COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[molson]

Stubhub used to heavily promote it's "FanProtect Guarantee", which promised refunds on purchases if the event was cancelled or valid tickets weren't delivered. They've decided now that they can't do that anymore. So if you bought your tickets when that guarantee was in effect, you only get a Stubhub credit, which of course, isn't a particularly enticing thing right now.

I know Stubhub is just kind fucked now (and they just were acquired by a new buyer in February, oops!), but this is a lot of money to hold hostage.

The NBA, NHL, and MLB postponing rather than cancelling games adds to the complications. I have some NHL tickets I bought that I know I'll never see a penny from Stubhub for. Not the end of the world, it is what it is. I'm trying to decide if a chargeback is appropriate, and what the right timing for that would be. I understand we're all in this together, and I'm OK with taking my fair share of financial loss as a result of a global pandemic, but, letting me eat the entire $400 doesn't seem right either. And this is kind of what credit card warranties/consumer protection are for. (particularly when I bought the tickets under a promise of a refund if the event was cancelled). But I guess it's prudent to wait for the NHL to cancel the season, or until the chargeback time limit is counting down.

[RainMaker]

What this is going to do to small businesses is sad. Especially retail stores that are required to close. The CARES Act has done jack shit so far and the SBA doesn't have the resources to handle this. I'm sure Boeing will get their bailout though without a problem.

https://gen.medium.com/what-its-like...l-9547de64f5e5

[panerd]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Ohio has renewed their stay at home order until May 1st.

Businesses are now suppose to set limits on how many customers are allowed in their store at any given time.

I have seen that stores in certain states are doing this and my thought is how about a way to create mass panic and hysteria. Plus how is the line waiting to get in not the worst possible way to contain the spread? Oh yeah people are going to see the line and just go home not go into the store and over buy right?

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by bob

i saw this online:

"There's a kernel of truth to what Kemp said about asymptomatic spreading, though he did a poor job explaining it.

It's old news that COVID-19 could spread without symptoms, but it's very recently that there's growing scientific support behind the idea that a huge portion of cases may have come from asymptomatic shedding. That's unusual compared to similar viruses.

Even the CDC is starting to re-evaluate recommendations (e.g., should the general public wear masks when not sick) because they weren't expecting these carriers to be this big of a problem just a couple weeks ago."

Not really, that's something the WHO tried to make us all aware of back in February, when still only China was hit hard.

[Edward64]

Fauci was on a MSNBC snippet (not sure when the interview/speech was) and said our trajectory is the same as Italy's "after correcting for population".

This is the first time I've heard this. I didn't think we were near as bad as Italy.

They also showed Pence speaking to his in his Pence way. Fauci was much more plain spoken and direct.

[SirFozzie]

I saw Pence had said yesterday "We're on the Italy trajectory"

[tarcone]

Still no Stay at Home order in Missouri.

Governor said tomorrow he would have ne information on what the next step is.

Said the state is so diverse it is hard to give a blanket order. Because what is an essential business in an urban area is different than a rural area.

Guess he has never been to Florida or New York or any other state with a big metro area.

When he lies he starts stammering a little and his voice gets a little more slurry.

[albionmoonlight]

Anyone watching videos of Spring Break saw that we were on the Italy trajectory . . . :-(

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

This is the first time I've heard this. I didn't think we were near as bad as Italy.

Wait a week or two. The projections are staggering. And if anything, our death counts have been coming in above the projections.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Fauci was on a MSNBC snippet (not sure when the interview/speech was) and said our trajectory is the same as Italy's "after correcting for population".

This is the first time I've heard this. I didn't think we were near as bad as Italy.

I still don't think we are. Fauci is probably just trying not to get bogged down in details and emphasizing the seriousness.

On March 19, Italy reached the point of having a confirmed case per 20,000 people. At that point their death rate - and again we know they have people dying at home without being counted in it so it was really higher - was 56.3 per million population. The USA reached that same level of confirmed cases on March 30-31, and even a few days later our death rate is not even a third of what Italy's was then.

Differences in testing and all that but we know Italy got behind on testing early due to the hospitals being overwhelmed etc. It's still getting worse here, it's going to continue to get worse, but we're not Italy.

[Brian Swartz]

On the other hand, unpleasant as it is, NYC and other areas need to stop pretending the issue of rationing care will somehow go away or that we're magically going to not run out of ventilators anywhere and issue guidelines. From what I've read, the state doesn't want to go anywhere near it, hospitals are waiting on guidance from the state, and meanwhile doctors and ER staff are asking for direction because they need to prepared and communicate this stuff. Feels to me like the latest Ostrich Brigade moment with nobody stepping up to say what has to be said.

[Brian Swartz]

And also just noticed … France reporting 1355 deaths so far today. Population-adjusted, that's more today than the entire count in the US outbreak.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by panerd

My guess is it's the production. I would assume cameramen, video editing truck, announcers, security etc would be closer together than the two players. Agree though that sports would be great for morale and a huge boom for whatever league starts televising. (I haven't watched tennis in years but am so starved for sports I would probably watch tennis or golf)

I have a feeling that the NBA jump started the getting off our butts and doing something and they will probably lead the way in getting back to televising games etc.

NBA, or NHL are not coming back. They are going stick a fork in the seasons and leave them for dead. It is just not worth it at this point. MLB is iffy and sounds like even the NFL might eventually cancel if as expected the virus does not disappear by fall and instead comes back strong in October.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

And also just noticed … France reporting 1355 deaths so far today. Population-adjusted, that's more today than the entire count in the US outbreak.

They added a provisional count of deaths so far in retirement/care facilities that never were hospitalised and added them to todays total, 884 extra.
Up until now they only reported deaths in hospitals and that number for today was similar to yesterday.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21K31I

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Last I read the SECDEF and SECNAV were both saying the right things but it might have changed. It is the same situation as the hospitals, their staff and the PPE. I highly doubt that the Captain only wrote that one letter.

And the Captain is being relieved from duty for releasing the letter to the media.

He's a hero and should be a lesson to others in the Navy.

[RainMaker]

This is going to wipe out small businesses around the country. All your local diners, barbers, etc that add to communities will be gone. Just a handful of big chains when this is over.

Banks warn that a $350B lending program for struggling small businesses won't be ready when it launches Friday because the Trump administration has failed to provide them with the necessary guidelines and set requirements for the loans that are unworkable https://t.co/Go2KzS5I7P

— POLITICO (@politico) April 2, 2020

“fuck you, pay me” in pandemic times https://t.co/QVKlSmA39p

— Chris Thompson (@MadBastardsAll) April 2, 2020

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by whomario

Up until now they only reported deaths in hospitals and that number for today was similar to yesterday.

Thanks, I hadn't seen that. I knew they weren't counting the other deaths previously, but not that they were going to add them in a lump sum.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

This is going to wipe out small businesses around the country. All your local diners, barbers, etc that add to communities will be gone. Just a handful of big chains when this is over.

Banks warn that a $350B lending program for struggling small businesses won't be ready when it launches Friday because the Trump administration has failed to provide them with the necessary guidelines and set requirements for the loans that are unworkable https://t.co/Go2KzS5I7P

— POLITICO (@politico) April 2, 2020

“fuck you, pay me” in pandemic times https://t.co/QVKlSmA39p

— Chris Thompson (@MadBastardsAll) April 2, 2020

It's certainly devastating for anyone in this situation and I don't want to minimize that in any way... but I wonder if we're going to see an almost unprecedented amount of disruption and new small businesses spring up after this due to the sheer amount of opportunity out there.

That seems just as likely to me as big corporations being the only thing left to fill the gap to play in all of these spaces. There will certainly be less competition in some of the areas big companies are the leaders in today.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Yep. Everybody will be better off if everyone doesn't try to buy enough for two months (not saying people here are doing that, just in general). Where I'm at, supply of stuff is recovering pretty well. Bread and eggs were hard to come by two weeks ago, not anymore. TP is around occasionally, and potatoes that there was an initial run on. Flour, rice still a bit sketchy and a lot of things are lower than usual, but what I see is supply trending in the right direction.

I was out shopping yesterday for my extended “family”. I went to Costco first and got there right before the senior citizens hour was up. There was that line outside. We waited probably ten minutes before they let us in. Within 100 feet of of the door, there were two employees standing in front of 8 pallets of toilet paper. Each package contained 30 rolls and you could get one. Just about everything I was looking for was available and most things had options to choose from. Only posted limit I saw was for poultry. Of course there was no hand sanitizer, Clorox wipes etc. To everyone’s credit, most people were not being ridiculous when it came to quantities of most items. Most people had what I would consider normal amount of those items that have been critically short. I went to Winn Dixie next and it was about the same.

From what I hear about the local Publix, they are struggling to keep up. It is not surprising given it is the only food store within ten minutes of about 8-10 subdivisions.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by whomario

One sneaky hot seller here have been stuff like paint, garden tools and soil (up like 500%)




And that's the reason why there are shortages

Not saying there aren't issues in production/delivery but seeing some of the increases here (like an utterly insane 2500 % for canned goods or 150% increase on pasta) that'd be a loooot of extra man hours to make up for that.

I made myself a pasta sauce today from a base i bought when I was in Italy last year, and had the bizarre thought I was being extravagant using tinned tomatoes and planning to use pasta for 6-8 days over the next couple of weeks! It’s all supply and demand, but pasta and tinned tomatoes are suddenly luxury goods in some ways

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by whomario

Scored a pack of Toiletpaper for my neighbours today though, so i take this as a good sign

Dola: I’ve never paid attention to how long a roll lasts until now - turns out it’s nearly two weeks. Panic over, relax, which ironically enough means a toilet roll lasts slightly shorter than I’d thought

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by molson

Stubhub used to heavily promote it's "FanProtect Guarantee", which promised refunds on purchases if the event was cancelled or valid tickets weren't delivered. They've decided now that they can't do that anymore. So if you bought your tickets when that guarantee was in effect, you only get a Stubhub credit, which of course, isn't a particularly enticing thing right now.

I know Stubhub is just kind fucked now (and they just were acquired by a new buyer in February, oops!), but this is a lot of money to hold hostage.

The NBA, NHL, and MLB postponing rather than cancelling games adds to the complications. I have some NHL tickets I bought that I know I'll never see a penny from Stubhub for. Not the end of the world, it is what it is. I'm trying to decide if a chargeback is appropriate, and what the right timing for that would be. I understand we're all in this together, and I'm OK with taking my fair share of financial loss as a result of a global pandemic, but, letting me eat the entire $400 doesn't seem right either. And this is kind of what credit card warranties/consumer protection are for. (particularly when I bought the tickets under a promise of a refund if the event was cancelled). But I guess it's prudent to wait for the NHL to cancel the season, or until the chargeback time limit is counting down.

Double dola: If scalpers are a casualty of this, excuse me if don’t shed too many tears

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

This is going to wipe out small businesses around the country. All your local diners, barbers, etc that add to communities will be gone. Just a handful of big chains when this is over.

Banks warn that a $350B lending program for struggling small businesses won't be ready when it launches Friday because the Trump administration has failed to provide them with the necessary guidelines and set requirements for the loans that are unworkable https://t.co/Go2KzS5I7P

— POLITICO (@politico) April 2, 2020

“fuck you, pay me” in pandemic times https://t.co/QVKlSmA39p

— Chris Thompson (@MadBastardsAll) April 2, 2020

Triple (!) dola: Unfortunately that seems to be the case here too - the promised easy access is not quite as simple as promised

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

And the Captain is being relieved from duty for releasing the letter to the media.

He's a hero and should be a lesson to others in the Navy.

If only it was this simple.

Modly said Crozier was relieved because he went outside the chain of command and sent his memo over an unsecured system adding to the chances it could be leaked.

They are not saying he leaked it. They are saying by not sending it on a classified system, he created the circumstance that it could be leaked. They are also saying that he should have went to his boss and not his boss’s boss.

[Arles]

When people say we are going to be like Italy - is that in terms of cases? No one really knows there. I contend we have over 2 million cases in the US right now (maybe 1+ mil for Italy??).

In terms of deaths, that's just irresponsible to say that. We are much closer to Germany than Italy or Spain. It looks like Italy and Spain will be in the 1.0-1.5% rate once the real numbers come out. I'd be shocked if the US was over 0.7% (prob closer to 0.5%). There's just no reason to expect the rate to massively increase after the measures that have been put in place in most areas. But, time will tell. I still content Italy and Spain got a much nastier strain of the virus than the one that has made it to most of the US.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Arles

When people say we are going to be like Italy - is that in terms of cases? No one really knows there. I contend we have over 2 million cases in the US right now (maybe 1+ mil for Italy??).

In terms of deaths, that's just irresponsible to say that. We are much closer to Germany than Italy or Spain. It looks like Italy and Spain will be in the 1.0-1.5% rate once the real numbers come out. I'd be shocked if the US was over 0.7% (prob closer to 0.5%). There's just no reason to expect the rate to massively increase after the measures that have been put in place in most areas. But, time will tell. I still content Italy and Spain got a much nastier strain of the virus than the one that has made it to most of the US.

The strains are the same. The virus hasn't mutated much.

Italy got bad because it overwhelmed their health system. That's when the deaths start piling up. When you run out of beds, ventilators, and medical personnel. We have no idea if that will happen here. If New York keeps adding more patients and runs out of that stuff, the death toll soars.

[Brian Swartz]

I take a middle ground on that. I think it's the same strain, but I think Italy is more than it overwhelming their system, though that did have a major effect. There's cultural impacts too such as our population being more spread out, it being more prevalent for them to have elderly living with others, the fact that their population is just older on the whole, etc.

I don't think there's any question that some element of the shortages-induced deaths are coming here though. New York is close. Atlanta is close. New Orleans appears to be on the way, and Detroit probably not too far behind.

[RainMaker]

Yeah, it's kind of up in the air. I guess that's why models vary so much.

We have an elderly population too and not exactly the healthiest of countries. We also have (and will have a ton more) people without health insurance. Are those people going to get tested and eat a giant bill? Or stay and home and try to ride it out? Will those people have access to drugs that can help with the virus? Probably not.

We have our own set of issues and will see how they play out.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

If only it was this simple.



They are not saying he leaked it. They are saying by not sending it on a classified system, he created the circumstance that it could be leaked. They are also saying that he should have went to his boss and not his boss’s boss.

It is tough. He clearly did the right thing. He also clearly broke the chain of command.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The strains are the same. The virus hasn't mutated much.

It does seem to mutate much slower, but they've already found 7+ strains in the past week or so. We probably won't know until later, but it is a possibility that the version in southern Europe is more deadly than the one we have here.

Italy got bad because it overwhelmed their health system. That's when the deaths start piling up. When you run out of beds, ventilators, and medical personnel. We have no idea if that will happen here. If New York keeps adding more patients and runs out of that stuff, the death toll soars.

Italy's lifestyle and delay in responding also played a part. They are packed in together and often younger people live with older people. Add in they didn't start taking real steps until it had ravaged their country and you see why they are much different, IMO. New York is the closest because of mass transit and the number of people in a small area, so they will get hit the worst. But there are no indications it will be close to Italy's numbers.

Again, April will probably be the toughest month as the people that got it in March (before social distancing really took hold) and didn't seek immediate medical attention get worse. Hospitals will probably hit a high point in late April/early May - but there is no rational reason to expect the US to have anything comparable to Italy in two months. The geography, lifestyle and speed at which we started distancing plays a major factor here. Italy has 532 people per square mile, the US has 93. By dumb luck and geographical distance from each other, we would never be hit as hard at Italy.

[RainMaker]

To get a scope on how bad unemployment is.

The mammoth US unemployment claims in their historical context. pic.twitter.com/UNDwhBMpZt

— Ben Riley-Smith (@benrileysmith) April 2, 2020

[Arles]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

To get a scope on how bad unemployment is.

The mammoth US unemployment claims in their historical context. pic.twitter.com/UNDwhBMpZt

— Ben Riley-Smith (@benrileysmith) April 2, 2020

It's crazy and we've never seen anything like it. I don't know what the answer is (outside of more socialistic policies - we need them for this summer), but there is no way we can keep this up for more than a few months.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I take a middle ground on that. I think it's the same strain, but I think Italy is more than it overwhelming their system, though that did have a major effect. There's cultural impacts too such as our population being more spread out, it being more prevalent for them to have elderly living with others, the fact that their population is just older on the whole, etc.

I don't think there's any question that some element of the shortages-induced deaths are coming here though. New York is close. Atlanta is close. New Orleans appears to be on the way, and Detroit probably not too far behind.

And Dr Birx just said we are not flattening the curve still.

[Jas_lov]

We are not flattening the curve and not a damn thing will be done about it. Too many people not taking this seriously. More will die and it will take longer to get back to normal. If they can't get people to stay 6 feet apart they won't get them to wear masks.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by AlexB

It is tough. He clearly did the right thing. He also clearly broke the chain of command.

I don't think it's a tough call at all. This admin pardons war criminals while this Captain gets canned because he embarrassed his superiors in order to save his crew.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

We are not flattening the curve and not a damn thing will be done about it. Too many people not taking this seriously. More will die and it will take longer to get back to normal. If they can't get people to stay 6 feet apart they won't get them to wear masks.

That's the other thing. Two of our most populated states (Texas and Florida) only now just put a shelter-in-place. Most of the South has been loose. And some of those areas have really bad healthcare systems as it is (at least in comparison to Italy).

Hope I'm wrong but I have a bad feeling we are in store for some horrific times.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

That's the other thing. Two of our most populated states (Texas and Florida) only now just put a shelter-in-place. Most of the South has been loose. And some of those areas have really bad healthcare systems as it is (at least in comparison to Italy).

Hope I'm wrong but I have a bad feeling we are in store for some horrific times.

I agree. The red states are going to get overrun. The population down there likely didn't take it serious enough until it was too late. Some probably still don't take it seriously.

edited for lack of tact

[Arles]

All we can do is practice social distancing, stay home as much as possible, wears masks where possible and implore the government to do more to help small businesses and people out of work.

We will certainly know a lot more in a month - but stay home and try to avoid contact as much as possible until then.

[whomario]

Italy had under 50 deaths the day they put in place a much stricter lockdown than even New York, saying the us reacted faster seems a bit of a stretch ...
The 1000 deaths right now in the US were part of a much smaller 'pool' of infected people than the deaths that will occur in a week or 2 After that it will be reasonable to take stock (at least for some areas) but right now there is no indication the US is remotely at the peak of the curve. Even Italy got from 50 to 900 in fits and spurts with the ocasional decrease thrown in.

I am sure you will not see remotely similar per capita numbers (would be 5k) , but it will go up.

Same goes for Germany as well, it just is not possible right now to reliably prevent spread in hospitals and care facilities without rapid testing and antibody tests, neither of which is available in numbers yet.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Lathum

They are statistically poorer, fatter, and dumber.

Dad-gum!

I'll give you poorer and fatter but dumber? I like to see your reference, below is mine.

https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/w...e-opening.html

Nevertheless, we own football and proud patriots with 40-44% of the military.

[whomario]

Small sample size but of the patients that 'finished' their time on ventilators in Germany to date 34% died and 66% recovered ... That number will obviously shift for the better as most deaths while on one occur quickly and recovery takes a long time.

Two new studies at the 2 first 'hotspots' in Germany suggest that transmission via surfaces is really pretty much non-existent btw and more of a freak-accident than any real factor.

Aside from tracking the contacts and transmission networks* they also extensively tested all imaginable surfaces in houses with multiple currently infected people and even there could not detect reproducing/viable virus even on door handle or remote controlls. You'd really need someone to literally sneeze on a surface, touch it immediately after and then touch your face also pretty much immediately.

* In one case pretty much pinpointing it to a guy turning around in the Cafeteria and asking another to pass the salt. The majority of transmissions did occur during extended personal contact though, be it at work, private or public events. Most early cases in one Hotspot could be traced to a single carnival event.

[Lathum]

StackPath

[Edward64]

I see, I'll take mine reported by the Washingon Post vs yours reported by WalletHub (?).

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I see, I'll take mine reported by the Washingon Post vs yours reported by WalletHub (?).

FFS dude, here are the bottom 12 of your source

Florida 98.4
South Carolina 98.4
Georgia 98
Tennessee 97.7
Arkansas 97.5
Arizona 97.4
Nevada 96.5
Alabama 95.7
New Mexico 95.7
Hawaii 95.6
California 95.5
Louisiana 95.3
Mississippi 94.2

8/12 in the south. Not really sure how you disproved anything

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Galaril

And Dr Birx just said we are not flattening the curve still.

I don't know the context in which she said it, but it's obvious we are flattening the curve at least to some degree. There's no way that all the shutdown orders, all the unemployed people not working etc. is having no effect on the spread. You can't have that many people who would otherwhise be in close proximity to each other for several hours a day now almost completely separated and not flatten the curve.

[Lathum]

How is CNBC? Good enough for you?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/the-...s-in-2018.html

[whomario]

"not flattening" is of course wrong, but it is definitely not flattened enough yet. And that naturally takes time. This is like turning an Oil tanker.


One more thing:

Lol Fox invited on the wrong one. Good. pic.twitter.com/L2eIW3dfRr

— Adam wants to flatten the curve (@aalali44) April 2, 2020

That test by Abbott was presented as if it was going to solve testing problems, it does not. There is no magic wand, whatever improvements come will have to come from a variety of fronts.

As an aside, i doubt they'll invite him again

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Lathum

How is CNBC? Good enough for you?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/the-...s-in-2018.html

Uh no. The source is still WalletHub (?). WTF is WalletHub and why are they reputable?

Show me a study from a reputable source that actually says the South is dumber?


BTW - if you go by population, I think my link shows that CA as #47 on the IQ list has less-than-stellar-smart-people than the smaller southern states.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by whomario

Italy had under 50 deaths the day they put in place a much stricter lockdown than even New York, saying the us reacted faster seems a bit of a stretch ...
The 1000 deaths right now in the US were part of a much smaller 'pool' of infected people than the deaths that will occur in a week or 2 After that it will be reasonable to take stock (at least for some areas) but right now there is no indication the US is remotely at the peak of the curve. Even Italy got from 50 to 900 in fits and spurts with the ocasional decrease thrown in.

March 9th is when they expanded past Lombardy to cover Northern Italy. At that point, they had 463 deaths and over 9K recorded cases. On March 20, NY announced its shelter in place with 43 deaths and around 5,500 cases. On the day it began (3/22), they had 99 deaths. Heck, there were less than 450 recorded deaths in the entire US when most of the big cities started their shelter in place in the US (3/22). Factor in the reasons above about a more spread out country with less mass transit, fewer older and young living together, etc and there is reason to think the US won't be nearly as bad as Italy.

It's going to get worse in the US, but hospitals weren't being flooded in mass like in Spain/Italy when we started our measures. We also had the benefit of Italy as a warning (something Italy didn't have on their end).

[Lathum]

Whatever dude. Not really worth the argument. If you want to think people in Miss, Alabama, KY, and Louisiana are geniuses so be it.