What will the outcome be of the mid terms?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

As of late last night Mastriano wasn't conceding but I don't see any updates as to whether he gave in this morning. If he did I don't think it's public knowledge yet.

55.7% vs 42.5%, that's a pretty sound thumping.

[Edward64]

CNN just called WI for GOP Johnson. 48-49 now. 3 left to go.

[BYU 14]

Not sure why AZ has not been called, from what I have heard the last ballots to count in Maricopa, the largest county, are mail in ballots, which traditionally lean very blue and Kelly has a comfortable lead.

I know Butter posted earlier that Cortez Masto should still rally in Nevada, but it seems like Laxalt has a solid lead with 80% counted, so looking like it comes down to Georgia again.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Not sure why AZ has not been called, from what I have heard the last ballots to count in Maricopa, the largest county, are mail in ballots, which traditionally lean very blue and Kelly has a comfortable lead.

I know Butter posted earlier that Cortez Masto should still rally in Nevada, but it seems like Laxalt has a solid lead with 80% counted, so looking like it comes down to Georgia again.

I think Arizona's remaining votes have some sort of partisan skew like that it's just in-person votes or something that are more red than general so that's not as "safely" blue as it looks.

Meanwhile, Jon Ralston isn't so sure about Nevada being done and he's been a really good both for this election and in 2020. The long and short is that it's unknown how many outstanding mail-in votes are in blue Clark county and we may not know for a couple of days:





SI

[larrymcg421]

Predict It still likes Cortez Masto (68%).

[Edward64]

CNN said key issues in GA was Inflation and then Abortion.

Survey on "Share my values" and "Integrity & Honesty" was weird. Walker won big on the former, and Warnock won big on the latter.

[Lathum]

Anyone seen info on when they are going to start counting again in these undecided states or is it a mail in situation that will drag on.

[Edward64]

From what I heard for AZ, they continue to count. But mail in ballots have until Fri or Sat to be received for them to be counted.

[Ksyrup]

So it looks like NY is likely going to give the Rs what possibly is their winning margin to take the House. Just as expected...

[miked]

Originally Posted by Edward64

CNN said key issues in GA was Inflation and then Abortion.

Survey on "Share my values" and "Integrity & Honesty" was weird. Walker won big on the former, and Warnock won big on the latter.

Share my values is code for "he will vote however the leaders tell him to". It also lets these horribly racist people in the burbs and beyond let everyone know they are not really racist.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

From what I heard for AZ, they continue to count. But mail in ballots have until Fri or Sat to be received for them to be counted.

Maricopa county said they will have 99% counted by Fri.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by henry296

I would expect the 2% who vote Libertarian to lean R in the runoff as well. If everyone shows up again with just 2 choices, I think Walker wins. Turnout will be the big factor.

We hear this a lot. But as someone who has often voted Libertarian (and there's never seemingly an interesting candidate), it's a statement, not a candidate preference. I've never ended up voting Republican for an office over that logic. I often just don't see the difference between the parties. The logic is that we need a third party to put pressure on the others to work in a less partisan manner. That's seemingly contradictory, but the idea is that partisanship leads to less effective governance, long-term.

[Edward64]

I think it comes down to turnout. Run-offs historically have less people voting. Who can keep their base more energized.

MSNBC said Obama will be needed to help campaign.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I see DeSantis as being a viable alternative to Trump for many Republicans (and Independents). He is the only contender that I see (right now) who wants & has a reason to challenge Trump, and has strong enough of an important base (e.g. State of FL).

So the battle between them will inevitably weaken Trump and that is good. It will be good to have a relatively normal GOP candidate.

Serious question: How much better than Trump is DeSantis? I don't see them as being that different. When I think 'relatively normal GOP candidate', I think 'somebody closer to Liz Cheney than Ron DeSantis'.

At this point I really don't care if DeSantis runs, because he's Trump Lite (and not very Lite, maybe closer to Trump B)

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

We hear this a lot. But as someone who has often voted Libertarian (and there's never seemingly an interesting candidate), it's a statement, not a candidate preference. I've never ended up voting Republican for an office over that logic. I often just don't see the difference between the parties. The logic is that we need a third party to put pressure on the others to work in a less partisan manner. That's seemingly contradictory, but the idea is that partisanship leads to less effective governance, long-term.

I absolutely agree. I think a ranked-choice system is about the only way we can create a viable multi-party system. I would love to see a Progressive party, Green Party, Centrist party, Conservative party etc. and force colitions to build to govern.

Originally Posted by Edward64

I think it comes down to turnout. Run-offs historically have less people voting. Who can keep their base more energized.

MSNBC said Obama will be needed to help campaign.

Obama needs to be on every college campus in Georgia for the next 4 weeks. He and Michelle just needs to move into the W downtown until the runoff is over. Stacy Abrams needs her full attention on her "get out the vote" apparatus. Mainly, I believe Warnock needs to focus on some positive campaigning like he did when he won the last election.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I think it comes down to turnout. Run-offs historically have less people voting. Who can keep their base more energized.

MSNBC said Obama will be needed to help campaign.

And get Stacy Abrams on the ground immediately

SI

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Serious question: How much better than Trump is DeSantis? I don't see them as being that different. When I think 'relatively normal GOP candidate', I think 'somebody closer to Liz Cheney than Ron DeSantis'.

At this point I really don't care if DeSantis runs, because he's Trump Lite (and not very Lite, maybe closer to Trump B)

I'd like to learn more about him, rather than call him Trump Lite. He won an election last night by a margin that has us calling Florida a red state, when it has been rather purple for a long time.

I'd prefer not to dismiss mass numbers of people as bad or deplorable as the answer to any political question. That seems to be the easy answer on both sides these days.

There's an opportunity to find a new star somewhere, as Republican power-brokers finally have some evidence that Trump is a real albatross.

But the other real issue is abortion rights. Candidates who don't see that the effective answer to this issue is what other non-theocracies in Europe have done with limitations and protections, and this should be legislated, not left to the courts, are going to automatically lose a huge number of potential votes - many of them otherwise leaning to their side.

If they get caught up in the "when does life begin" argument, it becomes too polarizing by definition and we have the current divide on the issue.

You have to get from point A to point B. Republicans fear that they have a large contingent who only votes Republican because they're anti-abortion, and they would sit out the election otherwise or even go third party.

Reagan found the sweet spot. Talked a good game, but let it be known that he'd respect Roe v. Wade. Third party attempts failed on that side. Even Ross Perot's Reform party, which seemed very promising at the time, got hijacked by the anti-abortion groups and reduced to nothing. Candidates like Mike Huckabee grew decent bases, but had no broader appeal.

And then came Trump. Trump blew it when he nominated justices who didn't see the need for this uncomfortable piece of jurisprudence that kept the peace and kept the Republican party somewhat cobbled together.

So that's two real howlers from Trump. One, the me-firstism that led to January 6 and his current barnstorming tour of asshattery. And two, the blindness when it came to nominating justices that kept the uncomfortable Republican coalition somewhat united.

The Republicans need a new star. It probably isn't DeSantis, but if you're looking for winners in this mess, he got a big boost yesterday and he's in position to take on Trump. Many have failed in that mission, but when the big bully starts tap-tap-tapping on you, either you answer or you spend the rest of the school year cowering in a corner.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Serious question: How much better than Trump is DeSantis? I don't see them as being that different. When I think 'relatively normal GOP candidate', I think 'somebody closer to Liz Cheney than Ron DeSantis'.

At this point I really don't care if DeSantis runs, because he's Trump Lite (and not very Lite, maybe closer to Trump B)

Specifically, when discussing just DeSantis and Trump ...

I'd say being different is being better. They may not be that different in expressed policies but they are certainly different as "a person".

That's hard to define but there's plenty of examples. There's not a tweet/drama/crisis etc. every 2-3 days. There's not a need to lie or bash/ridicule someone everyday. Communication style is more clear and consistent. Less hypocrisy. Definitely not near as narcissistic.

Basically, DeSantis is (more) sane.

[Edward64]

Oh God. KellyAnne is on Fox.

Hope she (and George) have gotten her daughter's mental health & family taken care of first.

[Solecismic]

One other point I'd like to make about the outcome: incumbents.

On the governor side, incumbents are 26-0, with Dunleavy (R) likely winning Alaska and Sisolak (D) in some trouble.

In the Senate, incumbents are 24-0, with Murkowski (R) likely winning in Alaska (ranked choice saving her), Kelly (D) likely holding Arizona, Cortez Masto (D) in a close one in Nevada and Warnock (D) going to a runoff next month.

A Republican wave would have looked very different. This mid-term election, with -1/0/1 on the table for the Senate and the House looking like +10/+15, was fairly neutral, slight R lean.

But with all the division out there and non-stop attention-grabbing, incumbents were also big winners yesterday.

[JPhillips]

Politically, a D Senate and R +1-5 House is probably a best case scenario for Dems in 2024.

[albionmoonlight]

I know that not every race has been called, but I’m gonna go ahead and assume that these midterms mean that Christmas is canceled this year. I went ahead today in pre-ordered my Fentanyl tree for December.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I think a ranked-choice system is about the only way we can create a viable multi-party system. I would love to see a Progressive party, Green Party, Centrist party, Conservative party etc. and force colitions to build to govern.

Australia is a good example here. They've had ranked choice for a century. They have two dominant parties, who by all accounts are governing increasingly badly, giving the US a run for it's money. Point being, I'd like to see ranked choice as well but it won't make a significant differerence. The major issues are not systemic in my view; they are the fault of the electorate itself. It's more comfortable to point fingers at the system than blame ourselves, but ...

The other point is that having minority parties have more influence can be just as bad as not having that. It results in their pet issues having outsized influence when it comes to form a 'coalition government' in a parliamentary type of system.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I know that not every race has been called, but I’m gonna go ahead and assume that these midterms mean that Christmas is canceled this year. I went ahead today in pre-ordered my Fentanyl tree for December.

New Fox panic.

Fentanyl laced Christmas trees sold by illegal immigrants.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Australia is a good example here.

I read the other day (when I was researching on how to get stopped and taken into special interview room by Australian immigration & customs ), that it's compulsory voting in Australia.

You get a fine if you don't have a legit reason. Its done on a weekend. Many places have food. I like the weekend and free food idea.

[JPhillips]

The GOP is fully committed to blaming this on bad candidates rather than election denial, Dobbs, and threats to cut Social Security and Medicare. If they come back with the same policies and culture war bullshit in 2024 it won't matter who is running.

[GrantDawg]

Am I the only one that recognizes that Biden is going to get a large part of the credit for the mid-term results, but I can't help but believe the results where more despite him? He is still super unpopular, and most people believe the government is going in the wrong direction. They just said by their vote that the other side is even worse.

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[RainMaker]

How is Nevada still so bad at counting votes?

[Lathum]

Lake is going to win Arizona. I suspect her people know exactly what votes are left to count and how they will break. If she thought she was at any risk she would be front and center already talking about fraud. I know she made a passing comment yesterday but since from what I can see shes been calm.

[Lathum]

and as I type that CNN reports Lake is starting to go crazy...

[Lathum]

Wow.

Frischs lead is down to 62 over Boebert. Crazy. She's going to pull it off but crazy close.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Am I the only one that recognizes that Biden is going to get a large part of the credit for the mid-term results, but I can't help but believe the results where more despite him? He is still super unpopular, and most people believe the government is going in the wrong direction. They just said by their vote that the other side is even worse.

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I think that the consensus is that the D's won despite the President. I watched a lot of Fox & Friends during my cardio at the gym last week. They were hammering Biden for not campaigning more because they believed he was more of a hindrance than a help. I think the democratic candidates told him to stay away more than they asked him to stump for them.

I might be giving him way more credit than he deserves but I don't think Biden wants to do this again. I think that is why we are hearing more and more about potential nominees for 2024. I think beating Trump was personal for him. If Trump was the favorite again, I think it would be more likely for him to run again because I believe he believes he is the Trump stopper. If Trump is not in the mix, I think Biden will serve out his term trying to put the VP in position to be the nominee.

[Ksyrup]

Unfortunately, I think she's going to survive based on the outstanding votes...

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— Kyung Lah (@KyungLahCNN) November 9, 2022

[Lathum]

Jesus. The second most populous county in Arizona just announced they may not finish counting ballots until Nov 14th or 15th.

[Ksyrup]

Man, this stuff just keeps going back and forth. I hope THIS one is right!

UPDATE: Democrat Adam Frisch is poised to upset Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert in CO-3, based on a 9NEWS analysis of remaining ballots, which are largely in counties where Frisch holds strong leads. #copolitics

— Kyle Clark (@KyleClark) November 10, 2022

[Lathum]

I was just coming here to post this

[larrymcg421]

Nevada looking bad. There weren't nearly as many mail-in ballots as Dems were hoping from Clark County.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Jesus. The second most populous county in Arizona just announced they may not finish counting ballots until Nov 14th or 15th.

That's just awful. People need to know. Our area went to those Dominion machines a few years ago. They're like sci-fi supercomputers, sturdy as trucks. Paper receipts that light up and dance for you, easy-to-read screens, can't screw it up. And results as soon as the polls close. I bet you could even do your taxes on one of them.

If they're somehow "cheating" with those machines, at least we're having a rather efficient blast while they do it. But, if you're really into conspiracy theories, isn't the bigger danger a lack of technology and counting things by hand slowly while everyone sleeps?

A lot harder to cheat with these massive efficient behemoths that store paper receipts everyone has verified and they can probably make your morning coffee as well while you're speeding through the recount.

[GrantDawg]

40% of Nevada ballots and 80% of Arizona ballots are vote by mail. So, that is really and apples/orange comparison. Each ballot has to be verified before tabulation, which is what takes so long. They also allow people to mail ballots on election day, so they give extra time for ballots to be revieved. It is a good way to give more people a chance to vote at the cost of a long count process.

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[HerRealName]

These Fetterman memes about being big and tall and always wearing shorts and a hoodie are hitting a little close to home.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

These Fetterman memes about being big and tall and always wearing shorts and a hoodie are hitting a little close to home.

It's good to see the hoodies and shorts in winter crowd finally getting some representation. That's my go-to work from home attire.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Nevada looking bad. There weren't nearly as many mail-in ballots as Dems were hoping from Clark County.

And back and forth we go here, too. The first batch was overwhelmingly blue:

First Clark dump of only 14K new ballots and CCM reduces statewide deficit to 18K.

Ds have to love first dump, gaining 5K out of first 14K ballots, with 65 percent to 30 percent spread.

That's first 14K of 84K in Clark.

If margins continue like that, she will be ahead.

IF. https://t.co/9ETYuk9So8

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 10, 2022

SI

[GrantDawg]

The House is still in play as well. We could be looking at a 1 seat majority either way.

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[Lathum]

could you imagine if the dems hold the house by 1 seat and it is because Boebert loses? That would be amazing.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

And back and forth we go here, too. The first batch was overwhelmingly blue:

First Clark dump of only 14K new ballots and CCM reduces statewide deficit to 18K.

Ds have to love first dump, gaining 5K out of first 14K ballots, with 65 percent to 30 percent spread.

That's first 14K of 84K in Clark.

If margins continue like that, she will be ahead.

IF. https://t.co/9ETYuk9So8

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 10, 2022

SI

Fantastic. With numbers like that, I wonder if Sisolak can actually hold on in the Gov race.

[JPhillips]

Boebert now up by 36 after the last batch.

[JPhillips]

dola

Sure looks like the House is going to come down to NY Dems obeyed a court order and OH GOPers didn't.

[stevew]

Nevada and arizona need to get their shit together in the next two years ffs.

[Brian Swartz]

With the margins this close, I don't think it even matters much who ends up with the majority. Nobody's passing anything of substance anyway.

I also really don't get the anger at taking a few days to count the votes. We have campaigns that are several months long on the short end, and plenty of time before the winner takes office.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I'd like to learn more about him, rather than call him Trump Lite. He won an election last night by a margin that has us calling Florida a red state, when it has been rather purple for a long time.

I'd prefer not to dismiss mass numbers of people as bad or deplorable as the answer to any political question. That seems to be the easy answer on both sides these days.

I really don't get this response. I didn't dismiss large numbers of people. I did characterize DeSantis, and I did it based on things that are public record; his actions and statements as governor.

Originally Posted by Solecismic

The Republicans need a new star. It probably isn't DeSantis, but if you're looking for winners in this mess, he got a big boost yesterday and he's in position to take on Trump. Many have failed in that mission, but when the big bully starts tap-tap-tapping on you, either you answer or you spend the rest of the school year cowering in a corner.

The only way for them to get a new star who is the 'vaguely responsible governance' category is for their voters to start voting for more of those people in primaries. It has to be fixed at the bottom instead of the top, and I don't see that happening until Trumpism is good and dead. The earliest that can happen in 2024. I think the best thing for both the Republican Party and the nation politically would be for Trump to get nominated again and get crushed in the general. Politicans will go where they think the votes are.

Originally Posted by Edward64

That's hard to define but there's plenty of examples. There's not a tweet/drama/crisis etc. every 2-3 days. There's not a need to lie or bash/ridicule someone everyday. Communication style is more clear and consistent. Less hypocrisy. Definitely not near as narcissistic.

Basically, DeSantis is (more) sane.

I think there's an argument to be made that this actually makes DeSantis worse/more dangerous. Trump's incompetence mitigated how much damage he was able to do in a lot of ways. Trump, but more competent/sane, is potentially a much bigger threat.