LXXVII Spawn III: Game Over (See Post 4507)

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I can't really argue with the stuff in your post here about me -- I'm pretty scatter-brained, and it's usually the fact that I pop in a lot and look back at stuff that helps me recover. The reduced time probably isn't as big of a deal as the stress going along with it, that's making me more scatter-brained. And you're probably right about my role being expendable for the moment, but I think the same can be said about olie -- with no HQ, she can't do her thang, either.

Is there something in what I said about olie that makes it less convincing? Keep in mind, it only started as me trying to explain to you why what I did was different than what she did, not to make a case for her being a wolf. There are some good reasons for me to trust her, so it's not like I have blinders on here. She was with me guarding the HQ last night, and she was on the ball about making sure we repair the HQ soon for the phasers. On the other hand, there are problems with that, because there was no attack on the HQ last night, and because if she's a wolf and in control of the phasers, then letting her get the phasers back helps the wolves.

Yeah, I get the real life stuff, like I said, I'm factoring that in to your aberrational style of play

As far as what you said about olie and what you did, no, I still don't see the difference.

You said (too lazy to post dig) that you thought she was just voting Telle in an effort to buy trust and vote with the village. You quoted the post earlier about "I'll vote Telle to get her lynched" (paraphrase). Those are similar in my mind, only you actually seemed to want to steer the conversation onto someone else where as I didn't get the vibe from olie that she wanted to necessarily argue for an alternative, but that she just didn't agree (initially).

It's one thing to vote against the village. It's another to argue against the village (and vote). Granted, you both in the end switched back, but by then it was all meaningless (around Sal's vote) so far as I can tell.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Because it was late. Because I was pissed off that you were jumping my shit for basically doing the same damn thing you did - switching my vote. I was pissed that SL was nagging me to get off the computer so I felt rushed to avoid fighting with my husband but also felt the need to stay and defend myself. I honestly thought I'd wake up this morning and have 5 or 6 votes on me.

but, all I'd said to you before that post was "what about hoops spying on her?" -- is that what you meant by me "jumping your shit"?

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why wouldn't there be a large group of people who I think might be a wolf? What's wrong with that?

Because somewhere in that large group of people are the wolves, people who deserve the vote a whole lot more than I do. Like the 3 people I named for starters. I'm just saying your logic in putting a vote on me doesn't make sense when you are admitting there is only one reason to doubt me and that reason applies to a lot of people.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Whatever order you all repair stuff in, make sure the slavepen is fixed tonight. I can't kill the slaves without it fixed.. we really can't have them around anymore. They are nice people but I think our relationship is at an end.. its me not them... etc

Agreed. I personally think Tyrith (and ergo clap) should go there to wrap that up.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

but, all I'd said to you before that post was "what about hoops spying on her?" -- is that what you meant by me "jumping your shit"?

You had said something else that had rubbed me the wrong way - don't remember what it is without going back and looking - and I was irritated that you were hounding me for doing the same thing you had done...change your vote.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Yeah, I get the real life stuff, like I said, I'm factoring that in to your aberrational style of play

As far as what you said about olie and what you did, no, I still don't see the difference.

You said (too lazy to post dig) that you thought she was just voting Telle in an effort to buy trust and vote with the village. You quoted the post earlier about "I'll vote Telle to get her lynched" (paraphrase). Those are similar in my mind, only you actually seemed to want to steer the conversation onto someone else where as I didn't get the vibe from olie that she wanted to necessarily argue for an alternative, but that she just didn't agree (initially).

It's one thing to vote against the village. It's another to argue against the village (and vote). Granted, you both in the end switched back, but by then it was all meaningless (around Sal's vote) so far as I can tell.

You don't have to factor it in -- if it affects the game, it does. It's not like I need some kind of pass for it.

You don't have to dig up the posts if you don't want to, but I don't think you'll find that I had a serious intent to get Alan lynched. If I were trying to get people to follow me in an attempt to save Telle, why would I choose Alan? My stated intent was to make sure Telle got lynched. It seemed to me like olie had the opposite intent, and only changed her mind when pressed.

[jeheinz72]

No offense really meant to people, but I'm tired of the "I have eleventy hundred pages to read and I was gone 12 minutes!" or people telling me (and others) to stop posting or post less.

It ain't gonna happen. I'll post when I want to post and at the frequency I deem necessary. Sorry. Thems the breaks.

This is Werewolf, not Tiddlywinks, and Spawn at that, you knew and were warned about what you signed up for.

I don't want to get in a pissing match with anyone on the matter, but I want to put that out there.

I do genuinely like and respect each of you, but reading that is tiring.

You can keep posting it if it makes you happy, but I, just so you know, am whole-heartedly ignoring it (granted I'm gone till Tuesday anyways, so who cares, but still).

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Because somewhere in that large group of people are the wolves, people who deserve the vote a whole lot more than I do. Like the 3 people I named for starters. I'm just saying your logic in putting a vote on me doesn't make sense when you are admitting there is only one reason to doubt me and that reason applies to a lot of people.

I never did that. I said that one reason I had to TRUST you wasn't that strong.

[Danny]

I'm and catching up now.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

You had said something else that had rubbed me the wrong way - don't remember what it is without going back and looking - and I was irritated that you were hounding me for doing the same thing you had done...change your vote.

Could be. A lot of people accuse me of questioning them for doing the same thing I did. Usually I just want to know what their reasons were, because I suspect they're different from mine, and I find that I get a lot out of their reaction by asking about it.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

No offense really meant to people, but I'm tired of the "I have eleventy hundred pages to read and I was gone 12 minutes!" or people telling me (and others) to stop posting or post less.

It ain't gonna happen. I'll post when I want to post and at the frequency I deem necessary. Sorry. Thems the breaks.

This is Werewolf, not Tiddlywinks, and Spawn at that, you knew and were warned about what you signed up for.

I don't want to get in a pissing match with anyone on the matter, but I want to put that out there.

I do genuinely like and respect each of you, but reading that is tiring.

You can keep posting it if it makes you happy, but I, just so you know, am whole-heartedly ignoring it (granted I'm gone till Tuesday anyways, so who cares, but still).

I would like to take this chance to remind everyone that a very simple/small game of WW is starting up this weekend. For those whom have joined the dead, or those who find this intimidating, I can almost guarantee that it won't match this thread's post per hour rate!

/end advertisement

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Phazers with a z. I like it.

Let's research!

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

No offense really meant to people, but I'm tired of the "I have eleventy hundred pages to read and I was gone 12 minutes!" or people telling me (and others) to stop posting or post less.

It ain't gonna happen. I'll post when I want to post and at the frequency I deem necessary. Sorry. Thems the breaks.

This is Werewolf, not Tiddlywinks, and Spawn at that, you knew and were warned about what you signed up for.

I don't want to get in a pissing match with anyone on the matter, but I want to put that out there.

I do genuinely like and respect each of you, but reading that is tiring.

You can keep posting it if it makes you happy, but I, just so you know, am whole-heartedly ignoring it (granted I'm gone till Tuesday anyways, so who cares, but still).

How cool would this be if it WERE Tiddlywinks though?

Anyone else think Tiddlywinks is a sweet word?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I really dont know how to vote here. Marc Vaughn lying about being an empath? Everybody following hoops blindly to hang Telle?

I think I am giong to wait till BK comes back with Chubby's statement to vote

Knowing now that MV is not Spawn, this post does stick out to me, in re-reading.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

And I hope he was the one who made the first all-in.

The all-ins came after the flop when I had already made the straight, then made the flush on the turn. And yes, I was in the chip lead at that point.

[PackerFanatic]

...no idea why that was multi-quoted, must have accidentally hit that earlier.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Could be. A lot of people accuse me of questioning them for doing the same thing I did. Usually I just want to know what their reasons were, because I suspect they're different from mine, and I find that I get a lot out of their reaction by asking about it.

OK - so at the end of all this, do you at least admit that there are much better candidates out there besides me? We can continue to argue, or we can work together and go through posts to try to find a candidate we agree on and try to catch a bad guy.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

...no idea why that was multi-quoted, must have accidentally hit that earlier.

Don't let olie find out!

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

How cool would this be if it WERE Tiddlywinks though?

Anyone else think Tiddlywinks is a sweet word?

Dude that would be phenomenal

Werewolf LXXX: Tiddlywinks of Horror

I may have my new GM idea.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

The all-ins came after the flop when I had already made the straight, then made the flush on the turn. And yes, I was in the chip lead at that point.

Carry on, well done.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I've been keeping my eye on the Danny and Purdue Brad situation regarding their claims after mine from a few days before...

I got complete information on what my secret role was last night finally in PM... I'm interested in hearing if the same is true for Danny and PB.

I got mine two nights ago. First night it said you can feel the spawn. Second night it said I am now convinced I am spawn aware. Last night revealed no new information, but there wouldn't be any unless I felt a spawn which I did not.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

OK - so at the end of all this, do you at least admit that there are much better candidates out there besides me? We can continue to argue, or we can work together and go through posts to try to find a candidate we agree on and try to catch a bad guy.

If I really thought that, I wouldn't have voted for you. I'm willing to listen to arguments for other people, though.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Dude that would be phenomenal

Werewolf LXXX: Tiddlywinks of Horror

I may have my new GM idea.

Hey, does tiddlywinks count as a board game? That's MY territory!

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Dude that would be phenomenal

Werewolf LXXX: Tiddlywinks of Horror

I may have my new GM idea.

Can I pre-emptively join? That sounds awesome.

[The Jackal]

Got a basketball game coming up - did anyone get hurt on away missions today?

[Alan T]

I said once in space I'd start lynching people as there won't be any more conversions after whatever spawnlings that currently are planted turn into spawn..

I may or may not be back more this afternoon, but like I said earlier, I'd rather us get a chance to scan Saldana before we lynch him (maybe I am just feeling guilty from the last game and finally I'm getting soft)...

So either Passacaglia because of heebie jeebies or LSG because of poor results... I said I am trying to not run my game this time based on gut feelings so guess I'll vote LSG as she had the worst mission, her reaction yesterday during the earlier stages of the Telle lynch wern't very good based on the final result and her role isn't necessarily vital for this ship surviving right now

Vote Lonestargirl

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Since I have been opposed no lynch since the get go and since it looks like we are close to lynching somebody I am all about it!

vote telle

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

oh and for what its worth I would love to vote bulletsponge instead, but like Mrs. Schmidty said i doubt we are gong to get a run on him with an hour to deadline

Here is LSG"s vote, coming when it was already 8-1 Telle. It's a back-breaker vote for Telle, but it came in a way, after 8 was reached and the deal was about sealed.

The top post didn't sit right with Pass either.

Hrm.

[path12]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

I did. I said last night that my reason for voting no lynch was b/c I wasn't sure about following hoops - and that I'd changed my mind. And I know you read it b/c you replied and said something very similar - like "that is all you had to say" or something like that.

I think there's at least a 35% chance that Olie could kick my ass. Just thought I'd share.

[Passacaglia]

FYI: I'm leaving in an hour, and won't be back until after deadline. So if those planning on voting for me would do me the courtesy of doing it now, that would help me (and the village) a lot. Thanks!

[Danny]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Frankly, Danny not waiting is suspicious, IMO. I don't see why he put that order in (not that I see why the first 3 people did, but I at least posted the wait idea after they already had)

Scanning Danny should be creeping up on the priority list of the doc's.

I have about five minutes to catch up in the morning before work. I saw all the other engineers working on the water plant, so I sent in my order real quick so you guys didn't have to wait until I got home. I then read your message and sent a request to BK to cancel, but I guess it was too late. Please do scan me.

[jeheinz72]

Unvote Passacaglia

I've got my eye on you. I personally see a differentiation between your case and Olie's, but it's not enough in the end...yet.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Danny

I have about five minutes to catch up in the morning before work. I saw all the other engineers working on the water plant, so I sent in my order real quick so you guys didn't have to wait until I got home. I then read your message and sent a request to BK to cancel, but I guess it was too late. Please do scan me.

Yeah, I've decided to drop that line of thinking (though I bet you're still catching up and just getting to that post anyhow)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Here is LSG"s vote, coming when it was already 8-1 Telle. It's a back-breaker vote for Telle, but it came in a way, after 8 was reached and the deal was about sealed.

The top post didn't sit right with Pass either.

Hrm.

That's true, it didn't -- I thought about saying that Alan had a good "heebie-jeebie" reason to vote LSG, too. Anyway, I just thought it was strange that she voted for Telle after speaking out against voting for her earlier.

[path12]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

No offense really meant to people, but I'm tired of the "I have eleventy hundred pages to read and I was gone 12 minutes!" or people telling me (and others) to stop posting or post less.

It ain't gonna happen. I'll post when I want to post and at the frequency I deem necessary. Sorry. Thems the breaks.

This is Werewolf, not Tiddlywinks, and Spawn at that, you knew and were warned about what you signed up for.

I don't want to get in a pissing match with anyone on the matter, but I want to put that out there.

I do genuinely like and respect each of you, but reading that is tiring.

You can keep posting it if it makes you happy, but I, just so you know, am whole-heartedly ignoring it (granted I'm gone till Tuesday anyways, so who cares, but still).

It doesn't bother me. This is an awesome ruleset but as someone said earlier they didn't realize the "time intensive" aspect is what it is in such a game. I'd be really frustrated if I couldn't keep up and felt like I was scanning multiple pages -- especially when there's so much cool stuff to do.

I do think it's going to quiet down post-wise now that we're off the planet though. I think we start playing straight WW now.....so that means only 30 pages instead of 60.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Unvote Passacaglia

I've got my eye on you. I personally see a differentiation between your case and Olie's, but it's not enough in the end...yet.

What made you change your mind?

[Danny]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

All of your "misquotes" and mis-references remind me of mccollins' slip up last game where he mentioned PM's and then had to backtrack his way out of it...of course he ended up being a wolf in that game, and I was lynched as a villager within a day of jumping on his mistake...you going to try to repeat history???

Actually, while Mccollins was a wolf, he really did make an innocent mistake in regards to that. He was referring to telle who he never sent a PM too because she was not a wolf.

[jeheinz72]

Ok, so that's my look into LSG. She went out on Missions on Day 2 and 4. So she's a flat 25% chance at Spawn, disregarding conversion on-ship (15% + 10%)

Now let's look at Sal. He's got the starting 15% plus 3 missions for a total of 45% at being Spawnling and 35% at being Spawn (at this point)

Mission 1 - 16 crys
Mission 2 - no mission (slave roundup)
Mission 3 - 33 Crys
Mission 4 - ~20 crys

So the real key is Mission 3. He goes out, with no scientist, with just slaves and at a *crucial* juncture when we needed lots of Crys and he could've faked it here and blamed it on the slaves. Instead he gets our biggest haul.

I think I much prefer a scan of Saldana tomorrow than I do to his lynching today.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What made you change your mind?

Part that it's a big vote. It's WW-playin time. Part that it's a close call on you vs Olie. Part that even if I felt stronger I wouldn't be around to make a real case about you. It's enough to not tackle it today.

[jeheinz72]

Yeah this all adds up to

Vote LoneStarGirl

25% Spawn at this moment, 35% Spawn after today. THat's only 10% better than Saldana's chances. I think he's easily made that difference up in performance on missions and in general behavior, especially last night.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Ok, so that's my look into LSG. She went out on Missions on Day 2 and 4. So she's a flat 25% chance at Spawn, disregarding conversion on-ship (15% + 10%)

Now let's look at Sal. He's got the starting 15% plus 3 missions for a total of 45% at being Spawnling and 35% at being Spawn (at this point)

Mission 1 - 16 crys
Mission 2 - no mission (slave roundup)
Mission 3 - 33 Crys
Mission 4 - ~20 crys

So the real key is Mission 3. He goes out, with no scientist, with just slaves and at a *crucial* juncture when we needed lots of Crys and he could've faked it here and blamed it on the slaves. Instead he gets our biggest haul.

I think I much prefer a scan of Saldana tomorrow than I do to his lynching today.

If it's three missions, wouldn't you say his chance of NOT being spawn is 0.85* 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 = 0.62? I'm not sure where the 15% comes from, though -- is that 3 divided by the number of players?

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Alan T

If you only went out once and it was by far the worst mission we had then that still doesn't change the fact that you wouldn't be a bad lynch choice today as that mission failed either due to poor RNG or you being a spawn.



Whatever order you all repair stuff in, make sure the slavepen is fixed tonight. I can't kill the slaves without it fixed.. we really can't have them around anymore. They are nice people but I think our relationship is at an end.. its me not them... etc

I agree, let's get the pens fixed and the slaves dead. I will actually be around, so I will wait on my orders until I know for sure what those who will not be around to change will be fixing.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Yeah, I've decided to drop that line of thinking (though I bet you're still catching up and just getting to that post anyhow)

Yeah, I don't worry about it too much because I feel pretty good about you since we've worked together three times and you haven't been revealed as a spawn.

I do have a question for BK though. BK, I noticed there is a spawn ability to block someone's passive ability. Would I get a message if this happened to me?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

If it's three missions, wouldn't you say his chance of NOT being spawn is 0.85* 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 = 0.62? I'm not sure where the 15% comes from, though -- is that 3 divided by the number of players?

Yeah, I was just using the crude chances

15% to start (worst case, ahem, 3 starting spawn and 20 people who aren't me, Alan (cleared) and KWhit (cleared).

10% just since it's the base amount.

Realistically when comparing one person's chances to another, the difference in the methods is minimal.

Yours results in a 38% Spawn chance for Sal and 31ish% for LSG. Mine is 45% for Sal and 35% for LSG. The ratio there isn't all that dissimilar (1.23:1 and 1.29:1), or at least not enough so that it's worth the multiplication.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Danny

I agree, let's get the pens fixed and the slaves dead. I will actually be around, so I will wait on my orders until I know for sure what those who will not be around to change will be fixing.

I made a post to this effect you should look at (1-2 pages back)

[Danny]

I guess I skimmed over it, I'll look for it

[saldana]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Got a basketball game coming up - did anyone get hurt on away missions today?

no..i was the only person that went out

[Danny]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

***ENGINEERS***

Ok, here is what we should be at, plus anything we occur at the end of the day

Engine Room – Operational (Undamaged)
Water Plant – 1
Cargo Hold - 2
Security Headquarters 3
Slave Pens – 2
Sleeping Quarters – 23

Clap is following Tyrith. I think we need to focus in this order

Water
Slaves
Cargo
Security
Beds

I'm putting an order in tonight to work on the water plant. I'll let you guys decide if you need to back me up on account of worrying if I fake (which would be a bad spawn move, I"ll add) or more likely, failure due to exhaustion. But I'll let you all figure that out (I'd presume Danny or PB would work with me as well).

Tyrith and Clap are working together, I'd recommend on the Slaves to get that done. Then whoever is left can work on the hold.


I have to put my actions in for day and night 5 now, so I'll be following around Tyrith as I now realize that Clap should be back online by then so it won't be a double-follow situation as I had worried. So keep that in mind Tyrith.

This one??

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Danny

This one??

Yes, my action is in for the Water Plant repair. I'll let you guys decide if you feel you need to double me up for lack of trust or exhaustion issues.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Yeah, I was just using the crude chances

15% to start (worst case, ahem, 3 starting spawn and 20 people who aren't me, Alan (cleared) and KWhit (cleared).

10% just since it's the base amount.

Realistically when comparing one person's chances to another, the difference in the methods is minimal.

Yours results in a 38% Spawn chance for Sal and 31ish% for LSG. Mine is 45% for Sal and 35% for LSG. The ratio there isn't all that dissimilar (1.23:1 and 1.29:1), or at least not enough so that it's worth the multiplication.

That's cool. Funny thing is, I don't take that much stock in the numbers game -- I mean, anyone looking at them agree who has the higher chance of being spawn based on the data -- the rest is just nit-picking.

[Passacaglia]

Whoo! Our offer was accepted! Now we just have to hope we made the right decision to buy it, and won't feel like we paid too much!

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Whoo! Our offer was accepted! Now we just have to hope we made the right decision to buy it, and won't feel like we paid too much!

Bought a house?