Werewolf VII- Return to XCom

[Mr. Wednesday]

As far as voting goes, he voted Digamma (lone vote there) on day 1, very early on too -- not sure why HoopsGuy turned and piled on Blade right after that -- and has not yet cast a vote today.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

In post #208 I cast my vote saying "Hope we don't screw this up", looking for a fellow grunt to pick up on this and complete part of the description in their reply. But in the very next post Blade drops half of the description and then the other half a few replies down. So now that information is completely shot for authenticating 'grunt' status.

Yeah, well, if you don't buy it as authentication from him, you shouldn't buy it for authentication from anyone else either.

[Peregrine]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I am far from certain, but I am guessing that hoopsguy was converted last night. He "outted" himself as a grunt immediately after Schmidty was lynched. That pretty much told the aliens that you didn't have any special powers that could harm them (like a counterstrike) and made you unlikely to be lynched in the following days.

Voting for Blade6119 after he, more or less, verified his role as a grunt smells fishy to me.

I Vote hoopsguy

Hmm, Swaggs, I see some problems here.

1) Hoopsguy voted for Blade /before/ he "verified" his role, not after, like a half hour before.

2) Keep in mind that you voted for Blade yesterday with a middle "safe" vote.

3) You're trying to throw suspicion on someone I think pretty likely to be a grunt, since he was the first one to mention it before the aliens converted anyone.

4) Isn't it more likely that the aliens would have ignored a known grunt and tried to shoot for someone with special powers? I know I would have. Each grunt that identifies himself only makes their job easier.

5) You suggested that Fouts give up details of his role, I'm not sure any villager would want that as it would make him alient bait. Of course you could both be aliens, so this is a fairly weak reason, that's why its last.

unvote Fouts
vote Swaggs

Any defense?

[hoopsguy]

Nope, not anymore Mr. Wednesday. But before the full reveal of the text I would have been willing to believe it. Maybe been conned by it, but you are absolutely correct. That information validates no one at this point.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

Hmm, Swaggs, I see some problems here.

1) Hoopsguy voted for Blade /before/ he "verified" his role, not after, like a half hour before.

2) Keep in mind that you voted for Blade yesterday with a middle "safe" vote.

3) You're trying to throw suspicion on someone I think pretty likely to be a grunt, since he was the first one to mention it before the aliens converted anyone.

4) Isn't it more likely that the aliens would have ignored a known grunt and tried to shoot for someone with special powers? I know I would have. Each grunt that identifies himself only makes their job easier.

5) You suggested that Fouts give up details of his role, I'm not sure any villager would want that as it would make him alient bait. Of course you could both be aliens, so this is a fairly weak reason, that's why its last.

unvote Fouts
vote Swaggs

Any defense?

1.) hoopsguy immediately and correctly identified Schmidty as a fellow grunt shortly after Schmidty's fate was sealed and Schmidty used the word "grunt".

2.) Keep in mind it was the first day in voting and you cannot form a pattern from one event.

3.) Blade6119 has given up his role/powers and hoopsguy seemed to confirm that what he said was correct. Yet hoopsguy voted for Blade6119 with what I consider shaky evidence.

4.) I disagree. hoopsguy outted himself last night as a "good guy." That makes him unlikely to be lynched and, thus, makes the aliens more likely to be selected in a lynching. Also, identifying himself as a grunt let the aliens know that he would be an easy kill/convert, as he wouldn't have a counterstrike or do anything random. In the game that I was a werewolf, I know I preferred getting the numbers more to my liking before doing anything random.

5.) I have my reasons for asking Fouts about his role based on some of his wording.

[JeeberD]

I hate to do it, but Blade's defense seems pretty solid. He nailed the grunt description and I really doubt that the aliens would convert someone who nearly got blasted the first day.

I don't know who to vote for at this point...

[hoopsguy]

In the game that I was a werewolf, I know I preferred getting the numbers more to my liking before doing anything random.

Just curious, but how far do you need to skew the numbers in your favor as the enemy? They were starting off with better numbers than any previous werewolf game I have read.

I'm sorry that people view my pursuit of Blade as some kind of sinister maneuver. I suppose the safe play would have been to be the third man on kingfc, who isn't around to defend himself. That would be playing to survive, not playing to win. If I go out here it will because I was playing to win and I felt the best way to do that was to eliminate a very, very strong doubt.

[digamma]

I'm sort of at a loss here too.

Right now, we've got a couple of votes for king and a vote each for four guys.

I lean towards believing Blade's defense.

hoopsguy has been leading the alien-outing charge, yet something does seem a little off about his attack on Blade.

Peregrine's reason for suspecting Swaggs may be the strongest accusation to date.

In summary, I got virtually nothing at this point.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Just curious, but how far do you need to skew the numbers in your favor as the enemy? They were starting off with better numbers than any previous werewolf game I have read.

It was more the fear of having an ineffective attack and/or having someone like a hunter counter-attack. When you have only a few people, losing one is devastating.

[hoopsguy]

I'm willing to give ground to my fellow troops if everyone seems to believe Blade - but I'm obviously concerned that will appear to be flip-flopping and make me more of a suspect.

If Blade is among the aliens at the end of this I'm going to be dropping some serious "I told you so's" in the post-mortem.

Last game I let Thomkal talk me out of lynching Jeff - that didn't turn out very well for mankind. Maybe that is why I'm being so stubborn here.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't think flip-flopping gets you in trouble on its own merits... it gets you in trouble in the context of who you flip-flop from and to, and then only when the roles of the votees get revealed.

[Peregrine]

We have to be careful here about the idea that Blade was converted. Even if he was, it's going to be much easier to go after any original aliens than anyone who was converted, simply because we won't have to be going through posts and trying to second-guess everything they said.

Even if he's not an alien, I'm not buying Swaggs idea about the "counter attack." Even if a player had a counter attack, the aliens still have huge numbers here, and unless they have some knowledge about us and our roles that we don't know about (possible) they can afford to lose one in fishing for the Seer or other key roles.

[hoopsguy]

That's the problem, Wednesday. The theory of the game I have concocted up to this point revolves around lynching alien Blade today and then taking a hard look at the other three candidates I had isolated last night. I'm still pretty sure this is a better approach than anything else I have seen revealed to date, Grunt reveal notwithstanding. If there had not been a conversion last night then I would have been forced to admit the flaws in this approach.

Kingfc (weird pilot role) and Peregrine (who I would convert, if I was an alien) are the two guys that I'm the most leery about outside of my initial four. But I really didn't want to go that direction yet, since I think the original approach is yielding one of the aliens. Plan B distracts from Plan A, or something like that.

Voting time is coming up quickly ...

[Raiders Army]

I'm still going with kingfc22. I wonder what he has to say about all of this...

But if he responds, I'm very much inclined to go with Swaggs since why give yourself up even if you can counter attack? We're already short on numbers as it is...

[Mr. Wednesday]

I would be really interested in seeing Neon_Chaos's thoughts at this point, considering that he cast the lone vote for Qwikshot yesterday.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, I see he's now reading the thread, so... maybe the wait won't be quite as long as I thought.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

We have to be careful here about the idea that Blade was converted. Even if he was, it's going to be much easier to go after any original aliens than anyone who was converted, simply because we won't have to be going through posts and trying to second-guess everything they said.

Even if he's not an alien, I'm not buying Swaggs idea about the "counter attack." Even if a player had a counter attack, the aliens still have huge numbers here, and unless they have some knowledge about us and our roles that we don't know about (possible) they can afford to lose one in fishing for the Seer or other key roles.

Why is it so hard to buy?

If their goal is to have even numbers so that they can overthrow whoever is left, then each of the alien that dies damages their chances of evening the numbers.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I would be really interested in seeing Neon_Chaos's thoughts at this point, considering that he cast the lone vote for Qwikshot yesterday.

I'm interested in exploring this angle. Qwikshot has only a couple of posts today. I see him lurking down there.

Here's his one substantive post today:

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

Just one thing, the aliens can email amongst themselves right...so what if the one they assimilated was a grunt, and therefore they could forward the description to the accused to prove credibility?

I think he is probably correct, but I don't think we've had confirmation to this point of alien abilities.

The second half could be used by an alien to throw suspicion on someone who the aliens knew wasn't one of them--in this case, Blade.

What say you Qwikshot?

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

I'm still going with kingfc22. I wonder what he has to say about all of this...

But if he responds, I'm very much inclined to go with Swaggs since why give yourself up even if you can counter attack? We're already short on numbers as it is...

I'm not understanding this logic.

I'm saying that they (may) have attacked hoopsguy because they knew he would be an easy kill/addition to their numbers. If you are looking to kill someone and/or gain numbers on the opposition, would you rather kill the person that you knew would not fight back or risk getting yourself killed to kill an unknown?

[Fouts]

You guys are all over the place. We need a concentrated effort. I already posted who I think is in the clear. Lets organize!

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by digamma

I'm interested in exploring this angle. Qwikshot has only a couple of posts today. I see him lurking down there.

Here's his one substantive post today:


I think he is probably correct, but I don't think we've had confirmation to this point of alien abilities.

The second half could be used by an alien to throw suspicion on someone who the aliens knew wasn't one of them--in this case, Blade.

What say you Qwikshot?

I was just stating that a mad dash would be rash...the first one who gets it always tends to be an innocent, but because of the nature of the game, you /have/ to go with the flow the first time.

Now I was thinking how easy this was to vote for and then I realized that when one of us was assimilated that the information of that person could be pm'd to blade.

I don't really point and accuse, I'm just stating that the tunnel light might just be a train coming at you.

[Vince]

Swaggs, if they were taking hoopsguy at face value, I'd think knowing that he's 'just a lowly grunt' would make him a much bigger candidate to remain alive. Sure, there might be some kind of counterstrike ability out there, but the opportunity cost of eliminating a much more valuable role to the good guys (like bodyguard/seer) is too good to pass up. Especially if you know that hoopsguy can't hurt you.

I voted for you on day 1 rather blindly, now there seems to be some "evidence" (I use that term very loosely) against you. I'll stay on that tack. I vote Swaggs.

[Peregrine]

Why is it so hard to buy?

If their goal is to have even numbers so that they can overthrow whoever is left, then each of the alien that dies damages their chances of evening the numbers.

Well we assume that's their goal, I don't think we know for sure. And in most games, the wolves will rarely take the easy target (the confirmed villager) for the simple fact that he has no special powers, so he can be ignored. Whereas if they convert a Seer or Doctor role, that's huge for them. I think you're trying to interpret a lot about Aliens we have no information about. I'm not saying Blade isn't converted, he may well be, but trying to focus our attention on someone who may or may not be converted is a distraction at this point. We need to be looking at people who are suspicious as the main aliens. People like Swaggs, JeeberD, Neon_Chaos, and Vince.

[Neon_Chaos]

Mr. Wednesday, you rang?

Basing off my initial lengthy post, I am still on the watch for the four middle voters that took the voting into a 3-3 tie, kingfc22, digamma, JeeberD and Swaggs.

Although the hoopsguy/Blade6119 drama is also a fun, but confusing read. And of course, taking into consideration the last 3 votes of Mr Wednesday, Fouts and Qwikshot... I'm having a hard time deciding who to vote for.

I think that Peregrine's basically a grunt... not sure if the aliens went after him, but at this point I trust him more than anyone else in here. Raiders Army, I think kingfc22 is less suspicious than Swaggs, Swaggs' vote was the one that made it a 3-3 tie between Blade and Schmidty.

God help us all if we don't lynch an alien today.

Vote Swaggs

[hoopsguy]

Just to bend our thinking here a little bit - given that the numbers have the potential to be stacked quickly against X-Com via conversions and wrong kills, are we correct in assuming that even number of aliens/humans is still the end-game? It has been in every one I have seen up to this point, but I don't recall seeing that explicitly stated at the start of this thread. Re-read post #29 and see if I'm missing something. There certainly were missions where X-Com soldiers were outnumbered (um, Cydonia?).

SirFozzie, can you confirm that this is the alien victory condition?

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I'm not understanding this logic.

I'm saying that they (may) have attacked hoopsguy because they knew he would be an easy kill/addition to their numbers. If you are looking to kill someone and/or gain numbers on the opposition, would you rather kill the person that you knew would not fight back or risk getting yourself killed to kill an unknown?

????

Okay. Maybe I didn't make myself clear, and maybe that has to do with the evening alcohol I consume. (BTW, I'm not an alkie, but I do like my buzz). I thought my post was pretty clear; however, I guess I was confused by Peregrine's post saying that you said you had a counter attack power....rereading it, I see you accused the aliens of having a counter attack power. Is that correct? If so, then I guess I'll stick with kingfc22...especially since he hasn't shown up to defend himself and it seems as if everyone is trying to divert attention away from him.

[Fouts]

Well, time is running out. In order to keep myself from being suspicious I'll vote for the guy who I was supposedly connected to since I inadvertently supported him.

I vote Blade6119

[Mr. Wednesday]

As a practical matter, absent special "kill aliens" powers by non-grunt roles, if the aliens get equal numbers then they effectively win -- they can coordinate operation of the guns to wipe out the non-aliens.

[Raiders Army]

Hey, and let me re-read this to see who's trying to divert attention for him...remember I voted for him first today and whether that will haunt me or exonerate me I'm not sure. The more he stays quiet and the more attention is given to other people, it makes me think of an alliance...an alien alliance.

[Vince]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

I'm not saying Blade isn't converted, he may well be, but trying to focus our attention on someone who may or may not be converted is a distraction at this point. We need to be looking at people who are suspicious as the main aliens.

I think the issue is that Blade might indeed be one of the initial aliens -- and that if the converted person were to have passed along the initial grunt role and all of its description, that Blade could have repeated that and made him look like he had at least started the game as a grunt.

[hoopsguy]

Agreed, Mr. Wednesday - but this is a hidden roles game and Fozzie is promising tricks. So I figured it made sense to verify that this is a victory condition.

[Swaggs]

Well, the thinking I am using in trying to figure out how the aliens are thinking is based upon our (successful) strategy that we used in the second Werewolf game. Our main goal was self-preservation, so that we could get numbers as soon as possible (and projected out, by days, how we could get there). We did not want to vote together, unless it was for self preservation and our biggest fears were getting blocked by the guards and getting randomly killed by the DUke or hunter.

I will tell you that you do not want to lynch me today. It would not help us.

[hoopsguy]

Vince, just in case I wasn't being clear earlier that is exactly what I think happened (Blade = alien at start), not that he was converted last night as Peregrine has speculated.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Vince

I think the issue is that Blade might indeed be one of the initial aliens -- and that if the converted person were to have passed along the initial grunt role and all of its description, that Blade could have repeated that and made him look like he had at least started the game as a grunt.

While true and you're not the first one to bring this up, I don't think it's applicable. No offense, but Blade doesn't seem like he's the sharpest knife in the drawer. His posts and various errors in spelling and English reflect that. I don't think he would be smart enough to get the description and post it to exonerate himself. Even so, it would be a stupid gambit since we could pick up on it easily.

Then again, you do what they think you'll do, because they'll think you won't do what they think you'll do, and that's the best strategy within a strategy. Then again, I don't think he's smart enough to do such a complex strategy. I've just run out of hands.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

????

Okay. Maybe I didn't make myself clear, and maybe that has to do with the evening alcohol I consume. (BTW, I'm not an alkie, but I do like my buzz). I thought my post was pretty clear; however, I guess I was confused by Peregrine's post saying that you said you had a counter attack power....rereading it, I see you accused the aliens of having a counter attack power. Is that correct? If so, then I guess I'll stick with kingfc22...especially since he hasn't shown up to defend himself and it seems as if everyone is trying to divert attention away from him.

I am saying that the aliens would not to randomly pick someone that could counterstrike and kill them. I believe that they would rather get a sure kill and preserve themselves. I am not saying I have a counter-attack.

[Raiders Army]

Gotcha.

[JeeberD]

Peregrine has made some valid points about Swaggs...

Vote Swaggs

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Vince

I think the issue is that Blade might indeed be one of the initial aliens -- and that if the converted person were to have passed along the initial grunt role and all of its description, that Blade could have repeated that and made him look like he had at least started the game as a grunt.

I considered this when making my post accusing hoopsguy.

My thinking was that if 2 or more people jumped on the bandwagon against hoopsfan (after I first accused him), they might be aliens trying to pull the heat off of Blade6119.

[Raiders Army]

Also, can I petition the Werewolf thread creators for a Seer position next time? I'm tired of being in the dark and not knowing what the Hell is going on. Three out of three games I try to make the best sense out of stuff. At least last game I got a kill power and took out KevinNU7.

[Peregrine]

Well keep in mind that a hidden roles game is even more murky than most, RA.

[Vince]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

While true and you're not the first one to bring this up, I don't think it's applicable. No offense, but Blade doesn't seem like he's the sharpest knife in the drawer. His posts and various errors in spelling and English reflect that. I don't think he would be smart enough to get the description and post it to exonerate himself. Even so, it would be a stupid gambit since we could pick up on it easily.

Then again, you do what they think you'll do, because they'll think you won't do what they think you'll do, and that's the best strategy within a strategy. Then again, I don't think he's smart enough to do such a complex strategy. I've just run out of hands.

Blade's mental prowess aside -- the aliens are just as smart as their smartest member. If this is anything like the last werewolf game (where I was a bad guy), they get to communicate and form plans via private messages.

[hoopsguy]

This feels like a very weird bandwagon on Swaggs. I guess I should be happy since he pointed at me earlier but I'm not. He was near the bottom of the list of guys I was considering. One way or another, we'll find out soon enough I guess.

[hoopsguy]

RA, I'm not sure there is a lamer position than to come in on the third day, inheriting the sheriffs man who has already used his convert power. And all the other sheriff's men were dead. In a game where virtually everyone had some power that was a serious buzzkill.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Well, the thinking I am using in trying to figure out how the aliens are thinking is based upon our (successful) strategy that we used in the second Werewolf game. Our main goal was self-preservation, so that we could get numbers as soon as possible (and projected out, by days, how we could get there). We did not want to vote together, unless it was for self preservation and our biggest fears were getting blocked by the guards and getting randomly killed by the DUke or hunter.

I will tell you that you do not want to lynch me today. It would not help us.

I support this post.

[Vince]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

This feels like a very weird bandwagon on Swaggs. I guess I should be happy since he pointed at me earlier but I'm not. He was near the bottom of the list of guys I was considering. One way or another, we'll find out soon enough I guess.

I feel much the same way, and his recent posts aren't helping (this coming from a guy who has now voted for him twice).

On day one, I just randomly picked someone. I don't like bandwagons, and I didn't want to be associated with one. Today...well, today I just got confused. My guts said Peregrine, but after re-reading things, I've had second thoughts. What convinced me to un-vote him was that he was posting too much strategic stuff -- it would be a great cover for an alien, but it was crossing the line a little.

The more I think about it, the more I start to think that a savvy guy like Peregrine might just do something like that -- pull off a huge 'bluff' so to speak by being one of the most vocal people here. He was the first to vote yesterday, and he missed. Today, he randomly threw out Fouts' name, then changed it up. Do those things tell us anything? I don't really think so, but it's about all we have to go on. His analysis on Swaggs is fairly good, but Swaggs hasn't done much since being fingered to convince me that he really is an alien. Reluctantly, I'm going to stick with Swaggs, but my guts are hollering at me that it's not a good move.

[Qwikshot]

I saw something last night...I think it was a random occurance but I narrowed down who one of the aliens is.

[SirFozzie]

Wow, this is going to be a hell of a vote to tabulate. Very interesting.

[Qwikshot]

Narrowed it down to 3 anyway.

[Swaggs]

I am not an alien. Lynching me is just going to put the numbers more in the aliens' favor.

[Qwikshot]

This is the reason I was so silent...I was waiting for a reply.