WW Small Game IX- The Cold War !! game over CIA win

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Not trying to get myself lynched or anything, but why would you make that assumption? If yesterday was villager vs villager, a wolf doesnt care who dies. So me saving you or me saving Ntndeacon, it really doesn't matter to a wolf. I would argue that a wolf is less likely to stick his neck out on day 1 like that, but we've seen wolfs do that before too. (I think I even did it before once long ago).

I'm a good guy, but I don't think I've done much one way or another that can seal the deal for people though I guess.

Yeah, I do see your point, but I also think that a wolf wouldn't want anything to do with breaking that tie. We've turned out to be a fairly level-headed crowd, but we've both seen bandwagons build up for less than that. A wolf I think wouldn't want to risk that.

[path12]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Path, if you assume I'm good I think you have to assume Alan is good as well.

I was actually referring more to the likelyhood of you and Alan being night targets as experienced players rather than speculating on who's good or not.

I agree with Alan that Ardent's comment about you last night either gives you a modicum of trust or means that both of you are bad (which would be a strange play this early, so I lean toward the trust side).

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by beargrowlz

I think you're taunting us! 15 yards, unsportsmanlike conduct.

would a wolf start taunting 2 days into the game?

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I agree, if anything, it means he was WRONG on those suspicions (assuming the spies even knew what he meant).

That's just illogical. He was probably killed because the wolves thought (correctly as it turned out, unbelievable as it may seem) that he revealed he was a seer. I don't see how what he might have been referring to or not is going to influence their judgement. They believed DT wasn't bluffing and were right and targeted the seer. What DT might be referring to is neither here nor there.

[beargrowlz]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

would a wolf start taunting 2 days into the game?

The perfect cover!

Actually though, I was thinking more likely that you were the mercenary and that a wolf negotiator found you last night and hired you to take suspicion off them.

I don't get the hit and run vote on Saldana either.

That being said, I'm going to cast an early vote today and go with my gut. Like he said, having pretty much equal suspicions about he, Molly and ITC, and path having voted for him yesterday, I probably should have voted narc yesterday.

So that's what I'll do today.

vote narcizo

[beargrowlz]

Heh, that's funny. I just noticed your post count doesn't increase when you post here.

[Narcizo]

I think we need to start thinking in terms of getting as much information as possible. Lynching someone like ITC (or me for that matter) is going to reveal nothing more than whether we are good or bad. While it's all well and good if we hit a bad guy we have to accept that, on day 2 apparently without much information, the chances are we're not going to. Without a seer we need to start looking to get more information from lynches. Unfortunate but true.

So how do we get information? By targeting people that already seem to be tied to other people. Clear them and we're partially clearing other people. Find out they're bad and we get a line of inquiry to lead us to other people.

[MollyMurphy]

Originally Posted by beargrowlz

Sorry Molly, posted my last post before seeing your latest. Thanks for the answer.

No problem. I see where you were coming from. I am in and out today. I am technically in meetings all day but I am sneaking peaks into the thread during breaks and when the meeting gets boring.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So how do we get information? By targeting people that already seem to be tied to other people. Clear them and we're partially clearing other people. Find out they're bad and we get a line of inquiry to lead us to other people.

So, you'll be wanting to lynch me I guess.

[Narcizo]

Of course it would be handy if we can also find someone acting suspiciously to target as well as looking for information.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

So, you'll be wanting to lynch me I guess.

Can you fault the logic?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Can you fault the logic?

Not really, it would do the village more good than lynching some random guy who turned out to be good.

[MollyMurphy]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

That's just illogical. He was probably killed because the wolves thought (correctly as it turned out, unbelievable as it may seem) that he revealed he was a seer. I don't see how what he might have been referring to or not is going to influence their judgement. They believed DT wasn't bluffing and were right and targeted the seer. What DT might be referring to is neither here nor there.

They either did believe him or they got lucky. The comment from DT doesn't seem like a lot to go on......

[Poli]

vote ImTheCrew
I'm with you Cronin.

[Poli]

The only thing that has me concerned about the phone tap: If cronin is KGB but didn't send in the night action...then he appears as if he's CIA. Additionally, it would make me look bad as well.

[ImTheCrew]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Not really, it would do the village more good than lynching some random guy who turned out to be good.

happens to me every game

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

The only thing that has me concerned about the phone tap: If cronin is KGB but didn't send in the night action...then he appears as if he's CIA. Additionally, it would make me look bad as well.

I included that in my scenerio I listed before. Even -if- this is true, at least one of the KGB had to have sent in the order. So how many KGB are there in a game this size? 3 considering the other items and roles in play? So he has 1/3 less of a chance of being bad than any other non-cleared person here.

Its why I said he isn't cleared in my mind, but I'm willing to let him slide a little bit based on that alone. On day 2, you don't really have cleared vs uncleared. You instead have percentages of possible wolf or not. Right now St.cronin is more likely to be good than everyone else.. but it doesn't mean he is cleared by any means.

[Alan T]

Dola , on the other hand it also means its likely if he is good and dies he isn't an important role. But that is taking risk management into consideration

[Chief Rum]

There are a lot of pet theories out there, but one play from yesterday still looks very suspicious to me. Beargrowlz is already barking up the right tree on it, too--bulletsponge.

Look, I understand the draw of FM and how work gets in the way of things, but bulletsponge is too experienced to drop a vote-and-run on Day One without explanation. I am surprised he hasn't drawn more interest. Until more information comes out, he is at the top of my list because of the no explanation Day One vote and because he seems to be trying to be UTR.

[MollyMurphy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

There are a lot of pet theories out there, but one play from yesterday still looks very suspicious to me. Beargrowlz is already barking up the right tree on it, too--bulletsponge.

Look, I understand the draw of FM and how work gets in the way of things, but bulletsponge is too experienced to drop a vote-and-run on Day One without explanation. I am surprised he hasn't drawn more interest. Until more information comes out, he is at the top of my list because of the no explanation Day One vote and because he seems to be trying to be UTR.

I was not aware that he was an experienced player (still learning who has been playing for a while). I agree that it is very suspicious given that he has experience in this game. He has also not defended this choice.

[st.cronin]

Somebody took a guess that he was the mercenary. If that's the case, it might be worth it to wait a night on that, see if anything happens.

On the other hand, he's my #2 choice for a lynch today.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Somebody took a guess that he was the mercenary. If that's the case, it might be worth it to wait a night on that, see if anything happens.

On the other hand, he's my #2 choice for a lynch today.

I hear what you're saying, but I'm more inclined to see the mercenary as someone who is a potential wolf. If bulletsponge is the mercenary, it's more of a risk to leave him around. So either he is exhibiting wolfish behavior, or he is perhaps the mercenary, neither of which are inclined to help the good guys.

My time is short as I am about to get ready for work. But I'm going to drop a placeholder vote on bulletsponge in case I don't get back.

VOTE BULLETSPONGE

[path12]

IIRC, bullet tends to drop hit and run votes more often than not. Doesn't make it any less suspicious though. I could be persuaded to head that direction pending further developments.

[MollyMurphy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I hear what you're saying, but I'm more inclined to see the mercenary as someone who is a potential wolf. If bulletsponge is the mercenary, it's more of a risk to leave him around. So either he is exhibiting wolfish behavior, or he is perhaps the mercenary, neither of which are inclined to help the good guys.

My time is short as I am about to get ready for work. But I'm going to drop a placeholder vote on bulletsponge in case I don't get back.

VOTE BULLETSPONGE

I am inclined to agree with you CR. He is #1 on my list and I have a dinner meeting tonight, so I will not be around later tonight. Before I cast a vote, I would like to hear from Bulletsponge.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by MollyMurphy

They either did believe him or they got lucky. The comment from DT doesn't seem like a lot to go on......

My comment was more along the lines that I couldn't believe DT would drop a hint for no reason before night actions are due.

Anyway, getting back to the st cronin business, voting for him is useful because it will reveal a couple of things.
1) If he's good then the chances are very high that AE is good. Presuming all this goes through there's every reason for the night watchman to guard AE's door. If St C is good, a wolf AE would be taking a huge risk saying that he didn't detect a night action by St C for very litte gain. Should St C turn out to be a wolf then it doesn't damn AE but it means we would want to look at him a lot more closely.
2) If st cronin turns up bad then, right enough, it makes alan look bad. It doesn't prove anything (I would have done the same thing in his position - although bearing in mind NTN was lynched on day one in my last game I'd have probably gone the other way). It also gives us more information about ITC, who now looks pretty good for switching his vote. If St Cronin's good then the information is not all that useful but at least we know that we don't have to be suspicious of Alan T based on the vote and that ITC has a bit more explaining to do.

I don't really expect people to vote for him solely based on this. Unfortunately I don't know if I have enough time to get my stuff together to say why I'm getting wolfish vibes from st cronin. But the whole charade about how DT's death is some sort of wolfish plan engineered to make Alan or him look suspicious just doesn't ring true to me.

[molson]

Originally Posted by MollyMurphy

I am inclined to agree with you CR. He is #1 on my list and I have a dinner meeting tonight, so I will not be around later tonight. Before I cast a vote, I would like to hear from Bulletsponge.

I'd like to hear from him to, but I think it's more likely if his neck's on the line.

VOTE BULLETSPONGE

[molson]

Just to be clear on my vote, I don't mean it as punishment for not posting much. I know he's a good player, and good players who are largely absent, checking in very rarely (so at least we know they're participating) kind of creeps me out. We need to try to engage people like that now, rather than days from now. Subject to change between now and the deadline.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

My comment was more along the lines that I couldn't believe DT would drop a hint for no reason before night actions are due.

Anyway, getting back to the st cronin business, voting for him is useful because it will reveal a couple of things.
1) If he's good then the chances are very high that AE is good. Presuming all this goes through there's every reason for the night watchman to guard AE's door. If St C is good, a wolf AE would be taking a huge risk saying that he didn't detect a night action by St C for very litte gain. Should St C turn out to be a wolf then it doesn't damn AE but it means we would want to look at him a lot more closely.
2) If st cronin turns up bad then, right enough, it makes alan look bad. It doesn't prove anything (I would have done the same thing in his position - although bearing in mind NTN was lynched on day one in my last game I'd have probably gone the other way). It also gives us more information about ITC, who now looks pretty good for switching his vote. If St Cronin's good then the information is not all that useful but at least we know that we don't have to be suspicious of Alan T based on the vote and that ITC has a bit more explaining to do.

I don't really expect people to vote for him solely based on this. Unfortunately I don't know if I have enough time to get my stuff together to say why I'm getting wolfish vibes from st cronin. But the whole charade about how DT's death is some sort of wolfish plan engineered to make Alan or him look suspicious just doesn't ring true to me.

It was just a theory. This seems to happen to me every game - nobody's saying anything, I suggest a possibility, and people say "I disagree with you, therefore you are a wolf!"

If you think I'm a wolf, then by all means vote for me. I think lynching me will mostly clear both ardent and Alan, which would make it worthwhile.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

So, you'll be wanting to lynch me I guess.

i dont. despite you bieng suspicous of me yesterday i have a good feeling your a red blooded american


Vote Molson

ive never played with you, so i dont trust you (not that i trust the vets that have pulled the wool over my eyes many times)

[Narcizo]

I don't have the luxury of pressuring bullet into providing an explanation. I don't think ITC is bad just because of shifted vote on day one. If we're all going to go with our hunches, which seems to be the order of the day, then I'd rather try and get some information doing so.

Vote St Cronin and that would be a nightfall vote.

At least put some sort of pressure on him and see what happens. If you make my vote a throwaway we're going to learn nothing today.

If people want to vote for me you're not going to hurt the team too much with a lynch. But when I come up good where are you going to be tomorrow?

Goodnight.

[molson]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

i dont. despite you bieng suspicous of me yesterday i have a good feeling your a red blooded american


Vote Molson

ive never played with you, so i dont trust you (not that i trust the vets that have pulled the wool over my eyes many times)

Actually, you played with me once, and you were a wolf, and you did a great job of staying under the radar.

[MollyMurphy]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

i dont. despite you bieng suspicous of me yesterday i have a good feeling your a red blooded american


Vote Molson

ive never played with you, so i dont trust you (not that i trust the vets that have pulled the wool over my eyes many times)

We still have not heard anything from you on your actions. I don't want to be a pile up on you, but I feel like you are not responding to the concerns that are out there about your actions.

[path12]

Votes thru #282:

ITC 2 -- Cronin(241), Ardent(264)
Bullet 2 -- Chief Rum(272), Molson(276)
Narcizo 1 -- Beargrowlz(255)
Molson 1 -- Bullet(279)
Cronin 1 -- Narcizo(280)

[ImTheCrew]

Ill be back right before deadline to catch up and to Check/Maybe change my vote

but for now

VOTE MOLSON

[path12]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I think we need to start thinking in terms of getting as much information as possible. Lynching someone like ITC (or me for that matter) is going to reveal nothing more than whether we are good or bad. While it's all well and good if we hit a bad guy we have to accept that, on day 2 apparently without much information, the chances are we're not going to. Without a seer we need to start looking to get more information from lynches. Unfortunate but true.

So how do we get information? By targeting people that already seem to be tied to other people. Clear them and we're partially clearing other people. Find out they're bad and we get a line of inquiry to lead us to other people.

The only thing I have a problem with here is the fact that wolves very very rarely are going to tie themselves together day 1. I would be surprised if any of the wolves (whether two or three) were on the same person yesterday.

So I don't see who's tied to whom, unless we take the case of Ardent tapping Cronin's phone, or Alan switching to ntn, which I think we all agree is not a move that is necessarily causing any suspicion at this point.

Without a seer now I think it was early for Ardent to come out, but he's really now our best source of information if he's not playing us......but there hasn't been a counter and until there is a credible one I think we have to err on the side of caution and place him in the unvoteable category. I think to follow that line of thinking we also at least have better options then Cronin, even though it is certainly possible he could be bad and just didn't PM last night for some reason.

[molson]

Originally Posted by molson

Actually, you played with me once, and you were a wolf, and you did a great job of staying under the radar.

And obviously, that doesn't make you a wolf here, but I think you're dangerous enough that we can't let you hover on the periphery until the end of the game, with nothing about you to analyze.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by molson

Actually, you played with me once, and you were a wolf, and you did a great job of staying under the radar.

really? hmm

must have been the werewolf "werewolf" game. hehe that was funny eating everyone and have them all at each others throat. btw i posted a lot in that game

We still have not heard anything from you on your actions. I don't want to be a pile up on you, but I feel like you are not responding to the concerns that are out there about your actions.

ok ill say this once, when i voted for Saladana yesterday it was a completly random vote, i didnt read many posts before i voted, im lazy. if my votes ever make no sense its probably because i didnt read many posts

all my votes on the first days are random

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by molson

And obviously, that doesn't make you a wolf here, but I think you're dangerous enough that we can't let you hover on the periphery until the end of the game, with nothing about you to analyze.

i posted a lot in that game, i wasnt "under the radar" it wasnt my fault i didnt put a big bullseye on my back.

[molson]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

really? hmm

must have been the werewolf "werewolf" game. hehe that was funny eating everyone and have them all at each others throat. btw i posted a lot in that game

Ya, that was it, "House of Frankenstein".

(And I was the one bitching earlier about bring up player reputations/past games)

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by molson

Ya, that was it, "House of Frankenstein".

(And I was the one bitching earlier about bring up player reputations/past games)

ok sorry, we shall never speak of that game again.

btw maybe i should now say this, im a American who despises all things Commie

[molson]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

ok sorry, we shall never speak of that game again.

I was mocking myself for bringing that up, if that wasn't clear.

Anyway, I'm just looking for info at this point. My vote induced your vote against me, which induced another vote against me, which may make me dead soon, but if not, I'll at least have some kind of meaningful voting history to work with.

It's in no way set in stone.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

IIRC, bullet tends to drop hit and run votes more often than not. Doesn't make it any less suspicious though. I could be persuaded to head that direction pending further developments.

This is what I meant earlier. I think pressing bullet ends up just being a waste of time. He tends to vote rashly and provide little information in regards to it. Just his play style. I'd likely vote for him if I can't find any better choice to go with.

Originally Posted by st.cronin

It was just a theory. This seems to happen to me every game - nobody's saying anything, I suggest a possibility, and people say "I disagree with you, therefore you are a wolf!"

If you think I'm a wolf, then by all means vote for me. I think lynching me will mostly clear both ardent and Alan, which would make it worthwhile.

Yeah, but I'm nothing important that I need someone lynched to prove my innocence. I just think that keeping in mind my actions today is important but there are likely better leads to follow. I find it very unlikely that 3 wolves all came out on day 1-2 to protect their own in a game this size. There likely isn't many more than 3 to start with. I think the worst case here is St.cronin is a wolf who luckily didn't submit the order and has found a comfortable place with two villagers vouching for him. Even with that its not worth it to me to pursue that today.

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

Ill be back right before deadline to catch up and to Check/Maybe change my vote

but for now

VOTE MOLSON

Once again, ITC votes to tie things up, this time though with his own neck on the line and a vote for bulletsponge helping keep him from dying.

Originally Posted by path12

The only thing I have a problem with here is the fact that wolves very very rarely are going to tie themselves together day 1. I would be surprised if any of the wolves (whether two or three) were on the same person yesterday.

So I don't see who's tied to whom, unless we take the case of Ardent tapping Cronin's phone, or Alan switching to ntn, which I think we all agree is not a move that is necessarily causing any suspicion at this point.

Without a seer now I think it was early for Ardent to come out, but he's really now our best source of information if he's not playing us......but there hasn't been a counter and until there is a credible one I think we have to err on the side of caution and place him in the unvoteable category. I think to follow that line of thinking we also at least have better options then Cronin, even though it is certainly possible he could be bad and just didn't PM last night for some reason.

I don't follow here Path. Ardent had a one time use item. Why would him coming out now be bad? If anything its the perfect time just in case he dies later. Him dying with information seems rather pointless when he isn't protecting a role. I think either you're doing something fishy here or just didn't quite follow the rules and ardent's story closely. My gut tells me you're a better player than that and since you already were on my list of people I was watching, it only made me more suspicious of you.



I think if I had to vote right now, it would be Path, but that seems rather wasted with the current vote totals. Guess for now I'll wait and see how it goes.

[st.cronin]

Alan, I don't see where ardent's item was one time use. Are you sure about that?

[Alan T]

Eh, just that we've already discussed today that items are single use it seems. The bolds are my doing.

Originally Posted by Lathum

ITEMS- There are items available in the game. Players will randomly start with items or find them at random. Players with night actions may choose to bypass their night action with for a chance to receive an item. Players may choose to pass these items if they like. All items are single use unless otherwise specified. There may be more then one of a particular item.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Yeah, I missed that. It says that all items are single use.

I guess I have to guess that if his item was more than a single use he wouldn't have just come out and say gee I have this item come kill me.

[st.cronin]

Thanks, Alan. Missed that as well.

[Lathum]

If an item is multiple use it will be posted for public knowledge

[Lorena]

This is not a good week for me so I have asked Lathum to replace me, sorry all. I'll place my vote and will probably be my last post in this thread unless Lathum can't find someone then I'll just finish the game but my heart is not in it anymore.

I'm a little torn between Narcizo and bulletsponge. Narcizo placed his vote on ntndeacon for the sake of "conversation", bulletsponge placed a second vote on saldana before I unvoted for him. I do think there is something to the second or third vote being placed on someone and it almost seems hypocritical that I'm placing my vote on someone who already has votes but it's really just a hunch at this point. I could have easily voted for someone that doesn't have any votes but I seriously think one of these is a wolf:

vote narcizo

[Lorena]

Votes thru #282:

ITC 2 -- Cronin(241), Ardent(264)
Bullet 2 -- Chief Rum(272), Molson(276)
Narcizo 2 -- Beargrowlz(255), DODGERCHICK (297)
Molson 2 -- Bullet(279), imthecrew (284)
Cronin 1 -- Narcizo(280)

that's 4 people with 2 votes, i'd like to see who will come rescue one of these 4 players.

[Lorena]

whoops, that should read "votes thru 297"

[st.cronin]

still to vote: Alan, Molly, path