WW CXXXIX - The Red Death II - GAME OVER, SERVANTS WIN

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Not sure how me seeing Narc get converted ties into any role that Narc had or didn't have. I don't remember seeing anywhere in the rules that the sherrif is the only character that can be converted.

Narc seems to have accomplished just what the wolves wanted. They have the village running in the wrong direction.

Maybe, but Narc could have had us lynch a villager yesterday instead of a wolf if we believe your perspective. That makes your version especially hard to swallow.

[EagleFan]

vote mau

I'm, being framed and he is in the middle of it. Why on earth reveal at this point that you are the sherrif when there is no heat on you and nothing to gain by revealing. Other than trying to sneak into the CoT.

He's saying that he will self protect tonight which gives him the excuse of why he is still around tomorrow. Then tomorrow he will say that he didn't self protect, buying him another day to keep us from questioning him.

Quite convenient.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

But why hasn't someone come forward to admit using the Scroll of Wrath on EF yesterday? Why wouldn't a villager want to help us connect the dots on this?

Because the wolves don't want it known that they are trying to frame me, or who is part of it?

[The Jackal]

No one is framing you EF, you did a good job of that yourself. I don't really know why mau chose his timing to reveal, if anything it's going to give him more heat than he would have otherwise. Probably would've preferred the sheriff to stay quiet and just keep guarding himself or people he thinks are targets instead of forcing us to decide if he's actually the sheriff.

[The Jackal]

If the wolves wanted you dead they just would have done it yesterday themselves, I'd think.

[EagleFan]

Either way you will lose nothing but a detective who hasn't done a good job this game. Good luck sorting out the sherrif debacle. I'll check back in later but I've already said what I have to say. Doubt that anything that I say will convince you.

Okay, I'll say one more thing. If I can get on with enough time tonight I will read through the thread more closely (like I do when I actually have time to play). I will tell you my gut feeling on who I think the wolf (wolves?) are based on posts (since I couldn't investigate anyone last night). If I see something I will mention it. If nothing else maybe I can contribute by leaving you something to look over after killing a villager today.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

If the wolves wanted you dead they just would have done it yesterday themselves, I'd think.

Why? If the village is about to lynch another villager you don't night kill that person.

[EagleFan]

Okay, now I am out for the afternoon.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

?

I don't think there's "no correlation". EF claimed to see narc getting converted. So you feel he truly was converted, but was some other role? If so, you believe Mauboy's claim? Or you think there's another sheriff out there somewhere?

And none of this explains why Narc would vote himself over EF, if EF is good.

I can't imagine that both Commo and Mauboy are bad, though I guess it's possible, 6 wolves, maybe 2 or 3 converts there. But these guys are working pretty hard to paint EF as good against all odds. Or in Mauboy's case, paint himself good and give no real reason why he didn't want to vote him.

On phone now, so won't get too lengthy, but they don't have to be correlated. Why did narc need to have a role as a villager to get one as a convert. As for sticking up for EF I do think after last night he is probably 95% likely to be a wolf now and stated so yesterday.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Why? If the village is about to lynch another villager you don't night kill that person.

I don't mean via night kill, I mean they would have just let Narcizo leave his vote on you and have you be dead first, then kill Narcizo. Either way it's two days of lynching. Don't see how this benefits the wolves, really.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If he posted/voted after Narc's reveal, that is pretty damning. I was wondering if Mau was getting cute in this spot.

This is why I didn't want to rush to Nightfall today. Stuff has a way of happening that makes you want to take a look at events, even if you think it is open/shut.

Don't play dumb Hoops. It doesn't do you any favors. I quoted every Mau post from that day and laid them out in order. It isn't like it takes a lot of work to scroll up about 10 posts and read them.

He clearly supported Narc, said he sounded legit and questioned the logic of lynching our BG. The real BG doesn't do that.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

But why hasn't someone come forward to admit using the Scroll of Wrath on EF yesterday? Why wouldn't a villager want to help us connect the dots on this?

As I said yesterday. It is a wolf power, not an item. I'm very certain of this.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Don't play dumb Hoops. It doesn't do you any favors. I quoted every Mau post from that day and laid them out in order. It isn't like it takes a lot of work to scroll up about 10 posts and read them.

He clearly supported Narc, said he sounded legit and questioned the logic of lynching our BG. The real BG doesn't do that.

I was still catching up in posts at that time and had not yet read where you captured everything he posted.

I agree 100% with you that mauboy's posts/votes do not connect with the story he is giving us. My question right now is what do we want to do about it today? Try to create a mauboy/EF tie? Stick with the EF vote? Switch to mauboy? If the plan is to stick with EF vote, why that over trying to create a tie like we did yesterday?

FWIW, this isn't just a question to Dubb but to everyone active in the thread.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by dubb93

As I said yesterday. It is a wolf power, not an item. I'm very certain of this.

But Thomkal was pretty certain that it was an item, not a power.

Either way, what benefit did it give the wolves to use a power on their own? Has it succeeded in creating any meaningful doubt among our numbers? I'm just trying to understand the logic around it and haven't come up with an answer I think is particularly good just yet.

[The Jackal]

My only hesitation with that hoops is just if they are both villagers who didn't play their roles very well/were distracted by outside things. Chances are high they are both lying, but if they are both villagers and we take them both out we're gonna be up shit's creek.

[The Jackal]

I don't understand really why mau revealed today if he's actually the sheriff or a wolf, it doesn't seem to make sense for either play.

[The Jackal]

I guess if he's a wolf he figured revealing before he was under pressure would buy him some trust instead of revealing when he could possibly have been under heat for being a post-D3 convert, but I'm still confused.

[J23]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

My only hesitation with that hoops is just if they are both villagers who didn't play their roles very well/were distracted by outside things. Chances are high they are both lying, but if they are both villagers and we take them both out we're gonna be up shit's creek.

Is there any result tonight that will have you not looking at mau tomorrow for lynching? I'm fine with there being a tie between them if we can pull it off, but it's probably going to be harder to pull off than last night.

UNVOTE NIGHTFALL
UNVOTE EAGLEFAN
VOTE MAUBOY1

[Autumn]

This seems a much dicier play than yesterday, when it seemed clear we had two wolves. Putting up a sure shot again a good guess, and then possibly letting EF squeak out of a lynch doesn't seem good. Narc killed himself rather than EF, I have to think EF has the only wolf kill left, or has some other power that the wolves really want in the game. I don't want to give him an opportunity to make it another day.

[Chief Rum]

Haha... I suggested the tie a couple hours ago after mau's BS came to be revealed, but I was kinda joking with all the angst it caused yesterday. Maybe we oughta run this one by Common?

UNVOTE NIGHTFALL
UNVOTE EAGLEFAN
VOTE MAUBOY1

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

This seems a much dicier play than yesterday, when it seemed clear we had two wolves. Putting up a sure shot again a good guess, and then possibly letting EF squeak out of a lynch doesn't seem good. Narc killed himself rather than EF, I have to think EF has the only wolf kill left, or has some other power that the wolves really want in the game. I don't want to give him an opportunity to make it another day.

I honestly view mau and EF as equally likely to be wolves. IMO, it doesn't matter if we're successful or not, someone who deserves to be lynched will be lynched.

And if we're lucky, they'll both be lynched.

[Autumn]

Keep in mind we have 11 voters today. So not only do you have to arrange a tie, but someone would have to not vote, or vote elsewhere.

I would call this plan "getting a little too clever".

[J23]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Keep in mind we have 11 voters today. So not only do you have to arrange a tie, but someone would have to not vote, or vote elsewhere.

I would call this plan "getting a little too clever".

If we're off by a vote, one of the two we're trying to lynch at the same time is killed and we address the 2nd one tomorrow, just like yesterday.

[dubb93]

I've been all for ties but this one is risky. I don't think we can afford to miss on EF today. The wolves clearly IMO want EF around. That means he is dangerous. While I agree tomorrow is going to be a run on Mau I'm afraid us whiffing on EF today b/c the wolves posture to vote Mau would be terrible for us.

That said if the village wants to do a tie I would reluctantly agree to the idea. I just have serious reservations about this one today.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by J23

If we're off by a vote, one of the two we're trying to lynch at the same time is killed and we address the 2nd one tomorrow, just like yesterday.

Except yesterday the wolves hadn't moved to protect EF. We had less information. Today it is clear the wolves are going out of there way to make sure EF sticks around. That means he is powerful. If we whiff on him it could be bad.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I've been all for ties but this one is risky. I don't think we can afford to miss on EF today. The wolves clearly IMO want EF around. That means he is dangerous. While I agree tomorrow is going to be a run on Mau I'm afraid us whiffing on EF today b/c the wolves posture to vote Mau would be terrible for us.

That said if the village wants to do a tie I would reluctantly agree to the idea. I just have serious reservations about this one today.

Finally we can agree! lol

[J23]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I've been all for ties but this one is risky. I don't think we can afford to miss on EF today. The wolves clearly IMO want EF around. That means he is dangerous. While I agree tomorrow is going to be a run on Mau I'm afraid us whiffing on EF today b/c the wolves posture to vote Mau would be terrible for us.

That said if the village wants to do a tie I would reluctantly agree to the idea. I just have serious reservations about this one today.

If he's the big bad with uberpowers, why would they have wrath'd him yesterday?

With Narc unable do nightkills unless he was the last wolf, I'm not convinced that EF has to be any more dangerous than other wolves for them to sacrifice Narc in that spot.

[hoopsguy]

OK, then lets see if we can get EF done today and we'll move ahead tomorrow with whatever new information emerges.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by J23

If he's the big bad with uberpowers, why would they have wrath'd him yesterday?

With Narc unable do nightkills unless he was the last wolf, I'm not convinced that EF has to be any more dangerous than other wolves for them to sacrifice Narc in that spot.

I'd think there are at least two wolves left, just going by the numbers game. 5 after conversions seems about right, if even a little low.

[mauchow]

Are you kidding me?

I'm done posting. If u wanna Lynch me fine. Do it tomorrow. This is ridiculous. Wolves are setting this one up.

I will seriously be pissed off if I die today.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by J23

If he's the big bad with uberpowers, why would they have wrath'd him yesterday?

With Narc unable do nightkills unless he was the last wolf, I'm not convinced that EF has to be any more dangerous than other wolves for them to sacrifice Narc in that spot.

I can't fully explain that other than to say the wolves have made several strange calls this game IMO. My expectation was they were going for exactly what EF called them on when he posted today. Something along the lines of "I've been set up, why would I do that to myself."

If you are out in the open the best way to conceal yourself as a wolf is to create confusion. Mission accomplished here.

[Autumn]

mckerney votes EF 3030
commo votes EF 3039
thomkal votes EF 3046
thomkal votes nightfall 3046
jackal votes EF 3049
J23 votes EF 3053
chief votes EF 3057
chief votes nightfall 3057
autumn vote EF 3059
autumn votes nightfall 3059
jakcal votes nightfall 3063
mauboy votes autumn 3070
chief unvotes nightfall 3079
jakcal unvotes nightfall 3081
J23 votes nightfall 3104
chief votes nightfall 3105
jackal votes nightfall 3110
dubb votes EF 3113
dubb votes nightfall 3116
mauboy unvotes autumn 3141
mauboy votes EF 3141
mauboy votes nightfall 3141
EF votes mauboy 3152
J23 unvotes nightfall 3168
J23 unvotes EF 3168
J23 votes Mauboy 3168
chief unvotes nightfall 3170
chief unvotes eF 3170
Chief votes mauboy 3170
hoops votes EF 3178

8 EagleFan - mckerney, commo, thomkal, jackal, autumn, dubb, mauboy, hoops
3 mauboy - eaglefan, J23, chief

7 nightfall - thomkal, autumn, jackal, dubb, mauboy

[Autumn]

oops, obviously the nightfall nubmer is not correct, but the names are

[J23]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I can't fully explain that other than to say the wolves have made several strange calls this game IMO. My expectation was they were going for exactly what EF called them on when he posted today. Something along the lines of "I've been set up, why would I do that to myself."

If you are out in the open the best way to conceal yourself as a wolf is to create confusion. Mission accomplished here.

I agree with your thoughts here, but my point is that EF doesn't have to be the head wolf for Narc to have jumped on his sword yesterday.

It's the same situation we were in yesterday in so much as we're going to pile on EF today and mauboy tomorrow basically no matter what happens at this point I think. It was the same w/ EF and Narc yesterday. Going for the tie today gives us a chance of saving a day.

If the majority think it's not worth attempting the tie, and that EF is much more dangerous than mau, I'll go along, but I think it's worth trying for the tie today personally.

[Thomkal]

well unlike yesterday, I don't think we should be going for a tie today. Because unlike Narc and Eaglefan there's Bug's view of him on day 3 as being a Lightbringer. So that would mean Mauboy is a conversion if he's a Servant. (or had the charm against detection in his possession). Thus he's likely to not be as powerful as the starting Servants and I'd rather go after them first.

While I find Mauboy's reveal itself questionable, I find the timing of it to be very odd if he really is a Servant. I mean think about it. If EagleFan is a Servant like we believe and hope-why put another of their kind on the chopping board for the next day? That would be five Servants gone, and there just can't be many more left-one for sure and at the most two. Maybe they didn't anticipate dubb going through Mauboy's posts so thoroughly and finding some questionable actions if he knew Narc was lying about his sheriff claim. Plus Mauboy was already semi-cleared by the seer-better to risk an uncleared with such a role claim in my opinion.

So unlike EagleFan's attempts to explain his mistakes, I think its possible Mauboy just played his role differently than many of us would have. There's a lot more doubt here, enough for me to want to go after just EagleFan with the lynch today than take the risk of lynching a potential Sheriff.

[Thomkal]

Also something has been bothering me for a while-why aren't Jackal and Mauboy dead yet? Both seer-cleared, they make much better targets for the Servants, especially as we get nearer to the end of the game and they need more uncleared suspects.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Are you kidding me?

I'm done posting. If u wanna Lynch me fine. Do it tomorrow. This is ridiculous. Wolves are setting this one up.

I will seriously be pissed off if I die today.

I don't think you are going to die today. But why did you reveal? Why tell the wolves who the BG is? It's not like you have information that helps us figure out who they are. Why distract the conversation from EF? You brought this heat down upon yourself, no one set you up.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Also something has been bothering me for a while-why aren't Jackal and Mauboy dead yet? Both seer-cleared, they make much better targets for the Servants, especially as we get nearer to the end of the game and they need more uncleared suspects.

Because we're just as prime conversion targets as the other remaining players and the wolves would rather take out roled people than people who claim to be vanillas. Better play to let the village sort out for themselves who they think has been converted, and leaving me/mau around decreases the odds of us being right if it comes down to guesswork.

Plus I went crazy on D2 and I think I annoyed enough people that the wolves view me as easier to make into a lynch target.

[The Jackal]

With a game with the potential for multiple conversions, people being seer cleared only clears them at the time, not for the whole game. Plus I think there's been mention of items that might block scans, so seer clears aren't nearly as good in this game as others.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Also something has been bothering me for a while-why aren't Jackal and Mauboy dead yet? Both seer-cleared, they make much better targets for the Servants, especially as we get nearer to the end of the game and they need more uncleared suspects.

Mau having been converted would explain why he wasn't taken out as well as not revealing to save Bug. The other reason I can think of is that they were hunting for what they considered more important roles.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Maybe they didn't anticipate dubb going through Mauboy's posts so thoroughly and finding some questionable actions if he knew Narc was lying about his sheriff claim. Plus Mauboy was already semi-cleared by the seer-better to risk an uncleared with such a role claim in my opinion.

Well if he is a wolf and they didn't anticipate that then it is on them. Save last game where I couldn't go back and check b/c of multiple threads that is my usual MO no matter if I am villager or wolf. If he is a wolf they clearly should have killed me prior to trying that reveal.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Also something has been bothering me for a while-why aren't Jackal and Mauboy dead yet? Both seer-cleared, they make much better targets for the Servants, especially as we get nearer to the end of the game and they need more uncleared suspects.

Who has been killed since bug revealed who he scanned?
N4 - dzilla, exorcist
N5 - SnD, detective
N6 - grammaticus, vanilla

So they went after two revealed roles and then were either BG hunting, if mau is telling the truth and the BG is still out there, or taking a shot at someone they felt had good trust.

[mauchow]

I will add one last thing.. I revealed knowing that I did nothing good for the village however my intentions were that I wouldn't get lynched. If I get lynched it will make my move look good. I believer there are wolves coordinating this thing to get a double Lynch. We can't afford to screw up royally and have extra votes cost us and have me lynched by myself. The way it went down yesterday should surely stray people away from ties. Too many unknowns.

If I die...sigh times a million.


I am being treated poorly. I've never been the bg before so I'm playing the role the way I oh

[Autumn]

I'm going to be off dealing with the kids for the majority of the next few hours. Should definitely be back on before deadline.

[mauchow]

Stupid phone...

I was saying I think the wolves are trying to push the tie not setting me up.

[The Jackal]

Eh, I don't think there's going to be a tie. I'm not going to vote for one, since I still have this nagging feeling that one or both of you are good. If it is a case of villagers screwing up (which is not unheard of), I don't want to lose two at once.

[J23]

Well, I'm one of the more vocal people calling for a tie vote today. I think most of the village is ready to lynch you tomorrow for the extremely odd timing of your reveal along w/ your voting on the day Bug got lynched, and I think it's better to only allow for one nightkill as opposed to two to lynch EF and you. If you want to take that as wolfish behavior, feel free.

[J23]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

If it is a case of villagers screwing up (which is not unheard of), I don't want to lose two at once.

If EF is lynched today and ends up being good, do you still vote mau tomorrow?

If EF is lynched today and ends up bad, do you still vote mau tomorrow?

In both cases, I'm pretty sure my answer is yes, so we're still lynching two villagers if they're both good. We're just allowing for an extra nightkill if we don't lynch them both at once.

[The Jackal]

I don't know if I vote mau tomorrow in any situation, if he seems like the best bet than I will but I want to analyze what he said today/what he did the other day more closely.

[Thomkal]

if both Eaglefan and Narc are both Servants, I'm going to believe mauboy's claim more. I mean that's three straight days the Servants will have been lynched if Mauboy turns out to be one too-I would think they would want the attention off them tomorrow, not additional attention given what's happened the last two days. To try a fake reveal at this point just seems to be the wrong decision here at this point in the game if this is what the Servants are trying here.