Werewolf CXXVII -- The Godfather, VILLAGERS WIN

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by tyketime

I agree with this. I'm also wanting to hear from our three no-voters:
Danny - already chimed in
Darth Vilus
Crimson Fox

all 3 are west coasters...

I also have to wonder if a wolf wouldn't miss the deadline on purpose considering it is a pretty defensable miss

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

Wait, deadline happened already?

What'd I tell you guys? :-)

[Darth Vilus]

sorry i effed up, i thought that the deadline was at 1:00pm my time. It didnt matter either way cuz i was in school at deadline. I'll do better from now on

[Darth Vilus]

im heading to work now, ill see you all in a few hours

[Autumn]

Well, losing a roled villager is bad, but I guess the hitman is the best to lose out of those. And the vote should give us something to work with. Chief seems a pretty obvious day 1 hit, so nothing to grok there really.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

all 3 are west coasters...

I also have to wonder if a wolf wouldn't miss the deadline on purpose considering it is a pretty defensable miss

Intentional or otherwise, I would not be surprised by this either, and I would include EF's singleton on Saldana in that group. With so many non-voters it is going to be difficult to sort through the D1 voting. I think I feel worse about people who failed to switch off Mau after his (admittedly late) plea at this point though.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Zinto

Vote Jeff061

I am going to say that there had to be 1 maybe 2 wolves on Mau and I think that is as good as any place to start today.

Probably just by the law of averages, but it's going to be tough to draw too many conclusions from it IMO. The key votes on mau were clear defensive votes by mckerney and tyke. The vote that put Mau well over the top was Saldana's but if I have to guess, I'd say the lack of movement and votes means that none of the three candidates we had up were wolves, and as such it's going to be really hard to figure anything out from the day 1 voting.

Of all the votes, I really don't like Zinto's vote. Fly by vote a couple of minutes before the deadline for the obvious lynch candidate sets off some alarms for me.

Also suspicious of the three that didn't check in on time, especially as all 3 are veteran players. But on the other hand - I don't know if you risk attracting that kind of attention if you are a wolf.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well, losing a roled villager is bad, but I guess the hitman is the best to lose out of those. And the vote should give us something to work with. Chief seems a pretty obvious day 1 hit, so nothing to grok there really.

Except that he counted as two villagers, that part stings the most.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by Zinto

Vote Jeff061

I am going to say that there had to be 1 maybe 2 wolves on Mau and I think that is as good as any place to start today.

Come on man, I wanted a little time to rest .

Oh for the record, not a wolf.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by JAG

I think I feel worse about people who failed to switch off Mau after his (admittedly late) plea at this point though.

I don't agree with this at all. One line "I wouldn't do this if I were you" does not provide a convincing argument not to vote for somebody. Who doesn't say that when about to be lynched? All I saw from Mau were a bunch of excuses about how he would love to give us reasons not to lynch him but didn't have the time.

[jeff061]

It's day one. I very rarely switch off someone day one. Who isn't going to plea?

[The Jackal]

Completely forgot the deadline was at 3, my bad

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Of all the votes, I really don't like Zinto's vote. Fly by vote a couple of minutes before the deadline for the obvious lynch candidate sets off some alarms for me.

I will say this Mau was definitely not the obvious lynch candidate. Done only two votes if one of the double votes where on Tyke then it would have been a tie and both would be lynched at this point which was the driving point of my vote. Also I could have not voted but I figured it was in the villages best interest to get a vote from me to establish the beginning of voting record even if it is the start of a bad voting record.

[CrimsonFox]

Damnit I didn't wake up until 12:30. Yes I'm on the west coast. I'm off pretty soon to take a required unemployment meeting so I was going to drop in a vote now but forgot about the deadline thing.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Come on man, I wanted a little time to rest .

Oh for the record, not a wolf.

Just trying to stir up some conversation since there was not any going on when I posted. I am more than happy to change my vote once some hopefuly more convincing arguments get made.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I don't agree with this at all. One line "I wouldn't do this if I were you" does not provide a convincing argument not to vote for somebody. Who doesn't say that when about to be lynched? All I saw from Mau were a bunch of excuses about how he would love to give us reasons not to lynch him but didn't have the time.

I agree that his post wasn't a strong reason to take a vote off of him, especially after he did the same sort of thing (though much earlier in the day) last game. Still, I'd be shocked if there weren't any wolves voting for mau, and wouldn't be surprised if there was more than one. I say that even though it would put suspicion on me. I know there's no real reason to trust me over anyone else who voted for mau, but I can honestly say that I'm a villager and the only reason I voted for him was as a defensive move to save myself.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by JAG

Intentional or otherwise, I would not be surprised by this either, and I would include EF's singleton on Saldana in that group. With so many non-voters it is going to be difficult to sort through the D1 voting. I think I feel worse about people who failed to switch off Mau after his (admittedly late) plea at this point though.

I feel I have to take a large part of the blame for lynching mau - I think my vote swung things his way. Autumn has already pointed that out. I remember now why I hate early votes that I can be around for - I'm pretty sure I vote better when I know I can't change things.

But as it happens his lacklustre "reveal" pretty much convinced me to stick on him more than anything, along with the worry of the uncertain vote mechanics killing two guys. Mau was one of the people who could have a cast-iron reveal - instead of saying "you don't want to lynch me" he could have said "I'm Michael Corleone", and hope the bodyguard is around to see and protect him tonight, or hope that the wolves think the bodyguard has seen it and will protect him.

If you want to look at the votes and look for connections I think there's a case, that Autumn laid out, potentially connecting me with McKerney - but there's also a possible connection between saldana and tyketime. Tyke was emerging as a viable candidate against mau but saldana pretty much drive the nail in the coffin, given the uncertainty of the votes. Tyke has two known villager votes on him as well. Which doesn't mean an awful lot. Then again if tyke is a villager (which the odds favour) then it actually reflects well on saldana as he didn't try to engineer some sort of tie to get two villagers offed in one lynch.

Dunno basically. The lack of votes really hurts the village.

[Chief Rum]

Well, shoot.

Good luck, villagers!

[Lathum]

OK, so all 4 missed voters happen to show up within an hour or so of the deadline. Interesting.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

OK, so all 4 missed voters happen to show up within an hour or so of the deadline. Interesting.

All four of us are wolves.

[Danny]

And the 5th wolf PMed us to get our butts over here.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I don't agree with this at all. One line "I wouldn't do this if I were you" does not provide a convincing argument not to vote for somebody. Who doesn't say that when about to be lynched? All I saw from Mau were a bunch of excuses about how he would love to give us reasons not to lynch him but didn't have the time.

Didn't Mau only send one single line about not having time to talk? Not "a bunch of excuses". This response seems a bit defensive. Hmm.

[CrimsonFox]

yeah, cause we just roll that way (bark too woof woof)

[Autumn]

Frankly I doubt we have much of anything go with in the voting records. I'm going to look it over tonight, but day 1 votes are usually a bunch of noise. It's only stringing a number of days together that gives you some data on each person. I'm going to give more weight to the content of posts at this point than votes.

I do hope everyone burns the deadline into their brain for tomorrow though.

[CrimsonFox]

So was Kay Adams the nightkill and not a "lover" mechanic? I don't see any lover mechanic in the rules for them. I guess I'm not surprised Chief was first. The only thing that might stick out was that Chief got the ball rolling on tyke to be the second candidate.

[Danny]

Pass said it was a night kill

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I guess I'm not surprised Chief was first. The only thing that might stick out was that Chief got the ball rolling on tyke to be the second candidate.

I don't understand how this is true. Chief didn't vote until near the end, Tyke was a candidate well before that.

[Autumn]

I'll go ahead and post what i have for the vote history, though I need to go back and get post numbers for more of these. The number in parenthes is how many votes were on that candidate after that person's vote.

EF votes Saldana 120 (1)
Narcizo votes Mckerney 122 (1)
J23 votes Chief Rum 132 (1)
JAG votes Mckerney 148 (2)
Lathum votes tyketime 153 (1)
Autumn votes tyketime 160 (2)
bhlloy votes mauboy1 161 (1)
jeff061 votes mauboy1 170 (2)
mauboy1 votes tyketime 176 (3)
mckerney votes tyketime 178 (4)
narcizo unvotes mckerney (1)
narcizo votes mauboy1 (3)
autumn unvotes tyketime 184 (3)
autumn votes mckerney 185 (2)
tyketime votes mauboy 193 (4)
mckerney unvotes tyketime 194 (2)
mckerney votes mauboy 194 (5)
chief votes tyketime (3)
J23 unvotes chief rum (0)
J23 votes tyketime (4)
saldana votes mauboy (6)
martind votes mckerney (3)
zinto votes mauboy (7)

[Autumn]

It is interesting to me that no one moved off of Mauboy or even discussed it. Martin, Mckerney and Zinto all posted after Mauboy's hint. Zinto even voted him. Mckerney pointed out the "reveal" and didn't move. I would have expected some reaction to Mauboy's post.

[CrimsonFox]

Well after last game, Autumn, I wouldn't expect anyone to buy a "mauboy reveal" and that's just what happened.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I don't understand how this is true. Chief didn't vote until near the end, Tyke was a candidate well before that.

I was only pointing that out as it might connect Chief's death to tyke because tyke was killing off someone that fingered him. But I don't totally buy this totally either since Chief is frequently a "first kill" by people that know him.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Didn't Mau only send one single line about not having time to talk? Not "a bunch of excuses". This response seems a bit defensive. Hmm.

That's not true. He made a couple of posts earlier in the day about his boss being around once the first vote(s) were on him. Overall I saw absolutely no reason to move off him, in fact quite the opposite based on his responses. Had he revealed as Michael, I would have moved off him in an instant.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Autumn

It is interesting to me that no one moved off of Mauboy or even discussed it. Martin, Mckerney and Zinto all posted after Mauboy's hint. Zinto even voted him. Mckerney pointed out the "reveal" and didn't move. I would have expected some reaction to Mauboy's post.

1. I wasn't inclined to change from mauboy because of a vague reveal after last game.
2. He posted it with 8 minutes to the deadline, even if I was likely to change it didn't seem worth the risk. It's a deadline that can be difficult for people to make, a tie lynches multiple people, and there are too many unknowns in the voting. If I moved my vote to tyketime it would've made it 6-5, making a tie possible from a double vote on tyke. Even if someone else moved late too it would have been 6-5 the other way, still leaving the possibility of a double vote causing a tie. Switching with that little time left had too much risk of lynching two villagers.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by mckerney

1. I wasn't inclined to change from mauboy because of a vague reveal after last game.
2. He posted it with 8 minutes to the deadline, even if I was likely to change it didn't seem worth the risk. It's a deadline that can be difficult for people to make, a tie lynches multiple people, and there are too many unknowns in the voting. If I moved my vote to tyketime it would've made it 6-5, making a tie possible from a double vote on tyke. Even if someone else moved late too it would have been 6-5 the other way, still leaving the possibility of a double vote causing a tie. Switching with that little time left had too much risk of lynching two villagers.

Just double checked and I had Zinto's late vote counted as being before mauboy's "reveal." A switch by me would've made it 5-5.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by mckerney

1. I wasn't inclined to change from mauboy because of a vague reveal after last game.
2. He posted it with 8 minutes to the deadline, even if I was likely to change it didn't seem worth the risk. It's a deadline that can be difficult for people to make, a tie lynches multiple people, and there are too many unknowns in the voting. If I moved my vote to tyketime it would've made it 6-5, making a tie possible from a double vote on tyke. Even if someone else moved late too it would have been 6-5 the other way, still leaving the possibility of a double vote causing a tie. Switching with that little time left had too much risk of lynching two villagers.

Thanks, McK, that's the kind of response I was looking for.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

That's not true. He made a couple of posts earlier in the day about his boss being around once the first vote(s) were on him. Overall I saw absolutely no reason to move off him, in fact quite the opposite based on his responses. Had he revealed as Michael, I would have moved off him in an instant.

Ah, I see. I didn't classify those posts in the same category since he wasn't suggesting any reveal, but I see what you mean then.

[EagleFan]

Looks like a bad start but it could have worse. Going to have to do most of my posting in the evening as my day time posting will be few and far between and mostly on phone access.

Missed the mau reveal but as many who were in last game have said, that wouldn't mean much this game. Though what I would have found very funny is if Pass had given mau a roll of Paparazzi... But maybe that's just my warped sense of humor.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Danny

All four of us are wolves.

I so want to vote for you after this post just to see if a wolf would have the balls to make a post like this.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Frankly I doubt we have much of anything go with in the voting records. I'm going to look it over tonight, but day 1 votes are usually a bunch of noise. It's only stringing a number of days together that gives you some data on each person. I'm going to give more weight to the content of posts at this point than votes.

I do hope everyone burns the deadline into their brain for tomorrow though.

If we agree that Day 1 votes won't provide much information at this point, then I'm going to look at the four no-voters:

Danny
Darth Vilus
Crimson Fox
The Jackal

All four have made an appearance after the deadline, but none with any substantive comments. I want to hear from them. At least a bit more participation. So I'm going to cast an early vote. I guess the post from Crimson where he asks about the second kill (nightkill vs lover) and the false point about Chief leading the charge against me provides us the most fodder of the four. So...

VOTE CRIMSON FOX

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by tyketime

If we agree that Day 1 votes won't provide much information at this point, then I'm going to look at the four no-voters:

Danny
Darth Vilus
Crimson Fox
The Jackal

All four have made an appearance after the deadline, but none with any substantive comments. I want to hear from them. At least a bit more participation. So I'm going to cast an early vote. I guess the post from Crimson where he asks about the second kill (nightkill vs lover) and the false point about Chief leading the charge against me provides us the most fodder of the four. So...

VOTE CRIMSON FOX

This post makes no sense. Day one doesn't provide information? Sure it does. It always does.

Looking at the nonvoters when this is the first time we've had this early of a deadline? That's not definitive proof of anything.

Not have substantive participation? Bull. I've already participated. Moreso than SOME people who DID vote. Why not look at them too. Saying we are MORE guilty because we missed an early vote is hogwash.

You want to hear from me then you complain about everything I say. That makes no sense too. I asked about the nightkill vs lover because I didn't know. Why is THAT guilt? I pointed out the chief thing as a possible reason why CHief may have been killed. You had two votes on you and then Chief provided a third which then led to more. I hadn't read any of the posts before that this morning, just trying to participate. And if you had read my post, it says that even though I said that I also pointed out I didn't totally believe there was a link between you and Chief.

Too many contradictions in your post.

VOTE Tyketime

[Darth Vilus]

oi, my head hurts. I'm going to have to try to make heads or tails of the voting today

[EagleFan]

With our first mid-afternoon deadline in a while I would tend to agree in giving those that missed it a little more leeway than normal.

Also, day one votes can provide information; just not always immediately as it usually takes a couple days for those votes to become evident.

[tyketime]

So there are no posts for almost three hours. I merely point out that there are two thoughts running at this point - The Day 1 votes and the Non-Voters. Within 15 minutes, we hear from two of them.

I clearly stated that I wanted to have you four participate. Notice that I don't accuse anyone of being more guilty. All I said was that out of the four, Crimson was the one that posted something more than "I'm Late". So I thought I would hang my hat on that post to at least get the conversation started. Looks like I've succeeded in that regards. I might have even struck a nerve...

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Also, day one votes can provide information; just not always immediately as it usually takes a couple days for those votes to become evident.

Which was clearly my point since I referenced Autumn's post.

[EagleFan]

One vote stood out to me the most with limited scanning of the votes and that was saldana's. I just thought it was odd that he would include reasons from a past game in his vote. Not that people don't do that on day one but the fact that he did that with a close to the deadline vote. Just seemed like someone trying to provide an excuse for his vote in case the results weren't good, which as it turns out they weren't.

I have to sign out and do some work, my boss just called and needs me to prepare something for a client presentation tomorrow (nothing like last minute notice).

Since I can't vote for him...

vote saldana

[Darth Vilus]

Well I'm going to put my vote in now in case i'm not around at deadline tomorrow.

Vote Tyketime

I don't really like the way he jumped on the people who missed deadline, seems like a bit of a cop out to me. Seems an easy way to take the attention off him and put it on someone else.

[J23]

Well, the 4 people that showed up late did so pretty darn close to the deadline. I don't think it's unreasonable to think something might be amiss.

Danny - 3:04 EST
MartinD - 3:13 EST
DV - 3:45 EST
CF - 4:12 EST

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by J23

Well, the 4 people that showed up late did so pretty darn close to the deadline. I don't think it's unreasonable to think something might be amiss.

Danny - 3:04 EST
MartinD - 3:13 EST
DV - 3:45 EST
CF - 4:12 EST

I think that you may have included me on that list by mistake - I voted 10 minutes before deadline. (Admittedly, I thought that deadline was an hour later, but I was definitely around before deadline.)

The person that you're missing is The Jackal, who posted at 4.09 EST.

[Narcizo]

Well, that's not much discussion then. I was kind of hoping for a bit more to go on. I've been thinking about the vote last night and I think we probably played it wrong. Everyone was worried about tying the vote and that basically meant that we got a run away in the end that we could all, when alls said and done, live with (at the time). I think we need to stop worrying about where the double votes are going to land and whether we're going to take out two villagers and just vote how we would in a normal game. I think there are actually only really two people with double votes that a) could be detrimental to villagers and b) are likely to come into play much. That would be Sonny Corleone (double vote) and Fredo Corleone (double vote on villager).

Salvatore Tessio vote counts double on a wolf (so we don't have to worry about where he votes) and then, I think, three people with double votes on one specific person (and the odds of that happening are pretty slim).

I think that if there's a wolf near the vote then the wolfies are going to be just as nervous about potential ties as we are, or more so.

[Narcizo]

Does anyone think it might be more than co-incidence that the two people killed last night were probably in PM contact with each other and one of them might have been in PM contact with someone else? I'm rather surprised that Chief didn't offer more of a defence than he did of mauboy under the circumstances. Anyway, if it turned out that Apollina is a wolf then we would have to look at the votes on mauboy in a different light, not just as a possible save of tyke or mckerney but as motivated by knowledge of mau's role. Which doesn't look good for me but there you go. It seems pretty far-fetched but it might be worth considering once we get more information.

[Narcizo]

I think Saldana's actions yesterday were questionable. His reasoning for voting mauboy is acceptable early in the day but doesn't really fly that soon before the deadline when it's likely to condemn the person. It's either kinda petty or it's hiding the real reason for voting mau. He then added the reasoning that he wanted to avoid a tied vote but that really came off as an afterthought. Furthermore lynching saldana gives us information. If Saldana turns out to be a wolf then it looks like there was a definite move to bury mau and that is useful information.

I can understand people wanting to go after the no-voters and agree that could easily be a wolf in there but I like to extend trust to people and believe that if they say they genuinely missed the deadline then that's what happened and it's not solely a wolfie ploy to avoid having to commit to a vote. Obviously I'd like to see those people contribute more to make up for yesterday but I don't see the need to drop a vote on one of them to get them to do so.

Vote Saldana