The Biden Presidency - 2020

[Vegas Vic]

The crisis might be averted. The Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, just warned the Taliban to protect the human rights of its citizens, especially the girls and women. He also instructed them not to enable terrorist groups to organize and train.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

The crisis might be averted. The Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, just warned the Taliban to protect the human rights of its citizens, especially the girls and women. He also instructed them not to enable terrorist groups to organize and train.

No one cares Vic.

[PilotMan]

There are two things about this. First, the shock and dismay Americans are having because they feel like they win every time and should always win, and because this doesn't feel like winning, but they can't understand why. The why part should be the easiest thing to understand if you've even paid any passing interest in the region. It's been like this since Bush was in power and it was never going to change. So many Americans are clutching their pearls over this and pointing fingers instead of really trying to understand what was going on. It's not like the military didn't try, it's not like countless American leaders (not just presidents, but leaders at every level) tried to come up with a solution that would work, but the failure was the constant destabilization of the general populace by the outside forces of the Taliban and their supporters whether it was solely Pakistan or whether or not Russia or another foreign agent was involved.

Second, I think the best way to understand it is that unless you feel like the US should have stayed there forever, and turned the country into a puppet state that at some point the end had to come. The country then turned to the Taliban and gave it away. Literally, gave it away. So the country and it's populace gets exactly what it wants. It wants this, it has this, and don't cry for it, and don't cry for the corruption that lead to it, and don't cry for the failures of the Afghan government. They have what they want. It is what it is, and life moves on.

[Flasch186]

I just heard from a friend who in conversation with a right-winger that is a contractor for the military about Afghanistan and the right-winger said, "Biden's a traitor." So that's how that wing is going to see this.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

I just heard from a friend who in conversation with a right-winger that is a contractor for the military about Afghanistan and the right-winger said, "Biden's a traitor." So that's how that wing is going to see this.

This is unfortunate.

There are some legitimate questions that need to be answered on the logistics of the withdrawal; specifically why weren't the civilians evacuated before any military personnel, and why was so much equipment abandoned in place (instead of removing or destroying it).

[GrantDawg]

It feels like they assessed the danger of the between time as equipment and personnel being pulled being too high. TheUS troops were always going to be at thier most vulnerable once the pull out started. They must have decide speed was more important than being thorough.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[JPhillips]

I remember reading the estimate that it would take 18 months for the Taliban to take over. Last Monday it was reported that the range was one to three months. It took less than a week.

It's damned near impossible to make good decisions when the information is so flawed.

[sterlingice]

I'm shocked that so many people that fail to even attempt to understand the complexities of a situation in so many avenues of life and were in favor of this solution, especially when their idealogue of choice was behind it, would completely flip-flop. /s

We all know it's in the process of happening but it's amazing how quickly and efficiently this will go/is going from an 80/20 issue to a 50/50 issue just because it's a chance to spike a political football. But, hey, we'll be "educated" with variations of the same 3 talking points, ad nauseam, over the next month and through election time.

SI

[kingfc22]

Would be great if people were this pissed about checks notes 621 thousand dead Americans due to a pandemic that we are still dealing with. But yes, let’s have everyone circle jerk and grand stand about a country on the other side of the globe that we should have never been involved with in the first place.

[PilotMan]

Those people were probably sick and going to die anyway, they are completely irrelevant to the universe.

trump made a big deal, only a month ago, that he got the troops out of Afghanistan and brought them home and Biden couldn't stop it, even though he wanted to...........how does that message sound now?

It certainly appears that the Taliban, after the agreement for the US to leave was signed in Feb 2020, went around to every single major leader in the provinces and basically said, we're coming, choose sides, here's some money, we get what we want when the time comes....and what was anyone else going to do? Die for America when they were leaving and taking all the support with them? Not in the country where "I'm out for me and mine" is the national motto which is should be there given how much money has been pissed away with the corruption there. They basically have "fear will keep the other systems in line; fear of this battlestation" in charge now, and that's how it will be for the rest of my lifetime I'm guessing.

[wustin]

The Taliban were able to fight back in the Gulf War because they had AKs leftover from the Soviets. It's standard practice to leave your crap and get out of there. It's a waste of money and time trying to disarm everything and everyone.

Also who the fuck cares about Afghanistan. It's been one big sunken cost, pull out, take the loss, move on.

As someone who works in the aviation business, those choppers and humvees they've collected are useless. I doubt they have enough qualified manpower to perform inspection and maintenance let alone having the right tools for repair.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by wustin

The Taliban were able to fight back in the Gulf War because they had AKs leftover from the Soviets.

Much of the new equipment they've been using over the past decade was actually purchased from Russia, including surface-to-air missiles. They've also purchased a substantial portion of their modern weaponry from Iran.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by wustin

The Taliban were able to fight back in the Gulf War because they had AKs leftover from the Soviets.

The Taliban fought in the Gulf War?

[molson]

I was keeping an eye on some of the Facebook and twitter accounts of some of the nice hotels in Kabul. Just to try to get a glimpse of what life is like, how it changes when something like this happens. Do you still get up and go to work, do you stay home for a few days to see what happens, do you make a mad dash to the airport and climb on a plane as it's taking off? If you work in a government agency, do you show up for work and hope there's some kind of transition? Do you go to your office and wait, or do you try to make contact with the Taliban? (I had similar thoughts when I wondered what would have happened if the capital mob killed Pence and the Dems in Congress - kind of petty but real-life things - would my federal cases I work on still be on the same briefing schedules or is everything suspended indefinitely, would there a period of more direct federal control over states, or would the default be state independence and direct party control over everything?)

One of the hotels had a social media post yesterday about some of the dinner specials it had, and said something like, "in the end, isn't good food the thing that keeps us going"? (or something like that). All those social media accounts are down today, though the hotel websites are still up. I wonder if everyone just made a run for it, if or there was an easy switch for the regime to flip to shut off internet access. The good hotels were good because they had security - do those forces stand down, report to duty with the Taliban, stay in place until someone tells them otherwise, etc.? And how long could you hold out in one of the rooms, with maybe access to a restaurant that may or may not be informally serving food?

I mentioned above about people traveling to these kinds of places - I have read some books about that from the perspective of the well-trained and experienced-type travelers who are do this all the time and are there for private security assignments, journalism, or just the thrill. It always strikes me how relatively normal things can stay, at least in part. Like in a complete war zone you're still going to have pockets of normalcy - shopping, coffee shops, whatever. It takes a lot for people to just abandon the mundane and routine and the simple commerce, and there is just so many more people participating in society than military or government personnel trying to change it immediately.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

The Taliban fought in the Gulf War?

It was right after the German's bombed Pearl Harbor.

[Brian Swartz]

Hey, if we could defend airports during the Revolutionary War, the Taliban could fight during the Gulf War.

Oh ... wrong president, oops.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

I just heard from a friend who in conversation with a right-winger that is a contractor for the military about Afghanistan and the right-winger said, "Biden's a traitor." So that's how that wing is going to see this.

I know the little fascists are either arguing in bad faith or stupid (usually both). But Trump literally said this a month ago.

“I started the process, all the troops are coming home, they (Biden) couldn’t stop the process. 21 years is enough. They (Biden) couldn’t stop the process, they (Biden) wanted to but couldn’t stop the process.”

- Trump, 1 month ago pic.twitter.com/9UPPbseyiI

— david nussbaum (@theNuzzy) August 15, 2021

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

There are two things about this. First, the shock and dismay Americans are having because they feel like they win every time and should always win, and because this doesn't feel like winning, but they can't understand why. The why part should be the easiest thing to understand if you've even paid any passing interest in the region. It's been like this since Bush was in power and it was never going to change. So many Americans are clutching their pearls over this and pointing fingers instead of really trying to understand what was going on. It's not like the military didn't try, it's not like countless American leaders (not just presidents, but leaders at every level) tried to come up with a solution that would work, but the failure was the constant destabilization of the general populace by the outside forces of the Taliban and their supporters whether it was solely Pakistan or whether or not Russia or another foreign agent was involved.

Second, I think the best way to understand it is that unless you feel like the US should have stayed there forever, and turned the country into a puppet state that at some point the end had to come. The country then turned to the Taliban and gave it away. Literally, gave it away. So the country and it's populace gets exactly what it wants. It wants this, it has this, and don't cry for it, and don't cry for the corruption that lead to it, and don't cry for the failures of the Afghan government. They have what they want. It is what it is, and life moves on.

1) I would say part of the shock and dismay can be blamed on the education system and our media. We were taught throughout life that America kicked everyone's ass. Heck, I remember learning WW2 history and barely hearing about the Russians involvement. It was just "America came in and kicked everyone's ass". And the media glorified everything they did.

So there is this idealized version of the military from the public. When in reality, our military has been a comical failure since World War 2. An immensely funded part of our government that is routinely dismantled by lesser foes. The one lesson we should be getting out of this is "why are we spending so much money on such a poor military?".

2) This is a flawed understanding of what happened. We stormed into the country for revenge on a foe who really had nothing to do with 9/11. Murdered countless innocent civilians, destroyed livelihoods, and treated everyone like a criminal.

Many people in the country don't support the Taliban. But they have no other choice. The United States proved to be just as vicious to them and woefully incompetent. Plus they were never going to be there for the long haul.

I just hate this idea that it's their fault for how things have gone. As if we swooped in and offered them freedom and those heathens chose otherwise. Our actions over the past century have led to much of what we see taking place in those countries. Not fair to blame them for it.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I'm shocked that so many people that fail to even attempt to understand the complexities of a situation in so many avenues of life and were in favor of this solution, especially when their idealogue of choice was behind it, would completely flip-flop. /s

We all know it's in the process of happening but it's amazing how quickly and efficiently this will go/is going from an 80/20 issue to a 50/50 issue just because it's a chance to spike a political football. But, hey, we'll be "educated" with variations of the same 3 talking points, ad nauseam, over the next month and through election time.

SI

I flipped on Fox News to see what they had to say and it was predictable. I know I shouldn't be surprised or disappointed but I was. They had every chance to use this as a unifier and instead are predictably crushing Biden, calling for congressional committees, etc...when they could have said, yeah, he could have done things differently, but lets remember majority of us wanted this.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by wustin

I doubt they have enough qualified manpower to perform inspection and maintenance let alone having the right tools for repair.

They don't need those skills to sell it to regimes/groups that do have that manpower for cash that they can use for other things.

We leave the shit there because now we get to place some more orders with politically connected military contractors.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

1) I would say part of the shock and dismay can be blamed on the education system and our media. We were taught throughout life that America kicked everyone's ass. Heck, I remember learning WW2 history and barely hearing about the Russians involvement. It was just "America came in and kicked everyone's ass". And the media glorified everything they did.

So there is this idealized version of the military from the public. When in reality, our military has been a comical failure since World War 2. An immensely funded part of our government that is routinely dismantled by lesser foes. The one lesson we should be getting out of this is "why are we spending so much money on such a poor military?".

2) This is a flawed understanding of what happened. We stormed into the country for revenge on a foe who really had nothing to do with 9/11. Murdered countless innocent civilians, destroyed livelihoods, and treated everyone like a criminal.

Many people in the country don't support the Taliban. But they have no other choice. The United States proved to be just as vicious to them and woefully incompetent. Plus they were never going to be there for the long haul.

I just hate this idea that it's their fault for how things have gone. As if we swooped in and offered them freedom and those heathens chose otherwise. Our actions over the past century have led to much of what we see taking place in those countries. Not fair to blame them for it.

Look I'm 45 years old. I don't think the US has won one major war in my lifetime (not counting the Cold War which they fucked up too).

Vietnam - loss
Iraq- loss
Afghanistan - loss

Panama - win?

War on Drugs - loss
War on Poverty - loss

That good ole American exceptionalism fucks up everything. We never unhinged the military industrial complex and we needed to of course exert influence in some way.

It's all been a failure. And the next generation of wars won't be large scale. We cannot nation-build especially against such an obstinate ideology unless you shatter the ideology (We bombed Japan twice to basically make the fanatics understand their emperor god wasn't going to save them.)

If we had caught and killed Hussein and then left, I'd label Iraq a win even though it was a pointless endeavor.

If we had pulled up stakes after killing Bin Laden, I'd say Afghanistan would've been a win (even though his ass was capped in Pakistan).

The lesson is if you go against us, we'll find and kill you. We'll use our unlimited resources to do so, and better yet, we won't disrupt the current governance in the area, we'll let them play leader. When you associate them all together, you get this resistance, but if you zero in on your targets and do so, I believe you'll find more success.

Anything else is a waste of time, money, integrity and lives.

[cuervo72]

Unless you are physically willing to occupy a country -- that is to say, gobble it up and make it yours (or keep it yours) -- is any war really winnable anymore?

[GrantDawg]

President Biden: American troops can not & should not be fighting a war and dying in a war that Afghan forces are not willing to fight for themselves.

— Kylie Atwood (@kylieatwood) August 16, 2021

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by molson

I was keeping an eye on some of the Facebook and twitter accounts of some of the nice hotels in Kabul. Just to try to get a glimpse of what life is like, how it changes when something like this happens. Do you still get up and go to work, do you stay home for a few days to see what happens, do you make a mad dash to the airport and climb on a plane as it's taking off? If you work in a government agency, do you show up for work and hope there's some kind of transition? Do you go to your office and wait, or do you try to make contact with the Taliban? (I had similar thoughts when I wondered what would have happened if the capital mob killed Pence and the Dems in Congress - kind of petty but real-life things - would my federal cases I work on still be on the same briefing schedules or is everything suspended indefinitely, would there a period of more direct federal control over states, or would the default be state independence and direct party control over everything?)

One of the hotels had a social media post yesterday about some of the dinner specials it had, and said something like, "in the end, isn't good food the thing that keeps us going"? (or something like that). All those social media accounts are down today, though the hotel websites are still up. I wonder if everyone just made a run for it, if or there was an easy switch for the regime to flip to shut off internet access. The good hotels were good because they had security - do those forces stand down, report to duty with the Taliban, stay in place until someone tells them otherwise, etc.? And how long could you hold out in one of the rooms, with maybe access to a restaurant that may or may not be informally serving food?

I mentioned above about people traveling to these kinds of places - I have read some books about that from the perspective of the well-trained and experienced-type travelers who are do this all the time and are there for private security assignments, journalism, or just the thrill. It always strikes me how relatively normal things can stay, at least in part. Like in a complete war zone you're still going to have pockets of normalcy - shopping, coffee shops, whatever. It takes a lot for people to just abandon the mundane and routine and the simple commerce, and there is just so many more people participating in society than military or government personnel trying to change it immediately.

I read this last year and it stuck with me - collapse isn't some thing that happens all at once to everyone, it's gradual and happens on a large scale
https://gen.medium.com/i-lived-throu...e-ba1e4b54c5fc

As someone who’s already experienced societal breakdown, here’s the truth: America has already collapsed. What you’re feeling is exactly how it feels. It’s Saturday and you’re thinking about food while the world is on fire. This is normal. This is life during collapse...

If you’re waiting for a moment where you’re like “this is it,” I’m telling you, it never comes. Nobody comes on TV and says “things are officially bad.” There’s no launch party for decay. It’s just a pileup of outrages and atrocities in between friendships and weddings and perhaps an unusual amount of alcohol.

Perhaps you’re waiting for some moment when the adrenaline kicks in and you’re fighting the virus or fascism all the time, but it’s not like that. Life is not a movie, and if it were, you’re certainly not the star. You’re just an extra. If something good or bad happens to you it’ll be random and no one will care. If you’re unlucky you’re a statistic. If you’re lucky, no one notices you at all. Collapse is just a series of ordinary days in between extraordinary bullshit, most of it happening to someone else. That’s all it is.

I don't know if he's right, but I can't deny his experience. I don't know if the roads end in similar places or just echo. But it sounds familiar, especially to the last year and a half.

SI

[JPhillips]

It brings me to a question I've thought about posting here, when is it time to leave? I don't really know what I would look out for in order to leave soon enough, but not too soon. So often it becomes obvious only when it's too late.

[Brian Swartz]

Not to be overly negative I hope, but that's not something I really look at as realistic. The US going down I expect to be part of a global decline; I don't think there are going to be many options that are a lot better. The when is hard to say, but I think anyone who is a teenager or younger today is likely to live through a difficult time globally compared to what we've gotten to used to the last several decades.

[PilotMan]

Everyone can breathe a sigh of relief. Russia has come out and said the Taliban have made Kabul safer now than it was under the West's propped up government. So woohoo?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Not to be overly negative I hope, but that's not something I really look at as realistic. The US going down I expect to be part of a global decline; I don't think there are going to be many options that are a lot better. The when is hard to say, but I think anyone who is a teenager or younger today is likely to live through a difficult time globally compared to what we've gotten to used to the last several decades.

I'm thinking more hypothetically rather than related to the USA under current conditions.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

This is unfortunate.

There are some legitimate questions that need to be answered on the logistics of the withdrawal; specifically why weren't the civilians evacuated before any military personnel, and why was so much equipment abandoned in place (instead of removing or destroying it).

RE: Civilians. Which ones the US or the Afghans?

RE: Equipment. You would probably need to be more specific about what equipment you are talking about. The reality is we leave stuff behind in every operation by design. I could see them leaving behind vehicles for example to save space for more important items like missile detection equipment for example.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

RE: Civilians. Which ones the US or the Afghans?

Mostly the thousands of Afghan citizens who served as interpreters and provided vital information and services to the U.S. government. We promised that we had their back, and now they've essentially been abandoned.

From MSNBC:

According to Human Rights Watch, the Taliban have been summarily executing Afghan civilians linked to the government — a development Secretary of State Antony Blinken meekly said was "troubling." Already, the Afghans who put their lives on the line to assist the U.S. Army over the last decades are reported to have been beheaded, a grotesque dereliction of our duty to the Afghans who foolishly believed in the U.S.

The fall of Afghanistan in 2021 is the result of years of American delusion

[Edward64]

re: US equipment left behind, now in Taliban hands.

I don't think it was US troops leaving them behind (or at least most of them). I think the equipment were to be used by the Afghani army and they left them behind as they fled.

Otherwise, you would think US troops would have tossed a couple grenades here and there to make the equipment unusable?

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Mostly the thousands of Afghan citizens who served as interpreters and provided vital information and services to the U.S. government. We promised that we had their back, and now they've essentially been abandoned.

From MSNBC:



The fall of Afghanistan in 2021 is the result of years of American delusion

Morally, I agree with you. That is the morally right thing to do. But I ask...

Would the U.S. public have been okay with bringing in thousands of Afghan citizens on to U.S. soil prior to say Saturday evening? Just because our leaders promised to that we would if shit went bad? Note that I said our leaders promised.

I am not trying to be a dick. That is a sincere question given the country's attitude to the Afghans and their plight over the last 20 years.

To be fair, evidently the administration had a plan for the interpreters and translators. I will admit that I had no clue about this program. The idea that they were still trying to vet the applicants on July 14th leads me to believe that it was not going to be a speedy one.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/14/polit...ion/index.html

[JPhillips]

I'm not sure Americans support the idea now. Carlson is going all-in on the Afghans are invading the U.S.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Morally, I agree with you. That is the morally right thing to do. But I ask...

Would the U.S. public have been okay with bringing in thousands of Afghan citizens on to U.S. soil prior to say Saturday evening? Just because our leaders promised to that we would if shit went bad? Note that I said our leaders promised.

I am not trying to be a dick. That is a sincere question given the country's attitude to the Afghans and their plight over the last 20 years.

I would be for it. Assuming they can be vetted, no problems in bring in translators etc. and their families to the US.

To be fair, evidently the administration had a plan for the interpreters and translators. I will admit that I had no clue about this program. The idea that they were still trying to vet the applicants on July 14th leads me to believe that it was not going to be a speedy one.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/14/polit...ion/index.html

I think I read somewhere that they would be put someplace outside of the US while we go through the vetting process.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

re: US equipment left behind, now in Taliban hands.

I don't think it was US troops leaving them behind (or at least most of them). I think the equipment were to be used by the Afghani army and they left them behind as they fled.

Otherwise, you would think US troops would have tossed a couple grenades here and there to make the equipment unusable?

This is also true.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/t...draws-n1273081

Note the dates on these articles. None of this is a surprise.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

Look I'm 45 years old. I don't think the US has won one major war in my lifetime (not counting the Cold War which they fucked up too).

Vietnam - loss
Iraq- loss
Afghanistan - loss

Panama - win?

War on Drugs - loss
War on Poverty - loss

Depends on what you mean by "win a war". Militarily vs Politically are somewhat 2 different things but assume you mean militarily.

Pretty sure we won the first Gulf War. If you are classifying Panama a win, go ahead and toss in Grenada. Bosnia is a win. Ironically the Afghan-Soviet war was a win. Don't know why you think we didn't win the Cold War, pretty sure we did. There is military and political aspect but what I've read is we ultimately outspent the rooskies militarily.

I think we did a pretty good job on the Tobacco wars also.

However, TBF if you count Panama and Grenada, then Lebanon and Somalia should count as losses. Libya is probably a toss-up. El Salvador also a toss-up. Arguably Falklands as we provided support to the Brits. But I wouldn't classify these as "major".

The next big war is the economic & technological war with China. That is not headed in the right direction right now but Trump did blunt it and Biden is essentially following the same policy for now. There's still hope with Biden showing more strategic thought in coalescing allies vs China.

[RainMaker]

Counting the creation of a terrorist group that has facilitated the decades long decline of this country as a win is definitely a take.

[RainMaker]

Also did laugh a bit at Grenada being added.

[Edward64]

Also toss in the "war" against ISIL in Iraq. Not sure if we had combat troops on the ground and know Iran was also assisting Iraq vs ISIL. But I'd say we provided enough air, intelligence and probably some special operators to sway the day.

Syria is probably a draw but leaning towards a loss.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I would be for it. Assuming they can be vetted, no problems in bring in translators etc. and their families to the US.



I think I read somewhere that they would be put someplace outside of the US while we go through the vetting process.

As I see it, we have (had?) to answer this question. Are we trying to protect the Afghan translators and their families or are we trying to protect ourselves?

We have already vetted the translators. They have been vetted enough to allow them to translate for us and be informants for us. That and that alone puts their lives and their lives of their families at risk. If we are more concerned with having their back, we put them on a plane and we bring them to Atlanta, New York, Tampa, Des Moines, etc. We bring them to the United States proper and we go from there. Does that put the country at risk to potential terrorist activities? Absolutely! Will the Afghans who helped us be safer than they are now? Absolutely!

If we are more concerned with protecting ourselves, then we go through a full vetting process similar to what we would do for any immigrant to the country. That seems to be what we are doing for the translators. Does that make the country safer? Absolutely! Will more of the Afghans who helped us dies before they get here? Absolutely!

I am not saying these are easy choices. Actually it does not have to be an A/B question necessarily. Maybe more of a scale with these being the extremes is more appropriate. Sure, we can place people in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and have them wait while we go through the vetting process. We can shorten the vetting process. No matter what we decide, it comes with more risk being taken by either the Afghans or us.

[albionmoonlight]

NEW: DoD officials say they urged State for weeks to act faster. State officials say they were operating based on intel that suggested they had more time. Intel officials insist they long predicted possibility of rapid Taliban takeover. Blame game begins: https://t.co/XRkeBwXvEf

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) August 17, 2021

Tale as old as time. Turns out that every government agency totally knew this would happen and was desperately trying to get every other government agency to listen.

I imagine that you had generals limping back to Rome after Punic war battles figuring out how best to point the finger at the other guy.

And, meanwhile, lots of Afghans who helped us out are going to die for it.

Sigh.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I imagine that you had generals limping back to Rome after Punic war battles figuring out how best to point the finger at the other guy.

As I recall, emperor Fabius Maximus took full responsibility for the losses, and then proceeded to rattle off a list blaming everyone except himself.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

As I recall, emperor Fabius Maximus took full responsibility for the losses, and then proceeded to rattle off a list blaming everyone except himself.

That's so human.

One of my favorite things about history is how everyone is the same as we are today, just 2,000 years earlier.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

As I recall, emperor Fabius Maximus took full responsibility for the losses, and then proceeded to rattle off a list blaming everyone except himself.

To be fair the Taliban never provided any air support during the entire Punic Wars.

[sterlingice]

George Washington's army was so much better at taking over airports

SI

[sterlingice]

I'm still processing this. It's a really complex situation and I don't know the right answer. Sure, the Fox News and contrarian crowds will carry water for the "it was a total disaster" line - never mind that they helped whip up the fervor to get us there in the first place, have been beating the drum hard to get out, and would also never let refugees within our borders to help out any people left behind. Look, we all know how this crap's going to go from them and we're just going to ignore the bad faith actors there - there's a kiddie table for a reason. Hell, if those folks want to play this game in this thread, there's something darkly amusing about lobbing pedantic points past each other about one of the world's most futile battlegrounds. I'm just not interested in engaging. But, for the adults in the room (and I use this term loosely since I'm including myself), what could we, as the US, do now or could have done in the last couple of weeks to make this different?

I mean, I just don't know the answer - this wasn't ever a war I wanted us to be in, except for the quick and dirty "kill Osama bin Laden" - which, of course, may have required boots on the ground to build up an infrastructure to accomplish it. And we can all relitigate how Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, et al, helped line their military contractor pockets. This is all true and all awful. But it's a sunk cost and it's in the past. Coming into 2021, what was the best way, out of a lot of bad options, to deal with the hand dealt? It seems to me, we're weighing our own security and the human rights violations against our own other security interests and the wellbeing of our soldiers and treasury.

In the security arena, I keep hearing that the Taliban is going to create an entire country of terrorism safe havens like it's a novel thing. I mean, c'mon, at least a half dozen countries in the region have large swaths of areas that we could describe that way. That said, this one is yet another one and one that's hard to patrol as we don't have any bases nearby. The countermeasure on that security angle is that we're also not going to be bombing the hell out of a beleaguered populace. I don't know how to balance the "we abandoned your entire" country that would push people who were sympathetic to your cause against you. Right now, I'm guessing USA approval rating is like 5% total whereas maybe it was, I dunno, 30% before but instantly creating fully-radicalized zealots every time there's a drone strike.

Of course, security is just one aspect. For instance, this administration is not directly responsible for the human rights atrocities (as they're not committing them; at least I don't think Blackwater is over there right now), but they definitely shoulder some chunk of the blame. That's part of the "best of a lot of bad options". This was never going to be clean but if we could have, say, saved 1M more people by doing it another way. But if we've been there 20 years, across 4 Presidencies, sent thousands of troops, and spent trillions of dollars and it still fell so quickly, was there any reasonable amount of "blood and gold" we could have thrown at it to make the situation significantly better (not just around the margins)? I don't know - I'm just not informed enough. And what impact does that have on the military - we've been there so long, asked so much from so many troops, on a cause that looks like a loss. But I'm not sure there ever was a victory condition. Was there a way for them to not just have died to enrich the military contracting cronies of the Bush administration?

Lastly, I really am having a hard time with the "this country just wants Taliban rule" line of thought. For some segment of the population, sure, but for the whole country, writ large? If you had traveled overseas, say, 2 years ago - did you want to be painted with "hey - you're an entire country of white supremacists and your President keeps kids in cages at the border". God knows I voted against him and protested but there's only so much one person can do. There's more than enough screw ups in the country right now but I think there are still enough decent people to fight back. On the other hand, it's not like you could stop something like that easily. If somehow Trump rolled up through Texas in a tank* with the Texas national guard behind him - there's nothing I could do top stop them but try to escape and regroup in the "northern territories". Yet, it would be represented like Texas rolled over and let him through, even though more then 5M people voted against Trump in 2020.

SI

*yes, I picture him looking as a cross between Dukakis and Gaddafi - awkwardly driving a tank that he clearly doesn't understand, weighed down by a ton of fake medals he awarded himself; I mean, really, this is what Trump thinks he looks like in his own mind - even if it looks like rejected Tropico cover art

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

George Washington's army was so much better at taking over airports

Least you could do is stay current pal. I made this bad joke yesterday :P

[miami_fan]

But, for the adults in the room (and I use this term loosely since I'm including myself), what could we, as the US, do now or could have done in the last couple of weeks to make this different?

Short answer, nothing IMO. Once we established that the troops were going to be completely gone by 9/11, it confirmed to the Taliban knew they had free reign in the country.

Coming into 2021, what was the best way, out of a lot of bad options, to deal with the hand dealt? It seems to me, we're weighing our own security and the human rights violations against our own other security interests and the wellbeing of our soldiers and treasury.

The only thing that might have worked better was to make the pull out date announcement on Inauguration Day, inject thousands of forces into the region with in 48 hours to secure our interests and those Afghans that worked with us within Kabul and immediately begin shipping people out. That is not realistic though so the true answer is probably the best was out of all the bad options.

Lastly, I really am having a hard time with the "this country just wants Taliban rule" line of thought. For some segment of the population, sure, but for the whole country, writ large?

Well given that we are wedded to the binary in so many ways, it's either they just wanted Taliban rule OR they wanted democracy in the way we see it. They did not accept the second option so they HAD to have wanted the first option. There are no other acceptable answers.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I really am having a hard time with the "this country just wants Taliban rule" line of thought. For some segment of the population, sure, but for the whole country, writ large?

it's not pleasant, and I share some of the thoughts from your (excellent) post. On this ... I just don't see any other way to see it. Not *everyone* wants the Taliban. But I don't see any other way to fairly view the facts that doesn't end up concluding significantly more want the Taliban than don't.

Originally Posted by sterlingice

what could we, as the US, do now or could have done in the last couple of weeks to make this different?

I still think not a whole lot. The information I'm seeing, making the large assumption it's at all accurate but it's certainly better than a guess, indicates Taliban started buying off the Afghan government/negotiating/etc. as soon as the withdrawal agreement was signed. That our intelligence reports were inconsistent and largely incorrect. Etc

I think history should blame Trump more than any other president for the manner of the withdrawal, but I also think it was never going to be good. I agree with the sentiment expressed by others that there was no useful purpose for us to be there after bin Laden was eliminated.

The main thing I've re-learned through all of this is that we really don't know how to put reasonable lines down on a map to govern ourselves as a species. It's going to be painful and it won't happen in our lifetimes, but the sooner we have one government administering all of Earth the better off we'll be. Until then ... fractional conflict like this will not end until the people who live there want it to end more than they want it to continue. I know it's an overly simplistic assessment, but I think in general accurate, that this is basically what happened in Ireland after generations of violence in the late 90s. It's not 'over' there by any stretch, but it's much better than it was.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

But, for the adults in the room (and I use this term loosely since I'm including myself), what could we, as the US, do now or could have done in the last couple of weeks to make this different?

The sad answer is nothing. You can't turn around 20-years of failure over a couple of weeks. There is no good way to lose a war.

I mean, I just don't know the answer - this wasn't ever a war I wanted us to be in, except for the quick and dirty "kill Osama bin Laden" - which, of course, may have required boots on the ground to build up an infrastructure to accomplish it. And we can all relitigate how Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, et al, helped line their military contractor pockets. This is all true and all awful. But it's a sunk cost and it's in the past. Coming into 2021, what was the best way, out of a lot of bad options, to deal with the hand dealt? It seems to me, we're weighing our own security and the human rights violations against our own other security interests and the wellbeing of our soldiers and treasury.

The Taliban did offer to hand Bin Laden over to us. We said no. That needs to be taken into account when discussing the 20 years of disaster in Afghanistan.

And if you follow the money, it seems the primary goal of the war was to enrich military contractors. Basically laundering taxpayer money for Raytheon and Haliburton.

The United States Might Have Saved Afghanistan by Confronting Pakistan

Although these numbers are staggering, much of U.S. investment did not stay in Afghanistan. Because of heavy reliance on a complex ecosystem of defense contractors, Washington banditry, and aid contractors, between 80 and 90 percent of outlays actually returned to the U.S. economy. Of the 10 to 20 percent of the contracts that remained in the country, the United States rarely cared about the efficacy of the initiative. Although corruption is rife in Afghanistan, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction repeatedly identifies bewildering corruption by U.S. firms and individuals working in Afghanistan.