was the leader, and the votes came very quickly together at the end(bandwagon). And since he had yet to reply it would prob. mean more votes...it was just sensible he was going to get lynched at the time. hence why your vote makes sense
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Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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02-10-2006, 06:44 PM | #255 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: South Bend, IN
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Dola, and I've also told you why I would claim any sort of special role, even if I had one -- even if it saved me today, it would probably kill me tonight, so I'd be better off denying it and hoping to actually get some use out of it.
However, in point of fact, as far as I can tell, I'm nobody special.
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Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you) |
02-10-2006, 06:45 PM | #256 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Tomorrow is a bad day for me. At the most, I'll have 2-3 hours of availability the entire day. If I was a good boy regarding the family, I'm probably unavailable the entire day.
So, I would like extended hours for the weekend, if possible. Waiting until Monday would be best for me, but I don't want the game to be held up on my account. |
02-10-2006, 06:46 PM | #257 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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Quote:
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02-10-2006, 06:47 PM | #258 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Here and There
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It would be nice if the night action was done before the weekend was over so we had something talk about.
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02-10-2006, 06:48 PM | #259 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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02-10-2006, 06:54 PM | #260 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Los Angeles, California
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I can hang around during the weekend on and off so any of the three options is fine with me....
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02-10-2006, 06:59 PM | #261 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Bethlehem, Pa
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well seeing as how i am one of the bolded numbers, I think Ardent would have to be dumb to make all of us the wolves, and since we know he isnt dumb, the statistical argument that one of the 4 is a wolf dont really make a lot of sense to me. that said, as soon as i realized i was bolded, i PM'ed him to find out exactly why i was, and got the lottery number explanation....my reason for asking.....because i knew on day one that they were gonna be a big issue. i personally am shooting at the 1 in 21 chance, as if there was nothing special about the signup board.
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02-10-2006, 07:02 PM | #262 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Bethlehem, Pa
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dola, i can play over the weekend, whatever is best for everyone else is fine by me
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02-10-2006, 07:05 PM | #263 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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I can play over the weekend too.. And I kinda like how the bolded numbers have given us something to stir around for Day1. With no Night 0, it would have just been randomness for why people picked whoever. At least now we have something to talk about (right or wrong) I know I am watching interestedly to see who is willing to condemn who, or who tries to save whomever.
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02-10-2006, 07:13 PM | #264 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Here and There
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Since I've got nothing else to do, my personal high threat/benefit pyschological profiling. Not meant to impy guilt or innocence, just identifying people who probably bear watching:
1. Kwhit - Underrated. Very good at hiding in plain sight. 3. Alan T - Very thorough, methodical 6. Grammaticus - He makes me think of the movie "Terminator" for some reason. 10. Schmidty - Unpredictable. Powder keg. Extremely defensive, good or evil, so you can't tell if he's hiding something. 12. hoopsguy - Thoughtful and thorough 13. Blade6119 - Crazy hero of werewolf act makes it hard to tell if he's killing people on purpose or not 15. Mr. Wednesday - Always seems to be around, but not too around. Adds decent insight when he does post 16. saldana - Been in a lot of these. See #12 18. RPI-Fan - Sort of like a less angry version of Schmidty. Generally pretty quiet which makes him tough to read, but he's shown good abilities. 20. kingfc22 - What, that shuriken in my door? I was asleep while a fight was going on outside my house! |
02-10-2006, 07:15 PM | #265 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Has anyone seen my wife, Meredith?!
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02-10-2006, 07:16 PM | #266 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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With just under three hours remaining I unofficially have Mr. Wednesday and Kingfc22 at 4 votes. I have Alan T and Blade6119 at 2 votes each. Three others each have one vote.
Five players according to my records have yet to vote.
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Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum. |
02-10-2006, 07:18 PM | #267 |
Banned
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: The Hatch
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Im good for the weekend but also understand if people cant play during it.
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02-10-2006, 07:27 PM | #268 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
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I really don't want to vote for Mr. W, but since I am currently tied I must out of self-preservation.
UNVOTE RAIDERS ARMY VOTE MR. W I'm now off to meet up with my dad before we head out to go watch the US beat up on Japan.
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Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal |
02-10-2006, 07:33 PM | #269 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Los Angeles, California
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Quote:
I'm not sure if humor was intended, but I definately got a good laugh out of this. FWIW, it seems as though your profiling is right on the money, at least as far as I'm concerned. Your Blade and Schmidty profiles are awesome.
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02-10-2006, 07:33 PM | #270 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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I want to make sure I have the game straight.
A member of The Others can lie and say that they are a Survivor, correct? |
02-10-2006, 07:34 PM | #271 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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02-10-2006, 07:35 PM | #272 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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Quote:
Thats what they are doing right now. out of all of us, there are maybe 3-4 people who are lying, and basically being a "wolf" to trick us. They don't have to say anything true, or might have partial truths. Our goal is to try to watch what people say and do to catch them in the act, to trip them up and lynch them. |
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02-10-2006, 07:38 PM | #273 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Here and There
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Quote:
I'm glad you enjoyed it. It's my true feelings on the people on the list, but I did try and spice it up a little. |
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02-10-2006, 07:40 PM | #274 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Actually, there are probably more than 3-4 who are lying - or at least keeping info from us. Someone with a special role as a survivor certainly is not trying to give that information away; it would make them a bigger night target.
That said, they don't want to die with information that can help the survivors. So they will usually try to put hidden clues out there. That type of stuff normally doesn't happen until at least Day 2, since they don't have any information at the moment (game started with Day cycle, not Night cycle). |
02-10-2006, 07:43 PM | #275 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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The four people with multiple votes are not the ones I would have chosen to race off today, based on previous games. If we end up lynching a survivor, then we are losing someone of value right out of the chute. Not just as a survivor (thus boosting our numbers) but someone who generally plays the game with above-average interest and intensity.
OK, hope to be around late tonight and catch up on the days events - barring a late vote swing in my direction or a quick Night cycle. |
02-10-2006, 07:44 PM | #276 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Los Angeles, California
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I don't like doing this, but since it looks as though we are being pressured to vote one or the other, I'm going to Vote KingFC. I know in previous games Mr. W has done a good job, and if he's a survivor, it'd be tragic to lose him on day one.
I'm heading home from work right now and I'm not sure I'll be on again before the deadline so I hope I'm not making a mistake. Day one always sucks because of the lack of evidence.
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02-10-2006, 07:45 PM | #277 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Here and There
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I pretty much agree with that sentiment. I'm not sure that there is a ever a "good" vote off the first day though, unless you get lucky. You either get rid of someone exprienced or someone who probably hasn't played much. I'd hate to ruin someone's enjoyment if they hadn't played much before.
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02-10-2006, 07:49 PM | #278 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: The Black Hole
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I hesitate to leave my vote on kingfc. Although I think most people would view me as being innocent since I was his first vote, I don't like the bandwagon that occurred. It seems as if it's too...contrived.
That being said, I'm fairly certain that the others are playing it safe and spreading their votes out. |
02-10-2006, 07:52 PM | #279 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
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Quote:
WTF?!?!?!?!! Taking a fucking personal shot in a damned WW game??? If I saw you in real life, I'd poop on your shoe!!!!!!!!!!!
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Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross |
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02-10-2006, 07:53 PM | #280 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: The Black Hole
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Quote:
Anyhow, I'm out for the night. I guess I'll leave my vote as is. Good luck to us. |
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02-10-2006, 07:55 PM | #281 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Count me among the suspicious with the steady movement towards Kingfc, even though I was part of that bandwagon.
UNVOTE KINGFC22 VOTE MR. WEDNESDAY There is no reason for a counter bandwagon to form if we missed on our first guy. The "others" can just dump votes in as random a pattern as possible. So if a 2nd bandwagon is forming, it casts suspicion on the guy who is escaping the original one. Does this make sense to anyone else? Hope so - and hope that my vote lands on a villain at the end of the day. |
02-10-2006, 07:56 PM | #282 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Early, TX
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Hell of a lot of vote switching going on, which seems odd for a first day when we have no actual evidence of anything.......
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Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross |
02-10-2006, 07:57 PM | #283 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Quote:
I've given considerable thought to changing my vote to kingfc22. He was accused of being a bad guy and instead of denying it, he used smoke and mirrors to cloud the situation. That combined with Mr. Wednesday claiming to not be a bad guy leads me to want to change my vote. BUT! Mr. Wednesday's effort when seeing he had the most votes and such lead me to think he is a bad guy trying to stick around. So, I think I am leaving my vote the same. Of course, that could change some time tonight. |
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02-10-2006, 07:57 PM | #284 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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02-10-2006, 08:02 PM | #285 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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Quote:
I think I see what you are saying. I was a bit nervous with alot of people voting after me, but I was afraid if I changed my vote after the bandwagon started I would be viewed as trying to "save Mr. Wednesday" I figured since I dont know either of these people nor have any proof about either, it was safer for me to stay where I was and then try to learn what I could about people who voted after me. |
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02-10-2006, 08:17 PM | #286 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
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I say get the night actions posted sometime between tonight and tomorrow and take a break on the day until Monday. I'll be on very limited this weekend if at all.
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02-10-2006, 08:21 PM | #287 | |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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Quote:
It appears that is what we'll do. We'll process night actions as they come in, and then resume with a Monday night deadline for Day 2.
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Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum. |
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02-10-2006, 08:35 PM | #288 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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VOTE Mr. Wednesday
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02-10-2006, 08:51 PM | #289 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Here and There
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Quote:
I wear flip-flops |
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02-10-2006, 08:53 PM | #290 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Quote:
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02-10-2006, 08:54 PM | #291 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Here and There
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I'm considering voting for him for that. But lynching him would just give him more time to poop.
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02-10-2006, 08:55 PM | #292 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Here and There
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One thing that must not happen tonight is a tie.
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02-10-2006, 09:02 PM | #293 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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02-10-2006, 09:05 PM | #294 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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Quote:
You can bet that I'm not going anywhere near tie votes this time |
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02-10-2006, 09:07 PM | #295 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Id be willing to cast a vote to break a tie..this game i dont have anything to lose, so ill take my chances if you set it up
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
02-10-2006, 09:13 PM | #296 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: The Black Hole
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Back before the vote. Interesting shift away from king to Wednesday again.
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02-10-2006, 09:16 PM | #297 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Im back until the deadline as well after a nice dinner...should be an interesting day 2
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
02-10-2006, 09:16 PM | #298 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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This is what I have so far. Mr. Wednesday 7, King 3, Alan and Blade 2:
(67) Blade Votes Mckerney (1) (115) hoops votes Taz (lol) (121) hoops UNVOTES taz (lol) (121) hoops Votes Tanglewood (1) (138) Alan Votes Mr. Wednesday (1) (147) Sndvls Votes Grammaticus (1) (151) saldana votes Alan (1) (162) Blade UNVOTES Mckerney (0) (162) Blade votes Raiders Army (1) (168) Grammaticus votes desmond (1) (181) Bearcat votes Mr. Wednesday (2) (182) Spleen votes Mr. Wednesday (3) (190) Kwhit Votes Rpi (1) (208) Schmidty votes blade (1) (210) Swaggs votes Blade (2) (213) King votes Raiders army (2) (217) Raiders Army votes king (1) (222) Desmond votes Mr. Wednesday (4) (226) Mr. Wednesday votes Rpi (2) (232) Celeval votes Alan T (2) (235) Blade UNVOTES Raiders Army (1) (235) Blade votes King (2) (241) Hoops UNVOTES Tanglewood (0) (241) Hoops votes King (3) (242) Mr. Wednesday UNVOTES rpi (1) (242) Mr. Wednesday Votes king (4) (268) king UNVOTES Raiders Army (0) (268) king votes Mr. Wednesday (5) (281) Hoops UNVOTES King (3) (281) Hoops Votes Mr. Wednesday (6) (288) mckerney votes Mr. wednesday (7) |
02-10-2006, 09:23 PM | #299 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: The Black Hole
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Thanks Alan. Something interesting about hoopsguy: he unvoted twice to hop on the bandwagon. Once to vote king when king had the lead, and then became one of the deciding votes for Wednesday.
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02-10-2006, 09:25 PM | #300 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Here and There
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Quote:
Is there a benefit to doing that? |
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