Who wins House Speaker?

[Jas_lov]

Jordan lost 3 more votes in round 3. 25 against.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

The GOP's having a civil war, and the situation in the House is just the currently most visible battlefield (the "debates" were this also, but not as bad). Smart of the Democrats to see if they can drive a wedge between the factions a little bit more.

I read somewhere (maybe linked from here?), that the way to look at this is that there are essentially two Republican parties that exist in parallel right now. You have the traditional congressional members and the presidential candidates who are attempting to do things the traditional way (allow some level of consensus, follow rules and laws, doing the presidential nomination process as designed) and then you have Trump and his wannabe mini-mes, who think pretty much solely in concrete terms and just do whatever they want without worrying about consequences (and then are aggrieved when there are typical consequences).

[Edward64]

Wonder what all those individual groups are talking about. Wish they transmitted in 4k and I could read lips

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I read somewhere (maybe linked from here?), that the way to look at this is that there are essentially two Republican parties that exist in parallel right now. You have the traditional congressional members and the presidential candidates who are attempting to do things the traditional way (allow some level of consensus, follow rules and laws, doing the presidential nomination process as designed) and then you have Trump and his wannabe mini-mes, who think pretty much solely in concrete terms and just do whatever they want without worrying about consequences (and then are aggrieved when there are typical consequences).

I was reading a GOP strategist's opinion right after the McCarthy ouster and he was speculating that it could be the actual beginning of a Republican/MAGA split. I thought it was pretty ridiculous that, of all things, this would be the move where the line in the sand is drawn. It's still very unlikely, but it does seem to be the point where some of the GOP have grown a spine.

[miked]

Let's put this in perspective, it was essentially around 10% of their conference. There is no split, most of them who hated Jordan still fell in line

[Ghost Econ]

I think we'd have to wait for another Trump loss before a Republican Martin Luther nails his feces to the door, instigating a schism.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

I think we'd have to wait for another Trump loss before a Republican Martin Luther nails his feces to the door, instigating a schism.

It will take the rank and file to give up on Trump and his message, and I really don't know if another defeat will do it. If anything his support seems to feed off defeats. They just get angrier and more dangerous.


Edit: You have to remember in their minds Trump has never lost. They right now are saying that Jordan has not lost. It is all being stolen from them by the "deep state." That is how they justify any criminal enterprise that gets them more power. Violence is the next step.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

I think we'd have to wait for another Trump loss before a Republican Martin Luther nails his feces to the door, instigating a schism.

I thought that said "faces". Ew

[GrantDawg]

The 8 that voted to remove McCarthy is now saying they are willing to take punishment up to removal from the caucus if the GOP will just elect Jim Jordan speaker.

[CrimsonFox]

Don Bacon voted for McHenry
Vern Buchanan for Donalds
Ken Buck for Emmer
Lori Chavez-DeRemer for McHenry
Anthony D’Esposito for Zeldin
Mario Diaz-Balart for Scalise
Jake Ellzey for Garcia
Ferguson for Scalise
Brian Fitzpatrick for McHenry (new vote against Jordan)
Andrew Garbarino for Zeldin
Carlos Gimenez for McCarthy
Tony Gonzales for Scalise
Kay Granger for Scalise
John James for Donalds
Thomas Kean for McCarthy (new vote against Jordan)
Mike Kelly of Pennsylvania for Scalise
Jennifer Kiggans for McHenry
Nick LaLota for Zeldin
Mike Lawler for McHenry
Mariannette Miller-Meeks for McHenry
Marcus Molinaro for Zeldin (new vote against Jordan)
John Rutherford for Scalise
Michael Simpson for Scalise
Pete Stauber for Westerman
Steve Womack for Scalise

[GrantDawg]

Lol:

House Republicans are pumping white noise outside their closed door meeting.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 20, 2023

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The 8 that voted to remove McCarthy is now saying they are willing to take punishment up to removal from the caucus if the GOP will just elect Jim Jordan speaker.

Bank robbers should try that.

"If you let me keep the money, I will accept a formal censure"

[GrantDawg]

I still fear Jordan is going to find a way to slip in. I don't trust Republicans backbone to stand up to their right-wing nuts. They depend on too many right-wing nuts to get elected. There is no way to overstate how dangerous it would be to have Jim Jordan as speaker when they go to certify the election in 2024. It is a recipe for a Constitutional Crisis. There is zero chance he would allow the House to certify an election win for Biden.

[Ksyrup]

I hope they keep voting all day and night and some GOP members leave for the weekend and they accidentally end up electing Jeffries as Speaker.

[Ksyrup]

If I'm reading right, I think Jordan just lost a secret ballot behind closed doors which means he's out. Time to start over.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I still fear Jordan is going to find a way to slip in. I don't trust Republicans backbone to stand up to their right-wing nuts. They depend on too many right-wing nuts to get elected. There is no way to overstate how dangerous it would be to have Jim Jordan as speaker when they go to certify the election in 2024. It is a recipe for a Constitutional Crisis. There is zero chance he would allow the House to certify an election win for Biden.

The new certification laws don't give him much power there. It requires 1/5 of both chambers to object to even trigger a vote. So every republican in the house could object but it would still take 20 senators to go along with it.

[kingfc22]

Oh no. You lose again!

[Atocep]

I want to see McCarthy run again just for the lols

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

If I'm reading right, I think Jordan just lost a secret ballot behind closed doors which means he's out. Time to start over.

Yeah they had to have a secret ballot to see whether the rank and file wanted to keep him as Speaker Designate, and they did not. So last I saw they adjourned for the weekend.



someone above mentioned that the rank and file R's were starting to break more from the more radical R's. I think in some ways this is true-because they and their families are now really for the first time being affected by what they did on Jan 6 and after-they can see what's happening in court to Trump and his coup conspirators, they themselves are being called traitors by their constituents and other members of Congress. None of those voting to not certify the 2020 election have ever had any real negative thing happen-yes a few lost re-election, but none of them have being sanctioned, arrested for obstructing justice, having to follow a legal subpoena from the Jan 6 commission, etc. If more and more of the people in the atlanta case flip and we get closer and closer to Trump himself being on trial, I think and hope we will see more of this break from the radical Right.

[CrimsonFox]

You put your right Gym in, you put your right gym out and you shake it all about

[CrimsonFox]

Gym is out

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I want to see McCarthy run again just for the lols

Yeah because he hasn't been humiliated enough yet.

[CrimsonFox]

it's hilarious that I think if mccarthy WERE to run he'd get back in.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

You put your right Gym in, you put your right gym out and you shake it all about

+1 to you, not seen that joke out there yet

[CrimsonFox]

Austin Scott:
Good:
Affirmed certification of all states' electoral college votes
Made statements that supported the integrity of American democracy

Bad:
Signed Texas amicus brief
Voted against impeachment or conviction of Donald Trump for inciting an insurrection
Voted against creating an independent commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack
Voted against holding Steve Bannon in contempt of Congress

from Rep. Austin Scott - Republican Accountability


Kevin Hern

All bad:

Signed Texas amicus brief
Objected to certification of electoral college votes in one or more states
Made no public statements about the election, or was evasive
Voted against impeachment or conviction of Donald Trump for inciting an insurrection
Voted against creating an independent commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack
Voted against holding Steve Bannon in contempt of Congress

Rep. Kevin Hern - Republican Accountability

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The new certification laws don't give him much power there. It requires 1/5 of both chambers to object to even trigger a vote. So every republican in the house could object but it would still take 20 senators to go along with it.

Do you really think Jordan will follow rules or laws? The Speaker has a lot of power. Playing game to not even allow a vote is way more likely. Playing delay tactics to try to run out the certification clock.

[CrimsonFox]

lolol

Jordan lost an internal secret ballot vote to determine whether he should remain as the nominee by a vote of 112-86

[Thomkal]

Looks like Tom Emmer (3rd in line on Republican leadership) is now going to try to run for Speaker,

[GrantDawg]

What I find interesting about Austin Scott is that I can throw a rock and hit his district and yet I have never heard of him.

[RainMaker]

They are moving toward the boring candidates which is probably the smart move.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Looks like Tom Emmer (3rd in line on Republican leadership) is now going to try to run for Speaker,

He's pretty solidly to the right but isn't MAGA and doesn't support Trump. Not sure what his stance is on the budget, but he seems to check other dem boxes.

Still no reason whatsoever for dems to support a GOP candidate while they're out there looking like jackasses.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Atocep

He's pretty solidly to the right but isn't MAGA and doesn't support Trump. Not sure what his stance is on the budget, but he seems to check other dem boxes.

Still no reason whatsoever for dems to support a GOP candidate while they're out there looking like jackasses.

He voted for the last CR, as did Austin Scott.

[Ghost Econ]

I watched Sexy Beasts yesterday and now I imaging Jim Jordan is just Ben Kingsley's gangster character.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

I watched Sexy Beasts yesterday and now I imaging Jim Jordan is just Ben Kingsley's gangster character.

This should highlight how unbelievably bad Jim Jordan is as a politician. His district could elect, quite literally, anyone else and get more done. I'm sure he'll easily win his primary though.

[RainMaker]

Emmer is a weird Ron Paul guy if I remember correctly.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

lolol

Jordan lost an internal secret ballot vote to determine whether he should remain as the nominee by a vote of 112-86

That's 61 votes that came out of the woods with a secret ballot. Yeah, stiff headwinds.

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

What I find interesting about Austin Scott is that I can throw a rock and hit his district and yet I have never heard of him.

Who cares. Pork for Georgia is pork for Georgia!

[SirFozzie]

Apparently Jordan had planned the secret ballot as a show of strength "See, they support me, there's no reason for you to continue to oppose me", and was not happy to see that he had lost by 30 or so votes.

Reminds me of the old saying about never asking a question you might not like the answer to!

[GrantDawg]

It is the delusion of the hardliners. They believe that the people voting against Jordan was being performative and they really qould prefer Jordan as Speaker. It is just like they believe Trump is the most popular man in America and it is only lies by CNN that say he is not.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Ksyrup]

I don't believe they believe that at all. I believe they are just like Trump - they know that if they keep saying the same things and telling the same lies over and over, they become truth by brute force of will. Now, the supporters who have bought into all this BS - absolutely. Which is why so many legislators who would otherwise be happy going back to "normal" politics won't call it out publicly.

[GrantDawg]

You just read Jordan believed he would win the secret ballot, right? It is just like Gaetz offer to take sanctions if they just put Jordan in, believing that was the only thing that people were objecting about Jordan. It is not just they say things often enough that they make others believe it. They have said it often enough that some of them actually believe it. People like MTG aren't pretending to be stupid. They are ACTUALLY stupid.

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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

That's 61 votes that came out of the woods with a secret ballot. Yeah, stiff headwinds.

Sorry, that's 88 votes that came out of the woods.


Trump has been telling his allies he does not support Emmer. I'm okay with that, I'm rooting for McHenry (and his bowtie).

Trump tells allies he doesn’t support Tom Emmer’s speaker bid - POLITICO

Former President Donald Trump privately conveyed to allies on Friday he does not back House Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s bid for speaker, throwing another wrench into an already chaotic process to find the next person to hold the gavel.

[Ksyrup]

He believed that because they thought they could force him into a win because enough people would prefer any Speaker to the embarrassment of public in-fighting. Jordan knows why people object to him. He just thought he could bully his way through it. When the bullying tactics didn't work, he just pretended it was business as usual hoping he would win the secret ballot once again, prove he wasnt going anywhere and wear them down to cave in if he was the only alternative. Enough people eventually called his bluff and were unwilling to keep up the charade of pretending he might win.

It was all orchestrated on the opponents side, beautifully. Rather than all, say, 50 hard no's voting against him on the first vote and then allowing Jordan to control the narrative for each successive vote that he was "gaining momentum" when the no's went to 48, then 45, then 43, etc., they just spread them out, each taking turns to vote yes or no to ensure his "No" vote total increased with each vote. It was beautifully played and gave him no way to continue. That group eventually just said, "It's Friday, you're finished, well start from scratch next week. Goodbye."

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Apparently Jordan had planned the secret ballot as a show of strength "See, they support me, there's no reason for you to continue to oppose me", and was not happy to see that he had lost by 30 or so votes.

Reminds me of the old saying about never asking a question you might not like the answer to!

Yeah with that America wants me to be their leader press conference before the vote, pretty clear he was insane as the rest of the Far-righters

[Toddzilla]

So a party rooted in the principle of tearing down government and trampling the constitution turns out to be unable to govern.

I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you.

[Senator]

I know she’s a Rino but I am surprised Kay Granger hasn’t pulled her chits in to try and get it. Been there a long time, been on powerful committees, and has always been ambitious.

[flere-imsaho]

Win and you spend your whole time trying to placate the loonies like Gaetz & Boebert while getting nothing done. Lose and you just look like another loser.

I can understand why anyone who's trying to make a career out of this isn't coming forward, the upside/downside calculation says no.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Win and you spend your whole time trying to placate the loonies like Gaetz & Boebert while getting nothing done. Lose and you just look like another loser.

I can understand why anyone who's trying to make a career out of this isn't coming forward, the upside/downside calculation says no.

I think the people who are running probably see this as their high-water mark for their career. They may have never really dreamed that would ever reach that high and this will be their only opportunity. They may flame out in the end, but they will always be able to say they had been Speaker of the House.

[Swaggs]

Good points. Seeing what happened to Paul Ryan’s once promising career (he’s still only 53 years old) has to make folks with serious ambition second guess the timing and wait out the lunacy.

[GrantDawg]

Your official list:

Today at noon was the deadline for announced candidates for Speaker.

Official Announced Candidates to the House Republican Conference include:

Jack Bergman (MI)
Byron Donalds (FL)
Tom Emmer (MN)
Kevin Hern (OK)
Mike Johnson (LA)
Dan Meuser (PA)
Gary Palmer (AL)
Austin Scott…

— Rep. Elise Stefanik (@RepStefanik) October 22, 2023

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Your official list:

Emmer & Scott are the only 2 that did not deny the election so those are my preferred choices. But Scott > Emmer.

And McHenry > Scott > Emmer.