11-20-2008, 08:42 AM | #251 | |
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I would probably put Alan and path ahead of either you or me actually, given how knowing either of their allegiances would probably enlighten us quite a bit on the meanings of the first two votes.
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11-20-2008, 09:24 AM | #252 |
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I don't see any shape or form that Path isn't the best vote today. I won't even go back over all of the reasons I've been saying since day 1 because of lack of time. Killing Path also tells you the most about the most people left.
It tells you about me, it tells you about Chief Rum who put a late vote on Path on the day that Path, Hannibal and Render ganged up on me, and it tells you about Render who has been protecting Hannibal and Path since day 1. Killing no one else in this game says anything about any more than 1 or 2 people. Vote Path |
11-20-2008, 11:08 AM | #253 | |
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Boy, you and I have seen this game from two totally different standpoints. VOTE ALAN T My opinion hasn't changed either.
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11-20-2008, 02:07 PM | #254 |
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OK, I'm adding one more assumption to my list. Chief/Packer would be unlikely to vote for each other early on D1 as wolves. The first worry would be the 8% chance that a single vote would give them, and the second worry would be that they would potentially attract more votes.
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11-20-2008, 02:08 PM | #255 |
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Once I embrace that assumption, it probably makes sense to really go back at the Alan/Path disagreement and pick a side in it. I'll work on doing so over the next couple of hours.
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11-20-2008, 02:18 PM | #256 |
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I don't have any ill feelings toward CR (as my day 1 vote of him was retaliation) and my gut is telling me to trust Hoops right. So it's between Alan and Path. And Alan is the one I have agreed with thus far. So...
VOTE PATH
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11-20-2008, 02:26 PM | #257 |
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Lets keep it even
VOTE ALAN T There hasn't been a cunning wolf in this rule set Alan, bringing that out now would be a real stretch especially by not informing us of one to begin with. So writing off that red herring leaves me wondering why, still, you were goingso overboard all this time. Your synopses of your own comments sounds great in bullet form, but when you go back and read them in real time they just come off as specious. You may have facts correct, you were right about hannibal, go you. but you're still pinging my wolf-dar far more than anyone else. If its going to be a two man run-off then at least you should be happy that the other man is Path? Random.org will answer a lot of questoins tonight it would seem. I wish we'd gotten one more scan in, losing danny sucks. |
11-20-2008, 02:28 PM | #258 |
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If CR and Hoops split their votes it'll be 50-50 tonight. I doubt it could be made better than that. Can we vote nightfall and find out early?
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11-20-2008, 02:32 PM | #259 |
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I'm in no hurry to vote nightfall if we are going to have participation today. There is a chance that this could be our final vote if we are wrong (4 starting wolves) so I would like to give people a chance to make fully-considered votes. Someone might actually have a point that changes a mind or two down the stretch.
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11-20-2008, 02:39 PM | #260 | |
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Valid point. Nightfall inquiry withdrawn. |
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11-20-2008, 02:47 PM | #261 |
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I'm not going to argue about a 50/50 shot. Obviously the Alan/myself question needs to be answered at some point. I suppose it's possible that we're both villagers and being stubborn (wouldn't be that out of character for either of us), but the leaps in logic he's made this game just don't add up for me.
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11-20-2008, 02:48 PM | #262 |
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Dola, if by off chance we are both villagers, the wolves are laughing their asses off right now.
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11-20-2008, 02:52 PM | #263 | ||
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Here are the votes from D1/D2 (minus late vote from Jackal, a villager, on D1). Alan has votes from one wolf, one villager, and Path. If you buy into the idea that Path was a wolf then his vote along with Hannibal's here together against Alan makes a lot of sense. But these were early votes - I do not 100% accept that there was wolf coordination at work here to bury Alan. Chief is not a wolf along with Path - no way that he buries him at the end like that if they are aligned. But he could be one with Alan, given the votes to help tie up the score. Still, why vote with Alan on Path instead of throwing a vote on Jackal in this case, allowing the wolves to spread their votes? If you accept that I'm a villager (big leap, I know) then you see that the wolves definitely got involved in the Path/Alan vote. The only votes not on these guys are me, Danny, and Jackal. Two of the three are proven villagers. Oh, and Packer did not vote on this day. If you want to work with the assumption that Alan and Chief are wolves together, then why would Hannibal have left his vote on Alan for the duration, rather than finding a place to change it? There was a lot more risk in leaving Alan in a tie rather than making it 4-2. Nope, this stream of consciousness that you are reading has me convinced that Alan is good. It doesn't have me 100% convinced that Alan is bad, but the people I would now choose between today are Path and PackerFanatic. |
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11-20-2008, 02:53 PM | #264 |
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And Packer is voting for Path. Sigh.
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11-20-2008, 02:59 PM | #265 |
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Not wolves: RendeR and me
Not wolves together: - Path and Chief Rum (no chance based on D2 vote endangering Path) - PackerFanatic and Chief Rum (unlikely, but most possible of options in this list. Predicated on D1 vote for each other) - Path and Alan (no way does Alan bicker with two other wolves in thread like this) - PackerFanatic and Path (today's vote) - Chief Rum and Alan (D2 vote, too much risk to Alan with Hannibal vote staying where it was) That leaves me with one combination: Packer Fanatic/Alan |
11-20-2008, 03:01 PM | #266 |
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D2 - if this is the wolf combo, then Alan was really left hung out to dry by the other wolves. Hannibal leaves a vote on him and PackerFanatic doesn't vote.
Man, none of these two wolf combinations make sense to me. |
11-20-2008, 03:03 PM | #267 |
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I just checked to see if I was missing a player. I'm seriously stumped right now. If we had gotten that 60% roll yesterday I think we would have won the game. Now it is damn hard
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11-20-2008, 03:08 PM | #268 |
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At this point I think the most likely scenario is that PackerFanatic and Chief Rum are wolves together.
If there is a cunning wolf in RendeR, then we are losing this game in my mind. I would encourage those voting for Path to move away from that option. I feel pretty good about him not being a wolf in any of the three scenarios above. I really do not think that Alan is a wolf either. I would much rather see the 50/50 split on Chief/Packer and see what that gets for us, but would prefer a runaway on either of these guys compared to a 50/50 split on Alan/Path. |
11-20-2008, 03:08 PM | #269 |
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VOTE CHIEF RUM
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11-20-2008, 03:37 PM | #270 | |
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Sorry, I'm not moving my vote off of Path. I don't even care if it means my death as I would hope my death would then lead people to finally listen to me... or at least go back and re-read the exchanges where Hannibal and Path were involved. The way that played out remind me nearly 90% of how the heroes game Jeheinz ran worked out.. Where seemingly innocent comments led to a vote that then had small subtle reasons to try to justify it, then instead of agreeing on how poor of a move it was, they chose to argue with me for days on it. I'll be right or wrong, but I have a definite feeling on Path and am not moving my vote. |
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11-20-2008, 03:47 PM | #271 |
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Alan, do you think that I'm a wolf protecting Path?
If not, then who do you think is the other wolf with him? RendeR as the cunning? Or is there some other scenario that you think makes sense? I've got three different options I'm willing to consider: Path/Alan - obviously you do not think this Path/Chief - Chief put him in harms way on D2, no way are they wolves together Path/PackerFanatic - potentially could be the case, if PF is going to flip his vote later today None of those really add up for me for Path being a wolf. I'm certain that there are at least 3 wolves in a 12 person game, since there were 3 in a 9 person game using same ruleset. Let's talk this one out together, if you are a villager and you think that I'm a villager. |
11-20-2008, 04:16 PM | #272 | |
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Based on the actual data you present, if Render is not a wolf, then you would likely be next on my list after Path. You haven't been too correct on your votes thus far this game, and in a game where we saw lynches like Barkeep and Jackal's only take one vote to even make them possible I think that is something very important to remember. I still however really feel strongly based on how hard Render went out of his way on day 1 to argue a ridiculous case and how hard he seemed to -want- to draw attention to himself on a day that he wasn't likely going to get a vote that he wanted to be scanned. Can you give me another reason why someone would go overboard in backing the case of a wolf on day 1 with a ridiculous argument like he did? If Path is not a wolf, then obviously that means I am wrong about Render too since it is based upon Render supporting Hannibal and Path together. I don't think that will be the case here however. I think Path will turn up as a wolf, and that speaks even worse of Render in my mind who at that point would have gone waaaay out of his way to argue for two different wolves on a day 1?? |
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11-20-2008, 04:25 PM | #273 |
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Alan, I'm going to submit a question to the moderator about the presence of a cunning wolf in the game. I would ask you to do the same to make sure that you feel that you can trust my answer.
If there is not a cunning wolf per the moderator, can we drop the suspicion of the cleared person from the analysis? I would assume the answer is yes. Your thoughts on Path seem to be strongly predicated on the "axis of evil" that you see with RendeR/Hannibal/Path, and I think that falls apart if it is confirmed that there is no cunning wolf. I'll give you huge kudos if you end up being right on this one, but from a percentage chance I would bet against it. |
11-20-2008, 04:27 PM | #274 |
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11-20-2008, 04:32 PM | #275 |
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Just for review, since there has been alot of attempts by Path, Hannibal and Render to spin this into an "Alan is just talking in circles" thing. Why on day 1 when none of us supposedly know anything about anyone else, would Render willingly side with Path (an unknown) and Hannibal (a wolf) against the Duke? And after Path's attempt to push votes onto the Duke, and Hannibal's attempts to rationalize that vote in a game where even 1 vote is enough to lynch anyone when random.org is not on your side, Render sided with them.
After Path's original plan gained no traction and alot of votes from people other than the Path/Hannibal/Render trio, they started focusing their energy on attacking me saying how I was talking in circles, or saying BS despite the fact that I obviously was belivable enough for many others to side with me against them on day 1. Any attempt I had to spell out all of my points for discussion with Render was ignored for the most part because they didn't have any points that I was wrong on. So their only hope was to confuse the issue, and get Render cleared in a scan. Then the plan would be to get me lynched at that time in which Render would go on with his nonsense and probably blame me for it (which would have been equally rediculous). Since everyone else has been mostly ambivolent about even bothering to look at what these three have tried to pull so far, with my death that probably would lose the heat on Path as well and an easy coasting to victory. Bottom line is, I was right about Hannibal, and no one can deny that. Don't I at least deserve the opportunity to see if I am right or wrong about Path? I haven't been wrong yet this game. |
11-20-2008, 04:36 PM | #276 | |
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I just sent an email to Pass asking the same question then just to play this out some for you. I don't know if I'll be around when he responds, but if so I'll post what response I get. Even if there is no cunning wolf, I don't think that makes Path not a wolf, since Render's guilt in my mind depended on Path being a wolf and not the reverse. It could be just as likely you are a wolf with Path, and hopes that I would back off on Path if I started believing that there was no cunning wolf. Either way, I still have yet to see a reason to believe that Path is not a wolf and am pretty suprised that no one else sees it, especially after Hannibal was found to be a wolf. |
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11-20-2008, 04:38 PM | #277 |
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Ok, well Passacaglia responded with a pretty strong swear word regarding what he thinks about the cunning wolf role. So my interpretation of his email to me is that it is likely Render is not a cunning wolf.
In this case, I don't really want to comment on what I think of Render's play in this game because I don't want to come across the wrong way.. but man has he been off. RIght now I am going to assume the two wolves left are Path/Hoops then, and Hoops desire to push the voting away from Path won't work in my mind at all. |
11-20-2008, 04:38 PM | #278 |
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I've gotten my response from Pass on this already. No cunning wolf. I've also got permission to quote him directly on it, just to make sure that there are no interpretation issues.
"I hate that cunning wolf shit, and wouldn't have one without good reason, and certainly wouldn't have one without putting in the rules." |
11-20-2008, 04:40 PM | #279 |
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At least Path/Hoops is a fair assessment - because none of the other ones make any sense to me. I haven't spent much time so far building arguments on why I would not be a wolf with Path because ... well, because I'm not a wolf and this scenario had not yet been raised.
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11-20-2008, 04:41 PM | #280 | |
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Well, maybe your best argument would be to stop trying to convince everyone to not vote Path today like you have been doing so. And then just let the vote work itself out. If Path ends up bad, I'll likely vote you tomorrow. If he ends up good, then you look alot better than you do right now. |
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11-20-2008, 04:43 PM | #281 |
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Alan, FWIW the reason I'm going through this exercise with you is that I believe there are two wolves left (you do too, right?) and that if we miss today we lose the game.
So that is why I'm not swayed by the argument of "let me see if the grand unification theory holds up" ... because we cannot afford a miss. I think it makes more sense to review what pairs of people make any kind of sense together as wolves, based on their actions in the thread up to this point. However, as you should be able to see from my posts above I do not think any pair of wolves have acted optimally up to this point. But the Day 2 vote makes a lot more sense for Chief Rum and Packer Fanatic as wolves if all of the candidates were in fact villagers. At that point, who cares where they went with their votes? Packer Fanatic could afford to miss a vote and Chief could put his vote on any of the three. |
11-20-2008, 04:44 PM | #282 |
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11-20-2008, 04:49 PM | #283 | |
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The problem with your mode of "if we lose today's vote we lose the game, so you should go my way of voting" is that it completely tries to steer us to vote in a way that is most favorable to you. I at least have been saying for days now that if I get lynched then so be it, at least it would tell us something. What do we learn if we lynch Chief or Packer and they turn up good? Who does that point us to, what is our next step then? I think there is a pretty decent path drawn out with either Path or my death at least. It is ashame that random.org stinks so bad that it has pushed this meaningful vote ahead several days. This should have given us information on day 2, not day 4.. |
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11-20-2008, 04:53 PM | #284 |
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Alan, you do not have to follow my line of voting to accept that "bad vote today = game over". Those two ideas are not necessarily tied to each other.
Now, I do think that you are on a bad candidate based on my interpretation of the votes over the first two days. And you are here and willing to engage in a discussion, so that is why I'm gearing my posts towards you and not the others. Hopefully they will catch up later and provide their feedback on what has been posted so far. And consider their votes carefully. Surely you can get behind the idea of a Path/Chief or a Path/Packer showdown more than you can a Path/Alan showdown???? |
11-20-2008, 04:54 PM | #285 |
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Packer, are you willing to re-examine your vote choice based on the comments over the last couple of hours?
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11-20-2008, 04:54 PM | #286 |
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If not, why not? If so, what was compelling enough to move your vote?
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11-20-2008, 04:57 PM | #287 | |
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I can get behind a Path/anyone show down since I feel pretty strongly about not moving my vote. I wish I had more time to go at this from a more analytical point of view to dig into posts like I normally do.. unfortunately with my travel I have to rely more on my gut than I have been of late. That doesn't mean my gut is wrong though, I think the points I made the past 4 days are all strong, valid points that have yet to be investigated out beyond being correct about Hannibal and being wrong about Render thus far. |
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11-20-2008, 05:10 PM | #288 |
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Alan, another idea on me not being a wolf - if I was I would have been happy to let you twist in the wind along with Path, take my chances on a 50/50 showdown at worst or hopefully get a 66/33 showdown if the last voter followed me (it was 2-2, right?). I wouldn't argue for more discussion and more analysis if I had 1+ villagers already on you.
But I'm not a wolf, and I want us to make a good decision today. So I have spent some time on the data. I may be drawing some bad conclusions; we'll see soon enough. But that is why I'm hoping for more of an exchange of ideas, rather than a line of "I'm sticking to my guns". |
11-20-2008, 05:11 PM | #289 |
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Once again, here is the premise of my argument:
1.) There must be at least three wolves in the game since there were 3 in a 9 person game and we have 12 in this game. 2.) One of the wolves (Hannibal) is dead, leaving 2+ wolves 3.) RendeR, scanned by the seer, is a known good in a game without a cunning wolf If you (generic "you" reading this) are a villager then that leaves four untrusted. I'm putting in my matrix, but anyone who is a villager should just substitute me out for themselves when looking at the results to make sure they fully consider me (Hoopsguy). Chief Rum\Path Chief Rum\Alan Cheif Rum\Packer Fanatic Path\Alan Path\Packer Fanatic Alan\PackerFanatic One of these six combos must be a pair of wolves. Which ones can you rationalize? Which ones do not make sense? |
11-20-2008, 05:21 PM | #290 | |
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Ok, then on my side I have the following combinations: Hoopsguy\Chief Rum - possible Hoopsguy\Path - maybe - the more I look at this though, Hoops did vote for path day 1 when it seemed like path was a goner, but if we're giving Chief a pass on being a teammate with Path for his vote, we should give a half-pass to hoops for something almost similar. Hoopsguy\Packerfanatic - Possible Chief Rum\Path - seems unlikely - Chief jumped onto the Path vote, adding additional chance that Path could be bad. Chief Rum\Packer fanatic - seems unlikely - I don't think a wolf is going to risk too many chances at getting one voted out on a pure random game like this. Them voting each other day 1 gave 2 possible chances and doesn't make sense to try to buy trust in such a way in a game like this. path\packerfanatic - possible So if I want to go from a probability standpoint, it seems like my best options would be to vote either Hoopsguy or Packerfanatic today.. which are also the two people I have the least data for. I'm having a tough time believing that Path isn't a wolf though based on that day 1. So what is the reason it isn't Path/Packerfanatic? because Packer missed a vote on one day when Path and Hannibal both were voting me? I don't know how strong that reasoning is in my mind right now. |
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11-20-2008, 05:22 PM | #291 |
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And I know you're enjoying the conversation Hoops. unfortunately I am only here another 20 minutes or so today before I have to catch a ride out until probably close to.. uhh well I don't know what time it is Eastern time right now anyways.. I'll be gone like 5ish hours though.
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11-20-2008, 05:26 PM | #292 |
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Alan, I would hope you have more info on me than just about anyone else in the game, based on posts and content.
I'm fine with swinging it to Packer instead of Chief - one is as good as the other to me, since I think those are the two wolves. I think you have to discount, to some extent, the likelihood of me being teammates with either Chief or Packer, based on how I'm pushing them as candidates today. |
11-20-2008, 05:30 PM | #293 |
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FWIW, Packer was in the thread and left without commenting. Not a capital offense, but hardly giving me a warm and fuzzy feeling.
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11-20-2008, 05:34 PM | #294 |
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I am having a very difficult time getting past the thought of you trying to play me here. Moving my vote to packerfanatic seems to have among the best odds from where I sit.. but you seem to be really strong in encouraging that as well.
I'm going to have to debate that internally here before I go. I think part of my destructive werewolf personality is when I am wrong in a game, I usually am way off... and go down in flames.. Part of Hannibal being bad just can't help me get past Path being bad. Because if Path is good, then that means I would have just gotten lucky about Hannibal and been right on him being a wolf for absolutely no good reason at all. |
11-20-2008, 05:47 PM | #295 |
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I think I'm going to leave my vote where it is for today, and I won't be back in time to change it after this either. Sticking with my vote here stays true with the reasoning that has seemed sound to me the entire game. It doesn't make much sense to me to move my vote here. Perhaps it is a bit of a trust thing with not thinking I should believe Hoopsguy in later game scenerios. Either way, hopefully I am right here, otherwise I'm sure that I'll hear it from the peanut gallery like every other time I've been wrong. Good luck!
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11-20-2008, 06:04 PM | #296 |
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UNVOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE PACKER FANATIC |
11-20-2008, 06:07 PM | #297 |
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I may find myself flipping between these two again before the night is over. But if no one is willing to back either PF or CR then I'll make my vote count between Path/Alan and hope we are not doing a villager/villager tango.
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11-20-2008, 06:37 PM | #298 |
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So where does that leave our vote count currently??
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11-20-2008, 06:40 PM | #299 |
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Path - Alan (252), Packer (256)
Alan - Path (253), Render (257) Packer - Hoops (296) |
11-20-2008, 06:44 PM | #300 |
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Alan: My only real beef with you all game long is that the way you represented your arguments during conversation tended to be very chaotic and the leaps of logic you made really had no basis in fact. You based every single thing on the path/hannibal connectoin that only you actually felt was there. If it turns out that you were right, then kudos to you for leaping upon a gut reaction and getting very very lucky. if path turns up good then as you say, you got nothin and the hannibal tag was a lucky shot by you. Hence the viewpoint that you were off your crock most of the game in my opinion.
Lots of ifs. You say i defended both path and hannibal, and that is not the case. I never defended path as far as I can recall and I certainly didn't defend hannibal at all, what I did was vall you out for being totally wrong in one post. You still disagree but facts are facts. The things hannibal stated were indeed correct. If your post hadn't been so totally out of line for what I normally see from you I doubt I'd have even mentioned it, but then you really went all out to come after me which simply told me that you were a wolf fighting the bear trap that snapped your ankle. After reading all of hoops and your commentary today I'm tending to think you're not actually a wolf and simply played a rough game and got extremely lucky, nothing wrong with that. however I've always got my reasons to distrust hoops. The question is is he driving the logic train in earnest, or is he driving it like a mad wolf knowing he's got us all by the short curly's? UNVOTE ALAN T VOTE PACKER FANATIC |
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