Werewolf Small Game XI -- Divination Nation! (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN!! )

[DaddyTorgo]

dola

clearly not my longest post ever. just one of the more confusing to read through.

anyways, it's 3pm and i havn't eaten since 7am so i'm going to go out and get myself something. back in a bit.

[ntndeacon]

Oh DT. I did not scan you. I scanned Chief and ITC. (I wanted that clarified. I do think you meant that there was one total known scan of you.)

However nothing that we have seen so far has given me any indication that you are a student. I will grant that the case against you is not as strong as the case against both ITC and st. cronin. But do not suppose there is no case against you. After we lynch ITC and st cronin you are next in my site to validate as a wolf. and then we will have clensed our beloved school.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Oh DT. I did not scan you. I scanned Chief and ITC. (I wanted that clarified. I do think you meant that there was one total known scan of you.)

However nothing that we have seen so far has given me any indication that you are a student. I will grant that the case against you is not as strong as the case against both ITC and st. cronin. But do not suppose there is no case against you. After we lynch ITC and st cronin you are next in my site to validate as a wolf. and then we will have clensed our beloved school.

nothing that you've seen so far? well i think that certainly puts you at odds with multiple other people

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE IMTHECREW

numbers can't lie all the time

[st.cronin]

I'll just say it again, I am not a wolf. I am either the victim of random.org, or the wolves are manipulating this in some way.

I have the following as wolves: Chief Rum, Alan T, and one of either DaddyTorgo or hoopsguy.

Looking forward to getting lynched, though its likely game over for the village when that happens. I love proving Alan wrong.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'll just say it again, I am not a wolf. I am either the victim of random.org, or the wolves are manipulating this in some way.

I have the following as wolves: Chief Rum, Alan T, and one of either DaddyTorgo or hoopsguy.

Looking forward to getting lynched, though its likely game over for the village when that happens. I love proving Alan wrong.

ITC is much more likely to be lynched tonight than you

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

ITC is much more likely to be lynched tonight than you

I think he will come up good, too. People have forgotten what happened with Lathum yesterday.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, I haven't forgotten it at all. But what are you suggesting that we do? There are only three wolves out there, with (I hope at this point) limited ability to communicate with each other.

I'm willing to listen to alternate strategies than voting for ITC or you, despite both of you having multiple people suggesting you are wolves. But I would like to hear a clearly defined argument of where you think is the right direction to look. Feel free to cite an earlier post if I'm asking you to be redundant.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I love proving Alan wrong.

QFT

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

QFT

Yeah, except you two are on different teams, but who cares. you all have made up your mind. Do whatever you want. I'll stop trying to provide analysis in these games and will just do what others do and say nothing all game. I'll live longer, and you all will enjoy me being around more.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think he will come up good, too. People have forgotten what happened with Lathum yesterday.

we've had 3 people either view ITC as a wolf, or two people view him as bad and one wolf pile on, or (most unlikely) two wolves pile onto 1 person viewing him as bad.

it's simple statistics from there. i'd probably try to make it too complicated, but isn't it something like 3 / 2! or something, or a combination?

i don't remember my statistics all that well, as that was well...senior year of HS so like...a decade ago (goddamm).

but basically if all three people were good who viewed ITC, the chances of them all getting the wrong answer are 1.56%. If two of the three are good, the chances of them both getting the wrong answer are 6.25%. And obviously if only 1 is good, the chances then are 25% (25%x25%x25%, 25%x25%, and then 25%).

So we can be somewhere between 75-98.44% certain that ITC is a bad guy. Because I don't think we'd have two wolves piling onto ITC, we are likely looking at a 93.75% chance ITC is a wolf.

If I just did a really horrible stupid job with the math, someone feel free to laugh at me. It's been a decade since I really did much math.

[DaddyTorgo]

seriously. if i did something stupid with the math, let me know. i wasn't trying to mislead or anything. but my math skills frankly...suck these days.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Yeah, except you two are on different teams, but who cares. you all have made up your mind. Do whatever you want. I'll stop trying to provide analysis in these games and will just do what others do and say nothing all game. I'll live longer, and you all will enjoy me being around more.

easy slugger, it was just a joke...

[hoopsguy]

Dodgerchick, please send Alan a smiley - looks like he needs one.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Dodgerchick, please send Alan a smiley - looks like he needs one.

Alan's been possesed by Ardent

or schmidty

or dodgerchick

or golden eagle

or lathum

or blade

did I insult enough people yet?

[Alan T]

No, Im just not having a good day. First day without any help at all since baby has been born, been busy with work, baby wouldnt sleep even for a nap at all today, been crying most of the day, won't drink much formula, and coming here as an escape to have fun isn't working and Im not having fun.

If I drunk alcohol, today would be a day for it.

I don't know if cronin is a wolf, I don't know who is a wolf, and I feel like its me vs 6 wolves right now. I would watch tv but cant hear it over the baby crying, would try to do work but cant because she constantly needs to be held. Maybe I should just go out for a walk.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

No, Im just not having a good day. First day without any help at all since baby has been born, been busy with work, baby wouldnt sleep even for a nap at all today, been crying most of the day, won't drink much formula, and coming here as an escape to have fun isn't working and Im not having fun.

If I drunk alcohol, today would be a day for it.

I don't know if cronin is a wolf, I don't know who is a wolf, and I feel like its me vs 6 wolves right now. I would watch tv but cant hear it over the baby crying, would try to do work but cant because she constantly needs to be held. Maybe I should just go out for a walk.

sorry to hear bud, it's been a tough couple of months for you. I didn't mean anything personal.

take that walk, walk to the bar

[DaddyTorgo]

alan...don't let the angst get to you. imho we are actually playing a good game. it's going to be tough cuz small games usually are, and this one has that slick rule-twist, but I wouldn't worry bout it being you vs. the wolves...I think there's few more of us there in your army

[DaddyTorgo]

dol

sorry to hear bout your rough day...but as a silver lining you have the baby hmm? that's pretty damm cute...when not crying n crapping

[path12]

Current vote totals:

ImTheCrew (4) -- Chief Rum (240), hoopsguy (247), ntndeacon (249), DaddyTorgo (254)

Alan T (1) -- st.cronin (193)

Not voted: Alan T, ImTheCrew

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

we've had 3 people either view ITC as a wolf, or two people view him as bad and one wolf pile on, or (most unlikely) two wolves pile onto 1 person viewing him as bad.

Not sure why that seems so outrageous. If there are three wolves, all they have to do is lynch a villager today, and its game over. Today is the day when they would pull a stunt like that.

[ImTheCrew]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Not sure why that seems so outrageous. If there are three wolves, all they have to do is lynch a villager today, and its game over. Today is the day when they would pull a stunt like that.

im a student i gurantee you that and if you vote me, the game is virtually over

Vote Alan T

[DaddyTorgo]

hey guys. my afternoon after work ended up all jammed up. just finished dinner two mins ago. out to grab coffee then will catch up on all things since 5.

[Alan T]

I like how all of the wolves are ganging up on me.

Vote St.cronin

[path12]

Deadline. Writeup coming.

[path12]

Final vote totals:

ImTheCrew (4) -- Chief Rum (240), hoopsguy (247), ntndeacon (249), DaddyTorgo (254)

Alan T (2) -- st.cronin (193), ImTheCrew (272)

st.cronin (1) -- Alan T (274)


st.cronin stared at the bloody mess that was RendeR. "Hmm. Y'know, I don't really remember this being in the brochure." Alan glared at him. "That's BS. You probably did it, wolfie boy.....look at this scan!". He and cronin started shoving each other, "You're a wolf!" "No, YOU are!" "I'm rubber you're glue!".

The rest of the class paid no attention. Chief spoke up. "I think ImTheCrew is bad." ntndeacon agreed, "I scanned him, he's bad all right. Where is he, anyway?".

hoopsguy came in the room with a pained expression. "Just got off the phone with Mr. Felix. Man, he is not happy. He's got WizardNewsNetwork following him around and he kept yelling something about transcript records and fire or shredding or something. We need to get one of these wolves or we're gonna flunk." DaddyTorgo said, "I'm probably gonna flunk anyway. I didn't know we needed math to do this crap."

Finally the votes were tallied. ImTheCrew wandered in with a piece of chicken. "Hey, I found some food in the cafe-- Um, why are you all looking at me like that? He is advanced upon and quickly killed. You watch in amazement as he changes before your eyes. The class shouts in unison, "YESSSSS!!!!".

IMTHECREW WAS A WOLF.

NIGHT 2 IS UNDERWAY. ACTIONS DUE BY 9AM TOMORROW MORNING.

[hoopsguy]

We basically need to hold serve the rest of the way, barring one wolf taking out the other. But I'm guessing we can't count on that.

In fact, starting tomorrow I think it makes sense to assume that the wolves are communicating with each other.

So, anyone want to put in some planning for scans for tonight? Having me scan the wolf target (RendeR) seemed to help, as I didn't muddle the waters today

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

We basically need to hold serve the rest of the way, barring one wolf taking out the other. But I'm guessing we can't count on that.

In fact, starting tomorrow I think it makes sense to assume that the wolves are communicating with each other.

So, anyone want to put in some planning for scans for tonight? Having me scan the wolf target (RendeR) seemed to help, as I didn't muddle the waters today

Well cronin already said he plans on scanning me tommorrow, and Im guessing he'll say Im a wolf.

Right now I think we have only St.cronin and ntndeacon left alive that people have said is a wolf. I think we need to focus 2 people scanning each of them, then the rest can scan me, or whoever else you want. Im pretty sure those two are our wolves, but they'll likely try to muddy the waters tommorrow and Im guessing it will be with me. So I would appreciate some people other than a likely wolf (cronin) scan me as well for backup.

I already scanned cronin, so plan on scanning ntn tonight.

[DaddyTorgo]

okay...so who's left in the game?

assuming cronin scans alan and alan scans ntn

we have who left

ntn
hoops
DT
chief rum

out of those 4 of us do we want to have 1 each scan ntn+cronin and 2 scan alan? or double-up on one of the wolf-candidates? or just have one more person scan alan so we can get more scans on cronin+ntn?
any thoughts guys?

[DaddyTorgo]

thoughts hoopie?

[hoopsguy]

Going to take a quick look at the scans so far, in light of Crew = wolf, and see where we go from there. I actually have a little time here for thinking this through ...

[hoopsguy]

OK, the early vote had moved over to Cronin before both Chief Rum and NTN came out saying that ImTheCrew was a wolf. This statement has been proven true.

So, the question is would one of them as a wolf have knowledge on Cronin but not on ITC and this seemed like an opportunity to create some doubt? This seems most likely with NTN, who was the tipping point. Chief tied it 2-2, and it was not clear what NTN would say (or even that he would scan ITC, as he had suggested he would scan "another candidate" - not Cronin - in Post #179).

So I think Alan is probably on the right track here in terms of focusing on Cronin and NTN.

[DaddyTorgo]

2 scans on ntn and one on cronin and one on alan?

or 2 on cronin, 1 on ntn and one on alan?

I would presume you would advocate for the former in light of what you said about ntn, right?

[Lathum]

I hate to say I told you so

[hoopsguy]

Remaining players:

Hoopsguy:
Viewed as good by Alan (D1)
Bad view on Lathum (D1)

DaddyTorgo:
Viewed as good by Cronin (D1)
Viewed as good by DaddyTorgo (D2)
Bogus view on Lathum (D1)
Says NTN is bad (D2)

St. Cronin:
Viewed as bad by RendeR (D1)
Viewed as bad by AlanT (D2)
Says DT (D1) and NTN (D2) are good

AlanT:
Viewed as good by Chief Rum (Day 1)
Says Hoops is good (D1) and Cronin is bad (D2)

Chief Rum:
Viewed as good by NTN (Day 1)
Says Alan is good (D1)
Good view on ITC (D2) - validated RendeR's view from Day 1, first to do so

NTN:
Viewed as bad by DaddyT (Day 2)
Viewed as good by Cronin (Day 2)
Says Chief is good (D1)
Good view on ITC (D2) - validated Chief's Day 2 view, helped decide between ITC and Cronin on D2

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I hate to say I told you so

No you don't

[hoopsguy]

DaddyTorgo:
Viewed as good by Cronin (D1)
Viewed as good by DaddyTorgo (D2)
Bogus view on Lathum (D1)
Says NTN is bad (D2)

Viewed as good by ITC (D2)

[hoopsguy]

Posting is hard - need edit button.

That should read:
Viewed as good by ITC (D2)

Instead of:
Viewed as good by DaddyTorgo (D2)

[hoopsguy]

If I'm getting to call out actions for tonight I would advocate two scans on Cronin, one on NTN, one on DaddyTorgo (helps validate/condemn NTN), and one on whoever else people think should be scoped out (me included, obviously).

I won't put the scan on DT, given the Day 1 events where we were the two who had bad scans on Lathum. So I'll put my scan on Cronin and see if someone jumps on behind me.

[DaddyTorgo]

lol

[DaddyTorgo]

I think we only have 4 scans hoops, that's the problem. you+me+CR

because alan's already said who he was going to scan, and cronin has already said he's going to scan alan

[DaddyTorgo]

hoops...i'd rather you scanned NTN instead of cronin. Because i've already scanned NTN. I'll gladly scan him again, but I don't want to scan cronin AGAIN with you and link us up again.

You feel good enough about alan that you don't think we need to scan him?

[DaddyTorgo]

in my 4 scans I mean to say "you+me+cr+ntn (as much as we trust/don't trust him)"

[Alan T]

One of you really need to scan me. I mean really.

I would have:

Cronin scans me
I scan ntn
Hoops scans ntn
Daddy scans Alan
Chief scans cronin
Ntn scans chief

[Alan T]

Reasoning for that is ntn and cronin are tied, so they cant scan each other. DT and hoops have some tie so cant scan each other. Chief and I have a tie so cant scan each other. Hoops and I have a tie so cant scan each other.

[hoopsguy]

DT, Alan is grabbing the scan on NTN so we should have the remaining scans.

Proposed - partially based on what is already in:
Hoops - Cronin
Cronin - Alan
Alan - NTN
Rum - DT
DT - ??? (pick me, pick Alan, or whoever you want as I wanted one choice to be randomized)
NTN - Cronin


Are there any problems with these choices? I don't believe it represents anyone having to re-scan someone they have already viewed. It leaves Rum or me short on views through the first three days since we each have only one so far and nothing listed here. But there are a shortage of verified good views out there so far, so any plan is going to have some shortcomings.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, do you think it is more of a priority to have two scans on NTN compared to Cronin?

[DaddyTorgo]

no, I havn't grabbed the scan on ntn yet. I am open to whatever we decide...if we wanna go alan's way that's fine

[RendeR]

This is HI-LARY-ous

[hoopsguy]

RendeR, you may be the first player ever in FOFC werewolf history to be a seer in his first two games