WW CXXXIX - The Red Death II - GAME OVER, SERVANTS WIN

[The Jackal]

Up to #11 in post count, we'll hit #10 today for sure

[The Jackal]

And what's even more awesome is that 6 of them will have been run by Abe or hoops, and if you extend to 15 you get 4 abe, 4 hoops, 3 alan, 2 BK, danny, cronin

[J23]

I'd like to hear his story today, but I don't think my vote is going elsewhere.

Vote EF

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm at least willing to sit around and see if anyone has new info from last night, and maybe even listen to what EF has to say today. I'm pretty sure that the vote will be going that way, but I'm not feeling a rush to jump on a likely landslide.

Kind of interesting kill last night - looks like the Servants went role-hunting. Chief Rum wasn't an interesting enough role for them?

I was a little surprised, too, hoops, but then maybe they're a little anxious because they don't know what items I have. As I said, I do have a handful of protective items I have built over the past few nights, and they're going to protect me against most anything I have seen so far in this game. In fact, I felt comfortable enough with the items I had that I passed a couple more items away last night.

[Autumn]

I'm not keen on giving him wriggle room. He's given his story. He couldn't do anything yesterday, so what can he have to add? I expect we've got a wolf in him, and I expect that we may have another in some of the people who have been trying to continue to keep alive the chance that he's not a wolf (*a* wolf, that doesn't mean everyone who's done so is a wolf). They have to have been hoping that they put enough doubt into things to keep him alive another day or two. The other possibility I'm contemplating, seeing Narc's move to save EF, is maybe he's actually the last one.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

My complete speculation - the wolves are afraid CR has by this point created an item that will either let him fend off an attack or take his attacker down with him.

Ah, I see someone already suggested this.

Yes--in fact, I myself said as much a couple days ago when I revealed. That I had enough protection to last me a couple nights. I still have those items that give me reason to believe that, too. I am guessing they were paying attention.

[Chief Rum]

I would rathergte a quick nightfall and a productive day of discussion, rather than wait to hear what EF might say that could give us doubt on our chosen course of action. I don't see any way we can avoid lynching him today, even if we think he might not be a wolf after all. Incidentally, I do still think he's a wolf.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

VOTE NIGHTFALL

[Chief Rum]

rathergte== "rather get"

[Autumn]

vote eaglefan
vote nightfall

[Autumn]

I think something's wrong on the Day Four listing. I see EF vote Bug but then never change his vote, but i don't see that vote listed in the totals. That of course is the one day I don't have in my notes.

[Autumn]

It will be easier to figure out once we know who EF is. If he's an original wolf, and the next one we're looking for is a convert, I would expect them to have picked from early cleared villagers, either early reveals, or villagers scanned by Bug, if we have any left. My goal when I get a chance to look back thoroughly will be to see if there are people who were "cleared" early who have later on voted to help the wolves.

If EF is a convert, then it's back to the drawing board looking for someone wolfish early and late. In that case it will be pure voting history I guess. I would look particularly at UTR players, or those that were in the vote early but got passed up for villagers in the end.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

And what's even more awesome is that 6 of them will have been run by Abe or hoops, and if you extend to 15 you get 4 abe, 4 hoops, 3 alan, 2 BK, danny, cronin

At least I got in there once.

[The Jackal]

vote nightfall

[J23]

I still think he's a wolf. I don't think there's harm in hearing from him before voting nightfall.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I'd like to propose something here if Abe will allow it. A quick nightfall vote on Eaglefan this morning, and not having to wait all day then for the Servants to take their action. Its pretty clear that we must lynch Eaglefan today, so I'd like to get it over with as soon as possible.

vote nightfall
vote eaglefan

Great!!!! This vote doesn't count right? He voted nightfall before voting!!!

[EagleFan]

I am being framed but I can't see what their play is.

[mauchow]

Now's as good a time as any I think. I am the sheriff.

I haven't made a good call yet. I didn't Come out right away because I thought bug was converted and trying to buy trust by killing narc. It was a bad day for certain.

N1 - me
N2 - nobody. Got hammered and forgot order
N3 - dzilla
N4 - bug
N5 - hoops - i meant to change my order to sndvls after hoops started talking like there was no way he was the sheriff. I was counting on the wolves to go sheriff hunting which is clearly what they did last night w grama
N6 - myself

I wanted to come out so we discussed the ef lynch with knowing full well narc was never the sheriff.

I hope this wasn't a mistake revealing.

[EagleFan]

Probably that they knew Narc was being lynched no matter what. They probably didn't want to risk that you changed your mind on me. This way you do exactly what you are doing now.

Oh well, I haven't helped the village at all this game anyway so I might as well be lynched. Good luck afterwards village.

I'll check back in to hope that you don't let the wolves direct your play but will be tied up most of the day. May be able to check in at lunch but wont have any major time until this evening (and early evening will be tied up taking the lax sticks out and playing catch with my daughters, have to get the evening outside time in with them before it gets to where it's dark by th etime I get home every night).

[mauchow]

I just don't see wolves teaming up to pull a move like what happened that day when bug died. It just doesn't make sense.

[mauchow]

With that said..

vote autumn

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Great!!!! This vote doesn't count right? He voted nightfall before voting!!!

vote eaglefan
vote nightfall

[The Jackal]

Interesting, so they were role hunting last night

[The Jackal]

That vote for autumn is just your gut, right mau?

[mauchow]

Yes.

Stop night falling..jeez

[EagleFan]

Okay, out for a while. Hope everyone comes to their senses.

Have a good day.

[EagleFan]

Oh, who silenced me yesterday? Did that every get announced?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Now's as good a time as any I think. I am the sheriff.

I haven't made a good call yet. I didn't Come out right away because I thought bug was converted and trying to buy trust by killing narc. It was a bad day for certain.

N1 - me
N2 - nobody. Got hammered and forgot order
N3 - dzilla
N4 - bug
N5 - hoops - i meant to change my order to sndvls after hoops started talking like there was no way he was the sheriff. I was counting on the wolves to go sheriff hunting which is clearly what they did last night w grama
N6 - myself

I wanted to come out so we discussed the ef lynch with knowing full well narc was never the sheriff.

I hope this wasn't a mistake revealing.

Okay, putting aside the insatnt reaction of what mauboy's been doing with the role, this makes sense to me from the perspective of the wolves role hunting. Why would they avoid me or mckerney?

Simple: they had a stronger role still out there they wanted to find.

I thought about it earlier, but I had thought Narc became the Succubus when he got his new role after being converted.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Oh, who silenced me yesterday? Did that every get announced?

No

[Chief Rum]

UNVOTE NIGHTFALL

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Yes.

Stop night falling..jeez

Gut read vs general village angst against EF .. yeah I do believe you are telling the truth mau but it's going to be hard to push people off him today.

[The Jackal]

But if mau isn't voting nightfall there's no point right now anyways.

unvote nightfall

[The Jackal]

Between autumn, dubb, and hoops we've got three very prime conversion targets who would all play it very cool.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I just don't see wolves teaming up to pull a move like what happened that day when bug died. It just doesn't make sense.

Can you lay out your thoughts more on this? Why doesn't it make sense?

I am trying to remember the order of reveals and events from that day, looking at it from the perspective of EF as a wolf and EF as a villager. But so much crap happened that day, I don't remember all the details.

Also, why autumn. You have to give more than a runaway vote here, mauboy.

[Autumn]

Glad to see we still have a sheriff, but really, Mauboy? You think EF is a good guy, and I'm a bad guy? I know I'm biased, but that doesn't look fishy to anyone? I'm really suspicious of anyone suddenly taking this opportunity to move off of EF. As I said earlier this morning, the wolves have to be looking for any chance to wriggle out of this lynch.

Mauboy care to explain A) why you don't think EF is bad, and B) why you think I am?

[The Jackal]

I'm still just wondering why Narc wouldn't have left his vote on EF to force us to lynch Narc today instead of yesterday.

And the only reason that comes to mind is that EF is another wolf and he was hoping we'd move away from that today. I'd love to hear some alternate theories .. if EF is in fact not a wolf I don't see the benefit for the wolves for us lynching him today instead of yesterday.

[mauchow]

I don't mind ef Lynch I just want a good decision.

[The Jackal]

And if Mau is telling the truth, between him and CR with his own objects and passing objects it gives the wolves a lot to think about with the NK, gives us a much better chance of extending the game.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I don't mind ef Lynch I just want a good decision.

Well if you want to lay out a case against Autumn feel free

[Chief Rum]

Okay. do I have these events right?

Bug reveals as seer D3 or D4, forget which; survives night, doesn't say who he scanned N4

All on Day Five/Night Five:

EF driveby reveals as detective, saying Bug is convert
Bug shows up, says Narc is a Servant
Narc shows up, claims to be sheriff
EF returns and says he saw Bug being converted
SnDvls reveals as a detective as well, says he does not buy EF's reveal
We lynch Bug; he's the villager seer
SnDvls is NK'd, he's the detective

Day Six/Night Six:

EF returns apologizes, says he saw Narc being converted, not Bug
WTF! ()
We lynch Narc; he's a servant

Do I have the order of events right? As they relate to the Bug-EF-Narc-SnDvls foursome?

[Autumn]

All I see here is that Mau's reveal shows us that EF was absolutely lying. If Narc was never the sheriff then EF did not see Narc getting converted, which means EF's story has nothing to it. Unless we now want to assume that Narc was another role, which was converted night four, and EF saw that. I don't know, people seem willing to bend awfully far to give credence to EF's story. We lynch people over way less than this.

Narc voted himself rather than EF. If EF is not a wolf, then Narc must just be the last wolf and wanted the game over? I mean what possible explanation is there for that?

[The Jackal]

I believe so CR. SnD at first believed EF but then retracted his belief as the day went on due to some minor issues with the way EF worded his reveal. But we still lynched bug because we felt it would tell us the most about the threesome.

[The Jackal]

That's a very good point Autumn. Evidence keeps stacking up against EF.

[The Jackal]

It seems now that Narc's reveal was role hunting and he was hoping that since he was going to get lynched anyways that the BG would reveal and they'd know who he was. Kudos to mau for not revealing if he is indeed telling the truth, forced them to kill off a vanilla villager last night and kept them in the dark a bit longer.

[The Jackal]

Narc was a prime conversion target as well though, I'm not sure I can be 100% convinced it was an original role or a converted one, but maybe I need to read through the writeup again.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

As masters of the Occult and all things Red Death, you identify her

Succubus – You have been called demon by some, but you are really just an unappreciated creature. You may not be given kill actions, unless you are the last Servant left. During the day, your vote counts triple, but nobody will know unless it effects the results, what the actual numbers are (otherwise, numbers will not be published, just the winner of the Cleansing Flame vote). You are the only one who can use the Seduce action.

Bringing it back to this page so we can look it over, and it does sound more likely this was an original role. Doesn't really sound like a "minor undead".

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

It seems now that Narc's reveal was role hunting and he was hoping that since he was going to get lynched anyways that the BG would reveal and they'd know who he was. Kudos to mau for not revealing if he is indeed telling the truth, forced them to kill off a vanilla villager last night and kept them in the dark a bit longer.

Well, it also led us to lynch our seer, so I'm not sure it was all roses. In this game a BG's probably worth more than a seer, but it it would have been nice to get a few more scans out of Bug.

[The Jackal]

And mau, if you're telling us the truth I don't know how we can't lynch EF today. The time for gut reads about someone who's been converted isn't quite yet. Even if EF is a villager somehow the game won't be over.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well, it also led us to lynch our seer, so I'm not sure it was all roses. In this game a BG's probably worth more than a seer, but it it would have been nice to get a few more scans out of Bug.

I really think it was EF's reveal and the confusion around it that led us to lynch bug. Also bug played it a little sly, and people noticed enough strangeness there that they weren't convinced he was the seer. And this is why most of us have said we need EF out.

[Autumn]

What day did Bug say he scanned Mauboy? Because the only reason he got a pass for his Day 3 vote, and wasn't lumped in with RA, Chief and EF, was because of the scan.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I really think it was EF's reveal and the confusion around it that led us to lynch bug. Also bug played it a little sly, and people noticed enough strangeness there that they weren't convinced he was the seer. And this is why most of us have said we need EF out.

No, my point is if Mauboy had counterrevealed, we would have known Narc was lying and not lynched Bug. We might have then lost one of them that night or the next night, but part of the reason we lynched Bug was that no one countered Narcizo.