A Wererolf, a Vampire, and a Villager Walk Into a Bar (Game Over, Vampires Win)

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

It’s day 1. What is there to conclusively say?

There's always lots to say, even on day 1. For example why you are voting or unvoting people. Quiet people who are trying very hard to not piss anyone off, and go with the crowd multiple times without much explanation have a habit of being a bit suspect.

[Telle]

A death with no information about it is a complete and utter waste. That's what a default-vote for a no-show would be.

And the number of deaths only matter if they're good guys that are dead. With the bandwagonning on voting for bhlloy because he hadn't shown up yet, it's likely he was a good guy and you and your bad guy friends were hoping to get an easy kill.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Telle

If my spreadsheet is accurate.. 6 of the first 10 votes were for bhlloy, with the other 4 votes split on 2 people.

At any given time it was never more than a 2 vote difference. 5-3 was where it maxed out, then things leveled out more and there hasn't been a more than 1 vote difference since.

[GoldenEagle]

UNVOTE bhlloy
VOTE henry296

I want to see where things go from here and force those who have an inconsequential vote at the moment to make some decisions.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by RendeR

At any given time it was never more than a 2 vote difference. 5-3 was where it maxed out, then things leveled out more and there hasn't been a more than 1 vote difference since.

You're right. Looking closer at the spreadsheet, one of the votes for henry was an unvote of bhlloy. So the net number on him only got to 5, but there were still 6 votes for him within the first 10 votes.

[bhlloy]

I'm very interested to know why RendeR and Henry aren't on me right now. Either very bad bad teammates who have been caught with their pants down and are waiting to try to find the right time to sacrifice one if needed, or genuine villagers who we might not want to lose. Hmmmmm.... we'd be very lucky if we had 2 of the baddies in the top 3 day 1.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Telle

A death with no information about it is a complete and utter waste. That's what a default-vote for a no-show would be.

And the number of deaths only matter if they're good guys that are dead. With the bandwagonning on voting for bhlloy because he hadn't shown up yet, it's likely he was a good guy and you and your bad guy friends were hoping to get an easy kill.

I'm pretty sure I've made it clear that learning his role would be a very important piece of information, thats not nothing, along with the fact that it keeps all the active players alive at the same time, is also not nothing

It negates your entire argument.

And now you're blatantly accusing me of being bad on night 1? Interesting.

[GoldenEagle]

It is probably too late to get much momentum going on Telle today, but I certainly think that is somewhere we can look tomorrow.

[bhlloy]

unvote LSG
Vote henry296

No point in being the only vote on somebody 20 mins before deadline, and interested to see some movement between the 2 up there

[EagleFan]

As of post 259:

henry296 4 - Autumn (82), timmae (93), GoldenEagle (254), bhlloy (259)
RendeR 3 - britrock88 (142), Telle (145), Chief Rum (221)
bhlloy 1 - LoneStarGirl (231)

No current vote - henry296, RendeR

[henry296]

vote Telle

That is my best guess. I don’t have any reason to strongly suggest anyone else. We are all blind and she is making something out of nothing.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Telle

As of #239:

RendeR 3 - britrock88 (142), Telle (145), Chief Rum (221)
bhlloy 2 - GoldenEagle (112), LoneStarGirl (231)
henry296 2 - Autumn (82), timmae (93)
LoneStarGirl 1 - bhlloy (230)

No current vote - henry296, RendeR

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

UNVOTE bhlloy
VOTE henry296

I want to see where things go from here and force those who have an inconsequential vote at the moment to make some decisions.

RendeR 3 - britrock88 (142), Telle (145), Chief Rum (221)
henry296 3 - Autumn (82), timmae (93), GoldenEagle (~255)
LoneStarGirl 1 - bhlloy (230)
bhlloy 1 - LoneStarGirl (231)

RendeR and henry holding onto their votes; LSG and bhlloy locked onto each other with maybe the more consequential outlying votes as things stand.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I'm very interested to know why RendeR and Henry aren't on me right now. Either very bad bad teammates who have been caught with their pants down and are waiting to try to find the right time to sacrifice one if needed, or genuine villagers who we might not want to lose. Hmmmmm.... we'd be very lucky if we had 2 of the baddies in the top 3 day 1.

I've stated this, multiple times. My entire reasoning was based on you being a no-show.

That is no longer the case, so I moved my vote.

As stated above I'd have it on Telle right now based on her specious arguments the entire time and her atypical aggressive tone in everything she's been posting.

Unfortunately I like staying alive, so until I am safe I have to save my vote for defense.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by britrock88

RendeR 3 - britrock88 (142), Telle (145), Chief Rum (221)
henry296 3 - Autumn (82), timmae (93), GoldenEagle (~255)
LoneStarGirl 1 - bhlloy (230)
bhlloy 1 - LoneStarGirl (231)

RendeR and henry holding onto their votes; LSG and bhlloy locked onto each other with maybe the more consequential outlying votes as things stand.

Dang, this was current as of 258 and obviously out-of-date by the time I finished it.

[Telle]

We already know that at least one role isn't in the game. It's not unlikely that multiple roles aren't in the game. How would knowing one role that's no longer in the game help anything? The vote record is the most important piece of data in this game. If people default-vote, that data for day 1 becomes meaningless.

[bhlloy]

FWIW if i'd really been inactive night 1 I'd have expected to be voted off, and would 100% vote that way as a goodie. But I also think it's stupid to think a baddie would defend the inactive baddie in that situation, so I don't like RendeR's logic here.

(and yes I've conflated wolf and villager like seventeen times already, so I'll be using generic goodie/baddie terms moving forward)

[LoneStarGirl]

Unvote Bhlloy

Vote Render

A tie this late can cause some interesting movement. I’m staying by my computer until 9:00

[Telle]

#267
RendeR and henry296 tied w/ 4 votes each, 1 for me

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Can I really not get anyone to come with me on LSG? Quiet as hell, lots of posts saying stuff but not really saying stuff. Unvoted me with the herd after I showed up but didn't really explain it. Defensive when I just put the first vote on earlier today?

I'm not feeling RendeR particularly, but I'll switch in a bit unless the situation changes. Sorry buddy. I'd rather be on LSG or GE.

Funny enough, now that bhlloy is here, I'm having the same problem. Why does the above post make it seem like there are no other options, when Henry is there with votes on the table? It feels like people are actively avoiding choosing him as an option. So many people that I now feel like I'm missing something.

[EagleFan]

Soon they will bring one to us, we will be one step closer...

[henry296]

I’m not moving to Render since we have the same point of view. I’m willing to sacrifice myself for the information to the team. I have no role so I’m not a big loss.

[RendeR]

As I said, I will break or cause a tie in self defense. I am willing to consider other votes if I know I am safe near deadline. I agree with GE, Telle needs to be seriously studied for tomorrow.

[EagleFan]

As of post 273:

henry296 4 - Autumn (82), timmae (93), GoldenEagle (254), bhlloy (259)
RendeR 4 - britrock88 (142), Telle (145), Chief Rum (221), LoneStarGirl (267)
Telle 1 - henry296 (261)

No current vote - RendeR

[Autumn]

We've seen lots of votes, that will be useful eventually. Does someone have the vote count as of "deadline" last night handy?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by henry296

I’m not moving to Render since we have the same point of view. I’m willing to sacrifice myself for the information to the team. I have no role so I’m not a big loss.

What does "same point of view" mean?

[Telle]

Originally Posted by henry296

I’m not moving to Render since we have the same point of view. I’m willing to sacrifice myself for the information to the team. I have no role so I’m not a big loss.

? If you're considering self-voting, that makes no sense whichever side of the game you're on. If you're a good guy, don't be stupid and cause us to lose one! If you're a baddie, your numbers are already limited so why would you do that? Unless you're a baddie and know that RendeR is one too but he's a more powerful one so if it comes down to the two of you then it's better for you to die than him?

[GoldenEagle]

Maybe it is not to late to get something going on Telle.

UNVOTE henry296
VOTE Telle

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by henry296

I’m not moving to Render since we have the same point of view. I’m willing to sacrifice myself for the information to the team. I have no role so I’m not a big loss.

This is a strange take. Even a vanilla villager is very valuable in this format. And yeah, what exactly do you mean?

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by henry296

vote Telle

That is my best guess. I don’t have any reason to strongly suggest anyone else. We are all blind and she is making something out of nothing.

This reads as a good guy giving an honest read.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Telle

? If you're considering self-voting, that makes no sense whichever side of the game you're on. If you're a good guy, don't be stupid and cause us to lose one! If you're a baddie, your numbers are already limited so why would you do that? Unless you're a baddie and know that RendeR is one too but he's a more powerful one so if it comes down to the two of you then it's better for you to die than him?

Feels like the classic "go passive aggressive close to deadline to save self" move to me. I'm actually feeling better about this vote right now.

[Autumn]

GE, to me part of what makes Telle suspicious is her defense of Henry yesterday, so I'm happy with a Henry vote tonight as that will tell us whether that was actually suspicious or not.

[GoldenEagle]

My vote was never solid on henry. I just wanted to see what the movement looked like. I find Telle's reasoning of defending the no show vote very strange. I think she pushed that narrative a bit too hard.

[RendeR]

VOTE TELLE

[Telle]

Originally Posted by britrock88

As of #146:

bhlloy 4 (henry, GE, render, LSG)
henry 3 (autumn, timmae, CR)
render 2 (britrock, telle)

Post #149 last night, shortly before 10pm. No votes after that before what was then the deadline.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by Autumn

What does "same point of view" mean?

We are making the same argument about Telle.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Maybe it is not to late to get something going on Telle.

UNVOTE henry296
VOTE Telle

This frees up others to move in response.

UNVOTE RendeR
VOTE Telle

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

GE, to me part of what makes Telle suspicious is her defense of Henry yesterday, so I'm happy with a Henry vote tonight as that will tell us whether that was actually suspicious or not.

I think it also gives us a pretty good read on britrock, given that drive by above

[henry296]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

This is a strange take. Even a vanilla villager is very valuable in this format. And yeah, what exactly do you mean?

There is at least some chance the RendeR has a more valuable role than me and therefore it is better for him to stay.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Autumn

GE, to me part of what makes Telle suspicious is her defense of Henry yesterday, so I'm happy with a Henry vote tonight as that will tell us whether that was actually suspicious or not.

When was I defending henry?

[LoneStarGirl]

Vote update??

[bhlloy]

My spidey sense is tingling right now with BR showing up 10 before deadline to move heat off henry, I have to say

[Telle]

If you all jump on me now, PLEASE "vote RendeR" tomorrow after you see that I come up good. No, this isn't desperate effort to sway you vote now. Just DO NOT FORGET tomorrow. Please.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I think it also gives us a pretty good read on britrock, given that drive by above

I haven’t left...

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Telle

When was I defending henry?

Well, what I mean is your seeming allergy to voting Henry.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by Telle

If you all jump on me now, PLEASE "vote RendeR" tomorrow after you see that I come up good. No, this isn't desperate effort to sway you vote now. Just DO NOT FORGET tomorrow. Please.

I agree with that.

[bhlloy]

4-3 Telle over Henry? I'm not moving, I think over the last 30 mins I'm feeling really good about a henry lynch

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Vote update??

4-3-3, Telle on the block.

[Telle]

Me 4, RendeR 3, henry 3

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well, what I mean is your seeming allergy to voting Henry.

? Because I wanted to vote RendeR? Honestly at this point I'm thinking they're both on the bad side.

[EagleFan]

As of post 300:

Telle 4 - henry296 (261), GoldenEagle (277), RendeR (283), britrock88 (286)
henry296 3 - Autumn (82), timmae (93), bhlloy (259)
RendeR 3 - Telle (145), Chief Rum (221), LoneStarGirl (267)