Werewolf LIII -- Boo! (GAME OVER!)

[SnDvls]

and there it is so again I'll put it back on

Vote St. C

[SnDvls]

my connection seems really slow tonight...and it's thundering & lightning so I'm going to leave now.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Can't speak for Alan but a post by NTN on page 3 is my reason

The only post by him on page 3 that I see is that both the Day 1 leaders scare him?

FTR, I don't see how ntn could have scanned me, if we're to believe that he scanned Barkeep, then Chief Rum.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

FTR, I don't see how ntn could have scanned me, if we're to believe that he scanned Barkeep, then Chief Rum.

This is what I'm wondering as well. I saw a post (not on page three) where you can read into him clearing you, but if that's the case he couldn't have scanned Barkeep, Chief, and you. So who's the odd man out?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Ezarik

This is what I'm wondering as well. I saw a post (not on page three) where you can read into him clearing you, but if that's the case he couldn't have scanned Barkeep, Chief, and you. So who's the odd man out?

Can somebody point this post out?

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I tend to slightly trust Pass a little here, and so Chief's initial vote looks a little fishy to me.

This was his post on day two that appears like he scanned Pass on night one. In the same post, he mentions that he feels like Barkeep is good, so I doubt Barkeep was the night two target. I'm guessing he scanned Chief last night, found out he was a wolf, and did his best to draw attention to that without coming out directly and saying he was the seer.

So now I'm thinking that Pass is good and Barkeep hasn't been cleared after all.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I am not sure that the Ardent defense fits you well Chief.

Quiet you! Yeah, it was forced. I need to come up with a better "I have been outed" defense, eh?

Or I need to give ardent my log in and let him have a go.

[st.cronin]

Based on his posts earlier today, I still believe Barkeep was scanned, not Pass.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Chief, you fit my profile of someone who would go after Lathum, given the circumstances, on Day 1. As I have been the other major vote leader, I saw no reason to look farther. It's great when you can feel good about self defense.

Heh, I thought someone would say that. I'm too obvious right now. Every seer checks me out in the first couple days.

Well, at least you guys know if I reach Day Four, I am probably good.

Good luck, wolves!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Based on his posts earlier today, I still believe Barkeep was scanned, not Pass.

I tend to agree. If he had scanned me, why would he mention Barkeep in the same post as the one where he outs Chief Rum?

[ntndeacon]

Good Luck to all my fellow good guys. we got one of them. go get the other!

[path12]

Your friendly GM would like to graciously thank ntndeacon for volunteering to be your guest GM for tomorrow and Friday as path hits Vegas on opening week of college football. Chief is also available to answer questions and such but is working Friday.

Sorry for having to bail out, but c'mon, it's Vegas. Enjoy the game.

[Alan T]

I've done a pretty poor job of hunting back through people's posts this game due to RL stuff, and that includes what ntn had previously posted.. My only thoughts here are that I could go one of two ways trying to figure out ntn's intentions...

1) His feeling that Barkeep is good could be the same reason as I feel Barkeep is good, and has nothing to do with him using the seer role to figure it out.. If this is true, then Passacaglia likely was scanned by Ntn instead.

2) After Barkeep's mis-unvote Ntn decided to scan Barkeep and figure out if he was good or not, and found out he was good, thus leaving Passacaglia unscanned.

We know he scanned Chief on one of the days, his comment when he first voted Chief makes me a bit puzzled to when though. He mentioned that he said he had a hunch about Chief on day 2 (I don't remember him saying that, but I've been missing alot this game), but finally decided to vote him on day 3. Would this mean that he actually scanned Chief night 1, but didn't out himself just yet to try to find another one? If this was the case, then I would assume Ntn scanned Chief night 1, then Passacaglia night 2, as Barkeep's "flub" was on day 1, and if he was to be scanned, that was the likely night for it.

Either way, I still standby my previous statement that I feel Barkeep and Passacaglia are poor choices for today's votes. I also still stand by what I said that I felt Ntn's outing himself was obvious enough for almost anyone to catch it, and I doubt the wolves would have tried a move to save Chief. I don't "think" that as a wolf Jonathan would have hopped in and put himself out on a limb like that to protect Chief after a reveal.

I obviously feel less sure about Jonathan's being good as I do Barkeep or Pass.. but either way that leaves me the two choices to vote between of Cronin and Sndvls. My vote currently is on Cronin, but I could move it to Sndvls easily enough.. especially after the posts from last night, I feel a bit worse about sndvls now.

[Alan T]

Reading through last night, this quote caught me as a bit odd:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Vote SnDvls

I agree that Barkeep is likely cleared. Tomorrow will be another very busy day for me, but at some point I'm going to go back and see if anybody else jumps out at me, but I was suspicious of Sn early yesterday (after he voted Barkeep).

Its odd to me because this is how the exchange went yesterday morning:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'm going to stick with my vote from yesterday,

Vote Barkeep49

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I also have no reason to change my vote from yesterday

Vote Barkeep

nothing personal my friend

Originally Posted by st.cronin

hmmmmm

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I believe that it is a mistake to vote for Barkeep. I would hope those that hae done so would change there votes. I said yesterday that Ihad a feeling about someone. I am going to go with that feeling today.

Vote Chief Rum

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Ok, keeping in mind that Lathum trusted ntn (and Lathum's instincts are usually good)

unvote Barkeep49
vote Chief Rum

Maybe its nothing, but both Sndvls and Cronin voted barkeep day 2, then both came out on day 3 to vote him. Which is why I don't understand Cronin's point about finding Sndvls suspicious for voting Barkeep... Unless he meant because he didn't later move his vote? (Even though I don't remember seeing Sndvls back in the thread during most of the course of yesterday).. THen again, if Sndvls was the other wolf, and the piling on Chief had started, I too might have wanted to stay away from the thread to purposely not have to move my vote and then have deniability of saying it occured after I had left...

[st.cronin]

Alan, Sns vote for Barkeep bothered me because it seemed careless, like there was no thought behind it. Nothing really concrete, but as soon as he voted, my spidey sense went bananas, and I was ready to move my vote, if not on Sn SOMEWHERE.

[Alan T]

I guess that is what I am having problems with.. from my vantage point.. you and Sndvls made pretty much the exact same move/exact same play from day 2-day 3.. Why would he doing the same thing you did seem fishy to you?

Originally Posted by SnDvls

vote Barkeep

not quite sure I buy his mix up today

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Which part don't you buy? This thread verifies my story about being up later than I wanted and it being the first day of school. And let's just be clear: my mix-up was accidentally re-voting for someone. You really think it's a wolf play to unvote someone you're not voting for only to revote someone? I think it was clear what my intention was, to unvote the bodyguard, and as soon as it was pointed out I fixed it.

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Vote Barkeep49

Originally Posted by st.cronin

dola,

I don't have a real good feel for anybody in this game yet, but I'll be around today to move my vote if neccesary.

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I definitely would have, that's for sure. But I didn't, since I'm just a cast member.

I also think you would have made that same play.

Then on day 3, back to back posts about 12-14 minutes apart, the difference on day 3 was he voted later then the previous day and you voted earlier than the previous day and put your vote in first.

Now as a villager, I could buy you feeling odd about someone quickly throwing a vote on there right after you had to start off an early run, but in my mind that is cancelled out due to you having followed him on that vote the previous day.

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'm going to stick with my vote from yesterday,

Vote Barkeep49

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I also have no reason to change my vote from yesterday

Vote Barkeep

nothing personal my friend

And as I looked through to try to figure out the subtle stuff I missed from the past 2-3 days, I found this post from ntn which had been referenced by someone else earlier a few times.

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I tend to slightly trust Pass a little here, and so Chief's initial vote looks a little fishy to me. but I don't want to throw a fifth name out there this time. He might be someone for discussion tomorrow. Of the 4 candidates listed....

1. I have already said I at least trust Pass a touch so let's throw him out.

2. Barkeep's faux-pas with the voting makes him look more human to me, so for the moment he is out of danger from my vote.

3. I think 4 tied gives the wolves an easier time for a switch that will be not as noticed.

which leaves us with Render. I don't have strong feelings for him, but ibelieve he is the best I can vote for of those 4 candidates this evening. therefore....
Vote Render

This came on day 2, so obviously Ntn could have only scanned 1 of the 3 at this point (between Barkeep, Chief and Pass).. my guess is that he found chief's move suspicious, and then scanned him on day 2. He seems pretty cut and dry in support of Pass in point #1 here, plus putting it first in the list makes me feel that it was Passacaglia who was scanned day 1 and not Barkeep. His point about Barkeep references directly his feeling Barkeep's mess up makes him look more human so for the moment he is out of danger. This follows my exact reasoning as well for discounting barkeep as being bad.

So from this, I will assume that Passacaglia is good, and just stick with my "hunch" that Barkeep is good.

[st.cronin]

Except, Alan, on day 2, I had said I was planning to vote for Barkeep before the day started. So both days, it was me that moved first, although technically yes, Sn did post his vote first on day 2. A minor point, perhaps.

Anyway I can't really explain it very well, except to say that the sequence on day 3 set off alarm bells in my subconscious.

[Passacaglia]

cronin -- Why didn't the sequence on Day 2 set off alarm bells? You said you plan to vote for Barkeep at the end of Day 1, then SD votes for him early Day 2. Why didn't that worry you then? After seeing that, you put a second vote on BK, which could have started a bandwagon (not that that was necessarily a bad thing -- at that time, I was considering voting for BK, too, but for different reasons than the voting mixup). Is it just that it took TWO days of SD piling on to your decision for you to get worried?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

cronin -- Why didn't the sequence on Day 2 set off alarm bells? You said you plan to vote for Barkeep at the end of Day 1, then SD votes for him early Day 2. Why didn't that worry you then? After seeing that, you put a second vote on BK, which could have started a bandwagon (not that that was necessarily a bad thing -- at that time, I was considering voting for BK, too, but for different reasons than the voting mixup). Is it just that it took TWO days of SD piling on to your decision for you to get worried?

Neither sequence would normally alarm me at all, and I can't really explain why day 3 did, except that on day 3 I was much less worried about Barkeep being bad - my vote was much more of a trial vote, to see what reactions it inspired, whereas on day 2 I thought it would actually be good to see Barkeep lynched.

[SnDvls]

Not that it matters but I voted Barkeep on day 1 for his screw up, well before St. C mentioned his "I'm going to vote for BK on day two statement" so.

Like I said it's a he vs. me day so lets get this going and over with.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Not that it matters but I voted Barkeep on day 1 for his screw up, well before St. C mentioned his "I'm going to vote for BK on day two statement" so.

Like I said it's a he vs. me day so lets get this going and over with.

I don't actually know that that's a good village play, to tell the truth. The last few games have shaken my "werewolf" confidence, and I'm not at all sure of myself.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Not that it matters but I voted Barkeep on day 1 for his screw up, well before St. C mentioned his "I'm going to vote for BK on day two statement" so.

Like I said it's a he vs. me day so lets get this going and over with.

I see two votes for cronin, one for you, and one for Alan. And one of the votes for cronin is yours. Why are you leaving off Alan? Is it that you're thinking that if you vote for Alan, he'll put his vote on you, so it's self-preservation?

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I see two votes for cronin, one for you, and one for Alan. And one of the votes for cronin is yours. Why are you leaving off Alan? Is it that you're thinking that if you vote for Alan, he'll put his vote on you, so it's self-preservation?

Sorry I just didn't feel like the vibe was a three way race from the goings on today and last night. It seemed it was an either or with me and St. C....I guess looking back the only person really pushing the either or is Alan the 3rd person.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Sorry I just didn't feel like the vibe was a three way race from the goings on today and last night. It seemed it was an either or with me and St. C....I guess looking back the only person really pushing the either or is Alan the 3rd person.

I'm not going to vote for myself, and I still feel strongly that both Barkeep and Passacaglia are good. That leaves you, cronin and Jonathan. I explained my reasons for not looking at Jonathan today and that gives me the scenerio of trying to figure out between you two..

Its not that I'm pushing this as much as its all I have left after eliminating people.

[st.cronin]

The "New Guy" is still in the game, but his role doesn't matter anymore. So we likely have The Host and 1 dark spirit left. I am not the host, but it might make sense for the host to step forward at this point.

[Passacaglia]

Whoa. Really?

[Passacaglia]

No way.

VOTE ST.CRONIN

[Alan T]

Just a warning, I'm leaving in 4 hours for likely until deadline. I'll be more than happy to defend myself and answer any questions people may have if they are thinking of voting me. You just need to get them in the next few hours.

I'll be highly suspicious of anyone who tries to jump on me after I've announced I won't be here. It likely will just be someone looking for an easy lynch of a villager.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The "New Guy" is still in the game, but his role doesn't matter anymore.

Going back to the infamous Post 55, I don't think the New Guy role was in play. Either way it doesn't matter, but just thought I would throw it out there.

And I strongly disagree about the host coming out. There's still a chance that we will end up at 1:1 at the end and we'll need the host then to win. No need to come out now.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Ezarik

Going back to the infamous Post 55, I don't think the New Guy role was in play.

Never mind. I just read over that role description again and the New Guy doesn't know he's the New Guy, so that PM wouldn't have been sent. I'll shut up now.

[st.cronin]

There are 6 players left. Assuming that Barkeep is cleared and that there is one Dark Spirit left, if the Host comes out we have a 1/4 chance of lynching the last Dark Spirit. Maybe its too early, but it feels like grasping at straws, and we're making it very easy for the last Spirit to hide.

[st.cronin]

dola, the scenario I'm worried about is, lets say SnDvls is the Host, and he waits til close to deadline and he is the vote leader to reveal. That night he is killed, but everybody who voted for him is excused because they didn't know he was the Host.

[Alan T]

Based on previous hints that were dropped in earlier days, I am pretty sure I know who the host is, which is why I based my vote choices on Sndvls and St.cronin for today. I might be wrong, I've been wrong before and will be again in the future.. but I agree that I don't think the host should come out at all unless his neck is on the line.. Right now I don't see that is the case.

[st.cronin]

Well, if it must be me, let it be me. I'm playing a very blah game, not sure which way is up.

[Barkeep49]

I don't get why Alan is getting a free pass for his being around after a clear seer reveal and staying somewhere other than Chief. Further, he was party to a distracting conversation. I am honored that people voting for me is seen as suspicious, but I feel like Alan's actions are harder to explain than that of SnDvls or Cronin.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I don't get why Alan is getting a free pass for his being around after a clear seer reveal and staying somewhere other than Chief. Further, he was party to a distracting conversation. I am honored that people voting for me is seen as suspicious, but I feel like Alan's actions are harder to explain than that of SnDvls or Cronin.

Barkeep -- what do you think about who was cleared by ntn? I'd imagine that anyone thinking that voting for you is suspicious thinks you were cleared.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I don't get why Alan is getting a free pass for his being around after a clear seer reveal and staying somewhere other than Chief. Further, he was party to a distracting conversation. I am honored that people voting for me is seen as suspicious, but I feel like Alan's actions are harder to explain than that of SnDvls or Cronin.

I am glad you brought this up. Lets talk about this a little bit. When you have someone reveal the way Ntn did (where he didn't come right out and say he was the seer, but it was pretty obvious), you seem pretty sure on getting a 1 for 1 trade (as long as it wasn't bad luck and Ntn had scanned the "new guy". After that point, you are left the remaining of the game trying to discern from the voting patterns and comments in thread who the last wolf(wolves) are.

So if you are pretty sure to get one wolf there, which is better for the village at that point? A run away vote that everyone piles onto, or a vote that is kept closer to see if anyone makes any moves or tip their hands any? I was rather antagonistic to Jonathan last night because of his vote for me at that point felt like a wolfish move to me.. I pushed some buttons expecting certain types of responses, and the way he responded made me feel a bit better about him actually there. At the end of the day, where it was kept purposely close allowing for someone to make a move one way or another, and nothing happened it led me to my point this morning that I had with my vote.

I felt in what happened yesterday, the other wolf knew their teammate was a gonner, so might as well just blend in to the crowd.. Not make a fuss, not draw attention to yourself. The way for a wolf to win when its just one left is basically to try to buy as much trust as they can.. They will likely remove people who are trusted the next two nights (ie: Passacaglia and to a lesser degree you/Barkeep), in hopes of getting the final day vote between them and two villagers.. and then having one villager make the wrong guess leaving it at 1 to 1 odds.. Thats the only way they can win then.

I could be really wrong about JOnathan, but right now I feel the final wolf is either sndvls or St.cronin based on what I have seen so far this game. I haven't played a great game here, but I'm trying to read into things in places that might help.

[Alan T]

Dola, and just to clarify, I was around in the thread at the end last night (not something that will happen tonight though), so I had full ability to move my vote onto Chief if needed at the end. It became very obvious though that Chief had given up and that wasn't going to happen at the finale though. Usually a wolf won't make a last minute move to save another wolf unless the game was on the line. With there being 8 people left, and 2 wolves, I don't see that they would have done it there, but felt it worth taking the chance at keeping it close just in case.

[st.cronin]

I felt like I understood what Alan was doing re: Chief and didn't think it was particularly wolfish. It's not out of the question that he is a wolf, though. I still don't understand his exchange with Jonathan E, though.

[Alan T]

My early exchange with Jonathan was mostly out of disbelief. I spent a good bit of time looking through the rules regarding Telle's role. Then he seemed to make stuff up to call me a lier.. Since for me it seemed obvious that ntn was handing us chief on a silver platter, combined with him quoting stuff that wasn't in the rules, I felt somethign was really off about it.

Then when I actually clicked on his follow through link to the quote, I saw it was something Path posted later on page 2 regarding the role. At that point, I changed my tone a bit and was more pushing Jonathan's buttons to see how he would respond. If he was a fellow wolf of Chief's his goal would have been to look alot less supportive of Chief, and more of someone trying to throw something out into the mix to distract the vote away. If there were two wolves, you don't want to get caught with both of them having their pants down after a seer reveal... So the fact he stayed so heavy set on that conversation, I started realizing that I didn't think he was the other wolf, and left the conversation at that. I feel this is a much bigger assumption on my part than my assumption that Barkeep isn't a wolf, but still its one I feel I have to make in order to narrow my targets down to two.

My goal today was to try to figure out one or two targets that i feel is pretty confidently not the host and has a decent chance to at least break even chance of being the last wolf.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I felt like I understood what Alan was doing re: Chief and didn't think it was particularly wolfish. It's not out of the question that he is a wolf, though. I still don't understand his exchange with Jonathan E, though.

I agree with the first part of this -- I think Alan showed that he knew what was going on yesterday. And I can see where he's coming from with regard to JE -- as I said yesterday, I read post #2 also, and wasn't sure if Telle knew who the wolves were. I don't know how it expanded from that -- I'm willing to buy that Alan was trying to set us up for the next day.

[Barkeep49]

I hate to get all meta on us, but I feel like we've reached a point where people are intentionally going with typical wolf moves and then claiming "why would I obviously do wolfy thing X"? I think we all agree that Alan knew what was going on yesterday. At deadline he could have switched his vote if he truly was trying to keep things close, but he didn't. If he knew CR was a wolf he should have made sure, however it looked, that he was on the right side of that event.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Barkeep -- what do you think about who was cleared by ntn? I'd imagine that anyone thinking that voting for you is suspicious thinks you were cleared.

Honestly I think you were cleared and not me by NTN. He used the same phrase (a gut feeling) about both of you. That consistency in phrasing is important to deciphering his non-outright reveal.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Honestly I think you were cleared and not me by NTN. He used the same phrase (a gut feeling) about both of you. That consistency in phrasing is important to deciphering his non-outright reveal.

That's interesting. At first, I agreed with you, that ntn played the seer role pretty well -- but now with all this doubt, I'm not so sure. I guess for me, it's all the same -- I know I'm good, and I think Barkeep is good.

Anyway, perhaps the important thing is the vote. I was all but set to vote for SD, until cronin pushed for the host to reveal (an obviously woflish move, and I'm not giving him a "why would I do that if I were a wolf" pass). But I feel like my vote could be changed back -- I was totally on cronin's side regarding voting patterns between the two, and I felt like SD might have been pulling for a 1-1 trade.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I hate to get all meta on us, but I feel like we've reached a point where people are intentionally going with typical wolf moves and then claiming "why would I obviously do wolfy thing X"? I think we all agree that Alan knew what was going on yesterday. At deadline he could have switched his vote if he truly was trying to keep things close, but he didn't. If he knew CR was a wolf he should have made sure, however it looked, that he was on the right side of that event.

To be fair, the reason I removed you and Jonathan from my voting choices were because of such type of decisions.. I can't speak for everyone, but I know my main reason to not consider voting you thus far is because I don't see you making your day 1 move as a wolf.. This entire game is about choices like that.. If you as a wolf made that move on purpose to try to gain such trust, then you have done an excellent job ... I just don't think at a point when we have no more seer that we can take the chance on chasing wild goose hunts like that.. all we can do is go off of what we think a wolf would do.

You and I might have completely different thoughts about what a wolf would do, but both of us are basing our decisions on that.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

It doesn't matter now, but

VOTE ST.CRONIN

[Chief Rum]

Anyone seen ntn?

I can run the deadline, but since it was supposed to be ntn, I didn't want to unnecessarily step on his toes.

I will give him a few minutes, and if I don't see him, I will end the day.

[Alan T]

I saw ntn on about 30-45 min before the deadline, but haven't seen him since.

[ntndeacon]

Sorry bout that folks. Let me catch up and iwill end the day.

[ntndeacon]

I have the following vote.
st. cronin(4)-AlanT,SnDvLs,Pass,Jonathan
Alan (1)-Barkeep
SnDvLs (1)- st. cronin

As the shrinking number of people remaining in the house discussed the loss of the empath, and what his mysterious words meant. Furtive glances were headed in st cronin's direction on an increasing basis. Finally Someone yelled, "It's that darned st. cronin that is the cause of these deaths." And Using Lathum's old camera equipment they bashed his head into jam. They waited. and they waited. No change.

st. cronin was a Cast Member