Werewolf LX - Dog Soldiers (Game over, wolves win)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

Now today, you've put a vote for Purdue out there right away after arguing about not voting for him yesterday.

I think I've explained that. The best I have to go on is that BK was trying to save PB. I don't have much reason to go after anyone else.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

My problem with this analysis is that I would have expected Purdue to be scanned yesterday, and thus either cleared or not. The fact that nobody has come forward means one of three things:

Actually, I wouldn't have expected PB to be scanned yesterday. I think that it's somewhat irrelevant who got scanned yesterday - if I were a seer, I'd think of all the data as not very useful until I have a good idea if I'm real or fake. So even if I did scan PB, I wouldn't come out with it, because I'd be putting a target on my head, and the info wouldn't necessarily mean anything.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

1) Purdue is not a wolf. In which Pass' position of being against a vote for him yesterday and for a vote for him today is inconsistent.

2) Purdue is a wolf, and was saved by Barkeep, Pass or jeheinz in some combination. In which case Pass' early vote for him today makes sense in a distancing sort of way, with plenty of time to change it if Brad is actually in danger.

3) The seer scanned somebody else. This makes sense if you realize that the final vote count originally showed Purdue and I tied -- since I had a later first vote on me, the seer might have thought I would have gotten through the tiebreaker and scanned me. (the fact PB's vote wasn't showing on me wasn't pointed out until after deadline). Or the seer might have been unsure of how the tiebreaker worked and went in another direction. I don't know.

1. I fully take blame for being inconsistent -- if I know who all the wolves were on Day 1, this would be a pretty boring game!
2. If PB is a wolf, you should vote for him, rather than chasing this theory.
3. I do believe the seer scanned someone else.

[Passacaglia]

Well, that was fun! I'm heading home -- maybe there will be more to hash out when I get back.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Right. Do you really think two wolves voted for the same guy to save PB within minutes of each other?

In a large game? Nope. In a smaller game where one or two lynches going right change everything, I don;t know. I've never been a wolf in a smaller game, only in larger ones. There, I try to lay low, which is easier to do in a large game. Here, maybe you do the opposite. Make yourself as visible as possible so that people go elsewhere.

Remember, BK was only exposed because of the good luck of path being the duke and choosing the right target, otherwise, if it was a plan, it would have worked.

Now, I'm not saying that's what actually happened, but you have to admit, it isn;t as crazy as you make it sound.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'll respond to this first. The point is that it's a gutsy move for the three wolves to get all associated with each other like that. Generally, when a theory leads to all the wolves being spotted easily, it's probably wrong. For example, when you came out and said that Anxiety was good when he was Lucifer, cronin and I knew you were lying, but figured that something else was going on, rather than assuming you were evil.

How did you know he was lying if cronin couldn't tell you I was Lucifer?

[Abe Sargent]

For now, several people mark me as a bit snaky, with PB and Pass at the top, so I am following the lead of the person who is mostly cleared to my thinking - path.

Vote Pass

[Abe Sargent]

Sucks that I just missed him though, but it sounds like he's coming back later.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Actually, I wouldn't have expected PB to be scanned yesterday. I think that it's somewhat irrelevant who got scanned yesterday - if I were a seer, I'd think of all the data as not very useful until I have a good idea if I'm real or fake. So even if I did scan PB, I wouldn't come out with it, because I'd be putting a target on my head, and the info wouldn't necessarily mean anything.

You would certainly come out with it if he turned up wolf. At worst you find out that you're not the real seer, and in doing so let's the other seer know which they are.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

1. I fully take blame for being inconsistent -- if I know who all the wolves were on Day 1, this would be a pretty boring game!
2. If PB is a wolf, you should vote for him, rather than chasing this theory.
3. I do believe the seer scanned someone else.

If you come up bad, I think PB becomes tomorrow's vote. If you come up good, then that is up in the air and I would definitely think we'd get a scan on him tonight.

I'm as wrong at times with my analysis as everyone else who plays this game, but I think that in this case we have the best chance to learn something whether you come up good or bad (which is unusual for me day 2).

[Schmidty]

Well, I have no reason to doubt path. Lead the way Moses!!!


Vote Pass

[Passacaglia]

Time for the reveal, then. I'm one of the seers. Don't know which one.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Time for the reveal, then. I'm one of the seers. Don't know which one.

Who was your view yesterday?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by path12

Who was your view yesterday?

Ditto this. I split in 25 minutes, unlikely to come back, so for me to move my vote, it's kinda important.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

Remember, BK was only exposed because of the good luck of path being the duke and choosing the right target, otherwise, if it was a plan, it would have worked.

This is why I've been fingering PB -- I feel like BK felt safe trying to save PB because he wasn't under attack. It seems that a lot of the argument for voting for me rests on the premise that BK was trying to save PB -- possibly along with me. Why not go with the simpler part of the premise, instead of the more convoluted part?

[Passacaglia]

I chose jeheinz, since new players scare me. He came up human.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I chose jeheinz, since new players scare me. He came up human.

Boo!

Haha, seriously though, since I know I'm human, I'll take my chances and do this while I brainstorm...

Unvote Passacaglia

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

You would certainly come out with it if he turned up wolf. At worst you find out that you're not the real seer, and in doing so let's the other seer know which they are.

I don't think I would -- if jeheinz turned up a wolf, I wouldn't have come out with it.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Boo!

Haha, seriously though, since I know I'm human, I'll take my chances and do this while I brainstorm...

Unvote Passacaglia

Remember, though, I could be the fake seer. So you're not necessarily cleared in my book.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I don't think I would -- if jeheinz turned up a wolf, I wouldn't have come out with it.

Why on earth not? If right, we're down to one wolf. If wrong, you know you're not the right seer and the other one could be certain of their views.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Remember, though, I could be the fake seer. So you're not necessarily cleared in my book.

Oh I know, but your scan was correct. The fact it was correct at least makes me not want to see you immediately lynched. I may not be cleared, but you've at least got a 50/50 shot at being someone very important. There's really only a few scenarios

- You're lying and you're a wolf. I'd entertain this if you live through the night somehow and then don't scan a wolf. That's the only case to revisit you

- You're the fake seer. Then let's at least make them night kill you

- You're the real seer. Then we're a touch screwed here.

In none of those though does it make sense to lynch you today.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Time for the reveal, then. I'm one of the seers. Don't know which one.

Important question - Are we positive that there are more than two?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by path12

Why on earth not? If right, we're down to one wolf. If wrong, you know you're not the right seer and the other one could be certain of their views.

I'd agree with this logic. I think of the two people scanning, the first one to get a positive should reveal. Then it's only these cases

Real Seer, Real Result - YAY

Fake Seer, Fake Result - BOO. But we lost someone of no real value and the Real Seer knows they are for real

Fake Seer, Real Result - YAY. The ruleset says "random" answer. Not necessarily always incorrect. I'd imagine there is a sliver of hope that a Wolf could get scanned and a Wolf answer could be returned.

[path12]

Dola, I'm not sure if I buy the reveal or not. Cons:

1) Seer is the obvious role to fake in this game, because nobody is going to come out to challenge you, unless by some freak coincidence the real seer found the fake one last turn.

2) jeheinz wasn't in the conversation much at all yesterday, so it seems a strange choice to me when there were much better candidates to scan IMO.

Pro:

1, 1A and 2) I don't want to lynch a seer.

Hmmm.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

Why on earth not? If right, we're down to one wolf. If wrong, you know you're not the right seer and the other one could be certain of their views.

That's a good point. Especially since if I were the fake seer, it's not very likely that I would mistakenly scan someone as a wolf.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Important question - Are we positive that there are more than two?

I think the logic on this was that there were 3 last game, so the hunch is there are 3 this game.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Important question - Are we positive that there are more than two?

We know that there is one that gets an accurate view and one that gets a randomly right or wrong view. In addition, the wolf lover can also view.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Real Seer, Real Result - YAY

Actually, at this point, since the wolves will probably kill me tonight, I hope I'm the fake seer. At this point, it's just about making the wolves kill me, instead of you guys.

[path12]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I'd agree with this logic. I think of the two people scanning, the first one to get a positive should reveal. Then it's only these cases

Real Seer, Real Result - YAY

Fake Seer, Fake Result - BOO. But we lost someone of no real value and the Real Seer knows they are for real

Fake Seer, Real Result - YAY. The ruleset says "random" answer. Not necessarily always incorrect. I'd imagine there is a sliver of hope that a Wolf could get scanned and a Wolf answer could be returned.

I can think of one more result: Fake Seer, Fake Result, Real Role gets lynched. Followed closely no doubt by the fake seer.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I think the logic on this was that there were 3 last game, so the hunch is there are 3 this game.

I think he's talking about seers, not wolves. I *think* we're sure.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think he's talking about seers, not wolves. I *think* we're sure.

Ah gotcha. Yeah, I think I'm about 99% positive that there are only 2 good-sided Seer's

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Actually, at this point, since the wolves will probably kill me tonight, I hope I'm the fake seer. At this point, it's just about making the wolves kill me, instead of you guys.

Exactly. Frankly, real or not, there is zero point in us lynching you today. If we want to rehash a lie/truth/fake seer/real seer we might as well do that tomorrow. We'll have an excellent read on your wolfiness after the night kill. If you're alive and don't hit a wolf, I'll be more than suspicious. But for today, there is no point in doing that.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Time for the reveal, then. I'm one of the seers. Don't know which one.

This is interesting to me. Hold on

Unvote Pass

Okay, let's chat. I've moved my vote off for now.

In this game, would a wolf false reveal as a seer? I'm just wondering. It'd be a brillant move. Peg a wolf as a "seer", have us vote for him, and then each of the two seers think they are the bad one, and neither reveals.

You didn;t do that though. You only "cleared" someone, not pegged someone. That makes me more inclined to beleive you.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by path12

We know that there is one that gets an accurate view and one that gets a randomly right or wrong view. In addition, the wolf lover can also view.

Will st. cronin try to trick us in our PM by not telling the person that he is the real seer or the random seer or whatever? That's an important question.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by path12

I can think of one more result: Fake Seer, Fake Result, Real Role gets lynched. Followed closely no doubt by the fake seer.

True, but isn't that really in play at all times? I mean there is one good role left (that isn't used, the Seer). Crossing you off as the duke, there are 9 people we could lynch.

It's 1 in 9 we lynch the seer on accident. 11.1%. If we take Pass out and clear him as a lynch candidate for today at least, it's 1 in 8 now, or 12.5%. So we've only really increased our chances of lynching the Seer today by 1.4%.

[path12]

It's not worth the risk. I'll go the other direction.

UNVOTE PASSACAGLIA
VOTE PURDUEBRAD

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Will st. cronin try to trick us in our PM by not telling the person that he is the real seer or the random seer or whatever? That's an important question.

I'd guess both "Seer's" got the exact same PM, but that one of them hasn't seen his test scores from Medic training.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Will st. cronin try to trick us in our PM by not telling the person that he is the real seer or the random seer or whatever? That's an important question.

It's my understanding that each will just be told they are a seer. I'll try to find a clarification in the rules.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Will st. cronin try to trick us in our PM by not telling the person that he is the real seer or the random seer or whatever? That's an important question.

I believe so. There were some things in the PM that made it seem like I was real, and some that made it seem like I was fake. I think if he told someone they were the fake seer, then they would know it was pointless -- which would take away the whole mechanic.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by path12

It's my understanding that each will just be told they are a seer. I'll try to find a clarification in the rules.

Ok, I appreciate it. I'm off to the store for a while and will check in before dinner.

[path12]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Roles
1. Medic (can discover if a player is wolf or human)
2. Medic who finished last in his class (thinks he's the seer, but gets a random result)3. Bodyguard
4. Duke
5. Wolf enthusiast (wins with the wolves, but counts as a villager, is able to scan players to discover wolf/human, and also can duke once per game).

There we go.

[jeheinz72]

Well, I'm likely out until morning. I can't see anyone else worth putting a vote on so I might as well...
Vote PurdueBrad

My hunch is he's the Wolf Lover, so I fully expect someone else to die.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I believe so. There were some things in the PM that made it seem like I was real, and some that made it seem like I was fake. I think if he told someone they were the fake seer, then they would know it was pointless -- which would take away the whole mechanic.

Then doesn't that make the role useless virtually?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I believe so. There were some things in the PM that made it seem like I was real, and some that made it seem like I was fake. I think if he told someone they were the fake seer, then they would know it was pointless -- which would take away the whole mechanic.

I forgot to mention that when it came down to it, all that stuff was probably for flavor, anyway, and he wasn't trying to drop any hints.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Then doesn't that make the role useless virtually?

It's only useless if they KNOW that they're the fake seer. If they don't know, then both think they might be the real seer. The good news is that the other seer will know which one they are tomorrow.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

It's only useless if they KNOW that they're the fake seer. If they don't know, then both think they might be the real seer. The good news is that the other seer will know which one they are tomorrow.

Ok, I'll trust you today.

Unvote Pass

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

It's only useless if they KNOW that they're the fake seer. If they don't know, then both think they might be the real seer. The good news is that the other seer will know which one they are tomorrow.

Do we know though if upon death the Fake is revealed as the Fake? I think the only way the Seer's really will know who is who is when we lynch incorrectly one of their "recommendations".

[Schmidty]

I don't really know where to go now. I'll think more about it when I get back.

[path12]

The only other vote that comes to mind would be voting je in order to see whether Pass is accurate or not. But since he's likely dead after tonight I don't know if that's 100% enough for the other seer to determine which he is.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I'd guess both "Seer's" got the exact same PM, but that one of them hasn't seen his test scores from Medic training.

This is correct.